Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (representing a clear long/short trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and cotton spot sales were poor with most prices stable. Xinjiang cotton has a high probability of a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream orders are still not ideal. Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations should be noted. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio is still at the upper edge of the historical range, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar declined weakly. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is lower year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focus has shifted to imports and the next crushing season's output estimate. The syrup import volume has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The storage volume of late - maturing apples in cold storage may be higher than expected. It is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, and a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with some increases, and the external butadiene port price declined. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly this week. The domestic tire operating rate has slightly increased, and the tire inventory has increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has decreased to 586,600 tons, and the butadiene social inventory has dropped to 12,600 tons. Demand is stable, natural rubber supply increases while inventory decreases, synthetic rubber supply and inventory both decrease. With the National Day holiday approaching, risk appetite is low. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the inventory of Chinese pulp ports decreased slightly compared to the previous period but was still at a high level year - on - year. The warehouse receipt digestion was slow. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month. The inflation is expected to be weak this year, and the PPI has marginally improved. The port inventory is high, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. Temporarily wait and see or trade within a range [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Steel is expected to oscillate strongly, constrained by weak demand expectations and supported by "anti - involution" and Fed rate cuts [2] - Iron ore is likely to oscillate at a high level in the short term, influenced by high supply, short - term demand support, and expectations of macro - policies [3] - Coke and coking coal are likely to oscillate strongly, with sufficient carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water providing support, and pre - National Day restocking sentiment [4][6] - Ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with improved price valuations and the impact of "anti - involution" [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Thread demand improved this week with reduced production and inventory, while hot - rolled demand declined with increased production and re - accumulated inventory [2] - High - speed blast furnace复产, but limited by poor profit per ton, and attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [2] - Downstream industries have weak domestic demand, but steel exports remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [2] Iron Ore - Global shipments are high, domestic arrivals decreased slightly, and port inventory decreased this week [3] - Terminal demand is weak, but high - level iron - water and pre - holiday restocking by steel mills support short - term demand [3] - The market expects macro - policies, and external factors like Fed rate cuts influence the market, with short - term high - level oscillation expected [3] Coke - There is still an expectation of the third round of price cuts, and some coking plants started the first round of price increases, with intensified competition [4] - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly decreased, and overall inventory increased [4] - Ample carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water, and pre - National Day restocking make the price relatively firm and likely to oscillate strongly [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal mine production increased slightly, and pre - National Day restocking sentiment is strong [6] - Total coking coal inventory increased, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and the possibility of further large - scale capacity release is low [6] - Ample carbon supply, high - level downstream iron - water, and pre - National Day restocking make the price relatively firm and likely to oscillate strongly [6] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Iron - water production continued to rise, and ferrosilicon manganese production increased to a high level [7] - Ferrosilicon manganese inventory did not increase, and demand for futures and spot is good [7] - Manganese ore prices increased, and with "anti - involution", the price is likely to rise [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production continued to rise, export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, and secondary demand declined slightly [8] - Ferrosilicon supply returned to a high level, market demand for futures and spot is good, and on - balance inventory decreased slightly [8] - With improved price valuation and "anti - involution", the price is likely to rise [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - position trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical industry is weak, with different products showing varying trends in supply, demand, and price [2][3][5] - Some products may have short - term price fluctuations due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, seasonal factors, and cost pressures [2][5][6] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts continued to decline. Propylene demand improved as prices dropped, but market supply showed an increasing trend [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts had a narrow decline. Polyethylene demand increased as downstream factory operating rates rose, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. Polypropylene supply may slightly shrink, but downstream procurement enthusiasm was restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued its weak trend, with a slight decline in weekly开工 and low - level fluctuations in processing margins. The domestic pure benzene market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppressed market sentiment [3] - Styrene futures main contracts declined. Supply had unplanned reductions, but demand entered a dull period, and there may be low - price promotions by northern enterprises before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA price was under pressure, and the PTA - PX spread continued to rebound. The short - term market was weak, but there was an expectation of downstream stocking before the festival [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic开工 increased slightly, and the market was expected to be weak, but the actual supply pressure was not large [5] - Short - fiber futures prices declined. Near - month short - fiber could be allocated more on the long side, and positive spreads could be bought at low prices [5] - Bottle chip operating rate slightly declined, with a slight reduction in inventory and a small repair in processing margins, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity limited the repair space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts showed a strong - side shock. Short - term supply - demand difference was expected to narrow, and long - term attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea main contracts continued to decline. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with the market oscillating at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with large inventory pressure. It may have an oscillating and weak trend [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differentiation. The futures price may oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had inventory accumulation again. In the short - term, it was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and the long - term supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [8] - Glass continued the pattern of high supply and weak demand. The futures price was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Fuel oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Asphalt: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged, and short-term geopolitical factors have limited impact on price rebounds. It is recommended to continue to focus on the strategy combination of high-level short positions and call options [2] - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the space for further compression of the high-low sulfur spread is limited. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of expanding the high-low sulfur spread on dips [3] - The asphalt futures continue to oscillate within a range, with the bottom support remaining and limited downside space [4] - The short-term price-to-oil ratio of LPG is expected to be strong, with good bottom support on the spot side. Attention should be paid to the peak-season stocking market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC11 contract falling 1.87%. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels more than expected due to a significant increase in exports, while the increase in middle distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut did not bring more-than-expected positive news [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, the main crude oil contract declined, and fuel oil futures also fell, with the decline of FU being relatively limited. Since the frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline, and the continuous increase in the operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feed demand for fuel oil. The incremental consumption of marine fuel in the Singapore market is also concentrated in the high-sulfur marine fuel sector [3] - The third batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas is only 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the third batch last year. Cumulatively, the low-sulfur export quotas in 2025 have increased by 900,000 tons year-on-year. However, considering the still low quota utilization rate, the supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited [3] Asphalt - Crude oil continued to correct, and asphalt futures continued to oscillate within a range. Factory and social inventories continued to decline, with the decline slowing down compared to the beginning of the week. As of now this week, the cumulative warehouse receipts in East China warehouses have decreased by 3,050 tons, and 1,330 tons of factory warehouse receipts were cancelled today. The downward pressure on spot prices in East China has eased, and spot prices in South China and Hebei have remained stable [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong, and the overall sentiment is bullish under strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks. In South China, imports have decreased due to the impact of typhoons. At the same time, the chemical profit margin remains good, and the high operating rate pattern can still be maintained. The short-term price-to-oil ratio is expected to be strong [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of crude oil prices remains bearish, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply disruptions. For precious metals, after the decline of the interest - rate cut trading, they may enter a phase of consolidation. For various metals and non - metals, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory changes, and policy expectations. Financial products like stocks and bonds also show different trends under the influence of the Fed's interest - rate cut and other factors [2][3][47][48] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected last week due to increased exports, while the increase in middle - distillate product inventories raised demand concerns. The Fed's 25bp interest - rate cut did not bring unexpected positive effects. The medium - term bearish trend remains unchanged, and short - term geopolitical factors may cause supply disruptions, but the rebound space is limited. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has been declining. The increasing start - up rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feed demand for fuel oil. The third - batch export quota of low - sulfur fuel oil is 700,000 tons, lower than last year's 1 million tons, but the supply pressure is limited due to the low quota utilization rate. It is recommended to consider a strategy of buying the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils at low levels [21] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures continued to fluctuate within a range. Factory and social inventories continued to decline, but the decline slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. The downward pressure on spot prices in East China has eased, and the prices in South China and Hebei remained stable. There is still support at the bottom of the futures price [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US was lower than expected, and precious metals fluctuated weakly. The Fed's risk - management interest - rate cut was not dovish enough, and after the decline of the interest - rate cut trading, precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated overnight, and long - position sentiment cooled after the Fed's interest - rate cut. Domestic social inventories decreased, and copper prices may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is advisable to wait and see [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. Downstream start - up continued to increase seasonally, and the inventory of aluminum ingots is likely to be at a low level this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown a turning point yet. The current industrial driving force is not strong, and there is resistance at the March high [5] - **Zinc**: After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut, zinc returned to fundamental trading. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, Shanghai zinc increased positions and declined, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer level again. The supply of zinc mines is increasing globally, and the general direction of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged. Focus on the changes in LME zinc inventories [8] - **Lead**: The supply of aluminum ingots was tight in the short term, and the fundamentals improved. However, after the rebound of lead prices, the profit of recycled aluminum was restored, and the expectation of the resumption of production of recycled aluminum smelters was strengthened. Pay attention to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton for the rebound of lead [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel declined after the interest - rate cut. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel iron decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel returned to the downward trend [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and foreign tin prices broke through the previous trend support. Pay attention to the performance of the MA60 moving average in the short term. The inventory risk overseas has decreased. The adjustment of tin prices is conducive to inventory reduction. Wait and see [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium prices fluctuated weakly, and market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased, and the inventory of smelters decreased, while the downstream inventory increased. The futures price of lithium carbonate showed support at a low level, and the overall trend was weak after the interest - rate cut [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose and then fell, closing below 9,000 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals is limited, and more positive factors are needed to break through the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures of polysilicon fluctuated and closed at 53,200 yuan/ton. The industry's production schedule in September decreased slightly compared with last month, and the inventory continued to rise. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for further policy guidance [13] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures continued to weaken, and market confidence was insufficient. The daily output continued to rise, and production enterprises continued to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand improved, and there was a phased replenishment expectation in the agricultural downstream. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply and demand, and the market fluctuated at a low level [23] - **Methanol**: The main contract of methanol continued to fall. The import volume decreased temporarily, and the port inventory accumulation slowed down. The short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, but the high - inventory pressure persists, and the boost to the market is limited. Pay attention to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions in the long term [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene returned to the 6,000 - yuan/ton level and fluctuated at a low level overnight. The weekly output increased slightly. The supply - demand situation in the domestic pure benzene market may improve in the third quarter, but the high - import volume expectation suppresses market sentiment [25] - **Styrene**: The Fed's interest - rate cut had limited impact on the market. There was an unexpected reduction in supply recently, but the demand entered a dull period. It is expected that northern enterprises may have low - price promotions before the National Day, which will suppress prices [26] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The demand for propylene improved, and the price was supported. The supply of polyethylene increased in demand due to the rise in downstream factory start - up rates, and the supply decreased due to more domestic maintenance enterprises. The improvement of the polypropylene supply - demand fundamentals is limited [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC was in a weak operation with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The performance of caustic soda varied by region. The futures price of caustic soda may fluctuate [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA followed the decline in oil prices and external sentiment. The demand for PTA continued to improve, but the inventory of polyester yarn was moderately high and the profit was poor. The valuation of PX/PTA may be dragged down by weak macro - demand [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by new - device expectations and weak external sentiment, ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. The domestic production decreased slightly, and the expected port arrival volume increased slightly. Pay attention to the commissioning of new devices [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the soybean meal futures continued to decline. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and there is a long - term cautious bullish view on soybean meal [35] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price of US soybean oil declined. The long - term trend of soybean and palm oil is supported by overseas biodiesel policies, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices continued to fall. The supply bottleneck of domestic rapeseed products still supports prices, but the change in import expectations will put pressure on prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans stopped falling and entered a sideways shock. The expected opening price of new - crop soybeans is low. Pay attention to the confirmation of the positive expectation of trade relations and the policy guidance of new - crop soybeans [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low overnight. Spot prices in different regions showed differentiation. Pay attention to the operation of Dalian corn before and after the new - grain opening price and the possible policy guidance [39] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs continued to fall and hit a new low this year. The supply pressure is large, and the bearish thinking should be maintained after the futures price breaks through the key resistance level [40] - **Eggs**: The egg futures reduced positions significantly, with the near - term contract being weaker than the far - term contract. The spot price began to correct. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - term contracts for next year's first half, and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - term contracts [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The weekly signing data of US cotton was good. The domestic cotton spot sales were poor. The Xinjiang cotton production is likely to be a bumper harvest. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still oscillating [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated overnight. The domestic sugar sales were fast, and the inventory pressure was light. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season increased. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43] - **Apples**: The futures price of apples fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, but the supply - side lacked positive drivers. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term [44] - **Timber**: The futures price of timber fluctuated. The domestic supply may remain low, and the demand during the off - season was good with smooth inventory reduction. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fell slightly. The port inventory in China increased, and the supply was relatively loose. The demand was average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within the range [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock market fell yesterday, and the stock - index futures contracts all closed down. A shares may change from a smooth upward trend to an oscillating upward trend in the short term. It is advisable to allocate more to the technology - growth sector in the medium term and consider allocating to the cyclical and consumer sectors on dips [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market is waiting for the next interest - rate cut opportunity. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The frequent price cuts of shipping companies reflect the high pressure of cargo collection at the end of the month. The freight rate center is expected to move down further, and the October contract may fall below 1100 points. The spot weakness will suppress the sentiment of far - month contracts [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: Not provided - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market has a complex situation with mixed demand and supply factors, and the market is affected by macro - policies and 'anti - involution' [1] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to supply - demand balance and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are influenced by cost expectations from policies such as anti - involution and coal production inspections, and there are opportunities for callback buying [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have good demand, but their price highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to 'anti - involution' information [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel recovered, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. The demand for hot - rolled coil declined, production continued to rise, and inventory re - accumulated [1] - High - furnace production has recovered rapidly, and hot - metal production remains high, but poor steel profits limit further production increases. Pay attention to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [1] - In August, real - estate investment declined more, infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowed, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, market optimism cooled, but the 'anti - involution' policy provided support to the futures [1] Iron Ore - Today, the iron - ore futures fluctuated. Globally, shipments are at a high level, domestic arrivals decreased slightly, and port inventory is stable with no significant short - term pressure to accumulate [2] - Terminal demand is relatively weak, but hot - metal production is high again. Steel mills need to replenish inventory before the holidays, so short - term demand for iron ore is supported [2] - The market expects macro - policies, and the 'anti - involution' policy still affects the futures. The Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations. Short - term iron - ore futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2] Coke - Coke prices declined today. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts, but some coking plants proposed a first - round price increase due to low profits, intensifying the game [3] - Coke inventory increased, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The market expects coal production inspections and 'anti - involution' policies, which are expected to increase coke costs. Coke prices mainly follow coking - coal prices [3] - Carbon supply is abundant, and hot - metal production is high. The futures are at a premium, and prices are greatly affected by 'anti - involution' policy expectations. Short - term callback buying opportunities are recommended [3] Coking Coal - Coking - coal prices declined today. Due to high expectations of production inspections and 'anti - involution' policies, prices are relatively strong [5] - Coking - coal production increased slightly, spot auction transactions weakened, and prices followed the futures down. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, and total inventory increased [5] - Carbon supply is abundant, and hot - metal production is high. The futures are at a premium. Against the background of policy expectations, buying on callbacks is recommended [5] Silicon Manganese - Today, silicon - manganese prices fluctuated strongly. On the demand side, hot - metal production quickly recovered to over 240, and the previous production suspension had little impact [6] - Silicon - manganese weekly production continued to increase, reaching a high level. Inventory did not increase, and both spot and futures demand was good [6] - Manganese - ore forward quotes increased slightly, and spot prices were boosted. Manganese - ore inventory increased slowly. Prices mainly followed the rebound of the black - metal sector, but highs were restricted by fundamentals. Pay attention to 'anti - involution' information [6] Ferrosilicon - Today, ferrosilicon prices fluctuated strongly. On the demand side, hot - metal production quickly recovered to over 240, and the previous production suspension had little impact [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. Magnesium - metal production decreased slightly, and secondary demand decreased marginally. Overall demand was okay [7] - Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, market demand for both spot and futures was good, and inventory decreased slightly. Prices mainly followed the rebound of the black - metal sector, but highs were restricted by fundamentals. Pay attention to 'anti - involution' information [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated in the given content - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct long - term trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in the given content - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct long - term trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct long - term trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - The medium - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged, with limited upside potential for short - term rebounds due to geopolitical factors. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended [2] - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the high - low sulfur spread has limited further compression space, and a strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread on dips is recommended [3] - The bottom support for asphalt futures prices still exists, with the futures continuing the range - bound trend and the spot price decline pressure in East China alleviated [4] - The short - term LPG price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong, with good bottom support at the spot end, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.6% during the day. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to a significant increase in exports, while the increase in middle - distillate product inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut did not bring more than expected positive effects [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil. Since Russian refineries were frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The continuous increase in the operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feedstock demand for fuel oil, and the incremental ship - fuel consumption in the Singapore market is also concentrated in the high - sulfur ship - fuel field [3] - The third batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export quotas in 2025 is only 700,000 tons, lower than the 1 million tons in the third batch last year. Cumulatively, the low - sulfur export quotas in 2025 have increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. However, considering the still - low quota utilization rate, the low - sulfur supply pressure is limited [3] Asphalt - Today, crude oil declined, while asphalt futures continued the range - bound trend. Today's data showed that factory and social inventories continued to decline, with the decline slowing down compared to the beginning of the week. The warehouse receipts in East China warehouses decreased by 350 tons today, and a total of 3,050 tons have been reduced so far this week. The downward pressure on the spot price in East China has been alleviated, and the spot prices in South China and Hebei remained stable [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Under the circumstances of strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is positive. In South China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. At the same time, the chemical industry's profit margin remains good, and the high - operating - rate pattern can still be maintained. The short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Apple: Bearish (★☆☆) [1] - Timber: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Natural Rubber: Bearish (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed bearish based on text) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Bearish (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed bearish based on text) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing insights on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and suggesting corresponding trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures declined significantly, with most cotton spot prices stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There are concerns about possible over - pre - sale and potential price hikes from ginneries, but the impact is expected to be manageable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macro factors like Sino - US trade talks and Fed rate cuts are also under consideration. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to fall. Brazil's sugar production is down year - on - year in the short term, but the sugar - alcohol ratio remains high, suggesting potential high sugar - making ratios next year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. Domestic sugar sales are fast, with lower inventory and less pressure. The market focus is on imports and next - season's output, and the impact of weather on the 25/26 season's output is uncertain [3] Apple - Apple futures are oscillating. Early - maturing apples have good demand, but the supply of late - maturing apples in the 25/26 season is expected to be stable, and there is a high expectation of increased cold - storage inventory. It is expected that the futures price will decline in the short term, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, commodity futures prices fell. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operation rate decreased last week. Chinese tire production and export data show a mixed performance, with overall market conditions being okay. Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao declined, while butadiene rubber inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see due to approaching holidays and low risk - appetite [5] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly, with stable spot prices. Chinese pulp port inventory is high year - on - year, and the August import volume decreased. Domestic inflation is expected to be weak, and PPI shows marginal improvement. Pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - Timber futures are oscillating, with stable spot prices. Last week's timber arrival volume decreased, and the New Zealand radiata pine price dropped in September. Domestic importers are less willing to import due to high foreign prices. Although demand is entering the peak season, port shipments have not increased significantly. Inventory is low, and the supply - demand situation has improved, but there is limited short - term upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyethylene price is expected to rise due to the support from the demand side, but the price rebound may be limited because of the continuous pressure from the supply side [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. New Capacity Continues to Be Released, and Domestic Production Increases Significantly - From Q4 2024 to H1 2025, the concentration of new ethylene cracking device launches was high, increasing the supply pressure of domestic production, and the expansion was mainly in low - pressure and linear polyethylene, intensifying homogeneous competition [1]. - As of now, 343 million tons of new polyethylene devices have been put into production in 2025, and the total planned production capacity for the year is 663 million tons [1][2]. - From January to August, the maintenance loss of polyethylene in China was 323.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.03%. The polyethylene production was 2068.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the industry's operating rate has been around 75% since Q2 [4]. - There are still multiple device launches planned for the later period, mainly high - pressure and low - pressure, with limited pressure on linear polyethylene launches, and most launches are concentrated at the end of the year. The pressure on the general - purpose material market mainly comes from H1, and the production release in H1 still poses a significant threat to H2 [4]. 2. Demand in the Traditional Peak Season Remains to Be Released, and the Room for Improving the Supply - Demand Contradiction May Be Limited - The operating rate of the plastic downstream industry has further declined year - on - year this year, and insufficient demand support has been a persistent problem. During the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the demand of most downstream product industries has increased, but overall it is still weaker than expected [7]. - In the agricultural film industry, demand has further increased, and the industry is in a full - production peak season. The operating rate is expected to increase by 20 percentage points and reach its peak in early November. However, downstream factories mainly make rigid purchases [9]. - In the PE packaging film sector, supported by domestic and foreign holidays, orders have been released intensively, and the inventory preparation expectation has increased. Some export enterprises have seen an improvement in order - taking [9]. - In September, the PE pipe market is expected to shift from the traditional off - season to the peak season, but the recovery of the municipal infrastructure and real estate industries is insufficient, restricting market recovery. After late September, demand is expected to improve [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint The price of polyethylene has an upward expectation due to the support from the demand - side, especially with the arrival of consumption seasons. However, the supply - side pressure from the continuous release of new production capacity is hard to relieve, so the price rebound height is expected to be limited. Technically, the plastic main contract faces obvious pressure at the gap on the K - line chart, and it's difficult for the price to break through the levels of 7450 and 7650 [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 New Production Capacity and Output Growth - From Q4 2024 to H1 2025, the new ethylene cracking device investment is highly concentrated, increasing the domestic supply pressure, especially in low - pressure and linear polyethylene, intensifying homogeneous competition. As of now, 343 million tons of new polyethylene devices have been put into production in 2025 [1]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's polyethylene maintenance loss was 323.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.03%. The output was 2068.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%. The industry's operating rate has been around 75% since Q2. More devices are planned to be put into production later, mainly high - pressure and low - pressure, with limited linear production pressure, and most are scheduled for the end of the year [4]. - Multiple companies have new polyethylene device investment plans in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 663 million tons. The pressure on the general - purpose material market mainly comes from the first half of the year, and the output release in H1 still affects H2 [2]. 3.2 Demand in Traditional Peak Season - The operating rate of the plastic downstream industry has been lower year - on - year, and demand support has been insufficient. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the demand of most downstream products industries has increased, but it is still weaker than expected [7]. - In the agricultural film industry, demand is increasing, and the industry is in the peak production season. The operating rate will gradually reach the annual high, with a 20 - point increase space, and the demand will peak in early November. However, downstream factories mainly make rigid purchases [9]. - In the PE packaging film sector, supported by domestic and foreign holidays, orders are concentratedly released. Export orders for some products are increasing, and the demand for rigid products is expected to rise [9]. - In September, the PE pipe market is expected to shift from the off - season to the peak season, but the recovery of relevant industries is insufficient, and the demand recovery amplitude may be limited. After late September, demand is expected to improve [10].