Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility / Polysilicon: Volatility [1] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices continue to decline, with some small factories planning further production cuts, but partial resumption in Sichuan and potential resumption of large Xinjiang factories. Demand remains weak, and future spot prices are not optimistic [1][9]. - Polysilicon prices first rose and then fell. After the production - cut meeting, no clear plan was given. The market is trading based on reality. The company has lowered the production schedule for May and June, and polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory [1][11]. - For investment, it is not recommended to go long on industrial silicon on the left - hand side, and consider short - selling on rebounds. For polysilicon, an arbitrage strategy is recommended, focusing on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 [2][14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2507 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 8145 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blowing 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon also declined. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 980 yuan/ton to 36850 yuan/ton, and the N - type re - feeding material transaction price also dropped [7][8]. 2. Industrial Silicon May Partially Resume Production, Polysilicon Focus on Positive Spread Opportunities Industrial Silicon - This week, industrial silicon futures rebounded and then fell. Zhou production was 6.92 tons, a decrease of 3.94%. Social inventory increased by 0.3 tons, and sample factory inventory decreased by 1.73 tons. Demand is weak, and future prices are not optimistic [9]. Organic Silicon - This week, organic silicon prices declined slightly. The overall enterprise start - up rate was about 58.95%, an increase of 3.17pct. Zhou production was 3.90 tons, an increase of 3.17%, and inventory was 4.69 tons, a decrease of 5.06%. Short - term prices may rebound slightly, but the long - term supply surplus problem remains [9][10]. Polysilicon - This week, polysilicon futures prices first rose and then fell. The company has lowered the production schedule for May to about 9.3 tons and for June to 9 tons. Polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory in May and June. The average spot selling price has fallen below the cash cost line, and the production - cut action is still being negotiated [11]. Silicon Wafers - This week, silicon wafer prices continued to fall. As of May 15th, factory inventory was 19.44GW, an increase of 1.31GW. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12]. Battery Cells - This week, battery cell prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was 58 - 59GW. Inventory has accumulated, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [13]. Components - This week, component prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was about 54GW, and the expected production schedule for June is 50GW. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the low - price range [13]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Industrial silicon: Do not recommend going long on the left - hand side, consider short - selling on rebounds, and pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Recommend an arbitrage strategy, focus on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508, and continue to pay attention to supply - side changes and spot conditions [2][15]. 4. Hot News Compilation - Ruoqiang County's second - phase 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon compliance capacity project: The industrial silicon indicator of Fuhai County will be transferred to Xinjiang TBEA Loulan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. for project construction [16]. - Hongyuan Green Energy plans to transfer 27.0737% of the equity of Inner Mongolia Xinyuan for 1.245 billion yuan to optimize resource allocation and focus on core business [16]. - Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project is under publicity, with an investment of 1.495 billion yuan [17]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides various data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, production, inventory, and profit data [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 12 - May 18), treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the unexpected progress of China - US trade negotiations and marginal convergence of the capital market. Looking ahead to next week, the capital market is expected to see a slight increase in interest rates during the tax period, and the market sentiment will remain weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process will be tortuous, and there is a possibility of flattening in the short - term [13][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. On Monday, due to the unexpected statement of China - US trade negotiations, futures opened lower, then strengthened slightly and finally weakened significantly. On Tuesday, they turned from weak to strong. On Wednesday, they declined slightly. On Thursday, long - term futures performed strongly. On Friday, the curve flattened bearishly in the morning and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. As of May 16, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main continuous contracts were 102.368, 105.695, 108.460, and 118.880 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.012, +0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The capital market will be the focus. During the tax period, the capital market is expected to be slightly tighter, and the market sentiment will be weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process is tortuous, and there may be a slight flattening in the short - term. The capital interest rate is expected to rise slightly during the tax period, and the market's concern about the capital market persists [15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 77 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 707.974 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields increased. As of May 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.88% respectively, up 4.73, 6.80, 4.60, and 4.25 bp from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests decreased [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy decreased significantly. The basis of each variety is expected to gradually return to a normal level [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads of each variety generally widened in the opposite direction and are expected to gradually converge to 0 in the oscillation. However, the time for deploying this strategy is limited [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. As of May 16, capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all increased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank repurchase increased [51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of May 9, the US dollar index increased by 0.56% to 100.9828, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 bp to 4.43%. The spread between China and the US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 275 bp [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, with weak market sentiment, short - term defense is recommended. Aggressive investors can consider buying long - term varieties on dips. In the long - term, the curve is expected to steepen, but the process is tortuous. The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy has decreased significantly, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. The strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be tried, with a quick - in - quick - out approach [2][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index is "oscillation" [1] Core View of the Report - The global stock market rose this week, especially the US stocks driving the significant recovery of developed markets. The Sino-US Geneva talks achieved better-than-expected progress, with a 91% reduction in reciprocal tariffs, and 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days. This will lead to trade restoration between the two countries in the next 90 days, and the external cycle will support the domestic economy. However, policy efforts may remain conservative, and the inflation situation is hard to strengthen. Given the current high valuation of the stock market, the potential return on investment is restricted. The short - term market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [2][9] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview - **Next Week's View**: The market is expected to wait for the return of liquidity. The short - term market will maintain an oscillatory trend due to Sino - US trade restoration, conservative policy efforts, and high stock market valuations [2][9] - **This Week's Key Event Concerns**: - On May 12th, Sino - US Geneva economic and trade negotiations made positive progress, with a 91% reduction in reciprocal tariffs. The US and China will adjust relevant tariff policies, and China will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff countermeasures against the US. Also, 34 cities will be selected for the third batch of enterprise digital transformation pilot projects. Japan's Prime Minister demanded the US to cancel all additional tariffs [10][11][12] - On May 13th, China's leader proposed to start five major projects with Latin American countries. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of work - relief. The central bank's deputy governor summarized four changes in the central bank's policy framework. India plans to impose tariffs on some US products. China's central bank and Brazil's central bank signed relevant agreements [14][15][16][17][18] - On May 14th, China's leader met with leaders of Colombia and Chile, promoting bilateral cooperation. Seven departments issued policies to build a science - technology finance system. Tax data showed that the national enterprise sales revenue increased by 4.3% year - on - year in April. China's M2 growth rate was 8% and M1 was 1.5% in April [19][20][21][22] - On May 15th, China will implement a visa - free policy for five South American countries. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a document to combat illegal activities in the capital market. The agricultural machinery market index in April showed a weak peak season [23][24][25] - On May 16th, the average annual salary of urban non - private employees in 2024 was 124,110 yuan, with a 2.6% increase, and that of private employees was 69,476 yuan, with a 4% increase. Public fund professionals refuted the view of market repositioning due to public fund assessment benchmarks. The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of duty - free shopping for consumption [26][27][28] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From May 12th to May 16th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars generally rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 3.97%, with developed markets (+4.08%) > emerging markets (+2.98%) > frontier markets (+1.72%). The stock index of Taiwan, China rose 5.37%, leading the world, while the Japanese stock market fell 0.48%, performing the worst globally [29] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: Chinese equity assets were divided into markets, with Chinese concept stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1266.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 87.2 billion yuan from last week. A - share indexes were differentiated, with blue - chip indexes such as the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rising more than 1%, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and STAR 50 indexes fell [32] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the information technology industry leading (+7.39%), and the healthcare industry performing poorly (-0.02%). In the Chinese market, the financial industry led the rise (+1.91%), and the information technology industry led the decline (-0.84%) [35] - **Weekly Overview of Chinese A - Share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among Chinese A - share CITIC primary industries, 21 rose (30 last week) and 9 fell (0 last week). The leading industry was the automobile industry (+2.71%), and the industry with the largest decline was the national defense and military industry (-1.61%) [36] - **Weekly Overview of Chinese A - Share Styles**: The large - cap growth style was dominant [41] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: No specific data was summarized in the text [44] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - Based Index Valuation**: The text provided PE and PB data for various broad - based indexes this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings [53] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The text provided PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings [54] - **Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [55][60] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.38% and up to 8.09% in 2026; that of the CSI 500 in 2025 was adjusted down to 37.38% and down to 16.00% in 2026; that of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was adjusted up to 1.55% and down to 18.76% in 2026 [61] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond and the 1 - year Treasury bond rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 100, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.20 [68] - **Trading - Type Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 13.3 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 4.3 billion yuan [71] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: There were 28 on - site ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 29 tracking the CSI A500. The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.6 billion shares, that of the CSI 500 decreased by 200 million shares, that of the CSI 1000 decreased by 700 million shares, and that of the CSI A500 decreased by 4.3 billion shares [73][74][78] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire operating rate rebounded rapidly [80] - **Consumption Side**: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices slightly recovered [90] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices reached a new low this year [101]

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 拍卖预期增加，期货回落，现货仍偏强 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：看涨 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 5 月 | 年 | 17 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 农 一周复盘：现货继续震荡趋强，盘面因基差较弱、套保压力增加以 及拍卖预期增强而小幅回落。供应面，市场传闻 400 万吨进口储备 拍卖已获批但时间未定，小麦替代优势跟随豆粕价格回落，暂无大 量新增供应；中美关税战虽暂缓，但美高粱、美玉米的关税未减； 山东深加工门前到车近一周明显增加，现货上涨刺激了贸易商的出 货。需求面，饲料工业协会数据显示，4 月工业饲料产量及对应的 能量原料消耗量，环比、同比均呈现较的高增长；钢联数据显示， 近期深加工玉米消耗量持续下降，不过海外木薯上量旺季已逐渐过 去。库存方面，华北深加工企业玉米库存已经大幅低于上年；北港 库存下降偏慢，主要是基差充分回归之前基差粮不会释放。 产 下周观点： 品 需求面，来自木薯的替代压力预计不会持续显著增强，深 ...

宏观策略（股指期货） 最高法、证监会：依法对编传"小作文"追究刑事责任 城市更新行动方案出炉，未来国内托举经济的路径逐渐明朗， 固定资产投资在经济中的占比仍将保持较高水平。对股市而言， 需关注 PPI 的边际变化，来决定企业利润率的弹性。 宏观策略（黄金） 日度报告——综合晨报 鲍威尔对长期利率上升提出警告 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-16 农产品（玉米） 饲料企业库存天数微增 鲍威尔表示需要重新考虑围绕就业不足和平均通胀率战略措辞 综 合 金价剧烈波动先跌后涨最终收涨，内盘持仓小幅减少，在关税 和地缘军事冲突缓解的情况下，资金开始流出黄金，短期金价 仍处于调整过程中，尚未完全企稳，同时波动加大。 晨 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 关税谈判进展缓慢 欧盟据悉正在准备与美国的新贸易提案 美联储准备修改自己的政策框架，这意味着未来新的政策思路 发生巨大改变，美元指数短期震荡。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 乘联分会：5 月 1-11 日全国乘用车市场零售 57.4 万辆 本周钢联五大品种库存再度下降，冷轧则延续小幅累库，制造 业终端边际转弱并未扭转。基本面矛盾不大，加之关税缓和， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for nickel is "Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current range - bound oscillation pattern of nickel may continue in the short - term. Band trading opportunities can be focused on. When the factors of "geopolitical risk + concentrated supply" are present in the nickel industry chain, the trading focus is recommended to be on seizing opportunities to go long at low prices, while closely tracking the trend of ore prices [5][45][46] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Event Overview - The first - quarter operation reports of most overseas nickel enterprises have been gradually disclosed recently. By analyzing the nickel ore production in the latest financial reports, different evolution patterns of laterite nickel ore and sulfide nickel ore are deduced, and some thoughts on recent trading rhythms are provided [11] 2. Event Analysis 2.1 Indonesia Laterite Nickel Ore Supply Tight, Focus on Quota Release Rhythm - Harita Nickel: In Q1 2025, the sales volume of limonite reached 3.71 million wet tons and saprolite reached 1.78 million wet tons, with a total year - on - year increase of 52%. The joint - venture project KPS expanded production to 4 furnaces in Q1 2025, and 6 HPAL production lines were in stable over - production [12] - PT Vale: In Q1 2025, nickel production in the Indonesian production area decreased by 24% year - on - year to 14,200 metal tons, reflecting the tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore and the rising premium [12] - Antam: In Q1 2025, the quarterly nickel ore production reached a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 221% to 4.63 million wet tons and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 76% [14] - Nickel Industries: In Q1 2025, nickel ore production increased by 82% year - on - year but decreased by 21.5% quarter - on - quarter to 5.649 million wet tons. The company is confident of getting the RKAB increase approved in the second half of the year [15] - WedaBay Nickel: In Q1 2025, the nickel ore production increased by 3.2% year - on - year to 9.169 million wet tons. The RKAB quota obtained in 2025 has decreased significantly compared with last year, with the risk of production falling short of expectations [15] - Merdeka (MBMA): In Q1 2025, the production of saprolite increased by 190% year - on - year to 1.3 million wet tons, and limonite increased by 54% to 1.8 million wet tons. The cash cost of saprolite decreased year - on - year, while that of limonite increased [17] 2.2 Sulfide Nickel Ore Production Cutback Rhythm Slows - Russia: In Q1 2025, nickel production decreased by 1.1% year - on - year to 41,600 tons. The company expects the total refined nickel production in 2025 to be 204,000 - 211,000 tons, with a higher probability of being on the left side of the range [26] - Vale: The total nickel production reached 42,900 metal tons in Q1 2025, an increase of 4,400 metal tons year - on - year, with a 4% decrease in total cost [26] - Australia: After the shutdown of high - cost nickel ore projects in 2024, only two nickel ore projects are currently in operation, and the Nova project is expected to stop production at the end of 2026 due to grade depletion. The production of operating projects in Q1 2025 remained low [29] 3. Investment Advice - Laterite nickel ore: Since the beginning of 2025, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore has been tight. Some leading mining enterprises have good year - on - year growth, mainly due to the slow release of quotas last year. The core logic is that mines with new projects will get corresponding incremental quotas, while large mines cut quotas to support small mines. The approved RKAB quota is less than the previous news, and the supply may remain tight throughout the year [40] - Trading: The tight supply expectation of Indonesian ore may last throughout the year. The current range - bound oscillation pattern may continue in the short - term. The short - side logic focuses on the loosening of ore supply, while the long - side logic emphasizes the tight ore supply and potential production cuts. It is recommended to focus on band trading opportunities and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices [45][46]

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-15 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储副主席：预计经济增长将放缓，通胀或反弹但待观察 美联储官员表态经济稳健，因此不急于降息，美联储官员对于 经济短期看法明显乐观，美元维持震荡。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 韩国与美国就外汇政策展开对话 美国与中东国家的协议继续支撑科技板块上涨，股指表现分化， 纳指明显强于标普 500 和道琼斯指数。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 晨 报 虽然财政正在积极发力，但私人部门仍然缺乏主动投融资意愿。 基本面对债市的影响依然是偏多的。 黑色金属（动力煤） 5 月 14 日北港市场动力煤价格弱势运行 伴随港口集中疏港，煤价下行压力一次性释放。后期来看，根 据天气预估，此轮夏季或再次呈现高温，火电增速有望在夏季 转至同比正增长。需求季节性回转将接替港口降库完成，煤 农产品（豆粕） 美国建议延长生物燃料税收抵免 美国众议院提议延长生物燃料税收抵免至 2031 年底，ANEC 将 巴西 5 月出口预估上调至 1426 万吨。昨日国内豆粕现货稳中有 跌 ...

热点报告——液化石油气 中美关税阶段性缓和，内外盘定价逻辑分化 | | [Table液_R化an石k]油气：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 14 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | | 走势评级： 报告日期： | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] ★中美关税缓和超预期，FEI/CP 价差显著收窄 关税缓和对国际纸货价格产生了明显的影响，中国进口美国货 可能性的提升支撑 6 月 FEI 纸货价格大幅上涨，同时此前 CP 价 格来自中国寻求美国货替代来源的支撑预期部分消退下有所回 落，FEI-CP 价差走强，但并未走强至对等关税加征前水平，6 月合约两者价差走强至-20 美元/吨后上行乏力。 能 源 结合当前的 LPG 商品基本面以及宏观环境仍存在不确定性的整 体情景，我们预计短期 FEI 向上和 CP 向下的进一步驱动相对有 限，CP 预计仍将较 FEI 表现偏强。 与 碳 ★ C4 需求疲弱叠加仓单压制下，关税缓和对内盘价格影响有限 中 和 相对于 ...

热点报告—锌 [★Ta宏bl观e_面Su：mm宏a观ry]利多阶段性出清，关税缓和递延需求走弱预期 关税缓和有几率带动锌终端需求发动新一轮抢出口，需求走弱预 期将有所递延。但即便排除关税，海外反倾销举措、买单出口等 因素依然会对锌下游出口形成压制。国内降准降息落地后，到下 一次联储降息前或存在政策真空期，宏观利多基本阶段性出清。 利多阶段性出清，基本面拐点将至 ★供应端：国内供应维持偏强释放预期 有 色 金 1Q25 海外出矿表现较好，大型项目和新项目增复产相对顺利， 部分海外炼厂进行主动减产，后续或有更多锌矿能流入国内。按 现有原料库存来估算，即便炼厂维持 4 月高位产量，矿端也难在 三季度中期前出现明显紧缺。在原料充裕和利润修复的双重支撑 下，炼厂具有较强的开工动能，预计 5 月下旬锌锭产量将有所修 复，且比价打开时间和幅度略超预期，后续或有更多进口锌流入。 属 ★需求端：内需承压预期递延而非消除 宏观来看，目前锌需求处于季节性走弱过程中。中观来看，新增 专项债实际发行规模和速度不及预期，基建实物工作量表现偏弱 且后续增量有限，关税缓和对耐用消费品的提振仍需持续观察。 微观来看，下游厂商受关税缓和刺激和担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US reached a tariff consensus, with both sides significantly reducing tariff levels, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][17]. - The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations has had a wide - ranging impact on various financial and commodity markets, including changes in prices and market sentiment [2][5]. - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market remains unchanged, and the impact of the easing of trade conflicts is mainly concentrated on the expected level [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee believes tariffs will still cause stagflation. Gold prices continued to decline by over 3%, as the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, geopolitical military conflicts weakened, and market risk aversion eased [2][12]. - Short - term gold prices are under pressure and are expected to have further downward space [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "grand tax - cut bill" plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion. Trump hinted at possibly participating in the Russia - Ukraine leaders' talks [15][16]. - The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term due to the Sino - US tariff consensus and increased market risk appetite [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Kugler believes that Trump's tariff policy may still push up inflation and drag down economic growth. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tariff levels [19][21]. - The short - term strength of US stocks is supported by the easing of tariff negotiations, but there may be fluctuations in the subsequent negotiation process [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Sino - US economic and trade talks made significant progress, and the central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [22][23]. - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US cotton in 25/26 will increase slightly, and the global ending stocks will remain flat, with a bearish impact on the international cotton market [4][27]. - After the Sino - US consultations, Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate after a short - term bullish boost. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of domestic cotton commercial inventory depletion and Sino - US trade negotiations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in 25/26 are significantly lower than expected, and the soybean planting rate is higher than expected. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased [30][31]. - The easing of Sino - US relations will lead to a situation of weak domestic and strong foreign markets, and soybean meal spot prices will remain under pressure [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch remains high and firm. It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot prices of wheat and corn have risen. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 07 contract and positive spreads in 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [34][35]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market fluctuates. The short - term price of coking coal may stabilize with the improvement of the macro - environment, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals remain unchanged [36][37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Sino - US trade negotiation progress drove up steel prices. The sales volume of excavators in April increased year - on - year, and the production and sales of automobiles from January to April exceeded 10 million for the first time [5][39]. - Steel prices are expected to continue the rebound pattern in the near future, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term [41][42]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - grade silver - copper ore was discovered in Ireland's Ballywire multi - metal mine. Yunnan Copper plans to buy a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining [42][43]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction is beneficial to copper prices, but the weakening fundamentals will limit the increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [6][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots shows a slight downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spreads [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The production of zinc by Zijin Mining in the first quarter decreased, while New Century's zinc concentrate production increased. The inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased [50][52]. - Zinc has the value of short - selling allocation. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and high - level option selling opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors that leading enterprises plan to control production and support prices. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the supply side and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations from May to June [55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of 97 - grade silicon continues to decrease. It is recommended to partially stop profits on previous short positions and not to buy on the left side [57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The installed capacity of power batteries in April increased year - on - year. Short - term fundamentals are mixed, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium - and long - term [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesian nickel enterprises are preparing for the potential impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban. The price of nickel is expected to fluctuate within the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [60][62]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The reduction of China's import tariffs on the US has a positive impact on the international LPG market. Long - term FEI price increase momentum may be insufficient, and policy changes should be closely monitored [64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq may cut oil exports slightly. The improvement of market risk appetite supports short - term oil prices, but supply - side risks still exist [65][66]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis strengthened. PTA is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [67][68]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory accumulation of asphalt has slowed down. The futures price of asphalt is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The sowing progress of spring crops in Sichuan is over half. The urea market is expected to focus on exports, and the 9/1 spread is in a positive spread pattern in the short - to - medium - term [71][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. Short - term styrene may continue to rebound, and the medium - term depends on the recovery of 3S orders [74][76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising, and the inventory is low. The short - term caustic soda futures price is expected to be strong [77][78]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp shows a differentiated trend. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs may drive the pulp futures price to rebound [79][81]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC in the domestic market slightly decreased. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs may drive the PVC price to rebound [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories have increased. Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [84][86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract in the short - term [87]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Guangdong market remained stable. The glass futures price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [88].