1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The demand side continues to be weak, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in July. There is a small upside potential for the spot and futures prices in the third quarter, but significant price increases lack support. The LH2509 contract is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the short - term [105]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review - **External Market**: The price of the CME lean hog main contract dropped by 3.97% from June 26 to July 3, 2025, but was up 18.45% year - on - year. The total open interest of CME lean hog futures contracts decreased by 1.28% month - on - month but increased by 42.31% year - on - year. The net long positions of futures and options funds decreased by 621 month - on - month but increased by 144,848 year - on - year [7]. - **Domestic Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's live hog main contract rose 2.14% from June 27 to July 4, 2025, but was down 19.84% year - on - year. The average ex - farm price of Henan's outer ternary live hogs increased by 1.68% month - on - month but decreased by 17.99% year - on - year. The basis in Henan weakened [12]. - **Contract Price and Spread**: Last week, the prices of all live hog contracts increased with similar magnitudes. The spread between LH09 and LH11 contracts first rose and then fell, showing an overall upward trend [19]. - **Warehouse Receipts, Volume, and Open Interest**: The number of registered warehouse receipts of COFCO Meat decreased by 375, while that of Dekang Agriculture increased by 75. The trading volume nearly doubled, and the open interest was stable [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory**: The live hog inventory increased slightly month - on - month and was higher year - on - year, with the proportion of standard hogs increasing [28]. - **Sow Prices**: The price of二元sows remained stable, while the price of culled sows increased slightly [33]. - **Sow Inventory**: The inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was relatively high year - on - year, and the national inventory of reproductive sows was 103.56% of the normal level, in the green zone [36]. - **Sow Culling and Slaughter**: The culling volume of reproductive sows increased slightly month - on - month, while the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased [40]. - **Piglet Prices and Sales**: The prices of piglets stopped falling and stabilized. The number of piglet births and sales were at relatively high levels [45][48]. - **Pork Prices**: Pork prices strengthened, and the pig - grain ratio rebounded [53][57]. - **Farming Profits**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising improved, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was at the break - even point [60]. - **Slaughter and Sales**: The proportion of fat hogs at slaughter was high, and the slaughter volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [62][66]. - **Price Spreads and Weights**: The standard - fat price spread was almost zero, and the average slaughter weight was stable [71]. - **Second - Fattening**: The profit of second - fattening rebounded from a low level, and the proportion of second - fattening sales remained stable at a low level. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens increased significantly [76][79]. - **Slaughter and Sales**: The gross margin between live hogs and pork and the price of pork strengthened. The slaughter profit was negative, and the post - slaughter settlement price increased. The slaughter volume decreased due to low enthusiasm among slaughter enterprises [83][86][89]. - **Fresh and Frozen Sales**: The fresh sales volume decreased significantly, the fresh - frozen price spread widened slightly, and the frozen pork storage rate was at a low level [92][95][98]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook - **Supply Side**: Under the "anti - involution" policy, the regulation of live hog production capacity may be tightened. The inventory of reproductive sows is in the green zone. The live hog inventory increased slightly month - on - month and was higher year - on - year. The number of piglet births increased month - on - month, and the price stopped falling. The slaughter volume in July may decrease slightly. The second - fattening profit rebounded from a low level, and the current replenishment enthusiasm is high but may weaken after price increases [105]. - **Demand Side**: The profit of slaughter enterprises is continuously negative, and the enthusiasm for slaughter is low. Affected by seasonality, the terminal sales of pork are poor, and the fresh sales volume has decreased significantly. The slaughter enterprises have a pessimistic outlook on the future, and the frozen pork storage rate is low [105]. - **Price Outlook**: The demand side is weak, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in July. There is a small upside potential for spot and futures prices in the third quarter, but significant price increases lack support. The LH2509 contract is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the short - term [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Weekly Summary - PX showed a weak consolidation trend this week. After digesting the impact of unexpected events, oil prices gave back their premiums, and the support from the cost side for polyester commodities gradually weakened. Although there are still some maintenance plans for PX this month and the social inventory is at a historical low, the overall sentiment in the PX market remains bearish due to insufficient positive factors on the supply side and weakening downstream demand expectations, despite the relatively strong performance of raw materials [9]. - PTA also showed a weak consolidation trend. Although there were unplanned changes in the supply side during the week, they failed to effectively boost prices. The polyester production cuts have been reflected in the decline of the operating data, and the supply - demand pattern of PTA has weakened compared to the previous period. The spread between July and September narrowed rapidly during the week, and the spot basis of PTA dropped quickly. Currently, there is no clear guidance from the fundamentals, and prices continue to fluctuate following the cost [9]. Market Forecast - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East may re - emerge, and Saudi Arabia's production increase will limit the upward movement of oil prices, which are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range. - PX: The supply of PX in China is relatively stable. The maintenance of a 280,000 - ton PX unit in Tianjin has been postponed to July 21, and a 2 - million - ton PX unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is scheduled to shut down this month. The operating status of units in other Asian regions is relatively stable, so the overall supply change is small. - PTA: The officially announced maintenance plans for PTA units are currently limited, and unplanned maintenance is also unable to boost prices. Attention should be paid to whether new maintenance plans will be announced later. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant plans to cut production, and some polyester staple fiber factories also plan to reduce production, which will lead to a decline in the operating load of the polyester industry and have a negative impact on market demand. - Weaving: The terminal operating rate is poor, and demand has entered the off - season. - Overall: PX will continue to show a weak consolidation trend, with an operating range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton; PTA will also show a weak consolidation trend, with an operating range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price Situation PX - **Futures**: The risk premium has been fully digested, and prices have returned to the oscillating range. As of July 7, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,684 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton (-1.65%) compared to June 30. The settlement price on July 7 was 6,674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 152 yuan/ton (-2.23%) compared to June 30 [13][15]. - **Spot**: The trend was weak, and the weekly average price was significantly compressed. From June 30 to July 4, the average basis of the main contract was 142 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,900.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95.20 yuan/ton (-1.36%) compared to the previous period [16][17]. PTA - **Futures**: There is no clear main line in the fundamentals, and prices continue to oscillate. As of July 7, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton (-1.83%) compared to June 30. The settlement price on July 7 was 4,704 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton (-2.52%) compared to June 30 [19][21]. - **Spot**: The overall situation was relatively quiet, mainly involving negotiations among traders, with sporadic replenishment by polyester factories. The average daily trading volume was around 1 - 2 million tons. From June 30 to July 7, the average basis of the main contract was 130 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 630.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 21.6 US dollars/ton (-3.31%) compared to the previous period. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,932 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155.6 yuan/ton (-3.06%) compared to the previous period [22][24]. Device Operation Situation PX Devices - **Domestic**: Multiple PX units in different regions have different operating loads. For example, Ningbo Daxie is operating at 60% load, and some units of Shenghong Refining & Chemical are operating at 85% - 90% load. The maintenance of a 390,000 - ton PX unit in North China has been postponed to late July, with a maintenance duration of two months. The domestic operating rate of PX decreased from 84.75% in the period of June 24 - 30 to 83.00% in the period of July 1 - 7 [29][33]. - **Other Asian Regions**: The operating status of PX units in other Asian regions varies. Some units are operating at a stable load, while some are in the process of maintenance or restart. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia has been shut down since January, and its restart time has been postponed [31]. PTA Devices - This week, the 1.2 - million - ton PTA unit of Ningbo Taihua has been under maintenance since June 10, with the restart time to be determined; the 2 - million - ton unit of Hainan Yisheng will start maintenance on August 1 and is expected to last until November 1; the 2.2 - million - ton PTA unit of Hengli Dalian has been under maintenance since June 19, with the restart time to be determined; the 4.5 - million - ton PTA unit of Fuhai Chuang has been shut down for two months since June 19. The spot liquidity of PTA has increased, and the basis of the spot has weakened. The weekly operating rate has increased by 0.52% [36][37]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is further accelerating the recovery of production. On July 7, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 67.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.82 US dollars/barrel compared to June 30; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 69.58 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.84 US dollars/barrel compared to June 30. The price fluctuations of crude oil are affected by factors such as geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the production increase expectations of OPEC+ [42][44]. - **Naphtha**: The export expectation of Middle East naphtha has recovered, and naphtha has returned to fundamental trading. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 575.22 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit of naphtha was 17.80 US dollars/ton. Due to sufficient supply and relatively stable downstream demand, naphtha prices lack effective support, and its economic efficiency is difficult to recover [49][51]. - **PX Spot**: The highest trading price during the week was 874 US dollars/ton, and the lowest was 839 US dollars/ton. The weekly average CFR price of PX at the main port in China was 849.0 US dollars/ton, a change of -1.27% compared to the previous week; the weekly average FOB price of PX in South Korea was 824.8 US dollars/ton, a change of -1.32% compared to the previous week [52][54]. Supply - **Processing Fees**: The processing fees of PX have slightly declined due to the increased load of overseas units. The weekly average PXN was 269.66 yuan/ton, a change of -5.40% compared to the previous period. The PX - MX spread rebounded after a decline, with a weekly average of 93.9 US dollars/ton. The PTA processing fees are starting to decline in the off - season, with an average spot processing fee of 298.31 yuan/ton from July 1 - 7, compared to 397.42 yuan/ton in the previous week [55][60]. - **Inventory**: As of July 4, the social inventory of PTA was 4.385 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week, with a change in the year - on - year growth rate of 0.04%. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories have decreased. As of July 3, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 3.95 days, and the inventory days of polyester factory raw materials were 7.10 days [65][69]. Demand - **Polyester**: The cost of polyester has decreased, and the weekly average prices of polyester products have declined. For example, the average market prices of POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 7,025 yuan/ton, 8,295 yuan/ton, and 7,250 yuan/ton respectively, a decrease of 2.5%, 1.54%, and 3.07% compared to the previous reporting period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6,738 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton (-1.36%) compared to the previous period. The negotiation range of polyester bottle - chips in the East China region was 5,960 - 6,060 yuan/ton, with a weekly average of 6,044.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% compared to the previous reporting period [71][73]. - **Weaving**: The downstream and terminal businesses have significantly declined since July. The average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated to be 40%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 87.99%, and the average weekly load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.71%. The fabric market is generally in a slump, with most enterprises facing slow sales and increasing inventory pressure. The operating rates of looms in different regions have either decreased or remained stable [79][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the digestion of old - crop corn and tightened grain imports, the corn supply will be tight in the third quarter. However, wheat prices will cap the upside of corn prices, and potential policy - grain auctions are a negative factor. After the production situation becomes clear in September and new - crop corn is listed in October, the far - month contracts C2511 and C2601 may have a slight downward trend, but it's hard to see a trending market like last year [2][136]. - The third - quarter corn futures contracts will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the fourth - quarter contracts may decline slightly [2][136][137]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **CBOT Corn Contracts**: In 2025, from January to February, affected by Brazil's heavy rainfall, Argentina's drought, and strong US corn exports, the CBOT corn futures price rose from 451 cents/bushel on January 3rd to 504.75 cents/bushel on February 21st. Due to tariff policy uncertainties, expected supply increases, and slower export sales, the price dropped to 452.25 cents/bushel at the end of February and early March and then oscillated between 450 - 470 cents/bushel. In April, with the adjustment of the US corn supply - demand balance, the price shifted to the 460 - 490 cents/bushel range. Since May, the price has been on a weakening trend, closing at 411.25 cents/bushel on June 27th. The net long positions of managed funds decreased from 337,454 hands on February 25th to - 164,020 hands on June 10th [8][10]. - **Domestic Corn Futures Market**: From December 2024 to April 2025, supported by the suspension of imported corn auctions and CGSGB purchases, the market was in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality". After April, with the end of grassroots grain sales and low imports, the supply pressure eased, and the market shifted to "consistent reality and expectation". The term structure changed from "near - weak, mid - strong, far - weak" to "near - strong, far - weak". The C2509 - C2511 contract spread oscillated within 50 - 90 yuan/ton. Corn spot prices rose steadily, with the national average price increasing by 15.1% to 2432.35 yuan/ton as of June 30th [11][12][14]. 2. Supply - **Import of Corn and Substitute Grains**: Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have significantly decreased. In May 2025, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. The import of substitute grains also decreased, with a 57.3% year - on - year decrease in May 2025. Due to the Sino - US trade conflict, US corn imports are difficult to recover in the short term [38][39]. - **Wheat Impact**: The 2025 wheat harvest was completed in mid - June. With the launch of the minimum purchase price policy in Henan, Anhui, and Hebei, wheat prices were supported. Currently, the wheat - corn price difference is low, and the proportion and scope of wheat feed substitution are expanding, with an annual feed consumption of about 33 - 35 million tons [43][44][45]. - **Imported Corn Auction**: On July 1, 2025, CGSGB launched its first imported corn directional invitation auction, with a scale of 189,000 tons. The auction was well - received, with a transaction volume of 183,000 tons and an average premium of 103 yuan/ton. A subsequent auction on July 4th with a larger scale may have a certain impact on market sentiment [52][53]. 3. Demand - **Feed Sales**: In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.7 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month due to the narrowing wheat - corn price difference. From January to May, the monthly sales of pig feed increased year - on - year, and the growth is expected to continue [54][55]. - **Corn Deep - processing Enterprises**: In the first half of 2025, affected by losses, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises was low, and the corn consumption from January to June was 30.5783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.84% [69]. - **CGSGB Corn Transactions**: Since late March, CGSGB's corn purchases have basically stagnated, and it has maintained a net rotation - out state. From September last year to now, the net purchase volume is 1.91 million tons [71]. 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Since April 2025, port corn inventories have been decreasing and are now in the normal range. As of June 27th, the inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.73% [76]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: Due to the increasing cost - effectiveness of wheat, the corn inventory of feed enterprises has started to decline. As of June 27th, the available days of corn inventory were 32.59 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.81% [79]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has remained stable. As of June 27th, the inventory was 4.567 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [81]. 5. Corn Starch - **Price Trend**: In the first half of 2025, the price of the Dalian corn starch futures main contract oscillated strongly, with a 11.69% increase as of June 30th. The basis oscillated between 0 - 220 yuan/ton. The corn starch - corn futures 09 - contract spread and the spot spread both decreased [86]. - **Supply and Demand**: The losses of corn starch enterprises have narrowed, production has stabilized, demand has remained stable but decreased year - on - year, and inventory has started to decline since June. It is expected that the price of corn starch will continue to follow the trend of corn in the second half of 2025 [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be relatively loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to the previous week. The report suggests that investors should temporarily wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On July 8, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 65,100 yuan/ton, 64,240 yuan/ton, 63,740 yuan/ton, and 63,740 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases of 1,500 yuan/ton, 320 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 545,405 lots, an increase of 332,101 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 338,034 lots, an increase of 15,500 lots [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,655 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts increased by 1,180 yuan/ton to 860 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 658 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained, domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 57,470 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Some production enterprises have maintenance plans, which may affect production. For example, some lithium carbonate production enterprises in Jiangxi will be under maintenance for 15 - 20 days, potentially affecting 1,000 tons of production. However, some new production capacities are expected to be put into operation, such as the 1,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity of Guangdong Haizhou Lithium Battery may be put into production in July 2025 [2]. - **Demand**: The production volume of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate materials in China in July may increase month - on - month. For example, the first - phase 25,000 - ton project of Hubei Ruipai New Energy Technology may be commissioned at the end of June and reach full production by the end of the year [3][4]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Due to the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed still cutting interest rates, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to take long positions on dips. The report suggests paying attention to the support and resistance levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold futures active contract closed at 776.22 yuan/g, up 4.92 yuan from the previous day; spot Shanghai gold (T+D) closed at 771.51 yuan/g, up 3.71 yuan. COMEX futures active contract closed at 3346.40 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 202,143 lots and an open interest of 310,175 lots. London gold spot closed at 3314.75 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.15 tons to 947.66 tons [1]. - **Important Information**: The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking the 8th consecutive month of increases, with the pace of increase recovering. Trump's first - wave of tax hikes on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, ranging from 25% to 40%, will take effect on August 1st. The EU may be close to an agreement. Although consumer inflation has rebounded significantly, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is almost zero due to the higher - than - expected and previous - value 147,000 new non - farm payrolls in the US in June, but the expected time for rate cuts remains September/October/December [1]. Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver futures active contract closed at 8953.00 yuan/10g, with a trading volume of 261,611 lots and an open interest of 338,144 lots. Spot Shanghai silver (T+D) had a trading volume of 549,594 lots and an open interest of 3,325,506 lots. COMEX futures active contract closed at 36.93 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 202,143 lots and an open interest of 310,175 lots. London silver spot closed at 36.78 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holdings increased to 14,935.15 tons [1]. - **Important Information**: The US House of Representatives' version of the "Great Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars, and the fiscal deficit expansion may exceed 3 trillion dollars. Trump's tariff policy remains in the spotlight [1]. Other Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was at 510.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was at 70.03 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 68.18 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were at 79,270 yuan/ton, LME copper cash was at 9,665 dollars/ton, and Shanghai rebar was at 3,065 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,473.1271, the S&P 500 was at 6,225.5200, the UK FTSE 100 was at 8,806.5300, the French CAC40 was at 7,723.4700, the German DAX was at 24,073.6700, the Nikkei 225 was at 39,587.6800, and the South Korean Composite Index was at 3,114.9500 [1]. Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and Germany (France) in June continued to rise, and the CPI annual rate was close to expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: Cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, and continued to reduce holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The CPI (core CPI) annual rate in May was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The August rate - cut expectation is rising, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: Raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark rate to 0.5%. It may start to reduce quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of interest rate hikes by the end of 2025 [1].

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Amid the traditional consumption off - season in China, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, due to the US imposing tariffs on imported copper leading to inter - market arbitrage trading and disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly test long positions on the main contract. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,620, up 350 from the previous day; trading volume was 61,263 hands, down 14,051; open interest was 207,382 hands, up 2,876; inventory was 19,109 tons, down 2,573. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 79,795, down 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,665, down 119; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 102,500. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.31, down 28.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 10.76, down 16.61. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.2380, up 0.14 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.51, up 0.37; the total inventory was 221,788, up 834 [2]. Important Information - **Macro**: The US Senate - version "bill" was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not significantly affected consumption. The US ADP employment number in August was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected interest - rate cut time is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Upstream**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The departure (arrival) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased). High - quality European scrap copper exports are restricted, and due to Sino - US trade disputes, traders are reluctant to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may increase the economic viability of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. Some copper smelters are affected by supply shortages and have stopped production. Domestic electrolytic copper production in July may increase month - on - month, while imports may be restricted, and the total inventory has increased [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper processing enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of various copper product enterprises has generally declined month - on - month. Affected by Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Company News - Northern Copper Industry (000737) stated that its produced rolled copper foil is an upstream product of the PCB business chain, with a current production capacity of 5,000 tons per year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the relaxation of the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that methanol may experience a short - term weak and volatile trend. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight situation of port spot goods has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in East China spot prices. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500, with a unilateral suggestion to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 8, 2025, MA01 closed at 2420 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2347 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.47%); MA09 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average spot prices in different regions on July 8, 2025, showed declines in most areas. For example, the price in Taicang was 2405 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (-0.72%); in Shandong, it was 2275 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%); in Shaanxi, it was 2070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.19%) [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 15 yuan/ton on July 8, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Binshui Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 427.5 yuan/ton, 487.5 yuan/ton, and 490 yuan/ton respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively on July 8, 2025 [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 8, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 423.40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-2.31%) from the previous day; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO and Downstream Profits**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 418 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.64%); the profit of East China MTO was - 792.07 yuan/ton, up 21.50 yuan/ton (2.64%). Among downstream products, MTBE's profit increased significantly from - 10.12 yuan/ton to 13.64 yuan/ton (234.78%) [1]. 3.4. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 showed a weak decline, opening at 2396 yuan/ton, closing at 2373 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 623,078 lots and an open interest of 694,298 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 272 - 279 US dollars/ton. There are few active fixed - price offers. Some non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future are offered at a +2% premium. For other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price for shipments arriving in the far - future is at a +0.8 - 2% premium, with some factories willing to sell at a +5% premium and buyers willing to purchase at a +0.8 - 0.9% premium [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating lower, closing at 2366 at night. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is suggested to wait and see on a unilateral basis and wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 880,000 tons [1]. - The top - dressing demand in July will support the urea price, so there may be opportunities for low - buying in July. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot make up for it, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 8, compared with July 7, UR01 rose from 1712 yuan/ton to 1723 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR05 rose from 1716 yuan/ton to 1727 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR09 rose from 1748 yuan/ton to 1763 yuan/ton (up 0.86%), and the price in Shanxi rose from 1670 yuan/ton to 1680 yuan/ton (up 0.60%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5023 yuan/ton (down 0.53%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 104 yuan/ton to 93 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1745 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1769 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1737 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1763 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 214,386 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong sideways movement, closing at 1763. There may be low - buying opportunities in July, but attention should be paid to the impact of the change in domestic agricultural demand and export demand on prices [1].