1. Index Trends - On May 29th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to close at 3363.45 points, with a trading volume of 453.741 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24% to close at 10127.2 points, with a trading volume of 731.681 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.76% with a trading volume of 232.576 billion yuan, opening at 5980.86, closing at 6089.58, with a daily high of 6091.96 and a low of 5980.86 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.47% with a trading volume of 148.095 billion yuan, opening at 5637.06, closing at 5719.91, with a daily high of 5724.52 and a low of 5637.06 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.29% with a trading volume of 53.28 billion yuan, opening at 2684.49, closing at 2690.89, with a daily high of 2703.99 and a low of 2677.81 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 105.12 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Computer, Electronics, and Medicine & Biology significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 82.67 points from the previous close, with Electronics, Medicine & Biology, and Computer sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 7.83 points from the previous close, with Electronics, Non - Banking Finance, and Medicine & Biology sectors pulling the index up, while Food & Beverage, Utilities, and Banking sectors pulling it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 66.97, IM01 of - 157.35, IM02 of - 309.74, and IM03 of - 475.64 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 53.15, IC01 of - 123.11, IC02 of - 229.29, and IC03 of - 349.52 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 22.88, IF01 of - 60.63, IF02 of - 90.54, and IF03 of - 127.91 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 15.56, IH01 of - 46.26, IH02 of - 51.34, and IH03 of - 52.09 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, etc.) are provided [22]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, etc.) are provided [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, etc.) are provided [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, etc.) are provided [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated narrowly, rising slightly by 0.01% to $9,567 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell by 0.18% to 77,850 yuan per ton. The US macro situation is mixed, with the April existing - home sales index falling year - on - year. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. High copper prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. With a relatively stable macro situation and fundamental support, it's difficult for copper prices to drop significantly. The current weak market is due to the domestic off - season, and the de - stocking trend and high BACK structure are not suitable for unilateral short - selling. Copper may maintain the current oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum both fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost center of aluminum has declined, and alumina enterprises are showing signs of resuming production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated slightly before the holiday, and the downstream rigid demand for stocking was limited. Aluminum prices continued to adjust narrowly above 20,000 yuan and were not significantly affected by alumina [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose by 1.99%, and SHFE nickel rose by 1.25%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The cost support of the stainless - steel industry chain is strong, but market transactions are weak, and inventory digestion is mainly for 200 - series and 300 - series. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has increased, but the demand for nickel sulfate is hard to increase. After a rapid decline, nickel prices may recover, but in the short term, they will still oscillate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose slightly, SHFE copper fell. The US April existing - home sales index was far lower than expected. LME inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. High prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. The macro situation is improving, and the fundamentals support copper prices. It's difficult for prices to drop significantly, and the current weak market is due to the off - season. Copper may oscillate, and attention should be paid to capital games [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost of aluminum decreased, and alumina enterprises may resume production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated before the holiday, and downstream stocking was limited. Aluminum prices adjusted narrowly above 20,000 yuan [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and SHFE nickel rose. LME and domestic SHFE inventories decreased. The stainless - steel industry chain has strong cost support but weak transactions. In the new energy sector, supply increased while demand was weak. After a decline, nickel prices may recover but will oscillate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and the import loss increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the premium decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium expanded. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the near - far month spread increased. The spot price remained unchanged, and the domestic and imported spot premiums decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the LME price decreased. The near - far month spread increased, and the spot price decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [50][51][52].

Group 1 - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the prices of different agricultural products show different trends, with corn expected to fluctuate upward, soybean meal to fluctuate and rise, oils and fats to fluctuate weakly, eggs to fluctuate weakly, and live pigs to fluctuate [1] Group 3 - The prices of different agricultural products show different trends. Corn prices are expected to fluctuate upward, with short - term fluctuations ending and prices resuming upward. In the northeast region, mainstream corn prices rose slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises also raised their purchase prices. In North China, corn prices were generally stable with a slight weakness [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate and rise. CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, but favorable weather in the central United States limited price increases. Domestic soybean meal showed a narrow - range fluctuation, with funds mainly flowing out. The supply pressure of soybean meal is postponed to mid - June [1] - Oils and fats prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. BMD palm oil rose for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, and high - frequency data previously showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June. Domestic palm oil increased in positions and reached a two - week high [1] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Egg futures prices rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices were stable, with supply increasing until August. The supply - demand fundamentals are bearish, and egg prices are expected to remain weak until there is an unexpectedly large increase in culling. However, egg prices in low - price areas have fallen below the cost line, so the downward space for later egg prices is relatively limited [1] - Live pig prices are expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the live pig futures contract 2509 broke through the integer support of 13,500 yuan, then rebounded due to the positive sentiment of the macro and surrounding commodities. Spot pig prices were stable with a slight strength this week [1] Group 4 - US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that private exporters reported selling 101,096 tons of corn to unknown destinations and 104,000 tons to Mexico, all for the 2024/2025 sales year [3] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that there is undoubtedly an economic emergency in the US, and the government has multiple options on trade issues. The government has a high chance of winning in court rulings and appeals regarding trade issues [3] - Agricultural information agency Sovecon reported that Russia's grain exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.94 billion tons, lower than 5.02 billion tons in 2024/25. Russia's wheat exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.08 billion tons, an increase of 110 million tons compared to the previous year [3] - Malaysian Minister of Plantation and Commodities announced that Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground - transport vehicles from B10 to B20 [3]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.46%，报收 65.03 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.08%，报收 13320 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比减少 10069 手至 55.25 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14459 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日增加 6 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14578 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 6 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是主要影响因数，美国关税政策再 | | | | 起变数，美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普关税政策无效。但 24 小时之内，该裁定被 | | | | 作废，特朗普关税政策重新生效。关税政策反复无常，美元指数与美元价格共振走 | | | | 弱。国内市场方面，郑棉期价窄幅震荡，当前国内新棉正常生长中，新棉预计丰产， | | | | 陈棉库存位于近年来同期低位水平，但短期并无短缺担忧，需求端下游纺织企业开 | | | | 机负荷稳中略降，纺织企业产成品库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 29, 2025, the 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 2.23% to 58,860 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 60,900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also fell by 600 yuan/ton to 59,300 yuan/ton. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized powder) decreased by 400 yuan/ton each. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 30 tons to 33,884 tons [3]. - Lithium ore prices continued to decline. The weekly output increased by 487 tons to 16,580 tons, with mica output increasing by 370 tons to 4,382 tons. Some enterprises plan to resume production in June, and the output is expected to increase further. On the demand side, the inventory of cathode materials has been continuously digested, especially the inventory turnover days of lithium iron phosphate have significantly decreased. The terminal sales are still strong, and the penetration rate remains high. The weekly inventory decreased by 208 tons to 131,571 tons, with downstream, intermediate, and upstream inventories all decreasing [3]. - The fundamentals are still bearish. However, from the capital side, the ratio of positions to inventory is deviated, and the current lithium carbonate price is basically at a relatively low level. The game between long and short positions has intensified price fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Price changes: Futures, spot, and various lithium - related product prices showed a downward trend, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton [3][5]. - Supply and demand: Supply increased, and some enterprises plan to resume production in June. Demand showed a situation where cathode inventory was digested, the cell end slowed down, but terminal sales were strong [3]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with downstream, intermediate, and upstream inventories all showing a downward trend [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - A detailed list of price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from May 28 to May 29, 2025, is provided, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate, precursors, cathode materials, cells, and batteries [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][10][11]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursors and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][24]. - Lithium - battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from September 26, 2024, to May 15, 2025 [34][35][36]. - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 点评 29 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 35280 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.92%，持 仓减仓 1599 手至 78269 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 1220 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7215 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.84%，持仓 减仓 1932 手至 22.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8940 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 50 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7900 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 620 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤电极不断下移，西北及西南硅厂均开启 复产阶段，工业硅仍未见底部。5 月多晶硅商议减产额度未达一致，企业 在高库存压力下自行减负，但库存未见去化。丰水期新增预期少但减量有 限，需求和成本坍塌后晶硅承压加剧。近期出现大量仓单补充，淡化此前 挤仓逻辑。近月供给边际与工业硅出现分歧，工业硅下跌压力高于多晶 硅。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUT ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，主力合约收盘价1784元/吨，微幅下跌0.5%。现货市 场多数持稳，山东、河南地区市场价格分别稳定在1880、1860元/吨。基本面来看 | | | | ，昨日尿素日产量20.73万吨，日环比维持稳定，供应水平依旧偏高。需求端有所 | | | | 跟进，但区域间表现分化。昨日主流地区产销率低端地区17%~24%，高端地区70% | | | 尿素 | ~100%。中下游对尿素采购需求有所跟进但追高意愿不足，后期需求仍有放量预期 | 震荡 | | | ，但价格上方空间依旧有限。整体来看，端午假期前最后一个交易日尿素期货盘面 | | | | 或平稳波动，假期之后农业需求、出口需求均存支撑，不排除期、现价格出现小幅 | | | | 反弹可能，但盘面上方空间依旧明显受限。关注现货成交情况、需求力度、盘面持 | | | | 仓及资金流向。 | | | | 周四纯碱期货价格偏弱波动，主力09合约收盘价1203元/吨，跌幅1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly running [1] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly running [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The terminal demand for steel is gradually weakening, and the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand situation in the upcoming consumption off - season. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be in weak consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and price cuts, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as cost, demand, and production, and are expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures rebounded slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 2978 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The spot price rose steadily, and the trading volume increased. The national rebar production decreased, the inventory decline expanded, and the apparent demand rebounded slightly. However, the terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the short - term is expected to be in weak consolidation [1] - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures rebounded, closing at 707 yuan/ton. The port spot price rose. The global shipment volume decreased slightly, the blast furnace start - up rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills decreased. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 759 yuan/ton, down 2.57%. The spot price in some areas decreased. The supply is loose, the downstream procurement is postponed, and the trading is light. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 1332 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The spot price in the port market decreased. The second round of price cuts was implemented, the demand is weakening, and the inventory of some coking enterprises is overstocked. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5530 yuan/ton, down 1.5%. The market price decreased in some areas. The cost support is weak, the terminal demand is weak, and the production is expected to increase in Inner Mongolia. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5322 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The production in the main producing areas is decreasing, but it has no obvious support for the price. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 7.0, up 7.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also shows different trends, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 142.0, up 6.0 [4] - **Spot prices**: The spot prices of various varieties have different degrees of increase or decrease, like the Shanghai rebar spot price rising 20 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [4] - **Profits and spreads**: The profits and spreads of various varieties have changed, such as the rebar disk profit being 102.5, up 3.2 [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][9][14][17] - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25] - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][31][33][35][36][39] - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [41][42][43][45] - **Rebar profits**: There are profit trend charts of rebar including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of resource products [52] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the evaluated energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is affected by macro - sentiment changes, the uncertainty of Trump's tariff event, and the expectation of OPEC+ production increase. It is expected to oscillate until the OPEC+ meeting results are out. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the oil price amplitude is expected to be large [1]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur products. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonal demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as arbitrage cargo inflows. The LU - FU spread has been narrowing, and the cost - side oil price pressure may affect the absolute prices of FU and LU [2]. - The asphalt market has limited short - term supply pressure but high profit - driven production potential. The approaching rainy season in the South may limit demand, leading to limited upward space and potential inventory accumulation [4]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as crude oil price changes, PTA and EG device restarts and overhauls, and polyester production cuts. It is expected to oscillate in the short term following the cost side [4]. - The rubber market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and the sales of automobiles and tires face pressure, resulting in a short - term oscillating trend [6]. - The methanol market has reduced domestic supply due to device overhauls, and overseas device start - up has decreased, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO device start - up has increased, and the overall price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The polyolefin market has many upstream overhauls and downstream rigid demand purchases, with inventory starting to decline. However, due to high inventory and supply levels, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - The PVC market has a short - term release of fundamental pressure due to overhauls, but with device restarts, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI July contract closed down $0.9 to $60.94/barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent July contract closed down $0.75 to $64.15/barrel, a 1.16% decline; SC2507 closed at 452.5 yuan/barrel, down 9.1 yuan/barrel, a 1.97% decline. The Trump tariff event is still uncertain, and EIA inventory data shows a decrease in commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic oil reserve inventory. The market is worried about the OPEC+ production increase on Saturday, and the price oscillates. During the holiday, the amplitude may be large [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2507 rose 2.42% to 3052 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2507 rose 2.09% to 3558 yuan/ton. Singapore fuel oil inventory has different changes. The low - sulfur spot premium is strengthening, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonal demand. The LU - FU spread has been narrowing, and the cost - side oil price pressure may affect the price [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt BU2507 rose 0.51% to 3514 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. The short - term supply pressure is limited, but the approaching rainy season in the South may limit demand, and the price may weaken [4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 rose 3.04% to 4814 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 1.11% to 4359 yuan/ton, and PX futures main contract 509 rose 3% to 6788 yuan/ton. There are restarts and overhauls of PTA and EG devices, and the polyester production load is expected to be reduced. The price is expected to oscillate following the cost side [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2509 rose 75 yuan/ton to 13880 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber NR rose 335 yuan/ton to 12580 yuan/ton. The tire enterprise start - up loads have different changes, and the rubber market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with a short - term oscillating trend [6]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased due to domestic device overhauls, and overseas device start - up has decreased, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO device start - up has increased, and the overall price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream has many overhauls, and the downstream has rigid demand purchases, with inventory starting to decline. However, due to high inventory and supply levels, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market price is weakly adjusted. The supply is expected to increase as overhaul devices resume and new overhauls are limited. The demand is relatively stable due to the stable real - estate construction. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of multiple energy - chemical products on May 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The US Court of Appeals temporarily stopped the court's decision on Trump's tariffs, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect for the time being. The Trump administration expected the court's ruling to be in its favor [11]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all declined. The commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 28 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels, contrary to the market's expected increase of 1.18 million barrels [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, EG, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][17] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][31][35] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [61][63][65] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [70][73]

Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]