Guo Mao Qi Huo
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尿素数据日报-20250814
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea market maintains a stable and slightly stronger trend, with enterprise quotes increasing slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Although the new order trading atmosphere has weakened and downstream procurement has become more cautious, most enterprises have controllable inventory pressure supported by pending orders, and short - term quotes remain firm. Market sentiment is significantly boosted by the macro - level, but the actual demand follow - up will be the key factor determining the sustainability of the market. Overall, the urea market is viewed as oscillating, with positives mainly from the macro and cost sides and negatives from weak domestic demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas remained unchanged at 470 yuan, 890 yuan, and 4050 yuan respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Price - Domestic urea prices in different regions showed mixed trends on August 13, 2025. Prices in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 1730 yuan, while prices in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan to 1620 yuan. International prices such as China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR remained unchanged [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 88.76, 48.30, and 1700 respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Supply - The 5 - day production, overall urea production start - up rate, coal - based start - up rate, and gas - based start - up rate remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The gas - based start - up rate decreased by 0.00 [1] Demand - Indicators such as pending orders, compound fertilizer start - up rate, melamine start - up rate, and formaldehyde start - up rate all remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] Profit - Profits from fixed - bed, coal - water slurry, and some other production methods remained unchanged on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The profit from natural gas, liquid ammonia decreased by 60 yuan [1] Associated Products - The prices of compound fertilizer and melamine remained unchanged at 2500 yuan and 5180 yuan respectively on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The price of methanol increased by 5 yuan to 2255 yuan [1] Futures - The settlement price of urea futures increased by 2 yuan to 1728 yuan on August 13, 2025, compared to the previous day. The basis increased by 11 yuan to 14 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 9600 to 81594, and the open interest decreased by 16902 to 74908. The warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged [1]
有色金属数据日报-20250814
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:41
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The recent macro - sentiment has improved, but the downstream demand is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate and remain relatively strong [1]. - The decline of the US dollar index is favorable for aluminum prices, but the downstream demand for aluminum in China is under pressure and inventories are continuously increasing. Aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly [1]. - Zinc prices have rebounded due to emotional stimulation, with little change in fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to selling hedging opportunities [1]. - The macro - sentiment has warmed up. Nickel prices are oscillating strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel. Short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - **LME Metals (15:00 Futures Price)**: Copper at $9661.5 (0.19% change), zinc at $2826.5 (1.03% change), aluminum at $1974 (0.79% change), nickel at $15295 (- 0.23% change), tin at $33835 (0.22% change) [1]. - **SHFE Metals**: Copper at 79530 yuan (0.46% change), zinc at 22600 yuan (0.49% change), aluminum at 20820 yuan (1.02% change), nickel at 124290 yuan (- 0.08% change), tin at 270200 yuan (- 0.14% change) [1]. Inventory Indicators - **LME Total Inventory**: Copper at 155875 tons (0.56% change), zinc at 144325 tons (7.45% change), aluminum at 478625 tons (0.32% change), nickel at 197796 tons (6.28% change), tin at 1000 tons (16.43% change) [1]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Copper at 81933 tons (- 13.29% change), zinc at 16192 tons (2.69% change), aluminum at 113614 tons (- 3.33% change), nickel at 26194 tons (- 0.56% change), tin at 7430 tons (0.45% change) [1]. Ascending and Descending Premium Indicators - **LME Metals**: Copper's premium changed from - 3.89 to - 83.3 (- 87.1 change), zinc's from - 3.6 to - 1.18 (- 4.8 change), aluminum's from - 4.5 to 3.47 (- 8 change), nickel's from - 206 to - 207.1 (1.13 change) [1]. - **SHFE Metals**: Copper's premium at 200 yuan (0.0 change), zinc's from - 50 to - 10, aluminum's from - 20 to 10 (- 30 change) [1]. Ratio Indicators - **SHFE Metals' Ratio**: Copper's ratio at 8.1 (0.13% change), zinc's at 8 (0.1% change), aluminum's at 7.9 (0.23% change), nickel's at 8 (- 0.37% change), tin's at 8 (0.24% change) [1]. Spread Indicators - **SHFE Metals' Near - Month to Continuous Third - Month Spread**: Copper's spread at - 30 yuan (0.0 change), zinc's from - 5501 to - 40, aluminum's from 55 to - 40, tin's from - 190 to - 380 (190 change) [1]. Macro Information - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and will host a community bank meeting on October 9 [1]. - China's July CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous value [1]. Metal - Specific Analysis - **Copper**: US July OPI strengthened the market's expectation of Fed's August interest rate cut. China's July credit data was mixed. Domestically, the copper concentrate spot processing fee increased, but downstream demand was weak, with a short - term inventory accumulation expectation [1]. - **Aluminum**: The decline of the US dollar index was favorable for aluminum prices, but domestic downstream demand was weak, and inventories continued to increase [1]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rebounded due to sentiment, with overall production recovering. The Ino zinc inventory was at a low level, providing some support, and it was recommended to pay attention to selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment improved, and nickel prices oscillated strongly in the short - term. However, the global nickel inventory was high, and the demand was weak, with a surplus pressure on primary nickel [1].
多晶硅数据日报-20250814
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, increased production in Inner Mongolia has led to a rise in output, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules continue to increase. In the short term, the lower limit is supported by cost and major manufacturers' price - holding, while the upper pressure mainly comes from downstream weakness and hedging. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 51,290 with a decline of 0.98% [1] - PS2508 closed at 51,500 with an increase of 1.97% [1] - PS2509 closed at 51,265 with a decline of 1.03% [1] - PS2510 closed at 51,375 with a decline of 0.94% [1] Spread - The spread between PS2508 and PS2509 is 235, with an increase of 1,530 [1] - The spread between PS2509 and PS2510 is - 110, with a decrease of 50 [1] - The spread between PS2510 and PS2511 is 85, with an increase of 25 [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense material is 46, with a change of 0% [1] - The average price of N - type mixed material is 45, with a change of 0% [2] Inventory and Other Data - The weekly inventory of polysilicon is 23.30 million tons, an increase of 0.40 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of silicon wafers is 0.96 GW, an increase of 19.11 GW [2] - The daily registered warehouse receipts are 210 tons, an increase of 5,150 tons [2]
棉系数据日报-20250814
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:40
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a cotton data daily report dated August 14, 2025, provided by ITG Guomao Futures [2][3] Group 2: Market Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 increased from 13,980 to 14,130, a rise of 150 or 1.07% - CF09 rose from 13,735 to 13,830, an increase of 95 or 0.69% - CF09 - 01 decreased from -245 to -300, a drop of 55 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - Xinjiang cotton price increased from 15,052 to 15,057, a rise of 5 or 0.03% - Henan cotton price rose from 15,219 to 15,233, an increase of 14 or 0.09% - Shandong cotton price increased from 15,159 to 15,170, a rise of 11 or 0.07% - Xinjiang - main continuous basis decreased from 1,072 to 927, a drop of 145 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures - CY increased from 20,015 to 20,195, a rise of 180 or 0.90% [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Spot - C32S price index rose from 20,620 to 20,670, an increase of 50 or 0.24% [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/lb) remained unchanged at 68 - The arrival price increased from 76.40 to 78.10, a rise of 1.7 or 2.23% - 1% quota delivery price increased from 13,463 to 13,758, a rise of 295 or 2.19% - Sliding - duty delivery price increased from 14,264 to 14,456, a rise of 192 or 1.35% [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) increased from 6,035 to 6,065, a rise of 30 - Yarn - cotton spread (现货) decreased from 801 to 698, a drop of 103 - Domestic - foreign spread (现货) decreased from 1,696 to 1,412, a drop of 284 [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - In the expectation of a new - crop bumper harvest and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent - From late July to early August is a window period for multiple policies and industry events. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the realization of a new - cotton bumper harvest, the issuance of import sliding - duty quotas and the issuance volume have an impact on the Zhengzhou cotton market [3]
国贸商品指数日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 05:06
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Tuesday (August 12), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with industrial products mostly rising and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Black Series - Most black series commodities rose. After the Tangshan production restriction news was confirmed over the weekend and the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to rise, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils rebounded by about 1%. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons last week, reaching a more than two-month high. The steel market is currently in a tight balance between "policy expectation support" and "off-season demand suppression", and it is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of hot metal production and the implementation of production restriction policies [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. For copper, the expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased recently, and the bullish sentiment in the industrial product market is strong. The supply and demand situation in the copper market has not changed significantly, and the Shanghai copper futures are trading strongly. For lithium carbonate, it opened significantly higher, then oscillated lower, and the gain narrowed at the end of the session. The suspension of production at the Xiakeng Mine in Jiangxi has led to a substantial reduction in supply, but the increasing production of spodumene lithium extraction will offset some of the supply reduction. With the increase in downstream production scheduling in August, inventory is expected to decline, and the fundamental situation has improved marginally, driving lithium carbonate prices to oscillate strongly [1]. Energy Products - Energy products rebounded after a decline. International oil prices finally showed signs of stabilization and rebound overnight after several days of decline, which improved the sentiment in the domestic crude oil market. In the short term, OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and there are concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, so oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may lead to a temporary shortage of supply and support oil prices to rise periodically. In the long term, due to OPEC+'s production increase strategy, the demand for oil will weaken after the peak season, and inventory will accumulate due to poor refinery profits. In addition, the increasing substitution rate of the new energy industry will continue to put pressure on oil prices [1]. Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products rose. The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, and decided to impose a 75.8% deposit ratio on all Canadian companies. The far-month contracts of rapeseed products rose significantly, while the main September contract of rapeseed meal closed lower under the pressure of a large increase in warehouse receipts. In the short term, affected by China-Canada trade policies, rapeseed products are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Palm oil prices continued to be strong due to lower-than-expected production and inventory in Malaysia and the impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. The market sentiment is bullish in the short term, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to subsequent biodiesel policy changes and crude oil price trends [1].
商品期权数据日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:55
Report Title - The report is titled "Commodity Option Data Daily Report" [3] Report Core View - The report presents the latest data on commodity options including historical volatility, implied volatility, and provides trading strategy recommendations based on the volatility levels of different commodities [4][5][9] Commodity Option Data Historical Volatility - Various commodities are listed with their respective主力价格, 涨跌幅, 当日波动, and historical volatility (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120). For example, the主力 price of 沪铝 is 20735 with a 涨跌幅 of 0.29%, and its HV20 is 8% [4] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data such as 主力平值IV and 主力平值IV分位值 are provided for different commodities. For instance, the 主力平值IV of 二烯橡胶 is 48% and its 主力平值IV分位值 is 97% [5] Historical Trends - Historical trends of some commodities like 工业硅 and 铁矿 are presented graphically [5] Strategy Recommendations - For 碳酸锂, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination (卖出LC2509C80000 and 卖出LC2509P75000) on 2025.7.24 as its volatility is relatively high [9] - For 铁矿石, 豆油, and 菜油, it is recommended to buy a wide - straddle combination on 2025.6.3 as their volatilities are relatively low. For example, for 铁矿石, buy 买入I2509C690 and 买入I2509P700 [9]
工业硅数据日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding as factories in the northwest and southwest regions continue to resume production. On the demand side, the weekly output of downstream polysilicon and silicone has increased. From a balance perspective, the resumption of production on the supply side will impact the supply - demand balance, and combined with hedging pressure, the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Different contracts (SI2508 - SI2512) have different closing prices, price changes (ranging from -1.12% to 0.05%), and trading volumes. For example, SI2508 has a closing price of 8800 with a -0.68% change and a trading volume of -16; SI2509 has a closing price of 8800, a -1.07% change, and a trading volume of 68175 [1] Spot Market - Different grades of industrial silicon (such as 553 (unoxygenated), 553 (hydrogenated), 421, etc.) have different prices in different regions. For example, 553 (unoxygenated) has a price of 9200 in the market, and 421 has a price of 9750. In ports like Huangpu and Tianjin, prices also vary. Additionally, prices of related products like DMC, 107 glue, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy ADC12 are provided [1] Spread - The spreads between different contracts (e.g., si2508 - si2509, si2509 - si2510) and between different spot products (e.g., 421 spot - 553 oxygenated spot) are presented. For example, si2508 - si2509 has a spread of 0 with a change of 65, and 421 spot - 553 oxygenated spot has a spread of 350 [1] Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt - Information about various warehouses and their storage capacities, premium/discount standards, and changes in warehouse receipts is provided. The total storage capacity is 31.55 million tons, and the total warehouse receipts decreased by 102 from 49890 to 49788 [1]
多晶硅数据日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the increase in production in Inner Mongolia has led to a rise in output, and the downstream silicon wafer production schedule has been continuously increasing. In the short term, the lower limit of the price is supported by production costs and the price - holding actions of large manufacturers, while the upper limit is pressured by weak downstream demand and hedging. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 51,800 with a decline of 2.24%; PS2508 closed at 50,505; PS2509 closed at 51,800 with a decline of 2.41%; PS2510 closed at 51,860 with a decline of 2.34% [1]. Spread - The spread between PS2508 - PS2509 is - 1,295 with an increase of 1,280; the spread between PS2509 - PS2510 is - 60 with a decrease of 35; the spread between PS2510 - PS2511 is 60 with a decrease of 60 [1]. Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense material is 46 with no change in percentage; the average price of N - type mixed material is 45 with no change in percentage [2]. Inventory - The weekly inventory of polysilicon is 233,000 tons with an increase of 4,000 tons; the weekly inventory of silicon wafers is 0.96 GW with an increase of 19.11; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 4,940 tons with an increase of 240 tons [2]. Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stated on July 30 that it will govern the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promote the governance of production capacity in key industries. It will also deepen reforms, develop new - quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimize the market competition order [2].
合成橡胶数据日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:33
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 合成橡胶数据日报 免责 声明 投资目标、财务优况或需要、投资者需旨在判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向回贸期货客户推送。未经国贸期货授权许可,任 何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎, I C E K 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为- 流的衍生品综合服务商 市 市 客 服 热 线 官 方 网 站 需 有 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 I (Cleikelis 入 期 | 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 能源化工研究中心:叶海文 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 从业资格证号: F3071622 | 2025/8/13 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
商品指数日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday (August 12), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with industrial products mostly rising and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1] - The steel market is in a tight - balance state between "policy expectation support" and "off - season demand suppression", and high - level volatility of steel is expected. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of hot metal production and the implementation of production - restriction policies [1] - In the short term, due to the impact of China - Canada trade policies, the vegetable oil sector may continue to show a strong - oscillating trend, and palm oil may also continue its strong performance, with market sentiment remaining bullish [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Black Series - Most black - series commodities rose. After the implementation of production - restriction news in Tangshan over the weekend and the upward trend of coking coal and coke futures prices, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded by about 1%. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons last week, reaching a more than two - month high [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. For copper, with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and a strong bullish atmosphere in industrial products, the copper market showed a strong performance. For lithium carbonate, it opened sharply higher, then oscillated and declined, with a supply contraction due to the shutdown of a mine in Jiangxi, but the increase in spodumene - based lithium production would supplement part of the supply reduction. With increased downstream production scheduling in August, the fundamentals improved marginally [1] Energy Products - Energy products rebounded after a decline. International oil prices stabilized and rebounded overnight, driving up the sentiment in the domestic crude - oil market. In the short term, due to OPEC +'s planned production increase in September and concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may support short - term price increases. In the long term, due to OPEC +'s production - increase strategy, weakening peak - season demand, inventory accumulation, and the increasing substitution rate of the new - energy industry, oil prices are still under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products rose. The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce led to a sharp rise in the far - month vegetable oil contracts, while the main 09 contract of rapeseed meal fell under the pressure of a large increase in warehouse receipts. Palm oil continued to be strong due to lower - than - expected production growth and inventory in Malaysia and the impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]