1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical factors, seasonal changes, and policy expectations. Investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each commodity and adjust their investment strategies accordingly, especially during the National Day holiday to control risks [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. The supply side is in a multi - empty intertwined state. The oil inventory accumulation process is clear, with a 2.4% increase in the third quarter. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy combining futures shorts and call options [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Iraq's crude oil export recovery and OPEC +'s increasing production expectations put pressure on oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation [20] - **Asphalt**: Market pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm increased. The overall inventory level decreased. The 10 - month production plan was in line with expectations, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Due to typhoon weather in South China, the import volume decreased. Supply - demand improved marginally, and the LPG price rebounded slightly from the bottom [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals continued to be strong. The medium - term upward trend remains, but there is high volatility risk during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose. The market is digesting the supply impact. Technically, LME copper shows potential for a trend breakthrough, and SHFE copper enters the high - price area. However, there are negative demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight non - ferrous metals were strong, but SHFE aluminum was relatively stable. The consumption in September was lower than expected, and it faces resistance at the March high. Pay attention to the peak - season feedback after the holiday [5] - **Zinc**: As the National Day holiday approaches, the zinc fundamentals weakened. Shorts increased positions significantly. Pay attention to the support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against potential short squeezes in the outer market [8] - **Lead**: The supply of lead exceeded demand in the short term, and the price dropped significantly. Pay attention to the cost support at around 16,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel is in a weak state. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel iron decreased, while the stainless - steel inventory increased. Wait for the external copper price to drive the market [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose rapidly. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesia's policy and the changes in refined tin production rate and inventory after the holiday [11] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: With the "Three - Carbon" concept, there is an upward driving force for prices. The demand from molten iron production is rising, and it's recommended to go long at low prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate. Pay attention to policy adjustments [23] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The real - world fundamental situation is okay, but the oil - price collapse and future demand decline expectations drag down the market [24] - **Styrene**: The cost - side support from oil prices is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses prices [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of polypropylene is under pressure, and the price is always under pressure. For polyethylene, the downstream has stocking demand before the holiday, but there is de - stocking pressure after the holiday [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak and oscillating state due to high supply and inventory. Caustic soda may oscillate due to weak current situation and strong future expectations [27] - **PX & PTA**: The strong expectations of PX are weakened, and the supply - demand situation of PTA is still under pressure after the holiday [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the supply - demand may be weak in the fourth quarter [29] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber demand is boosted during the peak season, and bottle - chip prices are affected by short - term factors [30] Building Materials - **Glass**: Pay attention to the downstream restocking sentiment. If capacity reduction does not occur, the market may return to a weak state [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related Products**: U.S. soybeans face seasonal and export pressures. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. Mid - term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. Consider protective call strategies [34] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Due to the holiday, market sentiment is cautious. Rapeseed meal demand is suppressed, while rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines before the holiday [35] - **Domestic Soybeans**: Domestic soybeans are performing better than imported ones in the short term. Pay attention to the performance after the listing of domestic soybeans [36] - **Eggs**: Egg futures have significantly reduced positions. After the National Day, demand will weaken. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year [38] - **Cotton**: U.S. and Chinese cotton prices are falling. Xinjiang cotton may have a bumper harvest, and domestic demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [39] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the market focuses on the next - crop - season yield estimate in China [40] - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so maintain a short - selling mindset [41] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Maintain a long - buying mindset [42] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices hit a new low. The inventory in Chinese ports is relatively high, and the demand is average. Stay on the sidelines [43] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index showed strength. The external liquidity environment for the Greater China stock index is positive. Mid - term, increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and moderately increase the allocation of cyclical sectors in the short term [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures closed down. The economic operation faces challenges, and the yield - curve steepening probability increases [45] Livestock - **Hogs**: Hog futures dropped. The supply is abundant, and the government has carried out small - scale purchases. The industry is in a loss state. Pay attention to the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [37] - **Eggs**: Egg futures reduced positions significantly. The demand will weaken after the National Day. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly interpretable from the symbol "ななな" [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analyses for various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber. It assesses the supply, demand, and inventory situations of each commodity and gives corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, maintaining a bullish or bearish stance [1][2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and strong pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new harvest. The purchase price of seed cotton followed the futures price down. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate ranges from 720 to 770 million tons. Ginners are cautious about new cotton purchase, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for purchase. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the bumper harvest. Weak peak - season demand and poor spinning profits drag down cotton prices. Although Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, details need further tracking. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratio, leading to a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane increased year - on - year, indicating a relatively good output expectation for the 25/26 season. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. For the new - season apples, the coloring of early - picked Fuji was slow, and the quality of ordered goods was average. Late - maturing Fuji began to remove bags, and the fruit size was smaller this year. Due to the good price of early - maturing apples, farmers are bullish, and the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high. However, the output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers' bullish sentiment led to an increase in fruit retention, and the cold - storage inventory after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU (natural rubber futures) continued to decline slightly, NR (20 - rubber futures) first declined and then rose, and BR (butadiene rubber futures) continued to fall. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a downward trend, the port price of butadiene in the overseas market was stable, and the raw material prices in Thailand generally declined. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there is more rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance and some restarting. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires increased slightly, and that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. Tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tires continued to increase. They will arrange holidays during the National Day. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 461,200 tons last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,200 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased to 27,800 tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, demand is expected to decline, supply pressure is high, inventory reduction is difficult, and the external environment is poor. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6] Pulp - Zhengzhou pulp futures dropped significantly, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp was 5,300 yuan/ton for Moon brand and 5,250 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,250 yuan/ton for Goldfish brand and remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% month - on - month decline. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow, and the warehouse receipts of broad - leaf pulp still suppressed the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. The current port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, demand is average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The port spot price increased by 10 yuan. The arrival volume increased last week. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in October increased, but the domestic spot price remained weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, indicating strong peak - season demand and smooth inventory reduction. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Considering the improved supply - demand situation and relatively low spot price, a bullish strategy is maintained [8]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆陆续展开收购,目前东北产区毛粮价格集中在1.85元/斤,刚上市的大豆主要以低蛋白为主。我 们上周东北产地调研了解的结果是市场对今年国产大豆产量预期跟去年比较是持平或微增，主要是得益于面积 增长。国产大豆短期表现好于进口大豆,国产和进口大豆价差走强。美豆表现偏弱，目前处于收获李节，面临 季节性 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】 今日RU继续小跌,NR先抑后扬,BR继续下跌,国内天然橡胶和合成橡胶现价稳中有跌,外盘丁二烯港口价格稳定,泰国原料市 场价格总体下跌。供应方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入高产期，东南亚等产区降雨天气偏多；上周国内丁二烯橡胶装置开工 率继续大幅回落，益华橡塑临时停车检修、山东威特继 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★★★, showing a more distinct upward trend and a proper investment chance [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and an appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations, lack of substantial production - limiting policies, and weak domestic demand, while steel exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets have relatively strong support at previous lows but face pressure due to concerns about post - festival industrial chain feedback. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have upward price - driving forces and are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded month - on - month, production stabilized, and inventory continued to decline. For hot - rolled coils, both demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Although the pig iron output increased and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today, and the basis has been fluctuating at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and those to China increased significantly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries remained high, while those from Brazil weakened slightly. The domestic arrival volume declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased last week. On the demand side, the profitability of steel mills declined, but the short - term resilience of pig iron production still supported iron ore demand. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward today. The first round of price hikes by coking plants is about to be fully implemented. Coke inventory continued to increase, and traders' purchasing willingness increased due to pre - holiday restocking demand. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. However, the market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward today. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the pre - holiday restocking sentiment has basically ended. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. The market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created new upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, the weekly production of silicon manganese increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate was slow. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, and export demand remained at about 30,000 tons. The secondary demand declined slightly, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply has recovered to a high level, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]

白银ETF收益领先 金融工程周报 基金市场回顾： 操作评级 中信五风格-成长★☆☆ 金融工程组 张婧婕 Z0022617 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 权益市场风格 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 2025年9月29日 周度报告 截至2025/09/26当周，通联全A（沪深京）、中证综合债与南 华商品指数周度涨跌幅分别为0.21%、-0.27%、0.43%。 公募基金市场方面，近一周被动指数类产品收益表现偏强，中性 策略产品跌多涨少，债券方面转债收益强于纯债，商品方面贵金 属ETF净值持续走强，近一周白银ETF上涨5.72%，豆粕ETF 延续回撤。 中信五风格方面，上周成长与周期收涨，其余风格收跌，风格轮 动图显示相对强弱层面周期风格边际转弱，指标动量层面稳定与 金融小幅回升。公募基金池方面，近一周消费风格基金超额表现 较优，周度超额收益率为0.91%，从基金风格系数走势来看产 品对周期风格偏移度边际提升；本周市场拥挤度指标小幅提高， 当前金融与消费风格位于历史偏高拥挤区间。 中性策略方面，从当季合约基差（期货-现货） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure benzene, styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX, PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene glycol, short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips, methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea, PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic soda, soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors. Some products are facing supply pressure and weak demand, while others have certain support from demand but also face future uncertainties [2][3][5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly. Supply is controllable as restarting devices are not in place, and downstream demand provides some price support [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts also fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene maintenance decreased with increased domestic production, and downstream has pre - holiday stocking demand but faces post - holiday de - stocking pressure. Polypropylene prices are under pressure due to multiple factors such as demand differentiation, supply pressure, and high inventory [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene oscillated downward. Although the current fundamental situation is okay with port inventory decreasing and spot price being relatively firm, high import volume and expected demand decline drag the market [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly. Cost - end oil price provides support, but high inventory suppresses the price [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectation weakened, and PTA's profitability is still poor. Although the pre - holiday stocking in the polyester yarn industry has reduced inventory pressure, post - holiday demand is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand situation remains under pressure [5] - Ethylene glycol's domestic operation decreased slightly, and port inventory is low. However, new device trials and weakening demand may lead to a weak supply - demand situation in the fourth quarter [5] - Short - fiber's new capacity is limited, and inventory decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has fulfilled the positive expectation. Bottle chips showed a short - term strong trend due to typhoon - affected device shutdown, but long - term over - capacity is a pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's main contract oscillated. Port inventory is expected to increase after the holiday, and the market is expected to be weak [6] - Urea prices increased slightly, but downstream follow - up is cautious. The domestic supply - demand situation is loose, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated weakly with high supply and high inventory. Domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking intention is low, and foreign demand is weak [7] - Caustic soda's futures price oscillated under the weak situation. Although there is an expectation of downstream stocking before alumina production, the current supply is high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash weakened. The industry is de - stocking, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking is nearly over. The long - term supply is in excess [8] - Glass prices fell from a high level. Some manufacturers plan to increase prices, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking sentiment [8]

| Million | 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属延续强势并刷新新高。周五美国公布8月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.9%、较上月维持不变。符合预 期,市场维持年内连续降息预判。不过近期美联储多位官员讲话表态谨慎,对于降息前景存在分歧,还需后 续就业和通胀数据的持续验证。美国联邦政府2026财政年度将于10月1日开启，如果国会在财政拔款上未能 达成共识,美国部分政府机构将面临停摆,原定于10月3日发布的9月就业报告,以及10月15日发布的通胀报 告，可能会被推迟。2018年-2019年政府停摆曾带动金价录得上涨。中期来看，美国经济走弱、美联储独立 性冲击、地缘风险延续等依然支持黄金重心抬升,白银上方目 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, take a short - side allocation for soybeans and a bearish view on corn; for the long - term, wait for the bottom for corn, and there is no clear long - term rating for soybeans [8][12] Core View - National soybean production is expected to remain above 21 million tons, with a supply - demand imbalance leading to a likely price trend of high - opening and low - closing. Corn production is likely to increase, with a high - opening and low - closing price, and no major unilateral market is expected this year [8][12] Content Summary by Category 1. Soybean - **Planting and Yield**: Influenced by policies and subsidies, the planting area of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased in 2025. Western regions maintained stable yields, while eastern regions had significant yield declines. Overall, the provincial yield was flat or slightly increased, and national production is expected to remain above 21 million tons [6] - **Cost and Subsidies**: The land rent cost of new - season domestic soybeans decreased, especially in the east. The comprehensive agricultural input cost was about 3,000 - 4,500 yuan/ha. Soybean subsidies were significantly higher than those for corn [7] - **Protein Content**: Due to the government's encouragement of high - oil soybean planting, the proportion of high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 40%, and the high - and low - protein differentiation was severe [7] - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry of domestic soybeans was not optimistic, with a supply - demand imbalance. Non - GMO soybean pressing enterprises faced challenges, and food and protein enterprises had stable processing and consumption but no growth in demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The price of soybeans may open high and close low. When the rough grain price is below 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, farmers may hold back sales. The short - term strategy is a short - side allocation [8] 2. Corn - **Planting and Yield**: Due to factors such as weather, subsidies, and economic benefits, the corn planting area in Heilongjiang decreased year - on - year, especially in the east. Most areas had increased yields, and the overall production was slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023 [11] - **Cost and Quality**: The land rent cost was the same as that of soybeans, and the agricultural input cost in the east was basically unchanged. The quality of new - season corn was better than last year, especially in terms of high bulk density [11] - **Price and Market**: The opening price of corn was high but trended down. The short - term market was bearish, and the long - term market needed to wait for the bottom. The market was likely to be volatile with a smaller amplitude than last year [12]