2025 年 12 月 01 日 大股票池配置仍偏价值，PPI 关注度 升至最高 ——量化资产配置月报 202512 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 ⚫ 大股票池配置仍偏价值。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济出现回升、流动性略偏紧，信用 指标略好，微观映射中经济（盈利预期）继续向上但强度未触发修正，而流动性、信用都 修正为偏弱，因此宏观各维度的方向为经济好转、流动性偏弱和信用收缩。本期我们主要 按照对经济敏感、对信用不敏感来选择得分前三的因子，成长的宏观得分偏低，宏观部分 选择以价值、低波为主；沪深 300、中证 500 中价值都为共振因子，中证 500 中不再配 置成长，而中证 1000 成长得分仍靠前。 ⚫ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the petrochemical industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [16]. Core Insights - Natural gas demand is expected to recover in 2026 after a significant slowdown in 2025, with global demand growth projected at 2% [6][10]. - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with improved outlooks for companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [16]. - Oil prices are expected to stabilize, with a neutral outlook for 2026, while companies like China Petroleum and CNOOC are recommended for their high dividend yields [16]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - Global natural gas demand growth for 2025 is projected at only 0.5%, primarily driven by Europe, while Asian demand remains flat [6]. - In 2026, demand growth is expected to recover to 2%, with Asia-Pacific leading the increase at around 5% [6][10]. - Current low inventory levels in Europe and Japan are anticipated to support relatively strong gas prices during the heating season [8]. Oil Market - Brent crude oil prices have shown a slight increase, closing at $63.20 per barrel, while WTI prices reached $58.55 per barrel [20]. - The report notes a decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the U.S., indicating a potential slowdown in production growth [29]. - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 790,000 barrels per day in 2025, with the U.S., China, and Nigeria being the main contributors [42]. Petrochemical Sector - The downstream polyester sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with recommendations for companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [16]. - The report indicates that the refining sector is seeing improved margins, with domestic refining margins increasing by 244 RMB/ton month-on-month [50]. - Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia have stabilized, while the price spread between ethylene and naphtha has increased, indicating favorable conditions for ethylene production [59][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [3]. Core Insights - Natural gas demand is expected to recover, with short-term price stability anticipated due to low inventory levels during the heating season of 2025-2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global natural gas demand growth of 2% in 2026, with Asia-Pacific demand potentially reaching 5% [5][6][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a mixed trend, with oil prices showing a slight increase while drilling day rates for self-elevating platforms are rising. Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.20 per barrel, reflecting a 1.02% increase week-on-week [5][23]. - The refining sector is seeing a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are increasing. The Singapore refining margin for major products dropped to $19.61 per barrel, a decrease of $7.03 from the previous week [5][60]. - The polyester sector is witnessing a mixed performance, with PTA profitability rising while polyester filament profitability is declining. The PTA price in East China averaged 4625 RMB per ton, down 0.04% week-on-week [5][57]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.20 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.02%. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose to 427 million barrels, up 2.78 million barrels from the previous week [5][23][25]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 544, down 10 rigs week-on-week and 38 rigs year-on-year [34][37]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was reported at $19.61 per barrel, down $7.03 from the previous week. The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $17.96 per barrel, slightly up from the previous week [5][60][65]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price in Asia was reported at $827.37 per ton, down 0.22% week-on-week. The PTA-PX spread increased to 266.40 USD/ton, up 7.05 USD/ton from the previous week [5][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in profitability [5][18].

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, indicating significant development potential for this sector. The market for public REITs in China is estimated to exceed 10 trillion yuan, with the current market size at 219.9 billion yuan, of which commercial real estate accounts for 130.9 billion yuan [12][27]. - The planned commercial real estate REITs will create a multi-tiered market for asset securitization, which will help to broaden financing channels for enterprises, optimize capital structures, and facilitate strategic transformations from developers to asset managers [12][27]. - The commercial real estate REITs are seen as a key practice for constructing a new development model in the real estate sector, focusing on quality and sustainability rather than mere quantity [12][27]. Group 2: Internet and Media Industry - Core consumer brands in the internet and media sector, such as gaming companies and lifestyle brands, are currently trading at a PE ratio below 20x for 2026, indicating a high margin of safety for investors. The structural consumption trend among young users in China remains a significant growth driver [11][12]. - The gaming sector is experiencing a demographic shift, with Generation Z users making up 65% of the market, and there is untapped potential in female-oriented gaming content. Companies like Giant Network are expected to benefit from this trend [11][12]. - The music industry is also highlighted as a growth area, with stable demand for subscription services among young users, and companies are expected to enhance their bargaining power in the face of a fragmented rights market [15]. Group 3: Energy Sector - Guangzhou Development (600098.SH) is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider, with a diversified business model covering electricity, energy logistics, gas, and renewable energy. The company reported a net profit of 2.159 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [14][19]. - The company has a strong dividend history, with a payout ratio consistently above 50% over the past three years, and plans to increase dividends further in 2025 [14][19]. - The energy sector is expected to benefit from stable pricing in coal and gas power generation, with ongoing projects set to enhance profitability [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [3][13] Core Insights - Meituan reported Q3 2025 revenue of Rmb95.5 billion, a 2.0% year-on-year increase, but below consensus expectations of Rmb97.5 billion. The operating profit was Rmb-19.76 billion, significantly lower than Rmb13.69 billion in the same period last year [8][9] - The report indicates that industry competition has peaked, with core local commerce experiencing significant losses in Q3 but expected sequential improvement in Q4. Core local commerce revenue declined by 2.8% year-on-year to Rmb67.4 billion, with an operating margin of -20.9% [9][10] - Meituan Instashopping achieved strong growth, leading the industry, with a focus on enhancing supply and user engagement. The platform launched "Branded Flagship InstaMart," which saw a 300% sales increase on its first day during the "11.11" shopping event [10][11] - New initiatives showed improved profitability, with revenue from new initiatives rising 15.9% year-on-year to Rmb28.0 billion, although operating losses widened to Rmb1.3 billion. Keeta, a new initiative, achieved profitability in Hong Kong ahead of schedule [11][12] Financial Summary - For 2023, Meituan's revenue is projected at Rmb276.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.8%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be Rmb23.3 billion [6][16] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to Rmb-16.6 billion, reflecting the impact of intensified competition on short-term margins [13][16] - The report anticipates a long-term recovery in profitability, with a projected revenue of Rmb365.98 billion in 2025 and Rmb485.30 billion by 2027 [6][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a favorable investment rating to the company, with an AHP score of 3.49 and 3.12, placing it in the upper tier of the AHP model within the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in high-performance GPU development, with a fully autonomous R&D and production capability, and a product matrix that integrates both hardware and software [11][15]. - The company has established a comprehensive ecosystem termed "1+6+X," focusing on various vertical industries and rapidly expanding its market presence [19][20]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power, with significant investments aimed at enhancing its GPU offerings and market share [22][23]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The AHP score indicates a strong position within the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with scores reflecting a favorable ranking [2][7]. Company Fundamentals and Highlights - The founding team has a strong background from international firms, enabling breakthroughs in high-performance GPU technology [11]. - The product structure is evolving towards high-end offerings, with the training and inference integrated products accounting for 98% of revenue in Q1 2025 [11][12]. - The company has developed a proprietary software stack, MXMACA, which supports a wide range of applications and enhances compatibility with existing ecosystems [17][18]. Financial Comparison with Peers - The company has a smaller revenue scale compared to peers, with continuous losses, but has maintained a higher gross margin than the average of comparable companies [27][31]. - R&D expenditures have been significant, with rates exceeding those of comparable firms, reflecting a commitment to innovation [35][36]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to use raised funds for the development of new high-performance GPUs and AI inference chips, aiming to strengthen its market position [39][41]. - The anticipated projects include the second and third generation of general-purpose GPUs, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the AI market [41][42].

Group 1: Economic Stimulus in Japan - The economic stimulus plan introduced by Prime Minister Kishi is valued at 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), exceeding market expectations of 17 trillion yen[2] - The plan allocates 55% (11.7 trillion yen) for inflation subsidies and social welfare, 34% (7.2 trillion yen) for strategic industry investments, and 8% (1.7 trillion yen) for defense and diplomacy[3] - Japan's fiscal deficit rate is projected to rise significantly to 2.8% in 2026, with an increase of 1.77 percentage points, compared to 1.0% for the US and 0.84% for Germany[18] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation - The fiscal stimulus is expected to boost Japan's GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026, which is lower than the contributions expected from the US (0.6 points) and Germany (0.63 points)[23] - Temporary inflation subsidies may reduce the overall CPI growth by 0.7 percentage points in early 2026, but could increase core inflation pressures in the medium term[27] - The combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy may lead to a reversal of carry trade, with the USD/JPY exchange rate reaching a low of 157.9 recently[4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - In the week following the announcement, major equity indices rose, with the S&P 500 increasing by 3.7% and the Nasdaq by 4.9%[5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.7% to 99.44, while gold prices surged by 3.4% to 4223.9 USD per ounce[5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 4.0 basis points to 4.02%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment following the economic developments[5]

权 益 量 化 研 究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 价量匹配改善，情绪指标维持震荡 ——量化择时周报 20251130 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com | 1．情绪模型观点：市场情绪得分周内继续回落 4 | | --- | | 1.1 从分项指标出发：价量匹配改善、主力资金回流，情绪指标维持震 | | 荡、分化 5 | | 2．其他择时模型观点：美容护理短期得分快速提升，价值风 | | 格与小盘风格占优 10 | | 2.1 美容护理行业短期得分快速提升，价值风格与小盘风格占优 10 | | 3．风险提示 14 | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共15页 简单金融 成就梦想 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪得分周内继续回落： ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating based on the AHP score of 2.37, placing the company in the lower-middle tier of the AHP model distribution [4][8]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the "communication + automotive + satellite" three-pronged strategy, primarily developing RF front-end chips, RF SoC chips, and other analog chips, with over 80% of its revenue coming from RF front-end products [4][11]. - The company has broken the 5G RF front-end monopoly, ranking among the top three domestic manufacturers, and has achieved large-scale production of L-PAMiD products for mainstream brand clients, marking a significant milestone in domestic RF front-end capabilities [11][16]. - The company is expanding into the automotive and satellite communication sectors, with a projected market growth in automotive RF front-end applications from $400 million in 2024 to $900 million by 2030, and satellite communication market penetration expected to rise from 5% to around 10% by 2025 [17][18]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The AHP score for the company is calculated at 2.37, indicating a position in the 38.7% percentile of the AHP model, suggesting a lower-middle tier ranking [4][8]. New Stock Fundamentals Highlights - The company is a leader in the domestic RF front-end chip market, with a significant focus on 5G, 4G, 3G, and 2G RF front-end chip products, and has achieved a market share of over 30% in high-end mobile devices [11][12]. - The company has successfully launched multiple RF modules, including L-PAMiD, L-PAMiF, and others, across various communication standards, achieving large-scale sales with major brands [16][18]. Comparable Company Financial Metrics - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.88% in revenue from 2022 to 2024, although it remains below the average of comparable companies [27][26]. - The gross margin has improved from 17.06% in 2022 to 22.62% in 2025 H1, but it still lags behind the average of comparable firms [32][34]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to use the proceeds from its IPO for projects focused on 5G RF front-end chip and module R&D, RF SoC R&D, and the construction of its headquarters and R&D center [41][42]. - The implementation of these projects is expected to enhance the company's innovation capabilities and improve its product competitiveness in the market [41].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 30 日 发改委持续推进"反内卷"进程， 多地 MDI 停车检修致价格上涨， 钾肥进口大合同同比持稳 看好 ——《化工周报 25/11/24-25/11/28》 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提 ...