2025年08月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需现实拖累，原料成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：智利出口回升，关注矿证续期情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,070 | 160 | -650 | -2,300 | 530 | -3,560 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,935 | -25 | 15 | 35 | 295 | 200 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 87,840 | 3,022 | -65, ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4][7] - Rebar: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Hot - rolled coil: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Ferrosilicon: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Coke: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Coking coal: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][20] Core Views - The report provides the latest price, trading volume, position, and other fundamental data for various black - series commodities, along with their price changes and trend intensities [6][9][13] - It also includes macro and industry news such as manufacturing PMI data, steel production data, and price policy announcements [6][10][11] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Changes**: The futures price closed at 794.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day; the position decreased by 26,208 lots to 358,293 lots. Among the imported ores, PB (61.5%) dropped 4 yuan to 776 yuan/ton, and the super - special (56.5%) dropped 2 yuan to 650 yuan/ton. The domestic ores remained stable [6] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [6] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, showing a relatively bearish trend [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Changes**: The RB2510 futures of rebar closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.75%; the HC2510 futures of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,451 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.41%. The spot prices of rebar in major cities increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton, while most of the spot prices of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [9] - **Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron decreased by 4.5%, and steel products increased by 0.5%. According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 31, the output of rebar decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 5.3 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 15.39 tons [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Changes**: The silicon iron 2509 futures closed at 5,908 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan; the silicon manganese 2509 futures closed at 6,096 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. The spot price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan to 5,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of silicon manganese increased by 50 yuan to 5,850 yuan/ton [13] - **Industry News**: On August 6, the price of silicon iron 72 in some regions changed, and UMK announced a 0.15 - dollar increase in the manganese ore quotation for September [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, showing a relatively bullish trend [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Changes**: The JM2509 futures of coking coal closed at 1,074 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan or 3.8%; the J2509 futures of coke closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.6%. The spot price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased by 105 yuan to 1,395 yuan/ton [17] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [18] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [19] Logs - **Price Changes**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 832.5 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 52.3%. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: With repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [2][4] - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal will adjust and fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: One - way auctions have started, and the market will fluctuate [2][10] - Corn: It will run weakly [2][13] - Sugar: It will trade in a narrow range [2][16] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][21] - Eggs: Market sentiment has been realized [2][27] - Live pigs: Near - term spot pressure persists [2][29] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2][35] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%, and night - session closing price was 9,006 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.40%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,406 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.74%, and night - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.19% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% [5][7] - **Trend intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and night - session closing price was 4124 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3026 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and night - session closing price was 3013 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46% [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On August 6, CBOT soybeans closed lower, following the decline in the soybean meal market. The US soybean growing area has good weather conditions. The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. On August 8, 10:30, CNGC plans to auction 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans [10][12] - **Trend intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental data**: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price decreased by 10 yuan/ton. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,259 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35% [13] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn port prices decreased, and prices in other regions also showed certain changes [14] - **Trend intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 16.04 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05. The mainstream spot price was 5970 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 [16] - **Macro and industry news**: Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - term average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16] - **Trend intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,850 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 13830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14% [21] - **Macro and industry news**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the cotton yarn market is stable. ICE cotton futures first rose and then fell [22] - **Trend intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 0.99%. Egg 2601's closing price was 3,624 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 0.11% [27] - **Trend intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [27] Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: Henan's spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton with a decline of 100. The closing price of live pig 2509 was 13,810 yuan/ton with a decline of 75 [31] - **Trend intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [32] - **Market logic**: The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the price increase was less than expected. The market pressure is large, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK510's closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22% [35] - **Spot market focus**: New peanuts in some areas are about to be listed, and the price of old peanuts is stable [36] - **Trend intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]

2025 年 8 月 7 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI9 原油期货收跌 0.81 美元/桶，跌幅 1.24%，报 64.35 美元/桶；布伦特 10 月原油期货收跌 0.75 美元/桶，跌幅 1.11%，报 66.89 美元/桶；SC2509 原油期货收跌 6.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 498.00 元/桶。 4. 白宫官员：对俄罗斯的二级制裁预计将于周五实施。 7. 美国至 8 月 1 日当周 EIA 俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 45.3 万桶，前值 69 万桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油：多单加空远月保护，关注美对俄能源制 （以上资讯来源于金十数据） 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：0 裁 商 品 研 究 1. 美国总统特朗普：汽油价格将低于每加仑 2 美元。与泽连斯基和普京举行峰会的可能性较大， 目前尚未确定具体地点。 2. 白宫：俄罗斯曾表示希望与特朗普会面；特朗普愿意与普京和泽连斯基会面。 3. 阿联酋国家石油公司（ADNOC）将 9 月份穆尔班原油官方售价定为每桶 7 ...

2025 年 08 月 07 日 对二甲苯：供需压力增加，趋势偏弱 PTA：加工费低位，负荷计划外下降，月差反弹 MEG：煤炭价格回暖带动反弹，多 MEG 空 PTA/PX 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6794 | 4724 | 4414 | 6414 | 505.9 | | 涨跌 | 6734 | 42 | 15 | 32 | -2.9 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.89% | 0.90% | 0.34% | 0.50% | -0.57% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF9-1 | SC9-10 | | 昨日收盘价 | 50 | -30 | -21 | -74 | 4.9 | | 前日收盘价 | 28 | -40 | -27 | -74 | 5.2 | | 涨跌 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 0 | -0.3 | | 现货 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). Overall, most commodities are expected to show neutral or weak trends, with some having specific trading strategies such as spreads trading and long - short combinations [2][9][10]. Summaries by Commodities PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. Hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads. PTA plant out - of - plan maintenance will lead to weaker PX demand [2][9]. - **PTA**: Spot supply is sufficient, and the basis weakens. Go long on spreads at low levels, and the unilateral trend is weak. The current supply - demand is weak, and the unilateral price is driven downward [2][9]. - **MEG**: Coal prices support the price. Go long on spreads at low levels, and long MEG short PTA. Unilateral price is oscillating strongly. Overseas device maintenance may reduce imports in September [2][10]. Synthetic Rubber - Short - term oscillating. The departure of speculative funds and the weakening of the commodity index have led to a decline. In the medium - term, it is supported by anti - involution policies and has a neutral fundamental situation [11][13]. Asphalt - Consolidating after a decline. This week, the shipment of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. The short - term trend is neutral [15][30]. LLDPE - The trend is under pressure. The anti - involution policy has little impact. Supply pressure increases in the third quarter, although there may be a phased relief in September. Demand support is weak [31][32]. PP - Spot prices rose in some areas, but trading was light. The short - term trend is neutral, affected by the overall commodity market sentiment [35][36]. Caustic Soda - Treat the peak - season contracts bullishly. Currently in the off - season, the price increase is limited, but the cost is supported. In the long - term, the peak - season demand is expected [38][40]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Domestic float glass prices decreased slightly, affected by weather and inventory. The short - term trend is neutral [41][42]. Methanol - Oscillating under pressure. The short - term is affected by the departure of speculative funds, and the medium - term is affected by anti - involution policies and port unloading conditions [44][48]. Urea - Bullish factors are less than expected, and it returns to an oscillating pattern. The daily output increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term is affected by export information, and the medium - term is oscillating [49][51]. Styrene - Compress the profit and pay attention to taking profits. It is in a high - output, high - profit, and high - inventory pattern, and is mainly a short - allocation. Focus on compressing the profit position [52][53]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid. The short - term market is expected to be stable [55][56]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Cost support is weak. - **Propylene**: Short - term weak oscillation. The PDH and MTBE operating rates decreased, and the alkylation operating rate increased [58][59]. PVC - Range - bound oscillation. The anti - involution policy has little impact. The industry profit has expanded, but the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [71][72]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session strengthened slightly, and the short - term is oscillating. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak in the short - term compared to high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [75]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The fundamental situation remains weak. Hold short positions in the 2510 contract and add short positions at high prices. The shipping company's freight rates are expected to decline, and the market FAK freight rate center may be between 2500 - 2600 US dollars/FEU at the end of August [77][86].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Anti-Involution Policy Disturbs Prices, Fundamentals Determine Direction - Henan Region Lead-Zinc Research Report" [1] - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [2] Group 2: Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy indirectly boosts zinc prices by stimulating the sentiment of the black commodities market. However, most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and await specific follow-up measures [3][6] - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Supply pressure is increasing, and the surplus logic may become more apparent [3][9] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters [3][12] - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, but the upcoming peak consumption season may support demand. Lead smelters rely on by-products to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [3][14] Group 3: Impact of "Anti-Involution" Policy on Zinc - The "anti-involution" policy aims to clear out backward and ineffective production capacity, but it has no substantial impact on the zinc industry's fundamentals. In the short term, it indirectly boosts zinc prices by supporting steel prices and stimulating the restocking willingness of galvanizing enterprises [6] - Most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and have no extensive production plans [3][6] Group 4: Zinc Industry Chain Analysis - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Since the third quarter of last year, TC processing fees have rebounded from a low level, and the restart of high-cost mines has led to an increase in zinc concentrate supply [3][9] - Refineries and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a medium level in history. After the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in the first half of the year, the resumption of production and new project launches have increased supply pressure [3][9] - The surplus logic may become more apparent and be reflected in the accumulation of social inventories [3][9] Group 5: Zinc Smelter Profit Analysis - Zinc smelter profits are mainly calculated through processing costs, the 20/80 split, and by-product comprehensive returns. Different smelters have significant cost differences due to different raw material supply methods [11] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters. Sulfuric acid prices have been high, and small metal prices have been strong [3][12] - Many smelters are considering building new recycling production lines to increase the recycling and utilization of small metals [12] Group 6: Lead Industry Analysis - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, which restricts the supply of waste batteries. However, with the approaching peak consumption season of lead batteries, demand may increase [14] - Currently, demand remains good, and the proportion of long-term orders is stable. Lead smelters rely on by-products such as gold and silver to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [14] Group 7: Research Enterprise Details Enterprise A - Production: A lead comprehensive smelting enterprise with a relatively high operating rate. It relies on by-product profits to maintain production due to cost inversion [18] - Raw Materials: Purchases oxidized lead ore containing gold and silver from Inner Mongolia, etc. Non-lead concentrate raw materials include antimony-containing crude lead, lead-containing slag, copper soot, lead mud, etc. Raw material inventory can support one month of production [18] - Product Sales: Finished product inventory is generally low, but there is some inventory this year, all sold through long-term contracts to large battery enterprises [18] Enterprise B - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with stable operation of the primary smelter. Sulfuric acid production is about 900 tons per day, and the domestic downstream fertilizer demand and export orders are good [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic lead concentrate (about 50%), imports (about 30%), and the rest is recycled. Raw material inventory is about 20 days [19] - Product Sales: There is basically no finished product inventory, and products are mainly sold through long-term contracts. 10,000 tons of crude lead are directly sold to large smelters in Henan, and electrolytic lead is sold to downstream battery enterprises such as Tianneng [19] Enterprise C - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise operating at full capacity. It relies on by-product comprehensive returns to increase profits, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,500 tons per day and small metal production of about 100 - 150 tons per month [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic and imported raw materials. Lead ore supply is tight, while zinc ore supply is relatively abundant [19][20] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot inventory is 4,000 - 5,000 tons, mainly sold through long-term contracts. Lead ingots have no inventory and are mainly sold to traders. Zinc alloy customers are mainly in the automotive and hardware industries in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [19][21] Enterprise D - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with normal production scheduling. Annual mid-year maintenance has been completed [22] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate through long-term contracts [22] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot + alloy inventory is about 5,000 tons, and lead ingots have no inventory. Customers are mainly in Shandong, Tianjin, Hebei, etc. Pricing is under pressure due to strong downstream customers [22] Enterprise E - Production: A zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise producing 1 and 0 zinc, mainly 0 zinc. By-product comprehensive returns are good, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,000 tons per day and low production costs [23] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate, considering grade and quality [23] - Product Sales: Inventory is at a low level [24]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the delivery of Treasury bond futures, specifically analyzing the historical delivery situation and the potential delivery trends of the 2509 contract, while also introducing the concept, process, benefits of Treasury bond futures delivery, and the advantages of Guotai Junan Futures in delivery [2][6][22] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The historical delivery volume and delivery rate of Treasury bond futures have been rising, and the 2509 contract has a high position - holding volume and significant arbitrage opportunities, indicating that the delivery volume may remain high. However, the new VAT policy may change the delivery logic and expectations, potentially leading to a lower - than - expected delivery volume [2] - The final delivery situation of the 2509 contract needs to be comprehensively considered from aspects such as IRR level, cash - bond liquidity, short - and long - term interest rate strength, futures position - holding volume, combined with the delivery willingness of the short side and the bond - taking willingness of the long side [20] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Historical Delivery Situation and 2509 Delivery Highlights 3.1.1 Historical Delivery Situation - From 2303 to 2506, the average position - holding volume of four Treasury bond futures contracts (except TS) showed an upward trend. The delivery volume and delivery rate of some contracts, such as T2506 and TF2506, reached historical highs. The delivery time characteristics of different varieties in the 2506 contract vary [6][8] - In terms of positive arbitrage opportunities, TS2506 and TF2506 had relatively more positive arbitrage opportunities, leading to stronger short - side delivery willingness. T2506 and TL2506 had fewer positive arbitrage opportunities but still had some short - side delivery due to such opportunities [10] - From the long - side perspective, in the two months before the 2506 delivery, the short - end was strong and the long - end was weak. The long - side's bond - taking attitude varied depending on the liquidity of the delivery bonds [15] 3.1.2 2509 Contract Delivery Situation Analysis - The average IRR levels of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 in the past month are all higher than the R007 average level, indicating positive arbitrage space. The position - holding volume of the 2509 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Without considering the VAT impact, the delivery volume and delivery rate of the 2509 contract may reach historical highs [19] - After the VAT policy change, new bonds will be subject to VAT, making old bonds more popular. The short - side's delivery willingness may decrease, while the long - side's bond - taking willingness may increase, which may drive the futures price up and the intraday IRR to rise [19] 3.1.3 Conclusion - The final delivery situation of the 2509 contract needs comprehensive consideration. Based on the previous contracts, the delivery volume and delivery rate of the 2509 contract may remain high, but the VAT policy may cause the delivery volume and rate to be lower than expected [20] 3.2 Concept and Basic Process of Treasury Bond Futures Delivery - Treasury bond futures delivery is the process of fulfilling the contract through the transfer of physical bonds at the contract's expiration. It uses a physical delivery system to ensure the convergence of futures and spot prices. The main participants include the short side, the long side, the exchange, and the settlement institution [22] - The delivery months are March, June, September, and December, and the last trading day is the second Friday of the contract month. The delivery includes rolling delivery and concentrated delivery, and there are two delivery modes: general mode and DVP mode [22][23] 3.3 Benefits of Treasury Bond Futures Delivery - For the short side: It can lock in the selling price for positive arbitrage investors, eliminate basis risk for institutions hedging bond portfolios, provide a selling channel for illiquid bonds, and offer time and bond - type selection rights [24] - For the long side: It can ensure the receipt of qualified bonds, obtain cost - effective CTD bonds, gain interest - rate spread benefits in a loose - money environment, and help obtain old bonds not subject to VAT [25] 3.4 Advantages of Guotai Junan Futures in Delivery - Guotai Junan was the first member to handle Treasury bond delivery for clients after the listing of Treasury bond futures. In the first half of 2025, its Treasury bond delivery volume accounted for 23.12% of the market, ranking among the top in the industry [26] - It provides a professional institutional service platform with full - process electronic CFFEX business, no need for stamping, and real - time progress tracking [26] - It offers total - to - total services, including pre - confirming bond account status, sending delivery calendar reminders, and confirming bond settlement status [26] - It has in - depth experience in serving clients' Treasury bond collateral business and has won relevant honorary awards from China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. for five consecutive years [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 6, 2025, and also gives the expected trend of some futures in August 2025. It also provides macro - news, commodity - related information, and the performance of various futures on August 5, 2025 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Performance on August 5, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly higher and rising, with varying degrees of increase [14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract falling [37]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, etc. showed different trends of rising or falling, with some showing weak rebounds and some showing downward pressure [42][48][52]. 2. Futures Market Forecast on August 6, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4100 and 4122 points, and support levels at 4080 and 4060 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year T2509 and 30 - year TL2509 are expected to be strongly volatile [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, and polycrystalline silicon are expected to be strongly volatile; copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as glass, soda ash, etc. are expected to be weakly volatile; industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][3]. 3. Futures Market Forecast in August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM are all expected to be strongly volatile [18][19]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold and silver are expected to be strongly and widely volatile; copper, aluminum, and iron ore are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; rebar is expected to be weakly and widely volatile; crude oil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [42][52][77][85]. 4. Macro - News - China is implementing a series of policies, including free pre - school education, financial support for new industrialization, and health - environment promotion [8]. - The US trade deficit has shrunk, and economic data such as the ISM non - manufacturing index are mixed; Japan may raise interest rates; the eurozone's comprehensive PMI has rebounded slightly [9][10][11]. 5. Commodity - Related Information - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has issued an initiative for the photovoltaic industry; the trading volume and turnover of the domestic futures market in July have increased significantly [11]. - On August 5, international oil prices fell, precious metals rose, and base metals showed mixed trends [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold: Non-farm payroll data weakened [2] - Silver: Small rebound [2] - Copper: LME inventory increased, prices under pressure [2] - Zinc: Weak and volatile [2] - Lead: Inventory decreased, prices supported [2] - Tin: Range-bound [2] - Aluminum: Range-bound; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Intensified long-short game, narrow range for nickel prices [2] - Stainless steel: Constrained by supply-demand reality, raw material costs limit downside [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Gold T+D were 782.50 and 779.92 respectively, with daily increases of 0.14% and 0.56%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T+D were 9075 and 9052 respectively, with daily increases of 0.40% and 0.60% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day [5]. - **ETF and Inventory**: SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 1 to 955.94, and SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 23 to 15,044.48. Inventory changes were also observed in Shanghai and Comex [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a neutral and slightly positive outlook [8]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,580, up 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 78070, down 0.65%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,635, down 0.76% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk changed compared to the previous day [10]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: LME copper inventory increased by 14,275 to 153,850, and various spreads also changed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22380, up 0.56%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2754, up 0.90% [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and LME Zinc changed compared to the previous day [13]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels of zinc also showed different changes [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16775, up 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1963.5, down 0.53% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Lead main contract and LME Lead changed compared to the previous day [17]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels of lead changed, with inventory decreasing [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 267,490, up 0.38%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,300, up 0.53% [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract and LME Tin changed compared to the previous day [20]. - **Inventory and Spreads**: Inventory of Shanghai and LME tin decreased, and various spreads also changed [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [26]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20560, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3227. The cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in the futures market changed compared to the previous day [27]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: Various spreads and inventory levels in the aluminum industry chain showed different changes [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,910, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,960 [31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Nickel and stainless - steel main contracts changed compared to the previous day [31]. - **Industry News**: There were various industry news related to nickel, such as production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [31][33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35]