国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 :销售压力仍存，价格震荡向下 lling - 国投期货 2025年苹果去库较快，库存偏低 苹果主力合约收盘价 · 2025年苹果期价震荡上行。年初价格有所回落, 最低跌至6602点，随后价格一路上行，最高上 涨至9796点，涨幅为48.38%。 · 24/25季度苹果去库进度较快。销售初期，果农 销售积极性较高，以顺价走货为主，冷库出货 较为顺畅。2023、2024年苹果价格持续下跌， 市场情绪较为悲观，看空情绪较强。2024年晚 熟富士下树后，虽然库存同比下降，但是大多 数苹果从业者依然持看空的态度。 因此，在销 售初期，果农和贸易商的出货意愿较高，以顺 价走货为主, 冷库出库较快。 ●苹果主力合约收盘价 10.000 9.500 9.000 8.500 8 000 7 500 7 000 -28 2025-4-15 2025-6-3 2025-7-16 2025-8-28 2025-10-20 2025-12-2 数据来源: Wind 】》 | 苹果主力合约收盘价 · 销售初期，甘肃苹果价格同比下降较多，而苹 果质量较好，甘肃货源的性价比较高，出货较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the domestic log price in New Zealand bottomed out and rebounded, while the export log price first rose and then fell. The international market demand is poor, and the New Zealand log industry is still in a depression cycle. The domestic coniferous log market in China shows the characteristics of "weak peak season and strong off - season", with overall weak supply and demand, and the log price is in a downward cycle with limited rebound height [6][7][18]. - It is expected that in 2026, the log production in New Zealand will remain high, but the export volume to China may decrease year - on - year. The domestic log market in China will still be in a low - inventory balance stage, with the inventory and price moving in the opposite direction. The short - term log price may rebound, but the medium - and long - term price is still under downward pressure [26][30][127]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 New Zealand Log Price - **Domestic Log Price**: In 2024, the domestic log price in New Zealand dropped to the lowest in the past five years, at 129 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter. In 2025, it rebounded from 129 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the first quarter to 135 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter, with a growth rate of 4.65%. In the second and third quarters, the price fluctuated slightly around 134 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter [6]. - **Export Log Price**: In 2025, the export log price in New Zealand first rose to 154 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the first quarter and then fell to 132 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the second and third quarters, with a decline of 14.28% [7][14]. 3.2 New Zealand Log Export - **Export Volume**: From January to September 2025, New Zealand exported a total of 15.7 million cubic meters of logs, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Among them, the export volume to China was 14.16 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.88%. The export volume to China increased significantly in the second and third quarters, with year - on - year growth rates of 11.7% and 6.7% respectively [26]. - **Relationship between Export Volume to China and Price**: There is a strong positive relationship between the export volume of New Zealand logs to China and the export price. Historically, the export price is a leading indicator of the year - on - year growth rate of the export volume to China. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year export volume of New Zealand logs to China will decline [30]. 3.3 New Zealand Log Inventory - **Sawmill Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the domestic sawmill inventory in New Zealand was 543,000 cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.05%. Since 2020, the sawmill inventory has entered a stocking cycle, and since 2023, it has entered a destocking cycle [39]. 3.4 New Zealand Log Supply Forecast - In the short term, factors such as log price, freight, and exchange rate affect the profit of log harvesting and the willingness of planters to cut logs. In the long term, the log supply is related to the number of newly planted trees, cutting volume, and age structure. It is expected that in 2026, the log production in New Zealand will remain high, and after 2027, it will start to decline, reaching 25 million cubic meters in 2034 and then gradually rising to about 32 million cubic meters [42][43][52]. 3.5 Domestic Coniferous Log Spot Market in China - **Price Trend**: In 2025, the log futures price fluctuated downward. The "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season demand was lower than expected, and the spot price continued to fall due to high inventory pressure. In the third quarter, the price rebounded slightly, but the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was also disappointing, and the price returned to the previous low [77][82]. - **Import and Inventory**: From January to November 2025, China imported a total of 22.1533 million cubic meters of coniferous logs, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07%. The inventory was still at a low level. In the first quarter, it was at a historical low. In the second quarter, the destocking progress was slow, and the inventory increased year - on - year. In the third quarter, the inventory decreased year - on - year, but after October, it increased year - on - year due to high arrival volume [87][88]. - **Demand Characteristics**: In 2025, the domestic log demand showed the characteristics of "weak peak season and strong off - season". The peak daily average outbound volume during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" was only 71,600 cubic meters, lower than that in 2023 and 2024. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was also lower than expected. However, the demand in the off - season from May to August was relatively strong, with the daily average outbound volume remaining around 60,000 cubic meters [95][100]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - The real estate market is still in a downturn. In 2025, the year - on - year cumulative decline in the newly started area of housing increased, indicating weak downstream demand. Although the year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing has been narrowing, the real estate development investment has not improved significantly [104][107]. 3.7 Log Inventory and Price Cycle - From 2022 to 2023, the inventory and price showed a positive relationship because the industry was in an active destocking cycle with over - supply and weak demand. In 2024, the market entered a new balance stage, and the inventory and price returned to a negative relationship. In 2025, the market was still in a low - inventory balance stage, and the inventory and price should continue to move in the opposite direction [115][121].

Oil Market - The latest EIA weekly data shows an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, indicating significant inventory pressure and a supply surplus that limits the short-term upward potential of oil prices [1] - Oil prices initially rebounded to nearly $67 per barrel due to concerns over US-Iran tensions, but retreated after President Trump indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation in Iran [1] - The global crude oil supply-demand structure for Q1 2026 suggests that unless conflicts escalate, the short-term upside for oil prices is expected to be limited [1] Precious Metals - The US reported a 3% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, the highest since July, and retail sales rose by 0.6%, slightly above expectations, indicating a strong economic backdrop for precious metals [2] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support the overall strength of precious metals [2] Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical risks and the impact of tariffs on trade [3] - The current spot premium for copper has narrowed to $44, indicating market adjustments as traders await inventory updates [3] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing high volatility, with prices testing historical highs but facing challenges from speculative trading and high inventory levels [4] - The profit margin for aluminum production remains above 8000 yuan per ton, prompting producers to consider hedging strategies [4] Zinc Market - The zinc market is witnessing increased capital inflow, leading to heightened bullish sentiment, although high prices are negatively impacting consumption [7] - Zinc prices have recovered all losses from 2025, but there is growing pressure for a price correction, with a focus on support levels around 23,000 yuan per ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing active trading, with upstream lithium salt producers shifting sales strategies towards more spot sales [11] - Total market inventory has increased by 300 tons to 110,000 tons, while downstream inventory has decreased, indicating a mixed supply-demand dynamic [11] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with production cuts in northern regions and reduced demand from the organic silicon sector [12] - Current prices for industrial silicon are stable, but the market outlook remains cautious due to ongoing production adjustments [12] Steel Market - The steel market is showing slight price increases, but demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to cautious market sentiment [14] - Steel production is gradually recovering, but overall demand from downstream industries continues to decline [14] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with increased domestic port inventories and a seasonal decline in demand [15] - The market sentiment is mixed, with structural imbalances persisting and expectations for continued price volatility [15] Fertilizer Market - The urea market is seeing strong price increases driven by improved factory orders and seasonal demand ahead of spring [23] - The methanol market is also showing strength due to geopolitical tensions, although signs of weakening demand are emerging [24] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure from high import volumes and increased domestic processing rates, with expectations for continued weak price movements [35] - The corn market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with low overall inventory levels and increased demand from downstream users as the Spring Festival approaches [39] Livestock Market - The live pig market is seeing upward price movements, with expectations for continued pressure on supply as the Spring Festival approaches [40] - The egg market is showing signs of strength due to reduced supply and increased demand ahead of the holiday season [41]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices' short - term upward space is limited due to supply surplus and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. - Precious metals remain strong under the influence of high US economic data and the tense Iran situation [2]. - Base metals show various trends affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [3][4][5]. Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows a large increase in US commercial crude inventories. Geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, and supply surplus restricts price increases [1]. - **Precious Metals**: High US economic data and the tense Iran situation support the strength of precious metals [2]. - **Copper**: The market focuses on geopolitical risks and the 105,000 - level of Shanghai copper's volume and position [3]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is at a high level, with a divergence between the market and fundamentals. High - profit aluminum plants can consider selling hedging [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity and cost - increasing pressure in some areas [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina market is in surplus, with falling costs and a bearish outlook on the spot [6]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has high capital inflow, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption, and the price may回调 [7]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead is affected by factors such as inventory pressure, production changes, and cost increases, with a price range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is active, with price rebounds in the upstream. Stainless steel has increased production expectations, and short - term trading is policy - and sentiment - driven [9]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin is rising rapidly, mainly driven by domestic trading and sentiment. High prices suppress demand, and supply is stable [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is active, with changes in the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants. The total inventory increases, and the price is strong but uncertain [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market has weak supply and demand, with a stalemate in spot prices and a volatile futures market [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a range - bound state, with a downward - adjusted production forecast and a shift in the trading logic [13]. Group 2: Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The ferrous metals and building materials markets are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, seasonal factors, and policy expectations, showing different trends [14][15][16]. Summary by Category - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel market is in a range - bound state, with weak domestic demand and high exports. The market is cautious, and the price may fluctuate in a range [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile, with a risk of high - level fluctuations [15]. - **Coke**: The price is in a range - bound state, with a slight increase in production and unchanged inventory. The market expects a strong - side fluctuation [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is in a range - bound state, with an increase in total inventory. The market expects a strong - side fluctuation [17]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price rebounds, with an increase in manganese ore prices and a decrease in silicon manganese production and inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is relatively strong, with a decrease in supply and inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [19]. Group 3: Shipping and Energy - Related Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The shipping and energy - related product markets are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes, showing complex trends [20][21][22]. Summary by Category - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Airlines are reducing prices to compete for cargo, and the "rush - shipping" effect is uncertain. The 04 - contract valuation is driven by market sentiment [20]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market may be supported by feed demand in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak supply - demand situation [21]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of the Iran situation on asphalt is limited, and the upward driving force is weak after the price has factored in the supply reduction expectation [22]. Group 4: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The chemical product markets are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes, showing different trends [23][24][25]. Summary by Category - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly, with good factory sales and increasing demand. The market is expected to be strong - side volatile [23]. - **Methanol**: The futures price is strong due to geopolitical conflicts, but the demand is weakening, and the port de - stocking speed may slow down [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is rising, with sufficient supply and high port inventory. The medium - and long - term de - stocking is difficult [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a decrease in port inventory and good export markets [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The price is supported by factors such as rising oil prices, supply reduction, and stable demand [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may have a chance for month - spread arbitrage in the short term and is expected to reduce capacity in the long term. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the integrated profit may be compressed [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price is in a range - bound state, with weak short - term upward driving force for PX and the main driving force for PTA coming from raw materials [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas, and the demand is weak. The price may be volatile in the short term and is under long - term pressure [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber demand is weakening, and bottle - grade resin has a strong price. The absolute prices follow raw materials [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product markets are affected by factors such as weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, showing different trends [32][33][34]. Summary by Category - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are in a weak - side fluctuation, and domestic soybean imports are at a record high. The price of soybean meal may follow the weak trend of US soybeans [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price of RIN in the US is rising, which is beneficial to soybean oil. Palm oil is affected by policies in Indonesia. The overall market is expected to be range - bound [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price is under pressure due to the US agricultural report and the expectation of China - Canada relations. It may rebound if the relations do not improve [37]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price is in a callback, with tight supply at the grassroots level and cautious demand [38]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are in a wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as policy - grain release and inventory [39]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is rising, but the spot price is stable. The pig price may have a low point in the first half of next year [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is weak. The egg price is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, and a long - near and short - far strategy is recommended [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is positive, and the Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level oscillation. The demand is stable in the off - season, and the price may be adjusted [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar price may have limited rebound due to the expected increase in production [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is rising, and the spot market has increased cold - storage sales. The high price and poor quality may affect the de - stocking speed [44]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level, with a decrease in supply and demand. The low inventory provides some support [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price is stable, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. The price increase is limited [46]. Group 6: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The financial product markets are affected by factors such as regulatory policies, market sentiment, and economic data, showing different trends [47][48]. Summary by Category - **Stock Index**: A - shares are in a high - level oscillation, and the increase in the margin ratio for margin trading cools down the sentiment. The equity market in the Greater China region is expected to be strong - side volatile [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price shows a differentiated trend, and the strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. Policy announcements may affect the market sentiment [48].

Report Overview - This report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics [2]. Market Data Commodity Market - From January 5 to January 9, 2026, silver had the highest weekly increase of 9.70% among commodities, followed by coking coal at 7.22%, and aluminum at 6.13%. Polycrystalline silicon had the largest decline of -11.43% [3]. A-share Market - During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 7.92%, the SSE 50 rose 3.40%, and the SHS 300 rose 2.79% [3]. Overseas Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 rose 3.18%, the French CAC 40 rose 2.61%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.35% [3]. Bond Market - The yield of the 2-year Chinese Treasury bond increased by 8.18 bp, the 5-year by 3 bp, and the 10-year by 2.91 bp [3]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.88%, the US dollar central parity rate fell -0.23%, and the euro against the US dollar fell -0.95% [3]. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Among 7 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 1 sees a sideways trend. Bullish factors include rising overseas stocks, improved CPI and PPI, policy support, increasing margin trading, and the resonance of fundamental improvement and liquidity easing. Bearish factors include high valuations, potential policy implementation shortfalls, concentrated short - term bullish sentiment, and possible non - interest - rate cuts by the Fed [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are loose funds, increased entry of institutional investors, and unimproved inflation structure. Bearish factors include concerns about long - term bond supply, strong stock market performance, and expectations of re - inflation trading [4]. Energy Sector - Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the ongoing Middle East conflict, reduced Venezuelan exports, strong US economic data, and geopolitical support for oil prices. Bearish factors are the expected global oil supply surplus in 2026, non - OPEC production expansion, weak winter demand, and limited fundamental improvement [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are strong spot prices, potential seasonal demand improvement, and positive market sentiment. Bearish factors are the expected Brazilian soybean harvest, high domestic inventories, sufficient imports, high feed enterprise inventories, and the resumption of soybean auctions [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are low copper concentrate processing fees, mine strikes in Chile, strong LME spot and high cancelled warrants, government subsidies, and emerging industry demand. Bearish factors are domestic inventory pressure, weak downstream transactions, high - price suppression of consumption, and a decrease in speculative net long positions [6]. Chemical Industry Sector Glass - Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are active mid - stream restocking, reduced daily melting volume, improved spot sales due to rising futures prices, and expected production cuts in Hubei. Bearish factors are high industry inventory, low downstream acceptance of price increases, and weak end - of - year demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 3 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, seasonal demand, and technical upward trends. Bearish factors are margin adjustments, potential index rebalancing selling, and a short - term strong US dollar [7]. Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 see a sideways trend. Bullish factors are stable and rising pig iron production, rising Mongolian coal import prices, pre - holiday steel mill restocking, and expected future supply reduction. Bearish factors are increased Mongolian coal imports, rising domestic coal mine production, and weak downstream demand [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Re bar: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: One red star, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking coal: One red star with one white star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Silicomanganese: Two red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market condition is showing on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: Three red stars, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has little supply - demand contradiction, with cautious market sentiment, and the trading floor is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to have a strong - side fluctuating trend, considering the supply situation and market policy expectations [4][6] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Grouped by Commodity Steel - The steel futures trading floor continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the short - term trading floor continuing the range - bound pattern [2] - The demand for steel in the downstream industries is weak, but the steel exports in December reached a new high [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment decreased seasonally, while the domestic arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the short - term resumption of production is difficult. The steel mills' import ore inventory is still low, and there is still an expectation for winter storage replenishment [3] Coke - The coke trading price increased sporadically, with general coking profit and a slight increase in daily production [4] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is at an off - season level, with the steel mills still having a strong intention to suppress prices [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal production decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions continued to improve, with the terminal inventory increasing slightly [6] - The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased sharply [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The manganese ore spot price increased, and there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory [7] - The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the silicomanganese weekly production and inventory decreased slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rebounded after reaching the bottom. Affected by relevant policies, the price is relatively strong [8] - The iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, and the export demand decreased, but the overall demand is still resilient [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is influenced by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. Different chemical products show different price trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract opened high and went low, touching the 5 - day moving average. International oil prices are rising, and there is an expected reduction in olefin supply, with good downstream demand [2] - Plastic futures: The main contract closed up in a volatile manner. Cost - end support is strengthening, some spot is tight, and downstream factories replenish stocks as needed [2] - Polypropylene futures: The main contract closed up in a volatile manner. The number of maintenance devices has increased, supply has shrunk, and downstream demand is stable due to pre - holiday order - making [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Spot and futures prices are rising. Cost - end support is obvious due to geopolitical factors, but there is a large inventory and high resistance to destocking in the long - term [3] - Styrene: The main futures contract was sorted out narrowly. Cost - end support is strong, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and exports are improving [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: They continued to fluctuate. The short - term upward drive of PX is weak, but the medium - term outlook is positive. PTA's processing margin has moderately recovered [5] - Ethylene glycol: New domestic devices are about to be put into operation, and overseas devices are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is pressure in the short - term, but there may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [5] - Short fiber: Enterprise inventory is low, but downstream orders are weak. Demand will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip: The operating rate has decreased, inventory has declined, and prices are firm. However, over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The futures market is strong. Overseas device operating rates are low, and port inventory is decreasing. But there are concerns about weakening demand [6] - Urea: The futures market rose strongly. Demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the market sentiment is positive. The market is expected to be strong in the spring [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: It showed a strong and volatile trend. The operating rate has increased, but demand is weak. There may be arbitrage opportunities in the short - term, and the price is expected to rise in 2026 [7] - Caustic soda: It is operating weakly. The chlorine market is good, but the industry is generally in the red. There is pressure from inventory accumulation [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: It showed a strong and volatile trend. Supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8] - Glass: It is operating weakly. Production capacity is being compressed, demand is insufficient, but there may be long - term low - buying opportunities after the decline [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Sugar: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] - Apple: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] - Timber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - 20 - rubber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Natural rubber: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Bullish (represented by three stars) [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities, including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber. It provides market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each commodity and suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for investment operations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly increased, and the spot trading of cotton was average with a decrease in low - basis spot. As of the end of December, the national commercial inventory of cotton was 5.7847 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.00996 million tons. As of January 8th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 6.969 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.0633 million tons. The policy of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang has been implemented, but the actual reduction is still uncertain. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials remains resilient, but downstream orders are average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the international market, the production data in the first half of December in the central - southern region of Brazil was neutral. The current crushing season is coming to an end, with a seasonal decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. The market's focus has shifted to the production forecast of the next season. Meteorological models show that the rainfall in the main Brazilian producing areas in the first quarter may be lower than the historical average. The sugar - alcohol ratio has significantly adjusted, and the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 season is expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The sales data was on the positive side, but the significant decline in sales was due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress has been slow. If the production does not increase later, the futures price will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rise. In Gansu, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was high, and the trading was good. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price remained stable. With the start of the Spring Festival stocking, merchants mainly packed their own supplies for the market, and the purchase of farmers' apples was less. Some merchants were looking for high - quality apples, but such supplies were scarce, and the trading volume was average. As of January 8th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 0.2873 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.37%. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. The quality of apples this year is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the hoarding sentiment of traders and farmers is strong, which may affect the destocking speed. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all increased, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also rose. The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - reducing period, with the Chinese producing areas fully stopped and the Vietnamese producing areas gradually stopping production. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, while the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise. In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with passenger cars being weak and commercial vehicles being strong. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate continued to decline. The finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises decreased for all - steel tires and continued to rise for semi - steel tires. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 0.5682 million tons, and the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber increased to 15,100 tons last week, while the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 41,300 tons. In December 2025, China's import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was about 0.9532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.6%. China's automobile export volume was 994,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 73.2% and a month - on - month increase of 21.4%, while the import volume was 30,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.4%. Overall, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is increasing, cost support is strong, the government has reduced leverage, and market sentiment is unstable. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures generally remained stable. Due to weak downstream demand, the short - term upward potential of pulp is limited. The spot price of softwood pulp is 5,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,350 yuan/ton; the price of hardwood pulp "Golden Fish" is 4,730 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 million tons, a cumulative increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, with inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp provides some support for softwood pulp, and the overseas offers for both softwood and hardwood pulp have been raised recently. Paper mills purchase pulp mainly for rigid demand, and the increase in the price of base paper is relatively weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the price increase of downstream base paper. It is advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The overseas offer has been lowered, and the domestic spot price remains weak, with a short - term decrease in the arrival volume. As of January 9th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%. Demand has decreased in the off - season but is still relatively high on a week - on - week basis. As of January 9th, the total log inventory at national ports was 2.69 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The total national log inventory is relatively low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for the price. It is advisable to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Platinum: ★☆☆, implying a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Palladium: ★☆★, showing a relatively stronger bullish bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall precious metals market remains prone to rising and difficult to fall. Gold and silver continue their breakthrough trends, while the volatility of platinum and palladium has decreased, with the potential to challenge previous highs [1] - The 12 - month unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US remained flat at 2.7% in December, in line with expectations, and the core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than expected. Trump criticized Powell again, calling for significant interest rate cuts [1] - The situation in Iran is highly tense. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials. The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, and Vance is scheduled to meet with the national security team this morning to formulate a strategy against Iran [1][2] - The "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said that the December CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait - and - see attitude. To resume interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see new evidence of deteriorating labor market conditions or weakening price pressures [2] - In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week according to the ADP weekly employment report [2] 3. Summaries by Related Content Macroeconomic Data - US December unadjusted CPI annual rate remained flat at 2.7%, in line with expectations; core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than expected [1] - In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week [2] Fed's Attitude - The 12 - month CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait - and - see attitude. To resume interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see new evidence of deteriorating labor market conditions or weakening price pressures, which may require at least a few more months of inflation data [2] Geopolitical Situation - The situation in Iran is highly tense. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials. The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, and Vance is scheduled to meet with the national security team this morning to formulate a strategy against Iran [1][2] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals are generally prone to rising and difficult to fall. Gold and silver continue their breakthrough trends, while the volatility of platinum and palladium has decreased, with the potential to challenge previous highs. Attention is focused on US PPI and retail sales data tonight [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Alumina: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Tin: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ (Trend of rising, with clear upward trend and ongoing market development) [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, with upward driving force but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows complex trends, with different metals affected by various factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and cost [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper increase positions and fluctuate at a high level, with the market competing around 105,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was at 103,915 yuan. Futures warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 27,000 tons to 149,300 tons. Attention is on the impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on precious metals trading sentiment [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell again. Spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 80 yuan, - 240 yuan, and 60 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods widened to - 200 yuan. Short - term bullish sentiment in precious and non - ferrous metals is still strong. The fundamentals deviate to some extent, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in a state of significant surplus. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan. The spot price of alumina is under pressure, and short - selling can be considered when the basis is low [2] Zinc - Funds continue to flow into the zinc market, and the capital congestion degree further increases. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumer side, and the divergence between bulls and bears increases. The zinc price has recovered all the declines in 2025, and the callback pressure is gradually increasing. Short positions can be considered above 24,800 yuan/ton, and the support at 23,000 yuan/ton should be watched during the callback [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The inventory of pure nickel increased by 2,000 tons to 59,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 855,000 tons. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and downstream buyers can buy at low prices [6] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin hit the daily limit for the second time this week. The spot tin price adjusted to 485,500 yuan, and the warehouse receipts increased by 862 tons to 7,107 tons. High prices suppress demand, while supply remains stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the silver market rhythm, and holding short - call options until expiration can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during the session. The sales strategy of upstream brine plants is changing. The overall demand maintains strong resilience. The market inventory increased for the first week, but the downstream inventory decreased rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon maintains a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand fundamentals. The overall spot price of industrial silicon is stalemate, and the futures price follows the volatile trend [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased positions and fluctuated. The price of polysilicon M - type re - feed material is 51,000 - 58,500 yuan/ton. The trading logic of polysilicon has changed, and the market sentiment has significantly cooled down. Participation should be cautious [10]