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《金融》日报-20251201
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals futures and spot prices, and container shipping industry indices. These data provide insights into market trends and price movements of different financial instruments. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures spread was -20.86, the IC spot - futures spread was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures spread was 73.41. There were also various inter - period spreads and cross - product ratios presented, such as the IC/IF ratio at 1.5478 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the IRR of some bonds had certain changes. For example, the TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also inter - period spreads and cross - product spreads among different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, domestic futures prices of precious metals like AU2602 increased by 0.71% to 953.92 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose by 1.61% to 12727 yuan/kilogram. In the foreign market, COMEX gold increased by 1.44% to 4256.40 dollars/ounce. There were also data on spot prices, basis, and price ratios [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Movements**: As of November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% to 1639.37 points, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54% to 1107.85 points. There were also data on shipping rates, futures prices, and fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply and port - related indicators [5].
《农产品》日报-20251201
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:26
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: 11月1 - 25日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增加5.49%,基本面偏空,毛棕油期货或再次承压回落调整,连棕油期货有向下破位下跌风险,需关注能否有效站稳8600点 [1] - Soybean oil:市场对中国年内采购850万吨大豆存疑,美豆缺乏竞争力,巴西大豆预计创纪录,CBOT大豆承压,国内豆油供应充足但需求有限,1月合约上方压力强抑制涨幅,国际油脂有上涨动力,预计CBOT豆油开盘补涨影响国内市场,短期内现货基差报价波动不大 [1] Sugar - 巴西中南部本榨季截至10月底累计产糖量突破3800万吨,预计产量4010 - 4080万吨,含水乙醇折糖价在16美分/磅以上,低制糖比有望保持,原糖缺乏新利空题材,价格巩固筑底,预计短期内坚挺,广西新糖上市带动云南糖价下跌,但加工糖、甜菜糖价格坚挺给予支撑,郑糖预计底部震荡 [3][4] Cotton - 国际上10月USDA出口销售平稳,中国买家采购量不大,美棉收割近8成且新花质量上升,国内郑棉上行面临套保压力但不集中,需求端纺企采购现货冷清但预售缓解供应压力,现货基差坚挺,下方支撑强,短期棉价或稳中略偏强区间震荡 [7] Eggs - 新开产蛋鸡数量低,老母鸡出栏量增加,在产蛋鸡存栏量回落,产能收缩,存储天气适宜使各环节持货能力增强,市场供应压力改善,“双12”临近,电商和商超促销预计刺激终端消费,食品企业有抄底备货意愿,下周市场需求或小幅好转,蛋价降至低位,下游补货,价格有小幅反弹可能 [9] Meal - 中国对美豆征收13%关税不利于美豆出口,巴西大豆销售影响美豆情绪,1 - 2月中国尚有800万吨左右采购缺口,国内豆粕宽松格局延续,一口价随盘上涨,基差回落,下游补库谨慎,行情难持续上涨,关注采购动向和国储拍卖情况,豆粕维持震荡,短期追高有回落风险 [12] Pigs - 市场供应加速,出栏顺畅,西南腌腊开启但需求支撑有限,大猪价格疲软,现货表现差,猪价预计震荡偏弱,关注年底压力释放节奏,10月能繁母猪存栏下滑至3990万头,盘面产能去化逻辑仍在交易,月间反套可继续持有,各合约有企稳反弹迹象但受现货短期压制,关注持续性 [15] Corn - 东北地区农户惜售,港口低库存补货及收储支撑价格坚挺,华北地区售粮随价格调整,受优质粮紧缺和外运受阻价格震荡但波动有限,玉米阶段性供应偏紧但售粮进度慢,约7成粮待售,年前有卖压,需求端贸易商建库谨慎,深加工企业有补货需求,饲料企业随用随采,长期建库积极性不佳,短期供需错配使盘面坚挺,但供应压力未释放价格冲高受限,关注上量节奏,若卖压出现价格或承压 [18] Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Futures and Spot Prices: 11月27日江苏一级豆油现价8460元/吨,较26日跌100元/吨,跌幅1.18%;Y2601期价8150元/吨,跌74元/吨,跌幅0.91%;基差310,跌26,跌幅8.39%;仓单14532,较26日减少7497,跌幅34.03% [1] - Palm Oil: 11月27日广东24度棕榈油现价8390元/吨,较26日涨100元/吨,涨幅1.21%;P2601期价8528元/吨,涨88元/吨,涨幅1.04%;基差 - 138,涨12,涨幅8.00%;广州港1月盘面进口成本8995元/吨,涨20元/吨,涨幅0.22%;盘面进口利润 - 467元/吨,涨68元/吨,涨幅12.72%;仓单380,无变化 [1] - Rapeseed Oil: 11月27日江苏三级菜籽油价10110元/吨,无变化;OI601期价9772元/吨,跌47元/吨,跌幅0.48%;基差338,涨47,涨幅16.15%;仓单3965,无变化 [1] - Spreads: 11月27日豆油01 - 05跨期价差222,较26日涨22,涨幅11.00%;棕榈油01 - 05跨期价差 - 62,跌4,跌幅6.90%;菜籽油01 - 05跨期价差233,跌46,跌幅16.49%;现货豆棕价差170,无变化;2601豆棕价差 - 588,跌40,跌幅7.30%;现货菜豆油价差1550,跌100,跌幅6.06%;2601菜豆油价差1548,跌121,跌幅7.25% [1] Sugar - Futures Market: 白糖2601现值5400元/吨,较前值跌3元/吨,跌幅0.06%;白糖2605现值5327元/吨,涨2元/吨,涨幅0.04%;ICE原糖主力15.21美分/磅,涨0.09美分/磅,涨幅0.60%;白糖1 - 5价差73元/吨,跌5元/吨,跌幅6.41%;主力合约持仓量361517,较前值减少15812,跌幅4.14%;仓单数量0,较前值减少75,跌幅100.00%;有效预报183,无变化 [3] - Spot Market: 南宁现货价5450元/吨,无变化;昆明5440元/吨,无变化;南宁基差123元/吨,较前值跌2元/吨,跌幅1.60%;昆明基差113元/吨,跌2元/吨,跌幅1.74%;进口巴西(配额内)糖4157元/吨,较前值涨43元/吨,涨幅1.05%;进口巴西(配额外)糖5271元/吨,涨57元/吨,涨幅1.09%;进口巴西(配额内)与南宁价差 - 1293元/吨,涨43元/吨,涨幅3.22%;进口巴西(配额外)与南宁价差 - 179元/吨,涨57元/吨,涨幅24.15% [3] - Industry Situation: 全国食糖产量累计值1116.21万吨,较前值增加119.89万吨,涨幅12.03%;销量累计值1048.00万吨,增加88.00万吨,涨幅9.17%;广西食糖产量累计值646.50万吨,增加28.36万吨,涨幅4.59%;广西食糖销量当月值26.66万吨,较前值减少18.68万吨,跌幅41.20%;全国销糖率累计93.90%,较前值下降2.51%,跌幅2.60%;广西销糖率累计93.90%,较前值上升4.30%,涨幅4.80%;全国工业库存68.21万吨,较前值减少47.79万吨,跌幅41.20%;广西食糖工业库存44.21万吨,较前值增加17.07万吨,涨幅62.90%;云南食糖工业库存33.65万吨,增加7.07万吨,涨幅26.60%;食糖进口55.00万吨,较前值增加15.00万吨,涨幅37.50% [3] Cotton - Futures Market: 棉花2605现值13685元/吨,较前值涨80元/吨,涨幅0.59%;棉花2601现值13725元/吨,涨82元/吨,涨幅0.62%;ICE美棉主力64.73美分/磅,涨0.12美分/磅,涨幅0.19%;棉花5 - 1价差 - 40元/吨,较前值跌5元/吨,跌幅14.29%;主力合约持仓量545268,较前值增加15194,涨幅2.87%;仓单数量2408,较前值增加26,涨幅1.09%;有效预报1884,较前值增加187,涨幅11.02% [7] - Spot Market: 新疆到厂价(3128B)14723元/吨,较前值涨7元/吨,涨幅0.05%;CC Index(3128B)14896元/吨,涨5元/吨,涨幅0.03%;FC Index(M: 1%)12935元/吨,无变化;3128B - 01合约价差1038元/吨,较前值跌73元/吨,跌幅6.57%;3128B - 05合约价差998元/吨,跌78元/吨,跌幅7.25%;CC Index(3128B) - FC Index(M: 1%)价差1961元/吨,涨5元/吨,涨幅0.26% [7] - Industry Situation: 商业库存363.97万吨,较前值增加70.91万吨,涨幅24.2%;工业库存93.14万吨,增加4.32万吨,涨幅4.9%;进口量9.00万吨,较前值减少1.00万吨,跌幅10.0%;保税区库存32.80万吨,增加1.70万吨,涨幅5.5%;纺织业存货同比0.10,较前值下降0.20,跌幅66.7%;纱线库存天数26.35天,较前值增加0.23天,涨幅0.9%;坯布库存天数31.12天,较前值减少0.85天,跌幅2.7%;棉花出疆发运量53.46万吨,较前值增加9.86万吨,涨幅22.6%;纺企C32s即期加工利润 - 1645.60元/吨,较前值增加74.50元/吨,涨幅4.3%;服装鞋帽针纺织品类零售额1470.80亿元,较前值增加240.30亿元,涨幅19.5%;服装鞋帽针纺织品类当月同比6.30%,较前值上升1.60%,涨幅34.0%;纺织纱线、织物及制品出口额112.58亿美元,较前值减少7.08亿美元,跌幅5.9%;纺织纱线、织物及制品出口当月同比 - 9.10%,较前值下降15.51%,跌幅242.1%;服装及衣着附件出口额110.03亿美元,较前值减少14.50亿美元,跌幅11.6%;服装及衣着附件出口同比 - 15.96%,较前值下降7.99%,跌幅100.2% [7] Eggs - Futures Market: 鸡蛋01合约现值3293元/500KG,较前值涨11元/500KG,涨幅0.34%;鸡蛋02合约现值3073元/500KG,涨17元/500KG,涨幅0.56%;基差 - 314元/500KG,较前值跌11元/500KG,跌幅3.63%;1 - 2价差220元/500KG,跌6元/500KG,跌幅2.65% [9] - Spot Market: 鸡蛋产区价格2.98元/斤,无变化;蛋鸡苗价格2.70元/羽,无变化;淘汰鸡价格3.80元/斤,较前值跌0.08元/斤,跌幅2.06%;蛋料比2.32,较前值下降0.08,跌幅3.33%;养殖利润 - 27.35元/羽,较前值减少4.29元/羽,跌幅18.60% [9] Meal - Soybean Meal: 江苏豆粕现价3030元/吨,无变化;M2601期价3044元/吨,较前值跌11元/吨,跌幅0.36%;基差 - 14,较前值涨11,涨幅44.00%;江苏现货基差报价m2601 - 50,较前值降1;巴西2月船期盘面进口榨利14,较前值增加9,涨幅180.0%;仓单0,较前值减少22592,跌幅100.0% [12] - Rapeseed Meal: 江苏菜粕现价2460元/吨,较前值跌10元/吨,跌幅0.40%;RM2601期价2452元/吨,跌17元/吨,跌幅0.69%;基差8,较前值涨7,涨幅700.00%;加拿大1月船期盘面进口榨利690,较前值减少68,跌幅8.97%;仓单0,无变化 [12] - Soybean: 哈尔滨大豆现价3940元/吨,无变化;豆一主力合约期价4108元/吨,较前值涨2元/吨,涨幅0.05%;基差 - 168,较前值跌2,跌幅1.20%;江苏进口大豆现价3950元/吨,无变化;豆二主力合约期价3760元/吨,较前值跌7元/吨,跌幅0.19%;基差190,较前值涨7,涨幅3.83%;仓单15645,无变化 [12] - Spreads: 豆粕01 - 05跨期价差100,较前值跌18,跌幅8.29%;菜粕01 - 05跨期价差37,较前值跌18,跌幅32.73%;现货油粕比2.83,无变化;主力合约油粕比2.71,较前值涨0.016,涨幅0.61%;豆菜粕价差(现货)570,较前值涨10,涨幅1.79%;豆菜粕价差(2601)592,较前值涨6,涨幅1.02% [12] Pigs - Futures Market: 主力合约基差 - 115,较前值涨120,涨幅51.06%;生猪2605现值11935元/吨,较前值跌55元/吨,跌幅0.46%;生猪2601现值11465元/吨,跌120元/吨,跌幅1.04%;生猪1 - 5价差 - 470,较前值跌65,跌幅16.05%;主力合约持仓107542,较前值减少9780,跌幅8.34%;仓单数据无效 [15] - Spot Market: 河南现货价11350元/吨,无变化;山东11350元/吨,较前值涨50元/吨;某地区(未明确)11300元/吨,较前值跌100元/吨;辽宁11200元/吨,涨50元/吨;广东11410元/吨,较前值跌200元/吨;湖南10910元/吨,跌50元/吨;河北11400元/吨,较前值跌150元/吨 [15] - Spot Indicators: 样本点屠宰量 - 日207425,较前值增加598,涨幅0.29%;白条价格 - 周18.28元/公斤,无变化;仔猪
广发期货原木期货日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 08:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The 01 contract is weak in the real - world scenario, with low willingness to take delivery. The futures market is expected to trend weakly. The spot price decreased last week, and the supply - side arrival volume continued to rise, with port inventory higher than the past two years. Although the outbound volume remains resilient, it will face pressure later. The current futures price is relatively low, and cost support limits the downside space [3]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Price**: On November 27, the price of log2601 was 765.0, unchanged from the previous day; log2603 was 774.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%) from the previous day; log2605 was 790.0, down 1.0 (-0.13%) from the previous day. The 01 - 03 spread was -9.5, up 1.5; the 01 - 05 spread was -25.0, up 1.0; the 03 contract basis was -24.5, up 1.5; the 01 contract basis was -15.0, unchanged [2]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various specifications of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on November 27 compared with the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the outer market also remained unchanged from November 21 to November 28 [2]. - **Import Cost**: On November 27, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.074, down 0.003 from the previous day; the import theoretical cost was 806.64 yuan, down 0.39 yuan from the previous day [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: From September 30 to October 31, the port freight volume from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea increased by 24.7 (13.99%) to 201.3 million cubic meters, and the number of departing ships increased by 8.0 (17.39%) to 54.0 [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, the inventory in Tianyuan increased by 8.0 (2.71%) to 303.00; in Shandong, it increased by 11.1 (5.68%) to 206.50; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.5 (-0.57%) to 83.18. The total inventory in major ports increased compared with the previous week [2][3]. Demand - As of November 21, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 0.12 (-2%) to 6.44 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it decreased by 0.08 (-2%) to 3.59; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.08 (-3%) to 2.36 [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival Ships - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 6, a decrease of 7 (54%) from the previous week, and the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20.1 million cubic meters (48%) from the previous week [3].
广发期货《金融》日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - The report presents comprehensive data on stock index futures spreads, bond futures basis and spreads, and container shipping industry spot - futures information. It includes current values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile rankings, enabling investors to understand market trends and price relationships in different financial sectors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads (Doc 1) - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: F期现价差 is - 22.80 with a 1 - year historical percentile of 40.50%, H期现价差 is - 2.67 (27.00%), IC期现价差 is - 55.08 (41.30%), and IM期现价差 is - 78.45 (65.00%) [1] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For example, F跨期价差 in the 次月 - 当月 is - 15.60 (27.40%), and in the 远月 - 当月 is - 77.80 (29.50%) [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: 中证500/沪深300 is 2.3387 (75.00%), IC/IF is 1.5350 (72.90%), etc [1] Bond Futures (Doc 2) - **Basis**: On November 27, 2025, TS基差 is 1.6325 (- 0.0029, 28.60%), TF基差 is 1.6069 (- 0.0583, 43.10%), T基差 is 1.6707 (- 0.0653, 57.90%), and TL基差 is 1.7589 (- 0.2304, 65.20%) [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For TS跨期代套, the 标签 - 标示 is - 0.0260 (- 0.0360, 17.70%); for TF跨期价差, the 류출 is - 0.1150 (- 0.0150, 20.10%); for T跨期价差, the 류출 - 발굴 is 0.1400 (- 0.0150, 28.60%); for TL跨期价差, the 下李 - 隔季 is - 0.1700 (0.0400) [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: On November 27, 2025, TS - TF is - 3.3800 (- 0.0150, 11.90%), TS - T is - 5.5050 (- 0.0250, 16.00%), TF - T is - 2.1250 (- 0.0100, 17.40%) [2] Container Shipping Industry (Doc 3) - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) on November 24 is 1639.37, up 20.75% from November 17; SCFIS (US West route) on November 24 is 1107.85, down 10.54% from November 17 [3] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rates**: SCFI综合指数 on November 21 is 1451.38, down 2.92% from November 14; SCFI (Europe) is 1367, down 3.53%; SCFI (US West) is 1645, down 9.76%; SCFI (US East) is 2384, down 8.31% [3] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 (主力) on November 27 is 1387.7, up 0.02% from November 26; the 基差(主力) is 328.6, up 29.73% from November 26 [3] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply on November 27 is 3349.31 million TEU, up 0.01% from November 26; Shanghai port on - time rate in November is 49.08%, up 14.75% from October; monthly export amount in November is 3053.53 billion US dollars, down 7.03% from October [3]
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:49
Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View This week, the molten iron production decreased seasonally while the apparent demand was decent, reaching 888 million tons. Under the background of production cuts and inventory reduction, the contradictions in the steel market were not significant. The decline in molten iron production suppressed the price of iron ore. Although the supply - demand contradictions in the steel market were not prominent, iron ore and coking coal fluctuated weakly. It is expected that steel prices will experience a central decline within a range, with rebar referring to the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil referring to the 3250 - 3400 range. The unilateral driving force is not obvious. Attention can be paid to the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation of the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread of the January contract [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and contracts mostly declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of most steel products decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons, a decline of 0.9%, while the electric - furnace rebar production increased by 2.6 tons, an increase of 9.5% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. The rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 4.0% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 9.3, a decline of 0.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Yesterday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin continued to decline, the molten iron volume decreased, and the steel mill restocking demand increased. The inventory of ports increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, the molten iron volume decreased this week, and the steel mill inventory contradiction improved significantly. With the current steel mill profit margin and inventory accumulation level, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - driving factors, it is expected that iron ore will be difficult to have an independent unilateral market. In the short term, it will operate weakly under the condition of futures discount repair and the latest decline in molten iron [5]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties increased slightly, such as the PB powder's spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.0 to 26.5, an increase of 12.8% [5]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decline of 6.8% [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 1.7 tons to 331.6 tons, an increase of 0.5% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Yesterday, the coke futures fluctuated and declined, and the night - session continued to be weak. The port trade quotation declined, and after the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented, there was an expectation of price reduction. The coking coal futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and the spot price weakened, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. For coke, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market with a reference range of 1500 - 1650 and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage. For coking coal, the market supply has become looser, and it is also recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market with a reference range of 1000 - 1120 and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures and some spot varieties decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract price decreased by 12 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The coking profit increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton [8]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures and some spot varieties also decreased. The coking coal 01 contract price decreased by 14 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.2%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 587 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. Some coal mines in Shanxi have stopped production, and the imported coking coal from Mongolia has increased significantly in customs clearance since November [8]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, while in some sectors decreased. For example, the fine - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 10.4 tons to 98.0 tons, an increase of 11.9% [8]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap calculation result increased by 1.5 tons to - 43 tons, an increase of 34.2% [8].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:44
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the month - end approaches, the market focuses on export and production data. There is a risk of ending the rebound and falling again. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and break through 8600 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean rises due to China's procurement, and CBOT豆油 may rise to 52 cents. However, domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory may increase, so it has no short - term upward momentum [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply of pigs accelerates, and the demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to be in a weak and volatile structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse spread can be held, and the sustainability of the contract's rebound needs attention [3]. Meal - The domestic soybean meal market remains loose. The one - price rises with the market, and the basis drops slightly. The market is unlikely to have a continuous upward trend and may fall after a short - term rise [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Due to factors such as logistics in the Northeast and demand in North China, the price of corn at the grass - roots level remains firm. However, there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, so the upward space is limited [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The new sugar in Guangxi is on the market, and the market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern at the bottom this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. US cotton export sales data shows a decline. Domestically, Zheng cotton faces hedging pressure, but the basis is firm and demand has resilience, so the cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short term [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and the decline space is limited. The market is clearing inventory, demand is recovering, and egg futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On November 27, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8560 yuan, up 1.18%; the futures price of Y2601 was 8224 yuan, up 0.91%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8558 yuan, up 1.04%. The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10110 yuan, unchanged [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was 222, up 11.00%; the palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was - 62, down 6.90%; the rapeseed oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was 233, down 16.49% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%. The price of LH2605 was 11990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan was 11360 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 206827, up 0.47%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.28 yuan/kg, down 0.76% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3030 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3055 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, up 1.23%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2469 yuan, up 1.23% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2243 yuan, up 0.36%. The import profit was 419 yuan, up 0.93%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 721, down 32.43% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2572 yuan, up 0.82%. The basis was 18 yuan, down 53.85% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 was 5403 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The price of SR2605 was 5322 yuan, up 0.30%. ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% to 15.12 cents/pound [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 125 yuan, down 11.35% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production cumulative value was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The national sugar sales cumulative value was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 was 13605 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The price of CF2601 was 13640 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 64.61 cents/pound [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14700 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The CC Index of 3128B was 14891 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 363.97 million tons, up 24.2%. The industrial inventory was 93.14 million tons, up 4.9% [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of JD12 was 2947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%. The price of JD01 was 3282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.98 yuan/jin, up 1.20%. The basis was - 303 yuan/500KG, down 7.71% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - chicken chick price was 2.80 yuan/feather, down 3.57%. The culled - chicken price was 3.88 yuan/jin, down 3.96% [15].
广发期货《有色》日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:42
锡产业期现日报 テ 广发期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月28日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 涨跌幅 单位 现值 前值 涨跌 301800 295200 eeoo 2.24% 250 250 0 0.00% 元/吨 302300 295700 6600 2.23% 185.00 135.00 50.00 37.04% 美元/吨 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 -7.90% -17717.50 -16419.72 -1297.78 元/吨 7.85 7.89 - - 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 -740 -650 -90 -13.85% -360 -480 120 25.00% 元/吨 -90 -120 30 25.00% 370 -30 400 1333.33% 基本面数据(月度) | 指标 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10月锡矿进口 | 11632 | 8714 | 2918 | 33.49% | 世 | | SMM精锡10月产量 | 16090 | 1051 ...
全品种价差日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest data on futures and spot prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles for various commodities including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals on November 28, 2025 [1] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5478, futures price is 5390, basis is 88, basis rate is 2.56%, and historical quantile is 52.20% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 5626, other data not fully presented [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price is 3240, futures price is 3093, basis is 147, basis rate is 4.75%, and historical quantile is 62.00% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3293, futures price is 3290, basis is - 3, basis rate is - 0.09%, and historical quantile is 17.00% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price (converted price of 62.5% BRBF) is 860, futures price is 800, basis is 60, basis rate is 7.56%, and historical quantile is 48.30% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Data on spot price (converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke) and other details are presented, but not all data is complete [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price (converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal) is 1195, futures price is 1071, basis is 124, basis rate is 11.58%, and historical quantile is 58.70% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2601)**: Spot price is 87085, futures price is 86990, basis is 95, basis rate is 0.11%, and historical quantile is 59.16% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: Spot price is 21500, futures price is 21460, basis is - 40, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 43.54% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 2832, futures price is 2724, basis is 108, basis rate is 3.96%, and historical quantile is 57.04% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2601)**: Spot price is 22415, futures price is 22380, basis is 35, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 55.00% [1] - **Tin (SN2601)**: Spot price is 302200, futures price is 301800, basis is 400, basis rate is 0.13%, and historical quantile is 36.66% [1] - **Nickel (NI2601)**: Spot price is 117050, futures price is 116900, basis is 150, basis rate is 0.13%, and historical quantile is 62.91% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2601)**: Spot price is 12870, futures price is 12410, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.71%, and historical quantile is 83.90% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Spot price is 947.2, futures price is 943.1, basis is - 4.0, basis rate is - 0.43%, and historical quantile is 12.20% [1] - **Silver (AG2602)**: Spot price is 12545.0, futures price is 12525.0, basis is 20.0, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 98.30% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price is 3055.0, futures price is 2990, basis is - 65.0, basis rate is - 2.3%, and historical quantile is 27.40% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price is 8410, futures price is 8224.0, basis is 186.0, basis rate is 2.26%, and historical quantile is 38.00% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price is 8528.0, futures price is 8460, basis is - 68.0, basis rate is - 0.80%, and historical quantile is 10.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price is 2570, futures price is 2469.0, basis is 101.0, basis rate is 4.09%, and historical quantile is 64.80% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: Spot price is 10070, futures price is 9772.0, basis is 298.0, basis rate is 3.05%, and historical quantile is 80.60% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Spot price is 2290, futures price is 2243.0, basis is 47.0, basis rate is 2.10%, and historical quantile is 65.50% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Spot price is 2600, futures price is 2572.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 1.09%, and historical quantile is 17.50% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: Spot price is 11585.0, futures price is 11400, basis is - 185.0, basis rate is - 1.60%, and historical quantile is 38.40% [1] - **Eggs (JD2601)**: Spot price is 3282.0, futures price is 2890, basis is - 392.0, basis rate is - 11.94%, and historical quantile is 13.00% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price is 14700, futures price is 13640.0, basis is 1060.0, basis rate is 7.77%, and historical quantile is 1.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price is 5615, futures price is 5403.0, basis is 212.0, basis rate is 3.92%, and historical quantile is 36.40% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price is 9529.0, futures price is 9000, basis is - 529.0, basis rate is - 5.95%, and historical quantile is 5.90% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 9150.0, futures price is 8700, basis is - 450.0, basis rate is - 4.92%, and historical quantile is 72.20% [1] Energy Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Spot price is 6741.0, futures price is 6718.0, basis is 23.0, basis rate is 0.34%, and historical quantile is 30.80% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price is 4632.0, futures price is 4600.0, basis is - 32.0, basis rate is - 0.69%, and historical quantile is 44.50% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price is 3880.0, futures price is 3873.0, basis is 7.0, basis rate is 0.18%, and historical quantile is 61.60% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: Spot price is 6280.0, futures price is 6162.0, basis is 118.0, basis rate is 1.91%, and historical quantile is 71.80% [1] - **Styrene (EB2601)**: Spot price is 6585.0, futures price is 6520.0, basis is 65.0, basis rate is 1.00%, and historical quantile is 43.60% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price is 2114.0, futures price is 2105.0, basis is - 9.0, basis rate is - 0.43%, and historical quantile is 32.10% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price is 1668.0, futures price is 1650.0, basis is 18.0, basis rate is - 1.08%, and historical quantile is 10.90% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price is 6810.0, futures price is 6699.0, basis is 111.0, basis rate is 1.65%, and historical quantile is 56.80% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price is 6450.0, futures price is 6295.0, basis is 155.0, basis rate is 2.46%, and historical quantile is 67.70% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price is 4517.0, futures price is 4450.0, basis is - 67.0, basis rate is - 1.48%, and historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price is 2343.8, futures price is 2238.0, basis is 105.8, basis rate is 4.73%, and historical quantile is 64.40% [1] - **LPG (PG2601)**: Spot price is 4348.0, futures price is 4259.0, basis is 89.0, basis rate is 2.09%, and historical quantile is 36.30% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Spot price is 3010.0, futures price is 3007.0, basis is 3.0, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 53.30% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: Spot price is 10400.0, futures price is 10400.0, basis is 0.0, basis rate is 0.00%, and historical quantile is 28.90% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price is 1041.0, futures price is 988.0, basis is 53.0, basis rate is - 5.36%, and historical quantile is 56.51% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price is 1176.0, futures price is 1146.0, basis is 30.0, basis rate is - 2.62%, and historical quantile is 28.99% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price is 15280.0, futures price is 14800.0, basis is 480.0, basis rate is 3.0%, and historical quantile is 69.59% [1] Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price is 4515.4, futures price is 4492.6, basis is - 22.8, basis rate is - 0.51%, and historical quantile is 20.30% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price is 2972.3, futures price is 2962.4, basis is - 9.9, basis rate is - 0.33%, and historical quantile is 21.50% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price is 6951.3, futures price is 6896.2, basis is - 55.1, basis rate is - 0.80%, and historical quantile is 16.40% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7257.5, futures price is 7179.0, basis is - 78.5, basis rate is - 1.09%, and historical quantile is 24.90% [1] - **2 - year Bond (TS2603)**: Spot price is 102.39, futures price is 100.02, basis is 2.37, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 12.40% [1] - **5 - year Bond (TF2603)**: Spot price is 105.78, futures price is 99.51, basis is 6.27, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 20.60% [1] - **10 - year Bond (T2603)**: Spot price is 107.91, futures price is 100.25, basis is 7.66, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 19.20% [1] - **30 - year Bond (TL2603)**: Spot price is 129.32, futures price is 114.43, basis is 14.89, basis rate is 0.38%, and historical quantile is 65.80% [1]
原木期货日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The 01 contract is weak in the real - world scenario with low willingness to take delivery, and the futures price is expected to be weak. The supply arrival volume is rising, port inventory is higher than in the past two years. Although the outbound volume remains resilient, it will face pressure later. The current futures price is relatively low, and cost support limits the downside space [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 27, the prices of some futures contracts changed slightly: the price of log 2603 decreased by 1.5 to 774.5 with a decline of - 0.19%, and the price of log 2605 decreased by 1.0 to 790.0 with a decline of - 0.13%. The price of log 2601 remained unchanged at 765.0. Spot prices of various pine and spruce in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 27 compared to November 26 [2] - The import cost calculation shows that on November 27, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.074, and the import theoretical cost was 806.64 yuan, with little change compared to the previous day [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, from September 30 to October 31, the port freight volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 24.7 to 201.3 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a rise of 13.99%, and the number of departing ships increased by 8 to 54, a rise of 17.39% [2] Inventory - Weekly inventory data shows that as of November 21, the inventory in Tianyuan increased by 8.0 to 303.00 with a growth rate of 2.71%. In Shandong, it increased by 11.1 to 195.4 (ten thousand/cubic meters), and in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.5 to 83.66 with a decline of - 0.57% [2][3] Demand - As of November 21, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 0.12 to 6.44 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a decline of - 2%. In Shandong, it decreased by 0.08 to 3.59, and in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.08 to 2.36, with a decline of - 3% [2][3] Forecast of Arrival - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China is 6, a decrease of 7 compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume is about 21.7 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a decrease of 20.1 (ten thousand/cubic meters) compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3]
广发期货日评-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Equity Index**: Domestic equity indices are resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. In Q4 2025, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations include periodic corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risks. The technology sector is showing a structural recovery, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term weak market sentiment may continue. Potential factors to break the current range include the implementation of new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the single - side strategy, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract in the cash - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have broken through previous resistance and are expected to rise above $4200. Silver prices may approach the previous high of $54 under the influence of the delivery period. Long positions can be held. For platinum, a low - buying strategy is recommended, or one can buy out - of - the - money call options and try a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [2]. - **Shipping Index**: The EC (European Line) main contract is weakly oscillating, with a short - term weak trend [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel mills are reducing production. A long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar are recommended. Iron ore is oscillating in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is viewed as oscillating downward, with a range of 1010 - 1120, and a 1 - 5 spread arbitrage can be considered. Coke is also expected to oscillate downward after four rounds of price increases, with a range of 1500 - 1650 [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is in a certain price range, and tin prices are strongly oscillating. Specific trading strategies are provided for each metal [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures have their own price trends. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see due to large intraday fluctuations [2]. - **Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trend. For example, PTA is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillation, and short - fiber processing fees are expected to be compressed [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil may test the resistance at 8600, and sugar is in a bottom - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Equity Index**: IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512 are in a narrow - range oscillation. The A - share market is in adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see or lightly sell put options [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: TF2603, TS2603, TI2603 are oscillating downward. Wait and see for single - side strategies and consider positive arbitrage for the 2603 contract [2]. - **Precious Metals**: AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606 have different price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: RB2601, I2601. Steel mills' production cuts lead to a long - steel short - iron ore arbitrage strategy. Iron ore oscillates between 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: JM2601, J2601. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate downward, with specific price ranges and arbitrage suggestions [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper, Aluminum, etc.**: CU2601, AL2601, etc. Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market conditions [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate**: PS2601, LC2605. Polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation, and lithium carbonate has large intraday fluctuations, with a wait - and - see recommendation [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, etc.**: PX2601, TA2601, etc. Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains, Oils, etc.**: M2601, RM601, LH2601, etc. Different agricultural products have different price trends and trading suggestions, such as long - short arbitrage for some products [2].