1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to experience oscillations. With the easing of geopolitical tensions, there is a rise in optimistic sentiment, and domestic industrial products, especially those priced in the domestic market, are showing a warming trend, benefiting related non - ferrous metal varieties. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is increasing, and the US dollar index is falling. Each metal variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, the copper market is gradually entering a pattern of strong supply and demand, while the zinc market shows a situation of increasing supply and weak demand. [3][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector oscillates. The implementation of the anti - involution policy in multiple domestic industries has affected the non - ferrous metals sector. The suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days, along with signs of easing geopolitical situations, has led to a partial recovery of non - ferrous metals. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the US dollar is relatively weak. [11] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: Supply is abundant in the short term, but demand is gradually picking up. It is advisable to gradually buy at low prices. The short - term upper pressure range is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. [3] - **Zinc**: In the short term, it may fluctuate and rise, but in the medium term, it is advisable to short at high prices. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 21,800 - 22,000 yuan. [4] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 contract, the upper pressure range is 21,000 - 21,200 yuan, and the lower support range is 20,000 - 20,200 yuan. [5] - **Tin**: It is advisable to conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations. The upper pressure range is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan, and the lower support range is 250,000 - 255,000 yuan. [6] - **Lead**: It is advisable to hold long positions at low prices in the short term. The lower support is around 16,500 - 16,600 yuan, and the upper pressure is around 17,200 - 17,400 yuan. [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel can be shorted on rebounds in the medium term, while stainless steel shows a short - term upward trend. For nickel, the upper pressure is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower support is 115,000 - 116,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the support is around 12,800 - 13,000 yuan, and the upper pressure is around 13,500 - 13,600 yuan. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 79,020 yuan with a 0.00% change, zinc at 22,630 yuan with a 0.18% change, etc. [15] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and short positions of various non - ferrous metal contracts are provided, along with the influencing factors such as changes in the positions of major players. [17] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, and alumina are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 79,200 yuan/ton with a - 0.01% change. [18][20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal, relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fee changes, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationships and cost factors in the industry chain. [22][26][29] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various arbitrage - related charts for non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the ratio changes between domestic and foreign markets, basis trends, and price differences between different contracts, which can be used for arbitrage operations. [60][61][63] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, and aluminum are provided, which can assist in option trading strategies. [77][79][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has been affected by the suspension of mining operations at Jiangxi Jianxiawo and the announced suspension of Zangge Mining, increasing concerns about the production stability of Yichun lithium mica mines. Although the short - term demand - side restocking supports lithium prices, the growth rate of new energy vehicle demand is gradually declining. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is likely to change from surplus to shortage, and prices may return above 100,000 yuan in the third and fourth quarters [5][6]. - For industrial silicon, profit drives the resumption of production in major producing areas, and downstream demand has recovered. The inventory of manufacturers is slowly decreasing, but the market's acceptance of high - price goods is low. The spot price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures trend is more influenced by news, with a strong policy support but limited upside space [7]. - For polysilicon, if the industry's joint production - cut agreement is true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Lithium Carbonate 09**: The market is driven by news, with a support level of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan and a pressure level of 100,000 - 120,000 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Downstream cathode material enterprises are advised to pay attention to low - level stocking or buying hedging opportunities [15]. - **Industrial Silicon 09**: Driven by news, with a support level of 8,200 - 8,300 yuan and a pressure level of 9,200 - 9,300 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [15]. - **Polysilicon 09**: Driven by news, with a support level of 47,000 - 48,000 yuan and a pressure level of 55,000 - 56,000 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to take partial profits or exit long positions on rallies and hedge short put options on rallies [15]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 82,520 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.88%, a trading volume of 1,417,704 lots, an open interest of 356,998 lots, an increase of 39,322 lots in open interest, and 20,829 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,840 yuan, with a daily decrease of 1.78%, a trading volume of 520,504 lots, an open interest of 278,860 lots, an increase of 6,917 lots in open interest, and 50,658 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of polysilicon is 51,800 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.69%, a trading volume of 481,809 lots, an open interest of 136,055 lots, a decrease of 3,684 lots in open interest, and 4,940 lots of warehouse receipts [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons from the previous week. The short - term concern about supply stability supports lithium prices, but the growth rate of new energy vehicle demand is declining [5]. - **Downstream Situation**: No specific data provided, but graphs related to downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are mentioned [26]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Profit drives the resumption of production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan, and the downstream demand has recovered, resulting in a slow reduction of manufacturers' inventory. However, the market's acceptance of high - price goods is low, and the spot price is expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: Graphs related to downstream products such as organic silicon DMC and aluminum alloy are mentioned [37]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: If the joint production - cut agreement is true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited [9]. - **Downstream Situation**: Graphs related to downstream products such as silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules are mentioned [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper in the US will change the global copper trade pattern, and the copper resources flowing to Europe and Asia will increase. The domestic copper market fundamentals are expected to weaken in August, with demand dropping to the annual low and inventory starting to rise. The copper price is expected to face short - term pressure, but the downside space is limited. The copper price may reach the second high of the year in the fourth quarter [8][113]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's economy showed good performance in the first half of the year, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. Policy support may enter a vacuum period in the third quarter. The domestic copper demand is expected to decline to a relative low in the third quarter, and the demand in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter. In the US, the manufacturing industry showed a phased contraction in the third quarter, and the overseas macro situation is expected to be bearish for copper prices in August [11][14][18]. 3.2 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: The global copper mine supply was relatively loose in the second quarter, but the annual growth rate is expected to be low. The supply of copper concentrates is still tight, and the supply gap in 2025 is expected to exceed 1.1 million metric tons. The tight supply at the mine end has not yet affected the smelting end, and the domestic refined copper production has reached a new high. However, the constraints on electrolytic copper production are increasing, and the production is expected to decline in the second half of the year [23][30][39]. - **Recycled Copper**: The supply of recycled copper resources remains tight, which will restrict the domestic electrolytic copper production [46]. - **Import and Export**: The US's exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper will end its siphoning effect on global copper resources. The domestic smelting plants' export willingness will decline, and the domestic supply will increase [50]. 3.3 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Copper Products**: The domestic copper products output reached a record high in the first quarter and declined in the second quarter. The copper demand is expected to be weak in August and better in the fourth quarter. The annual output of copper products is expected to increase by more than 3% year - on - year [55]. - **Sub - sectors**: The output of refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips is expected to decline in August. The output of copper foil has increased against the trend, and the demand for new energy vehicles and power grid investment will continue to support copper demand [58][74][87]. 3.4 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - The global copper inventory showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with prominent structural contradictions. After the US exempted import tariffs on electrolytic copper, the global copper trade pattern will change, and the non - US copper supply will be relatively loose, suppressing copper prices [93]. 3.5 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - The global refined copper supply - demand structure was tight in 2025, with a supply gap of more than 1.1 million metric tons. The supply gap is expected to narrow gradually from 2026 [97]. 3.6 Copper Position Analysis - The total position of COMEX copper futures and options first rose and then fell in the first half of the year, and started to increase in July. The net long position showed an upward trend, and the capital's driving effect on copper prices was still obvious [104]. 3.7 Arbitrage Analysis - The Shanghai - London copper ratio is expected to remain volatile in August. The copper - zinc ratio is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year [109]. 3.8 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - The copper market fundamentals are expected to weaken in August, and the copper price will face short - term pressure. The downstream demand side is advised to slow down the pricing rhythm, and traders holding spot resources are advised to participate in selling hedging operations. The support range for the Shanghai copper main contract price is expected to be 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 79,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the Shanghai Aluminum futures have fluctuated, rising first and then falling, driven by sector resonance and cost - side logic. Alumina has experienced significant fluctuations under the so - called "anti - involution" drive, but the impact on the alumina industry is limited. Cast aluminum alloy's trend is similar to that of Shanghai Aluminum, slightly stronger, with a slightly upward - shifted center of gravity after July's fluctuations. Overall, except for alumina, the aluminum industry chain has been relatively calm and deviated from the fundamentals [94]. - Fundamentally, the upstream of the industry chain remains relatively loose. Ore imports have increased, and domestic mine activities are relatively few. Alumina production capacity utilization is high, and new capacity is gradually being put into operation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have high operating capacity due to cost reduction and profit increase. The downstream processing industry shows a slack - season performance, but profiles, primary alloys, and cable sectors are relatively strong. In the terminal market, State Grid orders in the first half of the year boosted the demand for aluminum cables, but now it's the seasonal slack season with reduced demand. In the third quarter, new centralized tenders are expected to stabilize and improve the situation. The end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the first half and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field have cooled the related industries, and it's hard to see improvement in the next 1 - 2 months. Other traditional demand terminals are relatively stable, with the growth of the automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, expected to slow down. The real - estate sector is still at the bottom, and the home - appliance industry shows resilience due to policy support. In August, the downstream aluminum processing industry is still in the slack season, and it's difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the short term. Low ingot volume in the industry leads to a continuous decline in inventory, and low inventory levels make price fluctuations more likely [94]. - In August, after the "anti - involution" cools down, the commodity market will adjust, and the non - ferrous sector, which has limited previous gains, will also be affected. Alumina will be most affected, and aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are also difficult to maintain at high levels. Attention should be paid to the warehouse - receipt level near the delivery date to prevent short - term price fluctuations. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 20,000 - 20,800; Alumina may return to around 3000, with a main operating range of 2900 - 3500; Cast aluminum alloy will also run weakly in the range of 19,500 - 20,200 [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Alumina**: The MA5 of the Alumina main - contract (SHFE 6273) is 3357.60, MA10 is 3326.40, MA20 is 3217.10, MA40 is 3067.30, and MA60 is 3041.18 [6]. - **Aluminum**: The MA5 of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract (SHFE 2214) is 20672.00, MA10 is 20681.50, MA20 is 20614.75, MA40 is 20499.25, and MA60 is 20337.83 [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The MA5 of the Aluminum Alloy main - contract (SHFE 6463) is 20073.00, MA10 is 20068.50, and MA20 is 19962.50 [10]. 2. Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume reached 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to May 2025, China's bauxite production was 22.017 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. Due to environmental protection and resource depletion, domestic bauxite production has declined, and the degree of external dependence will increase in the long term, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by factors such as shipping costs and geopolitics [15]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. Since 2024, alumina production has shown a slight increase, and in 2025, with the resumption of production and new capacity, the growth rate has further increased, and it is expected to achieve double - digit growth for the whole year. As of July 25, 2025, the total alumina inventory (market + factory) was 1.7235 million tons, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year [20][23]. 3. Middle - Stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was about 1.924 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 12.499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Since 2024, primary aluminum imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is relatively stable with a slight increase. Since 2024, the operating capacity has continued to grow due to sufficient hydropower in the southwest and new capacity investment. In 2025, with the decline in alumina prices and the increase in profits, the operating capacity has maintained a high - level operation [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.57% year - on - year and decreased by 3.23% month - on - month. It is expected that the aluminum - water ratio will decline in July [35]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: As of July 29, 2025, the full cost of self - supplied power aluminum plants is about 14,227 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 652 yuan/ton; the full cost of grid - connected power aluminum plants is about 18,455 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 2,124 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [39]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: In 2024, the aluminum ingot inventory change was small. In 2025, the inventory first decreased and then increased. Now it has entered the slack season and is in the process of slight inventory accumulation [42]. 4. Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry has been low, except for the aluminum foil and aluminum plate - strip sectors with an operating rate of 70% - 90%. In 2025, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work varied. In the slack season, the operating rate of each sector declined, but the profile sector showed a slight increase [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In June 2025, the import volume of un - wrought aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 20.2%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 542,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. The export volume in June was 25,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 66%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 120,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [53]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: From January to June 2025, China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production reached 3.5593 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.65% [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has increased, especially after entering the slack season in May, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term [59]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products; from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Affected by global trade barriers and tariffs, aluminum product exports may continue to decline [63]. 5. Industrial Chain Terminals - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, real - estate investment, sales area, and new - construction area all declined. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, and it will take time to recover [69][72]. - **Automobile**: In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The development of new - energy vehicles is rapid, but there is an "anti - involution" expectation, and the growth rate may slow down [75]. - **Home Appliance**: In June 2025, the production of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased to varying degrees. However, since 2025, the growth rate of the three major home appliances has slowed down, and it is expected to weaken further in the second half of the year [78]. - **Power Grid Investment**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China plans to invest 388 billion yuan in 38 UHV projects. In 2025, at least 2 AC and 4 DC UHV lines will start construction. From January to June, the national power grid project investment was 254 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.7%, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth [81]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 212.2 GW, a year - on - year increase of 107%. It is expected that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 250 GW in 2025, and the global new installed capacity will reach about 580 GW. After the end of the first - half rush - installation and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field, the industry has cooled down [84]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China imported 156,000 tons of scrap aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The import of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong due to the large price difference between refined and scrap aluminum [87]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - **Alumina**: In 2025, the supply of alumina has become more relaxed, and it is expected to maintain this state in the second half of the year [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In 2025, the supply - demand situation of electrolytic aluminum has deteriorated compared with 2024, and the degree of oversupply is expected to be more serious [89]. 7. Aluminum Price Seasonal Analysis Based on a 5 - year statistics up to 2025, the expected return of aluminum price from January 1st to December 31st is 1.15%, with 3 times of price increase and 2 times of price decrease. The maximum amplitude is 9.05%, the minimum amplitude is 4.63%, and the average amplitude is 6.56% [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is facing high macro - uncertainty, and the market is seeking a direction. Each product in the chain has different supply - demand and cost situations, which will affect their prices. For example, crude oil prices may be strong first and then weak, PX prices are expected to be first up and then down, PTA may have a weak fundamental situation with a possible downward trend in absolute price, and ethylene glycol and polyester staple fiber prices may also fluctuate based on their supply - demand and cost conditions [4][16][49][94][137]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In July 2025, the polyester industry chain was significantly affected by market sentiment, with prices rising first and then falling. In the first half of the month, prices were in a sideways shock due to limited supply - demand changes. In the second half, prices rose with the "anti - involution" sentiment and then declined at the end of the month [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil - In July 2025, crude oil prices were in a narrow - range shock due to the confrontation between production increase and peak demand. The price soared due to the expected sanctions on Russia. In August, supply is expected to continue to rise, demand may decline steadily, and prices may be strong first and then weak, with attention needed on tariff negotiations and US sanctions on Russia [9][16]. 3.3 PX - In July 2025, PX supply was stable with开工 around 80%. PX - Nap spread was strong. In August, supply will increase, but demand will also rise due to PTA's new capacity, and the spread will remain strong. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and its price is predicted to be first up and then down, with an operation suggestion of range - band trading [29][43][49]. 3.4 PTA - In July 2025, PTA prices first decreased and then increased, with processing fees reaching a record low. In August, supply will increase due to new capacity, demand will remain stable, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. The price may decline under cost guidance, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51][65][94]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - In July 2025, ethylene glycol prices were supported by low inventory and then rose due to cost and market sentiment, and fell at the end of the month. In August, supply will increase, demand will remain stable, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price may decline under cost influence, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [97][115][137]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber - In July 2025, polyester staple fiber had weak supply - demand, and its price followed the cost with a first - up - then - down trend. In 2025, the capacity expansion slowed down, and the production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The processing fee fluctuated around the break - even line [140][146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The approach of the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to trigger a new round of upward trend in precious metals [2]. - With the US employment market showing signs of weakness and the White House's increasing influence on the Fed, once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will gain strong upward momentum [35]. - The US dollar is in the early stage of a new downward cycle, and the prices of gold and silver denominated in US dollars have the macro - logic to rise continuously in the next 10 years [38]. - The current gold and silver markets are in the third - round bull market, and there is still significant room for price increases in the future [74][77]. - There is a high probability that shorting the gold - silver ratio will become a market consensus in the second half of the year, and silver may become one of the best - performing commodities [69][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Gold - In July, gold entered a low - volatility period. Shanghai gold had a cumulative monthly increase of only 0.35%, while London gold fell 0.72% with the lowest monthly volatility since April [13]. - Factors affecting the gold market in July included the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, the cease - fire in the Middle East, concerns about the Fed's independence, new tariff agreements between the US and Japan and the EU, and the "Genius Act" that diverted funds to cryptocurrencies [13][14]. Silver - In July, the silver market experienced a roller - coaster ride. London silver rose 1.44% with an amplitude over 10%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.5% with an amplitude over 9% [16]. - In the first three weeks of July, the risk appetite increased, and factors such as the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, strong non - farm payrolls data, and Russia's inclusion of silver in foreign reserves boosted silver prices. In the last week, factors like the decline in copper prices, the fall in gold prices, and the rise of cryptocurrencies led to a sharp correction in silver prices [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has declined by 10% since the beginning of the year. The "Lake Tahoe Agreement" aims to reshape the US economy by increasing tariffs and promoting manufacturing reshoring, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. Central banks around the world are accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold holdings [21]. The Pennsylvania Plan - This plan aims to patch the flaws in the Lake Tahoe Agreement by shifting the demand for US Treasury bonds from external to domestic. It uses regulatory measures, tax incentives, and other means to encourage domestic capital to buy US Treasury bonds, with stablecoins as a financial innovation tool [22]. US Employment and Inflation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed resilience, but in July, non - farm payrolls data were worse than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised downward. Inflation has shown signs of rising, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [31][34]. The Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged since December last year. With the weakening of the US employment market, the influence of the White House on the Fed is expected to increase. Once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will rise [35]. The US Dollar Cycle - The US dollar has a cycle of about 17 years, and currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle. The negative correlation between precious metals and the US dollar has been challenged, and a decline in the US dollar index will strongly boost the prices of gold and silver [38]. The Changing Role of Gold's Safe - Haven Attribute - Gold's safe - haven attribute has weakened, and future price increases may require a re - definition of gold, such as its role as an anti - inflation asset or a risk asset [41]. The Increase in US Treasury Bond Scale - The US federal government's debt is expected to continue to rise, and historically, an increase in debt has been associated with rising gold prices [44]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, the pace of central bank gold purchases has slowed down, but the total amount is still considerable. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, which will support gold prices [50]. Gold Investment Demand - In the first half of the year, gold investment demand increased significantly, especially the demand for gold ETFs. This growth offset the slowdown in central bank gold purchases and supported gold prices [53]. Global Physical Silver Supply and Demand - The supply of silver has been growing slowly, mainly due to limited growth in mined silver and recycled silver. The demand for silver in the industrial sector, especially in the photovoltaic and automotive industries, has increased significantly. The global silver market has been in a supply - shortage situation for four consecutive years, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2025 [57][60][64]. Silver's Undervaluation and the Gold - Silver Ratio - Silver is considered undervalued compared to gold and copper. The gold - silver ratio has been high this year but has started to repair since June, and this trend is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year [69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Summary and Outlook - In August, gold is expected to break through and rise. The price of London gold is expected to be between $3250 - 3300/oz and $3500 - 3600/oz, and the price of Shanghai gold is expected to be between 770 - 780 yuan/g and 830 - 850 yuan/g [79][80]. - Silver may have a strong rebound. In July, although it adjusted in the short term, its medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged. The price of London silver is expected to be between $36 - 37/oz and $40 - 42/oz, and the price of Shanghai silver is expected to be between 9000 - 9100 yuan/kg and 9700 - 9800 yuan/kg [79][80].

Report Title - "Pork Futures and Options August 2025 Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy expectation has led to a reversal in the futures monthly spread. The domestic inflation expectation is expected to rise, and the pig futures price once soared. The far-month 2601 contract price has shifted to a premium structure relative to the near-month and spot prices [3]. - The marginal risk brought by tariffs will gradually decrease, and the market's extreme situation probability such as global economic recession and significant damage to commodity trade has declined. The domestic market is focusing on hedging policies, and the market is "desensitized" to Sino-US relations [3]. - The overall financial attribute of agricultural products is relatively weak, and they are less affected by the macro environment. Currently, the prices of basic agricultural products are at a historical low level, with low valuations and potential for rebound [3]. - Pig enterprises have experienced about 12 months of high-level profitability. Although the industry's absolute production capacity has not increased significantly, the production efficiency per sow has been greatly improved. With policy expectations, the overcapacity of breeding sows is unlikely [3]. - The pig price in 2025 may not be worse than that in 2023 [3]. - Regarding the pig futures price in the second half of 2025, if the macro expectation continues to strengthen, there are conditions for the undervalued commodities to have their valuations revised upwards. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the futures price is below the breeding cost of 13,500 - 14,000 points, or buy call options near the cost [4]. Summary by Directory 2025 July and August Market Review and Outlook - In July, the "anti-involution" atmosphere drove up the prices of risk assets, and the domestic inflation expectation was expected to rise. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with leading group enterprises, emphasizing measures such as reducing the inventory of breeding sows, controlling the slaughter weight, and restricting secondary fattening, which released a policy signal to support the market [3]. - The soybean and corn prices have reached the bottom range, and it is difficult for the feed cost to continue to decrease in 2025. The current increase in production capacity is mainly reflected in the utilization efficiency rather than the absolute production capacity. The continuous improvement in efficiency has a technical bottleneck, and there is a "scar effect" among retail investors. Therefore, although the upstream of the pig industry has experienced a long period of profitability, it has not accumulated excessive risks [4]. 2025 July Pig Spot and Futures Price Review - In July, the "anti-involution" had little impact on agricultural products, and the volatility of the sector was relatively low. The pig spot and futures prices showed a divergent trend, and the "anti-involution" policy led to a surge in the futures price [6][8]. - From January to July 2025, the agricultural product index showed different trends due to various factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, tariff policies, and seasonal factors. In July, the breeding sector hit a new low [7]. - The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at a relatively low level in history, and the ratio of pig futures to feed is close to the historical low level [10][13]. - In 2025, the piglet price in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the feed price fluctuated overall. The terminal consumption did not show significant improvement, but the average price of pork carcasses was higher than that in 2023. The prices of beef, mutton, poultry, eggs, vegetables, and aquatic products showed different trends [18][21][24]. - According to historical data, the pig spot price in the second quarter is prone to seasonal increases, and the price in August has a high probability of rising [39][40]. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The current inventory of breeding sows is in the green range, and the cumulative increase compared with March 2024 is about 3% [43][44]. - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared with previous years, the price of replacement gilts has been stable, and the market speculation enthusiasm has declined [45][48]. - The production efficiency per sow has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. In May 2025, the pig slaughter volume continued to increase, but the increase may not be large [50][54][55]. Listed Pig Enterprises - The profitability of listed companies has shown significant differentiation, the monthly sales of piglets of listed companies have decreased, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high level [59][62][64]. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - From July to August, the hot weather and the relatively high weight of pigs are the main risks affecting the spot price. In July, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly but was lower than the level in 2023. The import volume of pork and offal has declined from the high level, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly at a low level in June 2025 [68][71][73]. - The current average monthly profitability is at the historical median level, and the profit of purchasing piglets in July is close to the break - even point [79]. Pig Futures Market - In July, the futures price broke away from the spot price and soared, and the futures price has shifted to a premium relative to the spot price. The pig index rebounded from the historical low, and the trading volume and open interest increased significantly [80][81]. - The 2503 and 2505 contracts' futures prices finally rebounded from the low level to make up for the discount to the spot price, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts are near the breeding cost. The near - month contracts have shifted from a discount to a premium relative to the spot price, and the far - month contracts' premium in the peak season has widened under the policy support [84][87][90]. - The basis is stronger than in the same period of previous years. Attention should be paid to the way of the regression of the pig spot and futures prices in the third quarter, and the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage [93][96]. - The volatility of the pig 2509 contract has rebounded [102]. Pig Market Summary - In the third quarter, the macro environment may be the main driving force for the rise of the pig price. Attention should be paid to the real improvement of key consumption [104]. - In trading, it is advisable to buy the 2511 contract at low levels, or short the 2601 contract and long the 2605 contract at an appropriate time. For options, sell the wide - straddle price - spread combination when the volatility is high [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends of red date futures and spot in July 2025, domestic supply - demand situation, and the impact of weather on production, and also offers a technical analysis and outlook for red date futures prices [6][29][48]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Red Date Futures and Spot Price Trends - In July 2025, red date futures prices rose first and then fell, with the open - interest at a high level since listing. The spot prices opened high and moved low, with an overall low - level oscillatory rebound. At the end of July, the premium of red date futures contracts (2509 and 2601) over the spot (standard Cangzhou special - grade) widened [6][29][35]. - The red date futures and apple futures showed a weak correlation. The monthly price changes of red date 01 contracts and spot prices over the years were presented in the form of charts [39][42][47]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024 production season, Xinjiang's grey jujube output was 700,000 tons, an increase of 230,800 tons or 67.10% compared to the 2023 production season. It is predicted that Xinjiang's red date output in 2025 may reach around 500,000 tons [50]. - The report also showed the production data of different regions in 2024 and the inventory situation of red date spot from 2019/20 to 2024/25E [49][54]. 3.3 Pay Attention to the Weather in Producing Areas in August - The growth stages of red dates include the germination period (April), early - flowering period (May), full - flowering period (May - June), young - fruit period (May - June), rapid fruit - growth period (July - August), maturity period (September - October), leaf - falling period (November), and dormancy period (November - March of the next year) [58]. - Abnormal weather such as late spring cold, summer high - temperature and drought, strong winds, continuous rainstorms, and physiological diseases (such as fruit cracking) can affect red date production and quality. In August, attention should be paid to the occurrence of "dry - hot wind" and rainstorms in the producing areas [60][61][68]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Future Outlook of Red Date Futures Prices - A technical analysis and future outlook of red date futures prices (rebounding from the historical bottom range) were provided, but specific content was not detailed in the given text [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors show complex market trends. In the soft commodity sector, sugar prices are expected to be volatile, pulp prices may adjust, and cotton prices may be weak. In the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and jujube prices may be affected by weather and consumption factors [3][4][6][7]. - Due to factors such as changes in the supply and demand of underlying products, international market conditions, and policy expectations, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety, including interval operation, option strategies, and short - term empty allocation [3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2510: Adopt a bearish approach. The fundamental changes are limited, and the sentiment has ebbed. The support range is 7300 - 7400, and the pressure range is 8200 - 8300 [7][16]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall sentiment of commodities is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band operation. There are both long and short factors, and the upward pressure on futures prices is significant. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5880 - 5900 [3][16]. - Pulp 2507: Light - position short allocation. The fundamentals change little. After the market sentiment cools down, pulp prices may adjust, but the probability of falling to the June low is low. The support range is 5200 - 5250, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [4][5][16]. - Cotton 2509: Exit long positions. The previous bearish factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [6][7][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information** - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55% [17]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 616,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,400 tons. As of July 31, it was 576,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 410,500 tons [17]. - Different institutions have different estimates of apple production. Zhuochuang estimates a slight reduction, while Steel Union estimates a slight increase [17]. - **Spot Market** - The price of cold - storage apples in the production area remained stable this week. After the high - price opening of early - maturing apples, the transaction price declined. The sales volume of cold - storage apples in the sales area slightly increased, and the price remained stable [18][19]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%. The inventory in the Hebei market decreased, and the price of good - quality products increased. The price in the Guangdong market remained stable [20]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market Consulting firm StoneX lowered Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 40.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The spot price of sugar in China remained stable [22]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported bleached softwood pulp was stable, and the price of bleached hardwood pulp decreased by $10/ton in July compared to June. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper industry chain changed little [4][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - India's new - season cotton sowing progress is behind last year, with the sown area as of July 25 being 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% compared to the same period last year [26]. - Pakistan imposed an 18% sales tax on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2510 closed at 7814, down 101, or 1.28%. - Jujube 2509 closed at 9580, down 60, or 0.62%. - Sugar 2509 closed at 5793, down 11, or 0.19%. - Pulp 2509 closed at 5232, down 94, or 1.76%. - Cotton 2509 closed at 13650, down 105, or 0.76% [27]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period and down 0.25 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 520 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 120 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of cotton was 15325 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan from the previous period and down 95 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis content is provided, only the figure numbers are given, such as Figure 14 for the basis of Apple 10th month [38]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 67, down 33 from the previous period and up 10 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1115, down 1165 from the previous period and down 775 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 138, unchanged from the previous period and down 193 year - on - year, expected to be weak within a range, and the recommended strategy is to go long on 01 and short on 09 [47]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation Only the figure numbers for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [56][58][63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple's warehouse receipt volume is 0, unchanged from the previous period and year - on - year. - Jujube's warehouse receipt volume is 8739, unchanged from the previous period and down 2131 year - on - year. - Sugar's warehouse receipt volume is 19473, down 47 from the previous period and up 3357 year - on - year. - Pulp's warehouse receipt volume is 254637, down 340 from the previous period and down 246468 year - on - year. - Cotton's warehouse receipt volume is 8940, down 115 from the previous period and down 2400 year - on - year [77]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data Only the figure numbers for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [79][81][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The exemption of tariffs on imported refined copper in the US will significantly change the global copper trade flow in the second half of the year, with copper resources shifting to non - US markets. The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper are expected to become looser [4]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with imports and processing fees rising, and downstream demand weakening [5]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a weak market sentiment. Aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy are all recommended to be treated with a short - selling mindset [6]. - The tin price is suppressed by the correction of the non - ferrous sector, with weak fundamentals [7]. - The lead price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and macro - orientation [8][9]. - The nickel market has an overall oversupply pattern, and the stainless steel market is affected by the black series and the weakness of nickel, with both supply and demand being weak [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the profit - taking in the domestic anti - involution stage. The trade situation is gradually becoming clear, and the non - ferrous metals are in a weak adjustment stage. Key events this week include Sino - US trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate decision, and important economic data releases [13][14][15]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [4][16]. - **Zinc**: Supply increases while demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 21,600 - 21,800 and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,100 [5][18]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment is weak. Short - selling is recommended for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, with corresponding support and pressure ranges [6][18]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold short positions, with a support range of 250,000 - 255,000 and a pressure range of 270,000 - 290,000 [7][18]. - **Lead**: It is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 16,600 - 16,800 and a pressure range of 17,200 - 17,400 [9][19]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 115,000 - 116,000 and a pressure range of 122,000 - 123,000 [10][19]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be short - biased, with a support range of 12,300 - 12,400 and a pressure range of 12,800 - 13,000 [10][19]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Price Changes**: Copper closed at 78,040 with a decline of 1.13%; zinc at 22,345 with a decline of 1.43%; aluminum at 20,510 with a decline of 0.56%; alumina at 3222 with a decline of 3.13%; tin at 265,290 with a decline of 0.96%; lead at 16,735 with a decline of 0.92%; nickel at 119,830 with a decline of 1.55%; stainless steel at 12,805 with a decline of 0.89%; and cast aluminum alloy at 19,950 with a decline of 0.60% [20][21]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the net long - short position changes and the influence of different forces on various varieties [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][26]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationship and market conditions of each metal [27][31][33]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides charts on the arbitrage relationships of various non - ferrous metals, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [57][60][62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [74][75][77].