Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum & Alumina Industry Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Rong [2] - Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Aluminum prices are showing a breakthrough trend, with the overall center of gravity trending upward. In the medium to long term, there is a bullish outlook on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and there is a certain certainty that the price will break through 21,000 this year and early next year [3]. - Alumina has temporarily formed a bottom around 2,800, but the reduction is not continuous. The short - term spot market remains weak, and the price decline has narrowed this week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from 0 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from - 105 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton. The alumina spot premium also weakened, with the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changing from 39 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changing from 94 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has narrowed [10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has increased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract has increased slightly and is at a historical high, and the trading volume has increased slightly [13]. - **Open Interest to Inventory Ratio**: The open interest to inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest to inventory ratio of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. 2. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Fabricated Products - **Bauxite**: As of October 24, the steel - linked weekly imported bauxite port inventory decreased by 971,300 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of September, the national 43 - sample enterprise bauxite inventory increased by 420,000 tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants increased. As of October 24, the steel - linked weekly Guinea port bauxite shipment volume increased by 1.5849 million tons compared with last week, and the Australian port shipment volume decreased by 588,300 tons. The Guinea and Australian sea - floating inventories both increased slightly. As of October 17, the bauxite outbound volume from Australian and Guinea ports increased slightly, and the SMM - caliber bauxite arrival volume increased significantly [23][28][29][34]. - **Alumina**: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase, with a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons. The in - plant inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and yard/on - the - way inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased. As of October 23, the national alumina inventory was 4.061 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons [44][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: According to the seasonal pattern, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a destocking cycle. As of October 16, the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 607,000 tons this week [52]. - **Fabricated Products**: This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot inventory and in - plant inventory decreased. As of September, the SMM aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil finished product inventory ratios decreased slightly, while the raw material inventory ratios increased slightly [58][61]. 3. Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In September, the domestic bauxite supply was not loose and remained stable. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In terms of provinces, the steel - linked Shanxi bauxite output increased slightly in September, while the SMM - caliber output decreased slightly. The steel - linked Henan bauxite output increased slightly, while the SMM - caliber output decreased. The steel - linked and SMM - caliber Guangxi bauxite outputs both decreased [64][67]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained basically stable. As of October 24, the national total operating alumina capacity was 97.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 600,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.862 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, remaining at a high level in recent years. The short - term alumina supply remains loose [71]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of October 16, the steel - linked weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 852,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, remaining at a high level in the past six years. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the molten aluminum ratio increased seasonally, and the aluminum ingot casting volume is expected to decline month - on - month, reducing the supply pressure [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the recycled aluminum rod output decreased by 520 tons week - on - week. The aluminum rod plant load decreased slightly, and the aluminum rod weekly output decreased by 900 tons week - on - week. The aluminum plate - strip - foil output increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 900 tons. The domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprise operating rate decreased slightly by 0.1% week - on - week. The aluminum plate - strip operating rate increased, but there are expectations of demand decline. The aluminum foil operating rate decreased, and there is a risk of weakening terminal demand. The aluminum profile operating rate increased slightly, but the photovoltaic profile was affected by the reduction of downstream component factory production. The aluminum cable operating rate increased slightly, the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat, and the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased [77][78][81][83]. 4. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Fabricated Products - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly. The steel - linked metallurgical - grade alumina profit was 135.4 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit remained at a good level. Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan alumina profits remained stable, and Guangxi alumina had better profit performance due to relatively firm cost [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remains at a high level. However, the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [97]. - **Downstream Processing**: The aluminum rod processing fee decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [98]. 5. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The alumina and SHFE aluminum import profit and loss have narrowed [107]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 14,000 tons month - on - month. The aluminum fabricated product export profit and loss showed differentiation, and the aluminum processing product export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [109][112]. - **Apparent Demand**: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [116].

投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(10.20-10.24),美豆期价涨势为主,因为中美经贸磋商及中方采购美豆希望。10月24日至 27 日中美在马来西亚举行经贸磋商、10 月底中美元首在韩国可能举行双边会晤（大豆将是议题之一)。此 外,日本拟购买美豆、印度美国即将达成双边贸易协议(印度增加从美国进口非转基因玉米与豆粕),也 有利多影响。从周Ｋ线角度,10月24日当周,美豆主力 01月合约周涨幅 2.19%,美豆粕主力 12月合约 周涨幅 4.59%。 2025 年 10月 26 日 中美少 等待国储收购, 上周(10.20-10.24),国内豆一现货主要情况:1)豆价分化:东北产区偏强、关内新豆上市跌价。 据博朗资讯,⊙ 东北部分地区大豆净粮收购价格（过４.5 筛净粮主流收购价格）报价区间 3860～3960 元 /吨，较前周上涨 40~80元/吨;② 关内部分地区大豆净粮收购价格区间 4660~4900 元/吨,较前周下跌 360～460 元/吨；③ 销区东北食用大豆销售价格（中等含包装"塔选"东北豆市场主流零售价）区间 4360~4620元/吨,较前周 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：短期反弹，PXN压缩 | 供应 | 本周PX装置变化不多，国产装置开工率85.9%（+1%）。亚洲整体负荷开工率在78.5%（+0.5%）。下周福佳大化140万吨将逐步重启，沙特 Satorp70万吨检修推迟到11月份，PTTG 54万吨10月底检修50天左右。国内大榭、恒力重整装置降负，PX开工暂未受到影响。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 新凤鸣PTA新装置近期开车。逸盛宁波220万吨降负，个别装置恢复，国产PTA负荷在78.8%（+2.1%）。PX供需略显偏紧。 | | 观点 | 需求好转成本支撑，PX单边价格短期反弹。PXN逢高空。 | | 估值 | PXN234美元/吨(-12)。PX-MX韩国FOB价差109美金（+7）。PTA加工费跌至85元/吨。 | | 策略 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for polyolefins is expected to stop falling in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. For PP, the short - term market rebounds reasonably, but in the long - term, it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. For PE, it is in a fluctuating market in the short - term [1][5][8]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Overview PP - **Supply**: This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 77.76 tons, a decrease of 2.92% from last week. Next week, the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to stay around 75.8%. - **Demand**: The average downstream industry start - up rate shows an upward trend. With the approaching of Double Eleven and the cold weather, the demand for terminal products is slightly supported. - **Viewpoint**: Although there are downward pressures, recent factors such as the rebound of oil prices and phased production cuts on the supply side lead to a short - term market rebound. In the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. - **Valuation**: The basis and monthly spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak [5][7]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is weakly fluctuating, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550; for inter - period trading, buy 05 and sell 01 in the short - term; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [7]. PE - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. In October, the maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and later the supply pressure will gradually increase. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is strong, which supports the market and helps reduce inventory. - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of crude oil prices and stable downstream demand lead to a short - term fluctuating market. - **Valuation**: The basis fluctuates, the monthly spread weakens, and the L - LL spread fluctuates and weakens, with a moderate valuation. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is range - bound, with an upper pressure of 7000, 7200 for the 01 contract and a lower support of 6850; no recommendation for inter - period and cross - variety trading [8]. 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The price difference between powder and granular materials and the price difference between copolymer and drawn materials have rebounded [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average capacity utilization rate in this period is 75.94%, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the previous period [22]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many devices are in long - term or short - term maintenance, and the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high [24]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5% [26]. - **Inventory**: The production and trader inventories have decreased. The total commercial inventory is 92.53 tons, a decrease of 6.08% compared to the previous period [32]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [34]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH production methods have declined [40]. - **Downstream Industry**: BOPP has stable start - up, increased order days, and decreased finished - product inventory, but the profit is still at a low level; the start - up of tape master rolls has increased, but the order days have decreased; the start - up and order days of plastic weaving have remained flat; the start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high; the start - up and order days of CPP have increased [42][50][53][58][61]. 3. Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL spread fluctuates and declines, and the HD - LL spread fluctuates and rises. The inventory of HDPE and LDPE in social sample warehouses has decreased, while that of LLDPE has increased [66][69]. - **Start - up and Production**: The start - up rate and production have decreased. The capacity utilization rate is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period, and the production this week is 64.81 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week [71][73]. - **Maintenance**: The maintenance loss in October has decreased compared to September [74]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [75]. - **Inventory**: The production and social inventories have decreased. The sample inventory of producers is 51.46 tons, a decrease of 2.81% compared to the previous period [80]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [81]. - **Profit**: The profit of the oil - based production device has declined [87]. - **Downstream Industry**: The start - up and order days of agricultural films and packaging films have increased; the start - up rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [89][91][92].

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年10月26日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：宏观与微观阶段性共振，价格走势偏强 强弱分析：偏强，价格区间：85000-90000元/吨 ◆ 风险点：特朗普关税政策可能引发经济进入衰退周期。 COMEX铜价高于LME价格350美元/吨左右 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 美元/吨 COMEX铜价 ...

动力煤产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 林小春 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 动力煤基本面数据 动力煤坑口报价及港口现货价格涨幅明显，价格持续走强 资料来源 Wind 、Mysteel iFind国泰君安期货研究所 ： 资料来源： Wind 、Mysteel、iFind、国泰君安期货研究所 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5500) 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5000) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 元/吨 大同南郊动力煤-5500-车板含税价 鄂尔多斯-电煤-5500-坑口含税价 榆林烟煤末-6000-坑口含税价 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 ...

工业硅供给端,周度行业库存去库。据咨询商统计,本周内蒙地区开工减少,甘肃地区开工抬升,整体 周产环增。西北地区,新疆工厂前期复产体量,亦会对供应构成增量。此外，西南地区预计将在10月底逐 步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500元/吨（对标 SI2512 合约）,此亦对盘面上 方空间构成明显压制。月度来看,10月份上游环节新疆工厂复产、西南减产偏少,整体 10月份月产将环比 增加;预计10月工业硅产量(原生)将达到44万吨。库存来看,本周期货仓单环比上周小幅减少 0.9万吨。 SMM 统计本周社会库存去库 0.3万吨,厂库库存去库 0.03万吨,整体行业库存去库 0.33万吨,后续关注 期货仓单的注册情况。 2025 年 10月 26 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 张 航 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面价格偏强震荡,现货价格下跌;多晶硅盘面震荡偏弱,现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面呈偏强运行,短期市场消息提振市场情绪,周五收于 8920元/吨。 现货市场价格有所下跌，SMN 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比-50 ...

截至 10 月 24 日当周，ICE 棉花整体来说维持低位震荡走势，美国农业部继续停发数据和报告，ICE 棉花依然缺乏基本面指引，也缺乏上涨驱动，但是在商业买盘和原油上涨的影响下，ICE 棉花也没有进一 步下跌，总体来说围绕 64 美分/磅窄幅波动。 国内棉花期货继续反弹势头，一方面新疆籽棉价格和郑棉期货共振反弹，新棉成本上升对郑棉期货的 支撑更强了，另一方面，整体商品市场反弹也从情绪上支撑郑棉期货。短期来看，新棉大量上市和轧花厂 套保意愿较强将继续限制郑棉期货的反弹动能，不过，高基差和绝对价格相对不高将对郑棉期货构成支 撑。所以，从基本面来看，认为郑棉期货短期内将维持窄幅震荡走势，短期内市场波动可能主要还是来自 于当前复杂的国际经贸形势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 26 日 棉花：注意外部市场因素的影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 期货研究 （正文） 1. 行情数据 表 1:棉花、棉纱期货数据 | | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a view that the medium - term general direction of the Treasury bond futures market is oscillating with a bearish bias [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts had a full - week pullback, with short - end prices relatively stagnant and long - end prices fluctuating significantly. The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan proposal improved the sentiment in the equity market, which pressured the bond market [5]. - The Treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated pattern of short - end pressure and long - end oscillation, and the flattening trend of the yield curve continued. The short - end was supported by the low - cost short - term funds, while the long - end was restricted by the expectation of economic data improvement, with limited actual fluctuations. Future fiscal and monetary policy signals should be focused on [7]. - A series of important economic data were released this week. The economy in the first three quarters laid a good foundation for achieving the annual target, and the single - quarter growth rate in Q3 met expectations. With recent policies such as 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments and 500 billion yuan in carried - forward local bond quotas, the possibility of specific stimulus policies being introduced in 2025 is expected to be low [5]. - The communiqué of the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee was released. The 15th Five - Year Plan continued the long - term per - capita GDP target mentioned in the 3rd Plenary Session and the 20th CPC National Congress, with adjustments in the order and reinforcement of content according to the actual economic and social development situation [5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - No specific content provided other than the title and source information [11][12]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.03%, foreign capital decreased by 3.11%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 2.93%. In terms of weekly change, private funds increased by 6.48%, foreign capital decreased by 2.34%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.65% [14].

➢ 焦煤现货交投氛围较为浓厚，流拍率显著较低，现货资源略显紧俏。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地或受安监等因素影响，整体产量回升节奏相对偏缓；另一方面焦炭供给未发生显著边际增长。 ◆ 2、需求： 煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 国内四中全会顺利召开，对外公报发布后，市场仍预期或有具体相关政策的落地；另一方面，中美贸易博弈局势的走向或将在下 周迎来一定关键性时间，市场风偏当前相对乐观。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 焦煤端偏紧的基本面现实进一步在数据上有所印证，现货价格表现偏强，叠加相对偏暖的宏观情绪，预计煤焦板块短期或延续 偏强震荡态势。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | --- | --- | --- | | FW原煤848（-6.88） | 独立焦化厂 ...