Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak domestic demand and high exports. The market sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly in a range - bound oscillation [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply - demand relationship. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is a risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3] - The coking market's fifth - round price cut is on hold. The price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement volume next week [4] - The coking coal market has an abundant supply of carbon elements. The price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6] - The silicon manganese market has a structural problem in port inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] - The ferrosilicon market is affected by policies. The demand is still resilient, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread's apparent demand continues to decline, production slightly rebounds, and inventory begins to accumulate. The hot - roll demand declines, production slightly rebounds, and inventory is slowly depleted with pressure to be relieved [2] - Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, blast furnaces are gradually restarted, and hot - metal production rebounds in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed [2] - Real estate investment decline continues to expand, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continue to fall, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high [2] - The market's optimistic sentiment cools, the trading floor is under pressure to fall back, and it is mainly in a range - bound oscillation in the short term [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments decline seasonally, domestic arrivals remain high, port inventory rises significantly this week, and the number of stranded ships increases [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, steel mill profitability declines, hot - metal production increases but there is no obvious restart in the short term [3] - Steel mill imported ore inventory continues to increase but is still at a low level, and there is still a certain expectation of winter storage replenishment [3] - The commodity market sentiment is volatile, and the iron ore's own fundamentals are relatively loose, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price fluctuates mainly during the day. The fifth - round price cut is on hold, coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases [4] - Coke inventory hardly changes, and attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume increases next week [4] - The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials remains at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [4] - The coke trading floor has a premium, and the price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuates mainly during the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,291 vehicles [6] - Coking coal mine production slightly decreases, and the mine restart situation is good after the New Year's Day [6] - Spot auction transactions are okay, the transaction price rises slightly driven by the trading floor price increase, and terminal inventory slightly increases [6] - Total coking coal inventory increases significantly, and production - end inventory rises significantly [6] - The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials remains at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [6] - The coking coal trading floor has a premium over Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation [6] Silicon Manganese - The price rebounds after hitting the bottom during the day. Driven by the trading floor rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises [7] - There is a structural problem in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile [7] - Silicon manganese smelters pursue the most cost - effective option and change the manganese ore blending formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase [7] - Last week, the manganese ore spot transaction price rose. On the demand side, hot - metal production decreases seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production slightly decreases, and silicon manganese inventory slightly decreases [7] - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the impact of "anti - involution" [7] Ferrosilicon - The price rebounds after hitting the bottom during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong [8] - The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increases, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue - charcoal prices [8] - On the demand side, hot - metal production rebounds to a high - level range, export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - Metal magnesium production increases month - on - month, secondary demand increases marginally, and overall demand is still resilient [8] - Ferrosilicon supply drops significantly, inventory slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8] - It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the start of 2026, egg spot prices have shown signs of strengthening, and they are expected to gradually gain upward momentum from January [2] - Due to continuous losses in chicken farming in 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishing chicken seedlings in the second half of the year reversed compared to the first half, leading to a significant decline in the pressure of newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026 [5][8] - With supply shrinking and demand increasing during the period from after New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, spot prices are expected to start rising [12] - In the first half of 2026, a long - position thinking should be maintained for egg futures, with strategies such as buying on dips for futures contracts in the first half of 2026 or adopting a long - near - short - far strategy [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chicken Farming Profit - In 2025, the egg - chicken farming industry almost suffered losses throughout the year, with only small profits during the egg - price rebounds at the beginning of the year and in September [5] Chicken Seedling Replenishment - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - seedling replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has been declining year - on - year, with the decline rate increasing monthly in the second half of the year. The year - on - year decline rates of single - month sales from August to December were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively [8] In - production Laying Hen Inventory - It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level, and the in - production inventory in the industry is expected to gradually decrease [8] - The data shows the in - production laying hen inventory, newly - opened hens, hens to be culled, and their ratios from December to May, with the newly - opened hens being about 10% less than the hens to be culled each month from January to May [10] Demand - During the period from after New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, both the procurement demand of food factories and the household procurement demand of residents are expected to increase due to festival demand [12] Strategy - In the first half of 2026, maintain a long - position thinking for egg futures, buy on dips for futures contracts in the first half of the year, or adopt a long - near - short - far strategy. Pay attention to the risk of basis convergence and the trading rhythm between expectations and reality [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor and suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall oil price is mainly driven by a loose supply - demand situation, with a downward trend in the central price. High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, while low-sulfur fuel oil faces a supply - driven loose situation. The cost of asphalt is expected to rise due to supply shortages and high alternative costs. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The current crude oil market is in a pattern of inventory accumulation due to oversupply. In January 2026, the global crude oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure. The situation between the US and Venezuela is unlikely to provide sustainable fundamental support for oil price rebounds. If US sanctions on Venezuela are relaxed, Venezuelan oil production and exports may increase. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The recent strengthening of the cracking spread of high-sulfur fuel oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors. The Venezuelan situation suppresses crude oil prices but supports high-sulfur fuel oil cracking. There are concerns about potential disruptions in heavy - product supply, which may increase the demand for fuel oil as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Geopolitical uncertainties in high - sulfur resource regions continue to affect raw material and high - sulfur fuel oil supply expectations. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to face supply - driven loosening pressure and its fundamentals remain weak. [3] Asphalt - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers has led to a sharp drop in shipments to China. It is expected to significantly impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, although January arrivals are still sufficient according to Kpler data. The current futures price has factored in the increase in premiums and is now in a sideways trend. If domestic refineries switch to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian crude as alternatives, the cost will be significantly higher than that of Venezuelan crude. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude supply and the rising cost of alternative raw materials are expected to drive up asphalt production costs. [4]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月09日 (原油) 经历多日承压后夜盘油价迎来显著反弹，布伦特最高接近63美元/桶。市场对地缘风险的反应虽推动 短期回升,但其持续性仍待观察。地缘局势的反复可能加剧油价波动、影响短期节奏,但并未扭转 库存累积带来的下行压力。当前供需格局显示，第一季度全球石油库存压力依然突出，供应过剩仍 是压制油价中枢下行的主要因素。需要警惕的是,若伊朗等地缘风险急剧升级,不排除引发油价短 期脉冲式上涨行情。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属先抑后扬，跌势缓和。美国周度初请失业金人数20.8万人，维持在低位水平。开年全球 她缘乱局延续，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，彭博大宗商品指数年度调仓影响不具备持续性，贵金属高 位震荡后仍有望测试前高阻力，考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机会。聚焦今晚 美国非农就业数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，高盛上调上半年铜价目标12750美元。市场关注美国高法对特朗普对等关税的裁 决，不过涉铜多走行业关税。沪铜主力换月至2603合约，市场关注2601合约期货仓单变动。昨日上 海铜贴水125元，SMM社库增至27.38万吨。前期 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot-rolled coils declined, production continued to rise slightly, inventory was slowly being depleted, but pressure still needed to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to marginal changes in off-season demand [1] Group 2: Specific Data Rebar - Weekly production: 191.04 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.82 tons - In-plant inventory: 147.93 tons, a week-on-week increase of 8.56 tons - Social inventory: 290.18 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.52 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 438.11 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16.08 tons - Weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports): 174.96 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 25.48 tons [1] Wire Rod - Weekly production: 66.26 tons, a week-on-week increase of 44.09 tons - In-plant inventory: 3.08 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.65 tons - Social inventory: 72.91 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.57 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 89.81 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13.70 tons [1] Hot-Rolled Coils - Weekly production: 305.51 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.00 tons - In-plant inventory: 77.32 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.00 tons - Social inventory: 290.81 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.17 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 368.13 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.83 tons - Weekly consumption: 308.34 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.43 tons [1] Medium Plate - Weekly production: 160.29 tons, a week-on-week increase of 196.12 tons - In-plant inventory: 158.41 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.31 tons - Social inventory: 81.3 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.20 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 239.71 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.68 tons - Weekly consumption: 818.59 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.41 tons [1] Total of Five Varieties - Total production: 865.17 tons, a week-on-week increase of 14.39 tons - Total inventory (plant + social): 1253.92 tons, a week-on-week increase of 21.77 tons - Total consumption: 796.82 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 44.20 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: No rating provided [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: No rating provided [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No rating provided [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Tin: No rating provided [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No rating provided [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities) [1] - Polysilicon: No rating provided [1] Core Views - The report provides daily updates and analysis on various non - ferrous metals, including price movements, inventory changes, and market sentiment. It also offers trading suggestions based on the current market situation for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the Shanghai copper contract increased its positions and the main contract switched to 2603. The Shanghai copper discount widened to 125 yuan, and SMM social inventory increased by 1.96 million tons to 27.38 million tons this week. The previous option strategy of selling 104,000 call options and buying 98,000 put options on the 2602 contract can still be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price declined today. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China narrowed to - 150 yuan, - 340 yuan, and - 120 yuan respectively, and the aluminum rod processing fee remained negative. Although the domestic aluminum fundamentals are weak, there is a shortage expectation in 2026. Short - term capital has pushed up the Shanghai aluminum price to a historical high with high volatility, so speculation should be cautious. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan, and aluminum smelters can consider participating in selling hedging. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 was lowered by 200 yuan to 23,100 yuan. Scrap aluminum remained in short supply, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum under macro - drive has been seasonally weaker than in previous years. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained around 95 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina market is in significant surplus. Based on the 5 - dollar reduction in the Guinea first - quarter ore long - term contract price, the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan will drop to around 2,600 yuan. The alumina spot price continues to be under pressure. After the futures price rose driven by the overall non - ferrous market, the basis decreased, and the upward trend is not sustainable [3] Zinc - Intraday, long - position holders reduced their positions at high levels. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased by 7,751 lots, and the main contract fell 1.36%. The zinc price has not reached the downstream's psychological price, so downstream buyers mainly made just - in - time purchases, and the spot trading remained light. SMM zinc inventory increased to 11.85 million tons. At the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan", there is a strong expectation of advanced consumption in 2026, and demand may not be weak in the off - season. The TC in January further decreased, and the cost support for zinc is still strong. However, the zinc ore is in a production - increasing cycle. Without a significant improvement in actual demand, the Shanghai zinc price will face significant pressure below 24,500 yuan/ton. The short - term Shanghai zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and traders can participate in band trading [4] Aluminum (in the context of lead - related text) - The SMM 1 aluminum discount to the near - month contract was 155 yuan/ton, and it was profitable to deliver for warehouse receipt. SMM aluminum social inventory increased. The import window remained open, and the overseas surplus pressure could still be transmitted to the domestic market. The Shanghai lead price was under pressure and fell back at the 17,800 yuan/ton level, failing to break through the low - level consolidation range. After the profit of secondary lead recovered, production resumed, and the price difference between refined and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton. Secondary aluminum holders sold at a discount, and downstream buyers mainly made just - in - time purchases with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Considering the increase in secondary aluminum tax costs, pay attention to the support at the 17,000 - yuan integer level when the Shanghai aluminum price corrects. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price plummeted, and the market trading was active. The market was in a "buy - on - rise" mode. Upstream steel mills and agents were strongly willing to support the price, and some agents stopped quoting and held back sales. Traders actively sold goods by offering small discounts. Driven by the bullish sentiment, some downstream buyers with rigid demand were forced to enter the market, and the trading volume of 304 - series stainless steel improved. In addition, stainless steel products were re - included in the export license management. Affected by the rush to export, the social inventory decreased rapidly. The high - nickel pig iron price was 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price began to rebound. The short - term market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 873,000 tons. The bullish trend stopped, and the nickel market entered a consolidation phase [7] Tin - The Shanghai tin price declined, and the weighted index closed below 350,000 yuan. The domestic spot tin price was 35,050 yuan, with a real - time discount of 670 yuan to the delivery month. The market is concerned about the impact of changes in futures warehouse receipts on spot supply and demand under the background of high positions and high prices. At the same time, Indonesian tin ingot exports in January are characterized by a seasonal off - season. The volatility of Shanghai tin options is at a high level, and the strategy of selling 350,000 - yuan call options can be held until expiration [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price is oscillating at a high level with strong resilience, and the market trading is active. Upstream lithium salt producers still have a mindset of holding back sales, and the volume of spot sales is limited. Some downstream material manufacturers maintain production through long - term contracts and customer - supplied channels, and only a small number of enterprises have rigid - demand purchasing behavior. The rigid - demand purchasing gap has slightly improved spot trading, and the price center has been slowly and continuously rising. The total market inventory decreased by 160 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 900 tons to 39,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 900 tons to 53,000 tons. The overall inventory reduction speed has significantly slowed down, mainly because the downstream inventory reduction is slow. Traders still have confidence in holding goods, the inventory in the middle - stream is high, and the spot market has some support. The latest price of Australian ore is 1,765 US dollars, and the ore price remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price dropped significantly today, mainly dragged down by the sentiment from the polysilicon limit - down. From a fundamental perspective, although the supply side is affected by production cuts in some regions, the January production is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons month - on - month. At the same time, the demand side is also weakening: the organic silicon industry is continuing to reduce emissions, and the operating rate is expected to decline. If the leading polysilicon enterprises in the north further cut production, the inventory accumulation pressure on industrial silicon will increase. Overall, the market is significantly affected by sentiment and the linkage with related products in the short term, and the fundamental support is insufficient. After the sharp decline, the price may have a technical rebound, but under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the overall trend is expected to remain under pressure [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price hit the limit - down today. This is mainly because the regulatory authorities have made it clear that "anti - involution" should be promoted within the framework of marketization and the rule of law. The market's expectation for capacity clearance may shift from organizational coordination to technological iteration and market competition. On the spot side, although the increase in silver costs has driven the industry chain to try to raise prices, due to weak terminal demand and high inventory, high - price transactions are limited. Therefore, the market's expectation for supply - side integration has adjusted, and combined with the current weak fundamentals, the price has significantly corrected. The subsequent market may have a technical rebound, but under the dual constraints of regulatory guidance and fundamentals, the trend of a continuous rebound faces pressure [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging on the trading floor) [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment is fluctuating, and different steel - related products have different fundamentals and price trends. Short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and market sentiment, and there may be significant fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production increased slightly, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory decreased slowly with pressure remaining [2] - Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, the reduction in blast furnace production has slowed down significantly, and molten iron production has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, domestic demand was generally weak, and steel exports remained at a high level [2] - The optimistic sentiment in the commodity market has cooled, the futures prices are under pressure to decline, and the fluctuations have intensified significantly. It is expected that there will still be fluctuations in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today, the iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. On the supply side, global shipments declined seasonally, while domestic arrivals increased month - on - month. Considering the strong overseas shipments in the early stage, it is expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and port inventory continues to increase [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Steel mill profitability has improved recently, and molten iron production has stabilized at a low level, but there will be no obvious resumption of production in the short term. Steel mill inventories of imported ore have increased but are still at a low level, and there is still a certain rigid restocking demand in the future [3] - The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations in the future [3] Coke - The intraday coke price rose and then declined. The fifth round of price cuts was suspended. Coking profits are average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly. Currently, downstream customers are making small - scale on - demand purchases, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low, and the demand for raw materials is still resilient. Although the profit level of steel has been slightly repaired, the pressure on raw material prices is still strong [4] - The coke futures price is at a premium. After the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game on the trading floor has intensified [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price rose and then declined. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the negative pressure on prices decreased slightly. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and completion of annual production tasks [5] - Spot auction transactions were acceptable, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly [5] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low, and the demand for raw materials is still resilient. Although the profit level of steel has been slightly repaired, the pressure on raw material prices is still strong [5] - The coke futures price is at a premium, and the coking coal futures price is at a discount. After the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game on the trading floor has intensified [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday silicomanganese price declined significantly. Driven by the rebound of the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The smelting end of silicomanganese pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace [6] - On the demand side, molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly, and the inventory of silicomanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" [6] - It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday ferrosilicon price declined significantly. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand decreased to more than 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand is still resilient [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution". It is recommended to buy on dips [7]

1 | 国夜期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月08日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆☆ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业PMI54.4好于预 期和前值,上期所调整白银期货交易限额、合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。开年全球地缘乱局延续, 资金情绪主导剧烈波动,贵金属在前高位置测试阻力,考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机 会。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金数据。 ★美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 ★特朗普: ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various soft - commodity markets, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped sharply today with a significant reduction in positions, as commodities fell collectively. The recent rally was driven by expectations, while downstream conditions were average. Spot sales were ordinary with a stable - to - weak basis. Although new - cotton production increased substantially, commercial inventories were lower year - on - year, and sales progress was faster, providing strong support for the market. Currently in the off - season, demand remained stable. As of December 25, cumulative lint processing was 669.7 million tons, up 75.8 million tons year - on - year. As of December 15, national cotton commercial inventories were 534.9 million tons, down 1.63 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, but the reduction range was not specified. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials was resilient with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Suggestion: Exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. Internationally, the short - term market focus was on the yield forecast gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar season, India's production progress was fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output. However, Thailand's production was slow and output was below expectations. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. In December, Guangxi's sugar production and sales both decreased. December single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, down 43.1 million tons year - on - year; sugar sales were 79.54 million tons, down 55.18 million tons year - on - year; industrial inventories were 105.71 million tons, down 6.21 million tons year - on - year. The sales decline was mainly due to strong market bearish sentiment. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season, the production progress was always slow. If production could not increase later, futures prices would rise. Suggestion: Wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices oscillated at high levels. In the spot market, mainstream prices were stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking prices of some soft - semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the producing areas mainly packed their own goods for market, with less procurement of farmers' fruit. Due to merchants starting to stock up for the Spring Festival, cold - storage trading volume increased. As of December 26, national cold - storage apple inventories were 702.1 million tons, down 12.76% year - on - year. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, down 14.17% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apples had poor quality but high purchase prices, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell might affect the destocking speed. Suggestion: Wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices dropped slightly, while butadiene rubber BR futures prices rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices increased, and the outer - market butadiene port prices continued to rise. Thailand's raw - material market prices were stable with some increases. In terms of supply, global natural rubber supply entered the production - reducing period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan accelerating to stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continuing to rise. In terms of demand, last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventories of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area increased to 54.83 million tons, with both bonded - area and general - trade inventories increasing. Before the holiday, China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 4.13 million tons. Overall, after the holiday, demand would recover, natural rubber supply would decline, synthetic rubber supply would be stable, natural rubber inventory would continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory would continue to decline, cost support would strengthen, and market sentiment would weaken. Suggestion: Wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space for pulp might be restricted. The focus was on macro and capital trends. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a 0.5% increase. The inventory continued to accumulate. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support for coniferous pulp. Recently, the outer - market quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp both increased. Paper mills' procurement of pulp was mainly based on rigid demand, and the increase in base - paper prices was relatively weak. Suggestion: Buy on dips [6] Timber - Futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, mainstream quotes were stable. In terms of supply, outer - market quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. In terms of inventory, as of January 2, the total national port log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a 5.12% increase. The total national log inventory was relatively low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, low inventory provided some support for prices. Suggestion: Wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term bullish process, it is more appropriate to allocate varieties with relatively low volatility, and it is recommended to buy silicon manganese and silicon iron on dips [2][6] - The recent price increases of silicon manganese (2.07%) and silicon iron (2.56%) are relatively large intraday increases [2] Summary by Related Content Price Performance - Today, the silicon manganese price rose 2.07% and the silicon iron price rose 2.56%, which are relatively large intraday increases [2] Policy Impact - The upcoming policy in Shaanxi to charge additional electricity fees for restricted and eliminated production capacities in the ferroalloy industry from July 1, 2026, may be driven by market sentiment and bring some upward momentum [3] - "Price recovery" or "anti - involution" information has a relatively large impact on commodity prices, and currently, there is more of an emotional positive effect on the ferroalloy industry [3] Fundamental Analysis - The main contradiction of silicon manganese lies in the structural problem of manganese ore inventory. The reduction in shipments from Gabon and Ghana will gradually manifest before the Spring Festival, with port inventory difficult to continuously accumulate and likely to gradually decline. Manganese ore prices are likely to rise, and semi - carbonate ore may rise faster than manganese oxide ore [4] - Silicon iron has relatively fewer fundamental contradictions, with a healthy oversupply in supply. Due to the reduction of electricity fees, its price and fundamentals are weaker than those of silicon manganese, but its upward momentum is more reliable from a technical analysis perspective [6]