1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price lacks obvious driving force and moves towards the path of least resistance. The market is waiting for the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The overall oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1] - For fuel oil, the supply is sufficient, and the subsequent upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [3] - The asphalt market in August is expected to gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [3] - The polyester market is expected to have short - term oscillatory prices for PTA and strong low - level support for ethylene glycol, and attention should be paid to device changes [4] - The short - term rubber price is expected to be strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention to factors such as production during the peak season and anti - dumping investigations [6] - Methanol is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price oscillation [6] - Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited upward space and narrow - range price oscillation [8] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly, with supply remaining high and demand gradually recovering [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. However, OPEC+ production increased in July. The EIA report shows that US oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but may decline in 2026. API data shows changes in US oil inventories. The oil price is oscillatory [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and the upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic, with an oscillatory trend [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover with the improvement of weather. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, polyester contracts showed different trends. The supply of PTA and ethylene glycol is recovering, and the prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to device changes [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber contracts rose. The short - term rubber price is strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol showed certain price characteristics. The Iranian device load has recovered, and the port inventory has increased, but the downward space is limited, with a near - weak and far - strong structure and narrow - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, polyolefin showed certain price and profit characteristics. The supply will remain high after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price showed different trends in different regions. The supply is high, the demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 12 and 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. In July, OPEC+ production increased, and Saudi Arabia's market supply and reported production showed different trends [11] - The EIA report shows that due to the improvement of well productivity, US oil production will reach a record high in 2025, but oil price decline will lead to a decrease in production in 2026 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][33][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [47][48][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, etc. [62][63][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper fluctuated higher. US inflation pressure is controllable, strengthening the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. There are differences in views on the future of US copper. The domestic "Golden September" peak - season expectation and anti - involution policy expectations support prices, and copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There are signs of a turn in the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The overall fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US 7 - month CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI reached 3.1%. The market has different views on US copper due to over - inventory. Domestic factors support prices, and copper is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: AO2509 closed at 3287 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase, AL2509 at 20800 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and AD2511 at 20200 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton. There are changes in the supply - demand and profit distribution of the aluminum industry [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.23% to 15360 dollars/ton, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 450 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The overall fundamentals are stable [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Aluminum**: The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. The total inventory decreased by 3913 tons, and the alumina inventory increased by 3.9 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 600 yuan/ton. The total nickel inventory increased by 444 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the social inventory increased by 0.77 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 22.16 dollars/ton [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [43][45][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: The current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: An analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing timely policy interpretations and writing in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi: An analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has been rising recently due to three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend is strong, and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefits upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, capital inflows due to RMB appreciation under a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit and loan data lead to more entity liquidity flowing into the stock market. For stock index futures, a strategy of selling put options can be considered [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market this week. In the short term, the bond market is lack of directional drive and will mainly fluctuate, although the expected weak credit data in July may provide some support [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market continued to rise with increased trading volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.34% with a trading volume of 1.91 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also had varying degrees of increase. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to be an important path to stabilize and increase inflation. The long - term, medium - term, and short - term logics for the recent stock market rise are analyzed, and a selling put options strategy is recommended [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year treasury bond futures contracts showed different trends. The central bank conducted 1146 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. The bond market is under pressure from the strong stock market and will mainly fluctuate in the short term [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all rose, with increases of 0.72%, 0.64%, 0.70%, and 0.47% respectively. For stock indices, the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also increased. For treasury bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL had different degrees of decline [3]. Market News - On August 11, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff suspension measures on China for another 90 days [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the basis trends of various stock indices [6][7][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts present the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18]. Exchange Rates - Charts display the trends of the US dollar to RMB central parity rate, euro to RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar to RMB, forward euro to RMB, US dollar index, euro to US dollar, British pound to US dollar, and US dollar to Japanese yen [21][22][23][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the index trends, sector - related impacts on indices, and data on futures basis, cost, and points differentials for various indices on August 12th. 3. Summary of Each Section Index Trends - On August 12th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% to 3665.92 points with a trading volume of 778.161 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% to 11351.63 points with a trading volume of 1103.359 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28% with a trading volume of 409.923 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index rose 0.41% with a trading volume of 290.495 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.61% with a trading volume of 109.688 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.52% with a trading volume of 383.088 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 19.67 points, with sectors like electronics, communication, and non - bank finance pulling the index up, and non - ferrous metals pulling it down [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 26.4 points, with electronics, machinery, and non - bank finance pulling it up, and non - ferrous metals and national defense and military industry pulling it down [2]. - The CSI 300 rose 21.32 points, with electronics, communication, and non - bank finance pulling it up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 17.11 points, with electronics, banks, and non - bank finance pulling it up, and food and beverage pulling it down [2]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 5.26, IM01 of - 76.54, IM02 of - 264.55, and IM03 of - 446.98 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 8.04, IC01 of - 74.4, IC02 of - 229.64, and IC03 of - 365.56 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 1.26, IF01 of - 13.73, IF02 of - 42.76, and IF03 of - 74.94 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.03, IH01 of 0.34, IH02 of 0.66, and IH03 of 0.06 [13]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are provided at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][24][25][26].

Research Views Overall Opinions - Corn is expected to fluctuate. The September contract continued to fluctuate on Tuesday, with the forward contract prices showing strength. The 2603 contract led the increase, and the prices stabilized and rebounded. Northeast corn prices were slightly weak, while those in North China remained stable with limited adjustments. The prices in the sales areas were generally stable, with a slight rebound in some ports. Technically, the corn futures prices are in a consolidation period after a short - term rapid decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. The CBOT soybeans rose on Tuesday due to the bullish supply - demand report. The USDA August supply - demand report adjusted down the global sunflower seed production, U.S. soybean planting area, and global oilseed production. In China, concerns about fourth - quarter supply, the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, and higher import costs all pushed up the protein meal futures prices. The strategy is a long - only mindset and month - to - month positive spread participation [1]. - Oils are expected to rise. The BMD palm oil rose on Tuesday due to favorable export data. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the same period last month. The MPOB report showed that the palm oil inventory was lower than expected. In China, the three major oils were strong, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also had a positive impact on the market. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1]. - Eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. The main 2509 contract of eggs stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. The terminal digestion was stable, and most traders purchased as needed. The egg prices in most sales areas were stable. In the short term, the fundamentals remained weak due to high chicken inventory and weak demand. In the future, there may be a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but the high is likely to be lower than last year. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to fluctuate. The main 2511 contract of pig futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday and then declined slightly at the end of the session. The spot price of pigs decreased slightly. After continuous price cuts, the breeding side showed resistance to price cuts, but due to weak demand, prices in many northern regions decreased, leading to a slight decline in the national average price. In the future, as the weather cools down, demand is expected to recover, which will support pig prices [2]. Specific Data and Events - The USDA August supply - demand report adjusted down the 2025/26 global sunflower seed production by 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million tons, the U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres, and the global oilseed production by 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million tons. The U.S. soybean single - yield was adjusted up by 1.1 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre, the export volume was adjusted down by 40 million bushels, and the ending inventory was adjusted down by 20 million bushels to 290 million bushels [1]. - The preliminary result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed showed that there was an anti - dumping nature, and a 75.8% margin needed to be levied, which would limit the import of Canadian rapeseed [1]. - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 was 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase compared to the same period last month. The MPOB report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory was 2.11 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons [1]. Market Information - Since August 12, 2025, at 12:01, the additional tariff measures on U.S. imports have been adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on U.S. imports will continue to be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [3]. - The preliminary result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed showed that there was an anti - dumping nature, and starting from August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% margin when importing Canadian rapeseed [3]. - The USDA August supply - demand report showed that the expected U.S. soybean production in 2025/2026 was 4.292 billion bushels, the ending inventory was 290 million bushels, and the single - yield was 53.6 bushels per acre, all different from market expectations [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spread charts for various agricultural products, including corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybean 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, egg 9 - 1, and pig 9 - 1 [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report presents contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and pig [14][18][24][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and has rich experience in leading research teams [28]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title and has published many articles in industry journals [28]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher for eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures. She has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by mainstream media [28].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Sideways [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish Sideways [1] - Glass: Bullish Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices were firm and sideways on Tuesday, with the 09 contract closing at 1727 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the 01 contract at 1756 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The spot market continued to weaken. The daily urea production was 19.38 tons, up 0.08 tons. The demand was divided, with domestic agricultural demand in the off - season and low - end purchasing interest rising. The spot market showed signs of stabilization, and the futures had support from related products like coal, but there was limited market drive, so a sideways view was recommended [1]. - Soda ash futures prices rose on Tuesday, with the 01 contract closing at 1409 yuan/ton, up 5.31%, and the 09 contract at 1292 yuan/ton, up 3.61%. The spot prices were mostly stable. The rise was affected by environmental protection expectations in Qinghai. The industry's operating rate was stable at 87.13%. The market worried about future supply decline, and with support from related futures prices, the short - term performance was expected to be positive, but chasing up was not recommended [1]. - Glass futures prices rose on Tuesday, with the 09 contract closing at 1073 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, and the 01 contract at 1240 yuan/ton, up 2.4%. The spot market was weak. The in - production capacity was stable, and the daily melting amount was 15.96 tons. The demand follow - up was weak. The futures were driven by rising raw material prices, but a trend - up needed more drivers [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On August 12, the urea futures warehouse receipts on Zhengshang were 3823, up 200 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 0 [4]. - On August 12, the urea daily production was 19.38 tons, up 0.08 tons from the previous day and 2.89 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.71%, 8.92 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - On August 12, small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong were 1720 yuan/ton, down 10; in Henan 1730 yuan/ton, down 10; in Hebei 1750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Anhui 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu 1730 yuan/ton, down 10; in Shanxi 1630 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 12, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts on Zhengshang were 9275, up 1560 from the previous day, with valid forecasts of 1919; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 3543, unchanged [6]. - On August 12, soda ash spot prices in North China were 1250 yuan/ton for light and 1350 yuan/ton for heavy; in Central China 1180 yuan/ton for light and 1300 yuan/ton for heavy; in East China 1160 yuan/ton for light, down 20, and 1300 yuan/ton for heavy, etc. [6] - On August 12, the soda ash industry capacity utilization was 87.13%, the same as the previous day [7]. - On August 12, the average price of the float glass market was 1170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.96 tons, unchanged [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, spreads, spot price trends, and futures price spreads of urea, soda ash, and glass, with data from iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][11][13][16][18][20][21] Group 5: Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different commodities and have multiple honors and achievements [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 2% to 82,520 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,500 yuan/ton to 78,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,500 yuan/ton to 75,800 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 69,690 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,440 tons to 20,829 tons [3]. - Yaobao Company's La Negra factory in Chile has resumed operation after an accident last week, and it is currently under investigation in Chile [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons, with lithium extraction from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lakes, and recycled materials all increasing. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons this week, with upstream and other links destocking and downstream restocking [3]. - Against the background of anti - involution and sustained demand, the short - term production suspension issue has boosted market sentiment. After a rapid rise, there may be a correction. The production suspension of mines can adjust the supply - demand balance of lithium resources, but the duration of the suspension is not clear. As prices strengthen, some enterprises start to resume production, and it is expected that overseas imports will gradually increase. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual supply of lithium salts, the increase in overseas imports (with a certain time lag), whether the terminal customer supply decreases, and whether there are subsequent problems with the mining licenses of other mines [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes of lithium carbonate and related products are presented [3]. - Information about the accident and resumption of operation of Yaobao Company's Chilean factory is reported [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory situations in the lithium market are analyzed, and future market trends and points][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - A table shows the prices and price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from August 11 - 12, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium salts, and cathode materials. Another part shows the prices of some products from August 1 - 8, 2025, such as battery cells and batteries [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Ore Prices - Charts display the price trends of lithium - related ores like spodumene concentrate, lepid][8]. 3.3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [9][11][13]. 3.3.3 Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between different lithium - related products, such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as other spreads and the basis [16][17][18]. 3.3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate [20][22][26]. 3.3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, lithium cobaltate battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [28][30][31]. 3.3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in the lithium carbonate market [32][34][36]. 3.3.7 Production Costs - A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 [37].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report date: August 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - I05 contract: Today's closing price is 779.5 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton from the previous day; I05 - I09 spread is -28.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - I09 contract: Today's closing price is 807.5 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; I09 - I01 spread is 6.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - I01 contract: Today's closing price is 801.0 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; I01 - I05 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Group 3: Basis Information 3.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties like Carajás fines (Carajás fines: today's price is 888 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; today's basis is 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day), different basis data are presented, with price changes ranging from 0 to 12.0 yuan/ton and basis changes from -5 to 9 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Basis Chart - There are charts showing basis for different types of iron ore including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc. [8][9][10] Group 4: Exchange Rule Adjustments - Since December 2nd, the main contract of iron ore is I2205. Some adjustments are made to the deliverable brands and related rules: 4 new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron and Steel concentrate powder, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate powder) are added with brand premium of 0 starting from I2202; brand premiums of some existing varieties are adjusted; quality difference and premium rules for substitutes are modified; 4 more brands (Taigang concentrate powder, Magang concentrate powder, Minmetals standard powder, SP10 powder) are added as deliverable brands with brand premium of 0 [11] - The adjusted deliverable brands and premiums apply to I2312 and subsequent contracts. Starting from the first trading day after the last delivery day of I2311, the exchange will handle the registration of standard warehouse receipts for iron ore futures according to the adjusted rules [12] Group 5: Variety Spread Information 5.1 Variety Spread Data - For example, PB lump - PB fines spread is 142.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; PB fines - mixed fines spread is 74.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton from the previous day, with various spread data presented [13] 5.2 Variety Spread Charts - There are charts showing different types of spreads such as lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [14][17][21] Group 6: Research Team Information - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with their respective positions, work experience, and qualification numbers introduced [25]

Group 1: Research View - On August 12, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.12%. The position increased by 6,917 lots to 279,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 150 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.69%. The position decreased by 3,684 lots to 136,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials also dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 6,005 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south of industrial silicon continued to resume production, and the downstream crystalline silicon production increased significantly. The supply and demand showed a double - increase pattern, and it will continue to fluctuate following the sentiment of coking coal in the short term. Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in many provinces put forward a joint initiative against involution. In the short term, relevant news may become an important driver for the industrial silicon futures market [2]. - After the polysilicon futures market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market traded on a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit is relatively obvious. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton on August 11 to 8,905 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 8,860 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - The spot prices of most grades of industrial silicon remained stable, except for some minor price increases in the 421 grade in certain regions. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened from 90 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 102 to 50,658 (daily), and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 880 to 251,700 tons (weekly). The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,100 tons to 444,000 tons [4]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 52,985 yuan/ton on August 11 to 51,800 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 1,185 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 52,985 yuan/ton to 50,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,480 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of some polysilicon materials increased, while the prices of P - type polysilicon materials remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 8,485 yuan/ton to 6,005 yuan/ton [4]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 240 to 4,940 (daily). The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons (weekly), and the factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 12,500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [25][27][28]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. Macro - factors include market attention on US trade negotiation results and recession concerns from US economic data. Fundamentally, there are still differences in views on the future of US copper. Excessive inventory in the US may lead to continuous weakness in US copper, causing inventory relocation risks and impacting global copper prices. The approaching "Golden September" peak season in China provides some price support, and the probability of a sharp short - term decline is low. Currently, copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the situation [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. In August, the profits in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. Alumina's复产 rhythm increases the expectation of oversupply, with callback pressure but limited deep - decline space due to short - term cost support. The signing of an aluminum cooperation agreement between India and Russia raises the expectation of US tariff increases on the two countries, increasing trade cost concerns. As "Golden September" approaches, the stocking in the white - goods and automotive sectors starts in advance. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum shows signs of change, with the spot price changing from premium to discount. Aluminum prices are in a stage of "time for space" with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.39% and沪镍 rose 0.66%. LME inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE仓单 increased. The raw material prices of stainless steel showed differentiation, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks with a slightly slower de - stocking speed. The overall fundamentals changed little and remained in a volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight narrow - range fluctuations. Macro - factors and US copper inventory issues impact the market. The approaching peak season in China provides support, and the price is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: Different products in the aluminum industry showed different trends. There are changes in industry profits, trade cost concerns, and supply - demand signs. Aluminum alloy is in a cost - demand tug - of - war [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increases, changes in inventory, and stable fundamentals with a volatile trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, inventory changes in different locations, and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and CIF提单 [3]. - **Lead**: Stable average price, changes in升贴水 and沪铅 spreads, and changes in lead - related prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, raw materials, and downstream products. Inventory changes in different locations and升贴水 changes [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, raw materials, and stainless - steel products. Inventory changes in different locations and升贴水 changes [4]. - **Zinc**: Price changes, including主力结算价, LmeS3, and现货 prices. Inventory changes and升贴水 changes [5]. - **Tin**: Price changes, including主力结算价, LmeS3, and现货 prices. Inventory changes and升贴水 changes [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot升贴水**: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index,粗铜加工费, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with rich experience and multiple awards; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [48][49].