2025/7/9 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,900.00 -0.44% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,160.00 -0.29% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -260.00 -25.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -40.00 15.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -23.04 2.27 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -60.80 -0.50 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -55.00 -10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -30.00 -15.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 - 15.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 35,649.00 21.23% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 51,617.00 1.12% 成交持仓比 / 0.69 19.89% LME库存 吨 0.00% 258,075.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 47,713.00 1.92% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,044.00 0.32% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.40 -0.61% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 21,970.00 -1.04% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 22,050 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250709："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/9 今值 | 指标 | 单位 | | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,215.00 | 2.11% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 285.00 | -170.00 | | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 38.00 | 10.14% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 38,385.00 -385.00 | 5.12% 1,630.00 | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, although the spot and futures prices have rebounded recently, the oversupply situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and the selling pressure after the price rebound will suppress the silicon price. The operating range is expected to be between 7,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side structural adjustment has brought positive sentiment, and the short - term futures market is expected to be strong. However, there is a high risk of inventory accumulation, and the upward driving force is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures and spot prices of industrial silicon have shown a resonance upward trend. For example, the industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,980 yuan/ton on July 4, 2025, with different price changes in various regions and grades [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon has rebounded from a low level. For instance, the N - type material price increased from 33.50 yuan/kg on June 27 to 34.50 yuan/kg on July 4 [8]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The demand for silicon wafers is insufficient, the price has decreased across all sizes, and the production schedule has dropped to about 52GW [3]. - **Battery Cell**: The production schedule of battery cells in July is expected to drop to about 54GW, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3]. - **Component**: The terminal demand for components has been severely overdrawn, new orders are limited, and the price is on a downward trend [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon continues to decline. As of July 4, the average price of DMC remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton, while the average prices of 107 glue and silicone oil decreased [96]. - **Silicon Aluminum Alloy**: The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has declined. As of July 4, the average price of ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of A356 decreased by 0.47% [109]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Industrial Silicon** - **Cost**: The power cost in the southwest production area is gradually decreasing, and the prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and silicon stone are also falling, providing insufficient support for the silicon price [3]. - **Supply**: The number of open furnaces in some regions has increased, and the overall supply is expected to rise. For example, in the week of July 3, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 13 units [37]. - **Demand**: The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased, while the demand from organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is average or weak [3]. - **Inventory**: The standard futures warehouse receipts are flowing out, but the inventory is still at a high level [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: In July, some enterprises increased production, and some carried out maintenance. After offsetting, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand for photovoltaic has been overdrawn, the domestic orders have decreased significantly, and the overseas orders are relatively stable. The demand for polysilicon is weak [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the total polysilicon inventory was 272,000 tons, and as of July 4, the number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots [3]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: The start - up of the organic silicon industry has recovered, but it is still mainly in a state of reduced production. The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [89][93]. - **Silicon Aluminum Alloy**: The start - up rate of the silicon - aluminum alloy industry has rebounded slightly, but the demand is still weak, and the price has declined [104][109]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Industrial Silicon**: As of July 3, the social inventory of industrial silicon (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 552,000 tons, and the total factory inventory of the three major production areas was 201,000 tons. As of July 4, the number of registered exchange warehouse receipts was 51,701 lots, equivalent to 258,500 tons of spot [119].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Electrolytic Copper) - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates still exist, and there are disturbances in the production or transportation of many overseas copper mines. However, the Trump administration's tariff increases on many countries and the emergence of traditional consumption off - season characteristics in China have led to continuous accumulation of the global total inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause adjustments in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract lightly at high prices in the short term [4]. - The positive basis and high - level monthly spread of Shanghai copper, as well as the positive spread of LME copper contracts, are due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs leading to export rush expectations and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates. But considering factors such as the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season in China, investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities for Shanghai copper monthly spreads and wait and see for LME copper arbitrage opportunities [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - economic Environment - The US Senate's "Great Beauty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit expansion may exceed $3 trillion. Trump postponed the effective date of reciprocal tariffs and the negotiation deadline to August 1, and sent the first batch of tariff letters to 14 countries with tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%. The US ADP employment number in June was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September/October/December [3]. Upstream Market - **Copper Concentrate**: The transportation of copper concentrates from Las Bambas and Constancia was interrupted due to road blockades by informal miners. Rio Tinto paid nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit. Some mines had production or transportation problems, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic copper concentrates in July. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative but increased compared with last week, and the world (China) port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week [3][23]. - **Copper Smelting**: Some overseas copper smelters stopped production, while some domestic smelters had new production capacity put into operation. The weekly processing fees of domestic northern (southern) crude copper decreased (increased) month - on - month, and the domestic smelter's crude - smelting maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production (import) of domestic crude copper in July [3][29]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: Some domestic electrolytic copper production capacity was put into operation, while some overseas smelters had production reduction or suspension plans. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase month - on - month, and the import volume may also increase month - on - month [3][30]. Downstream Market - **Copper Rod**: Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased (decreased) compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [4][34]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate, raw material, and finished - product inventory of copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week. Affected by factors such as the off - season, the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [47][50]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The monthly processing fee of copper enameled wire remained flat. Affected by the traditional consumption off - season, the order volume and capacity utilization rate decreased slightly compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [48][50]. - **Copper Foil**: The weekly processing fee of copper foil decreased slightly. The actual downstream order increment was mainly rigid demand, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium - ion and electronic - circuit copper foil in July may decrease month - on - month [52][54]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: Affected by the traditional consumption off - season, the orders from consumer electronics and new - energy customers decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [54]. - **Copper Tube and Brass Rod**: Due to factors such as the expected decrease in the production of household air - conditioners in July, high inventory of air - conditioner manufacturers, high raw - material procurement costs, and a decline in new orders, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes and brass rods in July may decrease month - on - month [56]. Market Structure and Arbitrage Opportunities - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of Shanghai copper was positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread was also positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities for Shanghai copper monthly spreads [8]. - **LME Copper Contract Spread**: The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper were positive and at relatively high levels. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was close to the 75% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: The spreads between COMEX copper and LME copper, and between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper were positive and at relatively high levels, which was due to concerns about the unexpected results of the Trump administration's Section 232 investigation on copper [11]. - **Contract Price Structure**: The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near - and far - month contracts showed a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper showed a Contango structure [13]. Inventory Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and LME copper inventory increased compared with last week. The COMEX copper inventory also increased due to the transportation of about 500,000 tons of copper to US ports by international traders. The copper concentrate inventory at Chinese ports increased compared with last week [16][18][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at high levels with a loose supply - demand outlook, but due to national policies guiding capacity clearance and expectations of automobile consumption stimulus, the prices of domestic and imported lithium concentrates have risen, suggesting that lithium carbonate prices may still have room to rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [3]. - The basis of lithium carbonate is positive and generally within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. This is due to the continuation of domestic new - energy vehicle consumption stimulus policies. However, the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand outlook remains loose, so investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Concentrate - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali Goulamina lithium spodumene project phase I with an annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate was officially put into production in July, and Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine's 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, increasing the total capacity to 2.14 million tons per year. However, the daily prices of domestic and imported lithium ores have increased [9]. - Domestic lithium concentrate production in July may decrease month - on - month, while imports may increase [2][10][12]. Lithium Carbonate - The capacity utilization rate and production of domestic lithium carbonate have decreased compared to last week. However, with the possible commissioning of Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity in July 2025 and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton capacity for preparing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon by December 2025, the production of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply outlook is loose [26]. - The import window is closed, and the import volume of Chinese lithium carbonate in July may decrease month - on - month [33]. - The daily cash production costs of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrates are about 61,700 and 66,500 yuan/ton respectively, resulting in negative production profits. The quarterly production profits of producing lithium carbonate from integrated lithium spodumene/mica/salt - lake sources are positive [18][22]. Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production costs of Chinese smelting (causticizing) method lithium hydroxide are 56,900 (64,600) yuan/ton, with positive (negative) production profits. The monthly processing fee from coarse - grained to fine - grained lithium hydroxide has decreased [37][38]. - Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelting and causticizing methods) in July. The inventory of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelters and downstream) in July may increase month - on - month [42][51]. - The daily export profit of Chinese lithium hydroxide is negative, so the export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide in July may decrease month - on - month [47]. Demand Side - The production volume of Chinese lithium iron phosphate (lithium manganese iron phosphate) in July may increase month - on - month [59]. - The production (import) volume of Chinese nickel sulfate in July may increase month - on - month [60]. - The production volume of Chinese lithium cobalt oxide in July may increase month - on - month [64]. - The production volume of Chinese lithium manganate in July may increase month - on - month [74]. - The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary precursors has decreased month - on - month. The monthly production cost of producing ternary precursors from purchased raw materials is 79,450 yuan/ton, with negative production profits. The production volume of Chinese ternary precursors in July may increase month - on - month [80][82]. - The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary materials has decreased month - on - month. The monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - grade 5 - series ternary materials is 107,600 yuan/ton, with negative production profits. The inventory of Chinese ternary material factories has increased compared to last week, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production of Chinese ternary materials in July [91][94]. - The production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese energy - storage cells in July may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month; the production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese power cells in July may increase (increase, increase) month - on - month [3]. Investment Strategy - Short - term investors are advised to go long on the main contract with a light position at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [3]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - The investment rating for the urea industry is not explicitly stated in the report [1] - The core view is that urea prices in July are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on, but the subsequent turnaround still depends on exports [1] Group 2: Futures Price - UR01 closed at 1712, up 10 or 0.59% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1716, up 7 or 0.41%; UR09 closed at 1748, up 13 or 0.75% [1] Group 3: Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu showed different changes. Shandong rose by 10 to 1820, Henan remained unchanged at 1810, Hebei decreased by 10 to 1780, Northeast remained unchanged at 1880, and Jiangsu rose by 20 to 1840 [1] Group 4: Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 104, up 3 from the previous day; the spread of 01 - 05 was - 4, up 3 [1] Group 5: Upstream Cost - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 and 820 respectively [1] Group 6: Downstream Price - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Group 7: Trading Strategy - Urea supply pressure is still large with high daily production. Last week, enterprise inventory decreased slightly due to increased port - bound volume, but upstream enterprise inventory is still around 880,000 tons. July's top - dressing demand supports prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. So, it is believed that urea prices in July are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on, with the subsequent turnaround depending on exports [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. Due to national policy - guided capacity clearance and expected expansion of the automotive scale, the prices of domestic lithium carbonate production and imports have risen, but the supply - demand situation remains complex. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On July 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 63,600 yuan/ton, 63,920 yuan/ton, 63,520 yuan/ton, and 63,520 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 213,304 lots, a decrease of 134,425 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous day [1] - **Inventory and Spreads**: The inventory of the near - month to consecutive - one contracts was 15,555 tons, a decrease of 5,481 tons from the previous day; the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 1,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Lithium Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 654 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day. The average prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained mostly unchanged [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The prices of products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and negative electrode materials showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1] Company News - **Yuntu Holdings**: On July 7, 2025, Yuntu Holdings announced that it owns three phosphate mines in Leibo County, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province. The Ajuluogang phosphate mine's 2.9 - million - ton annual mining and beneficiation project started construction in March and is under accelerated construction; the Niuniuzhai East phosphate mine's 4 - million - ton annual mining project is optimizing the mining and beneficiation plan design; the Niuniuzhai West phosphate mine is promoting the "exploration - to - mining" procedures. After production, it will meet the local yellow phosphorus production needs and transport products to production bases in Hubei and Guangxi via waterways [2] - **Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium**: Ganfeng Lithium's project has been officially put into production. Tianqi Lithium's 50,700 - ton wet - brine project in Shijian, Jianglin City may be put into production in October 2020, and the total output will reach 201,000 tons per year [3] - **Other Companies**: Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate drying project may be put into production in January 2022; Zijin Hengyuan's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity may be completed and put into production on January 9, 2021. Some companies' production lines are under maintenance or upgrading, and some projects are in the process of construction or commissioning [3] Production and Supply - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in China in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventories of smelters, traders, and downstream enterprises have increased compared with the previous week [1][3] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The production of lithium hydroxide in China in October may decrease month - on - month. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises in July may increase month - on - month, and the monthly export volume may decrease month - on - month [3][4] - **Phosphoric Acid and Related Products**: The production of phosphoric acid in China has decreased compared with the previous week. The production of lithium iron phosphate in China may increase month - on - month, and the production and export volume of some related products may also increase [3][4] Investment Strategy - Due to the complex supply - demand situation of domestic lithium carbonate, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and persistent geopolitical risks may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking eight consecutive months of increases with a recovery in the pace [1]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is slim, but the expected time points for rate cuts are September, October, or December [1]. Silver - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. Trump's tariff policy remains in effect [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England's key interest rate decreased by 25 basis points in May, and the expectation of rate cuts in August is rising, with 2 - 3 possible rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - For investors, it is recommended to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks. For London gold, focus on support around $3,000 - $3,200 and resistance around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, support around 730 - 750 and resistance around 840 - 900. For London silver, support around $31 - $34 and resistance around $38 - $40; for Shanghai silver, support around 8,300 - 8,500 and resistance around 8,900 - 9,100 [1].

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, along with disruptions in overseas copper production and transportation, are countered by Trump's tariff policies and the traditional off - season of domestic consumption. With the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventory, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly build short positions in the main contract, paying attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,270 yuan, down 460 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 75,314 lots, a decrease of 25,248 lots; the open interest was 204,506 lots, down 11,232 lots; the inventory was 21,682 tons, a decrease of 625 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 615 yuan, down 190 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was - 5 yuan, down 30 yuan; in North China, it was - 170 yuan, down 20 yuan; in East China, it was - 40 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month vs. Far - Month)**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 280 yuan, up 20 yuan; between the first and the second continuous contracts was 150 yuan, down 20 yuan; between the second and the third continuous contracts was 250 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on July 4, 2025, was 9,852 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 97,400 tons; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 95.35 dollars, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 5.77 dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.005 dollars, down 0.19 dollars; the total inventory was 221,456 tons, an increase of 8,285 tons [2]. 2. Industry News - **Domestic**: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system in the Yunnan - Central Nonferrous Recycled Copper Resources Recycling Base successfully produced the first furnace of anode copper. On July 2, the No. 2 anode furnace in the refining workshop of Yuanqu Smelter was put into operation [2]. - **Overseas**: Glencore's PASAR smelter in the Philippines with a leased capacity of 200,000 tons has shut down; Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuned copper concentrator in Namibia has suspended production; Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has reduced production; the Kakula smelter in Congo (Kinshasa) may be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons of cathode copper [4]. 3. Key Information - **Macro**: The US House - version "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over 3 trillion dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected time for rate cuts is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Industry**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The supply of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted, and due to the Sino - US trade dispute, traders are reluctant to buy US steel. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. The production and import of domestic scrap copper in July may change, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be tight. The domestic smelter's monthly inspection capacity may decrease, and the production and export of domestic electrolytic copper may increase [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July due to high finished - product inventory. The operating rates of copper wire and cable, copper strip, copper pipe, and brass rod industries have decreased, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products in these industries has changed accordingly [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience short - term weak fluctuations. The methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are high while downstream comprehensive profits are poor. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and take a wait - and - see attitude for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 in Taicang decreased from 2437.00 yuan/ton to 2435.00 yuan/ton (-0.08%); MA01 in Shandong dropped from 2445.00 yuan/ton to 2422.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); MA05 rose from 2356.00 yuan/ton to 2358.00 yuan/ton (0.08%); MA09 fell from 2399.00 yuan/ton to 2392.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The national average decreased from 2292.50 yuan/ton to 2290.00 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it went down from 2455.00 yuan/ton to 2432.50 yuan/ton (-0.92%); in Shaanxi, it increased from 2090.00 yuan/ton to 2095.00 yuan/ton (0.24%); in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2017.50 yuan/ton to 1995.00 yuan/ton (-1.12%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 decreased from 430.00 yuan/ton to 427.50 yuan/ton (-0.58%); Datong Q5500 dropped from 490.00 yuan/ton to 487.50 yuan/ton (-0.51%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 490.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol in the northwest remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol remained at - 460.00 yuan/ton; MTO in the northwest increased from 308.80 yuan/ton to 377.80 yuan/ton (22.34%); MTO in the East China increased from - 854.07 yuan/ton to - 813.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid increased from 387.96 yuan/ton to 395.94 yuan/ton (2.06%); MTBE decreased from 76.28 yuan/ton to - 10.12 yuan/ton (-113.27%); formaldehyde remained at - 233.60 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2390 yuan/ton, closing at 2392 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 547,156 lots and an open interest of 685,709 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments are priced at 275 - 282 US dollars/ton, with reference negotiations for non - Iranian shipments at +1.6 - 2% and for other Middle - East regions at +1.1 - 2% [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, which is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. Investors are advised to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].