Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment operation suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory and other factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with spot sales poor but prices stable. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory is low year - on - year, and sales progress is fast, supporting the market. As of December 25, 669.7 million tons of lint cotton was processed, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. As of December 15, commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is resilient, and their finished product inventory is not high. Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong and volatile trend, and industries can look for hedging opportunities, with current operation being to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. As of December 27, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production was 127.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.06 million tons. In Brazil, rainfall increased in December. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow and output decreased year - on - year. In the short term, the northern hemisphere has a strong production increase expectation, so the sugar price rebound is limited. In the long - term, major producers may have production cuts next year, and weather conditions should be monitored [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. As of December 26, national cold - storage apple inventory was 702.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.76%, and the destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.17%. The market trading logic is shifting to demand. The quality of apples this year is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the reluctance to sell of traders and farmers may affect destocking. Currently in the off - season, demand has decreased, and market sentiment is bearish. Operation should remain bearish [4] 20 - number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR futures prices fluctuated sharply, butadiene rubber BR futures prices dropped, and domestic natural and synthetic rubber spot prices were stable. Global natural rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period, with Chinese Yunnan fully stopped, Hainan gradually stopping, and Vietnam to follow. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rose significantly. China's all - steel tire operating rate decreased, semi - steel tire operating rate increased, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory rose. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 52.5 million tons this week, while China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 1.47 million tons, and upstream butadiene port inventory increased to 4.33 million tons. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are expected to be strong, and BR should be observed [5] Pulp - Pulp prices rose today, but the short - term increase may be limited due to weak downstream demand. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 190.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.7 million tons from the previous period, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease. In November, China imported 324.6 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 44 million tons. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supports softwood pulp. Paper mills purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the pulp market is highly competitive. Operation should be to wait and see [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. External quotes decreased, domestic prices were weak, and short - term arrivals will decrease. As of December 26, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 5.83 million cubic meters, a 7.75% week - on - week decrease. As of December 26, national port timber inventory was 254 million cubic meters, a 2.31% month - on - month decrease. Low inventory supports prices. Operation should be to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Two stars, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market is in a complex situation with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and cost [2][3][5] - Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others have expectations of improvement in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term pressures [5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Downstream polypropylene cost pressure eased slightly, but demand recovery was limited as some polypropylene plants were still shut down [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had narrow - range movements. For polyethylene, imports were increasing, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated. Port inventory was high, but supply - demand pressure might ease in the future. Consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range movement. Cost had no obvious positive impact, and there were expectations of supply - demand increase and inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PX prices were driven up by strong expectations but deviated from downstream demand. PTA was mainly affected by PX, with expectations of low - load inventory reduction and margin repair [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased, and inventory increased. It was in a low - level fluctuation, with potential improvement in the second quarter but long - term pressure [5] - Short fiber inventory was low, and it was in the off - season. Its price followed raw materials, and long - term supply - demand was relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it was cost - driven with long - term overcapacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose sharply. Import volume was expected to decrease, and port inventory might enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spreads [6] - Urea prices were strongly volatile. Supply was tightening, but it might increase this week, and short - term prices might decline [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC had a slightly upward trend. Supply might increase, demand was low, and inventory pressure was high. It was expected to move within a range [7] - Caustic soda prices were strong. Supply pressure was high, downstream demand growth was limited, and profit compression was expected [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were strong. Production was increasing, inventory was decreasing, but there was long - term supply - demand surplus. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash 05 [8] - Glass prices were strong. Capacity was being reduced, inventory pressure was high, and long - term capacity reduction was expected to reach a new balance [8]

1. Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs - **Neutral (★☆☆)**: Eggs [1] - **Unclear (White Star)**: Domestic Soybeans [1] 2. Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand balance and inventory levels. Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Domestic Soybeans - The main contract of domestic soybeans is relatively strong. The auction price is slightly lower than the previous two times but still firm, and the spot purchase price has increased. South American new - season soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, with improved weather in Brazil and Argentina [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to drop to about 1.8 million tons, with reduced soybean meal output. The downstream feed demand is weak, and the end - of - month inventory may remain high at about 1 million tons. The trading logic focuses on concerns about US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. The price of soybean meal will oscillate at the bottom following US soybeans [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the main contracts of domestic soybean and palm oil reduced positions, and prices rebounded. South American new - season soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and domestic soybean crushing volume remains high. There are concerns about the customs clearance rhythm of domestic soybeans. Malaysian palm oil has high - inventory pressure, and the short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market rebounded slightly today. Due to the delay in Australian seed crushing, the inventory of coastal rapeseed oil mills remains low. The EU slightly adjusted the rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet. The rapeseed futures price is under medium - term pressure but lacks short - term driving forces, so it is recommended to wait and see [6] Corn - The main corn futures contract C2603 opened high and closed low, down 0.31%. The spot price in Northeast and North ports is strong. The resumption of low - price old wheat auctions in early 2026 may suppress corn prices. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high, and the Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] Live Hogs - The main live hog 03 contract continued to rise and hit a new high, but other contracts did not break through yesterday's high. Some provinces started second - fattening replenishment in late December. Short - term spot prices may remain strong, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year, so it is recommended to short on rallies for the 03 contract [8] Eggs - Egg futures adjusted weakly with a small reduction in positions. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation, showing an oversupply situation. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, while the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be stronger. The second - half - year peak - season contracts have high premiums, and the trading rhythm may be volatile [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: Threaded steel, hot rolled steel, and iron ore are rated ☆☆☆; coke and coking coal are rated ★☆★; silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are rated ★★☆ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has minor supply - demand contradictions, with a cautious market sentiment. The short - term steel futures market will mainly fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes. The iron ore price is expected to be supported in the short term but will mainly fluctuate. The coke and coking coal prices face fundamental pressure after discount repair, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, leading to intensified capital games. For silicon manganese and ferrosilicon, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuated today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declined, while its production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot rolled steel recovered, with production rising slightly and inventory reduction accelerating, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized. The real estate investment decline continued to expand, and the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high. The market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month and reached a new high this year, while the domestic arrival volume decreased month - on - month with an expected increase in the future. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the news of a possible increase in stacking costs strengthened the supply release expectation. The steel mill profitability has improved recently, and the molten iron production last week was basically stable. The iron ore supply pressure is still high, but with the sign of molten iron production bottoming out and the expectation of steel mill winter storage replenishment, the short - term price is expected to be supported, and the future trend will mainly be fluctuating [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward today. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has fully landed, the coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. Currently, downstream customers purchase on a small - scale and demand - based basis, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low. The demand for raw materials still has some resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the discount repair, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game in the futures market has intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward today. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume decreased seasonally. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and completion of annual production tasks. The spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly while the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low. The demand for raw materials still has some resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the discount repair, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game in the futures market has intensified [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated strongly today. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There is a structural problem in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The semi - carbonate manganese ore price increased last week. The molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated strongly today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, leading to an expected decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. The ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals dropped significantly. Recently, the prospects of Fed easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals. However, the risks have been accumulating due to excessive gains driven by funds. Domestic and foreign exchanges have successively adjusted margins and trading restrictions. The short - term market volatility is high, and participation should be cautious. The platinum fundamentals continue to be in short supply, and the medium - term upward logic remains intact. There is a possibility that long - position funds may cover positions on dips. The recent IV has increased, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling PUT options [1] Summary According to Related Events - Trump is considering suing Powell for incompetence and may fire him. He also stated that if Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles, he supports a strike on Iran; if Iran develops nuclear weapons, he supports a rapid strike on Iran [2] - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation: - Russia claims that 91 Ukrainian drones attacked Putin's residence, while Ukraine denies it. - Zelensky requested a 50 - year security guarantee from Trump, and the issues of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and territory remain unresolved in the 20 - point plan. - The Kremlin says there is no discussion about a call between Putin and Zelensky currently, but a call between Putin and Trump is expected to take place soon. - The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces says Russian troops are successfully advancing into the Ukrainian military's defense circle, and the advancement speed in December was the fastest in nearly a year. - Putin instructed to continue the work of establishing a security zone in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, aiming to complete it in 2026, and said it is necessary to continue actions to gain control of Zaporizhzhia city [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals shows different characteristics in various sub - sectors, with some showing strong trends and others facing uncertainties. Each metal's market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policy [1][2][5] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions and recovered half of its decline during the session. The domestic spot copper was reported at 97,620 yuan, and the discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong converged to 240 yuan and 185 yuan respectively. The refined - scrap spread was about 3,500 yuan. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to smelter production schedules and social inventory changes [1] Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China widened to - 200 yuan, - 410 yuan, and - 285 yuan respectively. The trend of non - ferrous and precious metals is highly consistent recently, and the fundamental driving force in the aluminum market is insufficient. The upward - trending and volatile pattern of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, and long positions should be held based on the 40 - day moving average. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal performance of the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, and the price difference is maintained at around 1,000 yuan. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and costs may decline as bauxite prices fall. There is still profit in cash - cost accounting. In the short term, the decline of the alumina spot price is slowing down as it approaches the level that triggers production cuts, but it will take large - scale production cuts for prices to stabilize in the medium term. The maintenance of primary aluminum delivery - brand smelters continues, and the SMM aluminum social inventory is less than 20,000 tons, supporting the upward movement of the market. However, battery companies are conducting year - end inventory checks and have suspended spot purchases for 3 - 7 days, so Shanghai aluminum faces obvious pressure at around 17,500 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum price is stronger than the overseas price, and the spot import window is open. Affected by the influx of low - priced overseas aluminum ingots, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom around the cost level, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2][3] Zinc - The TC is at a low level, smelter maintenance continues, and the import window is closed, so the pressure on the zinc supply side is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook for January is moderately optimistic, and there are high expectations for a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are hopes for the return of national subsidies, and downstream demand for pre - Spring Festival stockpiling still exists, so consumption may not decline in the off - season. However, the real estate sector is still a drag, restricting the upward space of Shanghai zinc. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel price has risen again, and market trading is active. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association has reduced the nickel ore quota and will revise the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Near the end of the year, downstream purchasing willingness has weakened, and the continuous high spot premium has reduced the willingness of traders to hoard goods, so spot trading is rather sluggish. In the stainless - steel market, the recovery of the nickel - iron price has pushed up costs, but overall profits have recovered, and the previous stainless - steel production cuts have had limited impact. Social inventories have decreased, and downstream purchasing willingness is reflected in increased inquiries. The high - grade nickel - iron is quoted at 912 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price rebound is being transmitted. In the short term, the market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 30,000 tons to 892,000 tons. Due to policy disturbances in the nickel market, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5] Tin - The weighted position of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the spot tin price has been lowered by 20,000 yuan to 311,500 yuan. Wait for this week's social inventory data and track changes in holding enterprises. There are no new geopolitical news recently. Pay attention to the possible mining conference around the New Year. With high volatility, it is recommended to hold the 350,000 yuan sell - call option again and observe the adjustment range [5] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price opened low and closed high, with active market trading but large differences. Some holders' previous goods have been pre - ordered, and there are frequent inquiries. However, the mid - and downstream's acceptance of high prices is limited, and they have sufficient pre - Spring Festival stockpiles, so they are cautious about high prices. Overall market trading is rather light. The total market inventory has decreased by 700 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 1,600 tons to 40,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 1,200 tons to 52,000 tons. The inventory in the mid - stream is relatively high, providing some support to the spot market. The latest Australian ore price is 1,565 US dollars, and the ore - end price remains strong. Technically, the lithium price has entered a trend - halting stage, and risk prevention should be noted [6] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to decline slightly. The spot price increased slightly, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was reported at 52,500 yuan/ton. The final output of downstream silicon wafers in December was unexpectedly revised down, so the production schedule for January may be slightly increased. However, the production start - up rate in the battery cell segment is expected to continue to decline in January. The polysilicon factory inventory is at a high level, and inventory is maintained. With weak real - world demand and strengthened pre - holiday trading supervision, the polysilicon futures market is mainly in a correction, but the policy expectation of "anti - internal support" still provides emotional support. The overall trend is expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [6] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher. The overall operating rate in the northwest main production area last week had limited fluctuations. Although there were news of production cuts during the day, the certainty of implementation remains uncertain. The demand side continues to be under pressure. The organic silicon sector is supported by joint emission - reduction factors, and it is expected that the decline in the industrial silicon procurement demand in January will narrow. The demand from the polysilicon end may weaken marginally again. The upward momentum of the futures market in the future depends on the implementation rhythm of production - cut expectations. Coupled with the continued marginal weakening of the demand side, the upward momentum will gradually decline, and the trend is likely to shift from a relatively strong oscillation to a consolidation pattern [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market: LME was absent during Christmas, while domestic Shanghai copper increased positions to a record level, with the price reaching a maximum of 102,000 yuan, and LME copper jumped to a maximum of 12,900 dollars after opening. The high price may face adjustment pressure but could also benefit from raw material shortages and other factors. The target price is adjusted upwards, with LME copper at about 13,100 dollars and Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [1]. - Domestic Supply - Demand: The SMM spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong widened, and the social inventory increased. High copper prices affected the pre - Spring Festival start - up of copper - related intermediate products, but overseas price differences mitigated the impact of the domestic off - season [1]. - Overseas: Congo (Kinshasa) suspended the processing of artisanal copper and cobalt mines, and waiting for overseas investment banks to update the 2026 copper target price [1]. - Strategy: Observe or try an option combination of selling call options at an exercise price of 104,000 yuan and buying put options at 98,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Industry: Policy guidance on alumina and copper smelting industries was issued, but it will take time to implement. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is slowly increasing, while the supply of alumina is in surplus and needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize [1]. - Demand: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 60.8%, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year [1]. - Inventory and Spot: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and spot discounts widened. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods remained stable [1]. - Trend: Shanghai aluminum follows the sector's fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bulls can participate based on the MA40 daily line [1]. Zinc - Market: The external market was in high - level shock last week, and Shanghai zinc repeatedly tested 23,000 yuan. The supply is tight, but the end - of - year consumption is weak [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME inventory increased, and the squeeze - out atmosphere declined. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased, and the zinc concentrate import window opened. The supply - side pressure decreased, and there is strong support at around 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc [1]. - Consumption: After the zinc price fell slightly last week, downstream restocking increased, and the start - up rate rebounded. The market is not pessimistic about January's zinc consumption [1]. - Trend: With strong cost support, reduced supply - side pressure, and resilient consumption expectations, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose 4% last week but encountered resistance at around 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the spot import window opened. The supply of primary and secondary lead has different situations, and the overall supply tension has not been alleviated [1]. - Consumption: Most battery enterprises stopped purchasing raw lead ingots at the end of the year, and the spot trading was light [1]. - Trend: Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Futures: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures had active trading after rising [1]. - Macro and Demand: The 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia decreased significantly, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened at the end of the year. The profit of stainless steel was repaired, and the social inventory decreased [1]. - Spot and Supply: The premiums of different nickel products varied, and the upstream prices began to rebound. The inventories of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel all decreased [1]. - Strategy: Wait for the end of market disturbances and mainly observe in the short term [1]. Tin - Market: The tin market fluctuated at a high level last week, and the market sentiment followed silver and copper prices [1]. - Supply: There is a lack of new information on the situation in eastern Congo (Kinshasa), and attention should be paid to the mining conference in Wa State around the New Year [1]. - Consumption: High tin prices suppressed consumption, and the domestic social inventory increased [1]. - Trend: High - level risks are emphasized. It is recommended to participate in selling out - of - the - money call options with an exercise price of 350,000 yuan and pay attention to the callback range [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The lithium carbonate futures rose sharply last week and then tumbled on Monday [1]. - Spot: The spot price of Shanghai electric carbon strengthened, but the market trading was light. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited [1]. - Macro and Demand: The demand maintained strong resilience, but the downstream demand decreased slightly this month [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased, and the ore price was strong [1]. - Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price limit - down on Monday, entering the trend - stopping stage, and risk prevention should be noted [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward, driven by the expected end - of - month production cuts and the demand for price support at low prices [1]. - Cost: The price of silicon coal, the core raw material, remained stable [1]. - Supply - Demand: The weekly supply decreased slightly, and the start - up rates in major production areas declined. The production of polysilicon and the start - up rate of organic silicon DMC have different situations [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory in major areas increased slightly [1]. - Trend: The demand still has pressure, but the decline has narrowed. The futures price may remain firm, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price rose and then fell last week, with policy support but also affected by regulatory strengthening and the approaching holiday. The spot price increased slightly [1]. - Supply - Demand: The supply increased slightly, and the demand was affected by rising auxiliary material costs. The price increase has not led to actual transactions [1]. - Inventory: The manufacturer's inventory increased [1]. - Trend: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game, and the futures price will probably fluctuate at a high level. Risk control should be noted [1].

市场主流观点汇总 2025/12/30 报告说明 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/12/26 | | 2025/12/22 | 至 | 2025/12/26 | | | 白银 | 18319.00 | 白银 | | | 19.14% | | | PTA | 5280.00 | PTA | 8.15% | | | | | 铜 | 98720.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group - Date: December 30, 2025 - Focus: Colored Metals Sector Cross-Sectional Momentum Reversal [2] 2. Core View - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities has changed little this week. The factor intensity of the colored metals and precious metals sectors has slightly declined, while that of the agricultural products sector has slightly increased. Currently, the cross-sectionally stronger sectors are colored metals and black metals, and the weaker one is agricultural products [3]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors have different trends in different periods, and the comprehensive signals vary among different commodities [5][10][13][15]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Commodity Sector Analysis - **Colored Metals**: The short - term momentum of the colored metals sector continues to rise, with a certain reversal in the term structure. Copper and alumina are weak in the cross - section. The time - series momentum of gold rises slightly, and the silver position shows a marginal decline [3]. - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum of the black metals sector shows a marginal recovery, the cross - sectional differentiation narrows, and the positions of coking coal and coke remain high [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The short - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemicals sector recovers, and soda ash is in the cross - sectionally short end [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The cross - sectional differentiation of oilseeds and meals narrows, the overall time - series momentum recovers, but the position does not change significantly [3]. 3.2 Factor Performance and Strategy Net Worth - **Factor Performance Table 1**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.02 | 0.02 | | Demand | - 0.03 | - 0.31 | | Inventory | 0.05 | 0.51 | | Spread | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | 0.04 | 0.05 | [4] - **Strategy Net Worth 1**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side turns neutral, the demand side is long, the inventory side is long but with weakened intensity, and the spread side is neutral [5]. - **Factor Performance Table 2**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Pinduoduo | 0.00 | 0.79 | | Demand | 0.00 | 1.12 | | Inventory | 0.03 | - 0.49 | | Spread | - 0.03 | 0.25 | | Profit | - 0.40 | 1.62 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.26 | 0.79 | [8] - **Strategy Net Worth 2**: Last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.03%, the spread factor weakened by 0.03%, the profit factor decreased by 0.40%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. The supply side turns long, the demand side is long, the inventory side continues to be long, and the profit side continues to be short [15]. - **Factor Performance Table 3**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Singh | 0.00 | - 0.37 | | Inventory | 0.00 | 0.08 | | Spread | - 0.09 | - 0.09 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.04 | - 0.09 | [10] - **Strategy Net Worth 3**: Last week, the spread factor declined. The comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal turns long [10]. - **Factor Performance Table 4 (Iron Ore)**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | - 0.22 | 0.55 | | Demand | - 1.54 | - 1.12 | | Inventory | 1.47 | 0.77 | | Spread | 1.76 | 1.02 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | 0.27 | 0.59 | [13] - **Strategy Net Worth 4 (Iron Ore)**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the demand factor weakened by 1.54%, the inventory factor increased by 1.47%, the spread factor strengthened by 1.02%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.27%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns from long to short. The supply side turns long but the signal remains neutral, the demand side's long feedback continues to weaken and the signal remains neutral, the inventory side turns long and the signal remains neutral, and the spread side's signal turns long [13]. - **Factor Performance Table 5 (Aluminum)**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.09 | | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.04 | - 0.09 | [13] - **Strategy Net Worth 5 (Aluminum)**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.09%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal turns long. The supply side turns long, the demand side's long feedback continues to weaken, the inventory side turns long, and the spread side's signal turns long [13] 3.3 Sector Momentum and Other Indicators | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | 0.21 | - 0.29 | - 0.85 | 1.25 | | Colored Metals | 0.06 | 0.93 | - 2.2 | - 0.64 | | Energy and Chemicals | 0.37 | 0.57 | - 0.02 | 0.16 | | Agricultural Products | - 0.45 | 0.69 | 0.93 | 1.37 | | Stock Index | 0.31 | - 0.1 | - 0.32 | 0.48 | | Other | 0 | | | 0.05 | [6]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月30日 (原油) 周一原油有所反弹，因周末美乌会晤关键问题未解决。乌克兰28日深夜至29日凌晨袭击俄总统普京 位于俄西北部诺夫哥罗德州的官邸,俄方称将予以还击。市场预期短期难以停火,冲突持续将制约 俄原油生产与出口能力。沙特在也门的空袭让供应受干扰的消息持续发酵。她缘冲突消息不断，为 油价带来阶段性地缘溢价。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属大幅回落。近期美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑责金属强势，但资金推动下涨幅过大 风险不断积累，国内外交易所陆续调整保证金和交易限制，短期市场波动率高，谨慎参与。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜减仓跌至9.6万，整体持仓仍高。跨年时段单边交易以加速度兑现2026年尤其一季度铜精 矿供应紧俏等利多因素。国内沪粤现货贴水幅度扩至330、235元/吨，SMM社库增至21.48万吨。持 有执行价10.4万卖看涨与9.8万买看跌期权组合。 (铝) 原生铅交割品牌炼厂检修延续，SMM铝社库不足2万吨，支撑盘面上行，但电池企业年底盘库，暂停 现货采购3-7天，沪铝于1.75万元/吨附近感受到明显压力。铝价内强外弱，现货进口利润48 ...