Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene, Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX, PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip, Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea, PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market overall shows a complex situation with different products having varying supply - demand dynamics and price trends, some being weak, some in a state of multi - empty game, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts oscillated downward, breaking previous lows. Due to the restart of northern propylene plants, supply pressure increased, and market bearish sentiment rose. There is a long - short game between terminal enterprises' raw material replenishment demand and upstream capacity release, showing an overall weak oscillation [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts closed slightly lower. For polyethylene, supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance decreases and ship cargoes arrive. The demand support from the market is limited as only the agricultural film industry is in the peak season, and other downstream industries are cautious. For polypropylene, supply is expected to increase as the intensity of plant maintenance is expected to weaken. Demand is weak as most enterprises have meager profits and are cautious in procurement [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices continued to be weak. Although the actual fundamentals are okay with a decline in port inventory, the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3] - Styrene futures main contracts closed lower. Although there is an expected increase in pre - holiday market stocking, new device production release will lead to an increase in supply, and the increase in supply is greater than that in demand, so the price trend is weak [3] Polyester - PX supply - demand strong expectations are weakened, and valuation is under pressure due to postponed plant maintenance, slow increase in polyester load, and weak downstream weaving data. PTA industry profit is still poor, and the repair space of processing margin is limited. There is an expected pre - holiday downstream stocking for polyester yarn, which may relieve polyester inventory [4] - Ethylene glycol returns to the bottom of the range. Although the actual supply pressure is not large, the expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the commissioning dynamics of two new devices [4] - Short fiber futures prices declined. With limited new capacity this year, high load, and stable - to - decreasing inventory, the peak - season demand recovery boosts the industry expectation. It is recommended to allocate more in the near - month contract and enter the long - spread position at low prices [4] - Bottle chip operating rate declined slightly, with a slight reduction in inventory, a recovery in basis, and a slight repair in processing margin. However, over - capacity is a long - term pressure, and the repair space of processing margin is limited [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts continued to be weak. Although pre - holiday downstream stocking demand provides some support, high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the upward space of the market. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas plant gas restrictions [5] - Urea futures prices oscillated at a low level. Domestic daily production continued to increase, and the overall demand is still less than supply, with continuous inventory accumulation in production enterprises. The market may continue to be under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern with large inventory pressure. New device production will increase supply, and although downstream industries have a slight increase in pre - holiday replenishment, the industry continues to accumulate inventory, showing a weak oscillation trend [6] - Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Currently, it is in a weak reality pattern in Shandong, but there may be pre - stocking demand before the downstream alumina production, so the 2510 - 2601 spread long - spread position may continue to widen [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash industry has an over - supply pattern. With the earlier - than - expected ignition of Yuanxing's 4th row of boilers, supply pressure will continue. Although there was an increase in heavy soda demand driven by the photovoltaic industry before, it is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to short at high positions with caution near the cost [7] - Glass has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. Although the industry inventory has declined, the improvement in processing orders is insufficient. There is a game between weak reality and low - valuation macro - level benefits, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and look for long opportunities near the cost later [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market continues to rebound, but the poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The demand expectation is pessimistic, which restricts the upward space [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation. The supply has declined from the high level, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal. The inventory has increased, and there is still a pre - holiday restocking demand [3] - The coke price is relatively firm, with a small premium on the trading floor. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [4] - The coking coal price is relatively firm, with a premium on the trading floor. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [6] - The silicon manganese price has a good upward repair, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [7] - The ferrosilicon price has a good upward repair, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand has recovered, production has declined, and inventory has slightly decreased. The hot - rolled coil's demand has declined, production has increased, and inventory has re - accumulated. The hot - metal production remains high, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain has eased, but the poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption [2] - The real - estate investment decline has widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have continued to slow down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the steel export remains high [2] - The trading floor continues to rebound under the support of "anti - involution" and the Fed's interest - rate cut, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space, and the rhythm is still volatile [2] Iron Ore - The global iron - ore shipment has declined from the high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. The shipment from Australia and that to China has decreased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a relatively high level this year [3] - The steel mills' willingness to actively cut production is still insufficient. The short - term high - level hot metal continues to support the iron - ore demand. The steel mills' imported - ore inventory has increased significantly, and there is still a certain pre - holiday restocking demand [3] - The Fed's interest - rate cut overseas meets market expectations, and the expectation of domestic policy release has increased. It is expected that the short - term market speculation sentiment still exists, and the iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The third round of price cut in the coking industry is still expected, and some coking plants have started the first round of price increase, with intensified game [4] - The coking profit is average, the daily production has slightly decreased, and the overall coke inventory has increased. The traders' purchasing willingness has recovered due to the rising trading - floor price [4] - The carbon - element supply is abundant, the downstream hot - metal production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. Coupled with the pre - National - Day restocking sentiment, the price is relatively firm, and the coke trading floor has a small premium. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal mine production has slightly increased. The pre - National - Day restocking sentiment is strong, the spot auction transactions have increased, the transaction price has improved following the trading floor, and the terminal inventory has increased [6] - The total coking - coal inventory has increased month - on - month, the production - end inventory has slightly decreased, the short - term shutdown of coking coal has basically recovered, but the possibility of further large - scale capacity release is low under the background of over - production inspection [6] - The carbon - element supply is abundant, the downstream hot - metal production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. Coupled with the pre - National - Day restocking sentiment, the price is relatively firm, and the coking - coal trading floor has a premium. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [6] Silicon Manganese - The hot - metal production has continued to rise above 241. The weekly silicon - manganese production has continued to increase to a relatively high level, the silicon - manganese inventory has not increased, and the spot and futures demand is good [7] - The forward quotation of manganese ore has increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore has been boosted following the trading floor. The manganese - ore inventory has increased, but the inventory - building speed is slow [7] - The price valuation has been repaired upward, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The hot - metal production has continued to rise above 241. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month, the secondary demand has slightly declined marginally, and the overall demand is okay [8] - The ferrosilicon supply has recovered to a high level, the market's spot and futures demand is good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has slightly decreased [8] - The price valuation has been repaired upward, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (more clear short - term bearish trend with current investment opportunities) [1] Report's Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude oil in Q4 dropping from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is mainly to short on rallies, but there are geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities [1]. - Fuel oil is following the downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand (delayed power generation demand and potential weakening of bunker demand due to tariffs) and sufficient supply (increased Middle - East arrivals and stable Russian shipments). Geopolitical risks may support high - sulfur prices in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced inflow of Western arbitrage cargoes, but the shutdown of a Nigerian RFCC device may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. The third batch of export quotas is lower than expected, but the quota utilization rate is low, so the impact on supply and demand is limited [2]. - Asphalt has a relatively small decline among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased significantly. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plans of refineries show a significant year - on - year increase. The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price shows a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. - The self - use of liquefied petroleum gas in refineries has increased, squeezing the external supply. Typhoon weather affects imports in the South China region, and the arrival volume in the East China region is still low. The overall consumption has increased slightly. The marginal improvement in supply and demand and the expected improvement in import cost support the market price floor, and the LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the estimated Q4 average price of Brent crude oil will drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel. The medium - term strategy is to short on rallies, and short positions should be combined with out - of - the - money call options due to geopolitical and supply disruption risks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Demand is weak, and supply is sufficient, but geopolitical risks may support prices in the short - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Western arbitrage cargo inflow has decreased, but Nigerian factors may push low - sulfur oil to Asia. Export quotas have limited impact on supply and demand [2]. Asphalt - The decline is relatively small among oil products. The weekly shipment volume has increased. There is pre - holiday rush - work demand in the north. The October production plan shows a year - on - year increase. The overall inventory has decreased, and the futures price is in a slightly bullish consolidation pattern [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has increased, squeezing external supply. Typhoon affects imports in the South China region, and the East China arrival volume is low. Overall consumption has increased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - From September 15th to September 19th, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its September FOMC meeting, and China and the US held economic and trade talks in Spain. The US stock market rose for the week, while the bond market and commodities declined. In China, the year-on-year growth rates of industrial added value and total retail sales of consumer goods in August were lower than market expectations. The stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities fluctuated. After the Fed's FOMC meeting, the short - term market entered a rest period, and future market trends depend on the performance of macro - economic data at home and abroad [3][6][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stock Market Rises, Bond Market and Commodities Fall - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Most major global stock markets rose. US stocks had the highest gains, emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index remained low. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 0.09% in the past week, and the NASDAQ Composite Index led the gains in the US [8]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond increased by 8BP to 4.14% for the week. The bond market declined, and globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds. The global bond index fell 0.07% for the week [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The US dollar index fluctuated slightly higher for the week, with a 0.03% increase. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar had mixed performance, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [14]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: International gold prices rose for the week, but lacked continuous upward momentum. International oil prices declined, and the prices of major industrial products and agricultural products generally fell [17]. 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Divided, Bond Market and Commodities Fluctuated - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: The major broad - based A - share indexes showed divergent trends. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The growth style was more resilient. The power equipment and new energy, and coal sectors led the gains, while the banking and non - ferrous metals sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30% for the week [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 5923 billion yuan. The bond market fluctuated strongly. Overall, credit bonds > corporate bonds > government bonds. The ChinaBond Aggregate Total Return Index rose 0.05% for the week [22]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market rose slightly for the week. Among major commodity sectors, energy led the gains, while soft commodities performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 0.24% for the week [23][24]. 3. Major Asset Price Outlook - After the Fed's FOMC meeting, the short - term market entered a rest period. Future market trends require attention to the performance of domestic and international macro - economic data [3][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals continued to perform strongly. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, the short - term driving force for gold has eased after the decline of interest - rate cut trading, and there may be a phased adjustment at the historical high. However, in the medium term, factors such as stable central bank gold purchases, strong global gold ETF demand, a weakening US economy, challenges to the Fed's independence, geopolitical risks, and the US government shutdown crisis still support the upward movement of the gold's medium - term center of gravity. The upside target for silver is set at the 2011 high. This week, focus on the US August PCE data [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Fed Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week. Powell said the risk in the labor market is on the downside, and this rate cut can be seen as a risk - management measure. The dot - plot implies a total of 3 rate cuts this year and 1 next year. Fed理事米兰 called for rapid rate cuts but didn't get support from other officials. Overall, the Fed's attitude is cautious, and the rate - cut path is relatively moderate [1] - Fed Governor Milan believes there will be continued rate cuts in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari thinks two more rate cuts this year are appropriate [2] US Political Situation - The Republican appropriation bill passed by the US House of Representatives failed in the Senate. To avoid a government shutdown, the Democratic leader in Congress requested an immediate meeting with Trump. Trump said the government "is likely to shut down for some time" and blamed the Democrats. The 2019 government shutdown led to a significant increase in gold prices [1][2] Other News - The US Chief Justice asked Fed Governor Cook to respond to Trump by September 25 [2] - US media reported that Trump will meet with Arab leaders on Tuesday to discuss a cease - fire in Gaza [2]

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Different sectors in the market show diverse trends. Some sectors like precious metals and certain agricultural products have medium - term positive outlooks but face short - term adjustments, while others such as crude oil and some industrial metals have bearish or uncertain trends in the short to medium term [1][2] - The overall market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent futures declined 0.33%. After the peak consumption season, there is a growing supply - demand surplus. The mid - term trend is bearish. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term fluctuations, and a strategy of combining short positions and call options is recommended [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weakening, and supply is abundant, but Russian attacks support its valuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited supply - demand drivers [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Supply decreased slightly, and demand increased marginally. The price is supported, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [23] - **Urea**: Domestic supply is abundant, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the progress of rigid demand [24] - **Methanol**: Short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. High - inventory pressure exists, and long - term overseas gas restrictions need to be monitored [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation. The mid - term trend is positive, but short - term adjustments are possible [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices are supported by domestic spot supply - demand, but consumption indicators are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate between 79,000 - 80,500 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream开工率 is rising seasonally, but inventory has not turned around. The resistance level is at the March high [4] - **Zinc**: The export window is approaching, and domestic inventory is under pressure. The short - term trend is bearish [7] - **Lead**: The fundamentals are improving, and there is room for upward movement in the short term [8] - **Nickel**: Affected by the earthquake in Indonesia, the short - term trend is weak [9] - **Tin**: After price adjustments, inventory is decreasing, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see or use a "buy low, sell high" strategy [10] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: Both are in a strong - oscillation trend, and prices are likely to rise due to the "anti - involution" background [18][19] - **Ferro - alloys**: - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both have a high probability of strong - oscillation due to sufficient carbon supply, high iron - water production, and pre - holiday restocking [16][17] - **Non - Ferrous Metals Related**: - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is supported at around 2,830 yuan [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the decline of Shanghai aluminum but may show stronger resilience [5] Building Materials - **Steel**: - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a strong - oscillation. Demand for rebar is improving, while that for hot - rolled coil is falling. Attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions [14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term trend is high - level oscillation. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by high iron - water production [15] - **Glass**: It has a high - supply and low - demand pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment [33] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing, and the short - term price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. The long - term trend is bearish due to over - supply [35] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is increasing, but demand is improving, and the market is slowly recovering [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may decline. Caustic soda shows regional differences and is in an oscillation pattern [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term market is weak, but there is a possibility of downstream restocking after PX's negative factors are released [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is at the bottom of the range. Supply pressure is expected but currently low [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing - margin recovery [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The short - term trend is oscillatory. Long - term, soybean meal can be cautiously bullish [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Short - term, pay attention to trade - relation expectations. Long - term, they can be bought at low prices [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic supply bottleneck supports prices. Attention should be paid to the opening rate and trade - relation expectations [38] - **Corn**: After the new grain is on the market, the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: The supply pressure is high, and the futures are bearish [41] - **Eggs**: The seasonal peak is ending. Consider long - positions in the far - month contract [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is bearish. Wait and see after the price break - down [43] - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the domestic market is in an oscillation [44] - **Apples**: The short - term price may decline due to lack of supply - side drivers [45] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [46] Others - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see or use an oscillation strategy [47] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market may change from a smooth upward trend to an oscillatory one. Allocate more to technology - growth sectors and consider cyclical and consumer sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures prices are falling, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [48] - **Shipping**: The freight index is under pressure in the short term. The impact of the Poland - Belarus border closure on shipping demand needs to be monitored [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward/downward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a certain trend but low operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term balanced state and low operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing a comprehensive assessment of supply, demand, price trends, and offering corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and spot sales were poor. Xinjiang cotton production is likely to be bumper, possibly exceeding 700 million tons. The expected large pre - sale volume of new cotton may lead to competition among ginners, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream demand is still not ideal. It is suggested to wait and see and pay attention to new cotton acquisition, demand performance, and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. Brazil's sugar production is down year - on - year in the short term, and the supply pressure is lower than last year. The sugar - alcohol ratio remains high, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year. US sugar faces pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. This year's sales are fast, inventory is down year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focuses on imports and next season's output forecast. This year's syrup imports have decreased significantly, but the 25/26 season's output is uncertain due to weather [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples. The expected output change in the 25/26 quarter is small, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. The expected cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, so it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated. The futures market is cautious. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, and synthetic rubber was stable with a slight increase. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly. The tire operating rate increased slightly, and the finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, and the butadiene inventory also declined. It is recommended to wait and see due to the approaching National Day holiday [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp were stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased slightly, but the year - on - year inventory was still high. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow. China's pulp imports in August decreased month - on - month. The domestic inflation is expected to be weak, and the PPI improved marginally. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly. The New Zealand radiata pine price decreased in September, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the pressure is small. However, the peak - season demand has not started, so it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (judged as a relatively clear upward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend, and the market is fermenting) [1] - PTA: ★★☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend, and the market is fermenting) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (judged as a relatively clear downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (judged as a relatively clear upward trend) [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (judged as a downward trend, but with limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as new device expectations, overseas device changes, and seasonal demand changes [5][6] - The market sentiment is also influenced by macro - economic data and external factors [5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts continued to decline. Although the cost pressure on downstream products has not been fully alleviated, the demand for propylene has improved, and some companies are more willing to hold prices [2] - Polyolefin futures contracts declined slightly. The demand for polyethylene has increased, and the supply has decreased. The supply - demand situation of polypropylene has limited improvement [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued to be weak, with a decline in spot prices in East China and a significant reduction in trading volume in Shandong. The supply - demand situation may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppress the market [3] - Styrene futures contracts declined. The supply has decreased unexpectedly, but the demand is in a dull period, and there may be price promotions in the north before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA is under price pressure, and the market is weak in the short term. There is an expectation of downstream restocking before the festival, and the processing margin of polyester yarn may be repaired [5] - Ethylene glycol has returned to the bottom of the range. The supply pressure is not large in reality, but the expectation is weak [5] - Short fiber prices have declined. The industry is expected to be boosted by the peak - season demand, and the near - month contracts can be configured more [5] - Bottle chip production has slightly decreased, and the processing margin has been slightly repaired, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity exists [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures contracts have shown a strong shock. The short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and the long - term focus is on the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea futures contracts have continued to decline. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is in a state of loose supply - demand, with low - level fluctuations [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern, with high inventory pressure, and may show a weak shock trend [7] - The performance of caustic soda varies by region. The market may be in a shock pattern [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash has accumulated inventory again. The long - term supply is in an over - supply pattern, and it is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment in the short term [8] - Glass has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The inventory has declined, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The operation rating is not clearly defined in text, but it can be inferred from the star system that it may be a more bullish or bearish trend based on the context. The star rating is not specified in a way that can be directly translated to a standard investment rating, but the analysis shows a mid - term bearish trend. [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The text does not clearly state its star rating, but the analysis provides investment suggestions. [3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil: The mid - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, but the rebound space is increasingly limited. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended. [2] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: The decline of fuel - related futures is relatively limited. The low - sulfur supply pressure is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils when the spread is low. [3] - Asphalt: The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend. The price has bottom support and limited downward space. [4] - LPG: The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market. [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 1.87% overnight. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to a sharp increase in exports, while the increase in middle - distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut did not bring more - than - expected positive effects. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increasing operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feedstock demand for fuel oil. The growth in ship - fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in the high - sulfur ship - fuel sector. The third - batch low - sulfur fuel oil export quota in 2025 is 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative quota has increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. The low quota utilization rate limits the low - sulfur supply pressure. [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend as crude oil continues to correct. The factory and social inventories continue to decline, but the decline has slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. As of now this week, the cumulative warehouse receipts in East China warehouses have decreased by 3,050 tons, and 1,330 tons of factory - warehouse receipts were cancelled today. The downward pressure on East China's spot prices has eased, while the spot prices in South China and Hebei remain stable. [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Due to the high import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is bullish. In South China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. The good chemical profit margins can maintain a high operating - rate pattern, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support. [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Corn, Eggs [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. In the long - term, some products like soybean meal and bean - palm oil have potential upward trends, while others like Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybean decline slows down with price hovering at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual acquisition performance in the Northeast after late September and the verification of the expected improvement in trade relations for imported soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean meal 2601 decreased positions by over 50,000 lots and rose 0.43%. Supply is sufficient in Q4, and there may be a gap in Q1 next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The decline of soybean oil and palm oil slows down with a small rebound. Overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September shows differences. In the long - term, they can be considered for buying at low prices under the support of overseas biodiesel policies [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed prices rise with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. Canadian rapeseed continues to decline. The support of domestic supply bottlenecks for rapeseed prices remains, and attention should be paid to the expected trend of economic and trade relations [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low. Spot prices vary in different regions. After the enthusiasm for new grain acquisition fades, Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - Both spot and futures prices of live hogs continue to decline, hitting new lows this year. The supply pressure is large, and the bearish sentiment persists after the futures price breaks through the key resistance level [8] Eggs - Egg futures continue to reduce positions with a weak near - term and strong far - term pattern. The spot price has回调 for two consecutive days. For the far - month contracts in H1 next year, long positions can be considered, while attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [9]