1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 10, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,665 yuan/ton with an intraday increase of 1.58%. The position decreased by 7,975 lots to 278,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,359 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,600 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 70 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 52,885 yuan/ton with an intraday decrease of 4.4%. The position decreased by 5,908 lots to 137,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 885 yuan/ton [2]. - In the short - term, the downward sentiment of industrial silicon has recovered due to the repair of demand expectations and the impact of polysilicon policy sentiment. The exchange adjusted the handling fees and trading limits for polysilicon, causing some long - positions to exit. The short - term market is still waiting for the results of energy - saving inspections, and policy expectations provide strong bottom support. However, with continuous increase in production scheduling and poor downstream acceptance, the high inventory pressure remains unsolved, and it is difficult for polysilicon to have a significant rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend on September 10, while polysilicon showed a fluctuating and weakening trend. The short - term market sentiment of industrial silicon has recovered, and polysilicon has difficulty in a large - scale rebound due to inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,530 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions remained stable, with no significant changes. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 70 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 90 to 50,045, and the total social inventory decreased by 9,900 tons to 435,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 635 yuan/ton to 52,885 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, with the current lowest deliverable price at 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed by 635 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 500 to 7,370, and the total social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 234,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 10,900 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][6][7][8][10][11]. 3.3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][15][16][17][18]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Charts display the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][21][23]. 3.3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts present the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost and profit of DMC, and cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][33]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is in a state of shock. The oil price is affected by geopolitical risks and inventory data, and it is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC also have different influencing factors, and their prices are expected to show different trends of shock [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center moved up. The WTI October contract closed up $1.04 to $63.67 per barrel, a 1.66% increase. The Brent November contract closed up $1.10 to $67.49 per barrel, also a 1.66% increase. SC2510 closed at 490.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.82% increase. The market is pricing in the increase in geopolitical risks, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.44% at 2,827 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan per ton. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The fundamentals of FU and LU have no obvious driving force, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the cost - side crude oil [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.55% at 3,463 yuan per ton. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will ease in September, and the asphalt price may have further upward space [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. EG2601 closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. It is expected that the PX price will fluctuate with the cost, the TA fundamentals have improvement expectations, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main沪胶 contract RU2601 rose 40 yuan per ton to 15,980 yuan per ton. It is expected that the rubber price will be mainly in a strong - side shock, and close attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the peak production season [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,295 yuan per ton. It is expected that the methanol price will enter a stage - bottom [4][5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing was 6,750 - 6,960 yuan per ton. The polyolefins are gradually transitioning to a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a weakly - fluctuating pattern [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the PVC market in East China was in a shock - finishing state. It is expected that the PVC price will fluctuate weakly [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump urged the EU to impose up to 100% "secondary tariffs" on China and encouraged similar measures against India. The EU official delegation will visit Washington this week to discuss joint actions to pressure Russia [11]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that as of the week ending September 5, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, and U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][43][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, etc. [67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [72][73][74].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Range-bound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares closed higher with the Wind All A index up 0.22% and a trading volume of 2 trillion yuan. The short-term correction is normal due to profit-taking, while long-term benefits from the Fed's dovish stance and potential rate cuts. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system are expected to boost the market. The liquidity-driven market will continue with obvious structural features and faster sector rotation [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts down 0.86%, 0.27%, 0.15%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 3040 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion yuan. The short-term bonds are relatively stable, while the long-term bonds are more volatile [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH rose 0.42% to 2,937.8, IF rose 0.14% to 4,432.4, IC fell 0.14% to 6,863.4, and IM fell 0.21% to 7,151.0 [3]. - Stock Indexes: Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.37% to 2,939.6, CSI 300 rose 0.21% to 4,445.4, CSI 500 rose 0.05% to 6,932.1, and CSI 1000 rose 0.06% to 7,230.2 [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.03% to 102.35, TF fell 0.14% to 105.43, T fell 0.26% to 107.49, and TL fell 0.83% to 114.76 [3]. 3.2 Market News - In August, the month-on-month PPI ended eight consecutive months of decline, turning flat from a 0.2% drop in the previous month. The year-on-year PPI fell 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the first narrowing since March this year [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts [6][7][8][9][10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures [12][15][16][17]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and various currency pairs [20][21][22][24][25][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 9, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 2.62% to 72,900 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 74,600 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 72,350 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 75,200 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 650 tons to 38,101 tons [3]. - Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting on the resumption of the Shixiawo lithium mine. The mining permit approval is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to resume production soon, which may reduce the short - term price of lithium carbonate, but the actual resumption time needs further attention [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons, and the expected production in September increased by 1.7% to 86,730 tons. In terms of demand, the expected production of ternary materials in September decreased by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, while the expected production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 6% to 335,250 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 72,900 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 2,440 yuan/ton to 72,820 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 3 dollars/ton to 879 dollars/ton, while the prices of other lithium ores remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 75,200 yuan/ton, and the prices of other related products were mostly stable [5]. - **Price Differences**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, and other price differences had different changes [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials increased slightly, while the prices of manganese - acid lithium decreased by 500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Batteries**: The prices of some lithium battery cells and batteries increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [10][13]. - **Price Differences**: There are charts showing the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][25][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [29][32]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from January to September 2025 [36][38]. - **Production Costs**: There is a chart showing the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated weakly, and SHFE copper had a narrow - range fluctuation. US employment data led to a restart of the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts and increased concerns about a US recession, affecting the non - ferrous market sentiment. Although the peak season is approaching, high copper prices have made downstream buyers hesitant, resulting in weak procurement. LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,739 tons to 279,140 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, and BC copper decreased by 502 tons to 4,418 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina's excess pattern is difficult to reverse, and the import increase adds pressure. Electrolytic aluminum starts a macro - micro resonance mode. With the Fed's possible rate cut in September, the start - up of downstream industries in some areas is restricted by environmental protection, and the inventory inflection point of aluminum ingots is postponed. The end of tax rebates for recycled aluminum restricts supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum in the short term [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.49% to $15,105 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.45% to 120,400 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 456 tons to 218,070 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 173 tons to 22,599 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased. In the new - energy sector, demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but raw - material supply was relatively tight. With the marginal improvement of ferronickel and new - energy sectors, opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 9, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 79,840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day, and the flat - water copper premium was 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 73,500 yuan/ton. LME copper registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,103 tons to 81,851 tons. COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,739 tons to 279,137 tons, and the domestic + bonded - area social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 21.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: On September 9, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 239,325 tons, and the SHFE warrants increased by 25 tons to 53,820 tons, with the weekly inventory increasing by 2,162 tons to 66,834 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On September 9, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 20,740 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 20,730 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The price of Shandong alumina decreased by 30 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton. LME aluminum registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 74 tons to 64,459 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1,518 tons to 124,078 tons. The weekly social inventory of alumina increased by 2.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On September 9, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,000 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel registered + cancelled inventory increased by 456 tons to 218,070 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 173 tons to 22,599 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons. The weekly social inventory of nickel increased by 460 tons to 39,930 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: On September 9, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SMM 0 spot price was 22,190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 51,025 tons. The weekly social inventory increased by 0.14 million tons to 13.99 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On September 9, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 269,790 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The SMM spot price was 270,400 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 207 tons to 7,773 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 2,355 tons [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premium charts from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price differences between near - term and far - term contracts [15][20][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The report presents LME inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical changes in LME inventories of these metals [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts display SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the historical changes in SHFE inventories [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: The report includes social inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report provides charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the historical trends of smelting profits in the non - ferrous metal industry [44][46][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: Steel (narrow - range consolidation), Iron Ore (oscillation), Coking Coal (oscillation), Coke (oscillation), Manganese Silicon (oscillation), and Silicon Ferrosilicon (oscillation) [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a weak oscillation. High production, low demand, and inventory accumulation in the peak season pressured prices. However, as steel prices fell, cost support increased. It is expected to move in a narrow - range in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose. Supply saw a decline in global shipments, and demand had a drop in iron - water production and a decline in the steel mill profitability rate. With multiple factors at play, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price dropped. Some mines in the main production areas resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious. After the first round of coke price cuts, the demand for coking coal was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The futures price declined. Coke production increased due to good profit margins, while steel mills' demand was mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement showed new progress, but production was at a relatively high level, and demand was not strong. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement increased, but production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (0.29%). Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. Production was high, demand was low, and inventory was accumulating. Cost support increased [1] - Iron Ore: The i2601 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (1.6%). Spot prices were strong. Global shipments decreased, and iron - water production and steel mill inventories declined [1] - Coking Coal: The 2601 contract closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (1.75%). Spot prices in some areas changed. Mines resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious [1] - Coke: The 2601 contract closed at 1597.5 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (1.39%). Spot prices fell. Coke production increased, and steel mills' demand was for on - demand procurement [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price was 5838 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory increased [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price was 5620 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various commodities had different spreads and changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 47.0, down 3.0 [3] - Basis: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the 01 contract basis of rebar was 117.0, up 9.0 [3] - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions had various changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3240.0, unchanged [3] - Profits and Spreads: Different profit indicators and inter - commodity spreads changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 47.0, down 19.2 [3] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts of various black commodities [17][18][19][21][22][24] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts displayed the historical spreads of different contracts of various black commodities [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39] - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts showed the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio [41][42][43][45] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts presented the historical profits of rebar main contracts, including futures profits, long - process profits, and short - process profits [46][47][48][49][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn market shows different trends in different regions. In the Northeast, prices are rising, while in North China, prices are falling. Technically, the short - term price is adjusted, and the medium - term is expected to be weak due to high yield and lower costs [1]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell as investors adjusted positions before the supply - demand report, which is expected to show a slight decline in US soybean yield but still high production. Domestic bean meal prices are mainly oscillating, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: BMD palm oil declined due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit. Domestic oil futures prices are narrowly oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures rebounded, and spot prices are stable. The supply will affect egg prices in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Pigs: Pig futures are weakly oscillating, and spot prices are also weak. The anti - dumping measures have limited impact, and the market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary - Canadian Agricultural Production: As of July 31, Canada's wheat production was 35.94 million tons, and the ending inventory was 4.11 million tons; rapeseed production was 19.24 million tons, and the ending inventory was 1.60 million tons [3]. - Domestic Inventory: As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory increased by 1.60% week - on - week, bean meal inventory increased by 9.09% week - on - week, and imported rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 4.01% week - on - week [3]. - Trading Arrangement: On September 11, 2025, a domestic soybean auction will be held, selling 22,500 tons of domestic soybeans [3]. - US Crop Forecast: Analysts expect US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.271 billion bushels, lower than the August estimate [3]. Group 4: Variety Spread - Contract Spread: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [4][5][6] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [12][13][16] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs [27]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/9/8 | 2025/9/9 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 8545 | 8530 | -15 | | | | 近月 | 8690 | 8555 | -135 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8950 | 8950 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8850 | 8850 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 通氧55 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices fluctuated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,683 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.17%. The spot market continued to weaken, and the supply level fluctuated narrowly. The demand side remained cautious, and the average sales-to-production ratio was only 25%. The Indian tender results are still being announced, and if the procurement volume and China's supply exceed expectations, the futures price may be bullish in the short term; otherwise, it will be under pressure [1]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,278 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.62%. The spot market quotation was stable, and the production level declined slightly. The demand side followed up as needed, and the market lacked new themes and drivers. It is expected that the short-term futures price will be bearish [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,192 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.34%. The spot market quotation increased slightly, and the demand side improved. However, the marginal change in supply and demand was limited, and the short-term futures price was bearish [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On September 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 8,843, an increase of 76 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 75 [4]. - On September 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 183,200 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 800 tons from the same period last year. The industry operating rate was 78.31%, a decrease of 4.23 percentage points from 82.54% in the same period last year [4]. - On September 9, the spot prices of small-grain urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1,680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan 1,690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1,690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Shanxi 1,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7,759, a decrease of 440 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 3,157. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,093, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - On September 9, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On September 9, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.76%, compared with 88.71% on the previous working day [7]. - On September 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,163 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 160,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes 12 charts, showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, and the futures price spreads between urea and methanol, and glass and soda ash [9][11][13]

Group 1: Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.27% to 66.39 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.68% to 13,835 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 2,364 lots to 507,700 lots. The cotton market price in Xinjiang was about 15,300 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the national average cotton market price was 15,401 yuan per ton, down 27 yuan. The international market focused on the macro - level, with a nearly 100% probability of a September interest rate cut and over 10% probability of a 50BP cut. The weak - oscillating U.S. dollar index supported U.S. cotton prices. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices declined slightly due to new cotton listings, export pressure on clothing, and market sentiment adjustment. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term with limited downside space [2]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 769,000 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of September, with a daily average of 153,800 tons. In September 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.8795 million tons, with a daily average of 184,700 tons. Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,830 - 5,940 yuan per ton, and Yunnan groups quoted 5,720 - 5,770 yuan per ton, with some prices up 10 yuan. Processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were 5,950 - 6,080 yuan per ton, with some down 20 yuan. Raw sugar rebounded from a two - month low. The domestic spot market has sufficient short - term supply, and the futures prices lack upward drivers. It is expected to remain weak [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45 yuan with no change, the main contract basis was 1,566 yuan, up 23 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,300 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, and the national average was 15,401 yuan per ton, down 27 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 18 yuan, up 2 yuan, the main contract basis was 417 yuan, up 9 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 5,880 yuan per ton with no change, and the Liuzhou price was 5,935 yuan per ton with no change [3]. Group 3: Market Information - Cotton: On September 9, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 5,459, down 112 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0. The cotton market prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,300 yuan/ton, Henan 15,350 yuan/ton, Shandong 15,500 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,400 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, up 0.1, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.8, down 0.1, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.9, up 0.2, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.4 with no change [4]. - Sugar: On September 9, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,880 yuan/ton with no change, and the Liuzhou price was 5,935 yuan/ton with no change. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 11,977, down 125 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6 [4][5]. Group 4: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]. Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [24]