Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The price of white sugar follows the price of raw sugar [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Raw sugar price is 16.36 cents/pound, down 0.43 cents year-on-year; mainstream spot price is 6,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan year-on-year; futures main contract price is 5,839 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan year-on-year [1] - 91 spread is 169 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan year-on-year; 15 spread is 54 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan year-on-year; mainstream spot basis is 221 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan year-on-year [1] Macro and Industry News - Pakistan approves the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil is still slow, but MIX has increased significantly year-on-year; monsoon precipitation in India is higher than LPA; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year-on-year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of June in the 24/25 season, China imported 2.51 million tons of sugar (-650,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3] - As of July 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year-on-year, cumulative sugar production was 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, sugar production in India was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [3] - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of white sugar is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The expected supply - demand contradiction of lead supports its price. The lead - zinc industry is expected to achieve a mild recovery as the lead - zinc industry monthly prosperity index in June continued to operate in the "normal" range [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,960 yuan/ton, up 0.83%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,011.5 dollars/ton, up 1.72%. The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 44,659 lots, an increase of 12,371 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 9,912 lots, an increase of 1,265 lots [1] - **Position and Premium**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 44,870 lots, a decrease of 5,711 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,203 lots, an increase of 105 lots. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 23.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory and Profit**: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 60,059 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,925 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 725.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 134.8 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was - 543.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.62 yuan/ton [1] News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the Fed's policy needs to be re - examined, and trade negotiations will prioritize quality rather than rush for a deadline [1] - The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, and the EU is considering a "nuclear option" for countermeasures. The US has proposed stricter trade conditions, including raising tariffs to 15% or higher, maintaining the current 25% auto tariff, and possibly imposing a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals [1] - The monitoring model results of the monthly prosperity index of China's lead - zinc industry showed that the lead - zinc industry prosperity index in June continued to operate in the "normal" range, and the industry is expected to achieve a mild recovery [1] Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment for rebar and hot - rolled coil remains strong, with both showing a strong and volatile trend [3] - The trend strength for rebar and hot - rolled coil is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5][6] Group 3: Summary based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - For RB2510 of rebar, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The trading volume was 2,696,289 lots, the open interest was 2,095,912 lots, and the open interest increased by 20,122 lots [3] - For HC2510 of hot - rolled coil, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton or 2.20%. The trading volume was 1,279,822 lots, the open interest was 1,600,476 lots, and the open interest increased by 4,222 lots [3] Spot Price Data - Rebar spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 70 - 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 70 - 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] - The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Price Difference Data - The basis of RB2510 decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 4 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of RB2510 - RB2601 decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2510 - HC2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 increased by 4 yuan/ton [3] - The spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar increased by 8 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News Energy Consumption Data - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 48,418 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 45,371 billion kWh, and the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 31,485 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [3] Industry Policy News - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5] Industry Production and Inventory Data - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 17, the output of rebar decreased by 7.6 tons, the output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 tons, and the total output of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 2.89 tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 15.33 tons, the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.28 tons, and the apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [5] - In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease in daily output; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease in daily output. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons or 2.4% from the previous ten - day period [5] - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The average daily output of crude steel in June was 2.773 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [5] Financial Data - At the end of June 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [5] Export Data - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 900,000 tons or 8.5% from the previous month, with an average price of 687.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 US dollars/ton or 1.5% from the previous month. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, an increase of 4.908 million tons or 9.2% year - on - year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a "moderately strong" outlook, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to potential supply reduction and strong macro - sentiment, the short - term trend of lithium carbonate may remain strong [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 71,280, the trading volume was 848,150, and the open interest was 381,185. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,200, the trading volume was 86,835, and the open interest was 114,678. The warehouse receipt volume was 9,969 [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 3,280, spot - 2511 was - 2,200, 2509 - 2511 was 1,080, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 1,650, and spot - CIF was 6,997 [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 730, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,545 [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 63,370, etc. [1] - **Industry Chain Related Data**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,075, lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 30,645, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 67,741 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1273 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1350 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, up 1300 yuan/ton [2] - Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli plans to stop production for equipment maintenance on July 25, 2025, for about 26 days, which will not affect existing sales contracts and future supply [3] - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease, equivalent to 46,000 tons of LCE. Lithium spodumene from Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa accounted for 79% [3]

2025 年 07 月 22 日 短纤：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 瓶片：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2508 | 昨日 6448 | 前日 6412 | 变化 36 | PF08-09 | 昨日 1 ୧ | 前日 40 | 变化 -24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6432 | 6372 | 60 | PF09-10 | -60 | -16 | -44 | | | 短纤2510 | 6492 | ୧388 | 104 | PF基差 | 1 68 | 228 | -60 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 271130 | 268777 | 2353 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 600 | 6, 600 | 0 | | | 短纤成交量 | 232464 | 333167 | - ...

2025 年 07 月 22 日 品 研 究 工业硅：仓单继续去化，盘面抗跌 多晶硅：关注组件端成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 9,260 | 565 | 565 | 1,790 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 1,260,930 -444,069 | | -213,063 | 831,847 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 383,296 | -3,956 | -19,594 | 72,939 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 45,660 | 1,810 | 3,895 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 621,314 | -423,760 | 150,985 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 沥青：震荡反复 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,678 | 0.11% | 3,638 | -1.09% | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,657 | 0.05% | 3,615 | -1.15% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2508 | 手 | 2,750 | 379 | 6,308 | (1,060) | | | BU2509 | 手 | 141,580 | (15,006) | 223,360 | (4,713) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Palm Oil: Boosted by Macro Factors, Beware of Sentiment Decline; Soybean Oil: Rising with the Oil and Fat Sector, Weaker Among Varieties [2] - Analyst: Li Junyu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil production growth is expected to slow due to sustainability issues and aging oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, with global supply projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8%. Meanwhile, soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase by 2034, and global soybean production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1%. [4][5][8] Summary by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,910 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.60% change and 8,924 yuan/ton at night with a 0.16% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,092 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.83% change and 8,054 yuan/ton at night with a -0.47% change; other futures also had corresponding price and change details [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 708,709 lots with an increase of 5026, and an open interest of 509,869 lots with a decrease of 47,186; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 321,474 lots with a decrease of 19,705, and an open interest of 535,817 lots with a decrease of 22,367; other futures also had corresponding trading volume and open - interest changes [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,300 yuan/ton with no change; other spot prices also had corresponding details [3] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 60 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 208 yuan/ton; other basis details were also provided [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 653 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 818 yuan/ton; other spread details were also provided [3] Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Production Outlook**: Global palm oil production growth is expected to slow due to sustainability issues and aging oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for nearly one - third of global vegetable oil production and over 80% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil supply is projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8% [4][5] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: From July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.03% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased by 6.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The export volume from July 1 - 20 was 740,394 tons, a 7.31% decrease compared to the same period last month according to AmSpec. United Plantations reported a 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year increase in palm oil and palm kernel production in Q2, respectively, and a 5.6% increase in palm oil average price and a 46.5% increase in palm kernel sales price [5][6] - **India's Palm Oil Situation**: India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm seeds, with significant demand growth. In 2024, India imported 303 million tons of palm oil from Malaysia, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports [6] - **Indonesia's B50 Policy**: Indonesia's plan to increase the palm - oil - based biodiesel blending ratio to 50% next year faces challenges due to uncertainties in raw material supply, production capacity, infrastructure gaps, and potential environmental and legal issues [7] - **Soybean Production Outlook**: By 2034, soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase. Brazil, the largest soybean producer, is projected to see a 0.8% annual growth in soybean production, slightly higher than the 0.5% of the US. Argentina and Paraguay's soybean production is expected to reach 56 million tons and 13 million tons respectively by 2034, and global soybean production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1% [8] - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [8] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2 [9]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 焦炭：震荡偏强 焦煤：震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 1006 | 80 | 8. 64% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1603 | 85 | 5.60% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1610604 | 504871 | -27032 | | | | J2509 | 41238 | 43915 | -17 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | | | | | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 全泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1300 1008 | 1300 950 | 0 58 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1150 | 1150 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on July 22, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Different commodities in the black series have different trends: iron ore shows a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese maintain strong - side oscillations due to persistent market sentiment; coke and coking coal are oscillating strongly; thermal coal stabilizes with oscillating as daily consumption recovers; logs oscillate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton with a 3.06% increase. The open - interest decreased by 29,220 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore all increased. Some basis and spreads showed minor changes [4]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; for hot - rolled coils HC2510, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton with a 2.20% increase. Spot prices in different regions increased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - **News**: In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries. Steel production and inventory data in July showed certain changes [8][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia and silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia both increased by 50 yuan/ton. Some basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [14]. - **News**: On July 21, prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions increased. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined. In June, the national manganese ore import volume decreased compared to May but increased compared to the same period last year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Oscillating strongly [2][18][19]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton with an 8.64% increase; for coke J2509, the closing price was 1,603 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton with a 5.60% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions had minor changes, and some basis and spreads changed significantly [19]. - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index on July 21 were released. Regarding the open - interest, for coking coal JM2509, long - position decreased by 8,626 lots and short - position decreased by 12,469 lots; for coke J2509, long - position increased by 358 lots and short - position increased by 74 lots [19][20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [21]. Thermal Coal - **Trend**: Stabilizing with oscillating as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic thermal coal origin quotes were provided. Regarding the open - interest, both long - position and short - position of the ZC2507 contract decreased by 0 lots [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different log contracts showed certain changes. Spot prices of various log products remained stable [26]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28].