Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are generally bearish, with expected increases in supply and weak market performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 01 contract of the main cotton is expected to have a short - term weak rebound. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [4]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption in September [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The national cotton output is expected to reach 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have different data for the 25/26 annual output, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC9 monthly report shows a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA9 monthly report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 25/26 annual data shows a production of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,664, and the basis is 1344 (01 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in October of the 25/26 annual period to be 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is about to pass, the market is sluggish, and textile and clothing exports in September are weak. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. The main 01 contract will have a short - term weak rebound [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global production in the 25/26 annual period is 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; the total consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 25/26 annual period, the global production is 2.590 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); the consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 annual period, the production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-16原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：美国高级官员周三抨击中国大幅扩大稀土出口管制对全球供应链构成威胁，但表示中国政 府仍有可能改变立场，避免华盛顿采取措施与中国脱钩；美国总统特朗普表示，印度总理莫迪已承诺 停止从俄罗斯购买石油，特朗普并称，下一步他将努力让中国也采取同样的行动；IEA月报显示，随着 大量原油运输船驶向全球主要的石油交易和储存中心，全球石油库存即将回升，石油市场面临的供应 过剩局面将比先前预期更为严峻；中性 2.基差：10月15日，阿曼原油现货价为63.16/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为62.15元/桶，基差28.9 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, and may bottom - out and rebound to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium - term. The LH2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double reduction in supply and demand, and pig prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and may bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on US and Canadian pork imports boost market confidence. After the festivals, the market has a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the short - term enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter. The double - reduction in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - The pig spot price has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a medium - term range - bound pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh - meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, large - scale farms in China have started to reduce slaughter, and it is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will decrease this week. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Demand**: The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but after the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 10,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 1,225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are increasing [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch [12]. - In the future, it is expected that supply will increase in the next month, demand will strengthen, and inventory may decrease. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,820 - 73,620 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,330 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily decrease; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 75,178 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily. The recycling end has a lower production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has a sufficient profit - making space and strong production motivation [9]. - **Basis**: On October 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries are provided, including their current values, previous values, changes, and change rates. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5.98% [15]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: Information on weekly and monthly operating rates, production costs, production profits, production volumes, export and import volumes, and supply - demand balances of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products is presented [18][19]. - **Price and Inventory Trends**: The report shows the price trends of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products, as well as the inventory trends of lithium carbonate in different periods and from different sources [21][25][31]. - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: The cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds, such as purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are analyzed [45][47][50]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, are presented [52]. - **Demand Analysis**: The report provides information on the demand for lithium batteries, including battery prices, production volumes, shipments, and exports, as well as the demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles [56][61][71][79].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **豆粕 (M2601)**: Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is waiting for new guidance from China - US trade negotiations and harvest weather. In China, low - price buying and technical adjustments support the market, but high imports and spot price discounts limit the upside. Overall, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **大豆 (A2601)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 3960 and 4060. The US soybean market has similar uncertainties as above. In China, the cost - advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports prices, but high imports and expected domestic soybean production growth suppress the market. It will be affected by China - US trade and import volumes in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **豆粕**: Oscillates weakly in the futures market, with relatively stable spot prices and a slightly narrowing spot discount. The oil mill's soybean processing volume has declined from a high level, and the August bean meal production increased year - on - year. Downstream procurement has slightly decreased, while提货量 remains high. The spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly [23][25][27]. - **大豆**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand is positive. However, Brazilian soybean production and expected domestic soybean yield growth are negative factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on harvest, imports, and trade negotiations. - China's imported soybean arrivals remain high in October. The oil mill's bean meal inventory has declined from a high level in October. The demand for bean meal has weakened in October due to reduced pig - farming profits, but the market is still oscillating due to trade uncertainties [13]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Concerns - **豆粕**: Positive factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure in domestic oil mills, and uncertain US soybean weather. Negative factors are high October arrivals of imported soybeans and expected US soybean harvest and high yields. The main focus is on US soybean harvest weather and China - US trade tariff games [14]. - **大豆**: Positive factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand. Negative factors are Brazilian soybean production and expected domestic soybean yield growth. The main focus is on US soybean weather and China - US trade tariff games [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - consumption ratio fluctuating [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - consumption ratio also fluctuating [33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Information on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 is provided, including percentages at different time points [34][35][38]. - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: Data from March - September 2025 shows changes in planting area, yield, production, end - of - period inventory, exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [43]. 3.5 Position Data - **豆粕**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - **大豆**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in, but overall, the market has a bearish bias [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices closed lower, with the International Energy Agency warning of a supply glut next year and ongoing Sino - US trade tensions, causing fuel oil to continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. The spot fundamentals have relatively sufficient supply, and shipping demand is uncertain under the background of the Sino - US trade war, failing to provide upward momentum. - It is expected that FU2601 will operate in the range of 2680 - 2720, and LU2512 will operate in the range of 3150 - 3200 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian region may maintain sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and a continuous and stable inflow of high - sulfur goods from Russia. The recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil refining margins has curbed refinery raw material demand. The premium of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil terminal delivery term contracts declined in October due to sufficient inventory and insufficient demand. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 24 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 8 was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. - High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: None mentioned. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; sanctions against Russia may be intensified; Russia's fuel oil export restrictions may be extended. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2714, and the current value is 2669, a decrease of 45 or 1.66%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3216, and the current value is 3158, a decrease of 58 or 1.80%. The previous value of the FU basis was - 22, and the current value is 24, an increase of 46 or 206.75%. The previous value of the LU basis was - 8, and the current value is 8, an increase of 16 or 200.51% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 363.05 to 367.61 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.56 dollars/ton or 1.26%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 435.50 to 431.60 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.90 dollars/ton or 0.90%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 339.50 to 344.12 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.62 dollars/ton or 1.36%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased from 630.10 to 620.96 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.13 dollars/ton or 1.45% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on October 8 was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months, with an increase in some weeks and a decrease in others [3][8].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Report's core view: Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Group 2: According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2340 - 2400 range oscillation. Its fundamentals are neutral; the basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory shows a decrease both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing out, which is bearish. Due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts, it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export and domestic supply expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been levied. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future of global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 29 to October 15, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the 2601 contract's price difference oscillating at a low level. Rapeseed meal futures prices fluctuated and declined, while spot prices were relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed by oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][17][22]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to subsequent developments [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has risen. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8440 - 8700 [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling will increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand is currently in a state of decline but may rebound later, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49985 - 51745 [8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a 4.65% week - on - week decrease, with continuous weak demand [6]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory is 240,000 tons (high), silicone inventory is 55,100 tons (low), aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 757,000 tons (high), social inventory is 545,000 tons (a 0.37% week - on - week increase), sample enterprise inventory is 167,850 tons (a 3.29% week - on - week increase), and main port inventory is 120,000 tons [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3126 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Base Difference**: On October 15, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference was 730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW, a 6.89% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 7.83% week - on - week increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production in October is 55.68GW, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, and component production is in a profit state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - **Base Difference**: The price of N - type dense material is 51,250 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference is 1885 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 240,000 tons, at a high level compared to the same period in history, with a 6.19% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract price closed below MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing, showing a bullish trend [8]. 3.2 Market Overviews Industrial Silicon - Futures contract prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease, and inventory data such as social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory had corresponding changes [14]. Polysilicon - Futures contract prices generally increased, and data on silicon wafer production, inventory, battery cell production, and component production also had corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: Included price - base difference and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance tables [18][24][27][33][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Included disk price trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance tables [21][59][62]. 3.4 Downstream Trends - **Organic Silicon**: Included DMC price and production trends, downstream product price trends, import - export and inventory trends [41][43][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Included price and supply trends, inventory and production trends, and demand trends (automobile and wheel hub) [51][54][56]. - **Polysilicon**: Included fundamental trends, supply - demand balance tables, silicon wafer trends, battery cell trends, and photovoltaic component trends [59][62][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to rising tariff concerns, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and a decline in risk appetite, both gold and silver prices are on an upward trend. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and tariff concerns may lead to an enlarged increase in silver prices [4][5]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new U.S. government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices remains high, with prices still more likely to rise than fall. Silver prices, mainly following gold prices, are also affected by tariff concerns, which may lead to an enlarged increase [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: U.S. stock and European stock indices closed with mixed results. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.37 basis points to 4.032%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.39% to 98.67. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce. The gold futures price was 960.34, the spot price was 957.3, with a basis of - 3.04 (spot at a discount to futures). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2916 kilograms to 75099 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices rose significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11966, the spot price was 11930, with a basis of - 36 (spot at a discount to futures). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 32643 kilograms to 1030429 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to rising tariff concerns, a decline in risk appetite, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to - 2.3 yuan/gram, indicating a significant increase in domestic sentiment. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices continue to rise significantly. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded significantly to - 40 yuan/gram, indicating a significant recovery in domestic sentiment. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Multiple economic data releases and speeches are scheduled, including the Japanese central bank's market operation meeting, Japan's August core machinery orders, Australia's September employment report, the U.K.'s August GDP, and speeches by multiple central bank officials such as those from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, a significant shadow Fed, rising expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Bearish factors include the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9][13]. - **Silver**: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and in addition, non - ferrous metal tariffs support silver prices. Bearish factors are also similar to those of gold [12][13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of October 15, 2025, the long position volume was 212,862, an increase of 2,204 (1.05%) from the previous day. The short position volume was 80,154, an increase of 1,323 (1.68%). The net long position was 132,708, an increase of 881 (0.67%) [29]. - **Silver**: As of October 15, 2025, the long position volume was 379,089, an increase of 22,782 (6.39%) from the previous day. The short position volume was 287,130, an increase of 23,637 (8.97%). The net long position was 91,959, a decrease of 855 (- 0.92%) [32].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The tense Sino - US relations have put pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Oil Types Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - cut season. The overall view is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8432, with a basis of 180, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The overall view is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9362, with a basis of - 40, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The overall view is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10153, with a basis of 221, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4]. 4. Recent利多 and利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5].