Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Commodity sentiment has weakened, PTA basis has weakened and trading volume has declined. Domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, and PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The overall polyester inventory is not high, and the polyester load has dropped to 88% [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4860 to 4825, a decrease of 35 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4527 to 4503, a decrease of 24 [2] Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price decreased from 4856 to 4808, a decrease of 48 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4450 to 4414, a decrease of 36 [2] Short Fiber Data - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6665 to 6650, a decrease of 15 [2] - Short fiber basis increased from 119 to 136, an increase of 17 [2] - 8 - 9 spread decreased from 48 to 18, a decrease of 30 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] Bottle Chip Data - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market decreased, with the average price dropping by 35 yuan/ton. The mainstream negotiation range is 5950 - 6080 yuan/ton [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 6011 to 5993, a decrease of 18 [2] - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6011 to 5993, a decrease of 18 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6111 to 6093, a decrease of 18 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 795 to 790, a decrease of 5 [2] Others - T32S pure polyester yarn price decreased from 10350 to 10300, a decrease of 50 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3685 to 3650, a decrease of 35 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14950 to 14800, a decrease of 150 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1230 to 1297, an increase of 66.64 [2]

| | | | 玻璃纯碱数据目报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ITG国贸期货 | | 国贸期货研究院出品 | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 制表人:黑色金属研究中心 | | | | | | | | 黄玉贺 | | | | | | | | 投资咨询证:Z0015761 从业资格证:F3051824 | | | | | | | 2025/08/01 | | | | | 细碱 | | | 合约 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 收盘 | 1224 | 1298 | 1117 | 1325 | 1378 | 1247 | | 涨跌 | -96 | -90 | -74 - 14 | -69 | -74 | -64 | | ■期货 幅度 | -7.27% | -6.48% | -6. 21% | -4.95% | -5. 1% | -4.88% | | 价三 | 1月-5月 | 5月-9月 | 9月-1月 | 1月-5月 | 5月-9月 | 9月-1月 | | 收盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, and the port inventory of PTA has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market's port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens. However, the basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish has declined [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and has been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, to 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, with a change of 2.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1014.6 yuan/ton to 947.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 67.62 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: It decreased from 1.2641 to 1.2453, a change of - 0.0189 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price dropped from 866 to 858, a change of - 8 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It decreased from 277 to 250, a change of - 27 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4856 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: It decreased from 4860 to 4825 yuan/ton, a change of - 35.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: It increased from 179.3 yuan/ton to 189.0 yuan/ton, a change of 9.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: It decreased from 185.3 yuan/ton to 177.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from (10) to (15), a change of - 5.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 29738 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4450 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, a change of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: It decreased from (112.68) to (116.87) yuan/ton, a change of - 4.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: It decreased from 4527 to 4503 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 79.45% to 76.64%, a change of - 2.81% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 58.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: Remained unchanged at 6760 [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from (162) to (124), a change of 38.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: Increased from 7060 to 7065, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (362) to (319), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: Increased from 7955 to 7960, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from (167) to (124), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Decreased from 6665 to 6650, a change of - 15 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 93 to 116, a change of 23.0 [2]. - **Semi - Bright Polyester Chip**: Decreased from 5920 to 5905, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Polyester Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (102) to (79), a change of 23.0 [2]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Long - Filament Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 110% to 27%, a change of - 83% [2]. - **Short - Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: Increased from 42% to 49%, a change of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 89% to 72%, a change of - 17% [2]. 5. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of shipping derivatives basically peaked at the end of July. It is expected to decline slowly until late August and then the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract game is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October. The strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profits due to recent large pullbacks) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 3.30%, CCFI by 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [3]. - **Contract Index**: All contract indices declined. EC2506 dropped by 3.41%, EC2508 by 0.81%, EC2510 by 2.97%, EC2512 by 2.63%, EC2602 by 3.09%, and EC2604 by 4.47% [3]. - **Position**: For positions, EC2606 increased by 32, while EC2508 decreased by 724, EC2410 by 3056, EC2412 by 45, EC2602 by 77, and EC2604 by 184 [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: The 10 - 12 spread increased by 2.1 to - 267.2, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 1.6 to 207.6, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 16.3 to 368.2 [3]. Market News - USTR Greer hopes for positive progress in China - related trade but does not expect a major breakthrough. Trump's trade team also anticipates no major breakthrough in China negotiations. The EU - China summit commemorated the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, with the meeting period shortened from two days to one at China's request, reflecting escalating tensions. The US - China trade negotiation team met in Stockholm, and both sides expressed the importance of stable economic and trade relations and the intention to continue consultations [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international sugar - related data and market analysis [2][3][4] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan was 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong was 6115 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - SR09 was 5793, down 11; SR01 was 5655, down 11; SR09 - 01 was 138, unchanged [3] - The domestic market demand was weak, low inventory supported the spot price in Guangxi, and processed sugar entered the market, causing the quoted price to loosen and putting pressure on prices [4] Group 3: International Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, up 0.0160; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The main contract of ICE raw sugar was 16.46, unchanged; the main contract of London white sugar was 573, up 3; the main contract of Brent crude oil was 72.75, unchanged [3] - In Brazil, sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continued to decline, Brazil's sugar output might not meet expectations [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Considering the expected increase in imports, the overall domestic supply - demand situation would be marginally looser, and the market was expected to be bearish after a rebound [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Pulp supply is increasing while prices are decreasing, with the Arauco company's new July wood pulp offers showing certain trends and the May shipment volume to China increasing by 3.3% [1] - The demand side shows a slight decline in the output of major finished paper products this week, and the low prices of finished paper provide weak support for pulp [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China is 210.5 tons, showing a destocking trend with a 1.8% month - on - month decrease [1][2] - Pulp futures are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and this week's commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile, with prices expected to fluctuate widely between 5200 and 5500 [2] Summary by Directory Price Data - On July 31, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2509 decreased by 1.45% and 1.76% respectively compared to the previous day, while SP2605 increased by 0.86% [1] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp such as Russian needle and broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish decreased by 2.21% and 0.72% respectively [1] - The foreign market quotations of Chilean Silver Star and Chilean Star decreased by 2.70% and 10.71% respectively, and the import costs decreased by 2.68% and 10.60% respectively [1] Fundamental Data - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.09% decrease compared to May [1] - The shipment volume of pulp to China in May increased by 3.3% compared to April [1] - The output of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, toilet paper, and white cardboard decreased slightly this week [1] Valuation Data - On July 31, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 0.825, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 0.889 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, and that of broad - leaf pulp Golden was 19 [1] Inventory Data - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 210.5 tons, a 1.8% decrease compared to the previous period [1][2] Strategy - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 5200 and 5500 this week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. For example, the price in Shandong rose from 2290.00 to 2295.00, while the price in Taicang dropped from 2400.00 to 2385.00. Other regions like Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - Among关联品 (related products), the price of methane chloride increased from 2060.00 to 2110.00, and MTBE increased from 5000.00 to 5030.00 [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 276685.00 to 277085.00, and the domestic operating rate rose from 85.66 to 85.78. International operating rate remained at 69.71 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 339830.00 and 725800.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 244832.00. The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, MTBE, etc. remained mostly unchanged [1]. - The formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. With a slight adjustment in raw material methanol, cost - side support strengthened. However, formaldehyde producers faced greater shipping pressure as the downstream entered the off - season [1].

Market Review - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 Index was 2775.9935, down 1.54%, with a trading volume of 61.52 billion and a turnover of 131.852 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4075.5912, down 1.82%, with a trading volume of 267.09 billion and a turnover of 492.143 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 6661.1862, down 0.85%, with a trading volume of 270.14 billion and a turnover of 401.822 billion yuan [4] - The trading volume of Shanghai 50 index options was 5.68 million contracts, including 3.59 million call options and 2.09 million put options, with a PCR of 0.58 and an open interest of 7.13 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 14.43 million contracts, including 8.40 million call options and 6.03 million put options, with a PCR of 0.72 and an open interest of 19.96 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 27.99 million contracts, including 14.89 million call options and 13.10 million put options, with a PCR of 0.88 and an open interest of 26.81 million contracts [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% to 3573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.73%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 1.16%, the STAR 50 Index fell 1.01%, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.36%, the Wind A500 Index fell 1.89%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 1.75%. The A - share trading volume for the day was 1.96 trillion yuan, compared with 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day [10] Volatility Analysis - Conducted historical volatility analysis and next - month at - the - money implied volatility analysis on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presented the volatility smile curves [8][9][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30 pointed out the need to deepen reforms, promote the development of new - quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimize market competition order. It also mentioned governing disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting capacity governance in key industries. The market sentiment may cool down due to the Politburo's stance on anti - involution and "low - price" expressions. In the short term, although downstream stocking is significant, downstream production scheduling has not increased, and the actual consumption of inventory is limited. There is a possibility of capital re - entry, and prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. Industrial players can consider hedging on price rallies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Lithium Compound Futures - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 68,000 yuan/ton, down 4.87% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 4.66% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 68,440 yuan/ton, down 4.01% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 3.98% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 69,120 yuan/ton, down 3.46% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 766 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,120 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,325 yuan, down 350 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,250 yuan, down 375 yuan [2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,885 yuan, down 305 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,895 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,455 yuan, up 80 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,720 yuan, an increase of 1,370 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons [2]. - The inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons [2]. - The inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons [2]. - The inventory of other sectors (weekly, tons) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,545 tons, down 6,731 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,893 yuan, and the profit is 7,621 yuan [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 7,136 yuan [3].

| | | | | | | | 日本市政府市政府 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/31 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | | Z0020036 董子勖 F03094002 | | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/吨 ...