1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The Q4 GDP had a 1.2% quarter - on - quarter growth [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous value, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%, 0.05 percentage points higher than the previous value. The growth rates of mining and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water declined, while the manufacturing growth rate accelerated [1] - From January to December 2025, the year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 3.8 percentage points, with a month - on - month decline of 1.13%. Manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment had a growth rate of - 1.48%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.20% [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.3%, and the month - on - month decline was 0.40% [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators GDP - The GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates in 2025 were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The quarterly GDP growth rates were 1.0% in Q2, 1.1% in Q3, and 1.2% in Q4. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates were 5.3% in Q2, 5.2% in Q3, and 5.0% in Q4 [1] Industrial Added Value - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to December was 5.9%. Among the three major sectors, the growth rates of mining and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water declined, while the manufacturing growth rate accelerated [1] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to December 2025, the year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 3.8 percentage points, and the month - on - month decline was 1.13%. Manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment had a growth rate of - 1.48%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.20% [1] Real Estate - The cumulative year - on - year decline of real estate development investment from January to December 2025 was 17.20%. The cumulative year - on - year decline of commercial housing sales area was 8.7%. The year - on - year declines of new housing starts, housing construction, housing completion, and real estate development funds in December were 19.3%, 47.14%, 18.36%, and 28.09% respectively [1] Social Retail Sales - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.3%, and the month - on - month decline was 0.40%. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to December was 3.7% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main tone of the crude oil market is a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand, and the short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited [3] - The fuel oil market is still dominated by geopolitical factors, with high-sulfur fuel oil being strong in the near term due to geopolitical disturbances and low-sulfur fuel oil being pressured by increasing marginal supply [4] - The asphalt price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and the current upward driving force is limited, falling into a range-bound pattern [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump's administration postponed military action against Iran, causing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to partially reverse. Unless there is a significant disruption in oil supply, the short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited, and the market is dominated by a bearish pattern of loose supply and demand [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is geopolitically driven. For high-sulfur fuel oil, geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran tension are in focus. If Iranian exports are blocked, regional supply will tighten. In the medium term, supply tends to be loose due to abundant raw materials, floating storage, and high inventories. For low-sulfur fuel oil, winter demand provides some support, but overseas refinery supply is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. The absolute price of fuel oil follows crude oil, with high-sulfur being strong in the near term and low-sulfur being pressured by increasing supply [4] Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the crude oil price but with a relatively limited amplitude. After the current market has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightened supply of Venezuelan oil to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it has entered a range-bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, with a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical futures market is in a complex situation, with different products showing various trends and drivers. Some products are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy, cost, and geopolitical factors. The market is generally in a state of shock, and different products have different investment opportunities and risks [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Both olefin and polyolefin futures contracts closed down in intraday trading. The supply of domestic olefins tightened due to individual plant shutdowns, but weak downstream demand restricted the buying pace. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but the overall downstream operating rate declined slightly, and demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand is weak as downstream factories have completed year - end orders, and the future demand has been pre - consumed [2] 3.2 Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated in the morning and rose rapidly in the afternoon, mainly driven by sentiment due to a rumored unplanned maintenance of a PK plant in the second quarter. Before and after the Spring Festival, demand weakens, and there is limited upward driving force. In the second quarter, there are opportunities for PX processing margin to go long on dips and for positive spreads after the spread narrows, subject to downstream demand. For ethylene glycol, domestic new plants are put into production while overseas plants shut down, with expected supply increase at home and decrease abroad. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future, but the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter. Short - fiber is mainly driven by cost, and attention should be paid to downstream stocking rhythm around the Spring Festival. Bottle chips' processing margin has recovered, but long - term capacity pressure remains [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures market adjusted in shock, while the spot price continued to rise. Supply decreased due to refinery production cuts and reduced imports, and demand increased, leading to significant inventory reduction at East China ports. The short - term market is expected to be strong in shock. The styrene futures market consolidated in intraday trading. The current supply - demand balance is tight, with limited port arrivals and expected further inventory reduction. Domestic producers' sales are good, and exports provide some support [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market continued to decline. Import arrivals decreased significantly, but demand decreased due to plant shutdowns and reduced loads, and the inventory reduction speed is expected to slow down. Although there is support from the expected significant reduction in imports in the first quarter, the short - term market is expected to be in a stalemate. Urea prices are weakly stable. Daily production has recovered, downstream demand has increased, and production enterprises are reducing inventory. In the short term, the market may decline slightly, but in the long term, it is likely to fluctuate strongly within a range [6] 3.5 Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed an intraday shock trend. The cost pressure of ethylene - based PVC decreased, while that of calcium carbide - based PVC increased. The operating rate of some enterprises decreased, and the export volume was affected by price changes. It is expected that the price center will rise, and the strategy is to go long on dips. Caustic soda continued to be weak, with high inventory pressure. Although the price of liquid chlorine is strong and the integrated profit is acceptable, the industry is generally in a loss, and the future production reduction needs to be continuously monitored [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is operating weakly. Although the weekly inventory has decreased slightly, the overall pressure is still large. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and downstream procurement sentiment is poor. The strategy is to go short on rebounds and wait and see when the price drops near the cost. Glass futures prices have declined. Affected by weather and approaching the holiday, inventory may accumulate. The industry is losing money, but there is a rumor of new production line ignition, and supply may increase slightly. In the long term, the industry needs to reduce capacity. When the futures price drops to around 1000 yuan, there may be a long - buying opportunity [8]

Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the steel price following the cost center down and mainly fluctuating within a range. The iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Coke and coking coal are likely to follow a weakening trend. Silicon manganese and silicon iron need to pay attention to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [2][3][4][5][7][8] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is weak. The profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, but the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The steel price mainly fluctuates within a range [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume has declined but is much higher than last year. The port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand has improved in the off - season, and the iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [3] Coke - The coke price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has slightly increased. With sufficient carbon element supply and weak downstream demand, it is likely to follow a weakening trend [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the terminal inventory has increased substantially. It is likely to be weakly volatile due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot price of manganese ore has increased. The demand for silicon manganese has decreased seasonally, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. Affected by policies, the supply has decreased significantly, and the demand remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [2] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3][6] - Alumina: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3] - Zinc: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [4] - Lead and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [7] - Tin: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [9] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [10] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [11] Core Views - The overall situation of the non - ferrous metal market is complex, with different metals showing different trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and impacts from various factors such as geopolitics, cost changes, and market sentiment [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper increase in positions and fluctuate with a positive line. The SMM spot copper price was 10,075 yuan, with a Shanghai discount of 150 yuan and a slightly decreased Yangshan copper premium. The refined - scrap price difference was 3,034 yuan. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month. It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined. Spot premiums and discounts varied in different regions. Overseas geopolitical uncertainty is high, and the price is in high - level fluctuations with support at 23,800 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations with low market activity. Waste aluminum is tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The domestic alumina operating capacity is around 96 million tons, with significant over - supply. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan, and the spot price is under pressure [3] Zinc - Funds mainly reduced positions, and Shanghai zinc slightly declined. The SMM 0 zinc price was 24,340 yuan/ton. The price has support at 24,300 yuan/ton, but high prices suppress consumption. Although refinery maintenance provides cost support in the short - term, compared with the 2024 global zinc ingot supply - demand pattern, the high point of 25,600 yuan/ton in 2026 is likely to be the annual high, and the downward pressure on zinc ingots is expected to increase after the Spring Festival stocking demand [4] Lead - The SMM 1 lead price was 17,000 yuan/ton. There are expectations of inventory accumulation. Downstream buying willingness is low at high prices, and the import window remains open. The consumption of electric two - wheeler batteries is weak, while the consumption of automotive and energy - storage batteries maintains resilience. The price of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in high - level fluctuations with active trading. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season, and high - level transactions are blocked. The basis between futures and spot is widening, and negative feedback risks are accumulating. The inventory of nickel and iron has changed, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased. In the short - term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position thinking should be continued [7] Tin - Shanghai tin is increasing positions and fluctuating between the MA5 - 10 moving averages. There are high inventories of tin ingots at home and abroad, and the LME spot discount is large. It is recommended to hold the option of selling call options at a high level [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit again, but downstream acceptance of high prices is weak. After the price fell from the high point, the market trading showed a mild recovery. The overall inventory decline has slowed down. The futures price is in high - level fluctuations with high short - term uncertainty [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened high and went low. Although the news of production cuts by leading enterprises boosted the market, the follow - up sentiment was weak. The spot price is stable, and the supply is expected to shrink significantly. The demand has no clear increase, and the overall procurement willingness is weak. The price is likely to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is hedging pressure above the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price rebounded with reduced positions and weak trading volume. The average price of N - type re - feeding materials in the spot market is stable. Leading enterprises plan to stop production at the end of the month, and downstream acceptance of the current price has marginally improved. The component sector's inventory has decreased slightly due to export - rush behavior, but overseas orders are lower than expected. The spot price is expected to rise steadily, and the futures market will continue the weak rebound trend [11]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - In December, domestic industrial crude oil production was 17.8 million tons, a 0.6% year-on-year decline, while processing volume was 62.46 million tons, a 5.0% year-on-year increase. Trump's suspension of military action against Iran led to a partial retreat of geopolitical risk premium. The global crude oil supply-demand structure in Q1 2026 shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus remains the main factor suppressing oil prices [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. Fed officials' negative attitude towards short - term interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Greenland issue maintain the bullish trend of precious metals [2]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded. LME US inventory registration and narrowing of the US - London spread affected the market. Domestic copper market is mainly in a "supply exceeds demand" situation, with social inventory reaching 329,400 tons. It is recommended to hold a combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars increased by 13,000 tons each on Monday, and spot feedback was weak. Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan, waiting for a driving factor [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. Tight scrap aluminum supply and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal performance of the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years [5]. Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with no long - term production cuts. The alumina market is in significant surplus, with the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan dropping to around 2,600 yuan. Spot prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have corrected. Downstream acceptance is limited, and spot trading is weak. The weighted precipitation funds of Shanghai zinc have dropped to 5.1 billion yuan. Considering the import ore TC and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand, the short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton. The annual high is considered to be 25,600 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies [7]. Lead - The import window remains open. Both domestic and foreign markets are in a low - level consolidation due to oversupply. In late January, the resumption of production of domestic primary aluminum smelters is relatively concentrated, increasing supply pressure. The lower support for Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level, and the market is active. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season, with high - level transactions blocked. The negative feedback risk is accumulating. Short - term sentiment is high, and it is advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]. Tin - Overnight, domestic and foreign tin prices rebounded. LME tin ingot inventory increased to 6,440 tons, and the spot discount widened to $104. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand. It is advisable to hold short - call options at a high level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is weakly oscillating, and the market is active. Downstream acceptance of high prices is weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [10]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices mainly oscillated. Rebar apparent demand increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Hot - rolled coil demand improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends [11]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis narrowed recently. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, with a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil but an increase in non - mainstream shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased. Demand is affected by potential disruptions to iron - making production. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Coke - The daily price mainly oscillated. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented this week. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by factors such as coal inventory and policies [13]. Coking Coal - The daily price mainly oscillated. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1,465 tons. Coking coal production increased significantly, terminal inventory increased, and total inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by inventory and policies [14]. Manganese Silicon - The daily price oscillated downward. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron - making production decreased seasonally, and silicon - manganese production and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [15]. Silicon Iron - The daily price oscillated downward. Affected by policies, the price is relatively strong. There are expectations of a decrease in power and raw material costs. Iron - making production rebounded, and overall demand is still resilient. Supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [16]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - The inflection point of spot freight rates has been confirmed, leading the futures market into a weak trend. The near - month contract is affected by the actual "rush - shipping" intensity due to export - tax policy adjustments. The 04 contract may oscillate in the short term, and the far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption - of - shipping expectation. Contract rules will be adjusted [17]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical tensions continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical risks are expected to support the high - sulfur cracking spread, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy - raw materials will tend to be loose in the medium term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [18]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow crude oil but with limited amplitude. The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored. The market is in an oscillating range [19]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also improved. The short - term market may decline slightly, but with the start of agricultural demand, the market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range [20]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline at night. Import arrivals decreased significantly, and port inventory decreased. However, demand from some olefin plants decreased, and the market is expected to oscillate in a stalemate. The expected significant reduction in imports in Q1 provides support [21]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to oscillate strongly at night. Domestic refinery production cuts and reduced imports, along with increased downstream demand, led to a significant reduction in East China port inventory. The short - term market is expected to oscillate strongly [22]. Styrene - Styrene is in a tight - balance state, with limited port arrivals and expected inventory reduction. Domestic production enterprises have good sales, and exports provide some support [23]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The supply of propylene is tight in the short term, but downstream purchasing willingness is limited due to high costs. The demand support for polyethylene is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand fundamentals of polypropylene may lack upward driving force [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices are weakening, with a decline in production capacity utilization. The cost is rising, and it is expected to go through capacity reduction. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy. Caustic soda is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure [25]. PX and PTA - Before and after the Spring Festival, PX has limited upward - driving force, and PTA follows the raw material. In Q2, considering PX maintenance and polyester production increase, there are opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads. PTA processing spreads will moderately recover in the new year [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Domestic new ethylene - glycol plants are put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. In Q2, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term outlook is under pressure due to capacity growth [27]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises have high production loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and prices follow the raw material. Bottle - chip production has decreased, and processing spreads have recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [28]. Glass - Glass prices declined due to new ignition plans. The industry is in a state of inventory reduction, but supply may increase slightly. Processing orders are weak, and the market may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation period. It is advisable to consider long - buying opportunities when the price drops to around 1,000 yuan [29]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai raw - material prices decline. Natural - rubber supply is decreasing, and demand is gradually recovering. Synthetic - rubber supply is increasing, and inventory trends are different. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [30]. Soda Ash - Soda ash is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure. Production may decline slightly in the short term, but long - term supply pressure is large. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies and wait and see when the price drops to the cost level [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day. South American weather has improved, increasing the probability of ENSO neutrality. US soybean exports have strengthened. In China, soybean crushing is expected to increase in January. It is necessary to pay attention to US soybean exports and South American weather [32]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil export data shows an increase, and production shows a decrease, which is beneficial for inventory reduction. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand for US biodiesel. The overall outlook for soybean and palm oil is an oscillating range [33]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China and Canada have reached a preliminary arrangement on trade issues. If the import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal improves as expected before March 1, it is expected to drive purchases. The short - term view on rapeseed products is bearish [34]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are oscillating. Policy - driven auction results have a guiding effect on prices. The supply of grassroots grain sources is tight, and high prices suppress demand. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and the spot market [35]. Corn - Snow in Northeast China boosts the bullish sentiment, and transportation of grassroots grain is difficult. Corn prices in Northeast China and northern ports are strong. However, increased auctions by state and local reserves may form pressure. Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [36]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the sentiment of live - pig futures changed significantly. After a weekend increase in prices, the futures prices dropped in the afternoon. The short - term rebound may be over. The industry capacity is showing signs of contraction, and pig prices are expected to reach a low point in the first half of next year [37]. Eggs - After the New Year's Day, egg spot prices have been strengthening. The futures prices have followed the spot, but on Monday, the futures prices dropped significantly. In the long - term, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline, and it is advisable to adopt a long - buying strategy on dips [38]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to correct. After the previous rise, the positive factors have been mostly reflected. Downstream demand is average, and the reduction in Xinjiang's planting area needs further observation. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [39]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. India's sugar production is progressing rapidly, while Thailand's is slow. In China, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Guangxi's production is slow, but there is a strong expectation of an increase in the 2025/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [40]. Apples - Futures prices have corrected. Spot market transactions for the Spring Festival are increasing, but the quality of apples is poor, and the high purchase price and strong reluctance to sell may affect inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to future demand [41]. Wood - Futures prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease in the short term, and demand has increased compared to the same period last year. Low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices were basically flat. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand. Inventory is accumulating, and the price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, China's A - share indices had mixed performance, and futures indices mostly rose. The geopolitical situation has increased the risk - aversion sentiment. The stock - index trend is expected to change from a one - way increase to an oscillatingly strong trend, with a slower upward slope. It is necessary to pay attention to the transition from liquidity - driven to profit - driven and geopolitical impacts [44]. Treasury Bonds - On January 19, 2026, 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The first structural "interest - rate cut" of the year was implemented. The central bank adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial - housing loans and carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The money market is gradually becoming loose, but the short - term downward space for interest rates may be limited during the tax - payment period [45].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market showed a volatile trend last week, with most indices rising after falling and closing higher on a weekly basis. The Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index led the gains with a weekly increase of 2.58%. The computer and electronics sectors were outstanding with weekly gains of 3.82% and 3.77% respectively, while the national defense and military industry sector was weak with a weekly decline of about 4.92% [1]. - The market focus last week was on the US dollar liquidity environment and domestic policy dynamics. The strengthening of the US dollar index due to geopolitical situations disturbed global risk - asset prices. Domestically, the central bank introduced a structural relending rate - cut tool, and the market generally interpreted it as aiming to guide liquidity to the real economy more effectively. After the stock indices rose for several consecutive trading days, regulatory authorities took measures such as raising the margin ratio for margin trading to cool the market moderately [1]. - It is expected that the short - term market may change from a smooth upward trend to a relatively strong volatile pattern, and the medium - to - long - term trend remains positive. Attention should continue to be paid to changes in US dollar liquidity and domestic policy signals [1]. - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of most financial options varieties rebounded slightly and was generally slightly higher than the one - year median. The IV of most financial options' position - volume PCR was in the range of 80% - 110%, showing a slight decline compared with the previous week [2]. - The market may continue to be volatile and relatively strong, and the IV of most financial options has rebounded. Investment strategies include: continuing to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500, and selling out - of - the - money put options on the corresponding indices; for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, which has large recent fluctuations and relatively high static valuations, if holding the underlying asset, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks; if there are substantial spot - market gains, one can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with irrational market rallies, such as for the ChiNext Index; for the CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures with converging discounts, one can consider moving positions to the 2606 contract with a higher discount to continue a covered - call strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - Market trend: Most indices rose after falling last week, with the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index leading the gains at 2.58%. The computer and electronics sectors were strong, while the national defense and military industry sector was weak [1]. - Market focus: US dollar liquidity environment and domestic policy dynamics. The strengthening US dollar index disturbed global risk - asset prices, and the central bank introduced a structural relending rate - cut tool. Regulatory authorities took measures to cool the market [1]. - Market outlook: The short - term market may shift to a volatile pattern, and the medium - to - long - term trend is positive. Attention should be paid to US dollar liquidity and domestic policies [1]. Options Market - Implied volatility: The IV of most financial options varieties rebounded slightly and was generally slightly higher than the one - year median. For example, the IV of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 options was 29%, and that of the ChiNext Index options was 24%, approaching the one - year median. The IV of 50 and 300 options was in the 13% - 16% range, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options was in the 20% - 22% range [2]. - Position - volume PCR: The position - volume PCR of most financial options was in the 80% - 110% range, showing a slight decline compared with the previous week [2]. Strategy Outlook - Market situation: The market may continue to be volatile and relatively strong, and the IV of most financial options has rebounded [3]. - Investment strategies: Hold reasonable - valued indices and sell out - of - the - money put options on them; for high - volatility and high - valuation indices, take risk - reduction measures; consider taking profits on spot and keeping long - term call options; move positions for stock index futures with converging discounts to continue a covered - call strategy [3]. Market Overview - Multiple tables show the closing prices, price changes, IV, historical quantiles of IV, option trading volumes, and position - volume PCR of various underlying assets such as the SSE 50ETF, CSI 300ETF, and others from January 12 - 15, 2026, providing detailed information on market performance [5].

Report Investment Ratings - Index futures: ☆☆☆ - Treasury bond futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week of January 16th, index futures showed divergence, with IH2601 down 1.58%, IF2601 down 0.43%, IC2601 up 2.12%, and IM2601 up 1.35%. Investor sentiment gradually became rational, and the medium - term trend degree did not decline significantly under liquidity support. - The high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores for index futures were 8 for inflation, 8 for liquidity, 12 for valuation, and 9 for market sentiment. For treasury bonds, the scores were 7 for inflation, 9 for liquidity, and 5 for market sentiment. - The annualized basis rates of IF, IC, IM, and IH current - quarter contracts were 0.92%, - 1.05%, - 1.75%, and - 3.84% respectively. IC and IM remained at high historical basis points. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose 0.15% last week, with the profit coming from going long and closing TF on Tuesday. In the long - term, the social financing and credit data generally exceeded expectations, and the above - seasonal increase in M2 had a greater impact on IC and IM. In the short - term, high - frequency real estate and consumption were still weak, the RMB remained strong against the US dollar, and the short - term divergence narrowed recently. - The risk preference remained high but declined marginally compared to the previous week. The overall comprehensive signal was still above the neutral range. For treasury bonds, the capital market remained loose at the beginning of the year, and the short - term rebounded. The stock - bond seesaw effect was still significant, and the bond market was insensitive to fundamental feedback. The comprehensive signal of treasury bonds was neutrally volatile, with TF relatively stronger. [1] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - Fundamental Medium - High - Frequency Factor Scores - Among the economic kinetic factors, the blast furnace operating rate (163 companies: national) and the PTA operating rate (domestic) both increased by 4.88%, while the refinery operating rate in Shandong (atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit) decreased by 2.38%. The operating rates of automobile tires (all - steel tires) and polyester filament downstream looms (Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions) decreased by 9.44% and 9.11% respectively. - The scores for index futures and treasury bonds were both 7 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [2]. 2. Inflation Indicators - The vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 - index rose 0.77%, while the coking coal in the CITIC industry index fell 3.25%. The market price of 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.58%, and the South China styrene index increased by 2.12%. - The scores for index futures and treasury bonds were 8 and 7 respectively (on a scale of 0 - 10) [3]. 3. Liquidity - DR007, DR001, GC001 (weighted average), GC007 (weighted average), SHIBOR (overnight), and SHIBOR (1 - week) all showed different degrees of decline, while the US dollar index rose 0.48%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit yield (AAA: 1 - month) remained unchanged. - The score for index futures was 8 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [4]. 4. Index Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratio (PE, TTM), price - to - sales ratio (PS, TTM), and price - to - cash - flow ratio (PCF, operating cash flow TTM) all declined, while the dividend yield (last 12 months) increased by 2.67%. - The score for index futures was 11 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [5]. 5. Market Sentiment Index Futures - The margin trading balance increased by 4.00%, while the short - selling balance decreased by 3.24%. The net purchase amount of northbound funds remained unchanged at - 67.75, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange A - share trading volume increased by 3.21%. The score for treasury bonds was 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [6]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year CDB bond yield decreased by 0.65%, the US S&P 500 volatility index increased by 9.45%, and the Shanghai Treasury Bond Index trading volume decreased by 25.90%. The score for treasury bonds was 5 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [7]. 6. Strategy Introduction (Financial Futures Multi - Strategy) - The product pool includes index futures and treasury bond futures. The goal is to use a multi - strategy model to select and allocate contracts in the financial futures market for stable net - value growth. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital - market high - frequency data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic low - frequency data. The position volume is synthesized based on institutional long - and short - position volumes [17]. 7. Forecast Signals and Last Week's Situation Forecast Signals - The comprehensive signals of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were 0.52, 0.51, 0.51, 0.52, 0.49, and 0.51 respectively. There were no clear long or short positions based on the signal - selection rules [18]. Last Week's Situation - From January 12th to 16th, 2026, there were different signal changes for TF and T, with TF having a signal of 1 on January 13th and T having a signal of 1 on January 16th [20]. 8. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy Strategy Introduction - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factors use the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into level, slope, and curvature. The signals are divided into three types: '1' (large spread may decrease), '0' (uncertain spread change or oscillation), and '-1' (large spread may increase). A 1:1.8 ratio of 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted by duration - neutral matching [21]. Market Quotes and Trading Signals - From January 12th to 16th, 2026, the N - S model and trend regression model for TF and T main contracts had different signal combinations, but there was no clear trading signal resonance [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending January 16, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 0.45%, 0.15%, and 1.13% respectively. In the public - fund market, the common stock strategy continued to lead the gains with a weekly return of 1.26%. The convertible bond strategy outperformed the pure - bond strategy. Among commodities, the returns of energy - chemical and soybean meal futures ETFs declined, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals ETFs rose, with the silver ETF having a weekly increase of 23.15% [3]. - In terms of the CITIC five - style, the growth and cyclical styles rose in the past week, while the others fell. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the stable and consumer styles strengthened marginally, and the relative strength momentum of the stable style rebounded. All fund style indices outperformed the benchmark in the past week, with the financial style fund index having an excess return of 2.33%. The market's deviation from the consumer style decreased. The crowding indicator rose slightly this week, and the consumer style was in a historically high - crowding range [3]. - Among Barra factors, the short - cycle momentum factor had a better performance with a weekly excess return of 2.19%. The profitability and leverage factors continued to decline. In terms of winning rates, the residual volatility factor strengthened marginally, and the ALPHA factor weakened slightly. The cross - section rotation speed of factors decreased compared to the previous week and was in the lower - quantile range of the past year. According to the latest score of the style timing model, the stable style rebounded marginally this week, and the current signal favored the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 1.78%, with an excess return of 2.19% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Market Review - The common stock strategy led the gains in the public - fund market with a weekly return of 1.26%. The neutral - strategy products had more gains than losses. The convertible bond strategy outperformed the pure - bond strategy. Energy - chemical and soybean meal futures ETFs had return corrections, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals ETFs rose, with the silver ETF up 23.15% [3]. CITIC Five - Style Analysis - The growth and cyclical styles rose in the past week, while the others fell. The relative strength of the stable and consumer styles strengthened marginally, and the relative strength momentum of the stable style rebounded. All fund style indices outperformed the benchmark, with the financial style fund index having an excess return of 2.33%. The market's deviation from the consumer style decreased, and the consumer style was in a historically high - crowding range [3]. Barra Factor Analysis - The short - cycle momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 2.19%. The profitability and leverage factors continued to decline. The residual volatility factor strengthened marginally, and the ALPHA factor weakened slightly. The cross - section rotation speed of factors decreased compared to the previous week and was in the lower - quantile range of the past year [3]. Style Timing Model - The stable style rebounded marginally this week, and the current signal favored the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 1.78%, with an excess return of 2.19% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 ETFs and Indexes Information - For 50ETF, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price decreased from 3.180 to 3.153 with corresponding fluctuations in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 13.34% to 11.85%, and the next - month IV decreased from 16.60% to 14.98%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 24.00%, and 24.10% in the past 2 years [1]. - For沪300ETF, from January 14 - 19, 2026, the price fluctuated around 4.7, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 14.17% to 12.20%, and the next - month IV decreased from 18.13% to 15.66%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 10.60%, and 24.30% in the past 2 years [3]. - For深300ETF, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price fluctuated slightly around 4.9, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 14.15% to 12.62%, and the next - month IV decreased from 17.88% to 15.98%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 27.30%, and 31.00% in the past 2 years [9]. - For沪中证500ETF, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price increased from 8.277 to 8.348, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 25.69% to 19.87%, and the next - month IV decreased from 26.19% to 22.76%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 90.60%, and 84.20% in the past 2 years [13]. - For深中证500ETF, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price increased from 3.299 to 3.328, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 25.46% to 19.22%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 89.30%, and 80.90% in the past 2 years [21]. - For创业板ETF, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price decreased from 3.352 to 3.318, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 26.83% to 20.83%, and the next - month IV decreased from 31.25% to 26.13%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 63.60%, and 37.10% in the past 2 years [27]. - For深证100ETF, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price decreased from 3.543 to 3.531, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 18.75% to 16.10%, and the next - month IV decreased from 22.51% to 20.58%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 44.00%, and 45.30% in the past 2 years [37]. - For科创50ETF, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price fluctuated around 1.5, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 32.94% to 25.92%, and the next - month IV decreased from 37.63% to 32.41%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 36.30%, and 41.50% in the past 2 years [46]. - For科创板50ETF, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price fluctuated around 1.5, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 32.08% to 23.99%, and the next - month IV decreased from 35.34% to 31.32%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 65.30%, and 59.50% in the past 2 years [51]. - For 300指数, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price fluctuated around 4700, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 15.16% to 16.20%, and the next - month IV decreased from 19.21% to 18.42%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 56.30%, and 49.80% in the past 2 years [59]. - For 1000指数, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price increased from 8240.775 to 8265.646, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 25.40% to 23.17%, and the next - month IV decreased from 26.06% to 24.15%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 65.40%, and 68.30% in the past 2 years [64]. - For上证50指数, from January 15 - 19, 2026, the price decreased from 3105.575 to 3075.936, with corresponding changes in the underlying asset's price change rate, current - month IV, and next - month IV; the current - month IV decreased from 13.95% to 15.52%, and the next - month IV decreased from 67.66% to 55.03%. The current - month IV quantile in the past 1 year was 40.80%, and 36.60% in the past 2 years [70]. 3.2 Skew Index Information - The skew index of 50ETF's main contract month was 94.83 today [2]. - The skew index of沪300ETF's main contract month was 92.10 today [5]. - The skew index of深300ETF's main contract month was 98.93 today [11]. - The skew index of沪中证500ETF's main contract month was 90.61 today [16]. - The skew index of深中证500ETF's main contract month was 100.00 today [26]. - The skew index of创业板ETF's main contract month was 96.29 today [33]. - The skew index of深证100ETF's main contract month was 92.08 today [40]. - The skew index of科创50ETF's main contract month was 89.48 today [48]. - The skew index of科创板50ETF's main contract month was 96.98 today [54]. - The skew index of 300指数's main contract month was 87.68 today [63]. - The skew index of 1000指数's main contract month was 88.56 today [69]. - The skew index of上证50指数's main contract month was 85.85 today [76]. 3.3 Other Information - The expiration of the current - month contracts for 50ETF,沪300ETF,深300ETF,沪中证500ETF,深中证500ETF,创业板ETF,深证100ETF,科创50ETF, and科创板50ETF was 7 days away; the expiration of the current - month contracts for 300指数, 1000指数, and上证50指数 was 20 days away [1][3][9]