螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 2026/1/2 | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | | 需求 | | （万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | | 同差 | 当周值 | | 环差 | | | 同差 | | 铁水 | 227 4 . | | 0 . | 8 | 2 2 . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 废钢 | #N/A | | #N/A | | #N/A | | #N/A | | #N/A | ...

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观预期支撑，矿价高位震荡 | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 当周值 | | 环 | 比 | | 同 比 | | | 供 应 | 全球发货量 3677 . | 1 | 212 | . | 6 | 197 . | 7 | | | 澳发货量 2039 . | 7 | 150 | . | 5 | -150 | 0 . | | | 巴发货量 944 . | 0 | 84 | 6 . | | 195 . | 5 | | | 力拓-中国发货量 696 . | 3 | 95 | 3 . | | 56 . | 9 | | | BHP-中国发货量 513 . | 4 | -9 | 5 . | | -87 . | 9 | | | FMG-中 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：假期间震荡偏弱 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：305000-335000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-11 11-22 12-06 12-20 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of oscillating downward, the yield curve became steeper, and the TL contract broke below the support platform. In the medium term, due to reasons such as the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of long - and medium - term capital entry into the market, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the view of an overall oscillating and bearish trend is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating downward pattern, with the yield curve becoming steeper and the TL contract breaking below the support platform. In the medium term, due to factors like the central bank's relatively restrained monetary policy, inflation expectation change, long - and medium - term capital inflow orientation, and unfalsifiable 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is oscillating and bearish [1][3]. - The market showed a differentiated feature of short - end stability and increased long - end volatility this week. Short - end interest rates were supported by loose liquidity, while the long - end was pressured by policy expectations. After the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office proposed to implement a "more proactive fiscal policy" in 2026 on December 25th, market concerns about the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds increased. Currently, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, and the value of the ultra - long end is emerging [5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided 3.3. Seat Analysis - On December 29th, the market opening was expected to trigger a quantitative selling signal, leading to an increase in trading volume. Private funds reduced their positions intraday, intensifying the position reduction of allocation - type institutions. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of the ultra - long end is gradually emerging, and various institutions have a slight willingness to test positions intraday [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term due to weak export sales data and a lack of upward drivers [5][16]. - Domestic cotton futures and spot prices are stable. Zhengzhou cotton futures are likely to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term, but the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, downstream profits, and import profits of out - of - quota cotton [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **ICE Cotton Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 64.46 cents/pound, high 64.80 cents/pound, low 63.68 cents/pound, close 64.01 cents/pound, down 0.45 cents/pound, down 0.70%, volume 75,909 lots, volume change - 7,304 lots, open interest 177,412 lots, open interest change - 2,875 lots [5]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 14,535 yuan/ton, high 14,640 yuan/ton, low 14,390 yuan/ton, close 14,585 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, volume 1,147,629 lots, volume change - 600,223 lots, open interest 860,725 lots, open interest change - 43,135 lots [5]. - **Cotton Yarn Main - continuous Contract**: Open price 20,595 yuan/ton, high 20,650 yuan/ton, low 20,480 yuan/ton, close 20,585 yuan/ton, unchanged, volume 36,697 lots, volume change - 23,407 lots, open interest 19,590 lots, open interest change - 3,612 lots [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Initial rebound was weak, failed to break through 65 cents/pound, and declined in the second half of the week due to a stronger US dollar and poor weekly export sales data [5]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending December 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 41,400 tons, a 40% week - on - week decrease and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 33,300 tons, a 9% week - on - week increase and a 23% increase from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.4863 million tons, accounting for 57% of the annual forecast export volume; the cumulative export shipments were 640,000 tons, accounting for 43% of the total annual signed volume [6]. - **Other Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: The government resumed imposing an 11% import tariff on cotton from January 1, 2026. There are concerns about reduced yarn production due to supply shortages and increased import costs [6]. - **Brazil**: As of December 27, the planting progress of the 2025/26 cotton season was 25.1%, an 8.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 0.1 percentage point slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage point slower than the three - year average [7]. - **Pakistan**: The domestic cotton market has limited trading. The daily arrival of seed cotton has dropped below 1,550 tons, and most ginneries have completed their processing for the year. The expected total production of new cotton is 1.085 - 1.124 million tons [7]. - **Textile Industry Startup Rates in Southeast Asia**: As of the week ending December 26, the startup rates of textile enterprises were 66.9% in India, 61.9% in Vietnam, and 65.5% in Pakistan [8]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Prices and Transactions**: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices were stable in the week ending January 2. Early in the week, there were some transactions of fixed - price old cotton from the 2023/24 season and some low - basis new offers, but subsequent transactions were light. The spot sales basis changed little, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [9][10]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, there were 5,712 registered warehouse receipts and 3,527 forecast warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 9,239 lots, equivalent to 388,038 tons [10]. - **Textile Enterprises**: The situation of textile enterprises is not optimistic. The cotton yarn market has average trading. Due to weak downstream demand, the increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of yarn mills. Some spinning mills have reduced their startup rates, and the fabric market has few inquiries [11]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving mills' yarn inventory, spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory, cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory, yarn mills' startup rates, cotton cloth enterprises' startup rates, cotton yarn profits, cotton cloth profits, cotton 5 - 9 spreads, cotton import profits, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [13][14][15]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [16]. - For Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to pay attention to market sentiment, downstream profits, and import profits of out - of - quota cotton. The discussion on the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is more suitable to be traded after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][16].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行情走势 02 双胶纸价格走势 资料来源：同花顺iFinD，卓创资讯，国泰君安期货研究 日期 12-31 70g高白均价 4459.38 昨日 4459.38 上周 4459.38 环比 0 周同比 0 价格数据 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 2025-01 2025-01 2025-01 2025-01 2025-01 2025-02 2025-02 2025-02 2025-02 2025-03 2025-03 20 ...

烧碱：关注1月交割压力 PVC：震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 | | 需求 | 然年底到明年年初氧化铝存在新增产能，但因耗碱量差异，未来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Glass: Short - term is strong, medium - term is a volatile market. Supply contraction and demand weakness will cause price fluctuations. In 2026, it may not be a continuous decline pattern [2]. -纯碱: Medium - term is volatile and weak, short - term is strong. Supply surplus and downstream demand pressure are the main drivers of price decline, but low valuation provides support [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - There are 265 float glass production lines in the country, with 212 in operation, and the daily melting volume is 151,405 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week. The industry capacity utilization rate is 82.14%. 4 production lines were shut down and cold - repaired this week [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines is 18,630 tons/day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines is 15,010 tons/day. The potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,190 tons/day, and the potential old - line restart has a total daily melting volume of 7,930 tons. The potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting volume of 9,100 tons/day [6][7][8]. - The current in - production capacity is about 154,500 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [14]. Demand - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The orders in the northern region continue to decline, while the central and eastern regions remain stable, and the southern region shows a moderate increase [2]. Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of key monitored provincial production enterprises is 53.78 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.55 million weight boxes from last Thursday, a decline of 2.80%. The inventory days are 28.66 days, a decrease of 0.53 days from last Thursday [2]. Price and Profit - The price in Shahe is about 1,010 - 1,040 yuan/ton; in central China's Hubei region, it is about 1,020 - 1,060 yuan/ton; in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers is about 1,180 - 1,240 yuan/ton [21]. - The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, the profit of using natural gas is about - 186 yuan/ton, and the profit of using coal is about - 21 yuan/ton [29]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak, with upper pressure at 1,150 - 1,180 and lower support at 900 - 930. -跨期: Do not participate for the time being. -跨品种: Do not participate for the time being. If trading the inflation expectation factor in 2026, glass may be stronger, but there are many uncertainties in the market [2]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The market trading has weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 6.52%; the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70% [41][43]. Capacity and Inventory - There are 402 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation in the country, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, unchanged from last week. The inventory is expected to increase seasonally later [45]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - This week, the domestic soda ash production is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 81.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09% [3]. - Some soda ash plants have carried out phased maintenance and production reduction [53]. Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.34 million tons (including the external warehouse inventory of some manufacturers), of which the heavy - soda inventory is 594,000 tons [3]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in the Shahe area is 1,140 yuan/ton, and a small number of prices have increased slightly. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,140 - 1,300 yuan/ton [67][68]. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 21 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 57 yuan/ton [72]. Strategy - Unilateral: There is still pressure in the medium - term, with upper pressure at 1,250 - 1,300 and lower support at 1,080 - 1,100. -跨期: Do not participate for the time being. -跨品种: Do not participate for the time being. If trading the inflation expectation factor in 2026, glass may be stronger, but there are many uncertainties in the market [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. raid on Venezuela may increase crude oil volatility, but the overall expected impact is limited [11][12]. - U.S. weekly employment data has improved, and the economic surprise index has rebounded, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index [14][15][16]. - The short - term "theoretical dollar" has rebounded, and the dollar index is in an undervalued position compared to the model. The dollar is expected to strengthen in the short - term after the New Year, with a short - term target of 99 - 99.5 [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Asset Classes and Market High - Frequency Data Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury yields of various maturities showed different weekly changes. For example, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.3bp to 4.19% on January 2, 2026 [33][34]. - Major developed government bond yields also had weekly changes, such as the 10 - year German government bond yield increasing by 3.8bp to 2.90% [33][34]. Exchange Rate Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.46% to 98.4240 on January 2, 2026. Other major currencies had different weekly performances, like the euro falling 0.45% and the yen rising 0.17% [68][70]. Commodities - Global major commodities had different weekly changes. For example, Shanghai gold fell 3.66%, while Shanghai copper rose 2.23% [110][111][112]. Overseas Equities - Global major indices had different weekly performances. The S&P 500 index fell 1.06%, while the European Stoxx600 index rose 1.26% [137][138][139]. - S&P index sub - sectors also had different weekly performances. The S&P energy index rose 3.00%, while the S&P optional consumer index fell 3.60% [140][141][142]. 2. Weekly Key Macroeconomic Logic Tracking and Asset Views Weekly Overseas Macroeconomic Highlights - The U.S. raid on Venezuela may increase crude oil volatility. Venezuela's current crude oil exports are 960,000 barrels per day, and its exports to China account for over 60% [11][13]. - U.S. weekly initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and continuing jobless claims decreased. The economic surprise index and hard - data surprise index rebounded [14][15][16]. Weekly Currency Group Scoring - Through the currency group scoring model, in the G10 currency group, the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone had relatively high comprehensive scores, while the euro and British pound had low scores. In the Asian currency group, the New Taiwan dollar, Philippine peso, Thai baht, and Indian rupee had high scores, and the CNY and CNH had short - term score differentiation [28][29][30]. FICC Asset Views - **Dollar**: In the short - term, it is expected to strengthen, with a target of 99 - 99.5. In the long - term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108, and there is an upward risk [31]. - **Non - U.S. Exchange Rates**: In the short - term, based on scoring, different currencies have different performances. In the long - term, the Japanese yen spot exchange rate is significantly undervalued [31]. - **USD/CNH**: In the short - term, the RMB has a seasonal strengthening trend, but the appreciation space is limited. In the long - term, the RMB is undervalued in the exchange - rate valuation model, and the annual low is expected to be in the range of 6.85 - 6.95, with a high of 7.20 [31]. - **10 - Year U.S. Treasury Yield**: In the short - term, it challenges the 4.20% short - term resistance level. If it breaks through, it can reach 4.30 - 4.35% technically. In the long - term, the central level is around 4.20%, with an upward risk [31]. - **2 - Year U.S. Treasury Yield**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the support level is around 3.20%, and the target is 3.68%. There is a risk of a "bear steepening" of the yield curve in the second half of the year [31]. - **London Gold Spot**: The Venezuela incident may stimulate safe - haven sentiment, which is beneficial to gold. After the holiday, the gold - silver ratio may continue to repair upwards [31]. - **London Silver Spot**: It is expected to build an oscillation platform at a high level first, waiting for a 20% increase later. The target in the first quarter of 2026 is 90 - 100 US dollars per ounce [31]. 3. Macroeconomic Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data Real - Time Economic Momentum - It includes real - time GDP models, GDP sub - items, and sector economic surprise indices of the U.S., as well as economic surprise indices of the U.S., Europe, and China [192][196]. Financial Conditions - It involves the central bank's balance sheet and financial conditions index, including the Fed's balance sheet, G4 central banks' balance - sheet - to - GDP ratios, and financial conditions indices of the U.S. and the eurozone [200][203]. Fiscal Policy - It includes U.S. federal government fiscal expenditure and revenue sub - items, government debt issuance, and the government deficit - to - GDP ratio [208][213]. Employment Market - It tracks U.S. employment market data on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, job vacancies, and unemployment claims [216][220]. Inflation Indicators - It analyzes U.S. inflation data, including inflation breakdown, core drivers, and inflation expectations [224][226][229]. Consumer Demand - It tracks U.S. consumer data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, personal income, and household debt [233][240][247]. Cycle Positioning - It tracks industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, as well as U.S. wholesale, retail, and manufacturing inventories and inventory - to - sales ratios [255][264]. Credit Cycle - It tracks U.S. credit conditions, including corporate credit surveys and high - yield corporate credit spreads [268][270]. Transportation and Logistics - It tracks logistics data between China and the U.S., Europe and the U.S., as well as aviation, supply - chain indices, trucks, and shipping [272][277][279]. Real Estate Market - It includes the U.S. real - estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real - estate market data [287][292]. Eurozone - It includes macro - overviews, cycle positioning, and relative - strength analysis of the eurozone, such as deficit rates, inflation, and PMI indicators [297][305][314].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the view on crude oil is to focus on short - term sentiment - driven positives and consider adding short positions on rallies. The market may open high and then decline, with short positions recommended to be held. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI are under significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks, testing 380 yuan per barrel. Although the decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, a long - term decline is unlikely to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may lead to increased volatility in oil prices [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply features "regional differentiation + geopolitical disturbances". The demand is dominated by the Asia - Pacific region, showing significant regional disparities. The overall view is that the market may open high and then decline, with short - term sentiment - related upside and long - term downward pressure on prices [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - The gold - to - oil ratio has strengthened again. Short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to "re - inflation" trading in the medium to long term. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [18][20][21]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The production of some countries has changed, such as the increase in production in Guyana and Brazil, and the potential impact of sanctions on the supply of Venezuela and Iran. The export volume of OPEC + core members reached a peak in September and declined in the fourth quarter. US shale oil drilling and production have stabilized [8][9][23]. 3.4 Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe have rebounded, and those of Chinese state - owned and private refineries have also increased. The global refining capacity has a net increase of 3.6 million barrels per day. The demand in China is shifting from fuel to chemical raw materials, and the demand in Europe is weak [10][63][65]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories have stabilized, while Cushing inventories remain significantly below the historical average. European diesel inventories have decreased, and gasoline inventories have increased. Global in - transit crude oil inventories have declined from a high level, and global crude oil floating storage is high [67][71][73]. 3.6 Price and Spread - The spot market was weak during the holiday season. The Dubai spot spread entered a contango for the first time in two years. North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the valuation of SC is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [83][94][95].