Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The US economy shows resilience as the retail sales in June 2025 had a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, the highest since March this year, and the weekly initial jobless claims were lower than the previous value and expectations. This suppresses the performance of gold prices, but gold still shows resistance. Due to strong uncertainties before the US tariff policy deadline and repeated risk sentiment, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Information - The vice - chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce stated that Thailand will propose to exempt 90% of US goods from tariffs [1] - The EU plans to add service tariffs and export controls on the US as a retaliatory measure after the breakdown of trade negotiations [1] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that the EU's value - added tax is also a form of subsidy, and the US hopes to see VAT reduction and tariff cuts [1] - The nominee for South Korea's foreign minister said he is confident of reaching an agreement before the US tariff takes effect [1] Fed Information - Kugler believes it is appropriate to keep interest rate policy stable "for some time" [2] - Daly thinks whether to cut interest rates in July or September is not the most critical [2] - Bostic said it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term [2] - Waller believes the Fed should cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper prices increased, and the weekly K - line closed positive. The 2508 contract reduced positions rapidly. The spot copper price rose to 78,660 yuan, with the Shanghai premium expanding to 175 yuan and the Guangdong premium shrinking to 45 yuan. Technically, after last week's price adjustment, LME copper traded between the MA60 and MA40 moving averages. Traders are advised to hold short positions or try to sell call options with an exercise price of 80,000 yuan and buy put options with an exercise price of 76,000 yuan on the 2508 contract [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated, with the East China spot premium at 110 yuan. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively compared to Monday. Accumulation of inventories is still difficult. After the pre - demand, the decline in demand is not more than seasonal. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation increased by 100 yuan to 19,500 yuan. The demand is weak, but the supply of scrap aluminum in the market is tight. The alumina spot price increase trend has eased but is still in a premium state. The domestic alumina operating capacity has returned to a historical high and is in an oversupply state [3] Zinc - Black prices continued to rebound, concerns about US tariffs eased, and the macro - sentiment improved. The import window remained closed, and the strong external market drove the domestic market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and it is difficult for traders to sell. The supply is expected to increase, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc has flattened. Shanghai zinc is still considered to face pressure in the rebound, waiting for short - selling opportunities around 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Lead - Both domestic and foreign markets are accumulating inventories. The export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariff issues again, and short - sellers increased positions. The weighted position of Shanghai lead increased to 104,000 lots, and the settled funds reached 1.569 billion yuan. Recycled lead is reluctant to sell at low prices, and the downstream's willingness to buy at low prices has improved. The cost - end support is still strong. Whether Shanghai lead can stop falling at 16,800 yuan/ton needs to be observed [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season, and spot transactions are weak. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. The inventories of nickel iron, pure nickel, and stainless steel have all increased, but the overall inventory level is still high. Technically, Shanghai nickel still has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions and closed positive. The main contract changed quickly this month, and the 2509 contract has become the main position - holding contract. The spot tin price increased by 3,600 yuan to 265,500 yuan. Technically, it is recommended to use the MA60 moving average as the boundary between strength and weakness. Continue to pay attention to the change of the low inventory of 2,000 tons overseas. Hold previous high - position short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded and reached a high level. The market trading was active. A series of shutdown news maintained market enthusiasm, but there was obvious selling pressure around 70,000 yuan. The total market inventory is high, and traders buy at low prices. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 705 US dollars, with a large rebound from the low level. There is a strong hedging demand for lithium carbonate futures prices in the range of 67,000 - 70,000 yuan. Short - sellers should use position dispersion to defend [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures prices slightly declined, while the spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon continued to rise to 8,850 yuan/ton. The downstream polysilicon is expected to increase demand due to the resumption of production of leading enterprises, and the operating rate of silicone monomer plants has continued to rise. On the supply side, large factories have not resumed production after previous shutdowns, and the weekly output in Xinjiang has continued to decline slightly. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices slightly declined. According to SMM, the expected increase in silicon wafer quotes and cost calculation result in a comprehensive price of 43,870 yuan/ton. The "weak reality" is mainly concentrated in the inventory level. With the resumption of production of some bases of leading enterprises, there may be a slight increase in inventory. Policy expectations are still the main trading logic, and the overall trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening [11]

Group 1: Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 09 contract rising 1.37%. Kurdish oil production decreased by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day due to drone attacks, but the upward drive from strong reality factors has weakened, and there are still trade - war risks in July. Short - term prices are likely to remain in a volatile pattern [1] Precious Metals - US economic data showed resilience, suppressing gold prices, but gold remained resilient. Uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline is high, and precious metals are mainly in a volatile state [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher. Good US retail sales boosted risk - asset trading sentiment. After the price decline, LME copper traded between the MA60 and 40 - day moving averages. SMM social inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons this week [3] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. Aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories decreased. After breaking the upward trend line, it is in a volatile state waiting for consumption feedback [4] Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity has reached a historical high and is in an oversupply state. The inventory of SHFE warehouse receipts is still low. The upward trend of spot prices has eased, but it is still at a premium, and the downside space of futures is limited after continuous decline [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation is stable at 19,500 yuan. Demand is weak, but scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the industry has negative profits but shows some resilience relative to aluminum prices [6] Zinc - In the consumption off - season, downstream willingness to buy at high prices is low. Due to the "anti - involution" policy, zinc price correction is difficult. The mid - term idea is to short on rallies, waiting for opportunities around 23,000 yuan [7] Lead - Middle - East tariff hikes on Chinese lead - acid batteries and inventory accumulation have pressured lead prices. Kazakhstan's export ban on unforged aluminum strengthens domestic cost support. Attention should be paid to whether Shanghai aluminum can stop falling around 16,800 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded with active trading. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, with weak spot sales. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventories have increased. Technically, Shanghai nickel still has room to rebound, waiting for better short - selling opportunities [9] Tin - Overnight, LME tin recovered its decline, and Shanghai tin fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the low inventory in overseas markets and the resumption of supply of tin concentrates. Hold previous high - level short positions [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded. There is strong selling pressure around 70,000 yuan. Total inventory is high, and traders buy at low prices. The futures price has strong hedging demand in the 67,000 - 70,000 yuan range, and abundant supply restricts the rebound space [11] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures strengthened significantly. The downstream price increase has begun to transmit costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures continued to strengthen. Downstream polysilicon production is expected to increase in July, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt changes [13] Iron and Steel - Night - session steel prices continued to rise. Rebar demand declined, and production decreased, with a slight inventory increase. Hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production decreased, and inventory slightly declined. The market focus is on off - season demand and policy changes [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices continued to rebound. Supply has a short - term decline risk, and demand can maintain a relatively high level in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate with steel products [15] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The first round of price increases was fully implemented, with a smaller - than - expected increase. It follows steel prices and is less affected by the "anti - involution" policy [16] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Environmental inspections in Wuhai affected coal transportation. The total inventory decreased, and it follows steel prices and is less affected by the "anti - involution" policy [17] Manganese Silicon - Prices fluctuated upward. Manganese ore inventory is low in the short term, and price support is increasing. It follows rebar prices but has limited upward momentum [18] Silicon Iron - Prices fluctuated upward. Iron - water production decreased slightly. Demand is fair, and it follows rebar prices but has limited upward momentum [19] Group 2: Shipping and Energy Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot market prices may rise. Supply pressure will gradually appear in August, and the short - term market will enter a volatile stage [20] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The high - low sulfur spread is declining. FU cracking is expected to continue the downward trend, and LU follows crude oil [21] Asphalt - Social inventory slightly increased, and factory inventory decreased. Supply increase resilience needs to be observed, and low inventory supports prices [22] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Middle - East production pressure remains, and the domestic market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation. The summer off - season pattern remains, and the price is volatile and weak [22] Group 3: Chemicals Urea - Daily production decreased slightly, and supply is sufficient. The market is expected to be in a supply - demand - loose situation in the short term, and the price is likely to be volatile and strong within a range [23] Methanol - Import arrivals increased, and port inventory accumulated rapidly. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [24] Pure Benzene - Night - session prices were weak. It is expected to be moderately boosted by the oil - price rebound. There is a supply pressure in the short term. Seasonal improvement is expected in the third - quarter later stage, and it is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [25] Styrene - The crude - oil market has a multi - empty game, and the short - term trend may be wide - range volatile. Supply is sufficient, and spot sales are weak [26] Polypropylene and Plastic - Polyolefin futures were volatile and weak. Polyethylene supply will increase, and demand support is limited. Polypropylene has bottom support, but demand is weak [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices were narrowly volatile. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Caustic - soda supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be under pressure at high levels [28] PX and PTA - PX and PTA prices rebounded. PX demand is weakening, and PTA has a drive to repair the processing spread [29] Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production decreased, and arrivals were low. The price is volatile and strong. Supply contraction is beneficial to market improvement in the short term [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - fiber production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Bottle - chip enterprises cut production, and inventory increased slightly [31] Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices were strong during the day. Inventory decreased this week, and the price is expected to follow the macro - sentiment in the short term. In the long term, supply contraction is needed for a significant price increase [32] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International oil prices rose, and the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase. Rubber supply is increasing, demand is improving, and the strategy is to go long on rebounds [33] Soda Ash - Soda - ash prices were strong during the day. The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to follow costs and the macro - situation in the short term, and there is limited upward space in the long term [34] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybean good - quality rate increased. Domestic soybean - meal prices rose, and inventory increased. Attention should be paid to the US soybean - growing area weather and the August 1 tariff node [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm - oil prices strengthened. Indonesia's palm - oil export competitiveness increased, and there is a bio - diesel demand expectation. Long - term, a long - on - dips strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market is affected by economic and trade expectations. Supply may be uncertain, and the price is expected to rise in the short term [37] Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybean prices continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [38] Corn - China Grain Reserves Corporation's auctions affected market expectations. US corn is growing well, and Dalian corn futures are expected to continue bottom - range fluctuations [39] Live Pigs - Live - pig futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices continued to fall, and supply is increasing. There is a downward pressure on prices in the medium term [40] Eggs - Egg futures prices fell, with the off - season contracts under pressure. Spot prices rose, and attention should be paid to the rebound strength [41] Cotton - US cotton prices fluctuated higher, and domestic demand is average. Cotton inventory is expected to be tight, supporting price increases. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [42] Sugar - US sugar prices were volatile. Brazilian production expectations are negative, and domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to be volatile [43] Apples - Futures prices were volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased. The market focus is on the new - season yield estimate, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] Wood - Futures prices rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and there is an expectation of price increase due to low inventory. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [45] Pulp - Futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices were stable. Port inventory decreased slightly, but supply is still relatively loose. Demand is in the off - season, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or do short - term operations [46] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - share prices fluctuated higher, and overseas stock markets also rose. In the short term, the domestic risk - preference pattern is volatile and strong, and continue to pay attention to policy signals. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury - bond futures prices were in a volatile consolidation state. The central bank increased net investment, and the bond market may have increased fluctuations in the short term [48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, representing a bias towards an upward trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices may turn into a volatile and pressured state in July, but there is still a possibility of rising again in August. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is declining. Asphalt prices are supported by low inventories, and the LPG market is in a weak state with a downward - trending disk [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SG08 contract falling 0.12% intraday. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.859 million barrels, but the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories raised demand concerns. Since May, oil prices have been supported by peak - season procurement expectations, but recently, the spot premium and monthly spread of crude oil have not strengthened further. In July, the negative impact of the trade war on oil prices is greater than the positive impact of geopolitical factors. In August, if the European diesel contradiction persists, the market may rise again [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel - related futures are all weak, with LU falling more deeply. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has started to decline since mid - July. Under the OPEC+ production - increase path, there is an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy resources globally. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil production areas such as Russia and Iran is relatively limited in the short term. The actual incremental effect of the previous pilot project of increasing the deduction ratio of fuel oil consumption tax in China is limited, and demand lacks drivers. FU cracking is expected to maintain a downward trend. The unilateral trend of LU mainly follows crude oil [2] Asphalt - Social inventories have slightly increased, while factory inventories have significantly decreased month - on - month, mainly driven by accelerated inventory reduction in East China. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has slightly increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has decreased by 1 percentage point compared to the end of June. Overall, the resilience of asphalt supply increase remains to be observed, demand is still weak but there is a repair expectation, and low inventories still support prices. Today, crude oil has slightly declined, while BU has slightly increased, and cracking has also strengthened [3] LPG - The production - increase pressure in the Middle East persists. Although chemical procurement in the Far East has increased, overseas prices continue to be weak and volatile. Recently, import costs have continued to decline, but the weak prices of terminal products have kept PDH gross profit stable. PDH has continued to add maintenance, and the domestic supply and demand are both weak recently, with the domestic gas price facing downward pressure at the top. Crude oil has declined, and the off - season pattern in summer remains unchanged, with the disk trend being weak and volatile [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for price decline, but poor operability on the market [1] - Logs: Not explicitly rated in the provided content Core Views - The prices of various commodities in the soft commodities market show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and weather. Overall, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations for most commodities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise sharply, with the spot sales basis of domestic cotton firm. The cotton industry chain showed stronger raw materials, and the price of pure cotton yarn increased. There may be a short - squeeze situation due to the post - point - pricing behavior of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased, while that of Xinjiang spinning enterprises remained high. As of the end of June, the commercial cotton inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons compared with the end of May. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June was still heavy, affecting the sugarcane harvesting progress, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, the sales rate increased, and the industrial inventory decreased. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. New early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices began to decline. The demand for apples was low due to the large number of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 11, the national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year. The market's trading focus shifted to the new season. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased thinking [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - RU&MR rose, BR fluctuated. The domestic natural rubber price increased slightly, and the synthetic rubber price generally rose. The global natural rubber supply was entering the high - yield period. In June, the synthetic rubber production increased year - on - year, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week. In June, the output of Chinese rubber tires decreased year - on - year. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded slightly, and that of semi - steel tires rebounded significantly. The inventory in Qingdao area increased. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - The pulp futures rose slightly. The spot prices remained stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China decreased compared with the previous period. The pulp import in June was still high year - on - year. The supply of pulp was relatively loose, the demand was weak, and it was in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation was low, and domestic counter - subsidies boosted sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price rebounded sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The main reason for the rebound was that the spot price was at a historical low with limited downward space. The port arrival volume and inventory were low, and the spot price was expected to rise. The demand was in the off - season, and the inventory was low. The supply was expected to be favorable, but the price lacked the power to continue rebounding. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish bias but limited trading opportunity [1] - Bottle Chips: Not specified [1] - Urea: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: Not specified [1] - Plastic: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - PTA: Not specified [1] - Short Fibre: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] Core Views - The methanol market is supported by inland supply, but demand is entering the off - season [2]. - The short - term supply - demand of the domestic urea market is expected to be loose, and the market is likely to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. - The polyolefin market has supply recovery and weak demand issues [4]. - The pure benzene market has a weak cost support and supply pressure, with seasonal improvement expected in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [5]. - The styrene market has sufficient supply and poor spot trading [6]. - The polyester market has different situations for PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibre and bottle chips, with various supply - demand and profit conditions [7]. - The PVC market has increased supply and weak demand, while the caustic soda market has profit improvement but high - price sales issues [8]. - The glass market has better supply - demand than soda ash, and the glass - soda ash spread is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and ports are rapidly accumulating inventory. Some enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and production enterprise inventory has little change [2]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuate strongly. Daily production decreases slightly, supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Production enterprise inventory is transferred to downstream and ports, with enterprises de - stocking and ports stocking up quickly. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures fluctuate narrowly and are weak. PE supply will recover as some devices restart, and demand from North China's agricultural film has limited impact. PP has many maintenance devices providing support, but off - season demand is weak [4]. Pure Benzene - The price of benzene is weak. Cost support is weakening, domestic production is increasing slightly, and port supplies are abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the second half of Q3, but pressure in Q4. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [5]. Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures opens low and fluctuates narrowly. The cost - end crude oil market has a multi - empty game. Styrene has high operating loads and increasing port inventory, and downstream procurement is on - demand [6]. Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate. PX supply - demand improves, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has a drive to repair the processing spread. Ethylene glycol prices rise due to port de - stocking and unstable overseas devices. Short fibre has a slight de - stocking and profit repair. Bottle chips enterprises cut production, but inventory increases slightly [7]. Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuates narrowly. Manufacturers de - stock slightly, but social inventory increases. New devices are put into operation, and downstream orders are insufficient. Caustic soda fluctuates strongly, with profit improvement driving device restart, but high - price sales are poor [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass runs strongly, with inventory decreasing and downstream restocking. It is expected to fluctuate with the macro - mood. Soda ash runs strongly, but the spot market is weak, with high supply and inventory. The glass - soda ash spread is expected to strengthen [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆★ [1] - Hot-rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is influenced by "anti-involution", with low-positioned industrial products remaining strong, but the actual implementation of policies is yet to be seen, and the rhythm may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. - The short-term trend of iron ore is expected to fluctuate with steel products, and the risk of increased volatility should be noted [3]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by the "anti-involution" to a limited extent, and their prices mainly follow the trend of steel products [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices follow the trend of thread, with limited ability to rise and are expected to face pressure [7][8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures strengthened. This week, the apparent demand for thread dropped significantly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly accumulated. The demand for hot-rolled steel increased slightly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased. The molten iron production is slowly declining but remains at a relatively high level. With low inventory, the market feedback pressure is small. Attention should be paid to the demand absorption capacity during the off-season [2]. - In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand is still weak, while exports remain at a relatively high level [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures continued to rebound. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume is currently high but may decline in the future. Port inventory continues to decline slightly without significant pressure to accumulate [3]. - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak during the off-season, but steel mills are still profitable and have little incentive to cut production actively. Molten iron production can remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The uncertainty of overseas trade has decreased, and the market expects the introduction of domestic policies, with optimistic sentiment [3]. Coke - Today's coke futures declined. The first round of price increases in the coking industry has been fully implemented, but the increase is smaller than expected, and profits are meager. Coke production has been declining, and overall inventory has hardly changed. Traders' purchasing willingness has increased [4]. Coking Coal - Today's coking coal futures declined. Environmental inspections in Wuhai have tightened, affecting coal transportation. The production of coking coal mines continues to increase, and the spot auction market has improved, with transaction prices rising significantly and terminal inventory increasing [6]. - The total coking coal inventory has decreased, and production-side inventory has decreased significantly. It is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - Today's silicon manganese futures declined. Due to continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase, and on-book inventory has started to rise. In the long term, manganese ore inventory is increasing, and in the short term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines are more willing to hold prices [7]. Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon futures declined. Molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 239. A large northern steel mill's July ferrosilicon tender inquiry price is 5400 yuan/ton, and the June price was 5500 yuan/ton. The July tender quantity is 2700 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous round. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact [8]. - The supply of ferrosilicon continues to decline, market transactions are average, on-book inventory continues to decrease, but production-side inventory has begun to increase, mainly due to the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - **Soybean Oil**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Palm Oil**: Three red stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Soybean Meal**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: One red star, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Corn**: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, recommending to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Eggs**: One red star, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of agricultural products show different trends, affected by factors such as weather, policies, trade, and supply - demand relationships. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance, and long - term thinking for vegetable oils is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans maintain a rebound trend. There is a risk of short - term waterlogging in some areas in the future week. Policy - related bidding procurement had zero transactions today. There is a risk of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the southern US soybean - producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in North China rose by 40 yuan per ton today. The oil mill's operating rate remains high, and soybean meal inventory continues to increase. The demand - side提货量 is also at a high level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. Pay attention to possible Sino - US trade news tonight and the August 1st tariff node. The price trend of soybean meal mainly depends on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both domestic oil and meal prices are rising, with meal stronger than oil. There is a risk of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the southern US soybean - producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days. The palm oil main contract continues to strengthen. In the long - term, the development of biodiesel can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying vegetable oils on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather guidance [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal had a significant increase today due to changes in economic and trade expectations. Canada's plan to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel products has raised concerns about Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Although there is growth potential in Sino - Australian rapeseed trade, there are uncertainties in direct rapeseed imports. It is expected that the trend of rapeseed product inventory reduction will continue, and short - term prices may rise [6] Corn - Dalian corn oscillated sideways today. The increased auction sales by CGS have affected market expectations. There will be a US - imported corn auction tomorrow, with a quantity of about 300,000 tons. US corn is growing well, and Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig 19 contract strengthened after hitting a new low during the day and closed slightly higher. The spot price continued to decline, and the supply is accelerating. In the first half of the year, pork production increased by 1.3%. At the end of the second quarter, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In the first half of the year, the number of live pigs slaughtered was 366.19 million, an increase of 0.6%. The industry supply is abundant in the later period, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term. The industry can participate in short - selling hedging at high prices and pay attention to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on prices [8] Eggs - Egg futures decreased with increasing positions, mainly in off - season contracts such as October and November. Due to high production capacity and insufficient culling, off - season contracts are under pressure, while the peak - season contract 09 is still relatively supported. The spot price rose today, and the seasonal demand peak is approaching. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 | Millio | >国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月17日 | | 黄金 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | な☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国PPI低于预期,消息称特朗普有意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔并已起草解雇信件向共和党人征求意见, 美元资产一度回落国际金价上涨，但此后特朗普予以否认市场恢复平稳。事件驱动下贵金属表现敏感，美国 关税政策截止日前各方谈判仍有空间，风险情绪可能反复，贵金属震荡为主。今晚 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different industries affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, weather conditions, and trade policies. Short - term market risk preference is slightly bullish, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology growth assets on the basis of dividend assets [2][49]. Summary by Industry Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. In July, the negative impact of trade wars may outweigh the positive impact of geopolitical factors, causing oil prices to be under pressure. In August, there is a possibility of a price increase if the European diesel contradiction persists [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Under the OPEC+ production increase plan, the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to rise. FU cracking is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's single - side trend follows crude oil, and its cracking may enter an oscillatory pattern [22]. - **Asphalt**: The supply increase of asphalt needs further observation, demand remains weak but has recovery potential, and inventory at a low level supports prices. The single - side trend follows crude oil, and the upward driving force is limited before demand improves [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle East production pressure persists, overseas prices are oscillating weakly, and the domestic market is experiencing weak supply and demand. The futures market is oscillating weakly [24]. - **Urea**: The supply is abundant, agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and the market is expected to be in a state of balanced supply and demand. The market is likely to oscillate within a certain range [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has increased significantly, and ports are accumulating inventory. Some domestic enterprises may postpone maintenance. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support weakens as oil prices decline, and there is supply pressure in the short term. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter, and it is recommended to use a monthly spread band - trading strategy [27]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost end is oscillating, the supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak, resulting in poor spot trading [28]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The polyethylene supply pressure increases as maintenance devices restart, and the demand is weak. Polypropylene has bottom support from maintenance devices, but the demand is still weak [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply increases, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, and the futures price is expected to be weak [30]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply - demand improves, but PTA demand weakens, dragging down PX. PTA has a driving force for upward repair of processing margins [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a possibility of supply contraction, and it is recommended to have a short - term long position, with the main risk being a decline in oil prices [32]. - **Short Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short fiber demand shows resilience, and it can be treated bullishly. Bottle chip production is cut, orders are weak, and the spot profit is recovering [33]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The performance of precious metals is sensitive to event - driven factors, and they are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales data [3]. - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and closed lower. It is recommended that short - position holders consider option strategies [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum market is fluctuating narrowly, and there is short - term callback pressure due to inventory accumulation in the off - season [5]. - **Alumina**: The upward trend of the alumina spot price eases, the production capacity is in a surplus state, and the futures price is unlikely to decline significantly [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with weak demand but certain resilience due to tight scrap aluminum supply [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The price is under pressure to decline, and it is advisable to wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel market has room for rebound, and it is advisable to wait for a better short - selling position. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the spot trading is weak [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price declined, and it is recommended to short [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding, but the supply is abundant, and it is advisable to start short - position layout [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is slightly correcting, the fundamentals are improving marginally, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the change in warehouse receipts [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is rebounding, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [14]. - **Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil**: The steel price is strengthening again. The demand is weak, and the market is waiting for the implementation of substantial measures. The short - term trend may be volatile [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is rising. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is at a relatively high level, and the short - term trend follows that of steel products, with limited upward space [16]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating downward. The price increase is expected to be implemented, and the price follows that of steel products [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating downward. The supply is increasing, and the price follows that of steel products [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price is under pressure, and it follows the trend of rebar [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is under pressure, and it follows the trend of rebar [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: There is news about a potential Sino - US trade agreement, which affects the prices of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal. Attention should be paid to trade news and weather in the US soybean - producing areas [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans is rising, and attention should be paid to weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Palm oil is in an adjustment state. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy for vegetable oils in the long term [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed is likely to oscillate weakly in the short term. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as potential imports from Australia [39]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price is rebounding. Attention should be paid to weather in the northeastern region and policy changes [40]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn price is oscillating downward. The US corn is growing well, and the domestic corn market may continue to decline [41]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs has dropped significantly, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to decline in the medium term [42]. - **Egg**: The egg futures price is oscillating and correcting. The short - term downward space is limited, and the long - term cycle has not reached the bottom [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is growing well, and the USDA report is bearish. The Zhengzhou cotton price is restricted by weak demand, but the inventory is expected to be tight, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to production data and weather [45]. - **Apple**: The futures price is oscillating. The new - season apple production is estimated to be bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [46]. - **Timber**: The timber price is oscillating. The supply is limited, but the demand is in the off - season, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price is slightly declining. The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract will converge with the spot price, and the upward space of the far - month contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the spot price [21]. - **Stock Index**: The short - term market risk preference is slightly bullish. In terms of market style, it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology growth assets on the basis of dividend assets [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures price is oscillating. The global interest - rate cut trend is slowing down, and the domestic bond market may experience increased volatility [50].