Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts such as the US - Ukraine meeting and Saudi's air - strikes in Yemen bring geopolitical premiums to oil prices, while the short - term cease - fire is difficult, which restricts Russia's oil production and export [1]. - Precious metals have a significant decline recently. Although supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, the large increase driven by funds has accumulated risks, and exchanges have adjusted margins and trading restrictions [2]. - Different metals and energy products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper shows tight supply in 2026 Q1, while aluminum's follow - up rise lacks fundamental drive [3][4]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by factors like weather, supply, and demand. For instance, South American weather impacts soybean prices, and domestic policies and procurement affect domestic soybean prices [34][37]. - Building materials and chemical products' prices are also influenced by supply - demand relationships and policies. For example, PVC has a high - supply and low - demand pattern, and polypropylene's demand is weak [27][26]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper decreased in position to 96,000. It has priced in the tight supply of copper concentrates in 2026, especially Q1. The domestic spot discount has widened, and the SMM social inventory has increased to 214,800 tons. Hold an option combination of selling a call option with a strike price of 104,000 and buying a put option with a strike price of 98,000 [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, precious metals' sharp decline led to a fall in non - ferrous metals. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the rise, with weak fundamental drive, poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Long positions should be held with the 40 - day line as support, and the trend may adjust if it breaks [4]. - **Zinc**: TC continues to decline, refineries' production cuts continue, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased by 13,000 tons to 111,900 tons. The supply - side pressure has weakened, but consumption is in the off - season. The price of Shanghai zinc may fluctuate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Shanghai nickel has adjusted. The quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 will be reduced to 2.5 billion tons, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be modified. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Tin**: Overnight, the weighted position of Shanghai tin decreased, and it may continue to fall towards the long - term moving average. It is recommended to hold a call option with a strike price of 350,000 and observe the adjustment range [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It has a limit - down. The futures price is in a strong - side shock, but above 120,000 yuan, it deviates from the fundamentals, and it is short - term bearish [10]. Energy - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors support prices in the short term, but do not change the supply - surplus situation. Low - sulfur supply is affected by overseas refinery operations, and the demand for ship fuel is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak - side operation [20]. - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment has been below 400,000 tons. The geopolitical conflict may bring a phased rebound, but it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand looseness [21]. Building Materials - **Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil)**: The night - session steel prices fluctuated. Rebar's apparent demand decreased in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil's demand recovered. The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price may fluctuate in a range [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment has increased, and the domestic arrival volume may increase in the future. With the iron - making water production likely at the bottom, there is support for the short - term price, but it is expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices of both fluctuated downward. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience, but the pressure on raw material prices remains. The price may face fundamental pressure after correcting the premium or discount [15][16]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol market is strong. The port inventory increased last week, but it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session oil price rebounded, and the pure benzene price slightly declined. The port inventory is high, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. It is advisable to consider the spread positive arbitrage in the medium - term [24]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The demand support for the market is weak. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand for polypropylene is also weak [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and North Ports is strong. The cold weather makes farmers reluctant to sell. The price of Dalian corn futures may oscillate strongly in the short - term [38]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs increased over the weekend. The short - term price may remain strong, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is in a low - level oscillation. The 2 - month contract may be weak, while the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be relatively strong [40]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton decreased yesterday. Although the new cotton production increased this year, the commercial inventory is low, and the sales progress is fast. The price shows an oscillating and strong trend [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, and the Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded, but the rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is scarce, and the market demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view [43]. Others - **Shipping (Container Freight Index - Europe Line)**: The current spot freight rate is around $2900/FEU. Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate may first rise and then fall. The market will become clearer after the release of the opening - cabin price in mid - January [19]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price dropped significantly yesterday. The short - term rise is limited by weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [45]. - **Stock Index**: A - share indices were mixed yesterday, and stock index futures closed down. In a loose liquidity and strong - RMB environment, A - shares are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to track the rotation opportunities of different sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures generally closed down on December 29, 2025. The short - end has strong certainty, and it is advisable to participate in the curve - steepening strategy in the short - term [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may continue to be volatile and relatively strong, and the implied volatility of various financial options remains at a low level within the year [3] - The strong performance of precious metals last week drove the non - ferrous metals sector to rise. The strong RMB and loose external liquidity support the volatile and strong pattern of the stock index [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overview - The market showed an upward trend last week, with major indices rising weekly. The CSI 500 index led the gains with a weekly increase of 4.03%. Non - ferrous metals and national defense and military industries had prominent performances with weekly increases of 6.42% and 6.00% respectively, while beauty care and social services sectors were weak with weekly declines of about 1.08% and 1.05% respectively [1] - The market focus was on the US dollar liquidity and the strong market of precious metals. The US dollar index continued its weak and volatile trend, and the liquidity environment remained loose. Precious metals continued their sharp rise after the central bank meeting. The RMB exchange rate was strong, supporting the domestic market [1] Options Market - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options mainly declined and remained at a relatively low level within the year. The implied volatility of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option had the deepest decline of 3.10%. The implied volatility of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 option (IV = 24%) and the ChiNext Index option (IV = 24%) has fallen below the median of the past year [2] - The IV of 50 and 300 options is currently in the range of 12% - 14%, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is in the range of 17% - 18%. The PCR of the positions of most financial options is still in the range of 90% - 120%, showing a decline from the previous week [2] Strategy Outlook - Hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations such as CSI 300 and CSI A500. As the current option IV has declined, consider buying long - dated out - of - the - money call options of the corresponding indices [3] - For the Science and Technology Innovation 50 index, which has large recent fluctuations and relatively high static valuations, if holding the underlying assets, consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If there are substantial spot gains, consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small number of long - dated call options [3] - Since the discount of the CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures has converged, consider rolling over to the 2606 contract with a higher discount to form a covered call strategy of long stock index and short out - of - the - money call options [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The article analyzes the feasibility and risk points of platinum's cross - market arbitrage by sorting out historical price difference data between domestic and overseas platinum markets. It points out that theoretically, cross - market positive arbitrage strategies are highly feasible when the price of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is much higher than overseas spot or futures prices, and also reminds investors of the risks involved in cross - market arbitrage operations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feasibility of Cross - Market Arbitrage in Theory - China encourages platinum imports and allows exports. However, China is a net importer of platinum with extremely low domestic production and high import dependence. When the price of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is much higher than overseas prices, cross - market positive arbitrage strategies are theoretically highly feasible [2]. - There are essential differences between China's import requirements for platinum and gold. Gold imports are strictly regulated, while platinum imports are managed as regular goods, and since November 1, 2025, platinum has been subject to import - link VAT. Platinum exports are mainly managed as general goods trade, with some special regulations for "unwrought platinum" [3][4][5]. 3.2 Sorting of Platinum's Cross - Market Price Differences - Due to the late listing of domestic platinum futures, the spot price difference between Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum and LME platinum from January 1, 2011, to December 23, 2025, is used as a reference. The import cost of platinum before November 1, 2025, and after is estimated differently, and then the cross - market spot price difference is calculated [6]. - The statistical characteristics of the cross - market price difference show that most of the time, the domestic spot price is lower than the overseas spot price. When the cross - market spot price difference exceeds two standard deviations from the mean, it shows an obvious mean - reversion characteristic [7]. 3.3 Risk Points in Cross - Market Arbitrage Execution - Currently, the price difference between Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum and COMEX platinum based on closing prices is significantly higher than the historical maximum, indicating a cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunity from a statistical arbitrage perspective. However, cross - market arbitrage in the futures market is affected by many factors, and investors should consider the following risk points [9][11]. - **Short - term continuous expansion of cross - market price differences**: The cross - market price difference in the futures market may continue to expand due to one - sided market sentiment. Cross - market reverse arbitrage investors should prepare for physical delivery [11]. - **Fund and liquidity pressure**: During periods of increased price volatility, both the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and COMEX may adjust margin requirements, trading fees, and price limits, increasing capital costs and reducing liquidity. Insufficient capital allocation may lead to forced liquidation [11]. - **Mismatch in trading time and holidays**: The trading hours of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and COMEX are different, and their holiday arrangements also vary. During the holiday of one market, the price of the other open market may fluctuate sharply, making it difficult to manage risks in a timely manner [12]. - **Policy impact**: Policy factors may affect the global logistics of platinum and the cross - market price ratio, causing historical price differences to become invalid [12]. - **Exchange rate risk**: Arbitrage involves the conversion between RMB and the US dollar. Although the RMB is generally rising against the US dollar, exchange rate fluctuations during the trading period may erode profits [12].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年12月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。淡季螺纹表需下滑，产量继续小幅回升，库存延续去化态势。热卷需求回暖，产量小幅回升，去库有所加 快，压力仍有待缓解。供应压力逐步缓解，钢厂利润边际改善，高炉城产态势放缓，铁水有所企稳，关注唐山等地环保限产持 续性。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依 ...

| | | 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 农产品日报 | VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2025年12月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | なな☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | な☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约表现偏强,上周政策端竞价拍卖成交较好,并且溢价成交,给豆一带来支撑。现货方面大豆 收购价格表现为上调。进口大豆方面南美新季大豆目前仍然是维持丰产预期， ...

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落，棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大，但商业库存同比偏低，销售进度偏快，也 给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号，累计加工皮棉669.7万吨，同比增加75.8万吨，较过 去四年均值增加141.4万吨。国内商业库存同比偏低，截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存为534.9万吨，同比减少1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (short - term trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable) [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not fundamentally changed the pattern of oversupply in the energy market, and most energy products are expected to be under pressure [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the US - Ukraine talks, the geopolitical premium has a pulsed impact on oil prices, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists. The US Department of Energy predicts that in 2026, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventories may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [1] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are short - term fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil has potential demand support, but high inventory pressure is significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to increased supply and lack of strong demand [2] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has been at a low level in the past four years. The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose, and it will return to a price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 4% last week, with precious metals leading the way with a 9.69% increase. The short - term commodity market may run stably due to the loose dollar liquidity [2]. - The Fed's loose outlook and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The short - term market fluctuates greatly as various varieties hit new highs [2]. - The non - ferrous sector may oscillate strongly in the short term due to the weak dollar and the support from the expected contraction of mine supply [3]. - The black sector may oscillate as the demand and supply situation is complex, with factors such as changes in steel mill production and raw material supply [3]. - Oil prices continue to be under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand background, despite the geopolitical tension in Venezuela [3]. - The polyester chemical varieties may be affected by supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - The short - term trend of agricultural products and oils and fats is expected to be oscillatory, influenced by factors such as weather and export expectations [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The overall commodity market rose 4% last week, with precious metals up 9.69%, non - ferrous metals up 4.97%, energy and chemicals up 2.98%, agricultural products up 2.53%, and black metals up 0.08%. Silver, PTA, and nickel were the top gainers, while tin, coke, and rebar were the top losers [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased, with only the black and coal - chemical related varieties showing a decline in volatility. The overall market scale increased, but only the precious metal and non - ferrous sectors had net inflows, with most funds concentrated in silver [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's loose policy and geopolitical risks, the shortage of spot makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds. The gold - silver ratio has fallen below the average. Exchange restrictions and risk warnings have led to large short - term market fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The weak dollar and better - than - expected GDP growth in the US provide a neutral - warm macro environment. Although the inventory is increasing and the spot premium is weakening, the expected contraction of mine supply supports the price, and the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The demand for rebar decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The slowdown of blast furnace production cuts and the stable molten iron output need attention to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions. The supply of raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The geopolitical tension in Venezuela increases the risk premium of crude oil, but the impact on global supply is limited. The US shale oil production remains high, and oil prices are under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand situation [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: Polyester varieties may face supply pressure from device restarts, but the strong expectation remains, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The improving weather in South America and the expected transition of La Nina to ENSO neutral increase the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The fundamentals of palm oil are less negative, and the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillatory [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns last week, with the total scale of gold ETFs increasing by 0.77% and the total trading volume increasing by 29.04%. The total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 0.86% and the trading volume increased by 23.22% [36]. - Among them, the returns of different gold ETFs ranged from 3.21% to 3.60%, and the return of the silver fund was 17.43%, while the returns of energy - chemical, bean - meal, and non - ferrous metal ETFs were 4.25%, 1.69%, and 4.34% respectively [36][38].

【铝&氧化铝&铝合金】 今日沪铝冲高回落偏强震荡，华东、中原、华南现货贴水大幅扩大至-200元、-390元、-280元，铝锭铝棒社库 较上周四分别增加2.8万吨和1.2万吨。近期贵金属有色亢奋，沪铝跟涨为主，多头背靠40日线持有，但铝市基 本面驱动不足，表观需求和现货反馈不佳，暂谨慎看待上方空间。今日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21900 元。废铝依然偏紧，税务调整令部分地区成本面临上调。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季节性表现弱于往 年、价差维持在千元附近。上周发改委发文提及对氧化铝等强资源约束型产业强化管理,氧化铝盘面大幅上 涨，但政策指导落地还需要时间。氧化铝平衡持续处于显著过刺，随着铝土矿价格回落成本有下降空间，现金 成本核算仍有利润。短期氧化铝价格接近触发减产,跌势放缓,多空博弈加剧放大盘面波动,但中期企稳还需 等待规模减产形成。 【锌】 TC继续回落，炼厂减产延续，SMM锌社库环比下滑1.3万吨至11.19万吨，比价不利于锌锭进口。供应端压力减 弱,但消费处谈季,叠加元旦假期临近,资金短线交投为主,沪锌缺乏方向性驱动,反复测试2.3万整数关。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，追求"开门红 ...

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