投资咨询业务资格: 班监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月6日 | | 不锈钢 | SS2507 | 盘面维持震荡,成本支撑供需矛盾仍存 | 主力参考12600-13200 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锡 | SN2507 | 供给恢复进度偏缓,以及宏观情绪回暖,锡价延续反弹 | 待情绪企稳后高空思路为主 | | | 原油 | SC2508 | 中美元首对话缓和市场担忧情绪,盘面短期无强趋势引导震荡 概率较大 | 中长期仍建议波段思路,震荡行情建议观望为主。 WTI上方压力给到[64,66],布伦特上端压力在 [67,69], SC压力位在 [475,485] | | | 尿素 | UR2509 | 短期上游继续累库,出口规模暂时难以上量对盘面支撑有限 | 中长期波段思路,短期仍在磨底,单边观望等待反 弹机会。主力合约波动调整到[1740,1850]附 | | | | | | 近,仅供参考 PX短期在6500-6900区间运行,高空对待: | | | PX | PX2509 | 供需边际转弱,价格承压,但现货偏紧格局下价格仍存支撑 | PX9-1关注反套 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年6月6日 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。清仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 免责声明 体报中的谎息的软乐评谈下载我摸情报片员儿为可能的是公开资料，回广场增的过些信息的非的生活带他不用手用压。本报后反映得到《思想不得意…《探疑分析方法，并不错成"就能够感影像和《鸿过士》。在日何从下，报告内容仅你参考，新年夜间 度西斯表达的舰队的不停的威尼斯坦奥尔里尔里尔斯，他没希腊优投资，风险军组。本报告演在发出维厂发射影院在客户又更也专业人士，成风见广发的影所有，未经厂发剧领先两领队，任何人不停的本版运行任何形成的发布，衰退，如何乐、和文、船耳用出处力 "广发期货"。 | 硅铁 (SF509) | | 7.35% 93.60% 5196 382 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5578 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅罐(SM509) | | 5482 188 3.43% 55.80% 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5670 | | ୧୧ | | 70 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there may be differences in the futures market supported by the delivery cost logic. Overall, the demand for logs has entered the traditional off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to decline further. Meanwhile, due to the low ex - works prices in May, traders had a high willingness to take delivery, and it is expected that there will still be pressure on arrivals in June. The spot market is stable with a weakening trend, and the fundamental situation remains in a weak balance. Currently, the futures price is close to the phased bottom. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for single - side trading. The main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, and investors can pay attention to the changes in the inter - month spread and participate in reverse spreads [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on June 6 compared to June 4, with declines of 1.58%, 1.29%, and 1.08% respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of each contract also changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost decreased slightly, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar also decreased slightly [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port shipping volume in April increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of major log ports in China decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters from May 23 to May 30, a decline of 0.58%. Inventory in Shandong decreased by 2.5 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.30%, while inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3.23% [2][3] Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China increased slightly by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. In Shandong, it increased by 0.11 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a decline of 3% [3]

Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

V期现日报 投资次输业务资格·证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月6日 林嘉施 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13100 | -50 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 304/2B (佛山宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13050 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 期现价差 | 530 | 550 | -20 | -3.64% | 元/吨 | | 原料价格 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价 | ਦਰੇ | ਦੌਰੇ | O | 0.00% | 美元/湿吨 | | 南非40-42%铬精矿均价 | 60 | ୧୦ | - J | -0.83% | 元/吨度 | | 8-12%高镍生铁出厂均价 | 957 | વેરૂદ | 1 | 0.05% | 元/镍点 | | 内 ...

1.基差=CTD净价（中债估值）-期货结算价（主力合约）*转换因子 7 2.上市以来百分位数：基差部分指IRR自期货合约上市以来最新值的百分位数，其余均为价差最新值的百分位数 3.价差依据期货主力合约收盘价计算得出 | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | Z0016628 2025年6月6日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | | | 价差 较前一日变化 历史1年分位数 | 品种 | 最新值 | | | 全历史分位数 | | F期现价差 | | -25.56 | 0.79 | 23.70% | 16.60% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -18.13 | -0.90 | 16.30% | 10.00% | | IC期现价差 | | -46.37 | 3.84 | 21.70% | 23.10% | | IM期现价差 | | -65.41 | 3.76 | 80.00% | 16.30% | | 次月-当月 | | -38.80 | 0.40 | 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: MPOA data shows lower-than-expected production growth, supporting the market. Short-term, crude palm oil futures are expected to oscillate between 3900 - 3950 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures between 8000 - 8100, maintaining a near-strong and far-weak trend [1]. - Soybean oil: Before the USDA report, CBOT soybean oil adjusts with a narrow range. If there is no positive impact, it may decline due to future supply and biodiesel policy concerns. Domestically, the soybean oil fundamentals are deteriorating [1]. Meal Products - Two meals are expected to maintain an oscillating structure. The US soybean does not have a unilateral upward trend, and the soybean meal主力 is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3000 [2]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market maintains a narrow - range oscillation. In the long - term, supply tightness and increased demand support the price, but short - term wheat listing limits the upward space [3]. Live Pigs - The live pig spot price is oscillating weakly. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and the market is under pressure, but there is no basis for a sharp decline [6]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming looser, pressuring raw sugar. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening pattern, but the current limited entry of raw sugar into the domestic market still supports the price [9][10]. Cotton - Affected by Sino - US communication, the macro sentiment has improved, and the overnight cotton price has rebounded. The downstream industry is weak, but the strong basis and concerns about inventory still support the cotton price [11]. Eggs - In June, the egg supply pressure increases, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The egg price is expected to have no strength to rebound or continue to decline [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Prices**: Soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu dropped from 8030 to 8050, a decrease of 0.25%; palm oil spot price in Guangdong dropped from 8530 to 8600, a decrease of 0.81%; rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9320 [1]. - **Spreads**: Most spreads showed fluctuations, such as the soybean - palm oil spot spread increasing by 9.09% [1]. Meal Products - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price remained at 2900; Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price rose from 2450 to 2460, an increase of 0.41% [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 9.48% [2]. Corn - **Prices**: Corn 2507 Jinzhou Port FOB price rose by 0.09%; corn starch 2507 dropped by 0.11% [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn 7 - 9 spread dropped by 17.39%; starch - corn spread dropped by 1.51% [3]. Live Pigs - **Prices**: The live pig 2507 contract dropped by 0.23%; the spot price in Henan dropped from 14230 to 14130 [6]. - **Indicators**: The self - breeding profit per week dropped by 26.05%, and the purchased - piglet breeding profit dropped by 425.34% [6]. Sugar - **Prices**: Sugar 2601 dropped by 0.44%; ICE raw sugar主力 dropped by 0.78% [9]. - **Industry Indicators**: National sugar production increased by 11.63%, and the national sales volume increased by 26.07% [9]. Cotton - **Prices**: Cotton 2509 dropped by 0.15%; Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B remained unchanged at 14431 [11]. - **Industry Indicators**: Commercial inventory decreased by 7.7%, and the textile yarn, fabric and product export volume increased by 4.4% [11]. Eggs - **Prices**: Egg 09 contract dropped by 0.40%; egg - laying chick price dropped by 1.20% [13]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 7 spread of eggs dropped by 1.88% [13].

型期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月6日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 6月5日 | 6月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2501 收盘价 | 2319 | 2330 | -11 | -0.47% | | | 主力 MA2505 收盘价 | 2263 | 2330 | -67 | -2.88% | | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2259 | 2270 | -11 | -0.48% | | | MA2505-2509价差 | 4 | 60 | -56 | -93.33% | | | MA2501-2505价差 | 56 | 0 | 56 | #DIV/0i | | | 太仓基差: 现货-MA2509 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 76.36% | TT./048 | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1893 | 1875 | 18 | 0.93% | | | 河南浩阳现货 | 2065 | 2068 | -3 | -0.12% | | | 港口太仓现货 | ...

电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 国信多空头增仓超千手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 国君多空头增仓近千手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓上升 | 国君多空头增仓 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君多空头均增仓超 2000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 448.0 557.0 1,923.0 5,262.0 1,966.0 2,545.0 5,357.0 14,003.0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所率达的意见歼不勾成所法品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者提比 投资，风险自担，本报告旨在发送给广发明始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归厂发期货所有，未经广发期货市面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式较发布、复制 。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月5日 | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3110 | 3090 | 20 | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3150 | 20 | 200 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) ...