Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a complex trend. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market conditions, presenting different price trends such as consolidation, upward or downward movement [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different medium - and short - term outlooks. Some products are expected to be strong in the medium term, while others have limited medium - term rebound space or are in a state of range - bound consolidation [3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures are weakly consolidating around the 5 - day moving average. Tight supply in Shandong has pushed up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Stable domestic supply and weakening demand have led to poor market trading [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are volatile. Although there are factors such as potential supply improvement and rising prices, high arrival expectations and weakening demand may lead to range - bound consolidation [3] - Styrene futures are consolidating at a low level. Improved supply - demand structure and repaired profits may keep the short - term state, with limited upward momentum [3] Polyester - PX is expected to be weak in the short term but strong in the medium term due to factors such as weakened demand and potential supply decline from maintenance [5] - PTA is driven by cost, with expectations of improved processing margins. Ethylene glycol has short - term price rebounds but limited medium - term upside [5] - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle chip is mainly cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's near - month contract is strong, and there are expectations of port destocking. It may be appropriate to go long unilaterally or do positive spreads on the month - to - month difference [6] - Urea prices may return to a stalemate. Although there is demand release, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC is in a volatile trend. With potential improvement in exports and cost support, it may follow cost changes [7] - Caustic soda is also volatile. High production and weak demand lead to a weak market, and attention should be paid to profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a volatile trend. Although there is destocking, the long - term supply may exceed demand. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8] - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with potential production line cold repairs and cost support [8]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.15%. Positive progress in US-Ukraine peace talks led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driver of oil prices remains. The near-term risk is whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The US retail sales month-on-month rate in September was 0.2%, lower than expected and the previous value. PPI was basically in line with expectations. There is strong uncertainty in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fluctuated greatly. The US ADP employment report showed a weak labor market. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is expected to rise above 80%. US copper exchange inventories have reached a record high. Codelco's premium for long-term refined copper contracts to East Asia is high. Pay attention to the increase in positions of Shanghai copper and the performance of the MA40 moving average after taking profits on previous long positions [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. After the price correction, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices. Demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The macro sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and the industrial contradictions are limited. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and adjusting after breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, with support around 21,100 yuan [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. Industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels, and cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. Alumina - Alumina operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The supply surplus pattern is hard to change. Before large-scale production cuts occur, alumina will mainly operate weakly [7]. Zinc - Overseas funds have a strong control over the market. LME zinc warehouse receipts increased slightly to 48,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is as high as $120.77/ton. The domestic zinc mine supply is tightening, and the TC of domestic and overseas mines has been lowered. The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong, but the domestic demand outlook is under pressure. In the short term, there is no clear directional signal, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - LME lead inventories are at a high level of 265,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month discount is $35.57/ton. The domestic fundamentals are neutral, and the trading sentiment of funds is weak. Track the dynamics of smelters and wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel cost support continues to decline. Although Shanghai nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the short - term contradiction lies in the macro level. Short on rebounds [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated at high levels. The short - term upward exploration sentiment of domestic and international tin prices remains. Short at high levels, holding short positions near 298,000 yuan [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The market total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 118,000 tons. The futures price oscillates violently at high levels, and risk control should be the priority [12]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rates of Xinjiang and Southwest production areas remained flat. The demand reduction plan of the silicone industry has a relatively limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern. In the short term, industrial silicon futures will continue to oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - The spot price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remains in the narrow range of 49,600 - 54,900 yuan/ton. The short - term futures price is affected by both the "anti - involution" sentiment and its own fundamentals and will continue to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - trading steel prices fell. The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to suffer losses. The supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm recently, and the futures price has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the weak demand restricts the upside space [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore overnight futures oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is in a seasonal decline trend. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday price oscillated. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price may oscillate weakly [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday price oscillated weakly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price may oscillate weakly [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and chemical coke prices. The silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downwards [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and blue carbon prices. The overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of silicon iron remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The possibility of resuming navigation in the Red Sea is increasing. Once new ships resume navigation, the far - month contracts will be under great pressure due to the significant surplus of shipping capacity. If the cargo volume continues to recover, there may be a price increase again in late December or early January [21]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in international oil prices dragged down fuel oil prices overnight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline, but it will still be supported by supply fluctuations in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to weaken [22]. Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish for asphalt [23]. Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea in the "Four Provinces" is stable with a slight decline, while the price in the Northeast continues to rise. The supply is abundant. The domestic oversupply pattern is expected to continue, and the price may return to a stalemate after the decline [24]. Methanol - The methanol futures price adjusted narrowly. The bullish expectation of overseas plant production cuts is gradually being realized, and the methanol valuation is low. However, the reality is still weak, and attention should be paid to the reduction intensity and duration of supply and market sentiment changes [25]. Pure Benzene - The domestic night - trading external crude oil price plummeted, and pure benzene operated weakly. The domestic arrival expectation is high, and the downstream demand is decreasing. Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [26]. Styrene - The output of styrene factories is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand remains good. The supply - demand balance is tight, and the total inventory continues to decline, which supports the styrene price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The propylene market lacks news guidance. The supply pressure of polyethylene increases. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly. The demand side is affected by the weak raw material prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC oscillated. The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to cost - end changes. Caustic soda oscillated. The supply is under high pressure, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Caustic soda operates weakly [29]. PX and PTA - The short - term supply - demand of PX weakens, but it is expected to be strong in the medium term. PTA's processing margin is low, and the inventory accumulation expectation eases. Before the Spring Festival, it follows the cost - driven logic [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but the inventory will accumulate around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip demand fades, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity. It is mainly cost - driven [32]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The glass intraday price oscillated. The profit is narrowing, and the cold - repair speed is accelerating. The demand is insufficient. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [33]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the Thai raw material market price decreased. The demand continues to weaken, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the inventory is increasing. RU is relatively strong, NR and BR are under observation, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. Soda Ash - The soda ash intraday price was weak. The industry continues to destock. The short - term focus is on the upstream cost fluctuations, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean production may be affected by the La Nina phenomenon. Wait for the end of the callback and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil continues to decline weakly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening. The short - term palm oil supply - demand is weaker, and it is in the process of finding the bottom [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - With the arrival of Australian rapeseed in China, the market focuses on customs clearance, pressing yield, and policy details. The domestic rapeseed sector is recommended to be observed in the short term [38]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans fluctuate repeatedly. The policy side is still conducting auctions. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight. US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [39]. Corn - The night - trading corn futures increased in positions and prices. The market is divided on the new - season corn output. The downstream corn inventory is very low. Pay attention to the replenishment situation after the price increase this week. Wait for the opportunity to short on highs [40]. Pig - The number of fertile sows decreased in October 2025. The spot pig price continues to decline weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [41]. Egg - The number of newly - opened laying hens will start to decline continuously from around December. The supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to gradually ease in the medium - term. In the short term, it will still focus on the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [42]. Cotton - US cotton rose slightly. The domestic cotton spot sales basis is stable. The new - cotton cost supports the price but also limits the upside. The cotton commercial inventory is not high, and the sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn market trading is weak. Temporarily observe [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market supply is relatively abundant, and US sugar faces upward pressure. In China, the market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is relatively good [44]. Apple - The futures price oscillates at a high level. The spot price is strong. The short - term price trend is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [45]. Wood - The futures price oscillates. The low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe [46]. Pulp - The pulp futures price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory has increased continuously, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. Temporarily observe [46]. Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares rose strongly yesterday, and all major futures index contracts rose. The macro - liquidity suppression has temporarily eased, and risk assets have a corrective rebound. The market currently focuses on the interaction between geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [47]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the market trading became冷清. Policy games and institutional behaviors are still key variables. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the range. Operate with caution [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively interprets the platinum - palladium futures and options contracts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, including details of the contracts, risk control systems, delivery notes, and information on delivery warehouses, factories, and brands, aiming to help investors understand and participate in platinum - palladium futures and options trading [13][15][21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures and Options Contracts - **Platinum (Palladium) Futures Contracts**: The trading of platinum (palladium) futures contracts starts on November 27, 2025. The first - listed contracts are PT(PD)2606, PT(PD)2608, and PT(PD)2610. Supported trading instructions include limit orders, market orders, etc. On the first listing day, the trading margin is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit is 14% of the listing benchmark price. The trading fee is 0.01% of the transaction amount, and intraday closing fees are waived [13][14]. - **Platinum (Palladium) Options Contracts**: The trading of platinum (palladium) options contracts begins on November 28, 2025. The first - listed contracts are based on PT(PD)2606, PT(PD)2608, and PT(PD)2610 futures contracts. Only limit orders and limit stop - loss (profit) orders are provided at the initial stage. The trading fee is 2 yuan per lot, and intraday closing fees are waived [15][16]. 3.2 Risk Control System - **Three - Stage Gradient Margin**: For platinum and palladium, from contract listing to the 10th trading day before the month before the delivery month, the margin is 5%; from the 10th trading day to the last trading day of the month before the delivery month, it is 10%; in the delivery month, it is 20% [26]. - **Position Limits**: For platinum and palladium futures, three - stage position limits are set. For example, in general months, if N>12000 lots for platinum, the limit for non - futures company members, etc., is 5%×N lots; if N≤12000 lots, it is 600 lots. For options, the position limit for non - futures company members, etc., is 600 lots for relevant combinations [30][34]. - **Large - Position Reporting**: The large - position reporting standard for non - futures company members, etc., for platinum and palladium futures and options contracts is 80% of the position limit set by the exchange [31][35]. 3.3 Delivery Notes - **Delivery Costs**: Assuming 400 yuan per gram, the estimated cost for holding 1 gram for 2 months is about 1.55 yuan, including fees such as handling fees, storage fees, and delivery fees. The delivery fee and standard warehouse receipt transfer payment service fee are temporarily exempted [39][40]. - **Delivery Methods and Time**: There are rolling delivery (from the first trading day to the day before the last trading day of the delivery month) and one - time delivery (after the close of the last trading day of the contract). The exchange starts handling delivery business on May 1, 2026 [41][42]. - **Quality Requirements**: There are differences in the chemical composition requirements for domestic and imported platinum and palladium. For example, the platinum content (mass fraction) of domestic and imported platinum should be ≥99.95% [44][45]. - **Delivery Procedures**: Members need to pay a delivery forecast deposit when applying for delivery forecast. There are specific regulations for goods storage, inspection, and handling of disputes over delivery quality and quantity [48]. 3.4 Delivery Warehouses, Factories, and Brands - **Registered Brands**: There are many domestic and foreign registered brands for platinum and lithium futures, such as "Guiyan" of Guiyan Resources (Yimen) Co., Ltd. for platinum, and relevant information about these brands, including production enterprises, addresses, and contact information, is provided [56][60]. - **Designated Delivery Factories and Warehouses**: There are specific lists of designated delivery factories and warehouses for platinum and palladium futures, including information such as regions, names, and contact details. All are benchmark warehouses with a premium and discount standard of 0 yuan per kilogram [68][72]. - **Quality Inspection Institutions and Fees**: There are several designated quality inspection institutions for platinum and palladium futures, and the maximum price limits for inspection fees for different items are specified, such as 4000 yuan per single - piece for impurity element content inspection [75][78].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided in the given content - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. The steel market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the upside is restricted by weak demand [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to fluctuate weakly due to abundant carbon supply, seasonal decline in iron - water production, and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - For silicon manganese, the bottom - support expectation has shifted downward due to factors such as the expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price and the slow increase in inventory [7]. - For ferrosilicon, the bottom - support strength will be tested as the supply remains at a high level, although the overall demand still has some resilience [8]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand for thread improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory began to decline [2]. - Downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, steel mills are in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2]. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but weak demand restricts the upside [2]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market fluctuated today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was still stronger than the same period. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly to the highest level this year, and the port inventory decreased last week and is expected to resume the accumulation trend this week [3]. - The apparent demand for steel rebounded from a low level last week, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is still weakening. Pig - iron production is in a seasonal decline trend, and the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production is slightly decreasing. Coke inventory has increased slightly, downstream purchases on a small scale as needed, and inventory changes are not significant. Traders' purchasing willingness is average [4]. - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [4]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price fluctuated weakly during the day. Attention should be paid to whether the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles will remain low due to weather factors [6]. - Coking - coal mine production has decreased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price [7]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Silicon - manganese weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level, and silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Spot ore prices have mixed trends, with high - grade oxidized ore rising slightly and semi - carbonate ore falling slightly. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The bottom - support expectation has shifted downward [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and blue - charcoal price [8]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom - support strength will be tested [8].

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as sugar, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Timber: ★★★, clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, bullish bias with limited market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, clear upward trend and appropriate investment chance [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and production conditions. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific situations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton has risen for two consecutive days, and the spot sales basis is stable. New cotton cost supports the price but also limits its height, with short - term range - bound trading likely. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the price. As of November 20, 4631000 tons of lint cotton were processed nationwide, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn market has weak trading, with less new orders for spinning mills and lower开机 rates. High - count yarn has firm prices and better trading. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, keeping the output high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are starting to crush, and with good weather, sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were large, putting pressure on the supply side. The market's focus is shifting to the next season's production estimate. With good rainfall in Guangxi in the third quarter and an increase in the sugarcane vegetation index, the 25/26 season's sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is strong. In the spot market, small and medium - sized apples are mainly traded in Shandong, and other varieties have less trading. In the Northwest, merchants are packaging their own apples for the market, and the mainstream price is stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. Due to poor apple quality and high purchase prices, there is strong reluctance to sell among traders and farmers, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The future de - stocking situation is the main trading point, and there are increasing differences between bulls and bears. It is necessary to monitor the de - stocking situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU), 20 - rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR) all declined. Domestic natural rubber is stable with a slight decline, synthetic rubber spot prices are stable, the overseas butadiene tower - mouth price has risen, and the Thai raw material market price has fallen. Currently, global natural rubber supply is at a high level, but China's Yunnan production area is gradually entering the non - tapping season. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, with some plants restarting or under maintenance. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also increased. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate decreased due to some tire companies' maintenance, and Shandong tire companies' finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 468900 tons, and last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 17000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 39800 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, inventory is rising, cost support is stable, the external environment is deteriorating, and market sentiment is cautious. The strategy is to be bullish on RU, wait and see on NR and BR, and look for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for NR and BR [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp is 5300 yuan/ton for Moon and 5170 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta. The price of broad - leaf pulp is 4400 yuan/ton for Goldfish. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports is 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% month - on - month increase, with two consecutive weeks of significant inventory accumulation. The continuous increase in domestic import inventory and weak demand continue, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. After the previous increase, the basis has narrowed significantly. Due to the overall weak fundamentals, the price has continued to decline after the basis convergence. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates. In the spot market, the mainstream price is stable. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply will remain low. The port outbound volume is above 60000 cubic meters, and demand supports the price. Log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. Low inventory supports the price to some extent, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

隔夜贵金属上涨。随着包括纽约联储主席以及美联储理事沃勒等多位美联储官员表态支持12月降息,利率市 场隐含降息概率升至80%。俄乌相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈,持续关注后续进展。市场 不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。 ★俄乌局势—1美国总统特朗普: （谈及乌克兰会谈）可能有好事发生,乌克兰谈判可能正在取得进展。② 德国总理默茨：本周乌克兰谈判不会取得突破。③鸟克兰官员：此前的28点和平计划已不复存在，美乌已起 草新的19点和平计划，但政治上最敏感的部分将留给两国总统决定。④泽连斯基：结束冲突步骤清单超近可 行,将与特朗普商讨敏感议题 ★美联储—1理事沃勒:自美联储上次会议以来,现有数据显示变化不大,通胀并非大问题。我担心的是劳 动力市场，我主张在12月降息。②美联储戴利：就业市场可能突然恶化，支持在12月降息。尽管戴利今年对 货币政策没有投票权,但她很少在公开场合与美联储主席鲍威尔持不同意见。3市场出现美联储应等待非农 公布,推迟12月议息时间的观点。 ★美国9月PCE将于12月5日发布,三季度GDP的二次预估数据发布仍待重新安排,初值取消发布。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 昆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆波动反复，反弹之后再度回调。目前现货市场报价稳定，市场参与者挺价意愿偏强。政策端上周仍然在进行拍卖,不 过市场预计短期拍卖量尚未对供应端带来冲击。今年国产高蛋白太豆供应趋紧，因此市场对高蛋白大豆给予乐观的预期，给整 体大豆市场带来偏强的预期。美豆方面11月份显现出中国在采购美国大豆，预计中国 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price rebounded overnight, with the SC01 contract rising 0.67% during the day. The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price rebounded overnight, and the SC01 contract rose 0.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The US sanctions on Russian oil have come into effect, and the negotiation between the US and Ukraine on the peace plan before the deadline this Thursday is still uncertain [2] - The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. Russian energy facilities are continuously attacked, and the exports have declined slightly recently. The US sanctions on Russia have come into effect. It is expected that its crack spread and monthly spread will be repaired recently [3] - The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The Middle East region will maintain a high level of exports to Asia due to factors such as the decline in power generation demand and the steady production increase of OPEC+. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently. The RFCC devices in the Asia-Pacific region have not fully recovered, and the Dangote maintenance has been advanced. As the gasoline and diesel spread declines due to the increase in refinery start-up, low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The latest commercial inventory destocking continues to slow down, and the year-on-year amplitude of social inventory has shown an expanding trend [4] - The recent stable and rising spot price in Shandong has boosted the futures market. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Red stars represent a predicted trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene is stable with a slight increase, while plastic and polypropylene are falling due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has a downward trend in pure benzene and a stable - supported trend in styrene [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, PTA follows cost - driven logic, ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space, short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different trends for methanol and urea. Methanol may have a long - spread opportunity, while urea is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows that PVC may stop falling and stabilize, and caustic soda is in a weak operation [7]. - The soda ash - glass market shows that soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation, and glass may have limited downward space [8]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Market lacks news, with stable enterprise quotes and a slight increase in real - deal prices [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures decline. Plastic has increased supply pressure due to reduced maintenance and more arrivals, and weak demand. Polypropylene's supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices continue to fall. There are concerns about Asian pure benzene exports, but the sustainability is questionable. Downstream demand is weak [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Supply may decrease slightly, demand is good, and inventory is falling, supporting prices [3]. Polyester - PX's short - term supply - demand is weak, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic and may see improved processing margins [5]. - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space. Short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures adjust narrowly, and spot prices rise slightly. There may be an opportunity to go long on the 5 - 9 spread, but beware of weak reality [6]. - Urea futures fall, and spot prices in the Northeast rise. The supply - surplus situation is expected to continue [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. There is a possibility of export improvement to India, and inventory is decreasing. It may follow cost changes [7]. - Caustic soda shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is in a weak operation [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash shows a weak trend. It is in a de - stocking situation, with increased production. It is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term [8]. - Glass shows an oscillating trend. There may be limited downward space due to cost support and potential cold - repair [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important precious metals with high demand in various industries, and their supply is highly concentrated, with significant supply - side impacts on prices. The supply - side factors such as production cuts, accidents, and disruptions in recycling channels can cause obvious price fluctuations [15]. - The demand for platinum and palladium is mainly in automotive catalysts, industry, jewelry, and medical fields. In the context of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, the hydrogen energy industry is expected to become a new growth point for platinum and palladium consumption [37][47]. - China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, with a high degree of import dependence. The importance of the recycling end is increasing, but the supply of waste materials is tight, and domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition [32][82]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Species Overview - **Natural Attributes**: Platinum and palladium are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs). Platinum has a crustal content of 0.005 ppm, and palladium has 0.0006 ppm. Platinum has high melting point, good ductility, and stable chemical properties. Palladium can adsorb gases, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [6][7][8]. - **Resource Distribution and Classification**: Platinum - group metal resources are mainly distributed in South Africa, Russia, the United States, and other regions. The deposits can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits, with magma - related processes being the main formation mechanism [10][13]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain - **Upstream**: The upstream of the platinum - group metal industry chain is dominated by a few mining and smelting integrated producers. The "oligopoly" structure makes the supply side dominant in price. The mining and extraction of platinum - group metals involve exploration, mining development, ore extraction, processing, and refining [15][16]. - **Supply and Recycling of Platinum - Group Materials**: The separation and purification processes of platinum - group metals vary according to the raw material components. The recycling of platinum - group metals is becoming increasingly important, but the supply of waste materials is tight [19][32]. - **Terminal Applications**: Platinum and palladium are mainly used in automotive catalysts, jewelry, industry, medical, and other fields. Automotive catalysts are the largest consumer area, with platinum's consumption structure being more diversified and over 80% of palladium used in automotive catalysts [37]. - **Investment Channels**: Platinum investment channels include physical investment (platinum bars and coins), platinum ETFs, futures, forwards, and stocks. Palladium investment demand is relatively small [49][50]. 3.3 Global Platinum Supply - Demand Pattern - **Supply**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output accounted for 71% of the global total. The global platinum output decreased in 2024 due to various factors such as power outages and company restructurings [55]. - **Demand**: The main consumers of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. In 2024, the global platinum demand decreased by 1.6% to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons [65]. 3.4 Global Palladium Supply - Demand Pattern - **Supply**: Russia, South Africa, Canada, and the United States are the main suppliers of global palladium. In 2024, Russia and South Africa's palladium output accounted for 43% and 41% of the global total respectively. The global palladium output increased slightly in 2024 [69][71]. - **Demand**: The main consumers of global palladium are China, the United States, Europe, and Japan. In 2024, the global palladium demand decreased by 4% to 254.2 tons, with a supply surplus of 2.4 tons [73][77]. 3.5 China's Platinum - Group Resource Pattern - **Resource Endowment**: China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, mainly distributed in Gansu, Yunnan, and other regions. In 2022, China's platinum - group metal reserves were 80.9 tons, and the resource reserves are decreasing [82]. - **Import Dependence**: China's platinum and palladium resources have a high degree of import dependence. In 2024, China imported 104.1 tons of platinum and 28.1 tons of palladium [86][88][92]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2024, China consumed 64.4 tons of platinum and 68.9 tons of palladium. The demand for platinum in the automotive catalyst and chemical industries decreased, while the demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst field decreased significantly [97][101]. - **Import and Export and Taxes**: The import tariffs and value - added taxes of platinum and palladium vary according to the processing state. China's platinum is mainly imported from South Africa, and palladium is mainly imported from Russia and South Africa [110][111][114]. 3.6 Platinum and Palladium Price Review No detailed price review content is provided in the text, only a mention of historical price trends. 3.7 Guangzhou Futures Exchange Platinum and Palladium Futures - **Contract Text**: On November 7, 2025, the GZFE issued announcements on the palladium futures and palladium options contracts and related rules [126]. - **Risk Control System**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.8 Platinum and Palladium Options - **Option Contracts**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Risk Control System**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.9 Delivery Business - **Delivery Time**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Product Form and Premium/Discount**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Unit**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Handling Fee**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Warehousing and Out - of - Warehouse Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Physical Delivery Method**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Quality Standard**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Warehouse Standard Warehouse Receipt Delivery**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Factory Warehouse Standard Warehouse Receipt Delivery**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.10 Platinum and Palladium Delivery Areas, Factories, and Warehouses - **Platinum Futures Delivery Area Factories**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Palladium Futures Delivery Area Factories**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Platinum and Palladium Futures Delivery Warehouses**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.11 Platinum and Palladium Designated Quality Inspection Institutions and Inspection Fees - **Platinum and Palladium Futures Quality Inspection Institution List**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Maximum Limit of Platinum Futures Inspection Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Maximum Limit of Palladium Futures Inspection Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.12 Platinum and Palladium Delivery Brands - **List of Registered Brands for Platinum Futures (Domestic)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Platinum Futures (Overseas)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Palladium Futures (Domestic)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Palladium Futures (Overseas)**: No detailed content is provided in the text.