1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，下跌 0.19%至 9596 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.14%至 78100 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 4 月耐用品订单环比初值下跌 | | | | 6.3%，预期值为-7.8%，前值由 9.20%修正为 7.50%，表明在关税政策不确定性的影响 | | | | 下，企业投资意愿正在减弱。国内方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，前 4 月规模以上 | | | | 面，LME 库存下降 2575 吨至 162150 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 3023 吨至 162354 吨； | | | | 工业企业利润增长 1.4%，较前 3 月加快 0.6 个百分点，延续恢复向好态势。库存方 | | | 铜 | SHFE 铜仓单增加 2128 吨至 34961 吨；BC 铜仓当下降 201 吨至 880 吨。需求方面， | | | | 高铜价高升水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract rose 0.86% to 60,920 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 62,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 200 yuan/ton to 64,220 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized) dropped 200 yuan/ton to 69,365 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 825 tons to 34,154 tons [3]. - Lithium ore prices continued to decline, with FM lithium spodumene quoted at around 645 US dollars/ton. The weekly output decreased compared to the previous period. A lithium salt plant's technical renovation was expected to affect the output by 1,500 tons per month, but some enterprises planned to resume production in June after previous overhauls. On the demand side, the inventory of cathode materials was continuously digested, especially the inventory turnover days of lithium iron phosphate had significantly decreased. The cell end slowed down, but the terminal sales were still strong, and the penetration rate remained high. The weekly inventory decreased compared to the previous period, with an increase in the upstream and a decrease in other links and downstream inventory [3]. - The downstream raw material inventory still needs to be digested, and the procurement activity is not strong. The upstream mines have not substantially reduced production, and lithium carbonate can be considered to exist in the form of lithium ore. The fundamental situation is still bearish. However, from the capital side, on one hand, the ratio of positions to inventory is quite deviated, and on the other hand, the current lithium carbonate price is basically in the lower - end range, resulting in intensified price fluctuations due to the game between long and short positions [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 60,920 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 60,900 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 686 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,950 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,400 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles, domestic) was 64,220 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized) was 69,365 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles, domestic) was 58,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 8.4 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 53,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [5]. - **Price Differences**: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan to 2,220 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 236 yuan to - 3,844.16 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursors and lithium iron phosphate generally decreased slightly, while some remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of most cells and batteries remained stable, with only a slight decrease in the price of 523 square ternary cells [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithiophilite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][10]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Differences**: Charts present the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from September 2024 to May 2025 [36][37][38]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].

Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [1] - Sugar: Slightly Bearish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton prices decreased slightly due to weak overall drivers and macro - level disturbances. The U.S. dollar index rebounded, and future attention should be paid to the weather in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices weakened. New cotton is growing normally and is expected to have a good harvest, with low - level but non - short - term - shortage concerns for old cotton inventory. Demand is relatively stable, and textile enterprise inventories increased slightly. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the current range, and future attention should be paid to international situations, domestic policies, and weather [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of May decreased by 23.15% year - on - year. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly, and the raw sugar price tested the support at 17 cents/pound. Domestic spot trading was average, with concerns about future imports. However, due to good domestic sales progress, the basis was strong, supporting the futures price. The sugar price is expected to slowly decline, and future sales progress and imports should be monitored [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.8% to 65.58 cents/pound, and CF509 fell 0.37% to 13,330 yuan/ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 10,377 hands to 565,100 hands. Xinjiang's cotton arrival price was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,595 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 1572,300 tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of May, a 23.15% decrease year - on - year. The average daily export was 98,200 tons. Guangxi's sugar - making group quoted 6100 - 6190 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's group quoted 5890 - 5930 yuan/ton, also with some prices down 10 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 spread was - 215, unchanged; the main - contract basis was 1265, up 44. Xinjiang's spot price was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton, and the national price was 14,595 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: The 7 - 9 spread was 89, up 1; the main - contract basis was 319, down 6. Nanning's spot price was 6155 yuan/ton, unchanged, and Liuzhou's was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On May 27, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 11,260, down 83, with 348 valid forecasts. Cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,485 yuan/ton, Henan 14,651 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,600 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,817 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 55.3, unchanged; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.6, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.6, down 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.9, up 0.1 [3]. - Sugar: On May 27, Nanning's sugar spot price was 6155 yuan/ton, unchanged, and Liuzhou's was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 31,881, down 363, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, spreads, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel products are expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The demand for rebar has gradually weakened, supply remains high, and cost support has diminished [1]. - Iron ore is predicted to show a weak and volatile trend. Global shipments have slightly decreased, iron - water production has declined, and inventories are being depleted [1]. - Coking coal is likely to operate with a weak and volatile pattern. Upstream coal mine inventories are high, demand from the steel industry is weak, and steel mills have initiated a second round of price cuts for coke [1]. - Coke is expected to have a weak and volatile performance. Raw - material prices have dropped, steel prices are weak, and steel mills have started a second - round price cut for coke [1]. - Manganese silicon is forecasted to run weakly. Terminal demand is weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and 6 - month steel tenders are ongoing with decreasing prices [1]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to continue its weak operation. Terminal demand is relatively weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel - tender prices are falling [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices fell, and demand weakened while supply remained high. Cost support from coke price cuts is expected to weaken, leading to a weak consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures contract i2509 closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. Global shipments decreased slightly, with different trends in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions. Iron - water production dropped, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures contract 2509 closed at 799.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices in some areas fell. Upstream coal mine inventories are high, and demand from the steel industry is weak due to price cuts for coke, resulting in a weak and volatile outlook [1]. - **Coke**: The futures contract 2509 closed at 1364 yuan/ton, down 0.8%. Spot prices at ports fell. Raw - material prices dropped, and steel mills initiated a second - round price cut for coke, leading to a weak and volatile trend [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price closed at 5616 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and 6 - month steel tenders are ongoing with falling prices, so it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5452 yuan/ton, down 1.73%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and steel - tender prices are falling, leading to a weak operation [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various commodities showed different spread changes, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also had corresponding changes, like the 10 - contract basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various commodities in different regions changed, for example, rebar prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [2]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit changed, as well as spreads like the coil - rebar spread and coke - iron ore ratio [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over different time periods [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities [24][28][30][32][33][35]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [38][40][42]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over different time periods [44][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [51]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading and a CFA Level 2 pass [52].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 8 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 645.5 | 651.5 | -6.0 | I05-I09 | -53.0 | -55.0 | 2.0 | | I09 | 698.5 | 706.5 | -8.0 | I09-I01 | 34.5 | 35.0 | -0.5 | | I01 | 664.0 | 671.5 | -7.5 | I01-I05 | 18.5 | 20.0 | -1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 220 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 点评 27 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 35290 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.16%，持 仓增仓 2449 手至 80800 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 1210 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7440 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.63%，持仓 增仓 20995 手至 22.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9125 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 27 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7950 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 420 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤电极不断下移，西北及西南硅厂均开启 复产阶段，工业硅仍未见底部。5 月多晶硅商议减产额度未达一致，企业 在高库存压力下自行减负，但库存未见去化。丰水期新增预期少但减量有 限，需求和成本坍塌后晶硅承压加剧。近期出现大量仓单补充，淡化此前 挤仓逻辑，晶硅或转向流畅下行节奏。近月供给边际与工业硅出现分歧， 仍可考虑多 PS 空 SI 价差策略。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating upwards [1] - Edible Oils: Oscillating downwards [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, the main 2507 contract of corn reduced positions and adjusted. The futures price fluctuated during the session and rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a small positive line. Northeast corn prices were basically stable, while North China prices were strong last weekend and slowed down on Tuesday. The arrival volume was small, and there was still an intention to ship before the wheat harvest. Sales areas were stable, and ports were temporarily stable. Technically, the July contract was suppressed by the long - term moving average. Under the pressure of wheat substitution and new wheat listing, it is expected that the corn futures and spot quotes will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose. An agricultural consulting agency raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production by 800,000 tons to 172 million tons. Brazil's May soybean exports were 14.03 million tons. The post - market crop report showed that the U.S. soybean planting rate was 76%. Domestically, rapeseed meal increased positions and rose, and soybean meal followed. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal pick - up volume increased, the demand for the two meals was good, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal was less than expected, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal was postponed to mid - June, and the granular meal inventory may gradually decline. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. - **Edible Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly closed higher. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.73% month - on - month. The slowdown in production growth and the improvement in export growth helped to digest inventory pressure. China and Malaysia signed an agreement, and the EU delegation will visit Malaysia in September and October. Crude oil prices were almost flat. Domestically, rapeseed oil increased positions and rose, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated and adjusted. The import profit of palm oil was inverted, and the expected purchase volume decreased. The market is concerned about rapeseed purchases after June and soybean purchases for September shipments and later. The state - reserve rapeseed oil has two - way sales. Edible oils oscillate, with a bearish mindset before the festival [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures fell. The main 2507 contract continued to decline, and the 2509 contract broke through the oscillation range downward. The spot price increased slightly. Fundamentally, the new supply will continue to increase before August. The long - term plum rain in the Yangtze River Delta is expected to have a greater negative impact on egg prices than in previous years. Before the over - expected increase in culling, a weak expectation for egg prices is maintained [1][2]. - **Live Pigs**: On Tuesday, the September contract of live pigs oscillated and adjusted. At the beginning of the week, the futures price rose driven by the near - month contract. The spot price rose on the weekend, which boosted the futures price. The current demand is stable, but the previous low price triggered resistance to price drops, and the supply of leading enterprises decreased slightly, with a small price rebound. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within the range in the near future. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 13,500 yuan integer mark. The spot price in May was stronger than expected, and it is generally expected that the price will decline under the pressure of increased supply in June [2]. Group 3: Market Information - CGC will organize a two - way bidding session for rapeseed oil on May 30, with 18,263 tons for two - way trading [3] - Indian farmers and industry officials said that India's soybean planting area may decrease this year as corn and sugarcane may replace soybeans in some areas [3] - According to market rumors, the state - reserve soybean auction will not be held before June 15, and it is rumored that the local state - reserve in Heilongjiang will auction about 2 million tons next month [3] - As of May 23, the commercial inventory of the three major edible oils was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [3] - From May 20 - 27, the total trading volume of soybean meal showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the total trading volume on May 27 being 86,900 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous trading day [4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Include the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][8][9][13] - **Contract Basis**: Include the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][21][27] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Products Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, leader of the top ten research teams of DCE, with multiple awards and media experiences [31] - Hou Xueling, Soybean Analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience, and her team has won multiple awards [31] - Kong Hailan, Researcher on eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with her team winning multiple awards and media interviews [31]

1. Index Trends - On May 27th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by -0.18% to close at 3340.69 points with a trading volume of 394.409 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by -0.61% to close at 10029.11 points with a trading volume of 604.517 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by -0.34% with a trading volume of 193.606 billion yuan, opening at 6019.54, closing at 6008.46, reaching a high of 6023.14 and a low of 5971.35 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by -0.31% with a trading volume of 125.276 billion yuan, opening at 5666.3, closing at 5652.15, reaching a high of 5667.87 and a low of 5629.13 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index went down by -0.52% with a trading volume of 49.856 billion yuan, opening at 2699.69, closing at 2685.28, reaching a high of 2709.29 and a low of 2684.71 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index decreased by -0.54% with a trading volume of 178.467 billion yuan, opening at 3857.63, closing at 3839.4, reaching a high of 3865.43 and a low of 3834.85 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 20.33 points from the previous close. Sectors such as Medicine and Biology, and Basic Chemicals had a significant positive impact, while sectors like Computer, Machinery, and Electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 17.31 points from the previous close. The Medicine and Biology sector had a positive impact, while Machinery, Non - ferrous Metals, and Electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 300 dropped 20.71 points from the previous close. The Banking sector had a positive impact, while Automobile, Non - ferrous Metals, and Electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 14.14 points from the previous close. The Banking sector had a positive impact, while Food and Beverage, Electronics, and Non - ferrous Metals had a negative impact [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the daily average basis was -98.04 for IM00, -190.8 for IM01, -349.56 for IM02, and -527.69 for IM03 [12]. - For IC contracts, the daily average basis was -76.59 for IC00, -151.74 for IC01, -269.32 for IC02, and -399.41 for IC03 [12]. - For IF contracts, the daily average basis was -29.87 for IF00, -68.48 for IF01, -100.62 for IF02, and -139.97 for IF03 [12]. - For IH contracts, the daily average basis was -17.04 for IH00, -48.29 for IH01, -54.82 for IH02, and -57.71 for IH03 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, including values for IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. [21]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, including values for IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc. [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, including values for IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, including values for IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, etc. [25].