| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|----------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 经济修复未加速 供需仍待改善 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 方正中期研究院 宏观与大类资产研究中心 | 从业 | | | 投资咨询 | | | 年 月 日 | | | | | | www.founderfu.com 目录 第一部分 经济基本面与宏观供需 第二部分 价格水平变动情况 第三部分 货币与财政政策 第四部分 汇率与商品市场波动 l 2 主要观点 | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

1 中国宏观经济：经济修复步伐放缓 政策仍有 2024 年中国宏观经济半年报 ——2024 年上半年中国经济回顾与下半年展望 方正中期期货研究院 宏观与大类资产研究中心 李彦森 Z0013871 发力空间 10 图 22 半导体出口延续恢复态势 图 23 汽车出口维持高位 23000 18000 13000 ​​ 图 12 房地产投资持续处于低位 数据来源： Wind、方正中期期货研究院 图 13 制造业投资稳中有升 数据来源： Wind、方正中期期货研究院 7 而进口回落受到补库存放慢拖累，从 PMI 内需指标走弱也可验证。另外，欧盟对华电动汽车加关税或对出 口产生结构性影响。中长期看，出口仍将与全球经济贸易部门同步修复，背后的全球库存周期共振性向上 逻辑不变，预计下半年外需仍是支持经济的重要方面。在节奏方面，出口金额从快速修复期（2023H2- 2024Q1）进入平稳期后，增量上行空间减少，但同比在低基数推升下短期仍有望加速。进口则仍将受到国 内加库存步伐和大宗商品价格变动的影响。 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072 ...

欧元区经济弱现实强预期 日本连续 36 个月贸易赤字 方正中期期货研究院 宏观金融与大类资产研究中心 联系人：陈臻 chenzhen1@foundersc.com 目 录 第二部分 海外经济解读 ............................................................................................................................................2 知识创造财富 专业铸就品牌 国内方面，5 月经济数据多数表现不佳，工业增加值、城镇固定资产投资均弱于预期，但社 会零售消费增速回升。就业则仍待改善。基建动力暂时减弱是内需不佳的主因，并导致主要行业 补库放缓。外需动能维持稳定。关注特别国债发行后资金落地形成实物工作量的节奏，以及房屋 收储政策落地情况。央行全周净投放 3350 亿元，短端资金成本暂时位于低位，但跨季影响即将来 临。MLF 缩量平价续作，1 年和 5 年 LPR 均维持不变，均符合市场预期。而近期多家银行下调存 款利率，有望继续带动社会融资成本下行。政策方面，央行多渠道暗示未 ...

第二部分 本周和下周重要事件及数据回顾........................................................................................................4 图 2–1: 2024 年 6 月美联储点阵图 宏观经济与大宗商品市场周报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|--------|--------|----------|----------|----------| | 日期 | 时间 | 本周全球宏观数据及重要事件回顾（2024年6月10日-6月16日） \n事件 | 国家/地区 | 重要性 | 前值 | 预测值 | 公布值 | 数据日期 | | 2024-06-11 | 14:00 | 英国失业率 | 英国 | ...

宏观经济与大宗商品市场周报 宏观经济与大宗商品市场周报 全球宏观经济与大宗商品市场周报 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75 号 宏观与大类资产研究中心：王 骏 F0243443 (期货从业)、 Z0002612（投资咨询） 陈 臻 F3084620（期货从业）、Z0018730（投资咨询） 美国一季度 GDP 增速略放缓 日元汇率创近 34 年新低 方正中期期货研究院 宏观与大类资产研究中心 联系人：陈臻 chenzhen1@foundersc.com 第二部分 本周重要数据回顾与下周重要数据提示 ..........................................................................................6 今年一季度美国实际 GDP 录得 5.69 万亿美元,同比和环比分别增长 3%和 0.4%,均低于前值 3.1%和 0.8%。不过，但鉴于美国经济体量较大,该增速实属较高，绝对增量达到 224 亿美元。 —全球宏观经济与大宗商品市场周报 王骏 陈臻 2024 年 4 月 28 日 星期日 第一部分 海外经济解读 ...... ...

Supply Side - Increased maintenance of facilities has led to a contraction in supply, with a 900,000-ton facility planned for shutdown by Satellite Petrochemical for approximately 2 months[2] - The operating rate of ethylene glycol was 61.6% as of April 11, down 1.64% week-on-week[2] Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 90.55% on April 12, unchanged from the previous trading day[2] - Polyester filament sales increased by 10.60% to 51.60% compared to the previous trading day[2] - A new 300,000-ton polyester facility in Shaoxing has commenced production, focusing on light-cut slices and thin films[2] Inventory and Port Dynamics - As of April 11, the main port inventory in East China was 863,400 tons, an increase of 50,600 tons from April 7[2] - The expected arrival volume at the main port in East China from April 12 to April 18 is 105,400 tons[2] Market Logic - General port shipments are average, with slight inventory accumulation pressuring prices, but concentrated maintenance supports prices due to continued supply contraction[2] Trading Strategy - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, suggesting a wait-and-see approach[2]

当服为疑刺行情，免费危险失败打造》 X 86.780 2019 2 86.720 I ଡ 86.860 日看合 开查 图 烘护 持食 29.98万 0.010 最高 87,630 振幅 1.51% | 国 86.320 的价 86.925 成交量 31.66万 1.04 成交额 量比 昨结 86.590 外自 14.49万 今結 86.910 内盘 17.17万 提加 -- 風俗 �f88FJE « ISS 玩字 04:59:55 £6.730 1 04:59:56 E6,740 04:59:56 86.740 1 04:59:59 86,750 04:59:59 86.740 宏观经济与大宗商品市场周报 2024-04 数据来源: Wind、方正中期期货研究院整理 ) 分类了 | 日理 | 网址 | 5分 | 15分 | 30分 | 60分 | | | 会理新疆 | 会的图片 图16 美股短土區 MAMA5.85.73 ↑ MA10.83.76 ↑ MA20.60.78 『 MA60.78.15 『 95.000 95.000 icon 90.000 90.000 87月 85,000 80.000 ag ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The main futures contract for corn closed at 2401 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.04%[4] - The average price of corn in northern China ranged from 2330 to 2350 CNY/ton, down by 10-20 CNY/ton from the previous week[4] - The overall corn consumption by 126 major processing enterprises increased by 1.38% week-on-week, totaling 128.07 million tons[4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inventory of corn at processing enterprises rose by 14.27% to 5.318 million tons as of March 20[4] - The grain selling progress among farmers in 13 provinces reached 74%, which is 9% slower than the same period last year[4] - The overall market remains under pressure due to ample supply and expectations of inventory accumulation for the next year[4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's industrial added value increased by 7.0% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 6.8%[59] - The cumulative fixed asset investment in urban areas rose by 4.2% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 3.0%[59] - The unemployment rate in China was reported at 5.3%, slightly higher than the previous rate of 5.1%[59] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The People's Bank of China maintained the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively[59] - The market sentiment has turned cautious due to external risks and domestic economic pressures, leading to a more watchful trading approach[67]

Group 1: Futures Market Overview - As of February 20, 2024, COMEX gold speculative net long positions increased by 9,094 contracts to 140,262 contracts, indicating a growing bullish sentiment among investors[8] - Speculative net long positions in silver rose by 9,952 contracts to 22,377 contracts, reflecting increased investor optimism for silver[8] - The total open interest for gold was reported at 407,063 contracts, with a decrease of 3.27%[20] Group 2: Fund Position Changes - The management fund's net long position in gold increased by 6.93%[20] - In silver, the management fund's net long position surged by 80.10%[20] - The management fund's net long position in copper decreased by 10.86%[20] Group 3: Market Sentiment Indicators - The dollar index showed a significant decline of 7.04% in net long positions[20] - The net long positions in U.S. Treasury futures decreased by 1.24%[20] - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is mixed, with some sectors showing bullish trends while others are bearish[20]

Group 1: Global Volatility Data - The report covers global volatility data across major stock indices, foreign exchange, commodities, and safe-haven assets, aiming to reflect market risk sentiment and predict asset trends[25] - The latest S&P 500 index stands at 4995.06, showing a 0.82% increase from the previous value of 4954.23[24] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is at 38677.36, reflecting a 0.40% increase from 38521.36[24] Group 2: Currency Analysis - The US Dollar Index is currently at 104.25, down 0.02%, with limited room for further gains as it approaches the 105 mark[5] - The Euro to USD exchange rate is at 1.0779, up 0.02%, indicating a continued strong trend for the Euro despite recent fluctuations[5] - The USD to CNY exchange rate is at 7.2113, down 0.02%, with expectations for the Renminbi to appreciate in 2024, targeting a range of 6.7-7.3[5] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The report highlights that the overall US economic outlook is showing signs of a downward trend, with expectations for a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve[22] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, with a significant likelihood of rate cuts by June 2024[22] - The report indicates that the volatility indices for major markets, such as the VIX for the S&P 500, are currently at 12.83, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.76%[28]