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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - For the CTA strategy, the signals vary across different commodities. For example, the comprehensive signal for methanol is short, for glass is long, for iron ore changes from long to short, and for lead remains short [3][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Commodities in General - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, the demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. The comprehensive signal this week is short [3]. Black Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the black sector decreased. The term structure shows narrowing differentiation. The positions of coking coal and coke remained low, and the short - cycle momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long [9]. Non - Ferrous Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed. Copper and zinc are relatively strong, and tin is relatively weak in cross - section [3]. - The time - series momentum of gold declined, the position of silver remained high, and the cross - section differentiation at both ends widened [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The long - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemical sector decreased, and ethylene glycol is at the short end in cross - section [3]. Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - section differentiation of oil and meal narrowed, and the position of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Glass - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long. The production of float glass enterprises, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities, and the continuous destocking of float glass enterprises all release long signals. The spot price of glass is neutral, and the profit of glass remains short [9]. Iron Ore - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal changes from long to short. The cumulative year - on - year decline of iron ore production has narrowed, the port daily dredging volume has decreased, the inventory of port iron ore and trade ore has accumulated, and the spot price center has moved down [11]. Lead - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week the comprehensive signal remains short. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, the inventory of lead has decreased, the position of the main contract of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the spread of lead has moved down [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Paper pulp: ★★★ - Sugar: ★★★ - Apple: ★★★ - Timber: ★★★ - Natural rubber: ★★★ - 20 - number rubber: ★★★ - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ [4] Core Views - The cotton market has strong support from low commercial inventories and stable demand, but short - term upside is limited. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak. Apple market has increased long - short divergence, and the focus is on de - stocking. Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is stable. Pulp prices may fluctuate in the medium - term. Timber prices are supported by low inventories. [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures have been fluctuating recently. Although new cotton production has increased significantly this year, commercial inventories are not high and sales progress is fast, providing support. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the focus is on the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, and finished product inventories are low. The industry can consider hedging opportunities, and the current operation is to wait and see. As of November 30, national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, and as of December 4, the cumulative processing volume was 5.794 million tons. [1] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production remains high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand have started crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow, but the 25/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi is expected to have a relatively good output. Overall, sugar prices are expected to be weak. [2] Apple - Futures prices are fluctuating at high levels. Spot prices are stable. Apple sales are in the off - season, and cold - storage transactions are average. As of December 5, national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.2438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.24%. The market's trading logic has shifted to demand, and the focus is on future de - stocking. [3] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices fell slightly, 20 - number rubber NR futures prices fluctuated, and butadiene rubber BR futures prices declined. Global natural rubber supply is entering the decreasing period, and synthetic rubber supply is stable. Natural rubber inventories are increasing, and synthetic rubber inventories are decreasing. The cost has strong support, and the market sentiment is cautious. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures rose slightly. As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.101 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons from the previous period. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. The mid - term trend may be range - bound. [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices in Rizhao decreased by 10 yuan. Supply prices decreased, and short - term arrivals will decrease. As of December 5, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 66,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5,300 cubic meters. The total national port log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Low inventories support prices, and the current operation is to wait and see. [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The black series continues the resonance decline under the negative feedback pattern, and the disk is still under pressure in the short term. After a significant adjustment, the volatility may intensify. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro policies [1]. - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose. There are short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. In the medium and long term, as supply and demand gradually become surplus, the overall trend is under downward pressure [2]. - The coke and coking coal prices may be mainly in a weak shock. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [3][5]. - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are mainly in a shock. The silicon manganese inventory is slowly increasing, and the ferrosilicon supply is decreasing and the inventory is slightly decreasing. Attention should be paid to the bottom support strength [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk declined. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory slowly declined. The hot metal output continued to decline, and the supply pressure gradually eased. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the steel mill profits were still poor. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage is relatively large. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the infrastructure growth rate continued to decline, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. The steel exports remained high in November [1]. Iron Ore - Today's trend was weak. On the supply side, the global shipment increased month-on-month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month, slightly lower than the same period last year. The port inventory continued to accumulate and approached the annual high. On the demand side, the terminal demand was at a low level in the off-season, the steel mill profitability was poor, and the hot metal production continued to decrease last week. It is expected to maintain the seasonal production reduction trend in the future, but the decline rate will slow down. The overseas interest rate cut expectation has increased, and an important domestic meeting is about to be held, and the overall macro atmosphere is warm [2]. Coke - The intraday price was in a weak shock. The market still has expectations for the second round of coke price cuts. The coking profit is average, and the daily output has slightly increased. The coke inventory has slightly decreased, and currently, downstream customers purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory change is not large. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mill profits are average. The steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [3]. Coking Coal - The intraday price was in a weak shock. The coking coal mine output decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were average, and the transaction prices mainly decreased. The terminal inventory decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production end inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mill profits are average. The steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [5]. Silicon Manganese - The intraday price was mainly in a shock. Driven by the disk rebound, the manganese ore spot price has increased. The Comilog quotation has increased slightly month-on-month, and it is reported that the offer volume has decreased month-on-month. Currently, there is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore will probably increase. The hot metal output is seasonally decreasing, the weekly silicon manganese output has decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory is slowly increasing [6]. Ferrosilicon - The intraday price was mainly in a shock. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the hot metal output has rebounded to a high level. The export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The metal magnesium output has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand is still resilient. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly trends of non - ferrous metals, analyzing the price movements, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks of various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It suggests different trading strategies based on each metal's characteristics, like holding copper long - positions with certain stop - profit measures, being cautious about high - position risks in tin, etc. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Price and Market**: Last week, both domestic and foreign copper prices hit record highs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. The spot signal shows that the inflection point of copper price is not obvious. [1] - **Supply**: In December, there is a certain production rush expectation, with an estimated monthly output increase of 5.57 tons. Domestic smelters may choose to reduce the production of 106 primary copper concentrates during equipment shutdown. [1] - **Outlook**: The LME copper price is at a high level, and the spot premium has decreased. The market is mainly trading based on expectations. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices may pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the copper price at a record high may correct. Long - positions can be held along the M5 moving average, and partial active profit - taking can be considered. [1] 3.2 Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, with no long - term production reduction. In December and January, 50,000 tons and 110,000 tons of exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out respectively. [1] - **Demand**: The downstream aluminum processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% month - on - month. In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 14.8% year - on - year but increased by 66,800 tons month - on - month. [1] - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 985,000 tons, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 7000 tons to 121,000 tons. The inventory is higher than in previous years. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China have widened. [1] - **Outlook**: Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of silver and copper prices has driven up aluminum prices. The medium - term fluctuating and strengthening trend continues, but in the short term, market sentiment may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see. [1] 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Market**: Last week, SHFE zinc rose 3.92% and strongly broke through the annual line, following the external market trend. The internal - external price difference is oscillating at a high level. [1] - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased to 55,400 tons. Overseas smelters' production resumption expectations are insufficient. The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and domestic smelter maintenance is expanding. The zinc ingot export window is open, and downstream demand is stable. [1] - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the expected investment in underground pipeline network construction and renovation is about 5 trillion, and galvanized pipe consumption is expected to be strong in 2026. [1] - **Outlook**: Supported by tight ore supply, SHFE zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound. After breaking through the annual line, it is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark. [1] 3.4 Lead - **Price and Market**: Last week, the expectation of smelter production reduction and increased downstream bargain - hunting purchases supported the market rebound. The SHFE lead main contract rose 1.7%, and LME lead rebounded to the 20 - day moving average and then faced pressure. [1] - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 243,000 tons, still relatively high. The supply of lead concentrates is in short supply, and the recycling volume of waste batteries has decreased. The market supply of lead ingots is tight. [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery production increased by 1.07 percentage points to 24.46% week - on - week. The consumer market has both positive and negative factors, with insufficient incremental expectations. [1] - **Outlook**: Constrained by cost and consumption, SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton. There may be short - term price increases due to capital movements. [1] 3.5 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: SHFE nickel rebounded and traded sideways at a high level, with light market trading and relatively low positions. SHFE stainless steel also rebounded, but overall trading was sluggish. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In the context of repeated macro - expectations, the willingness of both long and short sides to compete has decreased. Although stainless steel mills have frequently announced production cuts, the actual production reduction in November was insufficient. Downstream demand confidence is lacking. [1] - **Inventory**: Pure nickel inventory increased by 1500 tons to 57,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 997,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: Given high - level inventory and volatile macro - factors, short - selling at high levels is more reasonable. [1] 3.6 Tin - **Price and Market**: Funds have pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and SHFE tin weighted price reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The short - term price fluctuations have increased. [1] - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin exports in November decreased. The situation in the Congo is uncertain. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December. The real - world supply of tin ore is tight, and the cost of recycled materials is fluctuating. [1] - **Demand**: There are no bright spots in traditional fields, and the demand highlight is high - end semiconductor products. Domestic spot trading has deepened, and social inventory has increased. [1] - **Outlook**: In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, the probability of an increase in supply is high, and the recovery speed may be faster than demand. Attention should be paid to high - position risks. [1] 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: Last week, lithium carbonate futures adjusted, with active short - selling in the market. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has slightly corrected. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall demand remains strong. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to perform well. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand. The overall inventory of downstream battery and material factories is flat or slightly reduced. [1] - **Inventory**: The total market inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 113,600 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 21,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1700 tons to 44,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply from a high level, with large market differences. The fundamentals are generally strong, and the short - side is relatively tight. [1] 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The main contract of industrial silicon S12601 showed a weak downward trend in the range of 8900 - 9030 yuan/ton this week. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang has dropped to 9000 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to slightly decline to 396,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%. Some enterprises plan to slightly reduce the supply volume. [1] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 800 tons to 558,000 tons, with an increase in both general and delivery warehouses. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. The inventory reduction at the end of the year is still under pressure. If the actual production reduction of local factories is limited, the price may further decline. [1] 3.9 Polysilicon - **Price**: Last week, the main contract of polysilicon reached a high of 59,200 yuan/ton due to the expectation of warehouse receipts. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress bullish sentiment. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The output in November was 114,600 tons, lower than expected. In December, it is expected to slightly decline. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises have reduced production. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 291,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may still be strong after a brief negative impact if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor intensity of the black and chemical sectors declined, while the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The cross - sectionally stronger sector is non - ferrous, and the weaker ones are chemicals and agricultural products. The overall signal for commodities this week is a combination of long and short positions in different sectors and factors [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Overall Situation - The proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly this week. The factor intensity of the black and chemical sectors declined, and the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The cross - sectionally stronger sector is non - ferrous, and the weaker ones are chemicals and agricultural products [3]. Specific Sector Analysis Non - ferrous Metals - Gold's time - series momentum declined, silver's trading volume remained at a high level, and the cross - sectional divergence widened. The short - term momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, the cross - sectional momentum divergence narrowed, and copper and zinc were strong while tin was weak in the cross - section [3]. Black Metals - The term structure showed narrowing divergence. The trading volumes of coking coal and coke remained at low levels, and the short - term momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. Energy and Chemicals - The long - term momentum factor declined, and ethylene glycol was at the short end of the cross - section [3]. Agricultural Products - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals narrowed, and the trading volume of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Strategy Net Worth and Fundamental Factors Commodities - The demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%, and the comprehensive signal this week was short. For methanol, the domestic production capacity utilization rate was flat, the demand side's long - position strength weakened to neutral, the inventory side signaled short - positions, and the spread side was slightly long [3]. Float Glass - Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week's comprehensive signal was long. The supply, demand, and inventory sides signaled long - positions, the spread side was neutral, and the profit side continued to signal short - positions [9]. Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week's comprehensive signal changed from long to short. The supply, demand, inventory, and spread sides all had changes in their signals, with the overall trend turning bearish [11]. Lead - Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week's comprehensive signal remained short. The supply side's long - position feedback further weakened, the inventory side's short - position feedback weakened, and the spread side's short - position signal intensity increased [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price dropped nearly 2% overnight. The resumption of production in Iraq and the expected increase in Russian oil exports under a potential peace agreement in Ukraine may lead to a downward trend in oil prices in the medium to long term, with increased volatility in the short term due to the game between positive and negative news [1]. - Precious metals continued to oscillate at high levels. With the U.S. economic data being mixed and the high probability of interest rate cuts priced in, attention is focused on Powell's statement at the Fed meeting. It is not advisable to chase high in the precious metal market before gold breaks through the previous resistance [1]. - The prices of various metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of oscillation, rise, or fall [1 - 45]. Summaries by Related Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices dropped nearly 2%. Iraq restored production at the West Quran oil field, and the market expects increased Russian oil exports if a peace agreement is reached. There is a greater inventory accumulation expectation in Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices in the medium - long term remains [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals continued to oscillate at high levels. The probability of Fed rate cuts is over 80%. Gold should not be chased high before breaking through the previous resistance [1]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated at high levels. There is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause this week. If the Fed cuts rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the high - priced copper may correct. Long positions can be held along the MA5 moving average with partial active profit - taking [2]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. In the medium term, the upward - oscillating trend continues, but in the short term, due to the approaching Fed meeting, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased. With tight scrap aluminum supply and unclear tax policy adjustment, it is worth paying attention to the possible narrowing of the spread with Shanghai aluminum at the end of the year [4]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to operate weakly, but the short - term downward space on the futures market may be limited [5]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of domestic smelter production cuts is strong, and zinc prices are expected to rise and may break through the annual line [6]. - **Lead**: The decline in both domestic and foreign inventories supports lead prices, but the rebound space of Shanghai lead is restricted. It is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are expected to turn bearish in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to high - level risks, and it is advisable to arrange out - of - the - money put options for distant contracts [8]. Energy - related Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened. Supply reduction is less than expected, and demand is shrinking. The market is mainly supported by leading enterprises [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has fallen to the lower limit of the range. With potential supply and demand pressures at the end of the year, the price may further decline if production cuts in Xinjiang are limited [10]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are oscillating weakly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the prices are expected to oscillate [18]. - **Asphalt**: Supply has slightly increased, while demand has decreased. The commercial inventory depletion rhythm has slowed down, and the BU trend is under pressure [19]. - **Urea**: The urea futures price dropped significantly. Supply is abundant, and the market is expected to oscillate downward [20]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures price continued to fall. Port inventories remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene has fallen. Although there is expected inventory accumulation in December, the supply - demand pressure will be relieved in the future. It is advisable to consider positive spreads for month - to - month contracts at low prices [22]. - **Styrene**: The domestic supply - demand of styrene remains in a tight balance. The short - term price may continue to rise [23]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are firm, while polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene is in a seasonal demand off - season [24]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is operating weakly, and caustic soda is also in a weak trend. Both industries face high inventory pressure [25]. - **PX & PTA**: PX and PTA prices slightly declined. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to recover [26]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure, and it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. The medium - term trend is weak [27]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - grade chip demand is weak. The long - term supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is relatively good [28]. Steel and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price weakened. Supply is relatively abundant, and the long - term trend has a downward pressure [12]. - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated downward. There is an expectation of a second price cut, and the price may oscillate weakly [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated downward. The supply is abundant, and the price may oscillate weakly [14]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated. The port inventory has a structural problem, and the bottom support needs to be observed [15]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated. The supply has decreased, and the demand is still resilient. The bottom support needs to be observed [16]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures price oscillated weakly. South American weather has improved, and attention is paid to the USDA report. There are opportunities to go long on the 05 contract at low prices [32]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term, and the palm oil is expected to oscillate within a range. Attention is paid to the MPOB report [33]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed meal and oil futures prices may continue to be weak in the short term. Attention is paid to the USDA report [34]. - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybeans oscillated horizontally. Short - term attention is paid to the spot and policy [35]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a short - term high - level oscillating correction. Attention is paid to short - selling opportunities for the 01 contract [36]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price rebounded. The long - term pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there may be a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [37]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price may be weak in the near - term and the far - term high is expected to be established [38]. - **Cotton**: The U.S. cotton price continued to fall, and the domestic cotton price oscillated. The downstream demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [39]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and attention is paid to the production in India and Thailand and in China's Guangxi [40]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillated at a high level. The short - term price is strong, and attention is paid to inventory depletion [41]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European route index slightly increased. The price may be adjusted at the end of December, and the 02 contract may reflect the peak - season level. The far - term contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation [17]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillated. Low inventory supports the price, and it is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price fell. The inventory decreased, and the medium - term trend may be range - bound. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [43]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rose strongly. The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies. It is advisable to increase positions at low prices after major central bank meetings [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. After the improvement of liquidity, there are opportunities for rebound in some varieties [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 1st to December 5th, the important data released by the US boosted the expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations showed no significant progress. The US dollar index continued to decline weekly. Stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. Overall, in US dollar terms, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][7]. - In China, the November RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 49.9, falling into the contraction range, and the November RatingDog service industry PMI was 52.1. Stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][21]. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, and the market's focus will shift to the operation of the US dollar monetary policy next year. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting this week [4][30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Global Large - scale Asset Performance Global Stock Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the market expected a high probability of a US dollar interest rate cut in December. Global major stock markets generally rose. The Asia - Pacific region led the gains, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index declined weekly [9]. - Specific stock market performance data for different regions are provided, such as the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rising 1.10% weekly, the South Korea Composite Index rising 4.42% weekly, etc. [12][13][14] Global Bond Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000. The September core PCE price index year - on - year met market expectations. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 12BP weekly to 4.14%. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the US November ISM manufacturing index was 48.2, lower than expected and the previous value, and the November ISM service industry index was 52, better than expected and the previous value. The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest rate hike, and the US dollar index declined weekly. Most major non - US currencies against the US dollar rose, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated. The US dollar index fell 0.46% weekly [17]. Global Commodity Market Overview - The slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations led to a weekly rise in international oil prices. Supply - side disturbances drove up international copper and silver prices significantly. Major agricultural product prices declined, and non - ferrous metal prices generally rose [18]. Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance Domestic Stock Market Overview - During the domestic policy window period, the market sentiment was positive. A - share major broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. The growth style performed better. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals and communications led the gains, while real estate and media performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% weekly [22]. Domestic Bond Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 84.8 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market was weak weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [24]. Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the chemical industry performed poorly [26]. Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, and the market's focus will shift to the operation of the US dollar monetary policy next year. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting this week [30].

2025-12-08 ⚫ 综述 上周市场整体呈现先跌后涨的趋势，绝大部分指数收涨，其 中创业板指数领涨，周度涨幅达 1.86%。板块方面，有色金属和通 信等行业板块表现突出，周度涨幅分别为 5.35%和 3.69%；传媒和 房地产等板块走势偏弱，周度跌幅分别约为 3.86%和 2.15%。上周 市场的焦点集中在美元流动性修复的可持续性。一方面，特朗普 暗示可能提名哈塞特担任美联储主席，增强了市场对 12 月降息的 积极预期。另一方面，中法领导人会晤等地缘事件推动局势向积 极方向发展。国内方面，目前人民币汇率震荡偏强，但受日债收 益率飙升的溢出效应及国内债市波动影响，市场流动性受到扰动。 政策上，中国证监会主席吴清于 12 月 6 日表示将强化分类监管， 以"扶优限劣"为核心，对优质机构"适度松绑"，适度打开资本 空间和杠杆限制。预计短期国内市场或将延续震荡偏强格局，继 续关注后续国内债市的流动性变化以及政策端的信号。 ⚫ 期权市场 上周期权市场中，各品种金融期权隐波（IV）普遍下降，多数 已处于年内较低水平。其中科创 50 期权隐波降幅最深，达 13%。 当前科创 50 期权（IV=24%）和创业板指期权（I ...