Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Although enterprise inventories have started to decline and there is some downstream purchasing enthusiasm in some regions, inventory levels remain high. In the short term, there are no obvious positive factors, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is expected to continue range - bound operation. Supply pressure remains high next week, demand is under pressure both domestically and internationally, and cost - side support is expected to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and prices are not optimistic, expected to continue the weakening trend. [2][3] - Futures strategy advice: Hold short positions for caustic soda and maintain a bearish mindset for PVC; Option strategy advice: Observe for both caustic soda and PVC. [4][5] Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: The caustic soda price has experienced multiple fluctuations due to factors such as macro - environment changes, alumina demand, inventory levels, and cost changes. Currently, it is expected to be weak. [8] - **Supply Situation**: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 89.84%, a 0.02 - percentage - point decrease from last week. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.71%, an increase of 0.26%. On December 10, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China decreased by 5.14% compared to December 3, and in Shandong, it decreased by 18.12%. [27] - **Device Status**: There are multiple caustic soda plants under maintenance or with planned maintenance, such as Wuhai Chemical, Zhejiang Juhua, and Ningbo Wanhua. The total maintenance loss this week is 239 tons. [28] - **Alumina Impact**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual alumina output in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by around 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June. [32] - **Non - Alumina Downstream**: The textile starting rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber starting rate has increased. [51] - **Export Situation**: In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined. [58] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: The PVC price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and energy prices. Currently, the core contradiction is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken. [65][66] - **Profit Situation**: The industry profit has continued to deteriorate, including the profits of different production methods such as the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method. [71] - **Supply Situation**: This week, the domestic PVC powder industry's operating load rate decreased slightly. The overall operating load rate was 78.39%, a 0.62 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among them, the calcium carbide - method PVC powder operating load rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points, and the ethylene - method PVC powder operating load rate increased by 4.75 percentage points. [87] - **Device Status**: There are multiple PVC plants under long - term shutdown, maintenance, or with planned maintenance, such as Taiwen Salt Chemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, and Ningbo Hanhua. [89] - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face pressure from both demand and industry competition. The real - estate sector still gives negative feedback on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. [95] - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with the housing sales price index and land transaction area showing certain trends. [96] - **Inventory Situation**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year. [103] - **External Market and Export**: Some external market prices have weakened. In October 2025, PVC exports were 312,100 tons, with an average export price of $605 per ton. Imports were 10,900 tons, with an average import price of $725 per ton. [110][121]

原木期货日报 日 288.00 297.00 -9.0 -3.03% 0.45% 199.50 山东 万/立方米 198.6 0.9 江苏 74.23 85.09 -10.9 -12.77% 需求: 日均出库量 (周慶) 12月5日 11月28日 涨跌 涨跌幅 地区 单位 中国 6.13 0.53 9% 6.66 0.35 12% 万/立方米 3.39 3.04 山东 江苏 0.09 2.71 2.62 3% 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港口库存(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 2022 =2023 == 2024 = =2025 -2023 =2022 = 2024 2025 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 220 870 =2022 -2020 2021 · 2023 2024 2025 850 180 830 160 8 ...

| 留注 | | | | | | 品种/合约 期货价格 星差 县差率 历史分位数 现货参考 | 现货价格 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | | | | 8 0.15% 硅铁 (SF603) 5470 56.40% | 5478 | | | | 60 | | | | | | 硅罐(SM603) 5730 105% 36.90% 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5790 | | | | 210 | | | | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) 3060 6.86% 72.70% HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3270 | | | | 8 | | | | | | 热卷(HC2605) 3232 0.25% 21.60% Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3240 | | | | 75 | | | | | | 761 9.82% 57.80% 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 铁矿石 (12605) | 835 | | ...

电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 中信多空头各加仓超 4000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多空头各加仓超 1000 手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 海通多头增仓逾 3000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君空头加仓超 3000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 1,266.0 -211.0 51.0 -2,749.0 13,883.0 3,867.0 16,579.0 9,823.0 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Win ...

1. Sugar Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core Viewpoint The sugar price is expected to remain weak in the coming week due to ample supply prospects, with the futures market price weakening and the basis sugar price following suit. There is a lack of positive factors to drive a price rebound [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.71% and 0.59% respectively. The ICE raw sugar主力 rose by 1.62%. The 1 - 5 spread of sugar decreased by 6.19%. The main contract's open interest increased by 6.51%. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.75% respectively. The Nanning basis increased by 9.57%, while the Kunming basis decreased by 12.00%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 73.87%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 68.63%. The national cumulative sales rate decreased by 24.75%, while the cumulative sales rate in Guangxi increased by 20.05%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 7.40%, the industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 80.43%, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 110.00%. Sugar imports increased by 38.89% [2]. 2. Cotton Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core Viewpoint The international cotton market maintains a volatile trend, while the domestic cotton market is expected to be optimistic in the medium - to - long - term but faces constraints in the short - term. The cotton price has limited downside space but faces pressure above, with attention paid to the pressure around 14000 - 14100 [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, and the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.18%. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.27%. The 5 - 1 spread of cotton increased by 250.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 13.59%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.79%, and the valid forecasts increased by 3.43% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B and the CC Index: 3128B increased, while the FC Index: M: 1% decreased. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract and 3128B - 05 contract increased [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The shortage increased by 28.7%, the industrial inventory increased by 0.9%, the import volume decreased by 10.0%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 1.8%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year decreased by 66.7%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 0.1%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 3.9%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 3.1%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products increased by 19.5%, the year - on - year of monthly retail sales increased by 34.0%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products increased by 9.0%, the year - on - year of monthly export increased by 110.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 5.4%, and the year - on - year of export increased by 31.5% [5]. 3. Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core Viewpoint In the short - term, the corn price is relatively firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the upward space is limited by supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling rhythm in the producing areas and the downstream replenishment situation [7]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.04%, the basis increased by 1.75%, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The Shekou bulk grain price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit remained unchanged, the CIF price decreased by 0.13%, and the import profit increased by 1.01%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 42.09%. The open interest decreased by 1.05%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.30% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 increased by 0.12%, the Changchun and Weifang spot prices remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 4.48%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.77%, the starch - corn 01盘面 spread increased by 1.43%. The Shandong starch profit increased by 5.26%. The open interest decreased by 1.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. 4. Oil and Fat Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 4.2 Core Viewpoint Palm oil may continue to weaken, and there is a risk of falling below 4000 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures maintain a volatile and weak adjustment trend. CBOT soybean oil is mainly in a narrow - range volatile adjustment. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the demand is limited. The basis quotation decline may be limited in the short - term [10]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged, the Y2605 futures price decreased by 0.34%, and the basis increased by 8.43% [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.15%, the P2605 futures price decreased by 0.55%, and the basis decreased by 216.67%. The import cost decreased, and the import profit increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20%, the OI2605 futures price increased by 0.09%, and the basis increased by 2.74% [10]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to varying degrees [10]. 5. Pig Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 5.2 Core Viewpoint The spot pig price is stable, and the downward - support ability is enhanced with the increasing demand for pickling in the south. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market. The overall supply pressure is still large, and the price is hard to improve [12]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 31.25%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.68%, the price of pig 2603 increased by 0.94%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 4.17%. The main contract's open interest increased by 0.89%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions changed to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 1.48%, the daily strip price remained unchanged, the piglet price decreased by 2.94%, the sow price decreased by 0.03%, the slaughter weight decreased by 0.15%, the self - breeding profit increased by 2.59%, the purchased - breeding profit increased by 7.21%, and the fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [12]. 6. Egg Industry 6.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 6.2 Core Viewpoint The egg market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply this week. The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited [15]. 6.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 01 contract decreased by 2.13%, the price of the egg 02 contract decreased by 1.58%, the basis increased by 106.60%, and the 1 - 2 spread decreased by 11.36% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.20%, the egg - chick price decreased by 1.75%, the culled - hen price increased by 2.85%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. The terminal consumption is less than expected, and the demand side is insufficient. The production - link inventory and the circulation - link inventory remained unchanged compared with the previous day [15]. 7. Meal Industry 7.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 7.2 Core Viewpoint The medium - to - long - term price of US soybeans is not optimistic. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the unilateral trend is suppressed. Attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread [17]. 7.3 Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The Jiangsu soybean meal price increased by 1.31%, the M2605 futures price increased by 0.73%, the basis increased by 6.45%, and the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased by 40.9% [17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The Jiangsu rapeseed meal price remained unchanged, the RM2605 futures price increased by 1.03%, the basis decreased by 27.59%, and the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased by 2.68% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 0.84%, the basis increased by 15.02%. The price of Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the soybean - two main contract decreased by 0.26%, and the basis increased by 7.41% [17]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - meal inter - period spread, the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread, the soybean - to - meal ratio, and the oil - to - meal ratio changed to varying degrees [17].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月15日 | 品种 | 爰新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -6.95 | 5.63 | 68.80% | 45.20% | -7.84 | 29 90% | 26.60% | H期配分去 | -0.61 | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 4.21 | 12.70 | 98.70% | 90.20% | IM期现价差 | 72.40% | -9.14 | 29.45 | 90.00% | 次月-当月 | -18.40 | 22.50% | 24.90% | -1.60 | | | 29.00% | 零月-当月 | -4 ...

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现信 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某美 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | 188 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 68 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | 168 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3060 | 3069 | -d | 210 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3093 | 3103 | -10 | 177 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3082 | 3085 | -3 | 188 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 0 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3170 | 3190 | -20 | -70 | | | 热卷现货 (华南) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | 1 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 张晓珍 70003135 | 品种 | 12月12日 | 12月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6476 | 6534 | -58 | -0.89% | 元/吨 | | L2605 收盘价 | 6486 | 6558 | -72 | -1.10% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6129 | 6177 | -48 | -0.78% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6168 | 6241 | -73 | -1.17% | | | L15价差 | -10 | -24 | 14 | 58.33% | | | PP15价差 | -39 | -64 | 25 | 39.06% | | | LP01价差 | 347 | 357 | -10 | -2.80% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6080 | 6100 | -20 | -0.33% | | | 华北LDPE现货价格 | 6440 | 650 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The high copper price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. Despite concerns about tight supply at the mine end, high prices suppress terminal demand. The price is expected to have limited downside but may experience short - term volatility [1]. Zinc - As domestic zinc mines enter the production - reduction season, the supply of zinc ingots may tighten. Refined zinc exports boost the domestic price, and the short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price [5]. Nickel - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - driven force is limited. The fundamental pressure leads to a weakening of the nickel price, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a game of weak supply and demand. Although the macro - expectation improves slightly and there is cost support, the off - season demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate and adjust [9]. Tin - The tin market has strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a strong trend this year [11]. Aluminum - The alumina market has a structural surplus, and the price is under pressure. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high costs and weakening demand. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [13]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to remain weakly balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the possibility of rising or falling depending on production changes [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has weak demand and oversupply. The price may be strong under the influence of production - reduction news, and the futures price may remain high - level volatile [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of strong supply and demand. The price may fluctuate due to news interference, and the short - term trend is expected to be strongly volatile [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.00% to 93222 yuan/ton, and the premium changed from 5 to - 20 yuan/ton. The price of other copper products also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In November, the electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons, and the import volume in October decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.55% to 23700 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 320.15 yuan/ton to - 4588 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread increasing by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the import volume in October decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.55% to 118200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 to - 186 dollars/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 40 to - 150 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% to 33345 tons, and the import volume decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons [6]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged at 12800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 13.83% to 405 yuan/ton [9]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 5 to - 120 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 3.09% to 329900 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 200% to - 50 yuan/ton [11]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread increasing by 1610 to - 280 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the tin ore import increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, and the SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons [11]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.73% to 22050 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in different regions decreased [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the AL 2512 - 2601 spread remaining unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In November, the alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.69% to 21750 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum changed [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 15 to - 40 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons, and the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [13]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [15]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 30 to - 50 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [15]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/kg, and the basis decreased by 41.13% to - 4890 yuan [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the main contract price increasing by 2.56% to 57190 yuan [16]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1.07% to 94500 yuan/ton, and the lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 0.83% to 1220 dollars/ton [17]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 200 to - 380 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95350 tons, and the demand increased by 5.11% to 133451 tons [17].

异动点评：白银持续创新高海外市场情绪高涨 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 行情导读：隔夜，美联储降息叠加启动 RMP 债券购买的偏鸽派行动对市场影响持续发酵叠加 COMEX 白 银交割月行情的演绎，海外市场情绪高涨的带动内外盘白银价格继续摸高，12 月 12 日早盘，沪金主 力合约 AG2602 涨幅超 2%，价格持续上涨带来波动率的走强，白银 VIX 波动率指数维持在 40%的高位。 数据来源：文华财经 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） 今年 COMEX 白银市场出现大规模的实物交割需求越超往年的情况，合约在交割月的首周后仍有较 多未了结的头寸，而当前伦敦白银拆借和租赁利率再度抬头升至 7%以上为 10 月末以来的高位，空头 获得实物的成本增加，进一步表明履约的困难。这也成为多头持续看好银价上涨的理由，由于市场规 模相对更小，在大国博弈和逆全球化背景下，随着包括白银等金属矿产被美国政府发列入《2025 版关 键矿产清单》，未来可能有更多实物库存政府或机构锁定，当白银进入交割月容易发生供需错配。20 ...