Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared to March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. Internal policy support is the main line for the stock index in 2025. The decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies in the first quarter has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded, but the ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable development of the real economy, and will steadily increase the stock market valuation. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The central bank conducted a 448 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 9.1 billion yuan. The capital interest rate declined slightly. The negative impact of the better - than - expected tariff negotiation on the bond market has basically ended. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market and will fluctuate horizontally. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The overall economic data in April declined compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales were supported by policies, and social credit demand was weak. The joint statement between China and the United States was positive, and multiple policies were introduced. The revenue decline of A - share listed companies narrowed, and the net profit rebounded. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate declined. The negative impact on the bond market from tariff negotiations ended, and the bond market will fluctuate horizontally in the short term [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 27, 2025, compared with May 26, 2025, IH decreased by 15.8 points (-0.59%), IF remained unchanged, IC decreased by 16.6 points (-0.30%), and IM decreased by 10.0 points (-0.17%) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 14.1 points (-0.52%), the CSI 300 decreased by 20.7 points (-0.54%), the CSI 500 decreased by 17.3 points (-0.31%), and the CSI 1000 decreased by 20.3 points (-0.34%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS decreased by 0.022 points (-0.02%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (-0.03%), T decreased by 0.12 points (-0.11%), and TL decreased by 0.3 points (-0.25%) [3] Market News - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. Among them, the profit of state - owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the profit of joint - stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; the profit of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and the profit of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Includes the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their corresponding basis trends [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Includes the intermediate price charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and their 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [22][23][26]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点评 26 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 34886 元/吨，日内涨幅 3.92%，持 仓增仓 3806 手至 77294 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 1615 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7610 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.67%，持仓 增仓 9112 手至 18.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9152 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 80 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8050 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 330 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤电极不断下移。新疆大厂增产，西南硅 厂开始进入规模复产前奏，工业硅有延续探底压力。5 月多晶硅商议减产 额度未达一致，企业在高库存压力下自行减负，但库存未见去化。丰水期 新增预期少但减量有限，成本下滑后晶硅价格维持承压态势。多晶硅交割 品短缺预计单边操作风险大。双硅供给边际开始分歧，价差有望延续扩 大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUT ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-05-26 2025-05-23 | | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60100 | 60960 | -860 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60260 | 60980 | -720 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 688 | 690 | -2 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 700 | 705 | -5 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1260 | 1280 | -20 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 5975 | 6025 | -50 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:7%-8%） | 元/吨 | 6975 | 7050 | ...

黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡下跌，盘中一度跌破 3000 元/吨关口，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3004 | 弱势整理 | | | 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌 42 元/吨，跌幅为 1.38%，持仓增加 19.1 万手。现货价格下跌，成交维 | | | | 持低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2920 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 40 元/吨至 | | | | 3090 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.58 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 2.87%至 403.13 万吨，热卷 | | | | 库存下降 3.87%至 179.97 万吨，库存降幅有所收窄。目前螺纹强现实逐步淡化，弱预期逐步兑现，市场情 | | | | 绪整体偏悲观。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 706.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 | 震荡 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | | 昨日 LME 休市；昨晚 SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.23%至 78450 元/吨。宏观方面，美联储明 | | | | | 年票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席表示，美国经济面临的最大风险是新政策的不确定 | | | | | 性，不确定到 9 月份时有足够证据进行降息。欧央行表示欧元可能成为美元的替代， | | | | | 近期全球动荡为欧元推进全球化创造契机。库存方面，SMM 周一统计全国主流地区 铜库存环比上周五微降 0.02 万吨至 13.97 万吨，结束连续两周周一累库重新下降。需 | | | | 铜 | 求方面，高铜价高升水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。虽然特朗 | | | | | 普态度反复摇摆，但美政府关税立场缓和下，宏观方面整体朝着回暖的方向发展。基 | | | | | 本面方面，COMEX 市场继续"吸"铜，LME 库存快速下降，或引起非美国家铜紧 | | | | | 张的情形，从我国 4 月精通、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 7 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 651.5 | 662.5 | -11.0 | I05-I09 | -55.0 | -55.5 | 0.5 | | I09 | 706.5 | 718.0 | -11.5 | I09-I01 | 35.0 | 35.5 | -0.5 | | I01 | 671.5 | 682.5 | -11.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Weakly [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Pigs: Oscillating [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn futures price decreased with reduced positions on Monday, and the spot price in the northern ports was stable over the weekend. The corn price in North China was strong, and the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises stopped falling. The substitution of wheat increased, and it is expected that the corn futures and spot prices will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans were closed on Monday. The domestic protein meal futures price oscillated. The postponement of the 50% tariff on EU imports to July 9th eased market concerns. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly. The soybean crushing volume this week exceeded 2 million tons, and the spot inventory of soybean meal is expected to continue to recover. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and adopt a long - only strategy [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil almost closed flat on Monday. The international soybean - palm oil price spread widened, increasing the competitive advantage of palm oil. The export of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased, and the production increase slowed down, which helped to ease the inventory pressure. The domestic inventory of three major vegetable oils decreased slightly, but was still higher than last year. The soybean crushing volume is expected to exceed 2 million tons this week, and the soybean oil inventory may continue to rise. Adopt a short - only strategy [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures price oscillated on Monday, with the near - month contract being weak and the far - month contract being relatively strong. The spot price increased slightly. Due to the impact of weather on terminal demand and sufficient supply, the egg price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed raw material prices and farmers' willingness to cull hens on egg prices [1]. - Pigs: The September pig futures contract rose on Monday, driven by the near - month contract. The spot price of pigs increased over the weekend, boosting the futures price. The current demand in the pig market is stable, and the price rebounded slightly today. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within a range tomorrow. The pig price is expected to be weak in June due to increased supply [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Information - The production of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25, 2025 increased by 0.73% [2][3]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% (AmSpec) and 34.71% (SGS) [2][3]. - Thailand issued a heavy - rain risk warning from 06:00 on May 26 to 06:00 on May 27 [3]. - It is estimated that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June and 9.5 million tons in July. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills has quickly recovered to over 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory will significantly increase [3]. - CGC will organize a two - way bidding trading of 11,905 tons of imported crude soybeans on May 28 [3]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [4][5][7][8][12][13][14][18][20][26] Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [30]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards and published many articles [30]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and been interviewed by the media [30].

Group 1: Research Views - Cotton's short - term outlook is for low - level oscillation. On Monday, ICE US cotton rose 0.66% to 66.06 cents/pound, CF509 fell 0.3% to 13385 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 2270 lots to 575,400 lots. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price dropped to 14504 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B dropped to 14606 yuan/ton. Macro factors and US cotton - growing area weather are key factors. In the domestic market, new cotton is growing normally, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. There is neither strong upward nor downward drive [1]. - Sugar's short - term trend is also expected to be oscillatory. The USDA predicts that the 2025/26 global sugar production will increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. Brazilian and Indian production increases will offset the EU's decline. Spot sugar prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased slightly. The market will focus on Brazil's crushing progress, and with future imported sugar arrivals, market sentiment will be under pressure [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 spread is - 215 with a 10 - point increase, the main contract basis is 1221 with a 23 - point increase. Xinjiang's spot price is 14504 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease, and the national price is 14606 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease [2]. - For sugar, the 7 - 9 spread is 88 with a 10 - point increase, the main contract basis is 325 with a 2 - point decrease. Nanning's spot price is 6155 yuan/ton unchanged, and Liuzhou's is 6160 yuan/ton unchanged [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On May 26, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 11343, a decrease of 16 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 348 [3]. - On May 26, cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14504 yuan/ton, Henan 14662 yuan/ton, Shandong 14609 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14823 yuan/ton [3]. - On May 26, the yarn comprehensive load was 55.3 (unchanged), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.5 (up 0.3), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.8 (down 0.1), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.8 (up 0.2) [3]. - On May 26, the spot sugar prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged at 6155 yuan/ton and 6160 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - On May 26, the sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 32244 (unchanged), and the valid forecast was 0 [4]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [18]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, responsible for research on urea, soda - ash glass, etc., and has won many industry awards [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, mainly engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, etc., and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea market shows a weak trend with supply increasing and demand being scattered. The market will continue to face pressure without new positive drivers, but there may be opportunities for a rebound. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] - The soda ash market fluctuates widely, with supply slightly increasing and demand being stable but with limited support. The market will continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and there may be some support in the medium - term, while facing pressure in the long - term. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] - The glass market is firm but with a weakening night - session trend. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the market will continue to consolidate at the bottom in the short - term. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] Market Information Summary Urea - On May 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 7104, a decrease of 444 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5] - On May 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 206,800 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous working day and 355,000 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 89.92%, a 10.8 - percentage - point increase from 79.12% in the same period last year [5] - On May 26, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions decreased, with Shandong at 1860 yuan/ton (-20), Henan at 1850 yuan/ton (-30), etc. [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On May 26, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 147 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 4781; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 2358 from the previous trading day [7] - On May 26, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions showed some adjustments, with prices in the southwest and northwest regions decreasing [7] - On May 26, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.59%. The total capacity was adjusted from 39.8 million tons to 41.1 million tons [7] - On May 26, the average price of the float glass market was 1234 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton, and the daily output of the industry was 157,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous day [7] Chart Analysis Summary - The content provides multiple charts including those related to urea and soda ash, such as price trends, basis, contract spreads, and spot price trends, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [10][11][12] Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won multiple awards [25] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass, and has won many honors [25] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [25]