风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 利多：欧洲北部及中部寒冷天气持续推高取暖需求，LNG区域竞争加剧,TTF偏 核心 强运行。 逻辑 利空:暂无新增。 国泰君安期货 欧盟碳币场行情简报 (2026年第16期) CIUCTAI JUNAN FUT 发布日期:2026-01-26 关税风暴暂缓,EUA回归基本面 最新 行情 1、一级：拍卖价格87.51欧元/吨(1.11%)， 投标覆盖比2.42: 2、二级：EUA期货结算价88.4欧元/吨(-0.08%)，成交2.77万手(-2.39)。 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 策略 信号强度:1 (0为空仓,土1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 ☆ 欲获取实时研究产品, 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 请咨询对口销售。 联系电话:021-33037830 車要声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问 权限。若给您造成不便，鼓清凉解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者,请勿阔读、订阅或接收任 ...

席君安朝贸客户中的专业投资者，请勿润强、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何规资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因素收入收到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 2026/1/26 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

1. Market Overview - The trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8,107,246.6, a decrease of 0.35% from last week; the open interest was 8,979,179, a flat compared to last week [5]. - The trading volume of agricultural products was 1,293,877.0, a decrease of 0.63% from last week; the open interest was 3,022,708, a slight decrease of 0.0% [5]. - The trading volume of energy and chemical products was 3,424,908.4, a decrease of 0.85% from last week; the open interest was 3,183,176, a decrease of 0.01% [5]. - The trading volume of black commodities was 406,427.0, a decrease of 0.53% from last week; the open interest was 657,982, a decrease of 0.13% [5]. - The trading volume of precious metals was 1,073,667.6, an increase of 1.41% from last week; the open interest was 534,522, a decrease of 0.03% [5]. - The trading volume of non - ferrous metals and new energy was 1,908,366.6, an increase of 0.41% from last week; the open interest was 1,580,791, an increase of 0.15% [5]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the flat - volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various commodity options, such as the flat - volatility of corn options was 9.56% with a 60 - day quantile of 43.33%, and the Skew was 7.15% with a 60 - day quantile of 51.67% [15]. 2.2 - 2.61 Specific Commodity Options - For each of the 61 specific commodity options (including corn, soybean meal, etc.), the report details data such as closing prices, trading volume (including call and put trading volume, total trading volume, and volume PCR), open interest (including call and put open interest, total open interest, and open interest PCR), flat - volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew [16 - 75].

2026 年 1 月 26 日 股指期货 IC 和 IM 将震荡偏强 黄金、白银、锡期货价格再 创历史新高 黄金、白银、铂、钯、锡、碳酸锂、燃料油 期货将震荡偏强 丁二烯期货将偏强宽幅震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 、 期 货 行 情 前 瞻 研 究 期货研究 | 热卷 | HC2605 | 震荡整理 | 3318 | 和 | 3329 | 元/吨 | 3297 和 | 3289 | 元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 对二甲苯：单边趋势偏强 PTA：单边趋势偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 PX：23 日尾盘石脑油价格仍然僵持，2 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 561 美元/吨 CFR 附近；PX 价格上涨，一 单 3 月现货在 921 成交，尾盘 3 月在 919/928 商谈，4 月在 925/942 商谈，3/4 在-6/0 商谈，1 月 23 日 PX 收 在 923 美元/吨 CFR，较昨日上涨 16 美元/吨。1 月 23 日市场现货商谈尚可，浮动价格 3 月在-6 附近有成交， 4 月在-3~-4 附近成交商谈。 Platts 公司于 1 月 23 日评估亚洲对二甲苯 CFR Unv1/中国和 FOB 韩国标志分别为 922.67 美元/公吨和 901.67 美元/吨，均较日上涨 16 美元/吨。 Platts 的数据显示，这些价格是自 2024 年 10 月 7 日以来的最高水平，当时评估价为每吨 928 美元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international geopolitical situation is rapidly changing, with the US - EU relationship facing a significant rift. Europe is promoting "technological sovereignty" and "sovereign cloud" strategies to reduce dependence on US tech giants, which may reshape the trans - Atlantic digital trade pattern [6]. - In the futures market, the "spring rally" in the stock index futures is ongoing, with positive policy expectations, a rising RMB exchange rate, and a strengthened re - inflation expectation. However, the withdrawal of rescue funds has led to a significant divergence in the market, which is expected to converge later [7][8]. - For various commodities, their trends are affected by different factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, fuel oil prices are influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand fundamentals; precious metals like gold and silver are showing strong trends; base metals such as copper and zinc are also affected by macro - economic data and industry news [10][15][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Situation - The US - EU relationship has deeply split due to issues like Greenland. Europe is promoting "technological sovereignty" and "sovereign cloud" strategies to reduce dependence on US tech giants, which account for 83% of the European market [6]. Stock Index Futures - The "spring rally" is in progress, with positive policy expectations, a rising RMB exchange rate, and a strengthened re - inflation expectation. The withdrawal of rescue funds has led to a significant divergence in the market, which is expected to converge later. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the appointment of the next Fed chairman [7][8]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and silver is approaching 100. Their trends are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and exchange - rate fluctuations [15]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The price is strengthening due to increased disturbances in copper mines. The macro - economic data of the US and the EU, as well as industry news such as strikes and production cuts, have an impact on the copper market [19]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly, influenced by factors such as inventory changes and macro - economic data [22]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [25]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating strongly, with significant increases in both futures and spot prices [29]. - **Aluminum**: It is oscillating strongly, while alumina is consolidating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [32]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is rising strongly, and palladium should be vigilant about the supplementary increase momentum [34]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The situation in Indonesia is uncertain, affecting the nickel and stainless - steel markets. The price of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron prices [39]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is oscillating at a high level, supported by strong current fundamentals [45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is oscillating strongly due to upstream factory production cuts, and attention should be paid to the spot trading situation of polysilicon [50]. - **Steel Products**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are oscillating widely due to sector sentiment resonance [53]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are oscillating widely due to sector sentiment resonance [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are oscillating within a range, affected by industry and capital factors [61][62]. - **Power Coal**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is fluctuating narrowly in the short term [66]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: They have a strong unilateral trend, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, processing fees, and market sentiment [68][74][75][76]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost support [78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is running strongly, but attention should be paid to marginal valuation pressure [82]. - **LLDPE and PP**: Their trends are weak, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment [85][88]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating at a low level, affected by factors such as cost decline and supply - demand collapse [91]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as downstream demand and inventory pressure [96]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, and the market demand is coming to an end [103]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating with support, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations [107]. - **Urea**: The price center is slowly rising, affected by factors such as market sentiment and supply - demand relationships [112]. - **Styrene**: It is oscillating strongly, but attention should be paid to the high - inventory situation and the restart of parking devices [115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, and the price is weakly stable and oscillating [118]. - **LPG and Propylene**: They are running strongly in the short term, affected by factors such as geopolitical disturbances and supply - demand relationships [123]. - **PVC**: It is oscillating within a range, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and market sentiment [133]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is rising strongly, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues its upward trend [136]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market, and short positions in the 04 contract should be gradually reduced for observation, while short positions in the 10 contract can be held as appropriate [138]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They have a strong short - term trend, affected by factors such as raw material prices and market sentiment [149]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost - profit situations [152]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as inventory changes and market sentiment [156]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is oscillating strongly in the short term, and the oil - meal ratio of soybean oil is rising [159]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal may follow the oscillation of US soybeans, and the spot price of soybeans is stable with a rebound in the futures market [164]. - **Corn**: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and price fluctuations [167]. - **Sugar**: It is consolidating at a low level, affected by factors such as global supply - demand relationships and import policies [171]. - **Cotton**: It is oscillating strongly, affected by factors such as domestic and international supply - demand relationships and export data [176]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and feed prices [181]. - **Hogs**: After the demand expectation for the Laba Festival is fulfilled, attention should be paid to the supply contradiction [184]. - **Peanuts**: It is oscillating, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and spot prices [188].

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 铝：偏强震荡 氧化铝：底部盘整 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 美国 1 月标普全球制造业、服务业 PMI 均扩张，但略低于预期。美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 略高 于 12 月，服务业 PMI 持平于 12 月，不过均小幅低于预期。美国商业活动在 1 月仍保持增长，但增速相较 2025 年下半年常见的扩张速度明显偏弱。制造业增长加快并超过服务业，但制造业和服务业的潜在订单增 长近期均有所放缓。（华尔街见闻） | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24290 | 235 | 365 | 2370 | 3610 | | | 沪铝主力合 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 铂：上涨势头猛烈 钯：警惕补涨动能 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 685. 90 | | 8. 21% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 681. 50 | | 9.14% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2773. 20 | | 5.56% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2704. 30 | | 2. 70% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 497. 95 | | 2. 94% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货锂金 | 464. 00 | | 6.18% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 2, 048. 70 | | 8. 11% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 2.022.94 | | 6. 25% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日 ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：铜矿扰动增加，价格走强 | 4 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 9 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：底部盘整 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：上涨势头猛烈 | 12 | | 钯：警惕补涨动能 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | | | 期指：震荡偏强，关注政策 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | | maolei@gtht.com | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4702.5 | ↓0.45 | | 7556.2 | | | | | | IF2602 | 4704 | ↓0.34 | 1.5 | 407.7 | 28815 | ↑7684 | 42005 | ↑3960 | | IF2603 | 4709.2 | ↓0.15 | 6.7 | 1196 | 84474 | ↑12394 | 173887 | ↓417 | | IF2606 | 4687.6 | ↑0.15 | -14.9 | 291.4 | 20706 | ↑ ...