Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals declined. A suspected乌龙 event last week caused the US - session gold to hit a record high briefly, with a large premium over London gold. Later, the premium declined after a White House official called relevant reports "false information" [1] - The official implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, some countries' tariff increases, concerns about the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed the international gold price to test the important resistance at the upper end of the trading range in the past three months [1] - Interest rate futures are pricing in a Fed rate cut in September, with 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. Some Fed officials believe it's time to cut rates [1] - Market sentiment may fluctuate as the US economy is continuously verified. If the scenario of significant economic weakness becomes clearer, the upside space for gold may reopen; if the economy lands relatively smoothly, be cautious at high levels [1] - Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the precious metals' oscillating trend. This week, focus on changes in China - US trade policies, the meeting between US and Russian leaders, and the release of US inflation data [1] Other Key Points - Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15. Trump mentioned "territory exchange" in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, but Zelensky refused territorial concessions. The White House is considering inviting Zelensky to Alaska. US Vice - President Vance said efforts are being made to determine the date of a Putin - Zelensky meeting, but a Russia - Ukraine leaders' meeting before the "Trump - Putin meeting" is not constructive [2] - Fed Governor Bowman supports starting rate cuts in September and cutting rates three times within the year [2] - Netanyahu said Israel "has no choice" but to complete the task and defeat Hamas. The next - stage military operations of the Israeli army will focus on two locations still under Hamas control. European members of the UN Security Council strongly condemned Israel's decision to further expand military operations, and Israeli hard - line Finance Minister Smotrich also criticized it as a "stupid" compromise measure [2]

单位：万吨 本期数据 周环比 单位：万吨 本期数据 周环比 全球发货量 3046.7 -15.1 RT发运量 630.6 14.3 巴西19港发运量 847.4 104.7 BHP发运量 542.5 -30.0 澳洲19港发运量 1580.3 -140.9 FMG发运量 311.3 -49.9 澳洲发往中国量 1365.6 -122.8 Vale发运量 566.6 -27.0 四大矿山总发运量 2051 -92.6 国内45港到港量 2381.9 -125.9 2025/8/11 研究院 韩倞 Z0016553 本期铁矿全球发运环比小幅下降，同比强于去年同期，其中澳洲发运下降幅度较大，巴西和非主流国家发运增 加。国内到港量本期环比回落，略高于去年同期水平。整体来看，铁矿供应相对平稳，未来存在季节性回升预 期。 《铁矿发运到港周周递》 市场总览 【免责申明】 数据来源：Mysteel，国投期货整理 1600.00 2100.00 2600.00 3100.00 3600.00 4100.00 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not specified [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market lacks a clear guiding thread, with some underground copper mines in Chile resuming operations and waiting for the impact of tariffs. Hold short positions in the 2508 contract [2]. - The aluminum market shows narrow fluctuations, with the social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increasing. The market is in a short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the aluminum oxide market is in a state of surplus [3]. - The zinc market is pulled up by the external market due to continuous inventory reduction in LME zinc and increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The zinc price is expected to face resistance during the rebound [4]. - The lead market has insufficient fundamental contradictions. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions [7]. - The tin market is in a volatile state, and it is advisable to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a daily limit on Monday. The shutdown of a mining area in Jiangxi Yichun by CATL has affected the market, and the downstream is actively restocking [9]. - The industrial silicon market has significant supply pressure, and it is expected to show short - term shocks [10]. - The polysilicon market has a limited upward push in spot prices, and the trend may maintain a range - bound shock [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Monday, Shanghai copper continued its upward trend in the session, with spot copper at 79,150 yuan and flat - water copper at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. Some underground copper mines in Chile resumed operations, and the market is waiting for the impact of tariffs. Hold short positions in the 2508 contract [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the East China spot at a discount of 50 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 23,000 tons and aluminum bars by 4,000 tons. The market is in a short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with a stable spot price of 19,800 yuan. Alumina is in a state of surplus, with limited downward space [3]. Zinc - LME zinc continued to reduce inventory, and the external market pulled up the domestic market. The term structure of zinc has flattened, and the inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to face resistance during the rebound, and it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - The lead market has insufficient fundamental contradictions, with funds mainly reducing positions. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the social inventory continues to decline. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the maintenance rhythm of primary lead smelters in late August [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The upstream price support has weakened significantly. The inventory situation is complex, and it is recommended to enter short positions as the market is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up, with spot tin at 268,000 yuan and a premium of 600 yuan to the delivery month. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. It is advisable to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price had a daily limit on Monday. A mining area in Jiangxi Yichun by CATL shut down, and the downstream actively restocked. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and the price structure shows a weak near - month trend [9]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon rose slightly, with stable spot prices. The market has significant supply pressure, and it is expected to show short - term shocks as the expected increase in downstream demand is less than that of industrial silicon [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded after reaching above 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price increase was limited. The downstream component price decreased, and the trend may maintain a range - bound shock [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View No information provided. 3) Summary by Related Catalog - **Copper**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,150, up 620, and the SMM flat - water copper premium is 110, up 15 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,630, down 20, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50, with no change. The price of alumina (Shanxi) is 3240, with no change, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina is 375 dollars, with no change [1]. - **Lead**: The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,725, with no change, and the premium of SMM 1 lead ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 110, down 10. The average price of recycled refined lead is 16,750, with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is - 25, with no change [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,530, up 60, and the premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 30, down 20 [1]. - **Tin**: The average price of SMM 1 tin is 268,000, with no change, and the premium of SMM 1 tin to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 600, down 570. The average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 256,000, with no change, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.52% [1]. - **Nickel**: The average price of 1 imported nickel is 122,100, up 950, and the average premium of 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 350, with no change. The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 123,950, up 900, and the average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 2200, down 50 [1]. - **Silicon**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) silicon is 9700, up 150, and the premium of 553 silicon spot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 840, down 195. The average price of 421 silicon (Kunming) is 10,000, the average price of polycrystalline silicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon material is 47 [1]. - **Lithium**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,500, up 2600, and the premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 6060, down 4300. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200, up 100 [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The global commodity market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and weather conditions, leading to different trends in different commodities [1][34] - In the financial market, the A - share market shows a narrow - range consolidation, and the market style suggests an increase in the allocation of technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [46] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined, with Brent 10 - contract down 4.6% and SC09 - contract down 7.22%. Geopolitical risk premiums dropped significantly. The market focuses on OPEC+ production increases and the impact of US reciprocal tariffs on oil prices. High volatility is expected due to the Trump - Putin meeting and the Russia - Ukraine situation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has abundant arrivals, and the ship - bunkering demand lacks support. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and the high - sulfur to low - sulfur fuel oil price spread continues to narrow [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the CP reduction, the spot market is weak. The North American market is under pressure, and the import cost affects the domestic market. However, there is bottom - support for domestic demand, and the futures price is at a low level [23] - **Asphalt**: The sample refinery's shipment volume increased slightly, and the overall commercial inventory remained flat. The supply increase space is neutral, and the demand needs to be repaired. The asphalt price follows the crude oil price, and the BU crack spread has rebounded recently [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: On Friday, precious metals oscillated at a high level. The US reciprocal tariffs, economic concerns, and interest - rate cut expectations pushed the international gold price to test the resistance. A "buy - on - dips" strategy is recommended during the oscillation [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Last Friday, the copper price rebounded. The market lacks a clear direction. Some Chilean underground copper mines resumed production. Attention should be paid to the 2508 contract delivery and the change in the premium or discount [3] - **Aluminum**: On Friday night, the Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated narrowly. The aluminum market is in the off - season, but the aluminum rod production increased. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [4] - **Zinc**: The main - contract expiration falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The macro and fundamental factors do not resonate well. The LME zinc price rebound pulls the domestic market, but the zinc price rebound is under pressure. Short - selling opportunities are awaited above 23,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The lead price oscillated at a low level, with low trading volume. The scrap - battery recycling is difficult at low prices, and the refined - scrap price spread is 25 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The "anti - involution" theme is ending, and nickel is expected to return to its fundamentals. The inventory situation shows that the overall inventory level is still high. Short - selling is recommended as the nickel price is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [9] - **Tin**: Last Friday, the tin price oscillated and closed lower. Attention should be paid to the moving - average support and the change in high social inventory [10] - **Manganese & Silicon Alloys**: For manganese silicon and silicon iron, the prices oscillate. The iron - water production remains high, and the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous highs [18][19] Building Materials - **Steel Products (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly. The rebar's apparent demand and production increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The hot - rolled coil's demand and production declined, and the inventory also increased. The market is in a state of "strong expectation vs. weak reality" [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price oscillated last week. The global shipment is expected to increase seasonally in August, and the port inventory has stabilized. The terminal demand is weak, but the steel mills' demand for replenishment remains. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices of coke and coking coal oscillated. The coking industry's profit improved, and the inventory decreased. The prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high volatility and limited downside space [16][17] Chemicals - **Urea**: After the policy implementation last week, the urea market declined. It is the off - season for agricultural demand, and the export policy is the focus of the market [24] - **Methanol**: The coastal olefin plants' operation rate is low, and the port inventory increased significantly. In the long - term, with the approaching of the peak season, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and downstream inventory - building [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure - benzene price oscillated and declined due to the weakening oil price. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter later stage [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillated, with increased supply and weak demand. Caustic soda oscillated strongly on Friday night, but the long - term supply pressure is high [27] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the weak oil price, PX and PTA prices oscillated weakly. There is room for the PTA processing margin to repair [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene - glycol price oscillated and declined due to the weak oil price and port inventory increase. The short - term trend is weak oscillation [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price followed the raw - material price down. The bottle - chip's processing margin improved slightly, but the long - term capacity surplus is a pressure [30] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: In the context of uncertain Sino - US trade tariffs, the US new - crop soybeans are difficult to enter the Chinese market. The soybean - meal market oscillates, and the US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Overseas US soybean oil prices declined. The market needs to wait for the guidance of the US biodiesel policy. A "buy - on - dips" strategy is recommended [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report is awaited. The domestic rapeseed market may oscillate weakly in the short - term [36] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures price continued to decline weakly. The auction of imported corn had a low success rate [38] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton inventory decreased, and the downstream operation rate was stable. Temporary observation is recommended [41] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price oscillated. The Brazilian production expectation is bearish. The domestic sugar market has less inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [42] - **Apples**: The apple futures price increased. The price of early - maturing apples started high and then declined. The market focuses on the new - season's yield estimate [43] - **Wood & Pulp**: The wood futures price oscillated. The supply - demand situation improved, and the price is expected to rise. The pulp price oscillated, with relatively high inventory and weak demand [44][45] Other Commodities - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot freight rate is falling, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify in late August. The market may be pessimistic, pushing the futures price down [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price declined last week, and the geopolitical risk premium dropped significantly. The market refocused on the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and US reciprocal tariffs on oil prices. The outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting and the situation in Russia-Ukraine will still cause high volatility in oil prices [1]. - The precious metals oscillated at a high level on Friday. The official implementation and intensification of US reciprocal tariffs, concerns about the US economic outlook, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts pushed the international gold price to test the important resistance at the upper limit of the operating range in the past three months. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the oscillation [2]. - The copper price rebounded last Friday, but the market still lacks a clear main line. Part of the underground copper mines in Chile resumed work, and the indicators are waiting for the impact of tariffs. Pay attention to the changes in the premium or discount during the delivery of the 2508 contract this week [3]. - The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly in the night session on Friday. The consumption in the aluminum market remains in the off-season, but the output of aluminum rods has increased month-on-month, and the inventory peak may appear in August. The short-term trend of Shanghai aluminum is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [4]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the balance is in a surplus state. The "anti-involution" theme has led to sharp fluctuations in related varieties, and the price of bauxite overseas during the rainy season is firm, corresponding to the cost of 3,000 - 3,100 yuan in Shanxi and Henan in China. Alumina is under pressure to oscillate, but the downside space is also relatively limited [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai has been raised to 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor, but it has certain resilience relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity with AL [6]. - The expiration date of the main zinc contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are relatively positive, but the resonance between the macro and the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand is insufficient, and the capital congestion has significantly decreased. The fundamental situation is strong overseas and weak domestic. The rebound of LME zinc has a pulling effect on the domestic market, but the willingness of downstream buyers to accept high prices is insufficient. The zinc price rebound is under pressure, waiting for the short-selling opportunity above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. - The lead price oscillated at a low level, with low capital attention and light trading. Scrap battery recyclers have difficulty in purchasing at low prices, and secondary lead producers are reluctant to sell due to losses, resulting in a premium of 25 yuan/ton for primary lead over secondary lead. The willingness of downstream buyers is poor, and the rigid demand tends to purchase more cost-effective primary lead. Some primary lead smelters have regular maintenance plans at the end of August, and the overall supply of lead ingots is expected to increase month-on-month. The peak-season consumption still needs to be verified by the social inventory. Wait for the evolution of contradictions. The Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The "anti-involution" theme in China is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to the fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. In terms of inventory, the nickel iron inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of de-stocking. The Shanghai nickel is in the middle and late stages of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [9]. - The tin price oscillated and closed down on Friday. Pay attention to the support of the moving average combination. In China, pay attention to the changes in the high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plans of large factories and tin consumption. The SMM tin social inventory decreased slightly by 90 tons to 10,235 tons last week. Adopt a wait-and-see approach or choose short-term long positions opportunistically [10]. - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with heavy volume, and the market trading was active. The price structure is weak in the near term, and the spot price is quoted at 72,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry behavior is active, and the spot market trading has improved. The total market inventory is 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of ownership is obvious, and the downstream has increased the replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which has significantly followed the decline of the lithium carbonate price. The smelting output has decreased by 8% week-on-week. After the significant rebound of the lithium carbonate futures price, the game value has decreased. Look for short-selling opportunities at high positions [11]. - The polysilicon futures rebounded after reaching above 49,000 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the average price of polysilicon reclaimed materials remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton (SMM), and the upward push resistance is relatively large. The downstream component price has decreased, and the end-users still have resistance to high prices. Overall, there are still policy expectations. Pay attention to the progress of capacity management. The spot price increase has slowed down, and the trend may maintain range oscillation [12]. - The industrial silicon closed slightly higher, and the spot price quoted by manufacturers remained stable. The current market supply pressure is still significant. It is expected that the output in August will increase by 21,700 - 31,700 tons month-on-month. Among them, the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan are continuously increasing, and large factories in Xinjiang also have复产 arrangements. Although both the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon have production increase expectations, the expected increase is still less than that of industrial silicon. There are still policy expectations, and combined with the large decline in the previous disk, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - The steel price oscillated weakly in the night session on Friday, and the billet price in Tangshan decreased by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. The apparent demand and output of rebar have both increased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The demand for hot-rolled coils has dropped significantly, and the output has also decreased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The molten iron output has declined moderately but remains at a high level. Under the low-inventory pattern, the market negative feedback pressure is not large. Pay attention to the subsequent production restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places. From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continues to decline significantly, infrastructure growth has slowed down, the manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, and the overall domestic demand is still weak. The steel export in July remained at a relatively high level. The real estate market in Beijing continues to relax, and the decline in PPI in July has narrowed. The strong expectation brought by the "anti-involution" and the weak reality of the fundamentals are repeatedly gaming, and the market sentiment is still cautious. The disk may still fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [14]. - The iron ore disk oscillated last week. On the supply side, the global shipments are expected to increase seasonally in August, the domestic arrivals have increased, and the port inventory has stabilized. There is no obvious short-term pressure to accumulate inventory. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weak due to the weather, the molten iron output has decreased slightly in the short term, but the steel mills currently have insufficient motivation to actively reduce production. It is expected that the molten iron will remain at a relatively high level in the short term, and the replenishment demand for iron ore still exists. Pay attention to the progress of policy production restrictions in the future. At the macro level, there is still uncertainty in overseas trade, and the "anti-involution" sentiment in China has cooled down. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate at a high level in the short term [15]. - The coke price oscillated during the day. The sixth round of price increase for coking is pending, and the profit has improved. The daily coking output has increased slightly. The overall coke inventory continues to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is good. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the molten iron in the downstream remains at a high level during the off-season. The market sentiment has been boosted by the coal over-production inspection. The coke disk has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. The volatility will increase in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [16]. - The coking coal price oscillated during the day, and the market has high expectations for the coal over-production inspection. The output of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot auction market has improved, and the transaction price has mainly increased. The terminal inventory remains unchanged. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the production-end inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue de-stocking in the short term. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the molten iron in the downstream remains at a high level during the off-season. The market sentiment has been boosted by the coal over-production inspection. The coking coal disk has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. The volatility will increase in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [17]. - The manganese silicon price oscillated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons, still at a relatively high level. The weekly output of silicon manganese has been increasing, but the production increase rate is lower than expected, providing certain support for the price. The price of manganese ore has increased slightly this week. It is judged that the manganese ore will still accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, the supply exceeded the demand, and the on-balance inventory continued to decrease. Pay attention to when the on-balance inventory of silicon manganese will start to increase. The bottom of the silicon manganese price is gradually rising, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. Pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [18]. - The silicon iron price oscillated during the day. The molten iron output has decreased slightly but remains above 2.4 million tons. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand has decreased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron has increased slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance inventory has increased slightly. The silicon iron mainly follows the trend of silicon manganese, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. Pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [19]. - The current spot price of the container shipping index (European line) is clearly in a downward trend, and the freight rate is accelerating its decline. The price reduction mode has changed from "taking turns to test" to "competitive follow-up reduction". However, it showed a tug-of-war between long and short positions last week. The core contradiction lies in the game between the "weak reality" and the "high basis". The main contract is deeply discounted to the spot. The current futures price of 1,400 - 1,450 points corresponds to a spot valuation of about 2,000 - 2,100 US dollars/FEU, while the actual spot central level is still above 2,800 US dollars/FEU. Looking forward, the reduction of blank sailings and the addition of extra ships in late August will increase the supply pressure, and the shipping companies are likely to accelerate the "price-for-volume" strategy to maintain their market share. If phenomena such as frequent and significant price cuts by multiple shipping companies occur, the market pessimism will spread comprehensively, and the market will strengthen the expectation that the freight rate central level in October will be lower than 2,000 US dollars/FEU (corresponding to the underlying index of 1,400 points) and even gradually approach the cost line (corresponding to the lowest spot level in the first half of the year around 1,250 points), pushing the disk down [20]. - The fuel oil arrival volume in the Asian market is abundant in August, and the ship bunkering demand lacks support. The ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has been declining month-on-month since June. The Singapore inventory remains at a high level, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore has continued to decline by 7 US dollars/barrel since the high in mid-July. The fundamental situation of the low-sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and combined with the recent weakening of the cost, the short-term pressure on LU is difficult to change. The decline of high-sulfur resources is relatively smaller than that of low-sulfur, and the price spread between high and low sulfur fuel oils continues to narrow [21]. - The sample refinery's asphalt shipment volume has increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase has remained stable. The de-stocking of refinery inventories has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased slightly. The overall commercial inventory has remained unchanged month-on-month and is still at a relatively low level in recent years. In summary, the production increase space on the asphalt supply side is currently regarded as neutral. The actual production release of major refineries needs to be tracked and observed in the future. The demand is in a weak reality and has the expectation of recovery. The asphalt single-sided trend follows the crude oil. Against the background of the weakening of crude oil, the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [22]. - After the CP reduction, the spot market of liquefied petroleum gas is running weakly, and the North American market is relatively under pressure. The import cost continues to put pressure on the domestic market with the increase in the arrival volume at the beginning of the month. The chemical profit has stabilized due to the decline in the finished product price. The PDH operating rate is still increasing, and there is bottom support for the domestic demand. The crude oil has weakened recently, but the current basis has rebounded to a relatively high level. The fundamental negative factors have been gradually realized, and the disk is running at a low level [23]. - After the policy was implemented last week, the urea market continued to decline, and downstream buyers and traders mainly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Currently, it is the off-season for agricultural demand, and the demand for autumn fertilization has started slowly. Compound fertilizers are expected to gradually enter the concentrated production period in the future. There are both departures and arrivals at the port, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. There are many domestic urea plant overhauls, and the daily output has decreased slightly, but it is still abundant compared to the same period last year. The short-term supply and demand situation is loose, and the market focus is on the changes in export policies [24]. - The overall operating rate of methanol olefin plants along the coast is not high, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rate of domestic production enterprises has decreased slightly, and downstream buyers maintain rigid demand procurement. The inventory in the inland is at a low level and continues to decrease. In the future, the import is likely to return to the historical high level. The short-term apparent demand along the coast is weak, and the port is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation. The market is expected to run weakly in the short term. In the long term, the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching. Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and downstream replenishment rhythm [25]. - The pure benzene price oscillated and declined with the weakening of the oil price, and the sentiment in the现货 market has cooled down. The domestic production has continued to increase, the import arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, it is mainly dragged down by the cost. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply and demand in the middle and late third quarter, and it may be under pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct band operations on the month spread [26]. - PVC is oscillating. The upstream price has increased, but the profit of chlor-alkali integration is still acceptable, and the cost support is not obvious. The supply has increased month-on-month due to the reduction of overhauls and the addition of new production capacity. It is the off-season for both domestic and foreign demand, and the social inventory has continued to increase since July. The demand is poor, and the production is at a high level. The short-term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated strongly in the night session on Friday. The industry inventory continues to increase. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali has improved month-on-month. The plants in the northwest region have resumed operation, and the supply has increased month-on-month. The demand support from alumina is acceptable, but the non-aluminum downstream demand is average. The downstream has resistance to high prices, and the spot price has declined slightly. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the long-term supply pressure remains. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [27]. - Affected by the weakening of the oil price, the prices of PX and PTA oscillated weakly. The processing margins of PTA spot and

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not clearly defined, represented by "なな女" [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly defined, represented by "なな女" [1] - Styrene: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - PX: Not clearly defined, represented by "ななな" [1] - PTA: Represented by "★★★", indicating a more distinct long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Represented by "★☆☆", indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Short Fiber: Represented by "☆☆☆", indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the market [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined, represented by "な女女" [1] - Urea: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - PVC: Not clearly defined, represented by "女女女" [1] - Caustic Soda: Represented by "★☆☆", indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Soda Ash: Not clearly defined, represented by "な女女" [1] - Glass: Represented by "☆☆☆", indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins generally show a weak or range - bound trend. The demand for propylene is in the off - season, and the supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, with varying demand situations [2] - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by weak oil prices. Pure benzene may have a seasonal improvement in the second half of the third quarter and face pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene's supply is sufficient but demand is weak [3] - PX and PTA prices are weak due to oil prices, and there is a possibility of valuation repair for PTA. Ethylene glycol prices are under pressure from port inventory accumulation. Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, and bottle - chip processing margins are still low [5] - Methanol shows a narrow - range fluctuation, with port inventory accumulation. Urea prices are falling, and the market focuses on export policies [6] - PVC shows an oscillating trend with weak demand and increasing supply. Caustic soda is under long - term supply pressure [7] - Soda ash and glass are in a weak state, with inventory accumulation and weak demand [8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The downstream demand is in the off - season, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price weakness continues [2] - Polyolefins futures: Polyethylene has an expected increase in short - term output, with improving demand. Polypropylene has stable costs, but new orders are insufficient and the purchase enthusiasm is suppressed [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The oil price is weak, the domestic output increases, the import decreases, and there is a seasonal improvement expectation in the second half of the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene: The supply is sufficient, the main consumption is slightly increasing, but the downstream procurement intention is low [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: Affected by weak oil prices, the prices are weak, and there is a possibility of PTA valuation repair. The industrial chain profit is expected to transfer from PX to PTA [5] - Ethylene glycol: Affected by port inventory accumulation, the price is oscillating downward [5] - Short fiber: The price follows the raw materials, and there is a positive expectation in the peak season [5] - Bottle chip: The processing margin is still low, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The coastal olefin start - up is low, the port inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term and may change with the approaching peak season [6] - Urea: The market is falling, the demand is in the off - season, the export situation is complex, and the market focuses on export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The cost support is not obvious, the supply increases, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [7] - Caustic soda: The supply increases, the demand is mixed, the market is accumulating inventory, and the price is under long - term pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The industry is accumulating inventory, the supply is high, the demand from the photovoltaic industry is weak, and the price is under pressure but unlikely to break the previous low [8] - Glass: The industry is accumulating inventory, the spot price is falling, the profit and capacity are slightly increasing, and the market is back to real - world trading [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (No clear indication of trend, with emphasis on short - term shock) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Canola Meal: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Canola Oil: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ (No clear indication of trend, with emphasis on short - term shock) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are affected by multiple factors including trade policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships. There is no clear trend in the short - term, and most products are in a state of shock. For long - term investments, factors such as the development of biodiesel policies and seasonal supply - demand changes need to be considered [2][3][5] - Attention should be paid to the weather in domestic soybean - producing areas, policy guidance, the resolution of tariff issues, and the impact of biodiesel policies on the prices of agricultural products [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean auctions had a total of 32,000 tons with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold. The price of Soybean No. 1 fluctuated at a low level, and the price difference between Soybean No. 1 and No. 2 continued to narrow. There is resistance to price increases during the harvest period. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth, and there is uncertainty in the long - term supply of soybeans in the domestic market [2] - In the context of unclear Sino - US trade tariffs, US new - crop soybeans are difficult to enter the domestic market, and domestic soybean meal continues to fluctuate. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased, and domestic procurement in the fourth quarter is slow. The oil mill's crushing rate is stable, and soybean meal inventory has reached a new high for the year. There is an early expectation of a bumper harvest for US soybeans, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is resolved [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - In the short - term, there is a need to be cautious about the risk of increased price fluctuations in soybean and palm oil. The market is discussing the US biodiesel policy, and the price spread between foreign and domestic soybean oil is approaching parity. The previous upward trend is likely to turn into a shock. The long - term development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains, so a strategy of buying on dips is maintained. Palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and there is uncertainty in the long - term supply of soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the amplification of market sentiment in the medium - term [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices have risen due to the rebound of major overseas oilseed futures prices. Before the release of the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the rapeseed meal market is expected to be bullish in the short - term. China - Canada economic and trade negotiations have not released new signals, and the downstream of the domestic rapeseed industry continues to destock slowly, so prices are supported but demand expectations may decline [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to be weak. The auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had a low transaction rate. Without policy guidance, the domestic corn market is expected to remain weak at the bottom [6] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continued to fall, reaching a new low for the year, while the futures price was relatively strong. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August increased by 6.6% month - on - month. The fourth - quarter slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the near - term futures price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the production - capacity reduction logic in the long - term [7] Eggs - Egg futures continued to decline with increasing positions. The spot price was basically stable, with slight rebounds in some areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking demand and the release of cold - storage eggs on the spot price. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and a reverse - spread trading strategy is recommended for the futures market [8]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年08月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡回落。 本周螺纹表需、产量均有所上升，库存继续累积。热卷需求大幅回落，产量也有所下滑，库存继续累积。 铁水产量温和回落，整体维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注后期唐山等地限产力度。从下游行业看，地产 投资继续大幅下滑，基建增速放缓，制造业景气程度放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，7月钢材出 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - Logs: ★☆★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Overall, for most commodities, the current advice is to take a wait - and - see approach due to various factors such as uncertain supply and demand, and unclear market trends. Only for logs, a bullish investment strategy is recommended [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remaining stable, and some high - basis prices still being adjusted downwards. The trading atmosphere in the cotton yarn market was average [2]. - After consecutive declines, cotton prices have stabilized. Low inventory supports prices, but weak downstream orders drag them down. In July, the inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure [2]. - Macroscopically, Sino - US economic and trade negotiations may remain unchanged in the short term. There are strong expectations of increased production in Xinjiang in the new year, with an increase in planting area and generally ideal weather [2]. - Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see, and maintain a positive spread trading strategy for the 9 - 11 spread [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July was neutral to bearish. Although the production progress accelerated in July due to less rainfall, the overall progress was still slow, and some international institutions lowered the annual production forecast [3]. - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the medium - term forecast indicates that rainfall may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season [3]. - Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price rose. As the production season nears the end, the remaining inventory in cold storage is small, and traders are actively selling at weak prices. The listing volume of early - maturing apples increased, and prices dropped after an initial high [4]. - Due to high temperatures this year, the coloring of early - maturing apples was average, and the quantity of high - quality products was small. As of August 7, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 512,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.1%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 64,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.87% [4]. - The market's focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on yield was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the yield forecast. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated, NR rose slightly, and BR declined slightly. The domestic natural rubber spot price continued to fall, while the synthetic rubber spot price was generally stable. The Asian price of butadiene at foreign ports was stable, and European prices varied. The prices in the Thai raw material market fluctuated [6]. - In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, with heavy rainfall in major Southeast Asian producing areas. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased slightly [6]. - In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants declined slowly this week, the end - market demand was still weak, tire companies' sales were poor, and the inventory of semi - steel tires increased while that of all - steel tires decreased [6]. - In terms of inventory, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 631,800 tons this week, and both the bonded and general trade inventories decreased. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,700 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory increased to 14,700 tons [6]. - Overall, demand is slowly weakening, natural rubber supply is increasing, synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, rubber inventory is falling, and market sentiment is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures slightly declined. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,850 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,180 yuan/ton; and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,080 yuan/ton [7]. - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. In July, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 557,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 153,000 tons [7]. - Currently, domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is still weak. After entering August, downstream demand may gradually pick up as the peak season approaches. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. The spot price in Rizhao increased by 10 yuan [8]. - In terms of supply, it is still the off - season for New Zealand log shipments, and the domestic arrival volume of coniferous logs remains low. Although the foreign price has risen for two consecutive months, domestic spot prices remain weak, and traders' pressure has increased, so it is expected that imports will not increase in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low [8]. - In terms of demand, after entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good [8]. - As of August 1, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.17 million cubic meters, with relatively low inventory and small inventory pressure [8]. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and spot prices are relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, log inventory will gradually decrease, and spot prices are expected to rebound in the short term, with futures prices likely to continue rising. A bullish investment strategy is recommended [8]