Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided text. It mainly contains a large amount of data on various commodities' spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5668, futures price is 5728, basis is -60, basis rate is -1.06%, and historical quantile is 61.90% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 6020, futures price is 6517 (converted price), basis is -497, and historical quantile is not given [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3320, futures price is 3168, basis is 152, basis rate is 4.80%, and historical quantile is 62.80% [1]. - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3290, futures price is 3317, basis is -27, basis rate is -0.81%, and historical quantile is 8.40% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 881, futures price is 813 (converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder), basis is 68, basis rate is 8.42%, and historical quantile is 53.50% [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1765, futures price is 1745, basis is 20, basis rate is 1.13%, and historical quantile is 53.15% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1190, futures price is 1156 (converted price of S1.3 G75 main - coking coal), basis is 34, basis rate is 2.86%, and historical quantile is 23.60% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2602)**: Spot price is 100275, futures price is 101410, basis is -1135, basis rate is -1.12%, and historical quantile is 2.50% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: Spot price is 24030, futures price is 24330, basis is -300, basis rate is -1.2%, and historical quantile is 2.50% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: Spot price is 23960, futures price is 23970, basis is -10, basis rate is -0.04%, and historical quantile is 62.08% [1]. - **Tin (SN2602)**: Spot price is 352540, futures price is 349750, basis is 2790, basis rate is 0.79%, and historical quantile is 10.00% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2605)**: Spot price is 137600, futures price is 139090, basis is -1490, basis rate is -1.07%, and historical quantile is 8.54% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Spot price is 13860, futures price is 13970, basis is -110, basis rate is -0.79%, and historical quantile is 21.45% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 140000, futures price is 143420, basis is -3420, basis rate is -2.38%, and historical quantile is 13.65% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SIS605)**: Spot price is 9250, futures price is 8715, basis is 535, basis rate is 6.14%, and historical quantile is 32.44% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Spot price is 1002.9, futures price is 1006.5, basis is -3.6, basis rate is -0.40%, and historical quantile is 17.80% [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: Spot price is 18759.0, futures price is 18731.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 96.90% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3100, futures price is 2786.0, basis is 314.0, basis rate is 11.27%, and historical quantile is 71.20% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8430, futures price is 7994.0, basis is 436.0, basis rate is 5.45%, and historical quantile is 75.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 8682.0, futures price is 8640, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 0.48%, and historical quantile is 14.10% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2520, futures price is 2338.0, basis is 182.0, basis rate is 7.78%, and historical quantile is 81.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price is 9770, futures price is 9042.0, basis is 728.0, basis rate is 8.05%, and historical quantile is 94.90% [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Spot price is 2340, futures price is 2263.0, basis is 77.0, basis rate is 3.40%, and historical quantile is 74.30% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Spot price is 2620, futures price is 2535.0, basis is 85.0, basis rate is 3.35%, and historical quantile is 39.00% [1]. - **Live Pigs (H2603)**: Spot price is 12900, futures price is 11770.0, basis is 1130.0, basis rate is 9.60%, and historical quantile is 81.00% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot price is 3130, futures price is 3040.0, basis is 90.0, basis rate is 2.96%, and historical quantile is 46.90% [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 15750, futures price is 14675.0, basis is 1075.0, basis rate is 7.33%, and historical quantile is 70.10% [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5390, futures price is 5288.0, basis is 102.0, basis rate is 1.93%, and historical quantile is 15.10% [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9689.0, futures price is 9200, basis is 489.0, basis rate is -5.05%, and historical quantile is 7.90% [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ605)**: Spot price is 8200, futures price is 9150.0, basis is -950.0, basis rate is -10.38%, and historical quantile is 46.50% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX603)**: Spot price is 7178.0, futures price is 7238.0, basis is -60.0, basis rate is -0.83%, and historical quantile is 16.20% [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 5108.0, futures price is 5045.0, basis is 63.0, basis rate is 1.23%, and historical quantile is 32.40% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 3715.0, futures price is 3866.0, basis is -151.0, basis rate is -3.91%, and historical quantile is 5.40% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603)**: Spot price is 6520.0, futures price is 6486.0, basis is 34.0, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 51.40% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2602)**: Spot price is 7005.0, futures price is 6895.0, basis is 110.0, basis rate is 1.60%, and historical quantile is 51.00% [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2242.0, futures price is 2273.0, basis is -31.0, basis rate is -1.36%, and historical quantile is 18.80% [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1777.0, futures price is 1750.0, basis is 27.0, basis rate is 1.52%, and historical quantile is 9.20% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 6530.0, futures price is 6674.0, basis is -144.0, basis rate is -2.16%, and historical quantile is 1.60% [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 6387.0, futures price is 6514.0, basis is -127.0, basis rate is -1.95%, and historical quantile is 3.00% [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 4620.0, futures price is 4897.0, basis is -277.0, basis rate is -5.66%, and historical quantile is 10.20% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price is 2150.0, futures price is 2224.0, basis is -74.0, basis rate is -3.33%, and historical quantile is 32.20% [1]. - **LPG (PG2602)**: Spot price is 4221.0, futures price is 4858.0, basis is -637.0, basis rate is -15.09%, and historical quantile is 80.40% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: Spot price is 3171.0, futures price is 3080.0, basis is 91.0, basis rate is 2.87%, and historical quantile is 31.90% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2602)**: Spot price is 12015.0, futures price is 11900.0, basis is 115.0, basis rate is 0.95%, and historical quantile is 17.80% [1]. - **Float Glass (FG605)**: Spot price is 1144.0, futures price is 952.0, basis is 192.0, basis rate is 20.17%, and historical quantile is 3.57% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Spot price is 1228.0, futures price is 1188.0, basis is 40.0, basis rate is 3.37%, and historical quantile is 28.84% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price is 16030.0, futures price is 15700.0, basis is 330.0, basis rate is 2.10%, and historical quantile is 76.93% [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2603.CFF**: Spot price is 4758.9, futures price is 4743.8, basis is 15.1, basis rate is 0.32%, and historical quantile is 30.20% [1]. - **IH2603.CFE**: Spot price is 3134.8, futures price is 3134.3, basis is 0.5, basis rate is 0.02%, and historical quantile is 59.10% [1]. - **IC2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8056.7, futures price is 8037.8, basis is 18.9, basis rate is 0.23%, and historical quantile is 55.30% [1]. - **IM2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8129.2, futures price is 8048.4, basis is 80.8, basis rate is 1.00%, and historical quantile is 20.70% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **2 - year Bond (TS2603)**: Spot price is 102.34, futures price is 100.05, basis is 2.29 (after considering conversion factor 0.9774), basis rate is 2.29% (approx.), and historical quantile is 36.30% [1]. - **5 - year Bond (TF2603)**: Spot price is 105.57, futures price is 99.37, basis is 6.2 (after considering conversion factor 0.9412), basis rate is 6.2% (approx.), and historical quantile is 29.70% [1]. - **10 - year Bond (T2603)**: Spot price is 107.78, futures price is 100.20, basis is 7.58 (after considering conversion factor 0.9288), basis rate is 7.58% (approx.), and historical quantile is 28.60% [1]. - **30 - year Bond (TL2603)**: Spot price is 125.38, futures price is 110.87, basis is 14.51 (after considering conversion factor 1.1263), basis rate is 14.51% (approx.), and historical quantile is 74.20% [1].

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 ast be 生活信公众 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月12日 | | | | 04億元 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品中 | 1月9日 | 1月8日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | 1006.48 | 997.94 | 8.54 | 0.86% | 元/完 | | AG2604合约 | 18731 | 18450 | 281 | 1.52% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | 527.25 | 589.85 | -62.60 | -10.61% | 元/兄 | | PD2606合约 | 425.20 | 447.45 | -22.25 | -4.97% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 元相 | 1月9日 | 1月8日 | 涨跌 | 张跃帽 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4518.40 | 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 1 more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume is about 47.9 million cubic meters, 7.05 million cubic meters more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [2] - The 01 contract continues to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remains poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, and the upside is limited. Overall, the contradictions are insufficient, and the upward and downward drivers are limited. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On January 9, the price of log 2601 was 742.0, unchanged from January 8; log 2603 was 774.5, down 4.0 from January 8 with a decline of - 0.51%; log 2605 was 787.0, down 2.0 with a decline of - 0.25%; log 2607 was 798.0, down 2.5 with a decline of - 0.31%. The basis of the main contract was - 34.5, up 4.0 from January 8 [1] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged from January 8 to January 9. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars with a decline of - 1.79%; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged [1] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 12, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.976, unchanged from January 11. The import theoretical cost was 755.70 yuan, down 13.87 yuan from January 11 with a decline of - 2% [1] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - Port inventory: On November 30, it was 191.4 million cubic meters, up 2.2 million cubic meters from October 31 with an increase of 1.16% [1] - Departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea: The number of departing ships was 52.0, up 3.0 from the previous period with an increase of 6.12% [1] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 2, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 267 million cubic meters, up 13 million cubic meters from December 26 with an increase of 5.12%. In Shandong, it was 195.00 million cubic meters, up 9.8 million cubic meters from December 26 with an increase of 5.29% [1] 3.5 Demand (Weekly) - As of January 2, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 5.65 million cubic meters, down 0.18 million cubic meters from the previous week with a decline of - 3%. In Shandong, it was 2.89 million cubic meters, up 0.10 million cubic meters with an increase of 4%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.17 million cubic meters, down 0.27 million cubic meters with a decline of - 11% [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Apple - The trading atmosphere in the national apple market has warmed up, with increased market activity. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption. Other fruits, such as citrus, have price advantages and squeeze the apple market. The inventory of ordinary apples is under pressure. Due to low inventory and a low rate of high - quality apples, the futures market has been oscillating upwards recently, and the delivery profit has been repaired. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress [1][5]. Red Dates - Affected by the warming sentiment in the commodity market, the futures market has rebounded and the basis has converged. The purchase in the production areas is basically over, and processing enterprises are actively arranging production and accelerating the shipment rhythm. New and old stocks are being supplied to the market. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing as needed, and the number of buyers inspecting goods has increased, but there has been no significant improvement in transactions. The process of generating new - season warehouse receipts has accelerated. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the rebound of red date futures is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual de - stocking progress [8]. Sugar - Internationally, the market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane crushing season starting in April. Since December, rainfall in most major producing areas in the central - southern region has exceeded the average, which is beneficial for the growth of sugar - cane in the 26/27 season and has improved the production outlook. The market initially expects the sugar - cane yield per unit area to increase by about 3% year - on - year. In India, production is strong, with cumulative sugar production reaching 11.83 million tons as of the end of December, a 24% year - on - year increase. However, due to the lack of price competitiveness, the current export progress is slow. In Thailand, the sugar - cane crushing season is progressing slowly. Domestically, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, generally in line with market expectations. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises still have a certain scale of procurement demand, which can support prices. However, considering the current situation of increased production, market participants are generally cautious. It is expected that sugar prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend [9]. Cotton - The drought index in the US cotton - producing areas continues to rise, in line with the expectations of a weak La Nina winter. However, the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, and the positive factors in the industrial fundamentals have been fully priced in. The widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices will gradually allow imported cotton to enter the market with a 40% tariff, and the unfavorable factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing. Overall, the upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the support level around the 14,100 - 14,300 moving average [11]. Oils and Fats - After the release of the USDA monthly report at the beginning of the week, the uncertainty makes it unlikely for funds to continue to go long on CBOT soybeans. Moreover, as Brazilian soybeans are about to be on the market, even if CBOT soybeans rise, they will likely correct later. The market is waiting for guidance from the USDA report. If the report causes CBOT soybeans to rise, the March contract of CBOT soybeans will test the resistance at 50 cents. Malaysian palm oil futures have been oscillating upwards, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report next Monday. The international oil market has been boosted by the more than 3% increase in the US crude oil futures price and the follow - up rise of US soybeans, which is beneficial for the domestic vegetable oil market. The negative impact of the news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has been basically digested, and short - selling funds have taken profits and left the market. The rapeseed oil futures have rebounded above 9,000 yuan. Before the release of key information such as the US agricultural supply - demand report, Malaysian palm oil inventory data, and possible policy changes after the China - Canada meeting, the futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern. In the spot market, the wait - and - see sentiment is still strong, and downstream buyers are replenishing stocks in small quantities as needed. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis quotation continues to be high [12]. Eggs - On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profitability, leading to a decrease in farmers' enthusiasm for culling laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly compared with the previous period. However, due to the influence of weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small and medium - sized eggs compared with large - sized eggs. The market shows a structural differentiation. Considering factors such as increased production capacity and reduced culling, the current market supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and their procurement volume is continuously increasing. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the festival stocking plans of all links in the terminal consumer market have been gradually launched, and the willingness to purchase at low prices has increased. However, there has been no significant change in the procurement intensity of household consumption. The current increase in demand is mainly reflected in the inventory turnover of the trading link. In the coming week, pre - Spring Festival stocking will still be the core driving force for market demand growth. After the recent price increase, the market has short - term digestion pressure and may experience a slight decline. However, the positive support factors in the market are clear, and it is expected that after a short - term adjustment, there may still be a slight increase. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around the previous high of 3,100 [13]. Corn - On the supply side, in the Northeast region, the price is strongly supported by the price - holding attitude of grass - roots farmers and the rigid - demand stocking of some downstream enterprises. In the North China region, the supply can meet the needs of enterprises, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced, with prices oscillating within a narrow range. If the supply increases before the Spring Festival, prices may weaken. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises still have the intention to replenish stocks, but their profits are slightly in the red, and they are less willing to accept high - priced corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. On the policy side, the targeted auction of imported corn continues, and although there is a premium, it has cooled down. The policy - based corn supply is currently limited, and attention should be paid to its subsequent intensity. In general, the strong price - holding sentiment and the rigid - demand stocking intention of downstream enterprises support the corn price. However, the profit losses of downstream enterprises limit their acceptance of high prices, and the continuous policy - based supply suppresses the upward momentum of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 2,270, as well as changes in farmers' selling attitudes and policy - based supply [16]. Live Pigs - The spot price has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. The supply in the north has decreased, while the demand in the south has dropped significantly, and purchasing power is weak, suppressing the spot price. Recently, there has been some restocking for secondary fattening in some areas, but due to the relatively high current pig price, the overall enthusiasm is limited. However, the average weight of the存栏 has been increasing, and the subsequent market supply is expected to increase. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that pigs will be slaughtered gradually in mid - to - late January. Coupled with the expected increase in supply from large - scale farms, the overall supply in January will be relatively loose, and there is limited room for further upward movement in the futures market. It is recommended to short at high prices [18][19]. Meal - The US soybeans are strongly influenced by funds and sentiment. The market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report on Monday, which may provide new trading guidance. In China, the speed of soybean purchases is relatively fast, and the supply will be continuously supplemented by US soybeans and reserve auctions. The visit of Canada to China has brought positive signals, and there is an expectation of improved China - Canada relations, which has led to a significant decline in domestic rapeseed prices and dragged down the soybean meal market. The domestic spot market remains in a loose pattern, with high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal. There are also many expectations of auctions recently, which also put pressure on the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, the arrival rhythm is uncertain. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy factors. In the short term, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the futures market will maintain a range - bound oscillation [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main contract) increased by 158 yuan/ton to 9,689 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.66%. The price of the apple 2610 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton to 8,472 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.25%. The futures open interest increased by 23,520 lots to 156,793 lots, a rise of 17.65% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets has increased, with the arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market increasing by 40%, Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market by 37.5%, and Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market by 33.33%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 126,600 tons to 7.209 million tons, a decline of 1.73% [1]. - **Profit**: The factory - warehouse delivery profit increased by 121 yuan/ton to 457 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.01% [1]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The price of the red date 2605 (main contract) increased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.83%. The open interest increased by 4,234 lots to 154,819 lots, a rise of 2.81% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's extra - grade red dates increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. The basis of extra - grade red dates in Cangzhou relative to the main contract increased by 205 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a rise of 87.80% [8]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 5,288 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.17%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 3,135 lots to 432,813 lots, a rise of 0.73% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,370 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.89% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 317,900 tons to 1.05 million tons, a decline of 23.24%. The cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 259,000 tons to 350,000 tons, a decline of 42.53% [9]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 14,675 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 13,905 lots to 848,986 lots, a decline of 1.61% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton of grade 3128B decreased by 67 yuan/ton to 15,671 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 1.1011 million tons to 5.784 million tons, a rise of 23.5%. The export of textile yarns, fabrics, and related products increased by 10.09 percentage points year - on - year to 0.98% [11]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.35%. The basis of the Y2605 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 526 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.66% [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,680 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%. The basis of the P2605 contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 125% [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.03%. The basis of the OI2605 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 758 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.88% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 03 contract increased by 31 yuan/500KG to 3,040 yuan/500KG, a rise of 1.03%. The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 39 yuan/500KG to 3,316 yuan/500KG, a rise of 1.19% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the production areas remained unchanged at 3.25 yuan/jin. The price of egg - laying chicken chicks increased by 0.10 yuan/feather to 2.90 yuan/feather, a rise of 3.57% [13]. Corn - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2603 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 2,263 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 21,598 lots to 1,969,700 lots, a rise of 1.11% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,330 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.43%. The basis increased by 13 yuan/ton to 67 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.07% [16]. Live Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig 2605 contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1,120 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.08%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2,847 lots to 168,424 lots, a decline of 1.66% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses increased by 903 to 226,460, a rise of 0.40%. The price of piglets increased by 1.0 yuan/head to 16.50 yuan/head, a rise of 6.45% [19]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,150 yuan/ton. The price of the M2605 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.14%. The basis decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 364 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.09% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,420 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%. The price of the RM2605 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,338 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. The basis remained unchanged at 82 yuan/ton [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Stock Index Futures The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures price spreads on January 12, 2026, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It also shows the ratios of different cross - varieties [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures price spreads and bases on January 12, 2026, covering TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals The report shows the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, bases, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and positions of precious metals on January 12, 2026. It also gives investment suggestions such as being bullish on gold above $4300 and keeping light - position low - buying for silver [3]. 2.4 Container Shipping Industry The report provides the settlement price indices, shipping prices, futures prices, bases, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry, including the supply of container shipping capacity, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic data [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads**: IF, IH, IC, and IM have different values and changes in their current - to - spot price spreads, cross - period price spreads, and the ratios of different cross - varieties. For example, the IF current - to - spot price spread is - 15.12, with a change of 4.13 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Bases**: TS, TF, T, and TL have different base values, changes, and percentiles since listing. For example, the TS base on January 9, 2026, is 0.0221, with a change of 0.0151 from the previous trading day and a percentile of 12.70% since listing [2]. - **Cross - Period Price Spreads**: Each type of treasury bond futures has different cross - period price spreads, changes, and percentiles. For example, the TS cross - period price spread of "current quarter - next quarter" on January 9, 2026, is - 0.0420, with a change of - 0.0060 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Price Spreads**: There are different cross - variety price spreads, changes, and percentiles. For example, the TS - TF cross - variety price spread on January 9, 2026, is - 3.2340, with a change of 0.0080 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices of precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have changed. For example, the AU2602 contract of domestic gold futures closed at 1006.48 yuan/g on January 9, 2026, up 0.86% from the previous day [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of precious metals have also changed. For example, the price of London gold on January 9, 2026, is 4509.02 dollars/ounce, up 0.70% from the previous day [3]. - **Bases**: The bases of different precious metals have different values and changes. For example, the base of "gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract" is - 3.56, with a change of - 1.48 and a historical 1 - year percentile of 46.10% [3]. - **Ratios**: The ratios of different precious metals have changed. For example, the ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 56.63, down 3.23% from the previous day [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Interest rates and exchange rates such as 10 - year US Treasury bond yields, 2 - year US Treasury bond yields, and the US dollar index have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventories and positions of precious metals have different changes. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 97653, with no change from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indices**: The settlement price indices of SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US - West route) have increased, while the SCFI comprehensive index has slightly decreased. For example, the SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on October 27, 2026, is 1312.71, up 15.11% from October 20 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Bases**: The prices of different container shipping futures contracts have different changes, and the base of the main contract has also changed. For example, the EC2602 contract price on January 9, 2026, is 1729.8 points, up 1.40% from the previous day, and the base of the main contract is - 213.0, with a change of 1.7 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The supply of global container shipping capacity has not changed, while port - related indicators, export amounts, and some overseas economic data have different changes. For example, the port punctuality rate in Shanghai in December 2026 is 41.81%, up 4.53% from November [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Short - term supply - demand of pure benzene is weak with limited drive, and prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5600. For benzene - ethylene, short - term price support is strong, but the rebound space and sustainability are limited. Suggest to wait and see on the long side and focus on short - selling opportunities for EB03 [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - In Q1, the supply - demand of PX and PTA is expected to weaken. PX prices will fluctuate between 7000 - 7500 in the short - term and can be considered for long positions in the medium - term. PTA will fluctuate between 5000 - 5300 in the short - term and can also be considered for long positions in the medium - term [2]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE, the marginal supply of the standard product is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand are both weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and it is short - term strong [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices maintain a range - bound trend. Geopolitical premiums support price rebounds, but the increase is limited under the weak supply - demand expectation. Pay attention to the pressure around 65 dollars per barrel for Brent [5]. LPG Industry No clear core view provided in the given content. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak - based shock pattern. Glass has good short - term shipments and inventory reduction, but there are still supply - demand pressures [10]. Methanol Industry - Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by the low profit of methanol - to - olefins and potential MTO device maintenance [13]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to be stable and weak. PVC supply - demand remains weak, and short - term pessimism may drag down the price [16]. Urea Industry - Urea prices are suppressed by weak supply - demand. Without new stimuli, they may fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to device restart and downstream demand [17]. Natural Rubber Industry - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate between 15500 - 16500, supported by raw material prices below and suppressed by weak demand above [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.8% to 551 dollars per ton. Pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.3% [1]. - **Benzene - Ethylene Related Prices and Spreads**: Benzene - ethylene spot price in East China rose 1.6% to 7000 yuan per ton, and EB cash flow (non - integrated) increased 42.1% [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Aniline cash flow increased 18.6%, while EPS cash flow decreased 183.3% [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased 6.0%, and benzene - ethylene inventory decreased 4.7% [1]. - **开工率变化**: Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased 1.3%, and domestic benzene - ethylene operating rate increased 0.6% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.8% to 551 dollars per ton [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot price in East China decreased 0.7% to 5035 yuan per ton, and PTA spot processing fee decreased 16.6% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot price in East China decreased 0.5% to 3697 yuan per ton, and MEG import profit decreased 17.4% [2]. - **Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: MEG port inventory decreased 0.7% to 72.5 million tons, and MEG arrival forecast increased 66.4% to 17.8 million tons [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX operating rate increased 0.4%, and PTA operating rate increased 0.1% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: L2605 closed at 6674 yuan per ton, up 0.69%, and PP2605 closed at 6514 yuan per ton, up 0.46% [3]. - **现货价格**: East China PP spot price rose 0.32% to 6300 yuan per ton, and North China LLDPE spot price rose 0.62% to 6520 yuan per ton [3]. - **库存**: PE enterprise inventory increased 6.66% to 39.54 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased 4.69% to 46.77 million tons [3]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased 0.52% to 83.67%, and PP device operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.47% [3]. Crude Oil Industry - **原油价格及价差**: Brent rose 2.18% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and WTI rose 2.35% to 59.12 dollars per barrel [5]. - **成品油价格及价差**: NYM RBOB rose 1.15% to 178.06 cents per gallon, and ICE Gasoil rose 3.69% to 631.75 dollars per ton [5]. - **成品油裂解价差**: US gasoline cracking spread decreased 3.14%, and European gasoline cracking spread increased 8.70% [5]. LPG Industry - **LPG价格及价差**: PG2602 rose 0.52% to 4221 yuan per ton, and PG02 - 03 spread decreased 11.46% [8]. - **LPG外盘价格**: FEI swap M1 contract rose 2.09% to 513.50 dollars per ton, and CP swap M1 contract rose 1.06% to 522.50 dollars per ton [8]. - **库存**: LPG refinery storage ratio decreased 1.94% to 23.8%, and LPG port inventory decreased 0.41% to 213 million tons [8]. - **开工率**: Upstream - main refinery operating rate increased 2.49% to 76.98%, and downstream - PDH operating rate increased 0.68% to 75.6% [8]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **玻璃相关价格及价差**: North China glass quote remained unchanged at 1020 yuan per ton, and glass 2601 decreased 0.30% to 1010 yuan per ton [10]. - **纯碱相关价格及价差**: Northwest soda ash quote rose 2.33% to 880 yuan per ton, and soda ash 2601 decreased 1.30% to 1141 yuan per ton [10]. - **供应**: Soda ash operating rate rose 5.93% to 84.70%, and float glass daily melting volume decreased 0.92% to 15.01 million tons [10]. - **库存**: Glass factory inventory decreased 5.69% to 5551.80 million weight boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased 4.25% to 157.25 million tons [10]. Methanol Industry - **甲醇价格及价差**: MA2605 closed at 2273 yuan per ton, up 1.88%, and MA59 spread increased 150.00% to 2 [11]. - **库存**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased 5.94% to 44.768 million tons, and methanol port inventory increased 4.05% to 153.7 million tons [12]. - **开工率**: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased 0.54% to 78.09%, and downstream - MTO device operating rate decreased 0.59% to 78.88% [13]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC、烧碱现货&期货**: Shandong 32% caustic soda price remained unchanged at 2150 yuan per ton, and East China PVC market price decreased 0.6% to 4620 yuan per ton [16]. - **烧碱海外报价&出口利润**: FOB East China port price decreased 1.4% to 350 dollars per ton, and export profit increased 23.6% to 216.5 yuan per ton [16]. - **PVC海外报价&出口利润**: CFR Southeast Asia price rose 1.7% to 610 dollars per ton, and export profit decreased 12.3% to - 8.8 yuan per ton [16]. - **供给**: Caustic soda operating rate increased 0.4% to 88.9%, and PVC total operating rate increased 2.0% to 78.9% [16]. - **需求**: Alumina industry operating rate increased 0.1% to 80.5%, and PVC downstream product operating rate showed mixed trends [16]. - **库存**: Caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased 1.8% to 23.4 million tons, and PVC total social inventory increased 4.0% to 54.6 million tons [16]. Urea Industry - **期货价格**: Urea 01 contract closed at 1690 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **现货价格**: Shandong small - particle urea price decreased 0.57% to 1750 yuan per ton [17]. - **供需面概览**: Domestic urea daily production rose 0.55% to 20.06 million tons, and domestic urea plant inventory increased 0.29% to 102.22 million tons [17]. Natural Rubber Industry - **现货价格及基差**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber price in Shanghai decreased 0.95% to 15700 yuan per ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased 22.22% to - 330 yuan per ton [18]. - **月间价差**: 9 - 1 spread increased 100.00% to 0 [18]. - **生产及开工率**: November Thai rubber production decreased 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons, and automobile tire semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 2.36% to 65.89% [18]. - **库存变化**: Bonded area inventory increased 4.48% to 548344 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE remained unchanged [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - The spot demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, focus on the impact of policies on the demand expectation of steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. Steel production cuts are significant, with limited downward driving force, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upside space for prices. The upside elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore is shifting towards a situation of both weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is constrained by high inventories, while the downside is supported by the expectation of steel mills' restocking. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a state of loose supply - demand to one of weak supply - demand. During the off - season, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the supply adjustment lags behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure, but the start - up rate is rising. The demand side sees an increase in iron - making water production and a rebound in steel prices at low levels. In terms of inventory, ports and steel mills are accumulating inventory, while coking plants are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. For coking coal, the supply side has a slight increase in daily production after the new year, and imports are recovering. The demand side has a stable increase in iron - making water production, and the restocking demand is warming up. The overall inventory is also slightly increasing at a medium level. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and there is support on the demand side. In the short term, focus on macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. Manganese ore provides price support, and there is also support from off - season demand. Follow - up attention should be paid to the reduction in ferromanganese production and the restocking expectations of steel mills for raw materials during the year - end winter storage. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is to operate within the range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the May contract of rebar fell from 3187 yuan to 3144 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 12 yuan, and the profit of North China rebar increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average iron - making water production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. Rebar production increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.0 to 32.8, a 6.6% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44. to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders slightly increased, and the basis of the May contract for some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The May contract of coke decreased by 17 to 1748, a 1.0% decrease. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal increased by 33 to 1213, a 2.8% increase. The May contract of coking coal increased by 6 to 1196, a 0.5% increase. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 26 to 484, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory increased by 0.2 to 915.7, a 0.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 19.2 to 1071.7, a 1.8% increase, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese generally declined. The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, while the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, while the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 8.5 to 6236.3, a 0.1% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 55.89 to - 139.7 [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 32.2 to 117.4, a 37.8% increase, the arrival volume increased by 19.1 to 669, a 46.8% increase, and the ore - removal volume increased by 8.8 to 64.5, a 15.8% increase. The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 7.9 to 438.9, a 1.8% decrease [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.1 to 29.6, a 0.34% increase, and the ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.1 to 18, a 1.9% decrease, and the ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.1 to 11.6, a 0.74% increase [7]. Inventory Change - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信空头增仓、海通多头减仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 中信多空头各加仓 5000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 国君多空头各增仓超 3000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 证监许可【2011】1292 号 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 联系信息： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 6,540.0 216.0 15,856.0 10,5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the post - holiday caustic soda futures market fluctuated greatly, and the spot market price was generally weak. Supply increased slightly, demand lacked substantial improvement, and the price was expected to remain stable with a weakening trend [3]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC market continued to be strong after the holiday, but the fundamentals were weak. With expected increase in domestic production and weakening demand, along with the cancellation of export tax rebates, the short - term pessimistic sentiment might drag down the PVC trend [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda decreased in most regions, except in Inner Mongolia. The market was affected by macro factors, and the downstream and traders' enthusiasm for purchasing was average [3]. - **Supply**: The industry's operating rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory of caustic soda increased. The national weighted average operating rate was 88.91%, up 0.39 percentage points from last week. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased [21][27]. - **Demand**: The demand from the main downstream industries remained stable at the rigid - demand level. Some areas had an expected decline in alumina prices, which put pressure on caustic soda prices [3]. - **Device Dynamics**: This week, there were fewer maintenance enterprises, and the total maintenance loss was 1.42 tons. Hubei Xingrui planned semi - load maintenance from January 15th to February 5th [28][30]. - **Alumina**: The planned production capacity from the end of 2024 to 2025 was 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual output of over 88 million tons in 2025. The demand for caustic soda increased by about 800,000 tons. The short - term domestic alumina price was expected to decline, ranging from 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Bauxite**: The price was stable, and the inventory was somewhat depleted [41]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The production remained high, and the in - plant inventory decreased [47]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The operating rate declined, and the off - season was approaching [52]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: In November, exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC spot price rebounded slightly this week, affected by overseas device disturbances. The industry's profit was slightly repaired [65][70]. - **Profit**: The price increase led to a slight repair of the industry's profit [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased this week. The overall operating rate was 78.85%, up 1.51 percentage points from last week [80][86]. - **Device Dynamics**: This week, there were fewer maintenance enterprises, and the total maintenance loss was 36,300 tons, a decrease from last week. Next week, the maintenance loss was expected to change little [87][89]. - **Downstream Demand**: The two main downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure. Domestic demand did not improve significantly, and downstream orders were lower than the same period in the past five years [94]. - **Real Estate Data**: The real estate industry was still in the bottom - building cycle [95]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was still at the highest level in recent years [102]. - **External Market and Export**: Some external market prices weakened. In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, and the import volume was 15,700 tons [109][120].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties, including black, non - ferrous, precious metal, agricultural, energy - chemical, and financial sectors [2] Group 2: Black Series - The report provides data on spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, historical quantiles, spot references, and remarks for black series varieties. Historical quantiles range from 8.40% to 62.80% [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Series - For non - ferrous series, data on various aspects are presented. Historical quantiles vary from 5.06% to 99.79% [1] Group 4: Precious Metal Series - In the precious metal series, historical quantiles are between 0.20% and 40.70% [1] Group 5: Agricultural Series - Agricultural series data shows historical quantiles from 11.10% to 94.30% [1] Group 6: Energy - Chemical Series - Energy - chemical series historical quantiles range from 2.10% to 81.70% [1] Group 7: Financial Series - The financial series has a historical quantile of 24.70% [1] Group 8: Data Source - The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Research Institute of GF Futures [4]