1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel, weekly data shows that production declines slightly following apparent demand, with overall apparent demand showing a small decrease. Hot-rolled coil apparent demand remains at a year-on-year high, while rebar apparent demand decreases year-on-year. Recently, steel mills' purchases of iron ore have led to a continuous decline in iron ore port inventories, and the resilient demand during the steel off-season supports the rise of iron ore. With the expectation of supply-side contraction under the "anti-involution" policy, the sentiment for going long on commodities is positive. The fundamentals of ferrous metals, including no inventory accumulation during the steel off-season and continuous de-stocking of raw materials, support the rebound of ferrous metals. From the perspective of the main contract positions, short positions in coking coal have left the market again in the past two days, long positions in steel have increased and prices have risen, and there are signs of long positions in iron ore reducing. The resistance levels for rebar and hot-rolled coil around 3,100 and 3,270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels to watch are 3,250 and 34,000 yuan [1]. - For iron ore, the 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend yesterday. Fundamentally, last week's global iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil. Among them, shipments from Australia decreased slightly, while those from Brazil increased significantly. The arrivals at 47 ports increased last week. Based on the shipment data, the average subsequent arrivals are expected to decline. On the demand side, the impact of steel mill maintenance this week has decreased, the Tangshan production restrictions have ended, and the molten iron output has rebounded significantly. Steel mills have a good profit level and a strong demand for raw material replenishment. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short-term resilience of molten iron is maintained. Although the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening during the off-season, the current downstream orders provide some support. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in molten iron. In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly this week, the port clearance volume increased slightly month-on-month, and the steel mills' equity ore inventories decreased significantly. Looking ahead, in July, the molten iron output is expected to continue the downward trend, with an average of around 2.38 million tons. Steel mill profits will continue to improve. In addition, although the steel mill production restriction policy in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 has reduced the demand for iron ore, production will resume after the policy ends. The "anti-involution" meeting has brought new supply-side policy expectations, and the continued high apparent demand for the five major steel products during the off-season indicates that the terminal demand still has support. In the short term, iron ore will operate in a volatile and upward trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For coke, the futures showed a volatile upward trend yesterday, and the first round of spot price increases has been implemented. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations began to improve. Mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases, which were accepted by mainstream steel mills on the 17th, with an increase of 50/55 yuan per ton. It is expected that there will be another price increase next week. On the supply side, as the inspection team leaves, some rectified coal mines have started to resume production, and coking production restrictions have been lifted simultaneously. However, due to the losses of some enterprises, it is difficult to increase production. On the demand side, the environmental production restrictions in Tangshan ended this week, blast furnaces resumed production, and molten iron output increased significantly. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventories continued to decline, port inventories decreased slightly, and steel mill inventories increased as they actively replenished. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to the low prices, the active replenishment demand of downstream steel mills is beneficial for future price increases of coke. In terms of strategy, the spot market is in the stage of bottoming out and rebounding. The futures premium over the spot provides room for hedging. The "anti-involution" document has brought supply-side policy expectations. For futures and spot trading, hedging operations can be carried out. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coke [7]. - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile upward trend yesterday, and the spot prices were stable with some increases. Recently, domestic coking coal auctions have recovered, most coal mines have seen improved transactions, and the number of rising coal varieties has increased significantly. The spot market generally shows a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. On the supply side, although coal mines have started to resume production after the inspection team left, and the regional supply is expected to increase, due to good sales, coal mines are mainly holding prices firm. The overall coal mine production recovery is slow, and coal mines are still in short supply. In terms of imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal has rebounded slightly, port transactions have improved, inventory pressure has decreased, and the price of seaborne coal has increased, with the import profit still in an inverted state. Recently, steel mills have carried out replenishment purchases. On the demand side, coking plant operations have declined slightly, and the downstream blast furnace molten iron output has decreased again. However, the downstream replenishment efforts have increased. After the Tangshan production restrictions ended, downstream demand will recover. In July, the molten iron output may remain at around 2.38 million tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventories at high levels have continued to decline, port inventories at high levels have decreased, port inventories have increased, and downstream inventories at low levels have increased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the spot fundamentals have improved. After the basis repair, spot merchants have hedging needs. The spot price rebound and downstream replenishment still have some sustainability. For futures and spot trading, hedging operations can be carried out. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,220, 3,180, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +20, 0, and +30 yuan compared to the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are at 3,196, 3,133, and 3,179 yuan respectively, with increases of 34, 27, and 29 yuan [1]. - Hot-rolled coil: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,320, 3,210, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +30, +10, and +30 yuan compared to the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are at 3,309, 3,292, and 3,308 yuan respectively, with increases of 37, 30, and 37 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2,960 yuan, up 10 yuan; slab price is 3,730 yuan, unchanged. - Jiangsu electric furnace rebar cost is 3,334 yuan, unchanged; East China hot-rolled coil profit is 181 yuan, down 31 yuan. - Jiangsu converter rebar cost is 3,083 yuan, up 19 yuan; North China hot-rolled coil profit is 91 yuan, down 41 yuan. - East China rebar profit is 91 yuan, down 41 yuan; South China hot-rolled coil profit is 191 yuan, down 41 yuan. - North China rebar profit is 71 yuan, down 41 yuan; the price difference between Southeast Asia and China is 86 yuan, unchanged. - South China rebar profit is 211 yuan, down 51 yuan [1]. Production - The average daily molten iron output is 242.6 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous value. - The output of the five major steel products is 868.2 tons, down 4.5 tons or -0.5% compared to the previous value. - Rebar output is 209.1 tons, down 7.6 tons or -3.5% compared to the previous value, including 26.4 tons from electric furnaces, down 0.5 tons or -2.0%, and 182.7 tons from converters, down 7.1 tons or -3.7%. - Hot-rolled coil output is 321.1 tons, down 2.0 tons or -0.6% compared to the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products is 1,337.7 tons, down 1.9 tons or -0.1% compared to the previous value. - Rebar inventory is 543.3 tons, up 2.9 tons or 0.5% compared to the previous value. - Hot-rolled coil inventory is 342.9 tons, down 2.6 tons or -0.8% compared to the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume is 8.8 tons, up 0.7 tons or 8.6% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 870.1 tons, down 3.0 tons or -0.3% compared to the previous value. - Rebar apparent demand is 206.2 tons, down 15.3 tons or -6.9% compared to the previous value. - Hot-rolled coil apparent demand is 323.8 tons, up 1.3 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: For Carajás fines, it is 785.7 yuan/ton, up 3.3 yuan or 0.4%; for PB fines, it is 810.7 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan or 1.4%; for Brazilian blend fines, it is 820.1 yuan/ton, up 10.8 yuan or 1.3%; for Jinbuba fines, it is 821.9 yuan/ton, up 11.9 yuan or 1.5%. - 09 contract basis: For Carajás fines, it is 0.2 yuan/ton, down 9.2 yuan or -97.4%; for PB fines, it is 25.2 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan or -5.7%; for Brazilian blend fines, it is 34.6 yuan/ton, down 1.7 yuan or -4.8%; for Jinbuba fines, it is 36.4 yuan/ton, down 0.6 yuan or -1.7%. - 5 - 9 spread is -54.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan or -5.8%; 9 - 1 spread is 33.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 4.8%; 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 7.5%. - Spot prices: At Rizhao Port, Carajás fines are 867.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.3%; PB fines are 765.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan or 1.3%; Brazilian blend fines are 799.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan or 1.3%; Jinbuba fines are 721.0 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan or 1.5%. - Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 98.0 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars or 0.5%; Platts 62% Fe is 99.1 dollars/ton, up 0.9 dollars or 1.0% [3]. Supply - 45 - port arrivals (weekly) are 2,662.1 tons, up 178.2 tons or 7.2% compared to the previous value. - Global shipments (weekly) are 2,987.1 tons, down 7.8 tons or -0.3% compared to the previous value. - National monthly import volume is 9,813.1 tons, down 500.3 tons or -4.9% compared to the previous value [3]. Demand - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 242.4 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous value. - The average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 319.5 tons, up 0.2 tons or 0.1% compared to the previous value. - National monthly pig iron output is 7,190.5 tons, down 220.9 tons or -3.0% compared to the previous value. - National monthly crude steel output is 8,318.4 tons, down 336.1 tons or -3.9% compared to the previous value [3]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared to Monday) is 13,723.11 tons, down 42.8 tons or -0.3% compared to the previous value. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8,979.6 tons, up 61.1 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous value. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1,145 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 4.7% compared to the previous value. - Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The 09 contract is 1,519 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 1.6% compared to the previous value; the 01 contract is 1,559 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 1.3% compared to the previous value. - The 09 basis is - 113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 01 basis is - 153 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. - J09 - J01 is - 40 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. - The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) is - 43 yuan, up 20 yuan [7]. Production - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants is 64.2 tons, up 0.1 tons or 0.2% compared to the previous value. - The average daily output of 247 steel mills is 47.1 tons, down 0.1 tons or - 0.2% compared to the previous value [7]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 242.4 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous value [7]. Inventory - Total coke inventory is 925.7 tons, down 5.3 tons or - 0.64% compared to the previous value. - All - sample coking plant coke inventory is 87.6 tons, down 5.5 tons or - 5.94% compared to the previous value. - 247 steel mill coke inventory is 639.0 tons, up 1.2 tons or 0.2% compared to the previous value. - The steel mill available days are 11.5 days, down 0.2 days or - 1.5% compared to the previous value. - Port inventory is 199.1 tons, down 1.0 tons or - 0.5% compared to the previous value [7]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is - 4.8 tons, up 0.5 tons or 11.1% compared to the previous value [7]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) is 1,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) is 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The 09 contract is 919 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 2.44% compared to the previous value; the 01 contract is 968 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 2.64% compared to the previous value. - The 09 basis is 2 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the 01 basis is - 48 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - JM09 - JM01 is - 50 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. - Sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 290 yuan, down 2 yuan or -

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the non-US region's electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt copper prices. The main focus is on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,950 - 3,250 this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a squeeze caused by policy changes in Guinea and the reduction of warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is currently at a high level but is expected to face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances. The reference price range for the main contract this week is 19,950 - 20,750 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly, with the main reference range of 19,400 - 20,200. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the zinc price center may move down. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high levels [12]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000. The overall supply may decrease, but the demand is weak and the inventory reduction is slow [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong in a certain range, with the main reference range of 63,000 - 70,000. However, there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The focus is on the upstream operation actions [19]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,286 yuan/ton, an increase of 120.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 monthly spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price (ex - factory price) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% from the previous month. The import volume is 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% from the previous month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread is - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in the current period is 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The import volume is 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% from the previous month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is - 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.48% from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% from the previous month. The demand was 83,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are mainly in a range - bound consolidation trend, dragged down by the negative factors of increasing production and decreasing exports. The domestic continuous palm oil futures are expected to be bullish in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 8,800 yuan resistance [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The market continues to digest the positive news of biodiesel. The short - term positive news of biodiesel continues to boost the CBOT soybean oil market. The domestic spot price rises with the market, but the basis quotation is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Meal**: The expectation of US soybean exports is improving, but the new - crop excellent rate exceeds market expectations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is in a low - level shock. The short - term soybean meal may have further upward space, and it is advisable to operate cautiously and bullishly [3]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig spot market is running weakly. The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. The 09 contract has accumulated upward pressure, and it is advisable to operate bearishly when the price is high [5]. - **Corn**: The short - term market's weak sentiment has not been fully alleviated, and the futures price remains weak. In the medium - term, the supply of corn is tight, and the third - quarter supply - demand situation supports the corn price. Attention should be paid to the scale of subsequent auctions [7]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, and the raw sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and it is advisable to have a bearish view after a rebound, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan [10]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate in a moderately bullish range. In the long - term, the cotton price will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the demand may gradually improve. The egg price is expected to rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On July 17, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,290 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8,072 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.37%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil remained unchanged at 8,770 yuan, while the futures price of P2509 was 8,796 yuan, up 74 yuan or 0.85%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil remained unchanged at 6,000 yuan, and the futures price of O1509 was 9,440 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.32% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The three - oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) remained unchanged at 42 yuan; the palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 20 yuan, up 2 yuan or 11.11%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 66 yuan, down 6 yuan or - 8.33%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 480 yuan, up 30 yuan or 5.88%; the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread was - 724 yuan, down 44 yuan or - 6.47% [1]. 2. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2,860 yuan, up 40 yuan or 1.42% from the previous day; the futures price of M2509 is 3,029 yuan, up 52 yuan or 1.75%. The basis of M2509 is - 169 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 7.64% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2,610 yuan, up 50 yuan or 1.95%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,653 yuan, up 66 yuan or 2.49%. The basis of RM2509 is - 109 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 17.20% [3]. 3. Live Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract is 390 yuan, down 200 yuan or - 33.90% from the previous day; the price of the live pig 2511 contract is 13,535 yuan, up 45 yuan or 0.33%; the price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,060 yuan, up 50 yuan or 0.36%. The 9 - 11 spread is 525 yuan, up 5 yuan or 0.96% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,450 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Shandong is 14,600 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13,700 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Liaoning is 14,250 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price in Guangdong is 15,840 yuan, down 300 yuan; the price in Hunan is 14,060 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Hebei is 14,500 yuan, down 100 yuan [5]. 4. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2509 contract is 2,296 yuan, up 3 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.43%. The basis is 44 yuan, down 13 yuan or - 22.81% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2509 contract is 2,646 yuan, up 1 yuan or 0.27%. The basis is 34 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 17.07% [7]. 5. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract is 5,655 yuan, up 19 yuan or 0.34%; the price of the sugar 2509 contract is 5,828 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.34%. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.75 cents per pound, up 0.20 cents or 1.21% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5,905 yuan, up 25 yuan or 0.43%. The Nanning basis is 222 yuan, down 20 yuan or - 8.26%; the Kunming basis is 77 yuan, up 5 yuan or 6.94% [10]. 6. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2509 contract is 14,250 yuan, up 260 yuan or 1.86%; the price of the cotton 2601 contract is 13,960 yuan, up 95 yuan or 0.69%. The ICE US cotton main contract is 68.84 cents per pound, up 0.28 cents or 0.41% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15,316 yuan, up 101 yuan or 0.66%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15,354 yuan, up 82 yuan or 0.54% [12]. 7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3,595 yuan per 500 kg, up 4 yuan or 0.11%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3,462 yuan per 500 kg, up 8 yuan or 0.23%. The basis is - 738 yuan per 500 kg, up 124 yuan or 14.36% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.86 yuan per jin, up 0.13 yuan or 4.68% [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It shows the changes in total positions, main - contract positions, and the important changes in the top 20 seats of each variety on July 17, 2025 [1][5][10]. 3. Summary by Variety IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) - Total position: Slightly increased, with an increase of 7308 hands on July 17, and the main - contract 2509 position increased by 5957 hands [5]. - Top 20 long - position seats: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45635 hands. Dongzheng Futures had the most long - position increase (2194 hands), and Zheshang Futures had the most long - position decrease (572 hands) [5]. - Top 20 short - position seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 49585 hands. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase (1901 hands), and Guotou Futures had the most short - position decrease (191 hands) [7]. IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) - Total position: Slightly increased, with an increase of 3275 hands on July 17, and the main - contract 2509 position increased by 2448 hands. The main contract was switched to 09 [10]. - Top 20 long - position seats: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 12236 hands. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase (1252 hands), and Huatai Futures had the most long - position decrease (179 hands) [11]. - Top 20 short - position seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 15291 hands. Dongzheng Futures had the most short - position increase (682 hands), and Guoxin Futures had the most short - position decrease (180 hands) [12]. IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) - Total position: Remained stable, with an increase of 188 hands on July 17. The 07 contract expired on Friday, and the main contract was switched to 09, resulting in a relatively large increase in positions [16]. - Top 20 long - position seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 34598 hands. Dongzheng Futures had the most long - position increase (576 hands), and Guoxin Futures had the most long - position decrease (527 hands) [17]. - Top 20 short - position seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41518 hands. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase (346 hands), and Guojun Futures had the most short - position decrease (818 hands) [18]. IM (CSI 1000 Index Futures) - Total position: Slightly increased, with an increase of 5351 hands on July 17, and the main - contract 2509 position increased by 5180 hands [23]. - Top 20 long - position seats: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 41978 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase (2979 hands), and Zhongtai Futures had the most long - position decrease (624 hands) [24]. - Top 20 short - position seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 63825 hands. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase (2593 hands), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease (706 hands) [26].

Report Overview - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated July 18, 2025, providing data on various commodities and financial futures including their spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles [3]. Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price of 5482, futures price of 5628, basis of 146, basis rate of 2.66%, historical quantile of 76.40% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Futures price of 5794, basis rate of 39.20%, basis rate of 1.31% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price of 3220, futures price of 3133, basis of 87, basis rate of 2.78%, historical quantile of 45.40% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price of 3320, futures price of 3292, basis of 28, basis rate of 0.85%, historical quantile of 28.80% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price of 820, futures price of 786, basis of 34, basis rate of 4.41%, historical quantile of 30.30% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price of 1518, futures price of 1392, basis of - 127, basis rate of - 8.35%, historical quantile of 23.50% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price of 920, futures price of 919, basis of 1, basis rate of 0.16%, historical quantile of 14.70% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2508)**: Spot price of 78020, futures price of 77840, basis of 180, basis rate of 0.23%, historical quantile of 61.87% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price of 20570, futures price of 20415, basis of 155, basis rate of 0.76%, historical quantile of 84.16% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price of 3179, futures price of 3089, basis of 90, basis rate of 2.93%, historical quantile of 57.70% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: Spot price of 22130, futures price of 22040, basis of - 90, basis rate of - 0.41%, historical quantile of 20% [1]. - **Tin (SN2508)**: Spot price of 261900, futures price of 261920, basis of - 20, basis rate of - 0.01%, historical quantile of 44.58% [1]. - **Nickel (NISE08)**: Spot price of 119880, futures price of 119800, basis of 80, basis rate of 0.07%, historical quantile of 50.62% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: Spot price of 12920, futures price of 12730, basis of 190, basis rate of 1.49%, historical quantile of 43.56% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price of 770.9, futures price of 776.3, basis of - 5.4, basis rate of - 0.69%, historical quantile of 1.20% [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price of 9123.0, futures price of 9166.0, basis of - 43.0, basis rate of - 0.47%, historical quantile of 9.80% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price of 3029.0, futures price of 2860, basis of 169.0, basis rate of 5.58%, historical quantile of 6.30% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price of 8150, futures price of 8072.0, basis of 78.0, basis rate of 0.97%, historical quantile of 7.20% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price of 8840, futures price of 8796.0, basis of 44.0, basis rate of 0.50%, historical quantile of 21.40% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price of 2719.0, futures price of 2590, basis of 129.0, basis rate of 4.74%, historical quantile of 12.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: Spot price of 9570, futures price of 9440.0, basis of 130.0, basis rate of 1.38%, historical quantile of 49.40% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price of 2340, futures price of 2296.0, basis of 44.0, basis rate of 1.92%, historical quantile of 68.20% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Spot price of 2740, futures price of 2646.0, basis of 94.0, basis rate of 3.55%, historical quantile of 41.40% [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2509)**: Spot price of 14450, futures price of 14060.0, basis of 390.0, basis rate of 2.77%, historical quantile of 48.60% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price of 3595.0, futures price of 2760, basis of 835.0, basis rate of 23.23%, historical quantile of 2.70% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price of 15316, futures price of 14250.0, basis of 1066.0, basis rate of 7.48%, historical quantile of 68.60% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price of 6120, futures price of 5828.0, basis of 292.0, basis rate of 5.01%, historical quantile of 56.10% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price of 8600, futures price of 7835.0, basis of 765.0, basis rate of 9.76%, historical quantile of 60.00% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price of 10380.0, futures price of 8300, basis of 2080.0, basis rate of 20.04%, historical quantile of 11.40% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX509)**: Spot price of 6861.0, futures price of 6742.0, basis of 119.0, basis rate of 1.77%, historical quantile of 60.30% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price of 4730.0, futures price of 4714.0, basis of 16.0, basis rate of 0.34%, historical quantile of 56.80% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price of 4440.0, futures price of 4372.0, basis of 68.0, basis rate of 1.56%, historical quantile of 84.20% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price of 6625.0, futures price of 6360.0, basis of 265.0, basis rate of 4.17%, historical quantile of 89.50% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2508)**: Spot price of 7400.0, futures price of 7284.0, basis of 116.0, basis rate of 1.59%, historical quantile of 51.10% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price of 2387.5, futures price of 2373.0, basis of 14.5, basis rate of 0.61%, historical quantile of 49.10% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price of 1800.0, futures price of 1743.0, basis of 57.0, basis rate of 3.27%, historical quantile of 29.70% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price of 7200.0, futures price of 7215.0, basis of - 15.0, basis rate of - 0.21%, historical quantile of 16.20% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price of 7105.0, futures price of 7020.0, basis of 85.0, basis rate of 1.21%, historical quantile of 44.80% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price of 4955.0, futures price of 4840.0, basis of 115.0, basis rate of 2.32%, historical quantile of 47.80% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH209)**: Spot price of 2625.0, futures price of 2484.0, basis of 141.0, basis rate of 5.68%, historical quantile of 71.10% [1]. - **LPG (PG2508)**: Spot price of 4498.0, futures price of 4078.0, basis of 420.0, basis rate of 10.30%, historical quantile of 58.90% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price of 3820.0, futures price of 3628.0, basis of 192.0, basis rate of 5.29%, historical quantile of 81.90% [1]. - **BR (BR2508)**: Spot price of 11700.0, futures price of 11570.0, basis of 130.0, basis rate of 1.12%, historical quantile of 41.40% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price of 1092.0, futures price of 1084.0, basis of 8.0, basis rate of 0.74%, historical quantile of 61.34% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price of 1225.0, futures price of 1215.0, basis of 10.0, basis rate of 0.82%, historical quantile of 26.68% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price of 14665.0, futures price of 14550.0, basis of - 115.0, basis rate of 0.79%, historical quantile of 87.29% [1]. Financial Futures - **IF2509.CFE**: Spot price of 4011.8, futures price of 4034.5, basis of - 22.7, basis rate of - 0.57%, historical quantile of 44.00% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price of 2741.4, futures price of 2744.3, basis of - 2.9, basis rate of - 0.10%, historical quantile of 19.60% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price of 6082.5, futures price of 5978.0, basis of 104.5, basis rate of 1.75%, historical quantile of 2.20% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price of 6535.7, futures price of 6390.4, basis of 145.3, basis rate of 2.27%, historical quantile of 7.80% [1]. - **TS2509**: Spot price of 100.33, futures price of 102.44, basis of - 2.11, basis rate of - 2.09%, historical quantile of 21.00% [1]. - **TF2509**: Spot price of 100.96, futures price of 106.04, basis of - 5.08, basis rate of - 4.99%, historical quantile of 25.40% [1]. - **T2509**: Spot price of 101.20, futures price of 108.88, basis of - 7.68, basis rate of - 7.59%, historical quantile of 17.10% [1]. - **TL2509**: Spot price of 120.73, futures price of 136.48, basis of - 15.75, basis rate of - 13.04%, historical quantile of 43.00% [1].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of the US energy market have changed synchronously recently. Crude oil inventories have declined, ending three consecutive weeks of growth, while refinery processing volumes have continued to decline, and crude oil production and rig counts have steadily decreased, indicating weakening expansion momentum on the supply side. The refined oil market is differentiated, with gasoline demand seasonally falling and inventories rising, suggesting the end of the summer consumption peak, while distillate and diesel inventories, though increasing, remain at historically low levels, and the structurally tight pattern remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Inventory and Supply - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.86 million barrels to about 422 million barrels in the week ending July 11, the largest decline in nearly a month and the first drop in three weeks, exceeding market expectations and showing a divergence in market expectations [2]. - Cushing's crude oil inventory in Oklahoma slightly increased but remained at the lowest seasonal level since 2014, indicating a tight spot supply [2]. - Crude oil production fell to 13.375 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week, and the number of oil well rigs has continued to decline for 11 consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since September 2021, suggesting further limitations on future crude oil production expansion [2]. 3.2 Refinery Processing - Refinery crude oil processing volumes have declined for the second consecutive week, falling below 17 million barrels per day, the lowest level since spring and lower than the seasonal level of the same period last year. Except for the East Coast, processing volumes in all PADD regions have decreased [3]. - Some refineries in certain regions have been affected by unexpected factors, which may further reduce processing volumes. For example, at least one major refinery on the Gulf Coast has cut operations due to crude oil quality issues, and refineries in the East Coast, Texas, and the Rocky Mountains are at risk of processing volumes falling below 17 million barrels per day due to power outages [3]. 3.3 Refined Oil Market - In the gasoline market, inventories rose to the highest level since April this week, increasing by 3.4 million barrels and approaching the four - year seasonal high. Demand fell below 9 million barrels per day for the first time since early June, and gasoline futures fell by about 1.5% on the day. Regionally, West Coast gasoline inventories rose to the highest level since early August, and East Coast inventories reached the highest level since early March [4]. - In the distillate and diesel markets, inventories increased by 4.17 million barrels in the week ending July 11, the third - largest increase on record in 2025, but still remained at a very low historical level. Demand was at the high end of the five - year seasonal range, and the increase in inventories was mainly due to a surge in imports and a decline in exports. Diesel inventories rose for the first time in four weeks to about 107 million barrels but remained at the lowest seasonal level since 1996 [4][5]. 3.4 Crude Oil Exports US crude oil exports are expected to continue to rise, exceeding 3 million barrels per day, but are not expected to exceed 3.5 million barrels per day. After the restart of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day crude oil unit at BP's Rotterdam refinery, exports may continue to increase [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It provides market conditions, news, capital flows, and operational suggestions for each sector, aiming to offer investors insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed a decline with volume contraction, and structural themes were active. Four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. Amid new US trade policy negotiation windows, it's advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market was in a narrow - range oscillation. With the central bank's increased open - market operations, the bond market sentiment improved. A range - bound operation strategy is recommended, and one can consider a curve - steepening strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Rumors of Trump dismissing the Fed chairman affected market sentiment, causing precious metals to rise. Gold has a long - term upward trend, but currently lacks a clear driver. Silver may have further upward potential, and it's recommended to buy on dips [8][10][11]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - **Container Shipping Futures**: The futures market oscillated downward. The 08 contract is expected to be strong, and it's advisable to be bullish on it [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US tariffs will change the supply pattern, and the market will focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations. The short - term view is a weakening oscillation [15][16][19]. - **Alumina**: Spot supply is temporarily tight, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to short on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: High - level prices are under pressure. The short - term view is a wide - range oscillation [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market is in a weak state during the off - season, with a weakening oscillation expected [24][25]. - **Zinc**: Inventories are increasing, and demand is expected to be weak. The short - term view is an oscillation [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to recover, and it's recommended to hold short positions [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The market oscillates strongly, but industrial overcapacity restricts upward movement. The short - term view is an interval adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market oscillates, with the short - term view being an interval operation [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is strong due to news, but fundamental pressure remains. The short - term view is a strong - range oscillation [39][40][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Valuation is being repaired, and the market may enter an oscillating phase [43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is oscillating strongly. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are strong, and it's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coking - coal spread operation [49][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to rebound. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coke spread operation [52][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: US soybeans have strong bottom support, and domestic meal prices are supported by rising import costs. It's advisable to be cautiously bullish [58][59][60]. - **Pigs**: There is potential supply pressure, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [61][62]. - **Corn**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating and correcting [63].

业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月17日 我就必 Z0019144 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | --- | | 品种 | 7月16日 | 7月15日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2625.0 | 2625.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2740.0 | 2740.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4840.0 | 4850.0 | -10.0 | -0.2% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5050.0 | 5050.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2466.0 | 2512.0 | -46.0 | -1.8% | | | SH2601 | 2451.0 | 2500.0 | -49.0 | -2.0% | | | SH基美 | 159.0 | 113.0 | 46.0 | 40.7% | 元/吨 | | SH2509-2601 | 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market sentiment weakened, with the 09 contract dropping about 30 points. Although the overall market sentiment had improved earlier, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains in surplus, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to watch for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. - The glass futures market sentiment declined yesterday, while the spot market remained strong. Currently, it is the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Logs - Yesterday, the log futures market fluctuated slightly stronger. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the off - season for demand and seasonal reduction in supply from New Zealand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose by 90 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to the increase in warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price increased. There is still room for the futures price to catch up with the spot price. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and there are both positive and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber price rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental situation is still weak. It is recommended to short at the price range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to raw material supply and US tariff changes [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China increased by 30 yuan/ton with a 2.80% increase. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.95% [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output remained unchanged. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87%, while soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.98% and 4.39% respectively. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures: The 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts increased slightly, while the 2507 contract decreased slightly. The basis of the 09, 11, and 01 contracts decreased [2]. - Spot prices: The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, except for a 1.39% decrease in the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port [2]. Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [2]. Inventory - Weekly inventory: The national inventory decreased by 0.31%, with a 1.66% decrease in Shandong and a 1.93% increase in Jiangsu [2]. Demand - Weekly demand: The daily average outbound volume decreased by 12% nationwide, with a 9% decrease in Shandong and a 14% decrease in Jiangsu [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passed S15530 and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon increased, while the basis of some varieties decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2512 - 2601 increased significantly, while the spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national output and operating rate decreased, while the output and operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17.46%, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of N - type granular silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of N - type and cauliflower - type decreased [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract increased by 1.69%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. Monthly: The polysilicon output increased, and the import and export volumes changed [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of some rubber varieties increased slightly, and the basis and non - standard spread changed [5]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.69%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the output in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The tire export volume increased [5]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly [5].