| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购价格的指引。今年大豆新作总体供应预期向好。国内大豆和进口大豆价差反 弹,进口大豆价格疲软,由于阿根廷临时取消农产品出口税,以便于增加美元收入,缓解比索的贬值压力,因 此阿根廷豆类品种出口短期会有明显的增量。即使中国不采购美国大豆，叠加中国大豆还有庞大的库存，也容 易使得明年一季度中国大豆 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 甘肃省 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 1 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】 今日RU&NR&BR均小跌，期货市场情绪略有改善。国内天然橡胶现价下跌，合成橡胶现价稳定。外盘丁二烯港口价稳定、泰国原 料市场价格跌多稳少。供应方面,目前全球天然橡胶供应进入高产期,24-26日"桦加沙"超强台风将登陆海南和越南等产区; 上周国内丁二烯橡胶装置开工率继续大幅回落，山东威特、 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak domestic demand and cautious market sentiment [2] - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level with support from high hot metal production and limited inventory build - up pressure [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4][6] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices show good performance with upward - repaired valuations, and it is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7][8] Summary by Industry Steel - The futures market declined today. Thread apparent demand recovered, production continued to fall, and inventory decreased slightly. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory accumulated again. High hot metal production eased the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain, but poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the market was cautious, and the bearish demand outlook restricted the upside of the futures market [2] Iron Ore - The futures market declined today. Global shipments fell from a high level, slightly stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory decreased last week with no significant short - term inventory build - up pressure. Domestic terminal demand was weak, steel mills had slight profits and low willingness to cut production actively. High hot metal production last week continued to support iron ore demand. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still some pre - festival replenishment demand. Market speculation cooled down. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated during the day. The first round of coking price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly. Overall coke inventory increased. With the rise in futures prices, traders' purchasing willingness improved. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a slight premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated during the day. Mongolian coal customs clearance suspended during the National Day holiday and will resume on October 8. Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, spot auction transactions increased, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory increased, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The resumption of production in coking coal mines was basically completed, and it was less likely to significantly increase production capacity under the over - production inspection. Sufficient carbon supply, high hot metal production, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment supported prices. The futures market was at a premium. It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Weekly silicon manganese production continued to increase, and inventory did not accumulate. Spot and futures demand was good. Manganese ore forward quotes rose slightly, and spot ore was boosted. Manganese ore inventory increased slowly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Hot metal production continued to rise above 2.41 million tons. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Magnesium metal production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, spot and futures market demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly. The price valuation was upward - repaired, and the performance during the day was good. It is recommended to buy on dips under the "anti - involution" background [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - **Title**: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - **Date**: September 23, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week. The factor intensities of energy and agricultural products declined, while the black sector rose. The precious metals sector was strong in the cross - section, and the energy and agricultural products sectors were weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors showed different trends last week, and the comprehensive signals were different for various commodities. The fundamental factors also presented different characteristics for different commodities [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sector Metals - **Black Sector**: The momentum factors of coking coal and coke increased marginally, and the term structure of rebar was stronger than that of iron ore [3]. - **Non - ferrous Sector**: The position factor of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and copper was strong in the cross - section [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold remained unchanged, and the momentum of silver continued to rise marginally with an expanding internal difference [3]. Energy and Chemicals - The cross - sectional momentum differentiation of the energy and chemical sector narrowed, and soda ash was weak in the cross - section [3]. Agricultural Products - The short - cycle momentum factors of soybean oil and palm oil remained low, but the position increased marginally. The time - series momentum of agricultural products declined [3]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.18%, the spread factor decreased by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.14%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned to long. The supply, demand, and spread signals turned to long, and the inventory signal turned to short [5]. - **Shanghai Lead**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.02%, the demand factor decreased by 0.23%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor was flat compared with the previous week. This week, the comprehensive signal remained short. The supply signal remained neutral, the inventory signal turned to short, and the spread signal turned from long to short [5]. - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.28%, the demand factor weakened by 0.02%, the inventory factor increased by 0.40%, the spread factor increased by 0.01%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal was short. The supply side was neutral, the demand side turned to long, the inventory side remained short, and the spread side was short [3]. - **Float Glass**: Last week, the returns of major factors were flat compared with the previous week. This week, the comprehensive signal was long. The supply side remained neutral, the demand side was neutral, the inventory side was long, the profit side was slightly long, and the spread side was slightly short [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market uncertainty for copper remains high, with pre - holiday stocking leading to price fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina show that the market is in a state of over - supply, and the performance of apparent consumption is not as expected. Zinc is suggested to be short - sold on rebounds. Lead shows signs of a phased improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from imported ingots. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak trend. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and a "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended. Lithium carbonate is in a state of price oscillation under the influence of various factors. Industrial silicon has an over - supply situation, and polysilicon may face callback pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the situation of precious metals. There is a large price fluctuation, and the market focuses on economic indicators. The overall uncertainty is high [1]. - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable. Although the peak - season signal is not obvious, the market enters the pre - holiday stocking period. The inventory has a small outflow, and production has decreased month - on - month. The scrap - copper enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the market pays attention to imports [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Some mines have production problems, affecting the supply [1]. - **Trend**: There is a certain boost from pre - holiday stocking, but attention should be paid to consumption indicators. It is recommended to stop losses on previous long positions and then wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has increased, the market is in an over - supply state, and the profit still has room for compression. The support level is around 2,600 yuan [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, with mainly capacity replacement [1]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing enterprises' operating rate has a small change, and the export situation is different for different products. After the implementation of counter - tariffs, exports remain rigid [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The aluminum ingot social inventory has increased slightly, and the aluminum rod social inventory has decreased. The spot discount has narrowed, and the processing fee has risen [1]. - **Trend**: The downstream is in the seasonal peak, but the inventory has not shown a turning point. The apparent consumption is lower than expected. The support level of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking effect [1]. Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest - rate cut, the price has fallen. The internal and external price differences have changed, and the import ore price is not good [1]. - **Supply**: The LME inventory is low, and the domestic smelter inventory is being repaired. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month, and the social inventory has decreased [1]. - **Consumption**: It is still the off - peak season in the peak season. Although the downstream has increased low - price purchases during the National Day holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1]. - **Trend**: Both the internal and external zinc ingot inventories are decreasing. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is recommended to take the opportunity of the pre - holiday rebound to short - sell [1]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is in a low - level consolidation, and the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and an increase in positions [1]. - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic primary lead supply is restricted by raw materials. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low. Imported ingots are arriving in China, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The inventories of smelters have decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals are improving, but the imported ingot supply is expected to be strong. The upper pressure level is 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The Shanghai nickel is in a low - level shock, and the stainless steel has a slight rebound. The trading activity is low [1]. - **Macro and demand**: After the interest - rate cut, the long - position holders tend to cash out. The downstream is cautious, and the high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging. The cost support is obvious [1]. - **Supply and inventory**: The premiums of different products are different. The nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is in a weak trend and is about to start a downward trend [1]. Tin - **Market**: The internal and external prices have encountered resistance and declined, and the LME squeeze - out situation has basically ended [1]. - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and overseas raw materials is tight [1]. - **Consumption**: After the price has dropped to the support level, there is a demand for low - price purchases. The inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1]. - **Trend**: After the reduction of the internal and external position risks, the market focus turns to the domestic market. It is difficult for the price to show a trend. A "high - selling and low - buying" trading style is recommended [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price has oscillated and rebounded, and the market speculation has declined. The difference between long and short positions has decreased [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The traditional car sales season has driven the growth of material factory orders. The overall industry demand is strong. The total market inventory has decreased, and the smelter inventory has decreased while the downstream inventory has increased [1]. - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling actions are basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is under pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have shown different trends. The price of industrial silicon has broken through 9,000 yuan/ton due to cost support [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The production is expected to increase from September to October. The demand side has different situations for different industries. The overall supply is expected to be in an over - supply situation [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, including the increase in ordinary inventory and delivery inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is affected by the upward cost of coal and the expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price has oscillated in a range and shown a downward trend. The market sentiment has cooled down. The spot price has a slight upward adjustment [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The output of leading enterprises may decline in October, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production, while the component price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is unevenly distributed, and the total inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The elimination of excess capacity is gradually advancing. The market sentiment has a weakened boosting effect. The futures price may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategy - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100. The reasons are the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 3.045 to 3.054, with a 0.30% increase on the 22nd and 0.00% on the 23rd; the monthly IV increased from 18.07% to 21.49%, and the next - month IV decreased from 18.96% to 18.43% [1] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 84.80% and the 2 - year reaching up to 91.00% [1] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 85.59 [2] 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 4.604 to 4.622, with a 0.33% increase on the 22nd and 0.06% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 18.21% to 16.03%, and the next - month IV decreased slightly from 19.78% to 19.51% [3] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 63.70% and the 2 - year reaching up to 75.20% [3] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 96.85 [5] 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 4.747 to 4.762, with a 0.36% increase on the 22nd and - 0.04% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 19.54% to 17.19%, and the next - month IV decreased from 20.66% to 20.39% [9] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 68.50% and the 2 - year reaching up to 81.70% [9] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 94.82 [11] 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 7.261 to 7.277, with a - 1.30% decrease on the 19th, 0.36% increase on the 22nd, and 0.22% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 24.13% to 16.69%, and the next - month IV increased from 25.49% to 25.99% [13] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 70.60% and the 2 - year reaching up to 80.10% [13] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 106.94 [16] 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 2.903 to 2.906, with a - 0.34% decrease on the 19th, 0.69% increase on the 22nd, and - 0.58% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 23.80% to 16.57%, and the next - month IV decreased from 26.02% to 25.31% [21] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 65.70% and the 2 - year reaching up to 77.00% [21] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 102.72 [24] 3.6 ChiNext ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 3.062 to 3.093, with a - 0.16% decrease on the 19th, 0.65% increase on the 22nd, and 0.36% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 37.86% to 30.72%, and the next - month IV decreased from 42.49% to 41.28% [25] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 91.50% and the 2 - year reaching up to 95.70% [25] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 97.74 [29] 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 3.475 to 3.494, with a 0.38% increase on the 19th, 0.55% on the 22nd, and 0.00% on the 23rd; the monthly IV increased from 24.53% to 25.27%, and the next - month IV increased from 27.03% to 28.34% [35] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 70.60% and the 2 - year reaching up to 83.20% [35] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 96.93 [38] 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 1.431 to 1.475, with a - 1.31% decrease on the 19th, 3.35% increase on the 22nd, and - 0.27% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 44.82% to 41.63%, and the next - month IV decreased from 49.19% to 48.22% [42] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 90.30% and the 2 - year reaching up to 94.20% [42] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 94.59 [45] 3.9 STAR 50ETF - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 1.398 to 1.442, with a - 1.20% decrease on the 19th, 3.51% increase on the 22nd, and - 0.35% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 46.57% to 41.58%, and the next - month IV decreased from 50.41% to 47.52% [49] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 87.30% and the 2 - year reaching up to 94.20% [49] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 93.04 [52] 3.10 300 Index - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 4501.920 to 4519.778, with a 0.08% increase on the 19th, 0.46% on the 22nd, and - 0.06% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 21.19% to 20.20%, and the next - month IV increased from 20.05% to 20.54% [56] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 83.00% and the 2 - year reaching up to 86.90% [56] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 95.20 [63] 3.11 1000 Index - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 7438.189 to 7408.069, with a - 0.51% decrease on the 19th, 0.69% increase on the 22nd, and - 1.09% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased slightly from 27.67% to 27.93%, and the next - month IV increased from 25.77% to 26.92% [64] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 74.20% and the 2 - year reaching up to 80.50% [64] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 106.39 [67] 3.12 Shanghai 50 Index - From September 19 - 23, 2025, the price changed from 2909.744 to 2919.515, with a - 0.11% decrease on the 19th, 0.43% increase on the 22nd, and - 0.09% on the 23rd; the monthly IV decreased from 20.74% to 19.89%, and the next - month IV increased from 57.44% to 58.30% [68] - The monthly IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year periods were relatively high, with the 1 - year monthly IV quantile reaching up to 83.60% and the 2 - year reaching up to 92.40% [68] - The skew index of the main contract month on September 23 was 92.99 [74]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Argentina's temporary cancellation of agricultural export taxes will lead to a significant short - term increase in the export of soybean and related products, likely alleviating the previously worried tight supply situation in the Chinese market in Q1 2026 [7][10] - If China does not purchase US soybeans, the US soybean export demand will be impacted, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure [9][10] - It is advisable to be cautious about the subsequent basis pressure of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal, and domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, with palm oil stronger than soybean oil [10] - The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will squeeze the US soybean export market, and the US soybean price may test a short - term low [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Argentina's Reason for Temporary Cancellation of Agricultural Product Export Taxes - After the political setback of President Milei's party in the local elections in Buenos Aires Province in early September, the Argentine peso exchange rate plummeted. To attract dollars and increase the supply of dollars in the domestic market to ease the depreciation pressure of the peso, the government decided to cancel the export tax on soybeans and their products from September 22 to October 31 [1] Assessment of China's Soybean Supply Situation - As of the week of September 10, 2025, Argentina's 24/25 annual soybean cumulative sales volume was 31.89 million tons, accounting for 62.6% of the expected output of 50.9 million tons, with 19.01 million tons unsold. The short - term supply of soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal in the international market is expected to increase [3] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean crushing volume was 23.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (1.5%). Based on the estimated monthly crushing volume of 3.8 million tons from September to December, the remaining exportable volume is about 3.8 million tons [3] - The USDA estimates Brazil's 24/25 annual soybean output at 169 million tons. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean crushing volume decreased by 1.45 million tons (4.5%) year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 1.81 million tons (2.4%) year - on - year. The remaining exportable volume is about 20 million tons [4] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean export volume was 3.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons (5.5%). After the cancellation of the export tax, the total soybean export volume is expected to increase. It is assumed that the export volume will reach 3.8 million tons in October, and about 90% will be exported to China [4] - Considering the 2 - month shipping time from Brazil and Argentina to China, the monthly average arrival volume in Q4 2025 is expected to be 8.5 - 9 million tons, and in Q1 2026, it is expected to be 3.5 - 4 million tons. Even without purchasing US soybeans, China's soybean supply gap in Q1 2026 is likely to disappear [7] China's Non - Purchase of New US Soybean Crops - The USDA estimates the US 25/26 annual soybean output at 117 million tons, with an expected export volume of 45.85 million tons (39% of the output). Historically, nearly half of US soybean exports went to China. As of September 11, China's purchase volume of US soybeans was zero. If China does not purchase, the US soybean export demand will be affected, and the inventory pressure will increase, leading to a short - term downward pressure on prices [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]

| Mi | > 國授期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续强势。上周美联储风险管理式降息，鲍威尔表态谨慎显示通胀压力仍存,地缘博弈局面难 解。此外需关注美国政府停摆、美联储独立性等问题的演绎。黄金ETF需求快速增长，贵金属中期偏强趋势 未改但短期保持谨慎。今晚关注美国9月SPGI制造业PMI初值和鲍威尔针对经济前景的讲话。 ★美联储博斯蒂克：当前没有太多理由进一步降息，预期今年只降息一次；穆萨莱姆：进一步降息的空间有 限。如果通胀风险增加，将不会支持进一步降息；哈玛克：在解除政策限制时应非常谨慎，我对中性利率的 估计属于较高的那一批；米兰：认为适当的利率处于2%的中间区域。目前不支持对2%的通胀目标进行调 ...