★美国商务部长卢特尼克:预计在未来两天内将再发出15到20封关税信件；铜关税将于7月下旬或8月1日实 施,欧盟已表示将开放市场，制药、半导体关税研究将于月底完成。 ★美国财长贝森特:截至目前已收取1000亿美元关税,预计到年底关税收入可能增加至3000亿美元。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 | Millio | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月09日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属回落。上周美国非农数据超预期令市场放弃对7月降息押注，市场焦点转向即将到期的美国关税 政策、特朗普对部分国家加征关税但将最后期限延长至8月1日给各方谈 ...

【铝&氧化铝&铝合金】 今日沪铝震荡，华东现货贴水维持在50元。近期产业淡季负反馈显现，小幅累库，沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位 体现市场分歧大，美国关税政策调整风险下关注多头是否会持续减仓带来阶段性调整。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波 动，保太ADC12报价稳定在19500元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元以上但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差维 持在400-500元波动，价差如有扩大考虑多AD空AL个入，此外关注基差机会。近期过剩行业反内卷题材带动氧化 铝期现货上调，今日各地现货指数继续上调10-20元,上期所仓单库存极低需要甚差走低吸引仓单库存流入,期 货月差拉大暂震荡偏强，但国内氧化铝运行产能回升至历史高位，过剩前景下上方空间或有限。 【锌】 关税影响反复，资金倾向落袋为安，进一步入场偏谨慎,日内沪锌加权持仓再降3271手至25万手，资金拥挤度 继续下降，整体暂承压于60日均线。SMMO#锌均价较近月盘面实时升水50元/吨，收盘价07合约较08合约低20元/ 吨,前期Back结构明显走平,侧面印证基本面供增需弱。下游高价接货意愿不足,现货交投清淡。锌延续反弹 空配思路不改。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年07 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/7/9 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | | 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 | | | 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | | | | | | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/7/4 | | | 2025/6/30 至 | 2025/7/4 | | | | 螺纹钢 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特09合约涨0.62%。 美国EIA库存超预期增加712.8万桶,OPEC+延续快速 增产策略强化年内特别是四季度的供需宽松预期。但从三季度时间窗口来看,一方面石油旺季消费 对原油实货采购构成支撑，欧洲柴油的供应犹动引发炼化利润修复预期；另一方面，已被延期至8月 1日执行的美国对等关税最终博弈结构大概率弱于4月初水平,围绕伊核争端的中东地缘风险亦未彻 底消除,我们对三季度原油价格仍持底部抬升、震荡偏强判断,空头策略需等待旺季影响弱化后再 行介入。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太ADC12报价稳定在19500元，基差走低存在一定期现套利机会，交割 品牌溢价成交。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元以上但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差维持在400- 500元波动，价差如有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 隔夜贵金属回落。上周美国非农数据超预期令市场放弃对7月降息押注，降息暂时落空后市场焦点转 向即将到期的美国关税政策，特朗普对部分国家加征关税但将最后期限延长至8月1日给各方谈判提 供了缓冲，同时他表示拟对铜加征50 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: 3-star ratings (★★★) for Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Silicomanganese, and Ferrosilicon; no clear indication for Coking Coal and Manganese Silicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of short - term oscillation. The market is concerned about terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies. The steel market is cautious due to uncertainties in policies and demand. The iron ore market's upward movement depends on more policy support. The coke and coking coal markets face upward pressure due to inventory. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets follow the rebar trend with limited fundamental improvement [2][3][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today. Rebar's apparent demand increased, production rose, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory accumulated. Iron - water production decreased but stayed high. From the downstream perspective, infrastructure recovery lacks sustainability, real - estate sales are low, and manufacturing is resilient. The market is cautious due to policy uncertainties and "anti - involution" expectations, and it will oscillate in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today. Global shipments decreased after the end - of - quarter rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and port inventory increased. Steel apparent demand was stable at a low level, and steel mills' profitability was okay. There is still some production - cut pressure. The market sentiment improved, but further price increases need more policies. Iron ore's short - term trend will follow steel products [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but coking profits are thin, and daily production declined. Inventory decreased, and both traders' and steel mills' purchasing improved. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coke futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. Coking coal mine production increased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coking coal futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price oscillated upward during the day. Inventory decreased due to previous production cuts, but weekly production increased, and on - balance - sheet inventory rose. Manganese ore inventory is increasing in the long - term, and the current inventory is low, with mines having a stronger willingness to hold prices. The price of Comilog's oxidized ore increased slightly. The silicomanganese market follows the rebar trend, and there is significant pressure at the 6750 level [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated during the day. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was around 30,000 tons, with limited marginal impact. Magnesium production increased, and secondary demand was stable at a high level. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, market trading was average, on - balance - sheet inventory decreased, but production - end inventory increased. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction. The ferrosilicon market follows the rebar trend, and there is limited driving force for continuous price rebound [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (bullish, with a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and cost factors, resulting in different price trends and investment outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range due to supply reduction expectations and low downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials in the off - season. Attention should be paid to macro - aspects and Iranian shipping [2] Urea - The short - term urea market will be mainly in a strong and oscillating trend due to improved supply - demand and positive news. In the later stage, it awaits new policy guidance [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures lack direction in the short term. The polyethylene market is dull, and the polypropylene market is in a strong off - season atmosphere [4] Pure Benzene - On the first listing day, the pure benzene price rose slightly. It is under short - term inventory pressure, with expected seasonal improvement in the second half of the third quarter and pressure again in the fourth quarter. Different trading strategies are recommended [5] Styrene - The styrene futures price declined. The cost - end support weakened, and there is obvious supply pressure and high inventory, with poor spot trading [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices oscillate narrowly. PX supply - demand improves, while PTA supply - demand becomes looser. Ethylene glycol oscillates at the bottom. Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation, and caution is needed for the repair space of bottle - chip processing margins [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC futures may oscillate at a low level due to supply increase and weak demand. Caustic soda shows a strong trend in the short term but faces supply pressure in the long term [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices rose, but the high - inventory and weak - demand pattern persists, with limited upward space. Soda ash has inventory pressure, and its price is expected to have limited significant increase [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report As of the week ending July 6, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, flat with market expectations and the previous week, but lower than 68% in the same period last year. The emergence rate was 96% and the flowering rate was 32%. The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year, with a silking rate of 18%. The growth of US corn continued to improve. In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean-growing areas will fluctuate slightly around normal, and temperatures will be slightly below normal, with rainfall forecasts down significantly from previous weeks. As it has entered the weather trading window, investors should closely monitor the driving changes brought by weather changes from July to August. With no severe weather changes in the US for now, there is still some room for future price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Data**: The good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the emergence rate was 96%, and the flowering rate was 32%. The good-to-excellent rate remained flat compared to the previous week, while the emergence rate and flowering rate showed certain changes compared to the previous week and the same period last year [1]. - **Corn Data**: The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than market expectations and the previous week, and also higher than the same period last year. The silking rate was 18%, indicating that the growth of US corn continued to improve [1]. - **Weather Outlook**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean-growing areas will fluctuate slightly around normal, and temperatures will be slightly below normal. Rainfall forecasts have decreased significantly compared to previous weeks. It has entered the weather trading window, and investors should pay close attention to weather changes from July to August [1].

| | | | | | 原油 ★☆★ 燃料油 女女女 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ 沥青 女女女 液化石油气 ★☆☆ 能源日报 2025年07月08日 高明宇 首席分析师 F0302201 Z0012038 季祖智 中级分析师 F3063857 Z0016599 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 【原油】昨日国际油价低开高走,SC08合约日内涨1.88%。我们认为OPEC+的快速增产政策对三季度的油价冲击 暂时有限，一方面考虑到部分产油国的实际产量已远高于目标产量且同步存在减产补偿计划的约束，OPEG+实际 月度增产量均小于产量目标的上调幅度；另一方面，三季度为汽油、航煤需求的季节性旺季，本轮增产在夏季 尚可得到需求端较好的承接。而度过三季度旺季之后，若美国的对等关税政策依然延续,OPEC+产量的国归将对 基本面产生更直接的利空压力,在中东地缘局势保持可控的情景下油价重心面临进一步下移。豁免期延续至8月 1日的美国对等关税最终博弈结果或不高于4月初水平，原油短期仍持三季度底部抬升、震荡偏强的判断。 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【星级说明】红色 ...

| | | | VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年07月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | 棕榈油 | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 本周东北地区大部气温偏高，降水偏多，土壤铺情适宜。预计未来一周，华北、东北地区及西北地区东部多阵雨或雷阵雨天 气，较常年同期偏多3～6成，降雨利于补充土壤水分，对作物生长有利。今日国产 ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月08日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) (白糖) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，纺企开机继续下 行，纺企成品库存继续上升，库存压力有所显现。截至6月15号。棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍 然良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国 ...