Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Styrene: Not specified - Propylene: Not specified - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - PVC: Not specified - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PX: Not specified - PTA: Not specified - Ethylene Glycol: Not specified - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - Glass: Not specified - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows complex trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products face supply shortages, while others are affected by cost, demand, and policy factors [2][3][5] - There are risks such as demand shrinkage due to downstream profit pressure and supply - demand imbalance in the market, and at the same time, there are also potential investment opportunities in some products [2][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined, with tight supply in the short term and limited support from the demand side due to high raw material costs. There is a risk of demand shrinkage [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures were volatile. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand has been pre - consumed, and the upward - driving force for supply - demand fundamentals is insufficient [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rose due to port de - stocking and refinery production cuts. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong [3] - Styrene futures rose. The market is in a tight - balance state, with expected port de - stocking, low enterprise inventory, and export support [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are expected to decline due to weak cost support and inventory accumulation. There may be investment opportunities in the second quarter, but it depends on downstream demand [5] - Ethylene glycol is affected by new domestic production and overseas shutdowns. There may be short - term improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip production has decreased, and the processing margin has improved, but there is still long - term capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to decline. Although there is port de - stocking, demand has decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile and stalemate. There is support from reduced imports in the first quarter [6] - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also risen. The short - term market may decline slightly, but it is likely to be strong within a range as agricultural demand starts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices weakened. Production capacity utilization has declined, and cost has increased. It is expected to reduce production capacity this year, and the price center may rise [7] - Caustic soda is in a weak state, with high inventory pressure. The industry is generally in a loss, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory pressure is still high, supply pressure is large, and downstream demand is weak. A high - short strategy is recommended [8] - Glass prices declined due to ignition plans. The industry is de - stocking, but there may be an increase in supply. The order situation is poor, and there may be seasonal inventory accumulation [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Resources are brittle, and it is still advisable to go long on dips, but track the expected shift in capital liquidity. [2] 2. Core Views - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, and Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts. The market expects the first rate cut this year to be in June. Geopolitical tensions, such as Trump's tariff threats, increase global uncertainty and support gold prices. The administrative order on key minerals eases concerns about silver tariffs and liquidity shortages. [1] - The platinum and palladium market on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has calmed down after the initial enthusiasm. The price difference remains high. Although the bullish sentiment has declined due to the non - implementation of the 232 tariff, it is still advisable to go long on dips. Technically, it is at the end of a triangle consolidation, and an option strategy of buying a straddle can be considered after the second directional choice. [2] 3. Other Key Points - **Macroeconomic and Policy News** - Trump wants Hassett to stay in his original position, and Hassett promises to maintain the Fed's independence if he becomes the Fed chair. Fed officials have different views on rate cuts, with some focusing on potential lay - off risks and others emphasizing inflation control. [2] - Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries with different views on Greenland, and the EU may impose tariffs on $93 billion of U.S. goods and plans an offline summit on January 22. [3] - Trump signs an executive order on key mineral imports, setting a 180 - day negotiation window and temporarily not imposing tariffs on key minerals. [1] - **Market Conditions** - The platinum - palladium spread on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remains at a high of 140 yuan/gram. The market is at the end of a triangle consolidation, and a second directional choice is expected after volatility reduction. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel Oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] 2. Core Views - The geopolitical risk premium of crude oil has declined with the easing of the Iran situation, and the inventory pressure is significant in Q1 2026. Supply surplus is the main factor suppressing oil prices [3] - Geopolitical risks continue to support the high - sulfur cracking spread of fuel oil, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials will tend to be loose in the medium term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [4] - The asphalt price fluctuates with crude oil, and the current upward driving force is limited. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - With the easing of the Iran situation, the geopolitical risk premium has declined. The market is gradually desensitized to geopolitical news, and the geopolitical premium space is limited without actual conflicts [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply - demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus is the main factor suppressing oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical situations continue to disrupt the fuel oil market. The threat from Iran and the slowdown of Russia's shipping rhythm support the high - sulfur cracking spread [4] - However, in the medium term, the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials will tend to be loose. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [4] Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with crude oil, but the amplitude is relatively limited. The arrival in January is still expected to be sufficient according to kpler data [5] - The current upward driving force is limited after the market has priced in the expected increase in costs due to the tightened supply of Venezuelan crude oil to China. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The real - estate market remained weak overall in December 2025, with major indicators continuing to decline significantly and the decline in investment continuing to expand. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes and the restoration of the market's internal driving force [1] Group 3: Summary by Key Indicators Development Investment Completion Amount (in billion yuan) - The estimated value in 2025 was 827.88 billion. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 30.3%, in December was - 17.2%, from January to November was - 35.8%, in 2025 was - 15.9%, and in 2024 was - 10.6% [1] New Housing Starts Area (in million square meters) - The estimated value in 2025 was 587.7 million square meters. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 20.4%, in December was - 19.4%, from January to November was - 27.6%, in 2025 was - 20.5%, and in 2024 was - 23.0% [1] Commercial Housing Sales Area (in million square meters) - The estimated value in 2025 was 881.01 million square meters. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 8.7%, in December was - 15.6%, from January to November was - 12.9%, in 2025 was - 17.3%, and in 2024 was - 7.8% [1] Housing Construction Area (in million square meters) - The estimated value in 2025 was 6,598.9 million square meters. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 10.0%, in December was - 9.6%, and from January to November was - 12.7% [1] Housing Completion Area (in million square meters) - The estimated value in 2025 was 603.48 million square meters. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 18.1%, in December was - 18.3%, from January to November was - 25.5%, in 2025 was - 18.0%, and in 2024 was - 27.7% [1]

(棉花&棉纱) | | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月19日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | 女女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今天郑棉继续回调，郑棉此前上涨既有现实的支撑，也有预期和资金的推动，经过此前的上涨之后，对于利多也基本体现，下 游需求总体一般,且新疆种植面积减少情况仍有待最终观察,短期郑棉或延续调整。今天棉花现货成交一般,基差总体持稳。 截至12月底全国棉花商业库存为578.47万吨，环比增加110.11万吨，同比增加9.96 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Carbonate Lithium: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market still needs to reduce volume, and there is still some potential in the current volume and price. The market is highly concerned about the geopolitical situation. The domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. - The overseas macro uncertainty is strong, and the capital sentiment fluctuates rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan waiting for the driving force. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the market activity is not high. The alumina balance continues to be in a significant surplus, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [2]. - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is still limited, and the spot trading is weak. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and the long - position thinking is continued [6]. - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - and short - sides have different focuses. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly, and it is advisable to hold the high - level sold call options [7]. - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. - The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. Although the cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, the upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillates around 100,000. The domestic social inventory has increased to 329,400 tons, and after the delivery and month - change of the 2601 contract, the domestic spot copper is quoted at a discount. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month, and the domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". Hold the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 160 yuan, - 290 yuan, and 130 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods has recovered to around 100 yuan, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods have each increased by 13,000 tons. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the waste aluminum is still in short supply. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and the balance is in a significant surplus. When the basis is low, participate in short - selling [2]. Zinc - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the spot trading is weak. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillates at a low level, and the transfer between the internal and external zinc markets is not smooth. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumption end. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. Aluminum - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, the LME aluminum inventory has dropped to 206,000 tons, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases in late January, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has increased by 2500 tons to 63,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 10,000 tons to 844,000 tons. Continue the long - position thinking [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand under high prices. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly. Hold the high - level sold call options [7]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly. The downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak, and the overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang large factories plan to reduce production by 50% at the end of the month, affecting the monthly output by more than 60,000 tons. In February, the demand for downstream polysilicon and organic silicon continues to decline, but the decline range is limited month - on - month. The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. The cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, and leading polysilicon enterprises plan to reduce production. The January production plan has been revised down to 103,000 tons. The N - type re - feed material price is firm, with a slight increase to 54,850 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆近期政策端竞价销售的表现为出高溢价、高成交率的特点,对价格有一定的引导。现货端国产大豆市 场呈现优质优价的特点，供应端基层粮源偏紧，价格上涨之后也呈现对需求积极性的抑制。短期持续关注国产 大豆政策和现货市场的表现。 【 ...

| | | | | SUIL FUIURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月19日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | なな☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | な☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所回落。螺纹表需有所回升，产量稍有回落，累库节奏放缓。热卷需求好转，产量小幅回升,库存继续下降,压力 仍有持缓解。钢厂利润边际修复、由于下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量有所回落。从12月数据看，地产投资降幅 继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢 ...

大宗商品周度报告 2026年1月19日 能源方面，伊朗局势紧张但目前仍在可控范围，地缘政治风险溢价相应 回落。从油价波动显著加剧的表现来看，地缘反复下市场对此逐渐脱敏，除 非冲突实际发生，否则地缘溢价空间有限。EIA最新周度数据显示美国商业 原油库存意外大增，2026年第一季度的全球原油供需结构显示库存压力显 著，供应过剩仍是压制油价的主要因素，油价短期或承压运行。 化工方面，聚酯品种来看，油价回落，成本支撑弱化，需求偏弱下短期 上行驱动减弱。建材品种方面，PVC开工小幅回升，部分企业出口增加，下 游开工下滑，采购积极性不高，继续关注出口退税是否会带动抢出口带来月 差套利机会。2026年PVC有望去产能，期价重心预计会上抬。玻璃产能继 续压缩至15.01万吨，长期玻璃供给缩减，供需压力缓解，下游临近放假，或 将迎来季节性累库。 农产品方面，巴西地理与统计研究所(IBGE)预计巴西2026年大豆产量 较2025年增加2.5%。目前拉尼娜影响逐步消退，南美丰产预期重回主要交 易逻辑。上周美国生物质燃料政策确定性增强，预计3月初公布政策。短期油 脂油料或震荡运行。 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收涨1.13%，其中贵 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].