Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have short - term impacts on oil prices, but supply surplus restricts upward space [2] - In the precious metals market, due to employment data and geopolitical chaos, there are opportunities for breakthrough and re - entry [3] - Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly [4][5][6] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers drive short - term price recovery, but supply surplus in Q1 2026 limits upward space [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is directly affected by geopolitical risks, with potential demand increase; low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply increase pressure [22] - **Asphalt**: Oil price rebound, but asphalt lags behind. Venezuelan oil supply may impact domestic asphalt in February [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US employment data and geopolitical chaos lead to precious metals challenging previous highs, with investment opportunities [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Price oscillates, affected by US employment and geopolitical situation, with a previous option strategy [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term funds drive price up, approaching historical high, with high profit for aluminum plants [5] - **Zinc**: Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with cost support, and price oscillates in a range [8] - **Lead**: Price oscillates in a low - level range, affected by inventory and cost [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Market oscillates, with changes in inventory and price influenced by policies [10] - **Tin**: Price has support, with attention on inventory changes and high option volatility [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price oscillates at a high level, with active trading and strong support from the ore end [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Price oscillates weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [13] - **Polysilicon**: Policy affects demand, with supply surplus and price seeking cost support [14] - **Iron and Steel** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Price oscillates, with changes in demand, output, and inventory, and profit margin repair for steel mills [15] - **Iron Ore**: Price rebounds, with changes in supply and demand, and inventory increase [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Price oscillates strongly, affected by supply - demand and policies [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Ferrosilicon**: Price drops, with different supply - demand situations, and callback buying is recommended [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: Price oscillates strongly in a range, with expected increase in daily output and approaching spring agricultural demand [24] - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Price oscillates, with expected reduction in far - month production and consideration of positive spread arbitrage [26] - **Styrene**: Price consolidates, affected by raw material inventory [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Market sentiment is different, with changes in supply, demand, and price [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC price drops, with potential for long - term capacity reduction and cost support; caustic soda oscillates with supply - demand pressure [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, with cost support from oil price, and different expectations for PX and PTA [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply changes, with pressure in the short - term and potential improvement in Q2 [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Demand weakens, with price following raw materials and different supply - demand situations [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: US and South American soybean production data are expected, with South American weather and US exports to be concerned, and price oscillating weakly [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Market oscillates, affected by Indonesian policy and Malaysian inventory [37] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Market oscillates weakly, affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Price shows different trends, with attention on policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: Price oscillates widely, with low inventory and high auction performance [40] - **Pig**: Price is strong in the short - term, but supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and there may be a secondary bottom in the medium - long term [41] - **Egg**: Price is strong, with存栏 decline and bullish expectations for H1 2026 contracts [42] - **Cotton**: Price adjusts, with changes in inventory and demand, and attention on policy implementation [43] - **Sugar**: Price oscillates, with different production situations in India and Thailand, and expected increase in Guangxi [44] - **Apple**: Price rebounds, with increased demand for Spring Festival stocking and concerns about inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: Price is low, with low inventory providing support [46] - **Pulp**: Price oscillates, with limited upward space due to weak demand [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] - **Stock Index**: A - shares are likely to continue to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles dominant [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Price drops slightly, with focus on the flattening of the yield curve [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and investment suggestions for each category [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have increased short - term upward pressure on oil prices, but inventory pressure and supply surplus limit the upside [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led to wide - range fluctuations in fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side pressure [22] - **Bitumen**: Oil price rebounds have not been fully followed by bitumen. Venezuelan oil supply disruptions may impact bitumen raw materials in the future [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With mixed US employment data and ongoing global geopolitical unrest, precious metals are challenging previous highs [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are affected by US employment data, geopolitical situations, and domestic production and inventory. An option strategy has been proposed [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are driven by funds, and there is a divergence from fundamentals. High profits may prompt aluminum plants to sell for hedging [5] - **Zinc**: Consumption is expected to be front - loaded in 2026, but the market may range - bound due to cost support and supply - side factors [8] - **Lead**: The market is range - bound, and attention should be paid to cost - related support [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of shock, with inventory changes and policy sentiment influencing prices [10] - **Tin**: LME tin prices have risen, and domestic prices are supported. Attention is on inventory changes [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, with supply - demand factors driving the market [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [13] - **Polysilicon**: A new policy has changed the trading logic, and prices may seek cost support [14] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are oscillating, with demand and inventory showing different trends. Steel mill profits are improving, and iron - water production is rising [15] - **Iron Ore**: The market has rebounded, but there are risks of high - level volatility due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a relatively strong and oscillating trend, with considerations for supply - demand and policy factors [17][18] - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: For both, it is recommended to buy on dips, considering supply - demand and policy impacts [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range as spring agricultural demand approaches [24] - **Methanol**: Import expectations are reduced, but high coastal inventories and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and a positive spread strategy may be considered in the medium - term [26] - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of consolidation due to cost and inventory factors [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Market sentiment varies, with supply - demand factors influencing prices [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may have short - term trading opportunities and long - term price increases. Caustic soda is oscillating, with supply - demand and profit factors at play [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, but cost support from oil prices exists. PX has a strong medium - term outlook [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market will be under pressure in the short - term and may improve in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is waiting for the USDA report. South American production expectations and weather are key factors, and prices may be weak [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The market is expected to oscillate, with attention on palm oil export tax policies and inventory [37] - **Canola & Canola Oil**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the focus on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: The futures contract is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with attention on sales progress and auctions [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Short - term price support may come from secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure exists [41] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The market is expected to adjust, with attention on supply - demand and policy factors [43] - **Sugar**: The market is oscillating, with differences in international and domestic production progress [44] - **Apples**: The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: The price is at a low level, and the market is recommended to be observed [46] - **Pulp**: The market is oscillating, and short - term upward potential is limited [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: A new policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles potentially outperforming [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the flattening of the yield curve [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil: Not clearly defined in the given rating system [1] - Iron ore: Not clearly defined in the given rating system [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is evolving [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is still weak, and the steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern. The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high - level volatility risks. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be strongly volatile. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are recommended to buy on dips [2][3][7] Summary by Directory Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Thread steel's apparent demand decreased, production slightly increased, and inventory started to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil demand fell, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory decreased slowly. Steel mill profits improved marginally, blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and hot metal output increased in the short term. Downstream industries' investment showed a weak trend, and steel exports remained high. The market is expected to be range - bound [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was weakly volatile. Supply decreased seasonally globally, domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventories increased significantly. Demand was weak in the off - season, steel mill profits declined, and hot metal production increased but was difficult to significantly recover in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but were still low, with winter storage expectations. The market is at risk of increased high - level volatility [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated within the day. The fifth round of price cuts was postponed, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory remained almost unchanged. Carbon supply is abundant, downstream hot metal output is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials is at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong desire to lower raw material prices. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated after rising within the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,291 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after the New Year. Spot auction transactions were okay, and transaction prices increased slightly. Terminal inventories increased slightly, and total coking coal inventories increased significantly. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Manganese ore spot prices increased. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventories. Demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. Hot metal production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Affected by relevant policies, the price was relatively strong. There are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Hot metal production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased slightly, and magnesium metal production increased. Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Report Core View - Traditional factors in the current market, such as volume-price factors based on trading volume and price data and fundamental factors based on economic data, are facing the risk of invalidation. In the context of high strategy crowding and over - mining of big data, alternative factors are becoming new important aids for describing price expectations. The report focuses on sentiment factors with a wide range of applications, which can not only depict the current market heat and sentiment but also quantitatively grasp the strength and weakness of sectors and varieties by refining, processing and analyzing text information such as news, media and research reports [1] Other Key Points - The formula for the emotional intensity in the futures market is the sum of the correlation degree between news/reports and futures varieties multiplied by the emotional score of news/reports [2]

Report's Investment Ratings for Different Metals - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as holding certain option strategies, participating in hedging, and being cautious in trading [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - The Shanghai copper market reduced positions and fluctuated, recovering intraday losses. The impact of the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs on copper is limited. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum increased positions and rose. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China narrowed. The short - term rise is driven by funds, deviating from the fundamentals. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan, and aluminum plants can consider selling hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and the spot price is under pressure [3] Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is light. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of pre - consuming, and the demand may not be weak in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - The SMM 1 aluminum has a discount to the near - month contract. The import window is open, and the overseas surplus can be transmitted to the domestic market. The recycled aluminum production has increased after profit repair. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has improved. The stainless steel inventory has decreased. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions and traded around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot price has support at the integer - level high. The option strategy of selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be held until maturity [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price is oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has slightly improved. The price center is slowly rising, and the mine - end price remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and closed slightly down. The supply side has production cuts, and the demand side has reduced demand. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after the limit - down. The market's expectation for capacity clearance has changed. The supply is still high, and the price is seeking cost support [11]

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Chemical Products - **Positive Outlook (Red Stars)**: Methanol, Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Propylene are rated ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunities; Urea, PVC, and Soda Ash are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - **Negative Outlook (Green Stars)**: There are no products with a green - star rating in the report. - **Balanced Outlook (White Stars)**: Polypropylene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Glass, and Caustic Soda are rated ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term trend is balanced, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The chemical market shows a mixed performance. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, cost factors, and geopolitical risks. Different products have different trends in price, production, and inventory [2][3][5]. - **Investment Strategies**: For some products, such as far - month pure benzene, consider long - short spreads; for soda ash, use a right - side short - selling strategy; hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy; for glass, look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [3][8]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - **Propylene**: The main futures contract rose slightly. Production enterprises had smooth sales, and multiple plants planned to reduce production or undergo maintenance, boosting market sentiment [2]. - **Polyethylene**: Market sentiment was strong, downstream factories replenished stocks, and production enterprises raised factory prices. The market price trended upward, and low - price transactions were acceptable [2]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply was tight, and some petrochemical factory prices were high, leading to a price - support intention. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, and trading volume decreased [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The spot price in East China was stable. Hydro - benzene production increased, imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. The industry profit improved, and downstream capacity utilization was expected to rise. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate, and consider long - short spreads for far - month contracts [3]. - **Styrene**: The main futures contract rose but was pressured by the semi - annual line. Production enterprises had stable sales, inventory decreased, but the accumulation of raw material pure benzene suppressed the price rebound [3]. 3.3 Polyester - **PX and PTA**: Prices declined. The terminal market weakened, polyester cash flow was low, and production started to decline. The overnight oil price increase slightly boosted the market. PX was expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin moderately recovered [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New domestic plants were about to start production, and overseas plants shut down due to low profitability. Polyester production was expected to decrease, port inventory continued to accumulate, and it will fluctuate at a low level around the Spring Festival. Supply - demand may improve in the second quarter, but it will face long - term pressure [5]. - **Short - fiber**: Enterprises had low inventory, but downstream orders were weak. Profits were thin, and downstream factories would gradually take holidays after mid - January. The price fluctuated with raw materials, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [5]. - **Bottle chips**: Demand weakened, downstream buyers restocked as needed, the spot price was slightly lower, and the price followed raw materials. Before the Spring Festival, production and demand will decline, and over - capacity will be a long - term pressure [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemicals - **Methanol**: The trading floor saw intensified long - short battles. Overseas plant operation rates were low, and future imports were expected to decrease significantly. However, high coastal inventory and downstream negative feedback may suppress the market [6]. - **Urea**: The price slightly declined, and enterprise inventory stopped falling and started to rise. Gas - based plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for immediate use. The daily output was expected to increase, but the decline space was limited due to the upcoming spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - **PVC**: The price declined. Maintenance decreased, production increased, downstream demand was weak, and exports were mainly from ethylene - based enterprises. The calcium carbide price increase provided cost support, and the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuated. The chlorine market was good, integrated profits were acceptable, and production was at a high level. Downstream alumina production was high, but the industry was generally in the red. Liquid caustic soda inventory continued to accumulate, and the alumina production cut expectation will suppress the price rebound [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - **Soda Ash**: The price was weakly fluctuating. Supply pressure was high as production increased. Recent trading was mainly by futures - cash arbitrageurs, and downstream buying sentiment was low. Float and photovoltaic glass industries continued to cut capacity, and soda ash inventory continued to accumulate, facing oversupply. Consider short - selling on the right - side and hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy [8]. - **Glass**: The price fell from a high level. The spot market continued to destock, and prices varied by region. All three fuel - based production lines were in the red, and production capacity was compressed to 150,000 tons. Processing orders were weak, and demand was insufficient. After the capacity drops below 150,000 tons, supply - demand will reach a weak balance, and look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil [1] - **Bullish (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: Soybean, Palm Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product futures market shows a mixed trend, with different varieties affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions [2][3][4] - For most varieties, short - term market trends need to be continuously monitored, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures is in an adjustment state at a high level, and the spot price of domestic soybeans is rising. Jilin Province will conduct a competitive auction of trade grains in mid - January [2] - South American new - season soybeans maintain the annual production forecast, and the supply - side risk is low. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and market guidance [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The USDA will release the January supply - demand report next Tuesday. Reuters predicts that the US 2025/26 soybean production will be 4.229 billion bushels, and the ending inventory will be 292 million bushels [3] - The US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2025 is expected to be 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase year - on - year. South American soybean production is expected to rise slightly [3] - If the South American weather does not change significantly, the soybean meal price will follow the US soybean price and fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil are continuing to rebound. Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy [4] - The Malaysian palm oil market is at risk of further inventory accumulation. The overseas soybean supply - side risk is low, and the palm oil inventory pressure in Malaysia is expected to continue. The market is expected to be volatile [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products show a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil rises due to the increase in international crude oil prices, while rapeseed meal is pressured by the expectation of improved China - Canada economic and trade relations [6] - The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week. It is expected that the market will be in a weak and volatile state [6] Corn - Corn futures are oscillating at a high level. The spot price in Northeast China has risen slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises have raised the purchase price [7] - The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn has a high transaction rate and premium. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are continuing to oscillate, and the spot price is slightly stronger. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is still high, but the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low [8] - There may be an accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the supply pressure is large. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and it is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound [8] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is stable. Due to the low replenishment in the second half of 2025, the egg - laying hen inventory will decline rapidly from January 2026 [9] - With pre - Spring Festival stocking, the spot price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take a long position in the first - half - year contracts of 2026 or adopt a long - near and short - far strategy [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is concerned about the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's reciprocal tariffs, but the impact on copper is limited. The focus is on the US December non - farm employment indicators at night [2]. - Short - term funds are boosting Shanghai Aluminum to hit a record high, with a certain deviation from the fundamentals. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and its spot price is under pressure [3]. - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the demand may be "not off - season in the off - season" in 2026. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure at 17,800 yuan/ton and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The stainless steel market is affected by policies, and the social inventory is accelerating to be depleted. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. - Shanghai Tin is in a position of increasing positions and gaming at the 350,000 - yuan mark. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level, with strong resilience. The price center is slowly and continuously rising [9]. - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the start - up situation in the northwest [10]. - Polysilicon prices are seeking cost support due to policy changes, and participation should be cautious [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai Copper reduced positions and oscillated, recovering losses during the session. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai Aluminum increased positions and rose. Spot discounts in some regions narrowed, and the aluminum rod processing fee remained negative. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and it is in significant surplus. The alumina spot price is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3]. Aluminum - SMM 1 aluminum has a discount of 110 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The import window is still open. The recycled aluminum profit has recovered, and the refined - scrap price difference is 150 yuan/ton. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is still light. SMM zinc inventory has risen to 118,500 tons. In 2026, the consumption is expected to be moderately advanced. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel oscillated with active trading. The upstream price has started to rebound. The pure nickel inventory increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 873,000 tons. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. Tin - Shanghai Tin increased positions and played around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot tin price dropped to 349,750 yuan, with a real - time premium of 2,390 yuan to the delivery month. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream has a mentality of hoarding goods, and the downstream has a small amount of rigid - demand purchases. The price center is slowly rising, and the market inventory has increased in the first week [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and went high, closing slightly down. There is a technical rebound, and there is news of enterprise production cuts. The supply side shows reduced production by large factories in Xinjiang, and low - level operation in Sichuan and Yunnan. The demand side has a decrease in raw material demand from polysilicon and organic silicon. It is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after hitting the daily limit yesterday, with continuous capital outflows. The market expectation has changed, and the price is seeking cost support. Participation should be cautious [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides analyses and operation suggestions for various soft commodities, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities due to different market conditions such as supply - demand changes, production progress, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to correct, with the position of the main contract decreasing. Spot sales were average, and the basis was stable. As of the end of December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 110.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.96 million tons. Sales progress was fast, providing strong support to the market. Currently in the off - season, demand was generally stable. As of December 25th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. The policy of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang was implemented, but the reduction data was lower than market expectations. Spinning mills still had demand for raw materials, with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the short - term focus was on the production expectation difference in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress was fast, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, while Thailand's production progress was slow and the output was lower than expected. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's production and sales both decreased. In December, the single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 tons; sugar sales were 795,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 1.0571 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62,100 tons. The sales volume decreased significantly due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the production progress was slow. If the output cannot increase later, the futures price will repair upwards. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rebound. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking price of some soft semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and purchased less from farmers. As merchants started to stock up for the Spring Festival, the cold - storage trading volume increased. As of January 8th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 287,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.37%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the sentiment of hoarding among traders and farmers was strong, which may affect the destocking speed. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all decreased. The domestic natural rubber spot price decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand varied. Globally, the natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan about to fully stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, with the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise. This week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories continued to decline, the finished - product inventory of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises decreased, while that of semi - steel tires continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 548,300 tons, with both the bonded area and general trade inventory increasing; the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,100 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 41,300 tons. In general, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic supply is increasing, rubber inventory is increasing, cost support is stable, and market sentiment is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp price increased slightly. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,500 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 billion tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory - accumulation trend. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support to coniferous pulp. Recently, the overseas quotes of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have both increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp for rigid demand, and the price of base paper has relatively weak follow - up increases. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable. In terms of supply, the overseas quote decreased, and the domestic spot price remained weak, with the short - term arrival volume expected to decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports across the country was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. As of January 2nd, the total log inventory at ports across the country was 2.67 billion cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory was relatively low, with relatively low inventory pressure. Overall, the low inventory provided some support to the price. It is advisable to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] Core View - Overnight precious metals first declined and then rebounded, with the downward trend easing. The weekly initial jobless claims in the US stood at 208,000, remaining at a low level. Geopolitical turmoil persists globally at the beginning of the year, and market sentiment drives significant price fluctuations. The impact of the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index is not sustainable. After a high - level consolidation, precious metals are still expected to test previous high resistance. Consider participating in a breakout or waiting for volatility to decline before re - entering the market. Attention should be focused on the US non - farm payrolls data tonight [1] Other Summaries Fed - related - It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by about 150 basis points in 2026. Trump claims to have decided on the next Fed chair nominee. Bessent urges the Fed to cut rates further and expects Trump to announce the nominee this month [2] Venezuela Situation - related - The US Energy Secretary says Venezuela's oil production may increase by 50% in 18 months. The US Senate seeks to limit Trump's actions against Venezuela, and Trump threatens five "defecting" Republicans. US media reports that Trump is planning to control Venezuela's state - owned oil company with the goal of pushing oil prices down to $50 per barrel. Venezuela reaffirms its commitment to deepening economic and trade agreements with China [2]