Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The results of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, with the US reducing tariffs on China. The terminal's window period for rush exports and re - exports has been extended, and the demand expectation for the next two months has improved marginally [5]. - The situation of the Suez Canal has changed, with a 15% transit fee discount for large container ships starting from May 15, aiming to boost traffic and revenue [4]. - Wall Street banks and traders have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citi have postponed their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. - For coking coal, the domestic supply is increasing, and the inventory pressure is concentrated in coal mines. Although it benefits from tariff reduction in the short term, there is still pressure on the price after the rebound [5]. - For coke, steel mills have started the first round of price cuts in May. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term strategy is to go short on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot - Futures Market Conditions 1. Domestic Prices - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke showed weak performance after rebounding. The J2509 contract of coke closed at 1472.00 (unchanged), and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 883.00 (unchanged) [13]. - Domestic Spot: The prices of first - grade and second - grade coke in Tangshan, and quasi - first - grade and first - grade coke in Rizhao remained unchanged. The prices of medium - sulfur and low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang and Anze also remained unchanged [14]. 2. Import Prices - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton to 820.00 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal remained unchanged at 1015.00 yuan/ton. The prices of some imported coals such as Peak Downs (CFR) and Peak North (CFR) increased slightly, while others remained unchanged [18]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 1. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%. The daily average output of coke in independent coking plants and 247 steel mills also had corresponding changes [23]. 2. Inventory - The coking coal inventory in six ports decreased by 13.97 tons to 297.81 tons. The coking coal inventory in coking plants decreased by 42.66 tons to 916.62 tons, while the coking coal inventory in steel mills increased by 2.42 tons to 787.21 tons. The coke inventory in four ports decreased by 9.04 tons to 229.08 tons, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased by 4.52 tons to 94.44 tons, and the coke inventory in steel mills decreased by 4.19 tons to 671.03 tons [26]. Part 3: Price Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the document, only figures related to price spreads are listed [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has changed with tariff adjustments, trade situation improvement, and shipping fee discounts. The black market is in a weak state with only short - term rebounds, not reversals. For manganese silicon, it may rebound in the short - term but is expected to decline after reaching a peak. For silicon iron, it is still in a weak position, and a short - term long - position can be considered after a decline [5][7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Trading Strategies and Futures - Spot Market Conditions - **Trading Strategies**: For manganese silicon, use range - bound operations with short - selling on rebounds, with support at 5400 - 5420 yuan/ton and resistance at 5900 - 5920 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, mainly use range - bound operations, try short - term long - positions after a decline and short - sell on rebounds, with support at 5400 - 5420 yuan/ton and resistance at 5700 - 5720 yuan/ton [6][8][14] - **Futures - Spot Market Conditions**: The opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, settlement price, open interest, and other data of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures contracts are provided [14] 3.2 Second Part: Ferroalloy Fundamentals 3.2.1 Weekly Production and Demand - **Production**: Relevant charts show the weekly production values of silicon manganese and silicon iron [18] - **Demand**: Charts display the weekly demand values of silicon manganese and silicon iron, and the daily average pig iron production also affects the demand for ferroalloys [22][23] 3.2.2 Ferroalloy Inventory - Charts show the national ending inventory and inventory days of silicon manganese and silicon iron [24][27][29] 3.2.3 Ferroalloy Production Cost - Relevant charts present the spot production cost and profit of silicon manganese and silicon iron, as well as the average price of semi - coke in Ningxia and the market price of chemical coke in Shanxi [31][35][39] 3.3 Third Part: Option Strategies 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon Options - The trading volume, change, open interest, change, turnover, change, and relevant ratios of call options, put options, and overall manganese silicon options on May 16, 2025 are provided [40] 3.3.2 Silicon Iron Options - The trading volume, change, open interest, change, turnover, change, and relevant ratios of call options, put options, and overall silicon iron options on May 16, 2025 are provided [42]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In April 2025, the escalation of Sino-US tariffs put pressure on commodities, but agricultural products were relatively resilient, and the pig market was less directly affected. The far - end breeding cost was difficult to further reduce, and the spot price was stable due to the end of the seasonal off - season [3]. - In 2025, the pig slaughter volume increased year - on - year, but the pressure was not significant. The production efficiency of sows improved, but the overall increase in the number of breeding sows was limited [4]. - From May to June 2025, the probability of pig prices falling below the breeding cost is low. The feed cost is difficult to decline, and the upstream of the pig industry has not accumulated excessive risks [5]. - In the context of the expected increase in pig supply in the first half of 2025, attention should be paid to whether there are unexpected changes in the demand side. It is advisable to go long on pig futures when the price is below 13,000 points or buy call options near the cost [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of Pig Futures and Spot Prices in April 2025 - The escalation of Sino - US tariffs in April injected positive factors into the feed and breeding industry chain, with feed raw materials leading the rise in agricultural products [8]. - Pig futures prices opened high and closed low in April, and the 2505 contract made up for the premium to the spot. The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at historical lows, and the ratio of pig to feed on the disk is close to historical lows [10][12][15]. - In April, the price of 7 - kg weaned piglets stopped rising and adjusted, the price of fattening pigs fell, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs inverted. The price of feed oscillated and rose, and the terminal consumption improved marginally [17][20][21]. - The spot price of pigs in the second quarter is prone to seasonal strength, with an average increase probability of 62% - 82% from May to August in the past [39]. 2. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows has increased by about 5% compared with March 2024. The prices of culled sows and replacement sows remained stable in April [42][43]. - The production efficiency of single - sow has improved, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. Pig slaughter volume in May 2025 continued to increase due to the recovery of sow production capacity and improved production efficiency [45][49]. 3. Situation of Listed Pig Enterprises - In April, the slaughter volume of leading group companies decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year. The sales volume of piglets of listed companies decreased month - on - month, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high [54][55][58]. 4. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In April 2025, the price difference between standard and fat pigs rebounded rapidly, and the price of fat pigs was lower than that of standard pigs. The slaughter weight in May is likely to fall seasonally and is currently at a historical high [62][65]. - The slaughter volume in May decreased seasonally but was higher than the same period last year, and the supply of standard pigs in the market was sufficient. The import volume of pork and offal decreased from the high level, and the expected import volume of beef in the second quarter will decline month - on - month [68][71][74]. - The frozen product inventory rebounded slightly from the low level in April. The current monthly average profit level is at the historical median. In April, both purchased piglets and self - breeding and self - raising were profitable, but the profit level decreased slightly [77][80][81]. 5. Pig Futures Price and Market Outlook - In April, pig futures prices opened high and closed low, and near - month contracts were more resilient than far - month contracts. The pig index is at a historical low, and the trading volume decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year [87][88]. - The 2505 contract rebounded from the low level in April to make up for the premium to the spot. The near - month contract is priced near the breeding cost, and the far - month contract has a low premium in the peak season [92][93][96]. - The basis is stronger than the same period in previous years. Attention should be paid to the regression mode of pig spot and futures in the second quarter. There may be opportunities for inter - month reverse arbitrage [99][102]. - In May, attention should be paid to the possible slaughter pressure when the weight is too high. The market volatility in the second quarter is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the systematic fluctuations in the agricultural product sector caused by Trump's tariff policy [107][108].

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 | 作者： | 段智栈 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03140418 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0021604 | | 联系方式： | 18810293832 | 期货研究院 黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略 摘要 【重要资讯】 黑色建材团队 1.当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明》：美国对中国商品征收关税降低至30%，中国对美国商品 征收关税降低至10%。 2.日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税 的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国 进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解 关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日本消费税税率表示谨慎 。 3.5月11日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上发文称 ，"虽然没有进行讨论，但我将大幅增加与印度和巴基斯坦的贸易 往来"。 4.中汽协：今年1至4月份，我国汽车产销量分别完成1017.5万辆和 1006万辆，同比分别增 ...

期货研究院 股指期货日度策略报告 Stock Index Futures Strategy Daily Report 金融衍生品研究中心 | 作者： | 李彦森 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3050205 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0013871 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518392 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 【行情复盘】 周一股指上行步伐有所加快，沪指收涨0.82%。期指主力合约也全 面走升。成交持仓方面，四个品种成交持仓均上升，市场情绪有所 好转。 【重要资讯】 行业来看，31个一级行业大多数上涨，行业涨跌差异上升，结合行 业在指数中所占权重看，非银金融对300和50带动最强，电力设备 带动300，国防军工、电子带动500和1000，医药生物是四大指数 主要拖累。资金方面，主要指数资金全面流入。消息面上看，央行 今日公开市场操作净投放流动性430亿元，短端资金成本小幅下降 。消息显示，中美关税谈判取得突破性进展，双方联合声明确认将 4月2日后增量关税降至 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily strategy for ferroalloys, covering manganese silicon (MnSi) and ferrosilicon (FeSi), including market logic, trading strategies, and option strategies [1][3][4] - It also presents ferroalloy fundamentals such as weekly production and demand, inventory, and production costs [14] Group 2: Important News - On May 12, 2025, the US and China issued a joint statement on the Geneva economic and trade talks, reducing tariffs on each other's goods to 30% and 10% respectively [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan would not reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US without including automobile tariffs and was considering increasing corn imports from the US [1] - From January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% and 10.8%, breaking through the 10 million mark for the first time [2] Group 3: Manganese Silicon (MnSi) Market Logic - The weak overall expectation for the black metal sector remains unchanged. The easing of tariffs only affects the decline rate and raises the pressure level, but it is only a rebound, not a reversal [3] - Since manganese ore is mainly imported, the rebound amplitude of MnSi may be relatively high. Although hot metal production remains at a high level of about 2.46 million tons, the upward space is limited, and there is an expectation of a peak and decline in a few weeks, which will put pressure on ferroalloy demand again [3] - Despite a significant reduction in MnSi production, the factory inventory is still increasing, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is relatively large, almost doubling compared to the same period last year, which also restricts the upward space [3] Trading Strategy - The market sentiment has eased, and manganese ore may drive MnSi to continue to rebound, but it is expected to peak and decline later. In the short term, use range trading, sell high after the rebound, and buy low when it falls to a low level. Pay attention to the support at 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton and the pressure at 5,960 - 5,980 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of MnSi call options was 114,839, an increase of 33,431, and the trading volume of put options was 61,613, an increase of 17,633. The trading volume PCR was 0.54 [40] Group 4: Ferrosilicon (FeSi) Market Logic - The Sino-US statement exceeded expectations, with a significant reduction in tariffs, and the warming macro sentiment drove commodities up. However, the black metal sector still faces pressure after the rebound, and it is only a rebound, not a reversal [4] - Currently, the main contract of FeSi has switched to 07. Due to the premium of the far-month contract, the main contract has a larger increase, but its cost may continue to decline, so its later decline may be greater than that of MnSi [4] - After the production reduction of ferroalloy plants, the output has decreased, and the factory inventory of FeSi has started to decline, but the inventory on the futures market has increased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is still relatively high [4] - The daily hot metal production is 2.45 million tons, with limited upward space and weak sustainability. There is an expectation of a decline in a few weeks. Once the hot metal weakens, the cost may drive the FeSi price to continue to decline [4] Trading Strategy - Although the supply of FeSi has shrunk, the demand increase is limited. The short-term rebound cannot change the overall pattern. Pay attention to the support at around 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton and the pressure at around 5,700 - 5,720 yuan/ton [5] Option Strategy - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of FeSi call options was 83,349, an increase of 54,852, and the trading volume of put options was 35,812, an increase of 17,007. The trading volume PCR was 0.43 [44] Group 5: Ferroalloy Fundamentals Weekly Production and Demand - The report shows charts of weekly production, demand, and hot metal production for MnSi and FeSi [15][17][19] Inventory - The report presents charts of inventory and inventory days for MnSi and FeSi [21][24][27] Production Costs - The report provides charts of spot production costs and profits for MnSi and FeSi, as well as the average price of semi-coke in Ningxia and the market price of chemical coke in Shanxi [29][34][39]

期货研究院 钢矿日度策略报告 Steel&Iron Futures Daily Trading Strategy Report 黑色金属与建材研究中心 | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年04月18日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 近期市场情绪受关税方面的消息影响，由于中期关税可能利空黑色 系整体需求，因此螺纹反弹驱动也较弱。从基本面看，短期现货压 力还不大，本周需求表现较好，去库较快，现货压力不大。3月及 一季度国内经济数据表现较强，宽口径基建投资同比增幅扩大，房 地产新开工降幅较1-2月收窄，但施工降幅扩大，制造业投资增速 较高，加之出口也较好，不过一季度经济受美国关税负面影响较小 ，且关税带来的"抢出口"相对利多一季度经济，而二季度关税可 能逐步影响外需及制造业，届时铁水面临回落，炉料供需压力或加 大，成本也将拖累螺纹价格。因此，关税的潜在利空预期仍较强， 短期无法 ...

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 煤化工产业链周报 Coal Chemical Industry Chain Weekly Report 摘要 行情回顾 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 夏聪聪 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3012139 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0012870 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578010 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年04月07日星期一 市场避险情绪升温，煤化工板块走势偏弱。甲醇、PVC、烧碱承压 回落，上方五日均线附近阻力明显。尿素期货涨势暂缓，重心冲高 后回落。 煤炭市场 【交易策略】关税政策加剧市场波动，避险情绪升温，尿素盘面存 在回调可能，多单建议离场，上方1930-1950附近承压，下方支撑 在1850-1860附近。 ●烧碱 上游煤炭市场维稳运行，报价与前期持平。产地主流煤矿生产平稳 ，货源供应充裕，到矿拉运车辆增加，多数煤矿库存保持在低位水 平，暂无库存压力。下游刚需接货为主，需求步入淡季，支撑力度 偏弱。煤炭市场供需宽松，市场存在下行压力。 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本端 ...

Group 1: Report Structure - The report includes four parts: an overview and trend review of the silicon-based industry chain, an overview of core views, the fundamental situation of industrial silicon, and the fundamental situation of polysilicon [4][17][22] Group 2: Silicon Industry Chain - The industrial silicon industry chain involves upstream raw materials such as quartzite and carbon reducers, midstream products like organic silicon monomers and polysilicon, and downstream applications in construction, electronics, new energy, and other fields [6] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Supply and Demand - The industrial silicon monthly supply - demand balance table shows data from January 2024 to February 2025, including production, imports, various demands, exports, and the supply - demand balance. For example, in February 2025, the supply - demand balance was 0.51 [48] Group 4: Photovoltaic Component Market - China's photovoltaic component exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month in February 2025. Component production continued to decline to meet the industry's requirement of reducing production to support prices, and component prices remained stable near the cost line [54][55] Group 5: Polysilicon Market - The polysilicon cost is composed of electricity (40%), metallic silicon (27%), labor (4%), steam (3%), water (2%), other auxiliary materials (6%), equipment depreciation (15%), and maintenance costs (3%). The polysilicon cost has slightly loosened [71][72][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The cost - end oil price will oscillate in a range, providing limited support. Supply may contract slightly during the maintenance season, but new device startups could offset some losses. Demand is likely to improve slightly first and then weaken seasonally. Overall, polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate around the current level. The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract in the range of 6800 - 7800 yuan/ton [78] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Polyolefin Market**: In Q1, polyolefin prices showed different fluctuations with a downward - moving center. In January, prices declined due to new device startups and weakening demand. In February, PE prices rose slightly while PP prices remained weak. In March, prices continued to fall due to oil price adjustments and manufacturers' price - cutting [7] - **Cost - end (Crude Oil)**: Oil prices first rose and then fell in Q1. Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to oscillate around the current level, with geopolitical and supply factors being the main concerns [10] 2. Supply Analysis - **Capacity and New Device Plans**: By the end of 2024, PE capacity was 34.2 million tons, up 9.26% year - on - year, and PP capacity was 43.82 million tons, up 12.68% year - on - year. In 2025, multiple new PE and PP devices are planned to start production [13][14][15] - **Device Profits**: Coal - based polyolefin device profits are acceptable, while other processes perform poorly [16] - **Device Maintenance**: In 2025, PE and PP entered the maintenance season, with increasing maintenance losses. In Q2, supply is expected to contract slightly, but new device startups may offset some losses [18][20][23][26] - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2025, PE imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased year - on - year. PP imports and exports both increased month - on - month and year - on - year [29][31] - **Inventory**: As of March 28, the inventory of major producers decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [33] 3. Demand Analysis - **PE Demand**: In Q1, PE demand was weak first and then recovered. In Q2, it is expected to continue to improve first and then weaken [44] - **PP Demand**: In Q1, PP demand was weak first and then recovered. In Q2, it is expected to rise first and then fall, with potential pressure from tariffs [48] - **Policy Impact**: The "Two New" policies in 2025 expand subsidy scope and intensity, which is beneficial to terminal consumption demand and stimulates the consumption of plastic products [52][53] 4. Arbitrage and Technical Analysis - **Cross - variety Arbitrage**: In Q1, the L/PP spread fluctuated in an inverted "N" shape. In Q2, there may be structural spread arbitrage opportunities, with an expected fluctuation range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [67] - **Technical Indicators**: The weekly K - line of PE is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton, and the PP weekly K - line has reached the lower limit of the oscillation range, with support levels at 7200 yuan/ton and 6800 yuan/ton [69][72] 5. Seasonal Analysis - **LLDPE Seasonal Trend**: Historically, LLDPE has a higher probability of rising in January, June, July, September, and December, and a higher probability of falling in February, March, May, August, October, and November [74] - **PP Seasonal Trend**: Statistically, the PP main contract has a higher probability of rising in January, April, June, July, and September, and a higher probability of falling in February, March, May, August, and October [75] 6. Supply - Demand Gap Analysis - The document provides historical and expected supply - demand gap data for PE and PP from 2017 to 2025 [76][77] 7. Outlook - **Supply**: Supply is expected to contract slightly during the maintenance season, but new device startups may offset some losses [78] - **Demand**: Demand is expected to improve slightly first and then weaken seasonally [78] - **Cost**: Oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range, with geopolitical and supply factors being the main concerns [78] - **Price**: Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate around the current level, with the LLDPE main contract in the range of 7400 - 8500 yuan/ton and the PP main contract in the range of 6800 - 7800 yuan/ton [78]