Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - The short - term strategy is to sell at high prices, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. There are still geopolitical risks and supply disturbances [1] Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak and volatile pattern. High - sulfur demand is falling, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure, but both lack strong price drivers [19] Natural Gas (implied in LPG) - LPG is expected to trade in a bottom - grinding pattern. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased marginally, and the import cost is expected to improve [21] Coal (implied in Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to high iron - water production. However, there is a game between price increases and decreases, and inventory is accumulating [14][15] Bitumen - It showed a relatively small decline in the oil products market. Demand is increasing due to pre - holiday rush work, and inventory is decreasing [20] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - They are in a medium - term upward trend but should be treated with caution in the short term due to inflation pressure and geopolitical games [2] Base Metals - Aluminum: It is in a callback. Market drivers are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive positive feedback between inventory and spot [3] - Zinc: Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6] - Lead: The fundamentals have improved in the short term, but the upward trend is under pressure due to external market supply [7] - Nickel: The supply disturbance has subsided, and the overall trend is weak [8] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: In the context of "anti - involution", it is recommended to buy on dips [16][17] Iron and Steel - Steel prices are in a rebound but with limited upside due to weak demand. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13] Group 3: Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The short - term futures may face a correction, but there may be a chance for a phased recovery if it stabilizes at the support level [10] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to continue the volatile pattern as the supply - demand contradiction persists [11] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may show a weak and volatile trend due to supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectations [27] PX and PTA - Their market expectations are weakening, and the processing margins have limited room for repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - It is under pressure due to new device expectations, but the current supply pressure is not large [29] Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip - Short - fiber can be considered for long - term allocation, while bottle - grade chip has limited room for processing margin recovery [30] Glass - It is in a pattern of high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long opportunities near the cost [31] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the impact of typhoon weather on supply [32] Urea - Supply is increasing, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term [22] Methanol - It is in a weak position in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [23] Pure Benzene - The reality is okay, but the expectation is weak due to high import expectations and poor downstream profits [24] Styrene - Supply is increasing more than demand, and the price trend is weak [25] Polypropylene and Plastic - They are in a weak and volatile pattern due to the game between supply and demand [26] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - Corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom due to sufficient supply [38] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean and soybean meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and soybean meal can be cautiously bullish in the long term. Soybean oil and palm oil should pay attention to trade trends and can be considered for long - term buying [34][35] Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see after the downward break. New cotton production is expected to be high, but the impact of possible抢购is controllable [40] Sugar - US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market focuses on the next season's production estimate [41] Fruit - Apple futures are expected to decline in the short term due to expected high inventory [42] Wood - The price increase momentum is insufficient due to weak peak - season demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Pulp - It is in a low - level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt changes [44] Group 5: Others Shipping - The container shipping index may return to the downward channel if the Maersk opening price continues to decline [18] Stock Index - The stock market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [44] Bond - The bond market shows a structural differentiation, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. The mid - term strategy is to short on rallies. For precious metals, the mid - term upward trend remains, but short - term caution is advised. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with various investment suggestions for each [1][2]. Summaries by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: The bearish trend persists, with geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruptions from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. It is recommended to hold short positions with out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur demand declines, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure. It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak - side oscillation, with potential price fluctuations due to geopolitical situations [19]. - **Asphalt**: Although crude oil prices are falling, asphalt shows relatively small declines. With increased pre - holiday terminal demand in the north and inventory reduction, the futures price shows a strong - side oscillation [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply and demand improve marginally, and the import cost expectation is positive. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21]. Metals - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally increasing, but the inventory inflection point has not appeared. There is resistance at the March high, and the pre - holiday inventory and spot feedback should be monitored [3]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with tight scrap aluminum supply and expected tax policy adjustment increasing costs, showing stronger resilience [4]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity hits a new high, and the inventory is rising. The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to reach the support level around 2,830 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: LME and domestic inventories are both decreasing. Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to short on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals improve in the short term, but the external market is under pressure. The price is expected to rebound with resistance [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply disruption eases, and the overall trend is weak [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is slightly stronger than last year, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. - **Coke**: There is a game between price cuts and increases. The inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The production increases slightly, and the inventory rises. It is recommended to go long on dips [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The demand and production are increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the "anti - involution" context [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The demand is okay, and the supply recovers to a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price may face a correction, but there may be a phased repair opportunity if it stabilizes at the support level [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply surplus expectation remains, and the demand increase is limited. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the month - spread may widen [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakens, and the PTA processing margin repair space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory reduction [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The new - device expectation and weak external sentiment put pressure on the price. The supply pressure is not large in reality, but the expectation is weak [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Argentina's export tax cancellation affects the market. The short - term market may oscillate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for soybean meal [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Argentina's policy changes the market sentiment. In the long - term, considering the biodiesel policy, it is advisable to buy on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The international rapeseed supply is seasonally loose, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The oil - meal ratio is expected to rise in the short - term [36]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. The futures price may run weakly at the bottom [38]. - **Cotton**: The new - cotton production may be high, and the demand support is limited. After the price break - down, short - term observation is recommended [40]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic market focuses on the next - season's output [41]. - **Apples**: The supply lacks positive drivers, and the short - term price is expected to decline [42]. - **Timber**: The supply may remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The price increase power is insufficient [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the supply is loose. The operation suggestion is to observe or trade in the oscillation range [44]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is weak, and the price increase is difficult to implement. The盘面 may return to the downward channel [18]. - **Stock Index**: The macro - risk preference is high, and the market style is recommended to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and moderately allocate the cyclical style [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The debt risk is under control, and the liquidity is expected to be abundant. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a -1.30% drop on the 18th, -0.10% on the 19th, and a 0.30% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 17.80% - 19.45%, and the next month IV from 18.87% - 20.13% [1] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 65.30% - 76.70%, and the next month IV quantiles were 66.20% - 86.00% [1] 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price rose gradually, with a -1.27% drop on the 18th, a 0.22% increase on the 19th, and a 0.33% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 17.76% - 18.21%, and the next month IV from 19.55% - 20.47% [3] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 62.40% - 74.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 66.60% - 84.50% [3] 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased steadily, with a -1.42% drop on the 18th, a 0.32% increase on the 19th, and a 0.36% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 18.46% - 19.73%, and the next month IV from 20.50% - 21.64% [9] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 63.20% - 82.60%, and the next month IV quantiles were 70.30% - 86.80% [9] 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price had minor fluctuations, with a 0.14% increase on the 18th, a -1.30% drop on the 19th, and a 0.36% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 22.20% - 24.13%, and the next month IV from 25.49% - 25.82% [13] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 59.10% - 80.10%, and the next month IV quantiles were 76.70% - 87.50% [13] 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased slightly, with a -1.05% drop on the 18th, a -0.34% drop on the 19th, and a 0.69% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 20.78% - 24.98%, and the next month IV from 25.90% - 48.50% [19] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 65.70% - 86.20%, and the next month IV quantiles were 76.70% - 87.30% [19] 3.6 ChiNext ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased slightly, with a -1.67% drop on the 18th, a -0.16% drop on the 19th, and a 0.65% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 34.48% - 38.92%, and the next month IV from 42.19% - 43.81% [23] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 74.20% - 92.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 90.70% - 96.40% [23] 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased steadily, with a -1.00% drop on the 18th, a 0.38% increase on the 19th, and a 0.55% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 23.77% - 25.70%, and the next month IV from 27.03% - 27.77% [32] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 64.40% - 85.00%, and the next month IV quantiles were 77.60% - 90.60% [32] 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased significantly, with a 0.69% increase on the 18th, a -1.31% drop on the 19th, and a 3.35% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 45.63% - 50.03%, and the next month IV from 50.07% - 54.41% [39] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 81.60% - 94.20%, and the next month IV quantiles were 87.70% - 96.60% [39] 3.9 STAR 50ETF - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased significantly, with a 0.64% increase on the 18th, a -1.20% drop on the 19th, and a 3.51% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 38.30% - 49.22%, and the next month IV from 48.55% - 52.77% [46] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 83.60% - 95.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 70.60% - 93.60% [46] 3.10 CSI 300 Index - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased steadily, with a -1.16% drop on the 18th, a 0.08% increase on the 19th, and a 0.46% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 17.81% - 21.19%, and the next month IV from 20.05% - 21.24% [52] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 61.60% - 86.90%, and the next month IV quantiles were 64.40% - 85.00% [52] 3.11 CSI 1000 Index - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased slightly, with a -1.04% drop on the 18th, a -0.51% drop on the 19th, and a 0.69% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 19.76% - 28.60%, and the next month IV from 25.77% - 27.61% [60] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 26.50% - 80.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 56.70% - 85.00% [60] 3.12 SSE 50 Index - From September 18 - 22, 2025, the price increased slightly, with a -1.35% drop on the 18th, a -0.11% drop on the 19th, and a 0.43% increase on the 22nd; the current month IV ranged from 20.16% - 20.74%, and the next month IV from 57.39% - 80.72% [65] - The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 74.20% - 99.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 74.60% - 99.10% [65]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: None - **Bullish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Corn, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: None - **Bearish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bearish (★☆☆)**: Pig, Egg [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: None Core Views - The market is waiting for the performance of domestic soybean purchases later this month, and the overall supply of new soybean crops this year is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the soybean import trade [2]. - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean market is waiting for the purchase performance later this month, and the overall supply of new crops is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the import trade [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Pig - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. Egg - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Paper pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Logs: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate varies widely. Mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, and domestic peak - season demand is weak, dragging down cotton prices. After the short - term breakdown, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Sugar: Last week, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm is fast this year, and the market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3]. - Apple: The futures price fluctuated. The spot market for Shaanxi paper - bag apples is good, and the price of early - maturing apples is high. However, the supply - side lacks bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the short term [4]. - 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber: The futures market sentiment improved slightly. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there are typhoon risks. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate declined, and the tire operating rate increased slightly. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [6]. - Paper pulp: The paper pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The inventory in Chinese ports increased, and the supply is relatively loose while the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [7]. - Logs: The futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to remain low as the import willingness of traders is weak. The peak - season demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is small. The short - term price increase momentum is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. Summary by Commodity Cotton - Spot trading was weak, and new cotton pre - sales were good. The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the harvest probability was high, possibly exceeding 700 tons. Mills were cautious about purchases, and peak - season demand was weak, dragging down prices. After the breakdown, wait and see [2]. Sugar - In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, the sales rhythm was fast, and the market focused on the next season's output estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3]. Apple - The spot market for Shaanxi paper - bag apples was good, and the price of early - maturing apples was high. The supply - side lacked bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. The short - term futures price is expected to decline [4]. 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber - The futures market sentiment improved slightly. The global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period, and there were typhoon risks. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate declined, and the tire operating rate increased slightly. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased. Wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [6]. Paper pulp - The paper pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The inventory in Chinese ports increased, and the supply was relatively loose while the demand was average. Wait and see or trade within a range [7]. Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The supply was expected to remain low as the import willingness of traders was weak. The peak - season demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was small. The short - term price increase momentum was insufficient, and it was advisable to wait and see [8].

Report Investment Ratings - Stock index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending September 19, the stock index rebounded slightly after a brief shock last week, with some indices hitting new highs, but individual stock performance diverged. The risk - free rate has rebounded, but the capital side remains loose, and trading volume and margin trading leverage continue to rise. Foreign investors may still have a high level of attention to the A - share market, and foreign futures member seats are still in the stage of increasing positions, indicating that market risk appetite may still be high [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator scored 9 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 7 points [1]. - In terms of the term structure, the discount of stock index futures narrowed rapidly last week, and the near - month contracts of IF, IH, and IC all showed premiums, indicating strong bullish sentiment. However, the December contracts of IC and IM still had a large discount [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.45% last week, with profits coming from opening and closing a long position in TF on Wednesday. In the long - term, fixed - asset investment and social retail consumption were both lower than expected, and the overall economic data in August exerted significant pressure on stock index futures, while the rebound of treasury bond futures was not significant. In the short - term, the continuous decline of the US dollar index increased the contribution of the exchange rate to stock index futures. Currently, the capital side remains relatively loose, the margin trading balance remains high, and the overall market risk appetite remains high [1]. - In terms of open interest, the open interest of IC and IM decreased marginally, while that of IF and IH remained relatively neutral. The overall comprehensive signal was neutral and oscillating. For treasury bond futures, although the capital side remained loose, market risk appetite limited the upward space, the stock - bond seesaw effect decreased, the open - interest factor weakened marginally, and institutions were still cautious about allocation behavior, with the comprehensive signal being neutral and oscillating [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores - **Economic Kinetic Energy**: The weekly changes of different indicators varied, such as the blast furnace开工率 decreased by 1.28%, the开工率 of PTA decreased by 1.28%, while the炼油厂开工率 of Shandong refineries increased by 8.04%. The stock index futures score was 8, and the treasury bond futures score was 0 [2]. - **Inflation Indicators**: The weekly changes of various inflation - related indicators were different. For example, the vegetable basket product wholesale price index decreased by 0.32%, and the coking coal index increased by 4.61%. The stock index futures score was 7, and the treasury bond futures score was 8 [3]. - **Liquidity**: The weekly changes of liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. showed different trends. The stock index futures score was 8 [4]. - **Index Valuation**: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM), price - to - sales ratio (TTM), etc. had certain changes. The stock index futures score was 10 [5]. - **Market Sentiment - Stock Index**: The financing balance increased by 2.00%, and the margin - selling balance decreased by 0.22%. The treasury bond futures score was 9 [6]. - **Market Sentiment - Bond**: The yield of 10 - year CDB bonds decreased by 0.27%, and the S&P 500 volatility index increased by 4.67%. The treasury bond futures score was 7 [7]. Strategy Introduction - **Multi - Strategy for Financial Futures**: The product pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital - side high - frequency data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and low - frequency macro - economic data. The open - interest is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: Based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model (using the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function) and the trend - regression model. The signals are classified into three types: '1' (large spread may decrease), '0' (uncertain spread change or oscillation), '-1' (large spread may increase). In actual operation, a 1:1.8 ratio is used for the 10 - 5Y spread adjustment [21]. Market Signals - **Multi - Strategy Model Signals**: The short - term, long - term, and comprehensive signals of different futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM, T, TF) were provided, with specific values for each contract. The trading rules include taking the top 2 contracts with a comprehensive signal strength greater than or equal to 0.6 for long positions and the bottom 2 with a value less than or equal to 0.4 for short positions, and other rules such as signal shielding [18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Signals**: The N - S model and trend - regression model signals for TF and T main contracts from September 15 to September 19 were presented, showing different signal combinations on different days [24].

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Growth is ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [5] Core Viewpoints - In the week ending September 19, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.27%, -0.03%, and 0.24% respectively. The growth and cyclical styles of CITIC Five-Style closed up, while the others closed down. The growth style continued to strengthen in terms of indicator momentum [5] - Among public funds, the ordinary stock strategy performed well with a weekly return of 0.48%. The convertible bond strategy in the bond strategy weakened, and the pure bond strategy's return rebounded. The net value of the soybean meal ETF declined by 2.68%, and the return of the precious metal ETF slightly corrected [5] - In the neutral strategy, the basis of IH, IF, and IC contracts was within 1 standard deviation of the three - month average, and the IM contract was below -1 standard deviation of the three - month average, indicating that the hedging cost was still at a relatively high level [5] - The short - term momentum factor had a good performance with a weekly excess return of 1.84%. The leverage and ALPHA factors continued to weaken, and the winning rate of the dividend factor rebounded month - on - month [5] - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the growth style rebounded this week, while the consumption and stable styles weakened, and the current signal favored the growth style [5] Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - The ordinary stock strategy in the public fund market performed well with a weekly return of 0.48%. The convertible bond strategy in the bond strategy weakened, and the pure bond strategy's return rebounded. The net value of the soybean meal ETF declined by 2.68%, and the precious metal ETF's return slightly corrected [5] - The financial - style funds in the public fund pool had excellent excess performance with a weekly excess return of 3.14%. The product's deviation from the growth style increased marginally, and the overall market indicator of the crowding degree declined slightly this week. The financial style was in a historically high - crowding range [5] Equity Market Strategy - In the neutral strategy, as of last Friday, the basis of IH, IF, and IC contracts was within 1 standard deviation of the three - month average, and the IM contract was below -1 standard deviation of the three - month average, indicating a relatively high hedging cost. The premium rates of the spot index ETFs corresponding to IH and IF were in the high quantile range of the past three months, while those of IC and IM were in the medium quantile range [5] - The short - term momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 1.84%. The leverage and ALPHA factors continued to weaken, and the winning rate of the dividend factor rebounded month - on - month. The cross - section rotation speed of factors rebounded month - on - month and was currently in the low - to - medium quantile range of the past year [5] - According to the style timing model, the growth style rebounded this week, the consumption and stable styles weakened, and the signal favored the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -1.72%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was -0.71% [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene, Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX, PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip, Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea, PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market overall shows a complex situation with different products having varying supply - demand dynamics and price trends, some being weak, some in a state of multi - empty game, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts oscillated downward, breaking previous lows. Due to the restart of northern propylene plants, supply pressure increased, and market bearish sentiment rose. There is a long - short game between terminal enterprises' raw material replenishment demand and upstream capacity release, showing an overall weak oscillation [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts closed slightly lower. For polyethylene, supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance decreases and ship cargoes arrive. The demand support from the market is limited as only the agricultural film industry is in the peak season, and other downstream industries are cautious. For polypropylene, supply is expected to increase as the intensity of plant maintenance is expected to weaken. Demand is weak as most enterprises have meager profits and are cautious in procurement [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices continued to be weak. Although the actual fundamentals are okay with a decline in port inventory, the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3] - Styrene futures main contracts closed lower. Although there is an expected increase in pre - holiday market stocking, new device production release will lead to an increase in supply, and the increase in supply is greater than that in demand, so the price trend is weak [3] Polyester - PX supply - demand strong expectations are weakened, and valuation is under pressure due to postponed plant maintenance, slow increase in polyester load, and weak downstream weaving data. PTA industry profit is still poor, and the repair space of processing margin is limited. There is an expected pre - holiday downstream stocking for polyester yarn, which may relieve polyester inventory [4] - Ethylene glycol returns to the bottom of the range. Although the actual supply pressure is not large, the expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the commissioning dynamics of two new devices [4] - Short fiber futures prices declined. With limited new capacity this year, high load, and stable - to - decreasing inventory, the peak - season demand recovery boosts the industry expectation. It is recommended to allocate more in the near - month contract and enter the long - spread position at low prices [4] - Bottle chip operating rate declined slightly, with a slight reduction in inventory, a recovery in basis, and a slight repair in processing margin. However, over - capacity is a long - term pressure, and the repair space of processing margin is limited [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts continued to be weak. Although pre - holiday downstream stocking demand provides some support, high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the upward space of the market. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas plant gas restrictions [5] - Urea futures prices oscillated at a low level. Domestic daily production continued to increase, and the overall demand is still less than supply, with continuous inventory accumulation in production enterprises. The market may continue to be under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern with large inventory pressure. New device production will increase supply, and although downstream industries have a slight increase in pre - holiday replenishment, the industry continues to accumulate inventory, showing a weak oscillation trend [6] - Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Currently, it is in a weak reality pattern in Shandong, but there may be pre - stocking demand before the downstream alumina production, so the 2510 - 2601 spread long - spread position may continue to widen [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash industry has an over - supply pattern. With the earlier - than - expected ignition of Yuanxing's 4th row of boilers, supply pressure will continue. Although there was an increase in heavy soda demand driven by the photovoltaic industry before, it is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to short at high positions with caution near the cost [7] - Glass has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. Although the industry inventory has declined, the improvement in processing orders is insufficient. There is a game between weak reality and low - valuation macro - level benefits, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and look for long opportunities near the cost later [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market continues to rebound, but the poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The demand expectation is pessimistic, which restricts the upward space [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation. The supply has declined from the high level, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal. The inventory has increased, and there is still a pre - holiday restocking demand [3] - The coke price is relatively firm, with a small premium on the trading floor. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [4] - The coking coal price is relatively firm, with a premium on the trading floor. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [6] - The silicon manganese price has a good upward repair, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [7] - The ferrosilicon price has a good upward repair, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand has recovered, production has declined, and inventory has slightly decreased. The hot - rolled coil's demand has declined, production has increased, and inventory has re - accumulated. The hot - metal production remains high, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain has eased, but the poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption [2] - The real - estate investment decline has widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have continued to slow down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the steel export remains high [2] - The trading floor continues to rebound under the support of "anti - involution" and the Fed's interest - rate cut, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space, and the rhythm is still volatile [2] Iron Ore - The global iron - ore shipment has declined from the high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. The shipment from Australia and that to China has decreased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a relatively high level this year [3] - The steel mills' willingness to actively cut production is still insufficient. The short - term high - level hot metal continues to support the iron - ore demand. The steel mills' imported - ore inventory has increased significantly, and there is still a certain pre - holiday restocking demand [3] - The Fed's interest - rate cut overseas meets market expectations, and the expectation of domestic policy release has increased. It is expected that the short - term market speculation sentiment still exists, and the iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The third round of price cut in the coking industry is still expected, and some coking plants have started the first round of price increase, with intensified game [4] - The coking profit is average, the daily production has slightly decreased, and the overall coke inventory has increased. The traders' purchasing willingness has recovered due to the rising trading - floor price [4] - The carbon - element supply is abundant, the downstream hot - metal production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. Coupled with the pre - National - Day restocking sentiment, the price is relatively firm, and the coke trading floor has a small premium. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal mine production has slightly increased. The pre - National - Day restocking sentiment is strong, the spot auction transactions have increased, the transaction price has improved following the trading floor, and the terminal inventory has increased [6] - The total coking - coal inventory has increased month - on - month, the production - end inventory has slightly decreased, the short - term shutdown of coking coal has basically recovered, but the possibility of further large - scale capacity release is low under the background of over - production inspection [6] - The carbon - element supply is abundant, the downstream hot - metal production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. Coupled with the pre - National - Day restocking sentiment, the price is relatively firm, and the coking - coal trading floor has a premium. It is recommended to try going long at low prices [6] Silicon Manganese - The hot - metal production has continued to rise above 241. The weekly silicon - manganese production has continued to increase to a relatively high level, the silicon - manganese inventory has not increased, and the spot and futures demand is good [7] - The forward quotation of manganese ore has increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore has been boosted following the trading floor. The manganese - ore inventory has increased, but the inventory - building speed is slow [7] - The price valuation has been repaired upward, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The hot - metal production has continued to rise above 241. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month, the secondary demand has slightly declined marginally, and the overall demand is okay [8] - The ferrosilicon supply has recovered to a high level, the market's spot and futures demand is good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has slightly decreased [8] - The price valuation has been repaired upward, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [8]