Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner. Brazil's cotton planting in 2024 has ended, with a total output of 3.7 million tons and an expected output of 3.95 million tons in 2025, which exerts pressure on foreign cotton. The US trade war and inflation issues, along with China's deflation problem, may impact global cotton consumption. If the situation deteriorates, cotton prices may weaken further in the long - term; if the two countries reach an agreement, the situation may reverse [1]. - PTA is likely to have a short - term rebound. The suspension of tariff issues eases concerns about trade disputes, and there are issues in the Middle East and limited US crude oil production, so oil prices may rise before May Day. Supply - side maintenance and production cuts, along with good downstream polyester开工, lead to a tight market supply and a rise in spot basis [1]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. International crude oil prices are stabilizing, providing cost support. However, due to macro - environmental factors, bullish confidence is insufficient, and prices are expected to be under pressure [2][3]. - Short - fiber is rebounding from a low level. The strengthening of raw material prices and the easing of macro - sentiment support a short - term rebound, but poor terminal orders mean the long - term weakness is difficult to change [4]. - Sugar is in a volatile adjustment. In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but there are expectations of increased production in Brazil's new season. In the domestic market, current inventory supports prices, but future supply pressure may limit the upside of futures prices [5]. - Apples are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Near the May Day holiday, cold - storage shipments are accelerating, inventory is at a five - year low, and prices are rising. However, attention should be paid to the new - season apple's fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Key Information - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy and promote high - quality development, including measures in employment support, foreign trade stability, consumption promotion, effective investment expansion, and creating a good development environment [7]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of April 28, the PTA spot price rose to 4,570 yuan/ton. Before the end of April, the offer for main - port delivery and warehouse receipts was around a premium of 15 or a discount of 2 to 05. In May, the main - port delivery for 09 had a premium of 80 - 140 in transactions. The industry's supply - demand and cost support are good, but the basis weakened in the afternoon [9]. - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate in China reached 80.04%, a significant increase compared to the previous week and the same period last year. Some devices restarted as scheduled [11]. Cotton - On April 28, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. On April 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 12,439 (- 54) sheets [10]. - In March 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased [10]. - Recently, the cotton - growing areas in Argentina have generally cleared up. The picking progress in some main - producing areas is around 24% - 30%, and some areas have started processing, with centralized processing expected to begin in mid - May [10]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 61.93%, with a slight decrease. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased, while that of coal - to - ethylene glycol increased [15]. - China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 549,700 tons, a slight increase. There were both maintenance and restart of devices, and demand in other industries declined slightly [15]. Short - fiber - As of the 24th, the weekly short - fiber production in China was 161,400 tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate increased [15]. - As of the 24th, the average polymerization cost of polyester short - fiber decreased slightly, and the industry's cash flow decreased significantly, with profits shrinking [15]. Sugar - An Indian industry insider expects the country's sugar exports in the 2024/25 season to be 60 - 700,000 tons, lower than the allowed amount [15]. - As of the week of April 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [15]. - It is expected that in 2025, the sugar - beet planting area in Ukraine will decrease by 17% compared to 2024, leading to a significant decline in production and exports [15]. Apple - As of April 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas in China was 3.0998 million tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a near - five - year low [16]. - In Shandong and Shaanxi apple - producing areas, different grades of apple prices are provided [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of oils remains, and the rebound of futures prices is limited. The supply of soybean meal is gradually improving, and the price is oscillating downward [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal: Supply Gradually Improving, Price Oscillating Downward - **Futures and Spot End**: As of April 25, the spot price in East China reached 3,800 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton weekly. The spot basis strengthened significantly, with the basis in North China soaring from 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to over 1,000 yuan/ton. The futures prices of M2505 and M2509 did not show strong upward trends due to delivery logic and expected increases in arrivals and operation rates later [7]. - **Supply End**: The April USDA soybean supply - demand report showed that the US soybean yield remained at 50.7 cents/bushel, and the ending stocks were lowered to 375 million bushels. The estimated planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 83.5 million acres, with a downward trend in production. In South America, Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, putting pressure on prices, while Argentina's production forecast remains at 49 million tons. In China, the supply - demand situation tightened recently due to oil mills' soybean shortages, but the arrival pressure from May to July is high, and the supply will gradually become loose. After September, domestic soybeans will enter a destocking cycle [7]. - **Demand End**: In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. The demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. However, the market is bearish on future prices, and the purchasing sentiment is poor. As of April 18, the national soybean inventory of oil mills increased to 4.2591 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly to 125,500 tons [7]. - **Cost End**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and that of new - crop Brazil soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal before March 2025 is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the cost during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2,730 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is at a high level in the same period of history, ranging from 100 to 200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Summary**: In the short term, the supply - demand tension in some regions remains, and the price decline is limited before the supply pressure arrives. From May to July, as arrivals increase, the price will gradually decline with the accumulation of soybean and soybean meal inventories. The 09 contract is under short - term pressure from arrivals but may be bullish in the long - term due to weather disturbances and tariff - induced increases in import costs [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, go short on the M2509 contract when the price is high, paying attention to the resistance around 3,100 - 3,150 yuan/ton. In the long - term, go long on the 09 contract when the price is low, paying attention to the support around 2,900 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Oils: Supply Pressure Remains, Futures Price Rebound Limited - **Futures and Spot End**: As of the week of April 25, the main 09 contract of palm oil rose 244 yuan/ton to 8,376 yuan/ton, the main 09 contract of soybean oil rose 230 yuan/ton to 7,934 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of rapeseed oil rose 285 yuan/ton to 9,506 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, while the basis of palm oil decreased, and the basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased [81][83]. - **Palm Oil**: In April, the production in Malaysia increased. The international soybean - palm oil price spread turned positive, stimulating imports from China and India. The export volume from April 1 - 25 increased. The inventory increase in Malaysia in April may be small. In China, the import volume in April is expected to be less than 100,000 tons, and the consumption is also low, keeping the inventory below 400,000 tons. However, from May, the arrivals will increase, and the price may decline from May to July [81]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the 24/25 season, Brazil's soybean harvest has reached 90%, and the export volume may exceed 100 million tons. Argentina has also started harvesting. However, the potential increase in the US biodiesel blending standard is beneficial for future soybean demand. The expected decrease in the 25/26 US soybean planting area and planting disruptions support the soybean price. In China, although the soybean arrivals have increased, strict customs inspections have led to shortages in some oil mills before early May. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased to 650,000 tons, but it will accumulate again from May to July. In the long - term, the price may first decline and then rise from July to September [81]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is not affected by US - Canada tariffs, and the demand for crushing and export is strong. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and there may be drought problems in the 25/26 planting season. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 830,000 tons, and the supply pressure in April is large. There are rumors of increased imports of Australian rapeseed, which may slightly ease the future supply shortage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [81]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the three major oils in China have upward momentum due to various factors, but the supply improvement is expected, and the price rebound is limited. In the long - term, the price of soybean and palm oil may decline in the second quarter and then rise due to concerns about the US new - crop soybean planting area and potential weather speculation [81]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious about chasing up the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 7,800 - 8,000, 8,500, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Wait for the price to decline in the second quarter before going long. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong [81].

澳菜籽输华潜力有多大？ 核心观点 由于中国自 3 月 20 日对加拿大菜油和菜粕加征 100%关税，同时对加 菜籽的反倾销调查仍在进行中，导致 2025 年国内对加拿大菜系产品进口并 不积极，后续菜系供应存在缩紧的预期。不过 4 月 15 日我的农产品消息称 中澳已经达成协议，中国买 15 船澳菜籽，包括 4 船 10 月后的新作买船。如 果最终确认澳菜籽重新允许进口，对国内 2025 年菜籽供应偏紧的预期有什 么影响？本文将对此进行分析。 澳大利亚菜籽年产量为 500-600 万吨级，年出口量达 400-500 万吨， 是全球第二大菜籽出口国。出口季节性上，每年 11 月-次年 2 月是出口高 峰，之后出口量一路下降至 9-10 月的最低谷。欧盟、阿联酋、巴基斯坦和 日本是澳大利亚菜籽的四大主要进口国，其中欧盟进口量最巨大（接近 50%），2024 年四国合计进口了 86%的澳菜籽。另一方面，虽然国内一直有 进口澳菜籽但是量非常少。 中国在 2021 年前曾经进口过加菜籽，之后完全停止。不过近期中国解 禁了澳洲大麦和龙虾的进口，后续澳菜籽重新进口的可能性正在愈发高涨。 我们认为在解决了检疫问题以后，只要国内 ...

铜周报：关税风险缓和，基本面支撑铜价 2025-4-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 供给端：铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC持续探底跌破-40美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧性，但炼厂压 力在增大。3月精炼铜产量为124.8万吨，同比增加8.6%，4月电解铜产量同比预计仍有增长。 需求端：3月需求旺季带动了铜材产量如期增长。3月中国铜材产量达212.5万吨，创近几年同期新高。银四最后一周小幅下周面临 五一小长假，下游假期备货需求预计增加。 库存：截至4月24日，SMM全国主流地区铜库存较4月21日下降1.48万吨至18.17万吨，较4月17日下降5.17万吨，实现连续8周周 度去库，目前较年内高位回落了19.53万吨，较去年同期的40.47万吨低22.30万吨。临近五一假期前将有 ...

碳酸锂周报 供应压力仍存，价格延续偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/4/28 需求端：4月整体排产预计环比持平。3月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为118.3GWh，环比增长18.0%，同比增长54.3%。动力和 其他电池合计出口23.0GWh，环比增长8.8%，同比增长75.3%。动力和其他电池销量为115.4GWh，环比增长28.3%，同比增长 64.9%。以旧换新政策出台和政策端新能源车购置税的延期也有望持续支撑中国新能源车市场销量的较快增长。 库存：本周碳酸锂库存呈现累库状态，工厂库存周内增加2860吨至32560吨，市场库存减少3722吨，广期所库存增加2233吨。 ⚫ 策略建议： 从供应端来看，碳酸锂产量稳增，3月产量环比增加24%，近期锂盐厂稳定生产，3月锂精矿进口量环比减少6%，3月锂盐进口环 比增加47%，预计后续南美锂盐进口量保持高位。从需求端来看，受储能和电动车终端增速的带动，下游需求较好，但美国对等关税 政策落地对锂电池出口形成负面 ...

股指可考虑节前防守，国 债短期看好 2025-04-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 核心观点：特朗普：谈成200份协议，美日协议"非常接近" ，关税不太可能再暂缓90天。中共中央政 治局会议：统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策。中国一季度规模 以上工业企业利润由降转增，同比增长0.8%。中国六部门：下调离境退税起退点至200元，现金退税 限额上调至2万元。国家市场监管总局：长和港口交易各方不得采取任何方式规避反垄断审查。特朗普 虚张声势，扰动市场。会议对一季度以来的经济评价是"经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振，高质 量发展扎实推进" ，表明高层对今年以来的经济表现是比较满意的，国内战略定力强，股指或震荡运行， 节前难出重大利好政策，股指较 ...

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-04-28 01 尿素：节前降价收单 等待夏季肥释放 02 甲醇：关注港口供应 或偏强震荡 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：节前降价收单 等待夏季肥释放 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：下游部分MTO装置开工恢复后，甲醇价格小幅反弹。4月25日甲醇09合约收盘价2288元/吨，较上周 上调22元/吨。现货市场太仓甲醇价格2405元/吨，较上周下调8元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端甲醇装置产能利用率85.06%，较上周降低2.31个百分点，周度产量190万吨。近期到港量预 计8.1万吨，无新增到港，关注甲醇到港量恢复情况。成本利润端动力煤市场交易活跃度不高，叠加市场供应充足， 场内暂无利好动力支撑，预计下周动力煤市场价格稳中偏弱运行。利润方面，煤制甲醇周度利润为1 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 避险情绪降温，价格震荡调整 2025/4/28 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 特朗普表示将对中国下调关税，美联储维持独立性，市 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pulp market is currently facing challenges with high port inventories, weak downstream demand, and a shift from peak to off - peak season. Although the domestic consumption is currently poor, due to the large basis, the pulp price is expected to show a low - level oscillating trend [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1走势回顾：4月纸浆震荡走弱 - In April, the pulp price continued the downward trend from March, and the basis expanded to 995 yuan/ton due to the relatively smaller decline in spot prices [8]. 3.2供应端分析：去库进程中断 - The domestic pulp spot price significantly declined in April. The Shandong Yinxing spot price dropped by 100 yuan compared to the end of March, and the Shandong Yingwu price dropped by 260 yuan. The adjustment of broad - leaf pulp was more obvious, and the price difference between needle - leaf and broad - leaf pulp widened to 1950 yuan [12]. - The import quotation of pulp was adjusted. The Arauco Company in Chile kept the price of coniferous pulp Yinxing at 825 US dollars/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 630 US dollars/ton [13]. - In March 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.249 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to March was 9.639 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The import of bleached coniferous pulp in March was 798,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [15]. - The domestic pulp inventory decreased rapidly in the futures market, with a total inventory of 323,937 tons, a decrease of 51,286 tons from the previous month. As of April 18, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports was 2.069 million tons, an increase of 55,000 tons from the previous period [17]. - In March 2025, the inventory of bleached coniferous pulp in Europe was 245,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 24,700 tons. The inventory days were 27 days, the same as the previous month and an increase of 3 days year - on - year [21]. 3.3需求端分析：需求维持弱势 - In March, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail was 5.9%, a significant increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. The nominal growth rate of social consumer goods retail in the first quarter was 5.0%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the fourth quarter of last year. In March, China's export amount was 313.91 billion yuan, higher than the average of the past five years and a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [27]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative output of machine - made paper and cardboard was 38.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The output in March was 14.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the industry's profit continued to decline and recently fell into losses [28]. - The previous price increase of downstream paper products has ended. Currently, due to weak consumption, price increases are difficult, and there may be pressure in the later stage. This week, the price of offset paper dropped by 48 yuan/ton, the price of coated paper dropped by 92 yuan/ton, and the price of white cardboard dropped by 31 yuan/ton [32]. 3.4逻辑与展望：震荡筑底 - The inventory reduction was not smooth in March, and the port inventory is still at a historical high of over 2 million tons. Downstream demand has shifted from peak to off - peak season in April, with no bright spots in paper mill operations. Since February this year, the price difference between coniferous pulp brands and between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp has been widening. Weak demand and expectations have led to a downward trend in pulp prices, but the high basis provides some support [36].

关税影响边际减弱 有色金属回补下跌缺口 有色金属基础周报 2025-04-28 主要品种观点综述 | | | 继欧洲央行降息后，美联储部分官员再发鸽派言论，市场对6月降息预期上升，特朗普政府关税立场对于铜价不利影响有所减弱，受利好驱动，铜 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 价逐步反弹修复前期下跌缺口。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC持续探底跌破-40美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保 | | | | 回补下跌缺口 | 持韧性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受到明显影响，本周去库加快，上期所周末库存减少54858吨，创2003 | | | 铜 | 偏强震荡 | 年以来最大单周降幅。需求旺季带动了铜材产量增长，3月中国铜材产量达212.5万吨，创近几年同期新高，目前尚未看到关税战带来的明显影响。 | 区间交易 | | | 74500-78500 | 下周仍面临假期备货需求，预期去库趋势仍然延续。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口可能受限、节前备库加快去库节奏，基本面仍保 | | | | | 持强劲。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带 ...