Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, base metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It offers insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides operation suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share markets had mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The four major index futures contracts declined, and the basis discount was repaired. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and suggest a wait - and - see approach, with a possible light - position short - put option strategy [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures mostly declined. The market sentiment is weak in the short - term, but there may be a rebound if the central bank's bond - buying scale exceeds expectations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the 2603 contract cash - and - carry strategy [5][8]. Precious Metals - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are analyzed. The long - term bull market in precious metals is expected to continue due to factors such as central bank purchases and increased allocation of financial - attribute commodities. Short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by factors like Fed officials' divergence and economic data. Specific strategies are provided for each metal, such as holding silver long - positions and a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [9][11][12]. Commodity Futures Base Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - biased in the short - term, with 12 - month interest rate cut expectations and improving downstream demand. The mid - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports a rising price bottom [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a bottom - range oscillation. The supply shows signs of contraction, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. The price is expected to remain in the 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton range [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, with a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. The overseas supply risk and domestic weak demand are in a stand - off [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The cost is supportive, and the demand shows resilience, but high prices still suppress overall procurement [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the demand shows structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the squeeze risk eases slightly [24][27]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating. The supply is tight, and the demand in the South China region shows resilience [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The low - valuation and production cuts drive a small - scale recovery, but the overall upward drive is limited [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost support weakens, and the supply pressure remains high, with weak demand in the off - season [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market may have increased divergence, with a current situation of strong supply and demand and social inventory reduction [38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The spot price stabilizes, while the silicon wafer and cell prices continue to fall [41][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range. The supply decreases, and the demand is not optimistic, with inventory accumulation pressure [44][45]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price is expected to have a central - downward movement in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - rebar short - iron ore arbitrage [47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to run weakly in the short - term. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is difficult to have an independent unilateral market without new macro - drivers [50][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand for replenishment weakens [53][57]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply increases, the demand weakens, and the inventory is moderately increasing [58][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate. There is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [60][62]. - **Pig**: The supply pressure remains, and it is necessary to pay attention to the logic of production capacity reduction [63].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the end of the month approaches, the market focuses on export and production data, with potential downside risks. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and could break through the 8,600 yuan resistance [1]. - Soybean oil: Chinese purchases of US soybeans boost CBOT soybeans, but domestic supply is ample and demand is weak, with inventory likely to increase and prices unable to rise in the short term [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply is accelerating, and although southwest curing has started, demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, and the strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be continued [3]. Meal Products - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. With the one - price rising with the market and the basis slightly falling, the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market remains firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, limiting price increases. Attention should be paid to the pace of corn supply and market sentiment [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to consolidate around 14 cents per pound. With new sugar from Guangxi on the market, the market is expected to remain weak and bottom - oscillating this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures were closed for the US Thanksgiving holiday. Domestically, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season creates hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient demand support prices, so short - term prices may oscillate within a range [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and with reduced inventory at all levels and recovering demand, futures prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. Key Points by Product Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On November 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,560 yuan, up 1.18% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,224 yuan, up 0.91%; the basis of Y2601 was 336 yuan, up 8.39%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 34.03% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8,558 yuan, up 1.04%; the basis of P2601 was - 138 yuan, up 8.00%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in January increased by 14.08% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of OI601 was 9,772 yuan, down 0.48%; the basis of OI601 was 338 yuan, up 16.15% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%; the price of LH2605 was 11,990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11,585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot**: Prices in various regions showed mixed trends, with slaughter volume increasing by 0.47% daily, and most breeding profits decreasing [3]. Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,030 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,055 yuan, up 1.33%; the basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,470 yuan, up 1.23%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,469 yuan, up 1.23%; the basis of RM2601 was unchanged [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan, up 0.36%; the basis decreased by 14.55%; the import profit increased by 0.93%; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 32.43% [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2,572 yuan, up 0.82%; the basis decreased by 53.85%; the starch - corn 01 spread increased by 4.11% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of SR2601 was 5,403 yuan, up 0.45%; the price of SR2605 was 5,322 yuan, up 0.30%; ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% [11]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 5,450 yuan, unchanged; the basis decreased; the import volume increased by 37.50% [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of CF2605 was 13,605 yuan, up 0.15%; the price of CF2601 was 13,640 yuan, up 0.11%; ICE US cotton rose 0.59% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B grade cotton rose 0.69%; the commercial inventory increased by 24.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of JD12 was 2,947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%; the price of JD01 was 3,282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price rose 1.20%; the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%; the breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - This week, the seasonal decline in hot metal production and stable apparent demand led to a relatively balanced steel market. However, the weak performance of iron ore and coking coal caused steel prices to decline within a certain range. The expected price range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan. There is no obvious unilateral driving force, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage operations of going long on rebar and short on iron ore in the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the January contract [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, iron ore futures fluctuated. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the steel mills' profit margins continued to decline, hot metal production decreased, and the demand for restocking increased. In the inventory aspect, port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventories decreased. Without new macro - driving factors, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coke futures declined with oscillations, and the night session continued to be weak. After the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented, there are expectations of price cuts. The coking industry's profit has been restored, and production has increased. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, hot metal production has declined, and steel prices have fluctuated weakly, so steel mills have the intention to suppress coke prices. Coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend, and the spot market weakened, resulting in a pattern of simultaneous decline in futures and spot. The supply side has some short - term disruptions, and the import volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on both coke and coking coal in a volatile manner, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage for both [8]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan; rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 11 yuan, 11 yuan, and 6 yuan respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in North China and South China decreased by 10 yuan, while the price in East China remained unchanged; hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 14 yuan, 13 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 12 yuan, 2 yuan, and 12 yuan respectively. The profits of rebar in East China and North China decreased by 2 yuan and 12 yuan respectively, while the profit in South China decreased by 2 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 9.3, a decrease of 0.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.2 to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.8 to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.0 to 26.5, an increase of 12.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of PB powder and Jinbuba powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan, while the prices of other varieties remained unchanged. The Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap increased by 0.1 to 104.9 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe increased by 0.8 to 107.4 [5]. Supply - The weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global weekly shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 1.7 tons to 331.6 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [5]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventories increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 20 days [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and coke futures contracts 01 and 05 decreased. The coking industry's profit increased by 11 yuan to - 24 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased by 6 yuan to 587 yuan [8]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.4 tons to 851.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.8 tons to 433.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [8]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills increased [8]. Inventory Changes - Coke total inventories increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. Coking coal inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [8]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.5 tons to - 43 tons, an increase of 34.2% [8].

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Core Data Summary - **Futures-Spot Price Spread**: F futures-spot price spread is -22.80, with a 1.82 change from the previous day, and historical 1-year and all-time percentiles of 40.50% and 20.30% respectively. Other contracts like H, IC, and IM also have corresponding futures-spot price spreads and percentile data [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: Different contracts such as F, H, and K have various inter - delivery spreads between different months (e.g., next month - current month, far month - current month), along with their changes from the previous day and percentile data [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/F, etc., are presented, including their latest values, changes from the previous day, and percentile data [1]. Report on Bond Futures Basis and Spread Daily Core Data Summary - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.6325, with a -0.0595 change from the previous day and a 28.60% percentile since listing. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL bases [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts (TS, TF, T, TL), inter - delivery spreads between different quarters (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different bond futures contracts (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T) are presented, including their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures and Spot Daily Core Data Summary - **Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% from 1357.67 on November 17th to 1639.37 on November 24th, while SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54%. The SCFI composite index decreased by 2.92% [3]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The price of the EC2602 (main contract) increased by 0.02%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.73% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 0.01%. Shanghai port on - time rate increased by 14.75%, and the monthly export amount decreased by 7.03% [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Tin - Consider the strong fundamentals and maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [1][2] Polysilicon - Expect a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation in each link. However, strong spot support will keep prices oscillating in a high - level range. The reverse market structure may continue. Advise cautious trading [4] Industrial Silicon - Anticipate that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at a low level. There will be a decline in both supply and demand in November, with a relatively large supply decline, but there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [6] Zinc - The price is boosted by interest - rate cut expectations. The supply - side pressure is limited, and the demand side shows a structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and attention should be paid to structural risks. The price is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [7] Copper - The probability of a December interest - rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro - level drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 86000 - 88000 yuan/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - The market maintains a situation of both strong supply and demand. The downstream demand is optimistic, and social inventory is decreasing. However, there may be pressure from high hidden inventory of traders. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [11] Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main reference range of 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton [13] Nickel - The macro - level is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. The short - term upward drive is limited, and the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [14] Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern under cost support and demand resilience. The main contract reference range is 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton [15] Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [16] Summaries by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price Changes**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.24% to 301800 yuan/ton, and the price of长江 1 tin increased by 2.23% to 302300 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% to 526 tons [1] - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6229 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7654 tons [2] Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock increased by 0.10% to 52300 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44% to 2.40 million tons, and the monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.69% to 28.10 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 4.17% to 19.50 million tons [4] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon increased by 0.53% to 9550 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 233.33% to - 50 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.95% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% to 55.00 million tons [6] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.22% to 22450 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and refined zinc imports decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 3.01% to 14.81 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1.75% to 5.1 million tons [7] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.50% to 87085 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [8] - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory decreased by 10.80% to 17.35 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 0.43% to 15.72 million tons [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.54% to 93300 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [11] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92260 tons, and lithium carbonate demand increased by 8.70% to 126961 tons [11] - **Inventory Changes**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84234 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 13.50% to 53291 tons [11] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.28% to 21460 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [13] - **Inventory Changes**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 4.03% to 59.60 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.12% to 54.1 million tons [13] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.71% to 119000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 15.74% to - 220 dollars/ton [14] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel production decreased by 4.84% to 110810 yuan/ton, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel production increased by 3.75% to 129484 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35900 tons, and refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39795 tons [14] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21350 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% to 28.60 million tons [15] - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.59% to 5.56 million tons [15] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [16] - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.92% to 50.24 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.77% to 30.25 million tons [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - **Inventory**: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View of the Report The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. With the current apparent demand and production levels, inventory reduction can be sustained, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the current apparent demand is a pulse. The iron water output is -0.6 to 236.3 million tons, and the production is prone to decline and difficult to increase. Based on the upward revision of the apparent demand, under the weekly apparent demand of 8.74 million tons in November, the inventory pressure is not large, and the negative feedback of iron elements is not necessary. However, as the raw materials have not stabilized, the steel price is expected to decline within the range, with the rebar referring to the range of 3,000 - 3,200 and the hot-rolled coil referring to the range of 3,250 - 3,400 [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices in most regions declined, and futures contract prices also showed a downward trend [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged, while the cost of some steel products decreased. The profit of hot-rolled coils in some regions increased, and the profit of rebar in South China increased significantly [1] - **Supply**: The daily average iron water output decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 million tons, and the output of five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The output of rebar increased by 4.0%, with the converter output increasing by 5.4% and the electric furnace output decreasing by 4.6%. The output of hot-rolled coils increased by 0.7% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.0%, the inventory of rebar decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.0% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building material trading volume decreased by 8.0%, and the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 3.9%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 6.7%, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased by 3.5% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View of the Report The iron ore futures showed a relatively strong performance. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased week-on-week last week, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills decreased slightly, the iron water output decreased slightly, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased. It is expected that the iron ore will be difficult to have an independent unilateral market and will run in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see on a unilateral basis [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5.7%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.1% [4] - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly [4] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrivals (weekly) increased by 24.2%, the global shipments (weekly) decreased by 6.8%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.3% [4] - **Demand**: The daily average iron water of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.3%, the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 0.9%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 0.8%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.0% [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 0.3%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.8%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 4.8% [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View of the Report - **Coke**: The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the mainstream coke enterprises are expected to be proposed to reduce the price after the fourth round of price increase is fully implemented. The supply side shows that the coking profit has been repaired, but the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, and the start - up of some enterprises has decreased. The demand side shows that the steel mills' losses increase, the iron water output decreases, and the steel price fluctuates weakly, which has a certain suppression on the coke price. The inventory is slightly reduced, and the coke supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to view the unilateral trend as volatile and bearish, with the range referring to 1,550 - 1,700, and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [7] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed a volatile and weak trend, and the spot market showed signs of loosening. The supply side shows that some coal mines have stopped production for rectification, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The demand side shows that the steel mills' losses increase, the iron water output decreases, the coking start - up decreases slightly, and the restocking demand weakens. The inventory is slightly reduced. It is recommended to view the unilateral trend as volatile and bearish, with the range referring to 1,050 - 1,150, and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties decreased, and the futures contract prices also declined. The basis of some contracts changed [7] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties decreased, and the futures contract prices also showed a downward trend. The basis of some contracts decreased [7] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged. The raw coal output decreased by 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.4% [7] - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3%, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased slightly, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 12.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills remained basically unchanged, the port inventory decreased by 2.9%, and the coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged. The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 11.9%, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.9%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.9%, and the port inventory decreased by 2.3% [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment in Q4, with limited downside risks and a structural recovery in the technology sector. The index has initially stabilized but with shrinking trading volume, so it is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [3]. - The short - term weak market sentiment in the bond market may continue. Potential drivers to break the oscillation include the implementation of new regulations on bond fund redemption fees, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - Gold prices have broken through the previous resistance and are expected to rise further above $4200. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and is relatively strong due to tight inventories. For platinum and palladium futures, on the first trading day, it is advisable to cautiously go long on PT2606 around 405 yuan, with the upper resistance around 425 yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: TMT has a structural recovery, and the index has stabilized with shrinking volume. It is recommended to wait and see and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors have led to a decline in bond futures. The short - term weak sentiment may continue. Wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise further, silver is relatively strong, and for platinum and palladium futures, there are specific trading suggestions [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The short - term trend is weak [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The raw materials are weak, and steel prices maintain an oscillating trend. Close short positions and pay attention to support levels [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It oscillates within the range of 750 - 820 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed as oscillating and bearish, with a range of 1050 - 1150, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Coke**: It is viewed as oscillating and bearish, with a range of 1550 - 1700, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to trade between 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract is expected to run between 2700 - 2850 [3]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 21300 - 21800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract is expected to run between 20500 - 21000 [3]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to trade between 22200 - 22800 [3]. - **Tin**: The previous long positions can be held, and the strategy is to go long on dips [3]. - **Nickel**: The main contract is expected to trade between 116000 - 120000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract is expected to oscillate narrowly between 12300 - 12700 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: It is in a high - level oscillation, with a range of 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton, and cautious trading is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The intraday volatility has increased significantly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Chemical Sector - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [3]. - **PTA**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and the monthly spread can be positively arbitraged at low levels [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand is loose in November, and the processing fee is expected to decline. It is recommended to shrink the processing fee [3]. - **Ethanol**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread can be reverse - arbitraged at high levels [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the rebound is under pressure [3]. - **Styrene**: It may oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [3]. - **LLDPE**: Wait and see due to weak overall trading [3]. - **PP**: There are many unexpected maintenance events, and the downside space is limited. Close short positions [3]. - **Methanol**: The port market is strong, and the MTO spread of the 05 contract is expected to narrow [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to run weakly [3]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and it oscillates at the bottom. The strategy is to short on rebounds [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and hold short positions [3]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair of Hubei production lines has driven a rebound. Close previous short positions and pay attention to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates. Wait and see [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upside is under pressure. The medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and consider the spread of long RU2601 and short BR2601 [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: It oscillates narrowly, waiting for new trading themes [3]. - **Hog**: There is still supply pressure. Hold the inter - month reverse spread [3]. - **Corn**: The spot market shows regional differentiation, and the price has fallen after rising. It oscillates narrowly [3]. - **Oilseeds**: It has rebounded slightly, and pay attention to the risk of subsequent pullbacks. The P main contract may test the support at 8200 in the short - term [3]. - **Sugar**: The prospect of increased production exerts pressure, and it oscillates at the bottom [3]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton export data is positive, and it oscillates with an upward bias [3]. - **Egg**: The capacity reduction is slow, and the supply is still loose. Close previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [3]. - **Apple**: The demand for stored apples is average, and it may run weakly around 9500 in the short - term [3]. - **Jujube**: The prices in the production areas have weakened, and it oscillates at a low level [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic stock index shows strong resilience, with the technology sector experiencing a structural recovery and the index initially stabilizing, but the market volume continues to shrink. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. - Treasury bond futures have significantly declined due to multiple negative factors, and the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe, and pay attention to potential factors that may break the market oscillation [6]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicates an unfavorable outlook for the US economy and employment, leading to a further increase in interest rate cut expectations, which drives precious metals prices higher. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue [7][8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metal sector, different metals have different market conditions. For example, copper prices are supported by the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and continuous reduction of social inventory; alumina prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; etc. [11][14][17] - In the black metal sector, steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and bearish [43][46][49] - In the agricultural product sector, the meal market is expected to oscillate; the live pig market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [55][58] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the A - share market mostly opened lower and oscillated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others showed different trends. The TMT sector was active, while the chemical industry corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell in line with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts was somewhat repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. Overseas, the Japanese Prime Minister made statements about the economy and fiscal policy [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 26, the A - share trading volume was basically stable, with a total turnover of 1.78 trillion yuan. Northbound funds had a turnover of 2007.07 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed significantly lower across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. Long - term bonds performed weaker [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were still relatively loose [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the impact of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations and other factors, the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe. Pay attention to potential factors such as the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale, and the release of November economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has changed little, but consumer spending has declined, and employment has slightly decreased. European and Japanese economic situations also have certain impacts. The prices of gold and silver rose, with international gold closing at $4162.35 per ounce, up 0.79%, and international silver closing at $53.31 per ounce, up 3.6% [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The US economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and interest rate cut expectations are increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the Fed's officials' attitude, US economic data, and liquidity may cause market fluctuations [8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on the Europe Route No relevant content provided. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86655 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 86705 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the US - proposed peace agreement, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has returned to 80% [11]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM electrolytic copper in China decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [12]. - **Demand**: As of November 20, the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The downstream demand for copper shows strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME copper and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventory decreased [13]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The copper price oscillated strongly on the previous day. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [14]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were flat. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is showing signs of weakness [14]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating rate decreased, and it is expected that high - cost enterprises may reduce production in November [16]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level, and the futures main contract is testing the support at 2700 yuan/ton. The supply may contract, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. It is expected to maintain a bottom - out oscillating trend [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and bearish view [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 21400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the market activity and actual transactions were average [17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November due to winter environmental protection restrictions [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High aluminum prices restricted downstream processing [18]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory also decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The electrolytic aluminum market showed a position - reducing oscillation, and the short - term downward momentum weakened. The market presents a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be short - term downward space, with a wide - range oscillating view [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions were flat [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly decline in November due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for traditional automobile consumption showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high aluminum prices restricted downstream procurement [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy also increased [21]. - **Logic**: The casting aluminum alloy market has stabilized after a high - level correction. The cost is supported, the supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand shows resilience. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the arbitrage of going long on AD02 and shorting AL02 when the spread is above 650, with a wide - range oscillating view [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see mood [22]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to decrease. The TC of zinc concentrate has declined, and it is expected that the output of refined zinc may decline in November [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three major primary processing industries were basically stable. The domestic demand is stronger than overseas, and the export space is open [24]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, while the LME inventory increased [24]. - **Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the zinc price oscillated strongly on the previous day. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has shown structural improvement. It is expected to oscillate [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 26, the price of SMM 1 tin was unchanged, and the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic tin ore import volume increased, and the tin ingot import volume was at a low level. The tin ingot export volume decreased [27]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of soldering tin decreased. The LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, and social inventory all increased [28]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in South China shows certain resilience. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on tin prices and continue to hold previous long positions [29]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold previous long positions and consider buying on dips, with a wide - range oscillating view in the near term [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased, and the spot of some brands was in short supply [29]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel output decreased, but it was still at a high level [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited medium - term sustainability [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded area inventory is stable [30]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai nickel futures price continued to slightly recover. The market sentiment improved due to low valuations and upstream production cuts. It is expected to oscillate and recover, but the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and recovering short - term view [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is affected by stainless steel, with a decline in raw material cost support [32][34]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel output increased. In November, the production is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply pressure of the 300 - series remains high [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is difficult to reduce, and the warehouse receipts continue to decline [33]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market oscillated narrowly. The cost support is weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel iron prices [34][35]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton, with an oscillating adjustment short - term view [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the trading was cold [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate output increased. As of November 20, the weekly output also increased, mainly driven by lithium spodumene extraction [36]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in downstream orders after November [36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the sample weekly inventory decreased [37]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The market is in a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the social inventory is decreasing. However, the market divergence may increase [38]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe, with a wide - range oscillating short - term view [38]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the prices of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials and N - type granular silicon were stable [38]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic polysilicon output is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [39]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [39]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [40]. - **Logic**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, the futures price oscillates upward, and the market presents a reverse market structure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and cautious trading is recommended [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [40]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the average prices of industrial silicon in different regions were stable [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons due to production cuts in the southwest region [41]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [41]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory and social inventories slightly increased [42]. - **Logic**: The industrial silicon现货 is stable, and the futures price oscillates. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage window [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42]. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel spot price slightly weakened, and the basis also weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, while the iron ore price was relatively firm. The steel mill profit was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [43]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the iron element output increased. Recently, the molten iron output decreased but rebounded this period. The output of five major steel products increased [44]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The overall demand in November increased compared to October [45]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly [45]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [45]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [46]. - **Futures**:

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月27日 叶倩宁 | | | Z0016628 | | 价去 品种 服新闻 较前一日变化 全历史分位数 | | 历史1年分位数 | | | -24.63 L湖邮价差 | -722 | 38.50% | 18.50% | | 期现价差 H期现价差 -7.20 | 1.80 | 29.50% | 28.20% | | IC期现价差 -55.63 IM谢觉价差 -7225 | -1.04 | 40.50% 85.00% | 16.00% 72.60% | | -16.74 | | | | | 次月-当月 -13.40 | 2.40 | 37.70% | 31.90% | | 李月-崇月 -33.20 | 4.20 | 40.50% | 32.30% | | 远月 当月 80.00 | 6.80 | 27.80% | 23.80% | | F跨期价差 李月-次月 19.80 | 6.60 | 50.80% | 32.30% | | 远月-次月 -66.60 | ...