1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given text. The report mainly provides data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including their prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), IV quantiles, skew indices, and related historical trends. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The report covers multiple financial products including 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, Shanghai CSI 500ETF, Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, Shenzhen 100ETF, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF, 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] - The current month's contract expiration is 9 days away for most products, except for the 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index, where it is 6 days away [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] 3.2 Price and Price Change Data - For each product, the report provides the price, price change percentage, current - month IV, and next - month IV for specific dates (2025/9/29, 2025/9/30, 2025/10/9) [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] 3.3 Implied Volatility (IV) Data - IV quantiles for the current month and next month over the past 1 and 2 years are provided for each product [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] - ATM IV term structures and intraday trends of different - month at - the - money IV are presented [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] 3.4 Skew Index Data - The skew index is calculated as the ratio of the implied volatility of a call option with a delta of 0.75 to that of a call option with a delta of 0.25. The skew index values for the current day, yesterday, two days ago, three days ago, and four days ago are provided for each product [2][7][18][22][30][37][43][51][56][66][70][76] 3.5 Other Data - Smile curves of the main - month options for each product are presented [2][5][18][21][30][36][42][50][55][66][70][75] - Price, IV, and volume trends over the past 1 and 3 years are provided for each product [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] - Price, IV, and open - interest PCR trends are also provided for each product [2][8][18][23][30][38][45][53][58][66][70][77]

能源团队 研究院 李海群 Z0021515 2025.10.9 【国投期货|航运论事】 巴以冲突缓和抬升复航预期，欧线远月合约 领跌 就年内合约而言，在当前现货运价持续走低的背景下，航司宣涨意愿预计将逐步增强。节前已有部分航 司宣布自 10 月中旬起提涨报价，预计从本周起，航司将陆续推出 11 月涨价计划，而随着 10 月下旬货主启 动圣诞节备货，货量有望逐步回升。若船公司能配合实施一定空班措施，或将部分兑现涨幅，进而提振现货 及期货市场情绪。特别是对 12 月合约而言，由于年内复航概率仍较低，该合约在旺季预期支撑下或表现相 对坚挺。但需注意，航司对 12 月的挺价传统本质上服务于年末长协签约，在复航预期与运力过剩的双重压 制下，今年长协均价预计低于去年，挺价目标受限。多空交织下，12 合约预计宽幅震荡。 免责声明：国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供国投期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的机构或个人客户（以下 简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。如接收人并非国投期货客户，请及时退回并删除。 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信 ...

| Millio | > 国反期员 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月09日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 国庆期间贵金属延续强势,国际金价突破四千美元关口,今日国内高开跟涨。美国政府部门停摆,非农等数 据暂停发布、市场避险情绪延续。黄金长期上行逻辑未改，但随着今日特朗普宣布以哈签署第一阶段和平协 议,短期四千美元目标达成后需警惕资金获利了结,高位保持谨慎,前期多单持有,避免追涨介入。 ★特朗普宣布以色列和哈马斯均已签署我们和平计划的第一阶段协议。此前他表示可能在周末前往中东，考 虑去加沙。 ★在近期第六轮投票表决中，美参议院再次否决两党拔款法案，联邦政府继续停摆。 ★美国联邦储备委员会公布了9月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要显示，在9月的会议上，与会的美联储委员 们一致认为, ...

| | | | 有色金属现货升贴7 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货有色金属团队 | | | | 2025/9/30 | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM平水铜升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铜 | 83240 | 1030 | -30 | 10 | | SMM A00铝-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM A00铝升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铝 | 20720 | 30 | -20 | -10 | | 氧化铝(山西) | | 涨跌 | 澳洲氧化铝FOB-平均价 ( 美元 ) | 涨跌(美元) | | 2930 | | -5 | 323 | 0 | | SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM 1#铅锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 16800 | | 0 | -125 | -35 | | 铝 | 再生精铅-平均价 | 再生铅均价-涨跌 | 精废价差 | 涨跌 | | 16775 | | 0 | 25 | 0 | | 锌 | SMM 0#锌锭-平均价 | 涨跌 | SMM 0#锌锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | ...

十一假期前后国际油价总体回落，本周处于OPEC+最终未如预期般大幅增产后的反弹修复期，隔夜 布伦特12合约涨0.53%。EIA报告显示上周美国原油库存超预期增加371.5万桶，但近四周成品油表 需同比增1.7%相对强劲对油价构成支撑。尽管俄乌地缘抗动仍存，但供需宽松压力仍是后续市场的 交易主题,我们此前提出的SC高位空单与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略可在开盘后择机阶段性止盈。 【责金属】 国庆期间贵金属延续强势，国际金价突破四千美元关口。美国政府部门停摆,非农等数据暂停发 布,市场避险情绪延续。黄金长期上行逻辑未改，但随着今日特朗普宣布以哈签署第一阶段和平协 议,短期四千美元目标达成后需警惕资金获利了结,高位保持谨慎。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 【铜】 伦铜节中涨幅超过3%，继续消化节前Grasberg铜矿不可抗力对今明两年平衡表造成的供应损失影 响。同时8月智利铜产量单月同比降幅创两年来最大，反映了旗舰矿山El Teniente前期事故的产出 拖累。隔夜泰克资源智利主力矿山也调降了明后两年产出增量预期。海外投行调升长期铜价预期, 高盛看法相对谨慎。 ICSG已修正铜精矿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends. Different commodities and financial instruments present diverse investment opportunities and risks. For example, some commodities like manganese silicon are recommended for long - positions, while others like apples are advised to be shorted. In the financial market, a positive external liquidity environment is observed for the Greater China region's stock indices, and a steeper yield curve is expected for Treasury bonds [2][44][45]. 3. Summary by Commodity and Financial Instrument Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Supply is in a multi - factor state with both increases and geopolitical risks. Oil inventory accumulation is clear in Q3. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy of short futures and long call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the downward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation with abundant supply and weak demand [20]. - **Asphalt**: Pre - holiday inventory decreases. October production plan is in line with expectations, and demand is seasonally boosted, so the price is expected to be slightly strong [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Due to weather - related import changes and expected increase in demand, the price has rebounded slightly [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: They show a strong trend in the medium - term but have high volatility risks during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are rising. Grasberg's supply impact is being digested. Technically, there is potential for a trend breakthrough, but basic demand has a negative expectation [4]. - **Aluminum**: It's relatively stable. September consumption is below expectations, and it faces resistance at the March high. Post - holiday peak - season feedback is to be watched [5]. - **Zinc**: As the holiday approaches, the fundamentals weaken. Attention should be paid to the support level, and short - positions are advised to take profits before the holiday [8]. - **Lead**: Supply exceeds demand during the holiday, and the price has dropped. Cost support should be noted [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weakly running. Inventory changes vary, and it's waiting for the boost from copper prices [10]. - **Tin**: Prices have risen due to Indonesia's policy. Attention should be paid to the policy's impact and post - holiday inventory changes [11]. - **Other Metals** - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is weakly running [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with aluminum. Supply and demand factors lead to a mainly oscillating trend [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: With the "Three - Carbon" initiative, there is an upward price drive. It's recommended to go long at low prices [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: Similar to manganese silicon, it has an upward price drive and good demand. Long - positions at low prices are recommended [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment should be watched [23]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The fundamental situation is okay, but cost and demand factors are dragging down the market [24]. - **Styrene**: Cost support is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses the price [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Supply is controllable, and demand provides some support, but polypropylene faces price pressure [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak situation, and caustic soda may oscillate [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand situation is still under pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short - term but may increase in the medium - term [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is boosted by demand, and bottle - chip is affected by short - term factors [30]. Grains and Oils - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybeans face seasonal and export challenges. Palm oil has supply - side drivers in the fourth quarter. A protective long - call strategy can be considered [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to holiday factors, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [35]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybeans perform better in the short - term. Supply situations in different periods need attention [36]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Supply pressure is high, and the price is falling. The industry's capacity reduction process should be watched [37]. - **Eggs**: For far - month contracts, long - positions can be considered, while for near - month contracts, the departure of short - funds should be watched [38]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see [39]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the focus is on the next season's production estimate in China [40]. - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the price faces pressure, and a short - position strategy is recommended [41]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation is improving, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [43]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Indices**: They are showing strength. The external liquidity environment is positive, and a moderate increase in the allocation of cyclical styles can be considered [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are falling, and a steeper yield curve is expected [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical factors, seasonal changes, and policy expectations. Investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each commodity and adjust their investment strategies accordingly, especially during the National Day holiday to control risks [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. The supply side is in a multi - empty intertwined state. The oil inventory accumulation process is clear, with a 2.4% increase in the third quarter. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy combining futures shorts and call options [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Iraq's crude oil export recovery and OPEC +'s increasing production expectations put pressure on oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation [20] - **Asphalt**: Market pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm increased. The overall inventory level decreased. The 10 - month production plan was in line with expectations, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Due to typhoon weather in South China, the import volume decreased. Supply - demand improved marginally, and the LPG price rebounded slightly from the bottom [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals continued to be strong. The medium - term upward trend remains, but there is high volatility risk during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose. The market is digesting the supply impact. Technically, LME copper shows potential for a trend breakthrough, and SHFE copper enters the high - price area. However, there are negative demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight non - ferrous metals were strong, but SHFE aluminum was relatively stable. The consumption in September was lower than expected, and it faces resistance at the March high. Pay attention to the peak - season feedback after the holiday [5] - **Zinc**: As the National Day holiday approaches, the zinc fundamentals weakened. Shorts increased positions significantly. Pay attention to the support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against potential short squeezes in the outer market [8] - **Lead**: The supply of lead exceeded demand in the short term, and the price dropped significantly. Pay attention to the cost support at around 16,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel is in a weak state. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel iron decreased, while the stainless - steel inventory increased. Wait for the external copper price to drive the market [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose rapidly. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesia's policy and the changes in refined tin production rate and inventory after the holiday [11] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: With the "Three - Carbon" concept, there is an upward driving force for prices. The demand from molten iron production is rising, and it's recommended to go long at low prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate. Pay attention to policy adjustments [23] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The real - world fundamental situation is okay, but the oil - price collapse and future demand decline expectations drag down the market [24] - **Styrene**: The cost - side support from oil prices is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses prices [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of polypropylene is under pressure, and the price is always under pressure. For polyethylene, the downstream has stocking demand before the holiday, but there is de - stocking pressure after the holiday [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak and oscillating state due to high supply and inventory. Caustic soda may oscillate due to weak current situation and strong future expectations [27] - **PX & PTA**: The strong expectations of PX are weakened, and the supply - demand situation of PTA is still under pressure after the holiday [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the supply - demand may be weak in the fourth quarter [29] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber demand is boosted during the peak season, and bottle - chip prices are affected by short - term factors [30] Building Materials - **Glass**: Pay attention to the downstream restocking sentiment. If capacity reduction does not occur, the market may return to a weak state [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related Products**: U.S. soybeans face seasonal and export pressures. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. Mid - term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. Consider protective call strategies [34] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Due to the holiday, market sentiment is cautious. Rapeseed meal demand is suppressed, while rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines before the holiday [35] - **Domestic Soybeans**: Domestic soybeans are performing better than imported ones in the short term. Pay attention to the performance after the listing of domestic soybeans [36] - **Eggs**: Egg futures have significantly reduced positions. After the National Day, demand will weaken. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year [38] - **Cotton**: U.S. and Chinese cotton prices are falling. Xinjiang cotton may have a bumper harvest, and domestic demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [39] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the market focuses on the next - crop - season yield estimate in China [40] - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so maintain a short - selling mindset [41] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Maintain a long - buying mindset [42] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices hit a new low. The inventory in Chinese ports is relatively high, and the demand is average. Stay on the sidelines [43] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index showed strength. The external liquidity environment for the Greater China stock index is positive. Mid - term, increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and moderately increase the allocation of cyclical sectors in the short term [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures closed down. The economic operation faces challenges, and the yield - curve steepening probability increases [45] Livestock - **Hogs**: Hog futures dropped. The supply is abundant, and the government has carried out small - scale purchases. The industry is in a loss state. Pay attention to the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [37] - **Eggs**: Egg futures reduced positions significantly. The demand will weaken after the National Day. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly interpretable from the symbol "ななな" [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analyses for various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber. It assesses the supply, demand, and inventory situations of each commodity and gives corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, maintaining a bullish or bearish stance [1][2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and strong pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new harvest. The purchase price of seed cotton followed the futures price down. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate ranges from 720 to 770 million tons. Ginners are cautious about new cotton purchase, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for purchase. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the bumper harvest. Weak peak - season demand and poor spinning profits drag down cotton prices. Although Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, details need further tracking. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratio, leading to a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane increased year - on - year, indicating a relatively good output expectation for the 25/26 season. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. For the new - season apples, the coloring of early - picked Fuji was slow, and the quality of ordered goods was average. Late - maturing Fuji began to remove bags, and the fruit size was smaller this year. Due to the good price of early - maturing apples, farmers are bullish, and the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high. However, the output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers' bullish sentiment led to an increase in fruit retention, and the cold - storage inventory after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU (natural rubber futures) continued to decline slightly, NR (20 - rubber futures) first declined and then rose, and BR (butadiene rubber futures) continued to fall. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a downward trend, the port price of butadiene in the overseas market was stable, and the raw material prices in Thailand generally declined. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there is more rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance and some restarting. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires increased slightly, and that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. Tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tires continued to increase. They will arrange holidays during the National Day. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 461,200 tons last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,200 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased to 27,800 tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, demand is expected to decline, supply pressure is high, inventory reduction is difficult, and the external environment is poor. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6] Pulp - Zhengzhou pulp futures dropped significantly, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp was 5,300 yuan/ton for Moon brand and 5,250 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,250 yuan/ton for Goldfish brand and remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% month - on - month decline. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow, and the warehouse receipts of broad - leaf pulp still suppressed the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. The current port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, demand is average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The port spot price increased by 10 yuan. The arrival volume increased last week. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in October increased, but the domestic spot price remained weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, indicating strong peak - season demand and smooth inventory reduction. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Considering the improved supply - demand situation and relatively low spot price, a bullish strategy is maintained [8]

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