本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | Millio | > 國發期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月08日 | | 黄金 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属先抑后杨波动较大。上周美国非农数据超预期支持美联储继续保持观望,市场放弃对7月降息押 注。市场焦点转向即将到期的美国关税政策变动,特朗普威胁对部分国家加征关税,关税暂缓期延长至8月1 日。贵金属延续震荡等待关税谈判陆续落地，截止日前或仍将反复。 ★特朗普向14国发出关税信函,8月1日起对日韩进口商品征收25%的关税，对马来西亚、南非、印尼、缅 旬、泰国等征收25%至40%的关税，任何与金砖国家反美政策结盟的国家，关税再加10%，并签署行政令将对 等关税暂缓期延长至8月1日；白 ...

| | | 有色金属周度观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货 | 研究院有色金属团队 | | 2025/7/8 | | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | | 关税消息密集，高位转跌。1）情绪：上周伦铜两次尝试冲击1万美元，但沪桐主力8.1万高位遇阻难以跟进。"大美丽"法案签署后，市场目光转 | | | | | 再转关税,特朗普向日韩及东盟国家放出一系列关税消息,并成协金砖国家关税税率,主要伙伴国也担心后续可能还要面临行业关税风险。美国劳 动力市场整体稳健。市场认为7月底美联储议息会议下调利率的概率有限，美元指数反弹。2）国内供需：消费淡季明显，SMM社库增加1.1万吨 | | | | | 至14.29万吨，SMM倾踪的各条线铜材开工率皆有不同程度下滑。除电力电网需求稳定外，家电与电机产品需求降幅明显。上半年多数时间国内 | | | 1 | 원으 | 实际铜消费强劲，也显得淡季降温更明显。加工费触底但改善不大，硫酸价格支撑国内炼厂开工。6月SMM铜产量仅环降3400吨，7月预计精铜 产出继续环增。2507合约进入交割月后减仓速度较强，市场出现 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | な女女 | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二沪铜震荡收阳，2507合约加速减仓。今日现铜79795元，上海铜升水缩至85元，广东贴水扩至50元。晚间继 续关注特朗普关 ...

昨日国际油价低开高走，布伦特09合约涨1.59%。我们认为0PEC+的快速增产政策对三季度的油价 冲击暂时有限，一方面考虑到部分产油国的实际产量已远高于目标产量且同步存在减产补偿计划的 约束，OPEC+实际月度增产量均小于产量目标的上调幅度；另一方面，三季度为汽油、航煤需求的 季节性旺季，本轮增产在夏季尚可得到需求端较好的承接。而度过三季度旺季之后，若美国的对等 关税政策依然延续，OPEC+产量的回归将对基本面产生更直接的利空压力，在中东地缘局势保持可 控的情景下油价重心面临进一步下移。豁免期延续至8月1日的美国对等关税最终博弈结果或不高于4 月初水平，原油短期仍持三季度底部抬升、震荡偏强的判断。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏弱震荡。上周美国非农数据超预期支持美联储继续保持观望，市场放弃对7月降息押 注。市场焦点转向即将到期的美国关税政策变动,特朗普威胁对部分国家加征关税。贵金属延续震 荡等待政策落地对市场情绪的影响。 (铜) 隔夜铜价走低，美盘铜日内跌幅大，特朗普向日韩及东盟国家放出一系列对等关税消息，并威胁金 砖国家关税税率。周内继续关注2507合约减仓速度，国内消费谈季明显，SMM社库增加1.1万吨至 14 ...

6月俄罗斯发运量796.95万桶，环比减少22.43%；中东地区发运量4002.37万桶，环比下降16.4%；美国装船量 597.98万桶，环比减少5.14%；发运总量较上月减少1047.98万桶。各大区中总到港量最高的地区为东北亚，到 港量为3107.57万桶，环比小幅增加。上月中国石脑油到港量为879.9万桶，环比减少231.95万桶，其中来自中东 市场概览 地区的进口占比最高，为53.72%，其次为南亚和东北亚，其中来自南亚的货源进口占比环比有所提升，其他地 区进口量均有所减少。 | | 俄罗斯发运 | 中东发运 | 美国发运 | 东北亚-中国 | 中东-中国 | 俄罗斯-中国 | 南亚-中国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月 | 1027.39 | 4787.51 | 630.38 | 135.74 | 541.98 | 134.92 | 120.3 | | 2025年6月 | 796.95 | 4002.37 | 597.98 | 133.09 | 472.69 | 34.42 | 171.64 | | 1-6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, both global and domestic major asset classes including stocks, bonds, and commodities closed higher. Globally, stocks outperformed commodities, which in turn outperformed bonds when measured in US dollars. Domestically, the same pattern of stocks > commodities > bonds was observed. Attention should be paid to whether the US tariff policy will be upgraded as President Trump's latest remarks on tariffs may impact major asset prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities Closed Higher Weekly - The number of new non - farm jobs added in the US in June was higher than expected. On July 4, local time, Trump signed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill. The US dollar index continued to decline weekly, while stocks, bonds, and commodities closed higher. Overall, in US dollar terms, stocks > commodities > bonds [3][6]. 3.2 Global Stock Market Overview: US Stocks Led the Gains - From June 30 to July 4, market sentiment was relatively positive, but the performance of global major stock markets was divergent. Geographically, US stocks led the gains, while the Asia - Pacific region underperformed. Emerging markets performed worse than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated at a low level weekly [8]. 3.3 Global Bond Market Overview: The Yield of 10 - Year US Treasury Bonds Rose Weekly - Better - than - expected non - farm data cooled the market's expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut. The yields of medium - and long - term US Treasury bonds increased. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 6BP to 4.35% weekly. The bond market rose weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [15]. 3.4 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: The US Dollar Index Declined Weekly - From June 30 to July 4, although recent US economic and employment data remained resilient, the US dollar index still declined slightly weekly. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate closed slightly higher. The US dollar index fell 0.28% weekly [16]. 3.5 Global Commodity Market Overview: International Oil and Gold Prices Closed Higher Weekly - The expectation of traditional peak - season consumption supported the rebound of international oil prices. Due to the high uncertainty in the global economic operation, international gold prices also rebounded. Most major agricultural products rose, while non - ferrous metal prices showed mixed performance [18]. 3.6 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities All Closed Higher - From June 30 to July 4, the China Manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The China Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4%, consistent with the trend of the official manufacturing PMI. The Caixin China Services PMI in June was 50.6%. Stocks, bonds, and commodities closed higher weekly. Overall, stocks > commodities > bonds [19]. 3.7 Domestic Stock Market Overview: Most Major Broad - Based A - Share Indexes Rose - The expectation of "anti - involution" in industries increased. Most major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips performed prominently. In terms of sectors, steel and banks led the gains, while the comprehensive finance sector underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40% weekly [20]. 3.8 Domestic Bond Market Overview: The Bond Market Ran Strongly - From June 30 to July 4, the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. The overall liquidity remained stable. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [22]. 3.9 Domestic Commodity Market Overview: The Commodity Market Rebounded - The domestic commodity market closed higher weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the black sector led the gains [23]. 3.10 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to Whether the US Tariff Policy Will Be Upgraded - Overall, President Trump's latest remarks on tariffs may have an impact on major asset prices. Attention should be paid to the outcome of the US tariff negotiations [27].

| | | | VY V SDIC FUIL FUIURES | | 2025年07月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | 豆粕 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜粕 | ななな | | | 玉米 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 本周东北地区大部气温偏高，降水偏多，土壤铺情适宜。预计未来10天，华北、东北地区及西北地区东部多阵雨或雷阵雨天 气，较常年同期偏多3～6成、降雨利于补充土壤水分，对作物生长有利。政策方面短期国产大豆举行购销 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyolefins: Not provided - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyester: Not provided - Chlor - alkali: PVC (☆☆☆), Caustic Soda (☆☆☆) [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass (☆☆☆), Soda Ash (☆☆☆) [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various price and market outlooks based on supply - demand dynamics, seasonal factors, and policy influences [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Methanol - The methanol market is in a low - level adjustment. Domestic device operation is down, and traditional downstream operations in the mainland are also decreased, with production enterprises slightly increasing inventory. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, MTO device operation is continuously decreasing slightly, import demand is weak, and port inventory is slightly increasing. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to macro - aspects and Iranian shipping [2] Urea - Urea daily production has decreased significantly month - on - month but remains high year - on - year. Rainy weather has increased agricultural fertilizer demand, and it is the peak season for summer fertilizer use, leading to a decrease in production enterprise inventory. After port inspections were relaxed, port inventory has been increasing significantly. The short - term market is expected to be slightly strong, but demand will enter the off - season later [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures are hovering around the 5 - day moving average. Polyethylene supply is increasing as maintenance losses decline, and demand has limited changes. The polypropylene supply is also expected to increase slightly, and overall downstream demand is weak [4] Styrene - Styrene futures are in a narrow - range movement. The cost support is insufficient due to weak supply - demand in the traditional benzene segment and no effective inventory reduction at ports. Supply pressure is obvious, and downstream demand is weak and stable [5] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are oscillating narrowly. The industry supply - demand pattern is loosening. PTA processing spreads, basis, and monthly spreads are under pressure. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Short - fiber downstream load is decreasing, and bottle - chip enterprises are reducing production. Attention should be paid to inventory [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC is oscillating. There is an expected increase in supply in July. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are showing signs of weakening. Caustic soda is strong in the short - term due to cost drivers, but faces supply pressure in the long - term [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are down. High inventory and weak demand continue, and there is limited potential for price increases. Soda ash inventory is increasing, and the futures price is weak. Supply is expected to oscillate at a high level, and demand is decreasing [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bonds: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending July 4, the stock index continued to rise, with the steel sector leading the gains and the computer sector leading the losses. The margin trading balance increased by 18.928 billion yuan. The stock market is currently supported by loose liquidity and risk appetite, and the overall trading volume continues to recover. Attention should be paid to the change in the US dollar trend, as the stock index may face correction pressure [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator scored 5 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 8 points. For bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 8 points. In terms of the term structure, the basis in July gradually converged but remained at a relatively high level and was still affected by the dividend season, with the convergence of the discount being slow [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.85% last week, mainly due to going long on T on Wednesday and intraday long on IC on Friday. In the long - term, both the Caixin and official PMIs improved marginally, which significantly boosted IC and IM, while T declined to some extent. In the short - term, as the US dollar oscillated downward, the pressure on spreads and exchange rates decreased, and the liquidity supported both stocks and bonds, with its influence weight continuously increasing [1]. - In terms of open interest, the overall market risk appetite first rose and then fell. The signal strength of IC and IM remained high, while that of IF and IH decreased slightly compared to last week. The comprehensive signal was neutral and oscillating. For bond futures, the liquidity at the beginning of the month was still relatively loose, and the open interest factor showed a sign of marginal weakening after recovery, indicating that institutions were still waiting for the right time to allocate after adjustment. The comprehensive signal was also neutral and oscillating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores 3.1.1 Economic Momentum - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.80% to 44.97, with a historical quantile of 0.34, an index moving correlation of - 0.06, and a treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.88. The PTA operating rate in China increased by 1.80% to 79.13, with a historical quantile of 0.34, an index moving correlation of 0.01, and a treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.53. The refinery operating rate in Shandong decreased by 2.32% to 44.97, with a historical quantile of 0.01, an index moving correlation of - 0.56, and a treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.34. The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 1.05% to 63.75, with a historical quantile of 0.43, an index moving correlation of 0.15, and a treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.52. The operating rate of downstream looms for polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased by 6.98% to 58.09, with a historical quantile of 0.57, an index moving correlation of - 0.44, and a treasury bond moving correlation of 0.81. The stock index futures score was 7, and the bond futures score was 0 [2]. 3.1.2 Inflation Indicators - Multiple inflation - related indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, the coking coal index, and the price of electrolytic copper showed varying degrees of weekly changes. The stock index futures inflation score was 7, and the bond futures inflation score was 8 [3]. 3.1.3 Liquidity - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, and the US dollar index all changed last week. The stock index futures liquidity score was 5 [4]. 3.1.4 Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators such as PE, PS, and dividend yield showed different changes. The stock index futures valuation score was 10 [5]. 3.1.5 Market Sentiment - For the stock market, indicators such as margin trading balance and northbound capital inflows showed different trends. The stock index futures market sentiment score was 8. For the bond market, indicators such as the yield of 10 - year CDB bonds and the S&P 500 volatility index also showed different trends, and the bond futures market sentiment score was 8 [6][7]. 3.2 Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The goal is to use a multi - strategy model to select and allocate contracts in the financial futures market to achieve stable net value growth. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and liquidity, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. Open interest is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. 3.3 Forecast Signals and Historical Data - As of last Friday, the short - term model, open interest indicator, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were provided. The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by three independent models (0 - 1). The trading rules include principles for going long and short, signal shielding during the delivery period, stop - loss points, and capital allocation [18]. - The trading signals of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF from June 30 to July 4, 2025, were presented, along with the net value tracking data [20]. 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factors use the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into three parts: level, slope, and curvature. The model uses PCA, factor rotation, and logistic regression to construct the three - factor model, with signals divided into three categories. The trend regression model is used to filter signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In actual operation, a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 is used to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [21]. - The trading signals of the TF and T main contracts from June 30 to July 4, 2025, were provided [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]