Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The inventory accumulation trend of alumina continues, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is hard to change in the short term. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on October 17, the alumina index fell 1.82% to 2809 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 23,000 lots to 458,000 lots. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US negotiations and the high - start and high - inventory pattern of alumina, the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price was 2815 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 29 yuan/ton [11][24]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 35 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 63,000 tons to 4.639 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the in - plant inventory of alumina plants, the in - transit inventory, and the port inventory increased by 11,000 tons, 0 tons, 23,000 tons, and 29,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of SHFE alumina increased by 45,200 tons to 221,300 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week [11][70][73]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is hard to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12][13]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline this week, with different degrees of decline in different regions. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The alumina index fell this week, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price had a premium over the 11 - contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts was negative [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and due to profit contraction, alumina enterprises' willingness to lower prices increased. With the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline [27]. 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production decreased [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The cumulative imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. From different importing countries, imports from Guinea and Australia had different changes [33][35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons, with a total inventory of 52.27 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. In key regions, the inventory in Shanxi and Henan decreased [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In September 2025, alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. The operating capacity in September was 97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.12% and a month - on - month increase of 2.54% [42][45]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina plants was under pressure. Different regions had different profit situations, with some regions approaching or in a loss state [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import window opened recently, and it is expected that the import volume in September and October will gradually increase, which may further intensify the domestic supply - surplus situation. As of October 17, the Australian FOB price decreased, and the import window was closed [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In September 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% [54]. 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the situation of supply and demand, import and export, and related data in different months from January to December 2025. The supply and demand situation varies in different months, and there are differences in net exports [65]. 6. Inventory The total social inventory of alumina increased this week, and the warehouse receipts of SHFE and the delivery warehouse inventory also increased. The continuous inventory accumulation shows that the supply in the market is relatively abundant [70][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The terminal demand is weak, and macro - level disturbances persist. Iron ore prices are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [11][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The latest global iron ore shipment volume was 32.075 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 715,000 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.31 million tons, a decrease of 949,000 tons. Australian shipments decreased by 636,000 tons to 19.163 million tons, of which those to China dropped by 767,000 tons to 15.845 million tons. Brazilian shipments decreased by 313,000 tons to 8.147 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 31.441 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.683 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 30.458 million tons, an increase of 4.371 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 149.6187 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2079 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2932 million tons, a decrease of 1.222 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.64%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.36%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 72%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points. The scrap steel price in Tangshan was 2,205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week; the PB powder import profit was - 22.84 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.5377 million tons. The pellet inventory was 261,790 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.00323 million tons, a decrease of 46,480 tons. The lump ore inventory was 1.78405 million tons, an increase of 53,750 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 58.6973 million tons, an increase of 893,000 tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 56.84 million tons, an increase of 1.4747 million tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 89.8273 million tons, a decrease of 634,600 tons from the previous week [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The latest volume of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.257 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 665,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.125 million tons, a decrease of 126,000 tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.054 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 807,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 5.013 million tons, an increase of 602,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 6.007 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.429 million tons, a decrease of 223,000 tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume and Domestic Supply: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 30.458 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.371 million tons. In August, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 16.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 622,700 tons. The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.66%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 473,700 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons [59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Production Indicators: The domestic daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [70]. - Consumption Indicators: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1572 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.128 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9735 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179,000 tons [73]. 3.6 Basis As of October 17, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 63.71 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.63% [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the China - US trade war has led to a volatile downward trend in crude oil prices. The overall valuation of styrene is moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side enters a seasonal peak season. After the large - scale downstream production of styrene is launched in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap may increase, and the futures price may reach the bottom [11][13]. - This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference volatility range is (5800 - 6100); for styrene (EB2511), the reference volatility range is (6800 - 7100). The recommended strategy is to wait and see [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Conditions**: The China - US trade war has escalated again, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate downward. The weekly decline of styrene shows (futures > cost > spot), the basis strengthens, the BZN spread rises, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreases [11]. - **Cost**: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China fell by - 3.12%, and the pure benzene operating rate remained high and volatile [11]. - **Supply**: The utilization rate of EB production capacity is 73.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 8.73%, but a decrease of - 7.99% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter, and the supply side may face pressure under the background of high operating rates [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: In August, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 4.412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 13.13% and a year - on - year increase of 8.38%, mainly from the Middle East. The import volume of EB in August was 269,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.77% and a year - on - year increase of 29.29%. The port inventory of pure benzene and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports have been reduced from high levels [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products is 38.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The operating rate of PS is 55.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 2.36%. The operating rate of EPS is 41.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of - 31.28%. The operating rate of ABS is 73.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year increase of 19.09%. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, downstream demand has slightly improved [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of EB is 186,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 6.48%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports is 196,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.67% and a year - on - year increase of 372.36%. The port inventory has been reduced from high levels [12]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with a forecast range of 5800 - 6100 for pure benzene (BZ2603) and 6800 - 7100 for styrene (EB2511) [13]. 02. Futures and Spot Markets - The styrene price has been continuously declining, and multiple charts show the historical trends of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and spreads [16][20][22]. 03. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the historical trends of styrene port inventory, factory inventory, and pure benzene port inventory [37][39]. - **Profit**: The profit of styrene is fluctuating at a low level compared to the same period in history. Charts show the profit trends of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM processes, as well as the production capacity share of the top ten styrene producers [43][48]. 04. Cost Side - **Pure Benzene Industry Chain**: The profit of naphtha has rebounded significantly. Pure benzene has maintained inventory reduction in 2025, and the supply - demand gap will increase quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter. The price difference between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is fluctuating upward, and the inventory of caprolactam plants is oscillating at a high level [55][59][66]. - **Production and Demand**: A table shows the production and demand situation of pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025, including production capacity, production time, and supply - demand gaps [60]. 05. Supply Side - **Production Capacity and Supply - Demand Gap**: The supply - demand gap of styrene will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025. Tables show the production and demand situation of styrene and its downstream products, including production capacity, production time, and supply - demand gaps [106][108]. - **Production and Import - Export**: The styrene production volume is oscillating at a high level compared to the same period. Charts show the historical trends of styrene production, import volume, export volume, and operating rate [114][116][118]. 06. Demand Side - **Downstream 3S Production Capacity**: Charts show the production capacity, output, and growth rate trends of ABS, PS, and EPS [126]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The operating rates of EPS and PS are oscillating at a low level compared to the same period, while the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level. Charts show the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, as well as the inventory situations of downstream products [129][133][135]. - **End - User Demand**: The production volume of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate, and charts show the sales volume, production volume, and inventory trends of household refrigerators and washing machines [157][158][150].

Report Title - Brazil's output exceeds the same period last year, raw sugar breaks through support and falls [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The data on sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil in September are bearish but in line with expectations. Entering the 2025/26 new crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to start crushing production after November, with expectations of increased production in India, Thailand, and China. Coupled with the historically high production in the central-southern region of Brazil, the overall outlook remains bearish, and it is recommended to continue to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the price of raw sugar in the outer market declined. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.53 cents per pound, down 0.57 cents per pound from the previous week, a decrease of 3.54%. The spread between the raw sugar 3 - 5 months fluctuated, reported at 0.5 cents per pound, up 0.02 cents per pound from the previous week. The spread between the London white sugar 3 - 5 months strengthened, reported at $2.1 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous week. The raw - white spread of the March contract fluctuated, reported at $94 per ton, up $1 per ton from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou sugar declined. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5412 yuan per ton, down 84 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.53%. The spot price in Guangxi was reported at 5720 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 312 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan per ton from the previous week. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated, reported at 35 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The profit from spot imports outside the quota increased, reported at 552 yuan per ton, up 28 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry News**: Data released by the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) showed that in the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.858 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; sugar production was 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%; the sugarcane - to - sugar ratio was 51.17%, a year - on - year increase of 3.44 percentage points. As of the second half of September, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 490.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.99%; the cumulative sugar production was 33.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%; the cumulative sugarcane - to - sugar ratio was 52.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.84 percentage points. Data released by the Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that as of the week of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, compared with 83 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.7272 million tons, an increase of 3.3% from 3.6081 million tons in the previous week [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The data on sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in September are bearish but in line with expectations. Entering the 2025/26 new crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers will gradually start crushing production after November. Currently, major northern hemisphere producers such as India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. Coupled with the historically high production in the central - southern region of Brazil, the overall outlook remains bearish, and it is recommended to continue to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis weakened slightly, the monthly spread was weak, the production - sales area spread fluctuated, the raw - white spread changed little, the advantage of raw sugar production expanded slightly, and the outer - market price declined. The overall outlook remains bearish, and it is recommended to continue to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for a single - side trade, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended period within 3 months, the core driving logic being high import supply pressure and expected increased production in the new crushing season, and a recommended rating of level 3, first proposed on August 16, 2025 [11]. 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including those for spot prices and basis, spreads between different spots, internal - external spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads [17][20][25]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - **National Output**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [41]. - **Sugar Imports**: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [44]. - **National Sales**: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [49]. - **National Industrial Inventory**: The monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses are presented through charts [52]. 4. International Market Situation - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugarcane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 through charts [57]. - **India's Output**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented through charts [62]. - **Thailand's Output**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [65]. - **Brazil's Shipment Volume**: The sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports are presented through charts [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The downstream lithium battery industry is in the peak production season of the year, resulting in a temporary supply - demand imbalance with supply less than demand for domestic lithium carbonate. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, and the available spot in the market is tight after the holiday. This week, the exchange warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and lithium prices have moved up, with a short - term possibility of fluctuating in a relatively high range. If strong consumption and the macro - environment resonate, there is potential to break through the upper price limit. Meanwhile, Zangge Lithium Industry has officially obtained the mining license and resumed production, alleviating concerns about domestic resource supply. It is recommended to monitor the fulfillment of supply recovery expectations [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot and Futures Market**: On October 17, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 75,535 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.46%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,750 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of the LC2601 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 75,780 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.95% [12]. - **Supply**: On October 16, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month and a 51.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first nine months increased by 41.7% year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 11,100 tons were exported to China, a 14% month - on - month decrease. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, an 8.5% year - on - year decrease, and 120,900 tons were exported to China, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The reduction in South American exports from September to October alleviated the domestic import pressure [12]. - **Demand**: In September 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were approximately 2.1 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.6% from January to September. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 49.7% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 46.1% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [12]. - **Inventory**: On October 16, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 132,658 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons (1.6%) from the previous week. After the holiday, the warehouse receipts continued to decrease. On October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,686 tons, a 28.1% decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Cost**: On October 17, the quotation of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72%. The supply pressure of hard - rock mines has recently begun to ease, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining companies will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The average price of the spot index of Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate increased by 3.46% this week, and the closing price of the LC2601 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 3.95% [12]. - The average discount of the exchange's standard electric carbon trading market was at par. The net short position of the main contract of the lithium carbonate was approximately 121,000 lots [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 270 yuan [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: On October 16, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month, a 51.7% increase year - on - year, and a 41.7% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year [32]. - **Production by Source**: In September, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 55,950 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous month and a 98.8% increase year - on - year, with a 74.7% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 11,580 tons, a 15.5% decrease from the previous month, with a 16.0% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 9.5% to 11,960 tons, with a 9.1% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 7,770 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous month, with a 22.9% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year [35][38]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 21,845 tons of lithium carbonate, a 57.8% increase from the previous month and a 23.5% increase year - on - year. Among them, 15,608 tons were imported from Chile and 4,253 tons from Argentina. From January to July, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 153,000 tons, a 3.5% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 11,100 tons were exported to China, a 14% month - on - month decrease. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure from September to October [41]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Battery - Related Demand**: The battery sector dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited and weak growth [45]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: In September 2025, global new energy vehicle sales were approximately 2.1 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.6% from January to September. In September, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%. From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 2.324 million, a 26.7% increase year - on - year, and in the United States were 1.063 million, an 8.1% increase year - on - year [12][48][51]. - **Battery Production**: In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% increase from the previous month and a 35.4% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production of power and other batteries was 1,121.9 GWh, a 51.4% increase year - on - year [54]. - **Material Production**: From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [57]. 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: On October 16, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was 132,658 tons, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week. On October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,686 tons, a 28.1% decrease from the previous week [64]. - **Other Inventory Indicators**: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a multi - year low due to export rush [67]. 3.6 Cost Side - **Lithium Concentrate Price**: On October 17, the quotation of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72% [12]. - **Lithium Concentrate Imports**: In August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 471,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year and an 18.3% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 3.85 million tons, the same as the previous year. In August, lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 50% month - on - month, while those from Africa increased by 82.2% month - on - month. From January to August, lithium concentrate imports from Australia increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and those from Africa decreased by 8.8% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has recently begun to ease, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of eggs still has a rebound expectation, but the space may be limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium given by each contract under the expectation of high inventory and weak demand. Only a price increase exceeding expectations can push up the futures price, which requires excessive elimination, low enough prices, and strong enough stocking expectations. Currently, these conditions are not met. Considering that it is the traditional stocking season for eggs, the spot price has limited room to fall further, but there is no strong driving force for a significant increase. Therefore, the futures market is expected to remain in a weak bottoming state, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: After the National Day, egg prices continued to decline due to sufficient supply and heavy rainfall. However, as prices dropped to a low level, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the market circulation accelerated after the weather improved. Egg prices rebounded slightly in the second half of last week. This week, the breeding loss deepened, and the elimination of old chickens accelerated. The average age of chickens remained at a high of 499 days. The prices of large - sized eggs in Heishan, Guantao, and Huilongguan increased, while that in Dongguan decreased. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered after the temperature drop. The market has sufficient large and medium - sized eggs and a slight shortage of small - sized eggs. It is expected that egg prices will rise and then stabilize next week, with a slight increase possible in the future [11]. - **Replenishment and Elimination**: Affected by the continuous low egg prices and breeding losses, the national replenishment volume in September decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, egg prices have been weaker than normal, and due to seasonal factors, the elimination of old chickens has increased significantly. The price of culled chickens has dropped to a multi - year low, and the average age of chickens has further decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive elimination [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared to August and a year - on - year increase of 6% compared to last year's 1.288 billion. Based on previous replenishment, the inventory is expected to continue to increase, peaking at 1.373 billion in November this year, with a slight increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [11]. - **Demand Side**: The pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals is almost over, and post - holiday consumption has become dull. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs have improved. The consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing it before the Spring Festival [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound in November and December. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: After the National Day, egg prices declined and then rebounded slightly. The prices of large - sized eggs in different regions showed different trends. The inventory of laying hens is high, and after the temperature drop, the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered. It is expected that egg prices will rise and then stabilize next week, with a slight increase possible in the future [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: As the spot price declined after the festival, the basis of the futures market returned to a low level, driving the spread to decline [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Due to the weak performance of egg prices during the peak season, the number of old chickens being sold has increased, and the price of culled chickens has dropped significantly. However, the average age of chickens remains at a high of 499 days. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of old - chicken elimination [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment**: In September, the national egg - laying hen replenishment volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, affected by low egg prices and breeding losses [33]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: Since September, due to weak egg prices and seasonal factors, the elimination of old chickens has increased significantly. The price of culled chickens has dropped to a multi - year low, and the average age of chickens has decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive elimination [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected. Based on previous replenishment, the inventory is expected to continue to increase, peaking at 1.373 billion in November this year. Although it will decline later, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - The pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals is almost over, and post - holiday consumption has become dull. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs have improved. The consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing it before the Spring Festival [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has declined month - on - month. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indian and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, and the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia leading to expected decline in exportable volume support the oil price center. The oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - supply and demand, but with a tightening expectation. Before the inventories in sales regions and origin regions are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from sales region demand, a mid - term stable - buying idea can be applied. In the short term, due to the weakening of commodity sentiment caused by the fermentation of the trade war, it is advisable to wait and see [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: This week, the three major oils and fats fluctuated. Foreign capital seats continuously reduced their net long positions in oils and fats, mainly due to the sharp decline in crude oil depressing the valuation of oils and fats. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil improved, it did not exceed expectations, with a year - on - year increase of about 15% in the first 15 days of October, indicating average downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Indonesia's proposal of the B50 plan in 2026, possible increase in export taxes, and implementation of further DMO policies triggered a rebound in the oil market, but the lack of a schedule made the market rally unsustainable [11] - **International Oils and Fats**: The October MPOB monthly report showed that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil accumulated to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. In Indonesia, if production cannot be maintained at a high level in the long term and global oil demand is stable, and considering the upcoming production - reduction season after the fourth quarter, the expectation of low inventory in Indonesia will continue, supporting palm oil prices in the medium and long term. In September, India imported 1.6 million tons of oils and fats, with a stock increase of 140,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 1.46 million tons, slightly lower than last year but still at a good level [11] - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 315,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, rapeseed oil inventory was 150,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 27,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 120,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly downward trend from a high level. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a moderately low level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the inventory - reduction progress. However, due to the high margin required for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips when the market stabilizes. For now, due to the short - term weakening of commodity sentiment caused by the trade war, it is recommended to wait and see [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil futures contracts, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22] 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Exports of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, showing the trends in production and exports over the years [27] - **Production and Exports of Indonesian Palm Oil**: Charts of the monthly production and export volume of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production and export trends [28] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Supply**: Charts of the weekly arrival volume, port inventory of soybeans, and monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are provided, showing the supply situation of these raw materials [29][31] - **Palm - Producing Region Weather**: Charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing regions, along with forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate are presented, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory of Three Major Domestic Oils**: A chart shows the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2021 - 2025, reflecting the inventory trend [40] - **Inventory and Profit of Each Oil**: Charts of the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the coastal spot average crushing profit of rapeseed, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided, showing the profit and inventory situation of each oil [42][44][45] 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing the cost situation of palm oil [50] - **Cost of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed are provided, reflecting the cost of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [53] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Trading Volume**: Charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year are presented, showing the trading volume trends [56] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) are provided, reflecting the profit situation of biodiesel [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The domestic zinc ore apparent inventory has been depleted again, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has declined again, and the growth rate of imported TC of zinc concentrate has slowed down. The total domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the monthly spread of SHFE zinc has remained low; the registered warrants of LME zinc overseas have remained low, and the monthly spread of LME zinc has been high. After the zinc ingot export window opened, the SHFE-LME ratio stabilized. It is expected that SHFE zinc will operate weakly in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.59% at 21,836 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 229,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S fell 6.5 to $2,948/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 224,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 21,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of -45 yuan/ton in Shanghai, -35 yuan/ton in Tianjin, -105 yuan/ton in Guangdong, and a price difference of 60 yuan/ton between Shanghai and Guangdong [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased slightly to 162,700 tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the SHFE was 67,300 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -15 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 13,900 tons. The basis of the cash-3S contract in the overseas market was $137.2/ton, and the 3-15 spread was $69.99/ton. Cross-market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE-LME ratio on the disk was 1.043, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -4,529.7 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $119/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 277,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 614,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was 54.63%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.13%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs in China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non-ferrous metals industries, but does not provide specific text analysis [14][16][19][20]. 3. Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In September 2025, the zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year-on-year change of -10.0% and a month-on-month change of -8.8%. From January to September, the total zinc ore output was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of -3.5%. In August 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 467,300 dry tons, a year-on-year change of 30.8% and a month-on-month change of -6.5%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,501,500 dry tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 43.9%. In August 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 555,100 metal tons, a year-on-year change of 6.4% and a month-on-month change of -2.9%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 4,001,000 metal tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 11.6% [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In September 2025, the zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year-on-year change of 20.2% and a month-on-month change of -4.2%. From January to September, the total zinc ingot output was 5,069,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 8.9%. In August 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 27,900 tons, a year-on-year change of -2.0% and a month-on-month change of 37.2%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 244,300 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of -13.8%. In August 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 654,100 tons, a year-on-year change of 27.1% and a month-on-month change of 5.0%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,713,300 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 6.1% [33][35]. 4. Demand Analysis - Initial Demand: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was 54.63%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.13%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [39]. - Apparent Demand: In August 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 599,600 tons, a year-on-year change of 9.8% and a month-on-month change of 0.6%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 4,570,700 tons, a cumulative year-on-year change of 4.1% [41]. 5. Supply-Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply-Demand Balance: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply-demand difference was a surplus of 54,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply-demand difference was a surplus of 142,600 tons [52]. - Overseas Refined Zinc Supply-Demand Balance: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply-demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply-demand difference was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased slightly to 162,700 tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the SHFE was 67,300 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -15 yuan/ton [60]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 13,900 tons. The basis of the cash-3S contract in the overseas market was $137.2/ton, and the 3-15 spread was $69.99/ton [63]. - Cross-market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE-LME ratio on the disk was 1.043, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -4,529.7 yuan/ton [64]. - Position Analysis: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc has turned slightly net short, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral in the short term [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has led to a volatile downward trend in crude oil prices. Polyolefin registered warrants are at a historically high level for the same period, suppressing the market, and the polyolefin market continues in a contango situation. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the rebound in downstream demand is weaker than in previous years, potentially resulting in a scenario where the peak season is not prosperous [15][17][18] - It is predicted that polyethylene (LL2601) will oscillate in the range of 7200 - 7500, and polypropylene (PP2601) in the range of 7000 - 7300. The recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach [17] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: The Sino-US trade war has escalated again, causing crude oil prices to oscillate downward. In terms of valuation, polyethylene's weekly decline is in the order of futures > spot > cost, while for polypropylene, it is spot > futures > cost. On the cost side, last week, WTI crude oil dropped by -6.84%, Brent crude oil by -6.55%, coal prices rose by 4.58%, methanol by 3.11%, ethylene by -2.36%, and propylene by -3.94%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00%. There is still support on the cost side [15] - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization is 82.45%, a -1.86% decrease from the previous period, a 7.69% increase compared to the same period last year, and a -4.90% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. PP capacity utilization is 77.27%, a -0.68% decrease from the previous period, a -1.29% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a -7.77% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. According to the production plan, there is significant production pressure for polypropylene in the fourth quarter [15] - **Imports and Exports**: In August, domestic PE imports were 95.02 tons, a -14.17% decrease from the previous period and a -22.11% decrease compared to the same period last year. PP imports were 15.96 tons, a -9.91% decrease from the previous period and a -22.23% decrease compared to the same period last year. Import profits have declined, the supply of PE from North America has decreased, and the pressure on the import side has lessened. In August, PE exports were 11.60 tons, a 14.12% increase from the previous period and a 61.83% increase compared to the same period last year. PP exports were 25.02 tons, a 5.99% increase from the previous period and a 32.77% increase compared to the same period last year. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year-on-year [16] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period and a -0.13% decrease compared to the same period last year. The downstream operating rate of PP is 51.80%, a 0.08% increase from the previous period and a 0.12% increase compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polyolefins is lower than in previous years [16] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 52.95 tons, a 8.37% increase in inventory from the previous period and a -1.74% decrease compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 5.03 tons, a -6.83% decrease in inventory. PP production enterprise inventory is 67.87 tons, a -0.40% decrease in inventory from the previous period and a 15.01% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 23.86 tons, a -8.62% decrease in inventory; PP port inventory is 6.79 tons, a -1.16% decrease in inventory. Overall, the inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see approach [17] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **LLDPE**: The closing price of the LLDPE main contract is 6910, a -3.77% change from the previous week; the spot price is 6990, a -2.58% change. Trading volume is 1,241,849 lots, a decrease of 3,297,726 lots from the previous week; open interest is 2,814,881 lots, a decrease of 10,944,309 lots. The basis is 80, an increase of 42 from the previous week; the spread between May and September contracts is -52, an increase of 0.21 [20] - **PP**: The closing price of the PP main contract is 6595, a -4.46% change from the previous week; the spot price is 6625, a -2.50% change. Trading volume is 1,936,771 lots, a decrease of 3,947,414 lots from the previous week; open interest is 3,235,034 lots, a decrease of 12,067,276 lots. The basis is 30, a decrease of 5 from the previous week; the spread between May and September contracts is -24, an increase of 0.33 [20] - **Price Relationship**: The South Korean ethylene plant clearance policy may boost the long - term strengthening of the LL - PP spread [61] 3. Cost Side - **Cost Changes**: Oil - based costs have significantly decreased. Last week, WTI crude oil dropped by -6.84%, Brent crude oil by -6.55%, coal prices rose by 4.58%, methanol by 3.11%, ethylene by -2.36%, and propylene by -3.94%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00% [15] - **LPG Import**: Freight rates for LPG imports have significantly decreased [106] 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Composition**: The raw materials for PE production are mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon (12.00%), coal - based (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [136] - **Production Capacity and Output**: In 2025, a total of 463 tons of polyethylene production capacity has been put into operation, with 40 tons yet to be put into operation. The current PE capacity utilization is 82.45%, a -1.86% decrease from the previous period [142] - **Maintenance Situation**: There are multiple polyethylene plants with maintenance plans, with a total planned maintenance volume of 560.5 tons this month and a return volume of 255 tons [154] 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 52.95 tons, a 8.37% increase in inventory from the previous period and a -1.74% decrease compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 5.03 tons, a -6.83% decrease in inventory [16] - **Imports/Exports**: In August, domestic PE imports were 95.02 tons, a -14.17% decrease from the previous period and a -22.11% decrease compared to the same period last year. Exports were 11.60 tons, a 14.12% increase from the previous period and a 61.83% increase compared to the same period last year [16] 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period and a -0.13% decrease compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polyethylene is lower than in previous years [16] 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - **Production Capacity and Output**: PP capacity utilization is 77.27%, a -0.68% decrease from the previous period, a -1.29% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a -7.77% decrease compared to the average of the past 5 years. According to the production plan, there is significant production pressure for polypropylene in the fourth quarter [15] - **Maintenance Situation**: Not specifically mentioned in the document 8. Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory**: PP production enterprise inventory is 67.87 tons, a -0.40% decrease in inventory from the previous period and a 15.01% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 23.86 tons, a -8.62% decrease in inventory; PP port inventory is 6.79 tons, a -1.16% decrease in inventory. Overall, the inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [16] - **Imports/Exports**: In August, domestic PP imports were 15.96 tons, a -9.91% decrease from the previous period and a -22.23% decrease compared to the same period last year. Exports were 25.02 tons, a 5.99% increase from the previous period and a 32.77% increase compared to the same period last year. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year - on - year [16] 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - The downstream operating rate of PP is 51.80%, a 0.08% increase from the previous period and a 0.12% increase compared to the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, the downstream demand for polypropylene is lower than in previous years [16]

Report Title - Crude Oil Weekly Report 2025/10/18 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although current high - frequency macro factors show extreme bearishness, the fundamental and valuation of crude oil itself are overly undervalued. Geopolitical factors are not completely gone, and the current price is approaching the break - even line of North American heavy and light crude oils (WCS & WTI), so there's no need to be overly pessimistic about oil prices. Three high - frequency signals are awaited to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil: 1. Speculative trading returns to activity. 2. North American production cuts similar to previous instances when the break - even line was reached. 3. Middle - East actions to cut exports and support prices similar to previous ones [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Crude oil declined continuously this week. Amid uncertainties in macro - trade and expectations of geopolitical easing from US - Russia negotiations, the US once claimed that Japan and India would stop buying Russian oil, but all parties were vague due to the economic benefits of Russian oil, thus failing to provide geopolitical premium for crude oil [16]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: OPEC had a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. US shale oil production increased slightly before, and refinery operations maintained a seasonal decline but are about to enter a small demand peak season. The crack spread of refined oil declined, and the monthly spread of crude oil itself was stronger than the performance of the unit price [16]. - **Macro - Politics**: At the macro level, after the US unilaterally created trade conflicts, US President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi had promised to stop buying oil from Russia and would then try to get China to do the same. Multiple Western countries announced the resumption of sanctions on Iran. The US and Russia had a new round of calls, and Russia agreed to a peace talk proposed by the US. Ukraine faced an energy crisis, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies and shadow tankers. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Wait for three high - frequency signals to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil [16]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread, which are all related to WTI oil prices [38]. - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: Such as the euro - zone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast [41]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle - East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [44]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyze the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price [49]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: Include Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI spreads [52]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyze the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and the RB/HO and LGO/RB spreads [59]. - **Crack Spreads**: Cover the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [67]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC Meeting Results**: OPEC and OPEC+ have had a series of production - related decisions since 2023, including production cuts, extensions of production cuts, and production increases [80]. - **OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary**: Include the crude oil production and quota of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC idle crude oil capacity, OPEC & OPEC+ unplanned shutdown capacity, and the crude oil production and quota of OPEC+ 19 countries [81]. - **OPEC 12 - Country Supply**: Provide the crude oil production and export volume dynamic forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc. [89]. - **OPEC+ Major Member Supply**: Include the dynamic forecasts of crude oil export volumes of Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [110]. - **Supply: US** - **US Policies**: The US Treasury announced sanctions on Iran, and there are various statements and policies from US President Trump regarding oil prices, sanctions, and international trade [115]. - **US Supply: Oil Wells & Rigs**: Not detailed in the provided content [117].