广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月26日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月25日 6月24日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13750 13850 -100 -0.72% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -20 185 -205 -110.81% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -70 -୧୧ -5 -7.69% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 47.20 47.15 0.05 0.11% 泰铢/公斤 57.75 57.50 -0.25 -0.43% 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 13200 0 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0.00% 0 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 单位 合约 6月25日 6月24日 涨跌 涨跌幅 9-1价差 -850 -870 20 2.30% 1-5价差 -20 -5 -25 -25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 26, 2025, the report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM [1][6][12] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 25, the total position of the IF variety increased by 12,395 lots, and the main contract switched to 2509 with an increase of 6,129 lots [6] - **Top Twenty Long Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long positions of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 3,086 lots; Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 390 lots. Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,938 lots [7] - **Top Twenty Short Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short positions of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,309 lots; Huawen Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 244 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 47,896 lots [9] 3.2 IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 25, the total position of the IH variety increased by 5,800 lots, and the main contract 2509 increased by 2,025 lots [12] - **Top Twenty Long Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long positions of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 1,282 lots; Huawen Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 229 lots. Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,192 lots [13] - **Top Twenty Short Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short positions of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 1,366 lots; Galaxy Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 118 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,881 lots [14] 3.3 IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 25, the total position of the IC variety increased by 12,814 lots, and the main contract switched to 2507 with an increase of 4,175 lots [18] - **Top Twenty Long Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long positions of the IC variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 3,141 lots; Yong'an Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 484 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 37,561 lots [19] - **Top Twenty Short Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short positions of the IC variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,871 lots; Ping An Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 26 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,259 lots [20] 3.4 IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 25, the total position of the IM variety increased by 20,157 lots, and the main contract 2509 increased by 13,919 lots [24] - **Top Twenty Long Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long positions of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 3,304 lots; Zheshang Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 437 lots. Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,099 lots [25] - **Top Twenty Short Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short positions of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 5,278 lots; CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 65 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 67,479 lots [27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken in the short - term due to concerns about production recovery and a rapid slowdown in export growth. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to fall further to the 8150 - 8250 yuan range [1]. Soybean Oil - The CBOT soybean oil may rise if the US biodiesel policy is consistent with the proposal; otherwise, it may fall again after a short - term adjustment. In the domestic market, cost support makes traders and oil mills reluctant to lower basis quotes, but the increase in factory soybean oil inventory may lead to a reduction in basis quotes [1]. Corn - In the short - term, corn prices may adjust due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply is tight, imports are low, and breeding consumption is increasing, so the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Without new negative factors, the possibility of a sharp decline in sugar prices is small. This week, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the range of 5650 - 5800 [6]. Meal - The bullish sentiment of US soybeans has been fully traded. With the improvement of weather expectations and the decline in oil prices, the market is weak. Domestic soybean inventory pressure is acceptable, and soybean meal inventory is still low. The short - term trend of soybean meal is not clear, and the decline space is expected to be limited [7]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak, with the downstream开机 rate decreasing and finished - product inventory increasing. However, the basis of old crops is still relatively strong, and there is still support for cotton prices. In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [10]. Pork - The current breeding profit exists, but market capacity expansion is cautious. The short - term futures market may be strong, but there is a risk of decline for the 09 contract near the delivery date if the live inventory continues to be postponed [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient. It is expected that egg prices will rise slightly and then stabilize this week, and may decline slightly later [17]. Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Price Changes**: On June 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8490 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of P2509 was 8230 yuan, up 22 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day; the basis was 260 yuan, down 22 yuan or 7.80% from the previous day [1]. - **Inventory and Market Outlook**: The inventory of palm oil in China is at a certain level. The Malaysian market is affected by production and exports, and the domestic market is expected to decline further [1]. Soybean Oil - **Price Changes**: On June 25, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8240 yuan, down 20 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7626 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.26% from the previous day; the basis was 614 yuan, down 40 yuan or 6.12% from the previous day [1]. - **Policy and Market Impact**: The market is concerned about the US biodiesel policy, which will affect the price of CBOT soybean oil. Domestic cost support affects basis quotes [1]. Corn - **Price and Related Indicators**: The price of corn 2509 in Jinzhou Port decreased by 12 yuan or 0.50% to 2377 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan or 3.70% to 104 yuan/ton; the import profit increased by 3 yuan or 0.54% to 539 yuan [2]. - **Market Situation**: Trade merchants are reluctant to sell due to the reduction of remaining grain. Downstream demand is affected by factors such as enterprise maintenance and feed substitution [2]. Sugar - **Price and Market Indicators**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5577 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.40% from the previous day; the price of sugar 2509 was 5757 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning increased by 30 yuan or 0.50% to 6070 yuan [5]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales have increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has decreased [5]. Meal - **Price Changes**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu decreased by 40 yuan or 1.37% to 2880 yuan; the futures price of M2509 decreased by 44 yuan or 1.45% to 2993 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan or 1.96% to 2500 yuan; the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 74 yuan or 2.78% to 2588 yuan [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply rhythm is relatively certain, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The short - term decline space of soybean meal is expected to be limited [7]. Cotton - **Price and Market Indicators**: The price of cotton 2509 was 13645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.26% from the previous day; the price of cotton 2601 was 13625 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 65 yuan or 0.44% to 14832 yuan [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The downstream开机 rate is decreasing, and the finished - product inventory is increasing, but the basis of old crops is still relatively strong [10]. Pork - **Price and Market Indicators**: The price of the main pork contract increased by 90 yuan or 14.75% to 700 yuan/ton; the price of the 2507 contract was 13615 yuan, up 0.48% from the previous day; the price of the 2509 contract was 14000 yuan, up 0.43% from the previous day [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The current breeding profit exists, but capacity expansion is cautious. The short - term futures market may be strong, with potential risks near the delivery date [13]. Eggs - **Price and Market Indicators**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3658 yuan/500KG, up 16 yuan or 0.44% from the previous day; the price of the 07 contract was 2848 yuan/500KG, up 29 yuan or 1.03% from the previous day. The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.12 yuan or 4.24% to 2.92 yuan/jin [16]. - **Market Outlook**: The egg supply is sufficient. Prices are expected to rise slightly, then stabilize, and may decline slightly later [17].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The market is influenced by various factors such as international situations, monetary policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3]. 2. Summary by Commodity Categories a. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: With short - term international situation changes and improved macro - situation, the stock index is strongly rising. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 and sell the 09 call options above 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's bond - buying restart. Although there are short - term fluctuations, the overall strong pattern may remain. It is advisable to allocate long positions on adjustments and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening curve strategy [2]. b. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to stabilize at $3300 and maintain high - level oscillations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Silver is fluctuating in the range of $35.5 - $36.5, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options on Shanghai silver can be tried [2]. c. Shipping and Industrial Materials - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk is declining, and the price is weakly oscillating. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now, and attention can be paid to the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has seen an improvement in trading, and it is recommended to go long on coking coal on dips or long coking coal and short coke. The fourth round of price cuts for coke by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is approaching the phased bottom [2]. d. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the decline in geopolitical risk premium, the crude oil disk is weakly operating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. PX, PTA, and other products are affected by the decline in oil prices and are treated with short - term caution and a bearish attitude [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products, different strategies are proposed according to factors such as production reduction expectations and processing fee repair expectations. For example, short - fiber can be treated the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF disk can be expanded at a low level [3]. e. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Soybean meal is following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather speculation. For oils, they are following the decline of crude oil, and for example, P2509 is testing the support at 8200 [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different strategies are proposed for various agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. For example, sugar is traded bearishly on rebounds in the range of 5600 - 5850, and cotton is traded bearishly on rebounds with attention to the pressure level around 13700 [3]. f. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For soda ash, maintain a high - level short - selling strategy on rebounds. For glass, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 950 - 1050 [3]. - **New Energy Commodities**: For polycrystalline silicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. For example, the stock index is strong due to the improved macro - situation, while the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and capital interest rates. Precious metals are influenced by geopolitical events and Fed's attitude towards interest rates. Different commodities in the futures market also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and rose throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.30%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, important meetings were held, and a grand celebration for the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was announced. Overseas, Trump criticized the Fed's interest - rate policy, and Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 24, A - share trading volume increased significantly. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2092 billion yuan [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the current basis rate of the main contracts, with relatively stable support below the index and the need for a driving force for upward breakthrough, it is recommended to try a covered combination strategy on the CSI 1000 variety [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [6]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse repurchase operation volume increased, and MLF was incrementally renewed. The market sentiment was relatively stable, and the end - of - quarter capital fluctuations were expected to be controllable [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the bond market is under short - term pressure, the overall pattern may remain strong. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to economic data and capital trends, and consider positive arbitrage and curve - steepening strategies [8][9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and Fed Chairman Powell was cautious about interest - rate cuts. Precious metals tumbled during the session but recovered some losses at the end of the session [10][13]. - **Future Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but in the short term, it lacks a clear driving force and faces risks. Silver is supported by factors such as the recovery of the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, but the upward drive is weakened. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options on gold and try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options on silver [13][14]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of June 24, shipping companies' prices varied. The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of major economies reflected the demand situation [15]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to closely observe the shipping company's quotes in late July [16]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, but the premium decreased, and the overall trading was average [17]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium is controversial, and the Fed's economic outlook is moving towards "stagflation", which restricts the upward and downward space of copper prices [18][21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the production of refined copper increases, and the "rush - to - export" demand continues, but it may overdraw future demand. The inventory situation is complex, with COMEX inventory accumulating and domestic inventory slightly decreasing [19][20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [21]. Alumina - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of alumina in various regions decreased [21][22]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production increased in May, and the inventory situation is complex. The market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [22][23]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is stable, the downstream start - up rate is under pressure, and the inventory decline rate slows down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [24][25]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of the recycled aluminum alloy market are both weak, but the demand side is more prominent. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [26][27]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of zinc ingots increased, but the market trading was dull [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, the demand is weakening, and the low inventory provides support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 [28][30]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of tin increased, but the trading was cold. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [30][31][33]. Nickel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in a range [34][35]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of stainless steel decreased [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range [37][39]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading did not improve significantly [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is relatively high, the demand is stable but difficult to boost in the off - peak season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price is stable, and the basis has weakened. The price is expected to weaken again in the off - peak season, and it is recommended to try short positions or sell out - of - the - money call options [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder has changed slightly, and the futures price has fluctuated. The demand for iron water is high, but there is a risk of weakening in the off - peak season. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in the range of 670 - 720 [47][48]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weakly stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is affected by environmental protection and other factors, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short - term buy on dips and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [49][52]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is close to the bottom. The supply is tightening marginally, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [53][56]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [57][58]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is difficult to stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [60][62].

数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、富宝资讯、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尼端免责声明。 信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但广发明货对这些信息的准确性及完整栏不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点 方法、并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下、报告内容仅供参考。报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的却如何 据此投资、风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士．版权月广发刑货 01 22 33 4 何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 acid 关注微信公众号 | 矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月25日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 711.0 | 713.2 | -2.2 | ...

| 硅铁 (SF509) | 5478 | 5288 | 190 | 3.59% | 81.80% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 214 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5770 | 5556 | 59.70% | 3.85% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 103 | 2977 | 3.46% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3080 | 49.70% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 81 | 热卷(HC2510) | 3180 | 3099 | 2.61% | 50.40% | | | | | | 56 | 759 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 7.94% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 703 | 45.60% | -77 | 1275 | 焦炭 (J2509) ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月25日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 服新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -51.63 | 8.87 | 6.50% | 4.70% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -33.92 | -1.95 | 2.40% | 1.20% | | | IC期现价差 | -39.44 | 8.93 | 27.40% | 30.20% | | | IM期现价差 | -199.67 | 27.36 | 15.00% | 1.80% | | | 次月-当月 | -13.20 | 1.80 | 23.30% | 31.00% | | | 季月-当月 | -19.80 | 6.20 | 36.00% | 40.20% | | | 远月-当月 | -50.40 | 3.20 | 41.30% | 35.70% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" results in no clear and smooth trend for copper prices. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside potential. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The "rush - to - export" demand is an over - draft of future demand, and the actual demand side may face pressure in Q3. The main reference range is 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the current low - inventory pattern and the expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum support the aluminum price to run strongly, but the pressure of the consumption off - season limits its upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for recycled aluminum alloy presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The price of SMM ADC12 runs weakly in a narrow range. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, the center of zinc prices may move down. The medium - to - long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply - side recovery progress is slow. Under the strong reality, short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm. The approach is to short on rallies around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [9]. Nickel - The overseas nickel market has high inventory, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. The inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. In the short term, the disk is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel continue to be weak, with certain support at the ore end, a downward negotiation range for nickel - iron, high stainless - steel production, and overall weak demand and slow inventory reduction. In the short term, there is still pressure under the supply - demand contradiction. The disk is expected to run weakly, with the main operation range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk is expected to run weakly in a range. The approach is still to short on rallies, but attention should be paid to the weakening of the short - selling return ratio and the susceptibility to news interference in the short term. The main reference range is 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 78,415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. Other copper prices and premiums also showed corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of electrolytic copper was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The import volume increased by 1.23% to 253,100 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.39% week - on - week to 712,100 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased to 75.82%, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 29.03% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%. The monthly spread of some contracts also decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of alumina was 7.2721 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rate of some aluminum processing industries decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 261,000 tons. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.91%. Some monthly spreads decreased [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. The import volume increased by 2.40% to 28,200 tons. The operating rate of some zinc - consuming industries showed different trends [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 263,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73%. Some monthly spreads increased [9]. Fundamental Data - In May, the import of tin ore increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons. The production of SMM refined tin decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.42%. The cost of some nickel production methods decreased [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - The production of refined nickel in China decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.11% to 203,928 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.40%. Some monthly spreads changed [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.36% to 1.7912 million tons. The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 12.00% to 125,100 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. Some monthly spreads decreased [18]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The demand increased by 4.83% to 93,960 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [18].