| | | | VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年07月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | 女女女 | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆止跌反弹,盘面减仓。中美双方第三轮经贸谈判,根据会谈共识,双方将继续推动暂停关税互加。并 展期90天。政策方面本周国产大豆双向购销政策溢价成交。短期东北地区降水偏多,需要防范低洼农田出现滞 涝风险。进口大豆方 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - numbered rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread dropping. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a new low in the past 20 years. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and downstream procurement was for rigid demand. It's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. For the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region, the expected sugarcane yield per hectare is 72 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. However, most consulting companies believe the sugar production will exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - numbered Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the rubber market sentiment weakened. The global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, but some plants are planning to have maintenance in early August. The demand in the terminal market is average, and tire inventories are increasing. It's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The supply from New Zealand is low. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports increased by 2.72% week - on - week. The total log inventory at national ports decreased. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

【国投期货|能源论事】 美国对俄制裁最后期限前置，地缘风险再度 支撑油价 能源团队 研究院 高明宇 Z0012038 2025.7.30 免责声明：国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供国投期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的机构或个人客户（以下 简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。如接收人并非国投期货客户，请及时退回并删除。 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅 反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的期货或期权的价格、价值可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。客户不应视本报告 为其做出投资决策的唯一因素。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所导致的任 何损失负任何责任。 本报告可能附带其它网站的地址或超级链接，本公司不对其内容的真实性、合法性、完整性和准确性负责。本报告提 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products facing various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new capacity release, downstream demand changes, and oil price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases, inventory accumulates, and although downstream demand warms up, the supply - demand situation lacks substantial improvement. For polypropylene, upstream inventory transfers to the middle, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - After a sharp rise in night - time oil prices, the pure benzene price recovers. Its weekly supply and demand both decline, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3] - Styrene futures' main contract fluctuates narrowly. The cost support strengthens as oil prices rise, but the supply - demand situation remains weak with high supply and accumulated port inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon due to oil price support. PX fundamentals have limited drive, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with weakening processing margins and basis. Mid - term processing margins have a repair drive but depend on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and port inventory fluctuates at a low level. It faces supply changes due to device maintenance and restarts. Short - term oil price strength provides positive support [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw material fluctuations. Short fiber's processing margins decline, and its demand is in the off - season, but there is mid - term positive expectation. Bottle chip has stable inventory under low - start conditions, and over - capacity restricts its processing margin repair [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation is not high, and the port accumulates inventory seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand changes little. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [6] - Urea futures' main contract opens high and closes low. Local agricultural demand is ending, downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises accumulate inventory. The market is likely to operate within a range in the short term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve. Long - term prices are unlikely to rise significantly [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit improves, and device operation increases. Alumina demand provides support, but non - aluminum demand is average. Long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. Spot sales weaken, industry profit recovers slightly, and processing orders are weak. In the long - term, without supply reduction, glass prices are unlikely to rise significantly [8]

Reported Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides investment ratings and operation suggestions. It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to weather and policy guidance, as well as market supply and demand changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans stopped falling and rebounded, with reduced positions in the futures market. The third round of economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States reached a consensus to continue to suspend the addition of tariffs and extend the period for 90 days. The short - term precipitation in Northeast China is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the risk of waterlogging. The weather in the Midwest of the United States is favorable for soybean production, and preparations should be made for a potential bumper harvest [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The third - round Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached an agreement to suspend the addition of tariffs and extend for 90 days. In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas in the United States is slightly higher than normal, and the soil humidity is better than last year. As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The high good - to - excellent rate puts pressure on US soybeans. The market should continue to observe the weather in the producing areas and treat the market as volatile for now [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The technical form of US soybean oil is in a sideways shock. The high ratio of US soybean oil to tank and the strengthening of the international crude oil market may boost the domestic vegetable oil market. The short - term weather is favorable for US soybean production. Overseas vegetable oil prices are stronger than those in China, increasing the probability of trading opportunities. Due to the long - term development trend of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the upcoming palm oil production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the short - term phenomenon of strong oil and weak meal. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures prices generally rebounded. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills increased by 0.7 million tons to 1.9 million tons, the port inventory decreased by nearly 3 million tons, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal in East China has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks. The Sino - US consensus on continuing to extend the suspension of tariffs for 90 days, but uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian agricultural product trade still exist, which may intensify concerns about rapeseed import bottlenecks. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, and demand growth is limited due to the high price difference compared with competing products. The domestic import of Canadian rapeseed is cautious, the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed - related futures prices may fluctuate in a high - level range [6]. Corn - Corn futures continued to fluctuate. CGS will hold two auctions of imported corn tomorrow, including 186,200 tons of US corn and 8,600 tons of Ukrainian corn. The spot price in Shandong remained stable. As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 73%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The current domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and attention should be paid to the phased supply in the circulation link. Against the background of the decline in US corn prices, Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures fluctuated and declined during the day, continuing the recent correction. Only the July contract strengthened slightly. The spot price was slightly adjusted and basically stable. Considering the sufficient medium - term supply of live pigs and the rapid cooling of the policy - driven market this week, live pig futures may have reached their peak, and the probability of subsequent decline and fluctuation has increased. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies. Attention should be paid to the industry's slaughter rhythm, slaughter weight, and production capacity changes [8]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were stable in most areas and slightly declined in some local areas. The August contract is approaching delivery, and the futures price continued to fall. The off - season contracts continued to be weak, and the October and November contracts fluctuated and fell back to near the previous lows. The overall capital increased positions. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price can continue the seasonal peak - season upward trend. In the long - term, egg prices have not reached the cyclical bottom [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively neutral stance with poor operability [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish bias but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] Core Views - The market is closely watching the implementation of US tariff agreements with Europe and China, the Fed meeting, and a series of real - economy indicators. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market closed lower on Wednesday, and attention is paid to the support of the MA40 moving average. The decline in copper prices may reach the MA60 moving average, and short positions should be held against the integer - level resistance [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The off - season demand decline led to inventory accumulation, and the apparent consumption decreased significantly year - on - year. The upper resistance is at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the aluminum market, and the scrap aluminum market had tight supply. The profit of aluminum alloy was negative, with short - term price pressure but medium - term resilience. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy when the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina prices rose sharply, with increased industry profits, record - high operating capacity, and excess inventory. It is recommended to short against the recent high of 3500 yuan [2] Zinc - There is a stalemate between bulls and bears near the support level of 22,500 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for the result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. The TC continued to rise in August, and there is still room to short the mine's profit on the futures market. Adopt a mid - term short - on - rebound strategy and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental may return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 4300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the day. The long - term supply expectation from the mining end may suppress tin prices at high levels. In August, the supply and demand sides continued to compete, and the increase in domestic social inventory is expected to be limited. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and then fluctuated sharply. The total market inventory continued to rise to 143,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream was generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and short - term light - position long positions can be tried [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, mainly affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply increased slightly in most regions except Xinjiang, and the demand decreased due to an incident in the organic silicon DMC industry. The price is at a historical low, and it is recommended to take light - position long positions [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed sharply higher again. Although the news of capacity acquisition was false, it still boosted market sentiment. The factory inventory continued to decline, and there is an expectation of transfer to warehouse receipts. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and be cautious about short - selling unilaterally [10]

1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 | Millio | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月30日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡。美国公布6月职位空缺数从5月份修正后的771万个减少到744万个，略低于预期的750万 个。近期地缘风险相对平稳，关税谈判有序推进。中美双方谈判表示将继续推动美方已暂停的对等关税24% 部分以及中方反制措施如期展期。避险需求回落压制黄金表现,预计短期贵金属维持震荡走势。聚焦今晚美 国ADP就业、二季度GDP和明日凌晨的美联储会议。 ★关税 -- ①特朗普:若10天内不与乌克兰达成停火协议,将对俄罗斯加征关税。若对俄实施制裁也不担心 油价。②美商务部长：特朗普将在未来两 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - Copper: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,285 with a rise of 260, and the SMM flat - copper premium is 150 with a rise of 55 [1]. - Aluminum: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,670 with a rise of 50, and its premium is - 10 with a fall of 10; the price of alumina (Shanxi) is 3,250 with a rise of 10, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina is 380 with no change [1]. - Lead: The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,750 with a fall of 25, and its premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 120 with a rise of 5; the average price of recycled refined lead is 16,750 with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is 0 with a fall of 25 [1]. - Zinc: The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,680 with a rise of 110, and its premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 10 with a fall of 5 [1]. - Tin: The average price of SMM 1 tin is 268,100 with a rise of 2,000, and its premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 590 with a fall of 130; the average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 256,100 with a rise of 2,000, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.52% [1]. - Nickel: The average price of 1 imported nickel is 122,350 with a rise of 600, and its average premium to the SHFE nickel contract is 300 with a fall of 100; the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 124,150 with a rise of 600, and its average premium to the SHFE nickel contract is 2,100 with a fall of 100 [1]. - Silicon: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) is 10,350 with a rise of 200, and its premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,105 with a fall of 260; the average price of 421 silicon (Kunming) is 10,300, the average price of polycrystalline silicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon material is 46.5 [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,950 with a fall of 200, and its premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,490 with a rise of 17,880; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,850, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 with a fall of 50 [1]. Analysts - Xiao Jing, Chief Analyst, studies copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1]. - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1]. - Wu Jiang, Senior Analyst, studies nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1]. - Sun Fangfang, Intermediate Analyst, studies aluminum and zinc, with qualification number F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1]. - Zhang Xiurui, Intermediate Analyst, studies industrial silicon, with qualification number F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1].

| | | | 11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月30日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高回落。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量小幅回升，库存低位小幅下降。热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].