日度观点: ◆ PVC： 能源化工日报 咨询电话：027-65777102 从业编号：F3051631 投资咨询编号：Z0015756 4 月 29 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4949 元/吨（-40），常州市场价 4760 元/吨（-20），主力基差-189 元/吨（+20），广州市场价 4820 元/吨（-20）， 杭州市场价 4850 元/吨（+20）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2450 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利润高 开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过 剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量 持稳状态，内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏 观主导。目前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强， PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策 力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US Commerce Secretary mentioned progress in some tariff negotiations, boosting US stocks. However, US economic data such as March JOLTS job openings, April consumer confidence index, and March commodity trade deficit were poor. China's President emphasized building a global innovation high - tech hub. With strong domestic strategic determination, the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low, and a defensive approach is recommended [1] Treasury Bond - The first PMI data after the tariff trade war will be released. The previous EPMI decline exceeded the seasonal level. Attention should be paid to whether the April official PMI is significantly weaker than expected. Although the downward trend of interest rates has not reversed, the market has fully priced in the rally, and the odds of going long have decreased after yields reached low levels. Whether yields can break previous lows depends on changes in fundamental data and the entry of allocation funds. Current interest rate trading should focus on the safety margin [2] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.21%, SSE 50 fell 0.35%, CSI 500 rose 0.23%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.70% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.13%, 0.69%, and 0.01% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,724.80 | - 0.2143 | 37,569 | 134,140 | | 2025/04/28 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,621.20 | - 0.3498 | 20,683 | 43,068 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,487.20 | 0.2338 | 34,048 | 95,869 | | 2025/04/28 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,773.60 | 0.7047 | 116,166 | 159,461 | | 2025/04/28 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.120 | 0.2342 | 51,372 | 192,474 | | 2025/04/28 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.070 | 0.1322 | 50,163 | 157,294 | | 2025/04/28 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.980 | 0.6908 | 77,545 | 106,469 | | 2025/04/28 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.332 | 0.0059 | 34,240 | 93,075 | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile. The price of rebar futures is likely to oscillate, and the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets may also show a weak and volatile pattern [1][3][4][5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was weak. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 185 (+5) [1]. - Macroscopically, Trump said he would "significantly reduce" high - tariffs on China on April 22, but China emphasized that no economic and trade negotiations had been carried out. The Politburo meeting on April 25 showed no strong stimulus signals [1]. - Industrially, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production remained stable, and the inventory removal speed was still fast. Steel demand usually declines seasonally in mid - to late May, and the peak season window in the first half of the year is short. There was speculation about steel mill production restrictions last Friday, but no official document has been issued yet [1]. - In terms of valuation, the rebar futures price has fallen to near the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, only higher than the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a relatively low level. In terms of driving factors, the China - US tariff policy is expected to have repeated games, and the probability of large - scale stimulus policies in China in the short term is small. The real supply and demand are acceptable, but tariffs affect exports and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to whether the production restriction policy is implemented [1]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures market oscillated. Trump's statement about possible tariff reduction eased international trade tensions. The pig iron output increased unexpectedly, leading to expectations of a peak and subsequent decline. There were also concerns about the sustainability of exports [1]. - In terms of supply, global shipments were basically the same as last week, with an increase in Australian shipments and a decrease in Brazilian shipments. The port throughput decreased, some berthing pressure was released, and the port inventory increased [1]. - In terms of demand, pig iron output increased significantly, and the daily consumption of imported ore increased. Steel mills' resumption of production accelerated this week, finished product prices were stable, and steel mills' production enthusiasm increased. There were rumors of crude steel production restrictions last weekend, but no specific policy documents were seen. Even if true, the 50 million - ton production restriction is small compared to the total, and it is difficult to form a positive feedback. The iron ore market is in a stage of strong supply and demand but is about to enter the traditional off - season. Considering the possible peak of pig iron output and continued international trade frictions, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the 720 pressure level [1][3]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in major producing areas maintained stable production. Some coal types adjusted their quotes slightly due to inventory pressure, but the overall inventory pressure was controllable, and mainstream coal mines were reluctant to lower prices. Mongolian coal supply was limited due to low customs clearance at the Mongolian border and a sluggish auction market, and the support for port quotes weakened [4]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintained high operating rates, and rigid demand provided some support for coal prices. However, the slow repair of steel mill profits restricted the raw material replenishment space, and the market was skeptical about the sustainability of terminal demand. Downstream pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm was low, and the procurement rhythm of intermediate links slowed down significantly. The coking coal market may continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises and the sustainability of high pig iron output [4]. Coke - In terms of supply, coke enterprises in major producing areas maintained normal production rhythms, and the overall capacity utilization rate remained stable [5]. - In terms of demand, the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces drove pig iron output to remain high, and the replenishment demand was released periodically. However, affected by the expected seasonal weakening of the terminal market, the procurement rhythm became more cautious. Some steel mills preferred stamp - charged coke with a higher cost - performance ratio, and the demand for top - charged coke was significantly differentiated. The market was skeptical about the external demand pressure in May and the resilience of steel demand, and steel mills' resistance to price increases of raw materials increased. The second - round price negotiation was deadlocked. The coke market is expected to oscillate in the short term supported by blast furnace rigid demand, but attention should be paid to the risk of terminal demand falling short of expectations and negative feedback in the industrial chain. Future attention should be paid to changes in blast furnace pig iron output and the digestion rhythm of steel mill raw material inventories [5]. Industrial and Economic News - On April 28, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to issue the list of all projects for the "Two - Key" construction and central budgetary investment in 2025 by the end of June and set up new policy - based financial instruments to solve the problem of insufficient project construction capital [6]. - The "Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition)" was released, with the number of items reduced from 117 to 106. It prohibits new production capacity of steel, coking, cement clinker, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and coal chemical industry in key areas [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted measures for the 2025 Labor Day holiday. Starting from the settlement on April 29, the daily price limit for iron ore futures is 10% and the margin is 12%; for coke, the daily price limit is 9% and the margin remains unchanged; for coking coal, the daily price limit is 9% and the margin is 13% [6]. - As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the balance of personal housing loans was 38 trillion yuan, an increase of about 220 billion yuan, and a year - on - year increase of more than 200 billion yuan compared with the first quarter of last year [6]. - Trump signed an announcement on April 29 allowing a certain degree of compensation for automobile producers assembling cars in the US and importing auto parts. The compensation can offset part of the tariffs on auto parts, with a maximum of 3.75% of the retail price of the car in the first year and 2.5% in the second year. The 25% tariff on imported cars officially took effect on April 3, and the 25% tariff on key auto parts is planned to take effect on May 3 [6]. - The Dongguan Housing and Urban - Rural Development Bureau released a draft for soliciting opinions, encouraging new residential projects obtaining construction permits from May 1, 2025, to implement full - decoration. It also encourages the "sample - first" approach and a "menu - style" full - decoration model [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. In the short - term, most products show a trend of volatile fluctuations, while in the long - term, the supply and price trends of different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, consumption, and policy [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.3 - 14.9 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.2 - 16 yuan/kg, all stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the reduction of supply by large - scale enterprises at the end of the month and the resistance of small farmers support the price, but the increase in supply from secondary fattening and the weak demand limit the price increase. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The overall pig price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. Short - term short positions can be gradually stopped for profit, and short positions can be opened on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options on contracts 07 and 09 and take profit partially [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, and in Beijing 3.39 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the high price restricts the price increase, but the holiday demand and low inventory support the price. After the holiday, the price may be under pressure. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase, but the impact of old chicken culling needs to be noted [2]. - **Strategy**: For contract 06, hold a light position during the May Day holiday. Contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish in the long - term, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2]. Oil - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean oil主力 contract 07 fell 2.26% to 49.32 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil主力 contract 07 fell 0.53% to 3940 ringgit/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: For palm oil, the export increased in April, but the production also increased, and the inventory is expected to rise. In China, the supply and demand are both weak in April, but the supply will increase in May. For soybean oil, the South American supply is large in the second quarter, and the domestic supply will increase in the future. For rapeseed oil, the supply in Canada is tight, and the domestic inventory will gradually decrease [4][5][6]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for contracts 09 of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil, and pay attention to the pressure levels [7]. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1052.5 cents/bushel, and the domestic M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply will increase with the arrival of soybeans and the increase in oil mill operation rate, and the price will decline. In the long - term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price up [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: short on rebounds for contract 09. Long - term: long on dips, and pay attention to the support level. Do long - short spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [7]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 29, the purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2406 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, but the market is optimistic about the future. In the long - term, the production reduction and decrease in imports drive the price up, but the substitutes limit the upside [7]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish in general, wait for dips to go long, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of most futures products showed fluctuations. For example, the CBOT soybean active contract fell 8.75 cents/bushel, the soybean meal主力 contract fell 21 yuan/ton, and the CBOT corn active contract fell 12 cents/bushel [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to move in a range, while government bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5]. - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to move sideways, iron ore is expected to weaken slightly, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7]. - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][12]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move sideways, while soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][20]. - Cotton spinning industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen slightly, and PTA is expected to weaken slightly [1][31]. - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are expected to weaken, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline, and oils and fats are expected to move sideways [1][32]. Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, supply and demand dynamics, and international trade relations [1][5]. - Tariff policies and trade frictions have a significant impact on the market, and investors need to pay attention to the development of these issues [5][7]. - The supply and demand situation of each product is different, and investors need to analyze the specific situation of each product to make investment decisions [7][12]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures are expected to move in a range due to the low probability of major positive policies before the holiday and the need for defensive strategies [5]. - Government bonds are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the low - volatility market may continue until clear policy signals or economic data are released [5]. Black building materials - Rebar is expected to move sideways. Although the current supply - demand situation is acceptable, the impact of tariffs on exports and the seasonal decline in demand may lead to weak market expectations. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs to be observed [7]. - Iron ore is expected to weaken slightly. The increase in iron - water production has led to expectations of a peak and decline, and concerns about the sustainability of exports. The supply and demand are both strong, but it is about to enter the traditional off - season [7]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways. The coking coal market may maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the coke market may maintain a tight supply - demand balance. The focus is on the release of terminal demand and the change of inventory [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to move in a high - level range. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand side is supported by the peak season. However, the upward space is limited by the impact of the trade war on the global economy [12]. - Aluminum is recommended for observation. The supply of the mine end is improving, and the demand is gradually increasing. The price may continue to rebound, but the overall situation needs to be further observed [14]. - Nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies. The supply is excessive, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The focus is on the impact of Indonesian policies and downstream demand [15]. - Tin is recommended for trading within a range. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price may fluctuate greatly [17]. - Gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range. The market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and interest - rate expectations. The price is expected to be in an adjustment state [18]. Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to move sideways. The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term price is affected by macro factors and export and maintenance conditions [20]. - Caustic soda is expected to move sideways. The supply is sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. The focus is on inventory changes and export conditions [21]. - Rubber is expected to move sideways. The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The price is affected by factors such as weather, inventory, and demand [22]. - Urea is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is affected by factors such as production progress and inventory [24]. - Methanol is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and port supply [26]. - Plastic is expected to move sideways. The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by factors such as new capacity, demand, and inventory [28]. - Soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure until sufficient maintenance occurs [28]. Cotton spinning industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply. The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to observe in the near future [30]. - Apples are expected to strengthen slightly. The inventory is low, and the demand is good. The focus is on the fruit - setting situation [30]. - PTA is expected to weaken slightly. The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are not good. The price is under pressure [31]. Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [32]. - Eggs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are both increasing, and the risk of a decline after the May Day holiday needs to be guarded against. The long - term supply pressure is increasing [34]. - Corn is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price is supported, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening, but the upward space is limited by substitutes [35]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline in the short term and rise in the long term. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term cost is increasing and the supply is tightening [37]. - Oils and fats are expected to move sideways. The short - term price has certain upward momentum, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there is no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US. China has strong strategic determination, and the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low. It is advisable to adopt a defensive strategy during the holiday [1] - **Treasury Bond**: During the policy - free window period, there is no clear market guidance, and the bond market is in a calm state. The market is fatigued by the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations under the medium - and long - term logic, and the pricing is gradually weakening. Before clear policy signals or economic data are released, the low - volatility market of the bond market may continue [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.97% [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] Futures Data - On April 28, 2025, detailed data on closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year treasury bond, 5 - year treasury bond, 30 - year treasury bond, and 2 - year treasury bond are provided [9]

黑色产业日报 周一铁矿盘面震荡运行，特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸易紧张 情绪有所缓和。铁水产量出现超预期增长，引发铁水见顶回落预期，同 时叠加后续出口持续性担忧。供给方面，全球发运与上周基本持平，其 中澳洲发运有所回升，巴西发运下降。到疏港量均有回落，部分压港释 放，港口库存有所回升。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，整体进口矿日耗 有所增加。本周钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极性提 高。上周末出现粗钢限产传闻，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，暂以不 实小作文看待。即便属实，五千万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难 以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面铁矿属于供需双强阶段，但即将进入传 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较上周 五上涨 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 180（+15）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日， 特朗普表示将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，不过国内强调目前双 方并未开展任何经贸谈判，另外，4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，没有强刺 激信号；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需下滑、产量持稳，去库速 度仍然较快，通常而言， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with suggested cautious trading within a range. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken. Nickel prices lack upward momentum due to oversupply, with a suggestion to wait and see. Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, with suggested interval trading. [2][3][5][6] Summary by Metal Copper - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE copper main 06 contract dropped 0.08% to 77,580 yuan/ton. After the ECB's interest - rate cut and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the market's expectation of a June interest - rate cut rose, weakening the negative impact of the Trump administration's tariff stance on copper prices. The copper concentrate spot market remained sluggish, with TC continuously hitting new lows. Despite high by - product prices supporting refined copper output, smelters' pressure is increasing. This week, inventory reduction accelerated, with the SHFE weekend inventory decreasing by 54,858 tons, the largest single - week decline since 2003. The peak demand season drove copper product output growth, with China's copper product output reaching 2.125 million tons in March, a new high for the same period in recent years. The upward space of copper prices is limited due to potential demand suppression and the negative impact of the trade war on global economic demand. [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market transaction was light. High premiums supported holders to hold prices, but downstream buyers were cautious. [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,704 tons to 36,884 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 650 tons to 202,800 tons. [16] Aluminum - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE aluminum main 06 contract dropped 0.1% to 19,935 yuan/ton. The supply at the ore end improved, and prices declined. The weekly operating capacity of alumina increased by 150,000 tons to 87.3 million tons, and the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 15,000 tons to 44.089 million tons. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.15% to 62.52%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. However, due to the US tariffs, the upward trend of aluminum prices is difficult to sustain, and prices are expected to oscillate and weaken. [3] - In the spot market, the transaction was light. Holders tried to hold prices in the morning, but downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. In the afternoon, some downstream buyers made pre - holiday low - price purchases, driving sporadic transactions. [8] - The alumina spot market transaction was light, with prices stabilizing. Holders actively sold goods, but downstream electrolytic aluminum plants had limited operating capacity and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,902 tons to 72,590 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 419,575 tons. [16] Nickel - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE nickel main 06 contract dropped 0.83% to 124,690 yuan/ton. The US April Markit composite PMI hit a 16 - month low, and Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs eased, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite. The Indonesian nickel usage tax rate policy was implemented this week, increasing the cost at the ore end. The pure nickel surplus situation remained, and the spot transaction was sluggish. The nickel - iron price was supported by the strong ore end, but the surplus pattern expanded. The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production in April was 1.9075 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The sulfuric acid nickel price was strong due to cost push, and the loss was repaired. Overall, due to the oversupply of nickel, the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4][5] - In the spot market, as nickel prices fell, the willingness to make low - price inquiries and replenish inventory increased. [13] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 168 tons to 24,632 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 201,426 tons. [16] Tin - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE tin main 05 contract dropped 0.63% to 260,590 yuan/ton. The spot supply was tight, supporting prices. In March, China's refined tin output was 18,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5%. The import of tin concentrate in March was 3,466 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42%. Indonesia's refined tin exports in March were 5,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47%. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventory decreased by 409 tons. The tin ore supply is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The price is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to trade within the range of 250,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 06 contract. [6] - In the spot market, downstream inquiries were cautious at the beginning of the week, and overall consumption needs further improvement. [14] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 192 tons to 8,722 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 35 tons to 2,845 tons. [16] Other Metals - Zinc: Spot zinc prices fell. The market was well - supplied due to imported goods. Holders were reluctant to lower prices due to high premiums, while downstream buyers pressured prices for purchases and were pessimistic about the future. [10] - Lead: Spot lead prices fell. As pre - May Day inventory replenishment was coming to an end, the spot transaction was light. [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a situation of insufficient demand and over - capacity, with a bearish outlook but influenced by domestic policies and trade conditions [2]. - The caustic soda market has sufficient supply and limited demand growth, showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. - The rubber market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, remaining in a weak and volatile state [4]. - The urea market has stable supply and upcoming demand release, with prices expected to move within a certain range [6]. - The methanol market has a decrease in domestic supply, a stable downstream demand, and a differentiation in inventory, with a short - term bullish and volatile trend [8]. - The plastic market has large supply pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak market outlook but potential support from tariffs [9]. Summaries by Product PVC - On April 28, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4989 yuan/ton (+28), with different market prices in various regions. Long - term demand is depressed due to the real estate sector, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. Currently, it is macro - dominated, and its performance depends on policies and trade conditions [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 28, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2441 yuan/ton (+2). Last week, supply was sufficient, demand did not improve, and prices declined. The market is currently characterized by low warehouse receipts, high inventory, and limited demand growth, with a weak and volatile trend [3]. Rubber - On April 28, the rubber market was volatile. NR was weak due to upcoming harvest in Thailand, RU had some support from purchases, and BR was the weakest due to crude oil influence. The market is expected to be driven by weak demand and sufficient supply, and its performance is related to policies and tariffs [4]. Urea - The urea main contract rose 1.08% to close at 1781 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, and demand from rice and corn fertilization is expected to be released around May Day. The market is in a state of seasonal inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to move between 1730 - 1850 [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract rose 0.96% to close at 2310 yuan/ton. The device's operating rate decreased, domestic supply shrank, downstream demand was stable, and inventory was differentiated. It is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short - term, with prices in the range of 2200 - 2350 [8]. Plastic - On April 28, the plastic main contract rose 0.20% to close at 7164 yuan/ton. Supply pressure is large, downstream demand is weak, and the market outlook is weak, but tariffs may provide some support [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, causing downward pressure on prices. However, the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, limiting the decline. Egg prices are expected to face a short - term supply - demand imbalance after the May Day holiday, and long - term supply is likely to increase. For oils, short - term prices have upward momentum, but long - term supply increases may lead to price fluctuations. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, while the long - term is strong. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend, but the upside is limited [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 29, the spot price of live pigs in Liaoning was 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.4 - 16 yuan/kg, stable. In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and prices fluctuate frequently. In the long term, from April to September 2024, supply increases, and the second quarter of 2025 still faces large supply pressure. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options for contracts 07 and 09 at high prices [1]. Eggs - On April 29, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. Short - term egg prices are affected by supply - demand factors, and there is a risk of decline after the May Day holiday. Long - term supply is expected to increase. The 06 contract is recommended to be held with a light position during the holiday, and contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish [2]. Oils - On April 29, the US soybean oil main contract rose 1.53% to 50.46 cents/lb, and the Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 0.55% to 4058 ringgit/ton. Palm oil exports increased in April, but production also increased, and inventory is expected to rise. Domestic palm oil will face increased supply in the second quarter. Soybean oil has large supply pressure in the second quarter in China. Rapeseed oil has a tight supply in Canada, and domestic inventory is expected to decrease in the second quarter. Short - term prices are supported, but long - term supply increases may limit the upside [4][5][6]. Soybean Meal - On April 28, the US soybean 07 contract rose 3.25 cents to 1062.5 cents/bu. Short - term prices are expected to decline with increased supply, while long - term prices are expected to rise due to cost increases and weather factors. The 09 contract is recommended to be short - sold in the short term and long - bought in the long term [8]. Corn - On April 28, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2230 yuan/ton, stable; the closing price was 2270 yuan/ton. The short - term spot price is supported, and the futures market fluctuates at a high level. In the long term, supply - demand tightness drives prices up, but the upside is limited. The strategy is to wait for a callback to buy [9]. Futures Market Overview - The report provides the prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products on April 28 - 29, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc [10].