★格陵兰岛问题——①加拿大军方模拟美国"军事入侵"场景。②特朗普威胁对法国葡萄酒和香槟征收200% 关税。③美国计划削减约200个涉北约机构职位。④特朗普P图将格陵兰岛、加拿大和委内瑞拉纳入美国版 图。 ★特朗普重返白宫一周年记者会部分内容：列举365硕成就、借妻子之口自比巴菲特、"收回"巴拿马运河 在考虑范围内、不会前往巴黎参加G7会议、考虑让马查多以"某种方式"参与委内瑞拉事务、明年美国将不 会出现贸易逆差、联合国应继续存在但"和平委员会"可能取而代之。 ★美最高法院未就特朗普全球关税合法性挑战作出裁决，下个裁决窗口在一个月后。 ★ADP周度就业报告:截至2025年12月27日的四周里,私人部门庭主平均每周增加8000个就业岗位。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 国长期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月21日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆★ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various soft commodities are different, with some facing adjustment pressure and others showing recovery trends. Overall, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most commodities [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today. After previous increases, it may continue to adjust due to general downstream demand and uncertain reduction in Xinjiang planting area. As of end - December, national cotton commercial inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. In December, domestic cotton imports were 18 million tons, up 4.41 million tons year - on - year and 6.13 million tons month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian market focuses on next season's production. Expected lower rainfall in Q1 and reduced sugar - making ratio may lead to less sugar production in 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall. Production and sales progress is slow. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [3] Apple - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. During Spring Festival stocking, procurement of farmers' apples was less. As of January 16, national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 6.93% year - on - year. Last week's de - stocking volume was 17.8 million tons, down 50.36% year - on - year. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR futures prices rose slightly, butadiene rubber BR futures price rose sharply. Global natural rubber supply is in a reduction period. Chinese tire start - up rate rebounded last week. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 58.49 million tons. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures fell slightly today. Due to weak downstream demand, short - term fundamentals are average. As of January 15, Chinese paper pulp port inventory was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last period. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [7] Logs - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. External quotation decreased, and short - term arrival volume will reduce. As of January 16, national port log inventory was 257 million cubic meters, down 4.46% month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [8]

| | | | V V & SUIL FUIURES | | 2026年01月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | なな☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | なな☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约大幅减仓,价格下跌。国产大豆本周三中储粮举行双向竞价专场,计划竞价拍卖数量3.3万 吨，全部成交，成交低价为3950元/吨，成交均价为3950元/吨,溢价为零。溢价程度不如前期表现。持续关注 政策端 ...

| 11/11/2 | 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月21日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | 女女女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 | 纯碱 | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ★☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 本报告版权属于 ...

国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/1/20 农产品板块持仓量维持低位 商品本周多头占比回落,主要表现有色 板块因子强度回落，农产品和和化工板 块持续位于低位。目前,截面偏强的板 块是贵金属,截面偏弱的是化工和农产 品。具体来看，黄金时序动量小幅上 升,尽管白影动量维持中性偏强,但白 银的持仓量出现边际下降。有色板块短 周期动量下降,期限结构分化收窄,截 CTA 面上锡和铅偏空。黑色板块短周期动量 边际小幅回落,焦煤焦炭持仓量降幅较 大。能化板块短周期动量截面分化扩 大,玻璃和乙二醇偏空。农产品整体短 周期动量小幅下降,油粕期限结构分化 收窄。 用 醇 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走弱 0.39%,库存因子走低0.18%,价差因子 走弱0.10%, 合成因子下行0.31%, 本周 综合信号多头。基本面因子上,进口甲 醇到港量持续减少,供给端多头延续; 甲醇制烯烃行业开工率下降,需求端中 性偏空;甲醇港口呈现去库,库存端多 头;甲醇现货价格释放空头信号,华东 基差释放多头信号,价差端中性。 | | | 动量时序 动量截面 期限结构 | | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand, with limited short - term upside potential for oil prices [2]. - Precious metals remain strong, and a long - position mindset should be maintained [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and energy and chemical products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., as well as agricultural products including soybeans, corn, etc., each have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [4][22][36]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions are controllable, supply is relatively loose, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term upside of oil prices is limited, and the market is under pressure [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. High - sulfur fuel oil may be strong in the near - term due to geopolitical uncertainties, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure but has some support from the rise in gasoline and diesel cracking spreads [22]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuates with crude oil, and the market is in an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: They continue to be strong, and a long - position mindset should be maintained due to the weakening confidence in US dollar assets [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price dropped overnight. It is recommended to hold an option combination and consider short - selling with a small position [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price continued to adjust. The support level for Shanghai aluminum is at 23,500 yuan after breaking 23,800 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The price slightly declined. In the short - term, it is not expected to fall deeply, but there is downward pressure in the medium - term [8]. - **Lead**: The price is in a low - level oscillation pattern, with a price range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in a high - level oscillation, and a long - position mindset should be maintained [10]. - **Tin**: The price opened high and closed low. Attention should be paid to the substantial reduction in positions of Shanghai tin [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, and risk prevention should be noted [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is likely to oscillate, and there is hedging pressure above the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds weakly, and the spot price is expected to rise steadily [14]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: The price oscillates in a range. Demand expectations are weak, and attention should be paid to market trends [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [16]. - **Coke**: The price is likely to follow a weak oscillation [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is likely to follow a weak oscillation [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates downward. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates downward. The supply decreases significantly, and demand has some resilience [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is weakly stable. In the short - term, it may decline slightly, while in the long - term, it is likely to oscillate strongly within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to oscillate and remain stalemate [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillates strongly in the short - term [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation supports the price [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is tight, but demand support is expected to weaken, and the upward driving force of the supply - demand fundamentals may be insufficient [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to increase in the long - term, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. Caustic soda continues to be weak [29]. - **PX & PTA**: In the second quarter, there are opportunities for PX processing margin and positive spreads, and the PTA processing margin is moderately repaired [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillates at the bottom. In the second quarter, supply - demand may improve, but it is under long - term pressure [31]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber follows the cost, and bottle - grade chip has some improvement in processing margin but faces long - term capacity pressure [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The price is in a weak situation. In the long - term, it needs to reduce capacity, and low - buying opportunities can be considered when the price drops to around 1,000 yuan [33]. Rubber - **20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The demand is gradually recovering, the supply of natural rubber is decreasing, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [34]. Agriculture - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: South American weather is improving, and the US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range [37]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [38]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price drops, and attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [39]. - **Corn**: The price of Dalian corn futures is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [40]. - **Pigs**: The short - term rebound of hog futures may end, and the price is expected to reach a low point in the first half of next year [41]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the prices of futures and spot are weakening, while in the long - term, a low - buying strategy can be maintained [42]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level oscillation. It may continue to adjust, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar markets have different production situations, and short - term sugar prices face some pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price回调, and the market focus shifts to demand [45]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46]. - **Pulp**: The price rises slightly. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the increase in the price of downstream base paper [47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares fell, and short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and the subsequent changes in the sharp fluctuations of US and Japanese bonds [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, the yield curve may remain steep, and opportunities to flatten the curve can be considered [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ [2] Core Views - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand. The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited unless there is a significant disruption in oil supply due to conflicts [3]. - The fuel oil market is still dominated by geopolitical factors. High-sulfur fuel oil is affected by geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran tension, and its near-term prices are relatively strong. Low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to the marginal increase in supply, but it is supported by the upward movement of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads [4]. - The asphalt market follows the trend of crude oil, but its price fluctuations are relatively limited. The market is in a range-bound pattern, and the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump's administration postponed military action against Iran, causing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to partially reverse. The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the market is mainly under pressure due to loose supply and demand [3]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. High-sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten if Iranian exports are blocked, and the US high-sulfur market is suppressed by increased imports of Venezuelan raw materials. In the medium term, supply is expected to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil is supported by winter demand, but supply pressure is emerging as overseas refineries increase production. The absolute price of fuel oil follows crude oil, with high-sulfur being stronger in the near term and low-sulfur under pressure [4]. Asphalt - The asphalt market follows the trend of crude oil, but its price fluctuations are relatively limited. The market is in a range-bound pattern after factoring in the expected increase in costs due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China. The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored [5].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆★, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward movement, but limited operability in the market [1] Group 2: Core Views - Today, gold and silver reached new all - time highs. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Iran - related trading countries and European countries related to Greenland, along with the European response of counter - measures, has increased global uncertainties and risks. The challenge to the global order by Trump has brought concerns to the fragile economic outlook, leading funds to flow into the gold market and maintaining the upward trend of precious metals [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Information - **Greenland Issue**: Germany's finance minister will strongly respond to US tariffs; France and Germany agree to take tough actions against US tariff threats related to Greenland; EU leaders will hold an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday; Danish officials will miss the Davos Forum due to the escalation of the Greenland dispute; Greenland's prime minister says the US tariff threats won't change their stance [2] - **IMF Forecast**: The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow by 3.3% in 2026, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the October forecast last year, and 3.2% in 2027, the same as the October forecast last year [2] - **Fed News**: According to AP, Fed Chairman Powell will attend the Supreme Court hearing regarding Fed Governor Cook [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The Q4 GDP had a 1.2% quarter - on - quarter growth [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous value, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%, 0.05 percentage points higher than the previous value. The growth rates of mining and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water declined, while the manufacturing growth rate accelerated [1] - From January to December 2025, the year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 3.8 percentage points, with a month - on - month decline of 1.13%. Manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment had a growth rate of - 1.48%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.20% [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.3%, and the month - on - month decline was 0.40% [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators GDP - The GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates in 2025 were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The quarterly GDP growth rates were 1.0% in Q2, 1.1% in Q3, and 1.2% in Q4. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates were 5.3% in Q2, 5.2% in Q3, and 5.0% in Q4 [1] Industrial Added Value - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to December was 5.9%. Among the three major sectors, the growth rates of mining and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water declined, while the manufacturing growth rate accelerated [1] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to December 2025, the year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 3.8 percentage points, and the month - on - month decline was 1.13%. Manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment had a growth rate of - 1.48%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.20% [1] Real Estate - The cumulative year - on - year decline of real estate development investment from January to December 2025 was 17.20%. The cumulative year - on - year decline of commercial housing sales area was 8.7%. The year - on - year declines of new housing starts, housing construction, housing completion, and real estate development funds in December were 19.3%, 47.14%, 18.36%, and 28.09% respectively [1] Social Retail Sales - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.3%, and the month - on - month decline was 0.40%. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to December was 3.7% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand, and the short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited [3] - The fuel oil market is still dominated by geopolitical factors, with high-sulfur fuel oil being strong in the near term due to geopolitical disturbances and low-sulfur fuel oil being pressured by increasing marginal supply [4] - The asphalt price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and the current upward driving force is limited, falling into a range-bound pattern [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump's administration postponed military action against Iran, causing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to partially reverse. Unless there is a significant disruption in oil supply, the short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the market is dominated by a bearish pattern of loose supply and demand [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. For high-sulfur fuel oil, geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran tension are in focus. If Iranian exports are blocked, regional supply will tighten. In the medium term, supply tends to be loose due to abundant raw materials, floating storage, and high inventories. For low-sulfur fuel oil, winter demand provides some support, but overseas refinery supply is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. The absolute price of fuel oil follows crude oil, with high-sulfur being strong in the near term and low-sulfur being pressured by increasing supply [4] Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the crude oil price but with a relatively limited amplitude. After the current market has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightened supply of Venezuelan oil to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it has entered a range-bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [5]