铝周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 ◆库存： ◆策略建议： 沪铝：建议观望为主。 氧化铝：建议观望为主。 2025-05-19 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 周度观点 近日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，推动氧化铝价格大涨，但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环 比增加10万吨至8685万吨，全国氧化铝库存324.6万吨，周度环比减少4.2万吨。氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续，市场 处于投产、复产、减产交织状态。山东地区某氧化铝企业150万吨氢氧化铝项目、广西地区某氧化铝企业二期200万吨、北方某大 型氧化铝企业二期两条共320万吨逐步贡献氧化铝产量。需要注意的是，氧化铝企业集中减产及检修，带来库存下降和阶段性提货 困难，贸易商及部分下游对现货需求量增加，近期氧化铝现货价格企稳反弹。电解铝运行产能4412.4万吨，周度环比增加0.5万吨。 四川省内铝企复产基本完成，广元弘昌晟预计本月满产；贵州安顺铝厂剩余6万吨产能仍在复产 ...

碳酸锂周报 成本中枢下移，价格延续弱势 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/19 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比减少205吨至15843吨，3月碳酸锂产量环比增加 24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚 进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口 量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - Defensive waiting; Treasury bonds - Oscillating upward [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - Temporary waiting; Iron ore - Oscillating weakly; Coking coal and coke - Oscillating [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - Cautious trading within a range; Aluminum - Suggested to wait and see; Nickel - Suggested to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - Trading within a range; Gold - Build long positions on dips after sufficient price correction; Silver - Trading within a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - Oscillating; Soda ash - Waiting and seeing; Caustic soda - Oscillating; Rubber - Oscillating weakly; Urea - Oscillating; Methanol - Oscillating; Plastic - Oscillating [1] - **Cotton Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - Oscillating and rebounding; Apple - Oscillating; PTA - Oscillating weakly [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs - Oscillating weakly; Eggs - Weakly trending; Corn - Oscillating strongly; Soybean meal - Oscillating weakly; Oils and fats - Limited rebound, short on rallies [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market analysis for various futures products. It takes into account multiple factors such as international trade relations, economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy impacts. For different futures products, it gives corresponding investment strategies based on their specific market situations, including waiting and seeing, trading within a range, shorting on rallies, and building long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance Index - **Market Situation**: Influenced by events like the US losing its AAA rating, trade tariff concerns, and domestic policy adjustments. It is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Defensive waiting [1][5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: Affected by factors such as short - term capital tightness, large - scale bond issuances, and economic data releases. In the short term, it may oscillate upward, but next week there are many disturbing factors and the market may be slightly weak [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term optimism, oscillating upward [1][5] Black Building Materials Rebar - **Market Situation**: The price was weak last Friday. Macro - economically, Sino - US trade relations improved, and domestic monetary policy was favorable, but the market expects fiscal policy support. Industrially, demand is about to face seasonal weakness, and supply - demand contradictions may gradually emerge. Currently, the price is at a relatively low level, and it is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating [7] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated last week. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is still at a high level. However, the positive sentiment from tariff easing is fading, and domestic demand is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate in a range [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, suggested to wait and see or focus on 9 - 1 arbitrage opportunities [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: Coking coal supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak, with prices under pressure. Coke supply is relatively abundant, and demand is mainly based on rigid needs, with prices in a weak - balance state and expected to oscillate [9][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, neutral waiting and seeing [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Situation**: Global trade tensions have eased, and copper prices have returned to fundamental logic. Supply may decline in the future, and consumption is stable. With low inventory, prices may continue to oscillate strongly at a high level [11]. - **Investment Strategy**: Cautious trading within a range [11] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Alumina production capacity is in a state of mixed changes, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing slightly. Demand is expected to weaken, and the sustainability of price rebounds is to be observed [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Suggested to wait and see [12] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Trade tensions have eased, and the market has adjusted its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Nickel costs are firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, suggested to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14] Tin - **Market Situation**: Production is increasing, and raw material supply is tight. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventories are at a medium level. Price fluctuations are expected to increase [15]. - **Investment Strategy**: Trading within a range, referring to the 06 contract operating range of 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [15] Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations, US economic data, and the Fed's policy stance, prices are expected to oscillate with increased volatility [17]. - **Investment Strategy**: Gold - Build long positions on dips after sufficient price correction; Silver - Trading within a range [1][17] Energy and Chemicals PVC - **Market Situation**: Macro - sentiment has improved after Sino - US trade talks, but demand is still weak due to the real - estate market, and supply is expected to increase. The price is at a low level, and the rebound space is limited [20]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, paying attention to the pressure at 5100 [19] Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand is affected by tariffs and seasonal factors. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short at high levels [23]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, paying attention to the pressure at 2600 [21] Rubber - **Market Situation**: Macro - positive factors are fading, and supply is expected to increase while demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [25]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating weakly, paying attention to the pressure at 15300 [24] Urea - **Market Situation**: Supply is stable, and demand from agricultural fertilizers is about to be released. Exports also have an impact. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating at a high level, paying attention to the support at 1850 [27] Methanol - **Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, and downstream demand has limited short - term carrying capacity. It is greatly affected by the macro - environment and the chemical sector, and is expected to oscillate widely [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wide - range oscillation, referring to the range of 2200 - 2380 [28] Plastic - **Market Situation**: Supply has decreased due to increased maintenance, and demand has both positive and negative factors. The market expectation is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating, referring to the range of 6950 - 7350 and paying attention to the support at 7200 [30] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: Spot prices are firm, but the futures market is affected by insufficient maintenance. Supply is still high, and downstream demand is not optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [31]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating weakly, waiting and seeing [31] Cotton Industry Chain Cotton - **Market Situation**: Global cotton supply and demand are still loose, but Sino - US trade negotiations have made progress, and prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [33]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating and rebounding [32] Apple - **Market Situation**: The post - holiday market is stable, and inventory is low. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, but macro risks need to be noted [33]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating [33] PTA - **Market Situation**: Cost has declined, and although supply and demand are in a state of de - stocking, prices are under pressure due to external factors. It is expected to oscillate weakly [35]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating within the range of 4200 - 4300 [34] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: Supply is increasing and postponed, and demand is weak in the off - season. Prices are under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Weakly oscillating, short on rallies, paying attention to support and resistance levels [36] Eggs - **Market Situation**: Short - term prices are at a low level, and demand may increase before the Dragon Boat Festival, but supply is accumulating. In the long term, supply is expected to increase. It is advisable to short on rallies [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short on rallies, paying attention to the pressure at 3000 for the 06 contract, and taking a bearish view on the 08 and 09 contracts [37] Corn - **Market Situation**: Short - term price increases are limited by supply increases, but there is support below. In the long term, supply and demand are tightening, but the upward space is limited by substitutes. It is advisable to go long on dips [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating at a high level, going long on dips at the lower edge of the range, and paying attention to 7 - 9 positive spreads [39] Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Short - term supply is increasing, and prices are expected to fall. In the long term, costs are increasing, and prices are expected to be strong. It is advisable to short on rallies in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: Oscillating weakly, short on rallies in the short term (before mid - June) for the 09 contract, go long on dips in the long term, paying attention to the support at 2830, and focusing on 9 - 1 positive spreads [40] Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: Affected by factors such as international crude oil prices and supply and demand of various oils and fats, short - term prices are回调, but the decline is limited. In the long term, prices may stop falling and rebound in the third quarter [44]. - **Investment Strategy**: Be cautious about short - selling, pay attention to support levels, and temporarily exit the strategy of widening the spreads between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil 09 contracts [40]

2025-5-19 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 铜周报：中美关税降温，铜价走势仍强 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 上周沪铜偏强震荡，截至上周五收至78140元/吨，周涨幅0.89%。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱。中美日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明互降关税，同时美国通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价有所提振。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 24-03-20 24-03-28 24-04-09 24-04-17 24-04-25 24-05-08 24-05-16 24-05-24 24-06-03 24-06-12 24-06-20 24-06-28 24-07-08 24-07-16 24-07-24 24-08-01 24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of May, the global oil market experienced significant events, and domestic oil prices first declined and then rebounded, with continued differentiation among varieties. The short - term domestic oil market will correct, constrained by factors such as the slump in international crude oil and US soybean oil prices and the expectation of improved supply. However, the macro - improvement brought about by the warming of Sino - US relations and the positive impact of the USDA May report limit the decline. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in the arrival volume of soybeans and palm oil in the second quarter will drag the overall oil market down, and it will stop falling and rebound in the third quarter due to factors such as the decrease in the sown area of new soybean and rapeseed crops in North America and possible weather speculation[1][2][5]. - For trading strategies, the short - term rebound of bean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts for September delivery is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up or short - sell after the rebound ends. For arbitrage, the general trend of the widening spread between bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts for September delivery remains unchanged, but the process of upward repair of the spread will not be smooth, and it is recommended to enter the market in a rolling manner on dips[3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Palm Oil - Short - term: The seasonal production increase season will drive the accumulation of inventory in the producing areas and open the window for domestic purchases. Under the simultaneous improvement of supply and demand at home and abroad, the palm oil contract for September delivery is likely to decline in the second quarter. However, factors such as the possible improvement in export demand after the price decline in the producing areas, the disturbance on the international crude oil and macro - sides will intensify the fluctuations during the decline[6]. - Malaysia: In April, Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased, but the production increase of 21.52% was much larger than the export increase of 9.62%, resulting in a continued rise in the ending inventory to 1870000 tons, higher than market expectations. In the next few months, the production is expected to increase, and the SSPOMA data shows that the production from May 1 - 10 increased by 22.31% month - on - month. After the price decline, export demand is expected to improve, and the strong purchasing willingness of major importing countries may slow down the inventory accumulation speed[7]. - Indonesia: In February, production decreased slightly month - on - month, but exports increased significantly, and the ending inventory dropped to 4140000 tons. From March to April, due to factors such as Ramadan, the rainy season, and the transfer of export demand from Malaysia, the supply was weak and demand was strong, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The precipitation in 2024 may affect the production recovery from May to July 2025, but the abundant precipitation from October to December 2024 is beneficial for the production increase in the third quarter of 2025. However, the B40 plan and the increase in palm oil exports may prevent smooth inventory accumulation[9]. - China: In April, the domestic palm oil market continued to be in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory remaining below 400000 tons. After the price decline in late April, the import profit improved significantly, and a large number of new purchases were made from late April to early May. It is estimated that the arrival volume from May to July will be 228000, 228000, and 12000 tons respectively, and the inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound from May[13]. - Medium - to - long term: Until October 2025 is the traditional production increase season for palm oil. The continuous production increase will put pressure on prices in the second and third quarters. After that, as the producing areas enter the seasonal production decline season, prices will strengthen again[16]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are still weak. Although factors such as the improvement of macro - sentiment, the positive impact of the USDA May report, and the favorable news of the US biodiesel policy stimulate a short - term rebound, the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans from May to July and the normal weather in the early sowing period of new US soybean crops limit the rebound height, and the overall trend is weak and volatile, with the domestic market weaker than the international market[17]. - South America: The 24/25 soybean harvest in South America is a foregone conclusion. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is 218 million tons, an increase of 15.29 million tons year - on - year. The export data of soybeans and soybean products in 2025 have also increased significantly. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the decline in the basis of Brazilian soybeans has weakened the cost support for domestic soybean oil[18]. - US: The USDA May report estimates that the sown area of new US soybean crops in the 25/26 season will decrease by 4.13% year - on - year, and the supply - demand situation will gradually change from loose to tight. However, it is still in the early sowing period, and there is uncertainty. In the short term, there is rainfall in the Midwest in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial for sowing, and there is no opportunity for weather speculation[21]. - Policy: The future development of the US biofuel policy and Sino - US tariff issues needs attention. The market expects an increase in the biodiesel blending volume in 2026, but the actual blending target is uncertain. The extension of the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is also uncertain. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs has a limited impact on soybean purchases in the second quarter but may affect the market in the fourth quarter[22][24]. - China: The domestic soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 654400 tons, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future[26]. - Medium - to - long term: In the third and fourth quarters, the selling pressure of Brazilian soybeans will gradually ease. Possible weather speculation in North America and the possible difficulty in importing US soybeans if the Sino - US trade dispute intensifies again will help the long - term soybean oil price to strengthen and raise the price center[28]. Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil contract for September delivery has been the strongest among the three oils. Due to China's additional 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal and the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the long - term is expected to decline. Coupled with the tight supply - demand situation of old - crop rapeseed in Canada and the possible reduction in new - crop production, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain its strong position. However, without policy support, it is difficult for rapeseed oil to have an independent sharp rise in the second quarter when the overall trend of soybean and palm oil is weak[29]. - Abroad: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is very tight, which has supported the continuous strengthening of the rapeseed oil price since late March. The production has decreased, while domestic consumption and exports have increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped significantly. The sown area of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season is expected to decline, and there is a risk of drought in some areas, which may lead to weather speculation during the sowing period[30]. - China: From January to March, the continuous large - scale import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and the sluggish consumption have led to inventory accumulation. As of May 9, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was as high as 863900 tons. However, due to the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and the anti - dumping investigation, the far - month rapeseed supply is expected to tighten, which will support the price of rapeseed oil in the third and fourth quarters[31].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 防守观望 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： 建议观望 | | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： 观望。 | | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡反弹 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡运行 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of the feed and breeding industry are complex, with different trends and price fluctuations in various products such as live pigs, eggs, oils, soybean meal, and corn. In the short - term, most products face certain downward pressure, while in the long - term, the situation varies by product. [1][2][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Product Live Pigs - On May 16, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, while that in Guangdong remained stable. The supply is expected to increase in the later period as some farmers may accelerate the slaughter rhythm, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened. The demand is limited due to the hot weather and high pork prices. In the long - run, the supply will increase from May - September 2024, and the second - quarter slaughter pressure is still large. The strategy is to be bearish on rallies, with the 07 contract having a pressure range of 13800 - 14000 and a support range of 13200 - 13300; the 09 contract having a pressure range of 14300 - 14500 and a support range of 13600 - 13800. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract. [1] Eggs - On May 16, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the approaching Dragon Boat Festival may support the egg price, but the large new production in May and the non - increasing old chicken culling pressure the price. In the long - run, the supply from June - August 2025 is expected to increase due to high replenishment from February - April 2025. The 06 contract is slightly at a premium, and the strategy is to wait for a rebound to short lightly. The 08 and 09 contracts are bearish in the big picture. [2] Oils - On May 15, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures declined. The Malaysian palm oil has a large inventory build - up pressure due to a large production increase and weak exports in May. The domestic palm oil is expected to have a supply increase from May - June. The US soybean oil is affected by the uncertainty of the biofuel policy and international crude oil price, and the domestic soybean oil is expected to have inventory build - up from May - July. The Canadian rapeseed supply is tightening, but the domestic rapeseed oil has a high inventory. In the short - term, the domestic oils are in a downward trend but limited by positive factors; in the long - term, they may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to be cautious when shorting the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils and to exit the spread - widening strategy for the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil. [2][4][5] Soybean Meal - On May 15, the US soybean price was affected by the decline of US soybean oil. In the short - term, the US soybean has limited upside due to smooth sowing progress and South American bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to decline with the increase of supply. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price may be strong due to increased import costs and supply tightening. The strategy is to be bearish on rallies for the 09 contract before mid - June and bullish in the long - term, and to conduct a long 9 - short 1 spread strategy. [6] Corn - On May 15, the corn price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and that in Shandong Weifang Xingmao increased by 10 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the price increase is limited by the increased supply from traders, but there is support from the strong market sentiment. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive due to reduced production and imports, but the upside space is limited by substitutes. The strategy is to be bullish in general, with the 07 contract oscillating at a high level and the strategy of buying at the lower end of the range, and to conduct a long 7 - short 9 spread strategy. [7] 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of various futures and spot products showed different changes. For example, CBOT soybean decreased by 22.75 cents/bu, while CBOT corn increased by 3.50 cents/bu. [8]

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： ◆ 烧碱： 5 月 15 日受魏桥上调采购价和氧化铝大涨影响，主力 SH09 合约收 2567 元/吨（+37），山东市场主流价 830 元/吨（0），折百 2594 元/吨（0）， 液氯山东-50 元/吨（-100）。5 月 16 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采 购 32%离子膜碱价格上调 15 元/吨，执行出厂 760 元/吨（折百 2375 元/ 吨）。截至 20250515，隆众资讯统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本 企业厂库库存 41.59 万吨(湿吨)，环比上调 7.09%，同比上涨 1.74%。山 东意外检修较多，近期液氯与烧碱价格均反弹。中期看，供应端，减产 装置中下旬陆续恢复，利润尚可、开工高位，新装置有少量投产预期， 库存高位去库不畅，供应同比压力偏大。需求端，关税影响烧碱下游非 铝行业需求（如印染化纤），非铝有补库放缓，五月后步入淡季；氧化 铝投产与降负并存，边际企业亏损减停产增多，需求边际转弱预期，魏 桥的烧碱日均收货量低于日耗，支撑采购价上涨；海外有氧化铝新投产， 烧碱出口存一定支撑，呈现阶段性签单。总的来看，短期供应减量和关 税缓和有支撑 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：区间震荡 现货方面：PT ...

Group 1: Overall Core View - The black industry market is affected by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international relations. Different products in the black industry have different trends [1][3][4] Group 2: Report on Each Product 1. Rebar - On Thursday, rebar futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 132 (+19) [1] - In terms of macro - policies, on May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies, and the Sino - US talks had better - than - expected results. In the industrial aspect, this week, rebar production and apparent demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline. Whether demand has started seasonal decline needs further observation [1] - In terms of valuation, rebar futures prices are still lower than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a low static valuation. In terms of driving factors, the Sino - US trade environment has improved, and the probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short - term is small. The current supply - demand situation is okay, but demand faces seasonal decline pressure. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [1] 2. Iron Ore - On Thursday, due to the good expectations from the Sino - US talks, the market speculated on export rush again, and the futures price rebounded. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton (-5), the Platts 62% index was 102.20 US dollars/ton (-0.60), and the monthly average was 99.67 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 82 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,422.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 118. The total inventory of 45 ports + 247 steel mills was 23,197.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 439.84. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [1] - Steel mills' profitability this week is okay, and the willingness to resume production after blast - furnace maintenance is strong. As it is about to enter the traditional off - season, there is limited room for the high - level hot - metal output to increase further, with a peak - reaching expectation. The positive effect of domestic monetary policy has landed, and the follow - up macro - expectation effect is weakening. It is expected that iron ore will maintain a box - shaped oscillation [1] 3. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in domestic main production areas are generally stable, but some areas have phased production cuts due to safety inspections and sales pressure, and overall supply is relatively loose. In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is suppressed by weak demand, and traders' quotes are under pressure [3] - In terms of demand, the expectation of coke price cuts continues to ferment, downstream coke enterprises maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, the auction market sentiment is weak, and the transaction price of some coal types has declined. The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is not significantly alleviated, and coal mine inventory pressure is emerging. In the short - term, prices may continue to be under pressure [3] 4. Coke - In terms of supply, coke enterprises in main production areas maintain a stable production situation, and some areas continue to limit production due to continuous pressure on profit margins, but overall capacity release is relatively loose. In terms of demand, steel mills continue the low - inventory management mode, and the restocking rhythm is mainly based on rigid demand. High - level hot - metal output supports short - term consumption, but the expectation of seasonal weakening of terminal demand suppresses the willingness to stockpile raw materials [4] - The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts market sentiment, but the expectation of simultaneous decline in domestic and foreign demand for steel products intensifies the negative feedback pressure on the industrial chain. Mainstream steel mills still have a tendency to reduce prices when purchasing raw materials. The coke market is in a weak balance state of strong supply and weak demand, and short - term prices may continue to oscillate within a range [4] Group 3: Industry News - On May 15, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which requires the renovation of old urban communities, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of old blocks, old factories, and urban villages [6] - From January to April 2025, the online retail sales and volume of China's home appliance market (excluding 3C) increased by 9.1% and 1.2% year - on - year respectively, and the offline retail sales and volume increased by 14.8% and 4.5% year - on - year respectively [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to deal with major changes in inflation and interest - rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic [6] - According to Mysteel's May survey on the southward movement of steel from the north, the planned southward movement volume of northeast rebar in May was 360,000 tons, an increase of 142,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The planned southward movement volume of wire rods was 275,000 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month [6] - The Inner Mongolia Industry and Information Technology Department carried out on - site verification of the implementation of the 2024 stepped electricity - price policy and announced the verification results [6]