Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% as expected. The meeting's signals were relatively neutral compared to pre - meeting expectations, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. Fed Chair Powell did not clearly guide on the future rate - cut path, and the threshold for future rate cuts remains uncertain. Market rate - cut expectations retreated after the meeting, causing fluctuations in major assets [1][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pre - meeting Concerns: Is it the Prelude to a September Rate Cut? - Since the last meeting, US economic data has shown resilience, with some indicators having inflection signs. In June, core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, and the labor market cooled with 7.437 million job openings. GDP growth was affected by net exports, and the concern about stagflation remained [2]. - US and major economies' tariff policies became clearer in July, and market risk preferences continued to recover. Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates, but the market considered it a low - probability event that the Fed's independence would be impacted [2]. - Two key points for the meeting were whether the Fed would provide more guidance on the rate - cut path while keeping rates unchanged, and whether Fed理事沃勒 and鲍曼 would vote against the rate - hold decision, which would increase the uncertainty of the rate - cut expectation for the year [3]. 2. Meeting Content: No Guidance on Rate Cuts in September and Beyond, Cooling Market Expectations - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Fed理事鲍曼 and沃勒 voted against, preferring a 0.25% rate cut [4]. - At the press conference, Powell did not guide on a September rate cut, cooled the market's September rate - cut expectation. He thought the job market was balanced, inflation was moving towards 2%, service inflation slowed while commodity inflation rose, and economic growth slowed due to reduced consumer spending. The removal of the "uncertainty has decreased" statement had no special meaning, and the process of final tariff estimation was not near the end [5]. - The meeting emphasized economic cooling factors and showed internal differences. The signal was relatively neutral, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. After the press conference, market rate - cut expectations retreated, and major assets fluctuated [6][7]. 3. Market Outlook: Tracking the Continuity of Geopolitical and Economic Stability, and the Implementation of Anti - Involution and Domestic Demand Expansion - After the June meeting, the report proposed to track three macro contradictions: the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on risk preferences, the progress of tariff negotiations, and domestic policies on expanding domestic demand [8]. - Since the June meeting, the Israel - Iran issue was quickly resolved, geopolitical risks were under control, tariff levels were determined, and domestic "anti - involution" policies were moving from expectation to implementation, with fiscal policies showing more signs of strength [8]. - The Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude in July. Future macro contradictions should be observed from three aspects: geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and the smooth suspension of Sino - US tariffs, and the hedging effect of domestic policies on the decline in external demand [9][10][11].

安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|有色视点】你问我答:多晶硅热点解读互动 研究院 1. 当前多晶硅期货仓单规模如何？是否存在遍仓预期? 7月多晶硅期货价格快速上行，而同期仓单增加470手（折合1410 吨），截至7月30日，多品硅期货仓单共 3070手（折合9210 吨），与主力合约高持仓形成对比。仓单增速平缓，原因在于：7月市场供需紧平衡，据 SMM、多晶硅产量预计近11万吨。而下游硅片排产从58GW降至50GW，若净出口环比持平，则当月无新增库存，仓 单补充依赖厂库库存转移。当前多晶硅厂库库存达历史高位（7月24日SMM统计24.3万吨），但结构呈现分化, 据悉，高库存集中于少数企业,其仓单生成进度不及预期;另有部分企业对期现商报价约5万元/吨（SMM），高 于现货成交区间,因此在政策不确定性下,价格博弈或放缓仓单生成速度。但参考5月行情，交割品不足引发的 潜在交割矛盾，在进入交割月后，随高持仓快速回落而消退。 2.当前多晶硅行业"反内卷"政策进程如何? 落后产能预期其真实性与合理性如何初步甄别? 多晶硅行业"反内卷"政策最新进展：据SMM，7月29日硅料企业召开行业会议，磋商产能收购事宜，具体调 整名单尚 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coke**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The overall industrial product futures market is under pressure, and the short - term market is affected by factors such as weak demand and "anti - involution" policies. Different varieties have different fundamentals and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices dropped significantly. This week, thread steel's apparent demand weakened, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil's demand and production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and the market's negative feedback pressure was low under the low - inventory pattern. The overall domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a relatively high level. The "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact, and the futures market was under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices declined. The global shipment was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume was weak. The port inventory was volatile and might decline slightly in the short term. Steel mills had good profitability, had no motivation to cut production actively, and replenished iron ore stocks. The iron - water production remained high. The market sentiment cooled down, and the price was expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price dropped significantly during the day. The fifth round of price increases by coking enterprises had thin profits, and the daily production increased slightly. The overall inventory continued to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was good. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the coke price was more affected by steel prices [4] Coking Coal - The main - contract price of coking coal hit the daily limit during the day, and the far - month price also hit the limit. The total inventory increased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. The "anti - involution" and coal over - production inspection policies had a positive impact on prices. The further downward space was relatively limited [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price rose first and then fell during the day. The long - term expectation of manganese ore inventory accumulation was improved, but it would still accumulate in the second half of the year, with a small short - term accumulation range. The forward price of manganese ore increased, and the price bottom of silicon manganese gradually rose [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon - iron price rose first and then fell during the day. The iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 242. The export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The silicon - iron price followed the silicon - manganese trend, and the power cost might decline again [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Logs: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and logs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, weather factors, inventory levels, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract reducing positions and the 01 contract increasing positions at a lower rate. The enthusiasm for long - positions was hit. Cotton inventory digestion slowed in July, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure. There were concerns about the quality of warehouse receipts. The anti - involution trading cooled, and the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation was still uncertain. Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation for the new year. The 9 - 1 spread dropped significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow, and the cane crushing volume and sugar production decreased significantly year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the later rainfall may decrease, increasing the uncertainty of sugar production in the 25/26 season. The US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that the sugar price will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. Traders were bullish. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. The cold - storage apple destocking volume last week was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. There are still differences in output forecasts, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, MR, and BR continued to decline. International trade risks increased, and the Fed remained on hold, weakening the sentiment in the rubber market. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubber generally decreased. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and there was more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, and some plants planned to conduct maintenance. The demand for tires was average, and inventories increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, the supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The anti - involution sentiment cooled, and the pulp price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable. The supply from New Zealand was low. As of July 25, the average daily delivery volume of national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. The inventory pressure was relatively small. The supply - demand situation improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view [8]

Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent's September contract up 0.98%. The market is focused on the resurgent risk of sanctioned oil. Geopolitical risks are providing short - term support to oil prices, and investors can consider the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options on crude oil [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, the US second - quarter GDP annualized rate rebounded to 3% more than expected, and ADP employment increased by 104,000, also exceeding expectations. The US dollar rebounded after the data release, and precious metals declined. With reduced economic recession risks and cooling risk - aversion sentiment, precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fell. Trump excluded steel imports from additional tariffs but targeted copper products. The US dollar's strength, due to good GDP data and stable private - sector employment, is suppressing copper prices. The market is waiting for the implementation of specific US tariff agreements. Short positions can be held against integer - level resistance [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. In the off - season, demand decline is evident, with inventory accumulation and a significant drop in apparent consumption. The upper resistance level is at 21,000 yuan [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the alloy's profit is negative, putting short - term pressure on prices. However, it has some resilience in the medium term compared to aluminum prices [5]. Alumina - Recently, alumina prices have risen significantly, with industry profits recovering. The total inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. Align short positions against the recent high of 3,500 yuan [6]. Zinc - The market is waiting for the results of China - US tariff negotiations. Downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low. There is room to short mine profits on the futures market. In the short term, wait for an opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - Lead prices are consolidating. The downstream battery industry's consumption has not improved significantly. Although there is strong cost support, there is a lack of consumption - driven upward momentum. Hold long positions against 16,800 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is fluctuating, with active trading. The hype of the "anti - involution" theme has cooled, and nickel may return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron has decreased, while that of pure nickel has increased. Short on rebounds [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and then fluctuated significantly. The spot market has become more active, and the total inventory is rising. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range. Try short - term long positions with a light position [10]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, mainly driven by the sentiment in the polysilicon market. Its own fundamentals are still weak. The exchange will implement position limits on August 1st, so beware of potential price corrections [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose sharply yesterday. Although the news of capacity storage has been clarified, the sentiment is still strong, and the growth of warehouse receipts is slower than expected. The exchange's position limit on August 1st may lead to a price correction [12]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Rebar demand showed a slight recovery, while hot - rolled coil demand declined. Low inventory and rising costs provide some support to steel prices. The market is volatile, and pay attention to overall market trends [13]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fluctuated overnight. Supply is slightly affected by seasonal factors, and demand is stable with high iron - water production. The market is expected to be range - bound [14]. Coke - Coke prices rose during the day and then fell back. The fifth round of price increases by coking plants has a thin profit margin. Inventory is decreasing slightly, and the downward space is limited [15]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices also rose and then fell, with high volatility. The total inventory has increased, and the production - end inventory is decreasing. The positive impact of policies may support prices, and the downward space is limited [16]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose and then fell. The expected long - term accumulation of manganese ore inventory has improved. In the short term, prices are likely to continue rising under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [17]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices followed a similar pattern. Demand is generally stable, and supply has increased slightly. It is likely to rise in the short term, following the trend of silicomanganese [18]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot freight rates are weakening, with some airlines reducing prices. The expected increase in US - bound shipments may have limited impact on European - line rates. Weather - related port disruptions are short - term [19]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil is leading the rise in oil - related futures. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the crack spread is likely to be range - bound and weak [20]. Asphalt - In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to decline. Demand is weak, and inventory de - stocking is slowing down. The price will follow the trend of crude oil, but the upside is limited [21]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Traders are cautious due to the possible further decline of the end - of - month CP. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is likely to remain low [22]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - Local agricultural demand for urea is ending, and the demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is expected to increase. Exports are facing congestion, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The price is likely to trade in a range in the short term [23]. Methanol - Methanol prices fell slightly overnight. Coastal MTO plant operations are not high, and port inventory is seasonally increasing. Domestic supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The price is likely to fluctuate in a range [24]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices rebounded slightly. Weekly supply and demand both decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. In the third - quarter later stage, there is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but it will face pressure in the fourth quarter. Consider trading monthly spreads [25]. Styrene - Styrene futures are consolidating. The rising oil price supports the cost, but supply is high, and demand is weak, so the price is under pressure [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - For propylene, downstream plant maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release are causing supply - demand imbalances. For polyethylene, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. For polypropylene, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices are falling as sentiment cools. Supply is decreasing due to enterprise maintenance, and demand is in the off - season. The long - term price increase is limited. Caustic soda is weak, with increasing inventory and long - term supply pressure [28]. PX and PTA - Rising oil prices are expected to support PX and PTA costs. PTA is still accumulating inventory, and the processing margin and basis are weakening. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it depends on downstream demand recovery [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Downstream demand for ethylene glycol is stable. Port inventory is fluctuating at a low level. In the short term, the strong oil price is a positive factor, but the market may face supply changes [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Chip - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chip prices follow the raw - material price. Short - fiber processing margins are falling, and demand is in the off - season. In the medium term, consider long positions. Bottle - grade chips have a stable inventory but face long - term over - capacity pressure [31]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are falling as sentiment fades. Industry profits are slightly recovering, and processing orders are weak. Without a reduction in supply, significant price increases are unlikely [32]. Group 6: Rubber 20 - Standard Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International trade risks are rising, and natural rubber supply is entering the high - production season. Demand from the tire industry is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [33]. Group 7: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The Fed maintained interest rates, and China - US trade negotiations may extend the tariff suspension for 90 days. US soybean growing conditions are good, with a high excellent - rate. The market is waiting for weather changes and is likely to trade in a range [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean oil is consolidating. The high oil - meal ratio in the US market may support domestic vegetable - oil prices. Consider long positions on dips for soybean oil and palm oil, and pay attention to weather and policies [36]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell overnight. Domestic rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are declining. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the prices are likely to trade in a range at high levels [37]. Soybean No. 1 - Soybean No. 1 prices fell overnight. China - US trade negotiations may extend the tariff suspension. Pay attention to weather in the Northeast and US soy - growing regions [38]. Corn - Corn futures are trading in a range. US corn growing conditions are good. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. Live Hogs - Live - hog futures are falling, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient medium - term supply and cooling policy - driven sentiment, futures prices are likely to decline further. Industries are advised to hedge on rallies [40]. Eggs - Egg spot prices are mostly stable, with some local declines. August - contract prices are falling, and off - season contracts are weak. Monitor whether the spot price can rise seasonally [41]. Cotton - US cotton prices are falling, and Brazilian cotton harvesting is slow. Zhengzhou cotton is consolidating at a high level. Pay attention to the details of China - US trade negotiations [42]. Sugar - US sugar prices are oscillating. Brazilian production expectations are negative, and there is uncertainty about China's 25/26 sugar - production due to weather. Sugar prices are likely to trade in a range [43]. Apples - Apple futures prices are fluctuating. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, with higher prices. The market is focused on new - season production estimates, which are still uncertain [44]. Timber - Timber prices are fluctuating. Demand is good in the off - season, and inventory is low. As the peak season approaches, prices are likely to rise, and a long - position strategy is recommended [45]. Pulp - Pulp prices are falling. Port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The market is likely to return to low - level consolidation [46]. Group 8: Financial Instruments Stock Index - A - share markets fluctuated sharply yesterday, with trading volume increasing. The Fed's decision and Trump's tariff policies have affected market sentiment. The domestic equity market has a positive capital - flow sentiment. Continue to increase allocations to technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - valued consumer sectors [47]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury - bond futures rose across the board. The Politburo meeting indicates a policy - implementation phase. In the short term, futures prices may recover, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread also falling. The inventory depletion rate slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 crushing season, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, most international consulting firms still expect the sugar production in central - southern Brazil to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increased production this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but were affected by high - temperature weather, resulting in poor coloring and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. Last week, the cold - storage apple removal volume was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. There are still differences in production estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the sentiment in the rubber market continued to weaken. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were generally stable. Globally, the natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, and some plants have maintenance plans. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The demand from the tire market was average, and the inventory of finished tires increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot prices remained stable. The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily log outbound volume from 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward breakthrough of zinc prices from the range-bound consolidation has limited further upside potential, and the downward movement is also not smooth. The short - term directional signal is insufficient. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation of zinc is expected to continue until 2026. It is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1][2][7]. - In the third quarter, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline, while in the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level [1][7]. 3. Summary by Section Zinc Market Review - After the delay of extreme US tariffs and the repair of market panic, zinc prices in the Shanghai market filled the gap after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The expected economic soft - landing in the US and inflation expectations support zinc prices. However, due to the increase in domestic and overseas mine production, high prices of by - products, and pre - consumption caused by tariffs, the fundamentals have turned to supply increase and demand weakness, and the zinc price in Shanghai is under pressure at the 23,000 yuan integer mark [1]. - The shift of the zinc term structure from "B" to "C" indicates that the change from strong to weak fundamentals is being fully priced. Under the situation of weak reality and weak expectations, the term structure is flat. The profit space for short - selling is narrowed, and the loss from position transfer is also greatly reduced. In the third - quarter consumption peak season, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline [1]. Policy - level Impact on Zinc Prices - Tariffs: After the delay of high - level Sino - US tariffs, the supply of imported mines is relaxed, but the pre - demand caused by tariffs has overdrawn some future consumption space, and the domestic social inventory of zinc has gradually increased. Attention should be paid to the progress of the third - round Sino - US negotiations on August 12, and the market generally expects another 90 - day tariff delay [2]. - Anti - involution: In the short term, it has a supporting effect on zinc prices, but in the long - term, it has little impact on the upstream and downstream production capacity of zinc, and the situation of supply increase and demand weakness is expected to continue [2]. - Power sector: The long - term investment in the power sector is optimistic. Although the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station has limited direct demand for zinc, the supporting power grid and infrastructure construction can drive zinc consumption [2]. - Infrastructure: As of the beginning of the year, local special bonds have mainly been used to repay old debts, and the infrastructure has not strongly stimulated demand. With the weakening of the US dollar and the loosening of the domestic monetary policy in the second quarter, some infrastructure projects may be implemented during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2]. Domestic Refinery Raw Material Supply and Industrial Chain Profit Distribution - In June, the raw material inventory days of domestic refineries reached 29.7 days. The project approval of domestic lead - zinc mines has accelerated, and mines are expanding and resuming production. Refineries have a low acceptance of high - priced imported ingots, making it difficult for import ore traders to raise prices. The domestic TC of imported ore has increased, and the profit of mines is high, with room for short - selling mine profits on the futures market [4]. Impact of LME Deliverable Inventory Concentration on Shanghai Zinc - On July 18, the LME zinc price rose by 3.16%, the largest daily increase this year. The market is concerned about the squeeze - out risk. The net position of LME zinc investment funds has changed from short to long, and the external market has a strong trend, which has an obvious pulling effect on the domestic market. Short - term sharp decline of zinc prices is difficult. However, the long - position of investment funds on the LME has been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks [5]. Zinc Price Rebound and High - level Hedging Pressure - There is still a demand for high - level industrial hedging. When the zinc price in Shanghai is above 23,000 yuan, the entry of hedging positions brings downward pressure. Speculative funds tend to believe that the rebound high of zinc is in the range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton [6]. Overall Market Outlook - In the third quarter, zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there is high pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex supply - demand relationships and price trends, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. For example, some products are affected by new capacity releases, while others are influenced by changes in oil prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device overhauls in Shandong and new capacity releases, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases and inventory accumulates, though downstream demand is gradually warming up. For polypropylene, upstream inventory is transferred to the middle - link, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Night - time oil prices rise significantly, causing the price center of pure benzene to rebound. The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene both decrease, and the port inventory slightly accumulates. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. The cost - end support strengthens, but the supply - demand remains weak, with high - level supply and increasing port inventory [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon. PX's fundamental driving force is limited, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with a weakened processing margin. The new capacity of short - fiber is limited, and its price follows raw materials. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues in the long - term [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and its price is affected by short - term oil price strength. Overseas device disturbances are weakening as domestic supply recovers [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation rates are low, and the port inventory accumulates seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to oscillate within a range [6] - Urea futures open high and close low. Local agricultural demand is ending, and the downstream demand is weak. Production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the short - term market is likely to move within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise overhauls, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve [7] - Caustic soda runs weakly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali improves, and device operation rates increase. The long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to face pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. The spot market in Shahe cools down, and production and sales weaken. The industry profit recovers slightly, and long - term demand is poor [8]