研究员: | 会典 | 陶存辉 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | 从业资格号:F03100815 | 从业资格号:F03144159 | | 投资咨询号:Z0021807 | 投资咨询号:Z0022199 | 张真 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021418 | | 华北企业库存:万 | 华东企业库存:万 | 华中企业库存:万 | 华南企业库存:万 | 西南企业库存:万 | 东北企业库存:万 | 西北企业库存:万 | 全国企业库存:万 | 浮法玻璃日熔:万 | | 周庚产量:万盘箱 周庚装需：万重箱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 重箱 | 重組 | 重箱 | 重箱 | 重複 | 重箱 | 直相 | 直相 | 暁 | | | | 2025-06-06 | 1005. 056 | 1593. 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with short-term pressure on rapeseed oil prices and potential for a rebound in palm oil [3]. - Protein meal: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with soybean meal basis likely to continue to decline [3]. - Corn and starch: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with potential for price increases in the medium term [3][4]. - Pigs: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with a near-term weak and far-term strong pattern [4]. - Natural rubber: Expected to continue its downward trend, with a high impact from commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment [5][7]. - Synthetic rubber: BR market is expected to temporarily stabilize, but with pressure above [8][9]. - Cotton: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in June due to weakening demand [9]. - Sugar: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in the long term, with short-term support around 5,700 yuan/ton [10]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a range-bound operation due to weak supply and demand and positive factors from delivery product valuation correction [10][12]. - Logs: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with opportunities to short near-term contracts or conduct 7-9 reverse spreads [10][12]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides views on the supply and demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product. Overall, the market for most agricultural products is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with some products showing weakening trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and fats**: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in May 2025 is 1.74 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.07%. Due to technical buying, US soybean prices rose on Wednesday, and the three major domestic oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with short-term pressure on rapeseed oil prices and potential for a rebound in palm oil [3]. - **Protein meal**: International soybean trade premiums and discounts are in a state of shock, and the net long position of CFTC has increased month-on-month. Domestically, soybean meal spot prices continue to decline, and soybean imports are expected to increase month-on-month. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with soybean meal basis likely to continue to decline [3]. - **Corn and starch**: The domestic corn market is stable with a slight weakness, and port traders continue to wait and see. In the medium term, the tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with potential for price increases in the medium term [3][4]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing while the demand is weak, and pig prices are running weakly. In the short term, the pressure on farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs is increasing, and the proportion of large pigs sold is increasing. In the long term, the sow production capacity is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with a near-term weak and far-term strong pattern [4]. - **Natural rubber**: There are no new variables, and the market has stabilized. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material prices are dragged down by the futures market. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the finished product inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. The market is expected to continue its downward trend, with a high impact from commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment [5][7]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The market has temporarily stabilized. The price of butadiene has stabilized, and the market is at a historical low. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral, and the reduction of production by some private enterprises may help relieve the pressure on social inventory. The market is expected to temporarily stabilize, but with pressure above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to consumption. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase year-on-year, and the yield may be high. The demand side shows that cotton consumption is relatively rigid, but it has gradually weakened seasonally in June. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in June due to weakening demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The expected supply and demand in the next season are loose, and sugar prices are running weakly. The international market is optimistic about the sugar production in Brazil in the new season, and other major producing countries also have production increase expectations. The domestic market shows high sales and consumption rates and a decrease in industrial inventory. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in the long term, with short-term support around 5,700 yuan/ton [10]. - **Pulp**: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it is mainly in a range-bound operation. The supply side shows a continuous decline in warehouse receipts and positive news from strikes and maintenance. The demand side is in a seasonal off-season, and there is no stockpiling action. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation due to weak supply and demand and positive factors from delivery product valuation correction [10][12]. - **Logs**: The spot market is weak, and the futures market is declining. The supply and demand in the log market have weakened in June, and the short-term arrival pressure continues. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with opportunities to short near-term contracts or conduct 7-9 reverse spreads [10][12]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the variety data monitoring for oils and fats, protein meal, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the given text.

重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收 到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 免责声明:除非另有说明,中信期货有限公司(以下简称"中信期货）拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权,不得发送或 复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证 。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。 | 4 中信期货有限公司 | | 全球铁矿发运数据 | | 2025/6/6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员: | | | | | | 余典 | 陶存辉 | 张真 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | | 从业资格号:F03122523 | 从业资格号:F03099559 | 从业资格号:F03106996 | 正版许可 (2012) 669号 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0019832 | 投资咨询号:Z0020955 | 投资咨询号:Z0021418 | | | | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [1] Key Data Summary Inventory Data (in 10,000 tons) - **National Enterprise Inventory on June 6, 2025**: 162.7, including 79 for light soda ash and 83.7 for heavy soda ash [3] - **Inventory Comparison**: Compared with May 30, 2025, national enterprise inventory increased slightly, light soda ash inventory decreased from 81.83 to 79, and heavy soda ash inventory increased from 80.6 to 83.7 [3] Production and Apparent Consumption Data (in 10,000 tons) - **Total Production on June 6, 2025**: 70.41, with 32.19 for light soda ash and 38.22 for heavy soda ash [3] - **Apparent Consumption on June 6, 2025**: Total apparent consumption was 70.14, light soda ash apparent consumption was 35.02, and heavy soda ash apparent consumption was 35.12 [3] Daily Melting Data (in 10,000 tons) - **Total Daily Melting on June 6, 2025**: 25.56, including 15.68 for float glass and 9.88 for photovoltaic glass [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 5, equity index futures rose, while CGB futures had mixed performance. Most commodities declined, with energy & chemical futures leading the declines [4][6][14][16]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 in May, falling below the critical threshold for the first time since October 2024, while the Caixin China Services PMI rose to 51.1, indicating that the pace of business expansion in the services sector has accelerated [4][6][45][46]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On June 5, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, and most commodities declined, with energy & chemical futures leading the declines [4][6][14][16]. - The top three gainers were fiberboard (up 2.3% with a 226.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), coking coal (up 1.7% with a 3.4% month - on - month increase in open interest), and tin (up 1.5% with a 10.2% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [14][16]. - The top three decliners were aluminium oxide (down 2.9% with a 6.5% month - on - month increase in open interest), urea (down 2.9% with an 11.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), and rapeseed (down 1.8% with a 10.0% month - on - month increase in open interest) [15][16]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On June 5, coking coal increased by 1.7% to 768 yuan/ton, and on June 4, the prices of coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded [20][24]. - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi suspended or reduced production at the end of May and during the Dragon Boat Festival, and Shanxi entered a safety period with several safety accidents, raising market expectations of supply tightening. There were also rumors about Mongolia's coal tax increase and the new "Mineral Resources Law," but the authenticity of these rumors is doubtful, and the overall supply of coking coal is still relatively loose [21][24]. - Demand side: The output of molten iron declined at a high level, terminal steel demand entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of further decline in molten iron output. Coking enterprise profits shrank slightly, coke output declined slightly but remained stable overall. Downstream steel mills controlled inventory, and coking enterprises' raw material restocking enthusiasm declined [22][25]. - Outlook: The supply side is disturbed by rumors, and the basis converges when the valuation is low. The upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space of the market in the later period is expected to be limited, with the pressure level at the warehouse receipt level of 850 - 900 yuan/ton [23][25]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On June 5, aluminum remained at 20075 yuan/ton. Trump's trade protectionist measure of doubling import tariffs on steel and aluminum aggravated global trade tension, and the aluminum price declined from a high level recently [30][33]. - Supply side: The spot price of upstream alumina is firm, electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profits remain at a high level of fluctuation, and the import of electrolytic aluminum in China remains in a loss state, with limited supply growth room [31][33]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has strengthened to some extent. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand relationship of aluminum is in a tight balance, and the general direction of the aluminum price remains fluctuating. It is recommended to buy on dips [32][33]. 1.3.2 Aluminum Oxide - On June 5, aluminiium oxide decreased by 2.9% to 3063 yuan/ton. Spot price increase slows down, and the aluminium oxide market fluctuates [38][40]. - Since May 15, all operations of Shunda (SD) Mining in the AXIS mining area of Guinea have been suspended due to the revocation of the mining license [38][40]. - There is no shortage of ore in the short term. With the repair of the profit of the futures - spot market in the early stage, it is expected that the operating capacity will gradually recover and the inventory inflection point will be seen. The news of the revocation of the mining license in Guinea is repeated, and the market's game for the news is relatively intense [39][40]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 48.3, falling below the critical threshold for the first time since October 2024, with an expected figure of 50.7 and a previous reading of 50.4 [45][46]. - The Caixin China Services PMI for May stood at 51.1, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to April, indicating that the pace of business expansion in the services sector has accelerated [45][46]. - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development have organized the selection of the 2025 central finance - supported urban renewal actions, with a total of 20 cities including Beijing and Tianjin planned to be supported [45]. 2.2 Industry News - The CSRC will step up efforts to study and formulate "Several Opinions on Further Strengthening the Protection of Minority Investors in the Capital Market" to ensure effective investor protection [46]. - The SFC of Hong Kong is considering introducing virtual asset derivatives trading for professional investors and will formulate robust risk management measures [46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trade situation affects demand expectations, and the energy and chemical sector is generally in a weak and volatile state. Macro data shows a weakening economic pattern, and chemical demand is unlikely to perform strongly, with futures prices expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Short - term macro - level positives boost oil prices, but terminal demand is weak. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical factors lead to oil price fluctuations [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [5] Asphalt - **View**: The rise in crude oil drives up the asphalt futures price. However, factors such as OPEC+ production increase, sufficient domestic raw material supply, and high asphalt cracking spread suggest that the current price is overvalued [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price rises following crude oil. But with the increase in heavy - oil supply and the weakening of demand drivers, the supply - demand situation is unfavorable [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following crude oil. It is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low valuation [6] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [6] LPG - **View**: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG is limited. Although the spot price has stabilized, the fundamental supply is loose, and the demand is weak [6][7] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [7] PX - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PX prices decline. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost, and the supply - demand pattern is in a state of game [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [8] PTA - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PTA prices decline. PTA is in a state of inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production cuts [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: High - level volatile in the single - side market [8] Benzene Ethylene - **View**: The current situation is still poor, and benzene ethylene is expected to be in a weakly volatile state. Although the cost side has improved, supply is increasing, and demand is average [8][9] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [9] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: There is an expected reduction in supply, and the near - end is strong. If US ethane exports are restricted, EG supply will decrease, and current demand is acceptable [10] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [10] Short - Fiber - **View**: Terminal demand is low, and it is difficult to expand the processing fee. Terminal demand is the main negative factor, and the short - fiber may not be stronger than raw materials [10][11] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [11] Bottle Chip - **View**: The processing fee is further compressed, and there are no highlights in the situation. The supply pressure is large, and the price follows the raw materials [13] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [13] Methanol - **View**: The port continues to accumulate inventory, and methanol fluctuates. Supply is relatively loose, port inventory is increasing, and the support from downstream olefins is limited [16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [16] Urea - **View**: The market is weak, waiting for the callback opportunity when agricultural demand is released. Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weakening [14][16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [16] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The cost side has some support, but the supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [19] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [19] PP - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. Similar to LLDPE, the cost side has support, but supply is increasing, and demand is average [20][21] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [21] PVC - **View**: Short - term sentiment warms up, and PVC has a weak rebound. Although the market sentiment has improved, the long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, weak demand, and other factors [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [22] Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong current situation but weak expectations, mainly short - selling on rallies. Although the current supply is tight, the supply expectation for the 09 contract is pessimistic [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [22] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) is 5 with a change of 0, WTI (M1 - M2) is 0.92 with a change of - 0.04, etc. [23] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 173 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 93 with a change of 10 [25] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-06-06 股市博弈情绪渐起，债市情绪回暖 股指期货：博弈情绪渐起，但隐忧不可忽视 股指期权：微暖情绪延续，续持备兑 国债期货：央⾏提前公告买断式逆回购操作 股指期货：博弈情绪渐起，但隐忧不可忽视。周四沪指高开回升， 小幅放量1400亿元。市场情绪有所提振，午后博弈渐浓，传周五中美元首 将通话讨论关税，提升关税缓和预期，通信、电子、计算机等高弹性行业 领涨，美容护理、纺服、农林牧渔等防御板块领跌。另一方面，隐忧渐 起，港股新消费出现回调，单边下跌，或是高拥挤开始释放，联动A股美 容护理等映射下跌。同时，深贴水仍然维持，微盘股指数、中证2000创阶 段新高。后市若关税有所进展，资金高拥挤环境下，或交易利空，或交易 利多出尽，导致热点退潮，易触发小微盘超额下降，倒逼中性策略降仓， 引发资金踩踏。主线缺乏，并谨防资金抢跑量化交易拥挤，故操作上， 维持空仓观望。 股指期权：微暖情绪延续，续持备兑。昨日标的市场延续前一日上 涨，仍然保持微暖情绪。值得注意的是，各品种偏度指数普遍回落，资金 防御情绪似乎有所缓和，但大方向上还是以谨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term and maintain a long - term bullish view. Silver follows gold and is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but its elasticity will be suppressed by weak economic data [1][3]. - The upcoming non - farm payroll data on Friday night is more important due to the difference in caliber between ADP employment data and non - farm employment data [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content Key Information - The number of ADP employed people in the US in May increased by 37,000, the smallest increase since March 2023, with an expected increase of 110,000 and a revised previous value of 60,000. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in May was 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year, with an expected value of 52.0 and a previous value of 51.6 [2]. - Musk criticized Trump's new cut plan and spending bill, which proposed to cut $9.4 billion in funds, and said it would increase the government deficit to $2.5 trillion [2]. Price Logic - The price of precious metals was volatile during the day and was slightly boosted at night as the US ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing data were below expectations, and the US dollar weakened [3]. - The reasons for the long - term bullish view on gold are: the continuation of the US tariff path, the mid - term stagflation expectation in the US, the Fed's possible delay in interest rate cuts with limited negative impact, and the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price range to watch is [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price range to watch is [32, 35] [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US May ADP employment growth fell short of expectations and the previous value; OECD cut the global growth forecast for the second time this year, slashing the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. After the China - US tariff relief, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience still needed to be observed [6]. - Domestic macro: Against the backdrop of the continued implementation of the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, the profits and PMI of manufacturing enterprises generally maintained strong resilience. The trade friction easing and policies supported the overall stability of manufacturing production and operation [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, even if Trump's tariffs are blocked, it cannot solve the fundamental deficit problem in the US. In China, the growth - stabilizing policy remains steadfast, and the second - quarter economic growth rate is supported by export resilience and the tariff - easing window period. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: US May ADP employment increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The number of job vacancies in April increased, and the consumer confidence index in May jumped from 85.7 to 98.0, but the labor market improvement was limited [6]. - Domestic: From January to April, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal implementation of established policies [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattened, the economic growth expectation improved, and the stagflation trading cooled down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Focus on local large - consumption hotspots, with market sentiment oscillating [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility declined continuously, and cautious covered call strategies were recommended, with the market oscillating [8]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the market oscillated [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the better - than - expected progress of China - US negotiations, precious metals continued to adjust in the short term, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention was paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Pessimistic demand expectations and a downward - moving cost support, with the market oscillating [8]. - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased, and the price oscillated [8]. - Coke: As the off - season deepened, there was still an expectation of price cuts, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Coking coal: Upstream inventory accumulation intensified, and the price remained weak, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and rising [8]. - Alumina: The event of mining license revocation was not yet finalized, and the alumina contract oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Aluminum: With the easing of trade tensions, the aluminum price oscillated strongly [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure persisted, and attention was paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances, with the market oscillating [11]. - LPG: Demand remained weak, and PG was in short - term bottom - finishing, with the market oscillating [11]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price was overestimated and awaited a decline [11]. - Methanol: Coal prices temporarily stabilized, and methanol oscillated [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils: There was an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, but rapeseed oil still performed weakly, with the market oscillating [11]. - Protein meal: The spot market sentiment cooled down, and the contract price followed the correction, with the market oscillating [11]. - Corn/Starch: The trading was dull, and the futures price oscillated [11]. - Pork: The supply for slaughter increased, and the pork price continued to fall, with the market oscillating and falling [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [5][9][16] - Specific product ratings: - Steel: oscillating [7] - Iron ore: oscillating [7][9] - Scrap steel: oscillating [8] - Coke: oscillating weakly [8][10] - Coking coal: oscillating weakly [11][13] - Glass: oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: oscillating weakly [12][14] - Ferrosilicon: oscillating [15][16] - Silicomanganese: oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction in the coking coal market has increased, and the prices of the black series have rebounded as a whole. However, due to the approaching off - season of domestic construction and manufacturing industries and the under - expected "rush for exports", the demand is difficult to increase, so the rebound height is limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy orientation [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Black Building Materials Market - **Supply and demand situation**: The domestic demand is seasonally weakening, and the "rush for exports" in the manufacturing industry is under - expected. The off - season trend remains unchanged. Electric furnaces and some blast furnaces have started to make losses, and the molten iron is expected to decline, but the overall profitability provides some support to the cost side [2][3][5] - **Rebound driver**: Low valuation combined with news speculation brings rebound drive, but the height is limited [2][3][5] 3.2 Specific Product Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - **Core logic**: The prices of raw materials rebounded, but the fundamentals changed little. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and there are still expectations of tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand expectation is still weak. The molten iron is at a high level, and the steel output has increased. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week, and the inventory has decreased, but the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand suppress the futures price [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved this week, but the expectation is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Core logic**: The overseas supply increment is lower than expected, the cumulative annual shipment has decreased year - on - year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down. The steel enterprises' profitability and order status are still good, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small. Affected by the coking coal news, the iron ore price has also increased slightly [3][7] - **Outlook**: If the molten iron can stop falling around 240,000 tons per day as expected and the macro sentiment warms up, the price is expected to continue to rise, but the upside space is limited, and the 09 contract will oscillate in a wide range [7] 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - **Core logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume is low, and the electric furnace valley - electricity is in a loss state. The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded slightly, and the total inventory has decreased slightly. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has decreased. The inventory in the factory has increased slightly [8] - **Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace valley - electricity loss has intensified. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [8] 3.2.4 Coke - **Core logic**: The expectation of coking coal supply tightening has increased, but the actual supply - demand remains loose. The supply of coke is stable, but the inventory has accumulated. The demand is weakening, and the cost support is insufficient [8][10] - **Outlook**: The coking coal price is continuously falling, and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the short - term upward trend of the futures price will be difficult to sustain [10] 3.2.5 Coking Coal - **Core logic**: The expectation of supply tightening has increased due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase. However, the actual supply is still loose, the demand is expected to decline, and the upstream inventory pressure is increasing [4][11] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of coking coal remains loose, and the high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [11] 3.2.6 Glass - **Core logic**: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, the deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. The daily melting volume is stable, and the price is low, which inhibits the resumption of production. The inventory in the upstream is expected to increase, and the inventory in the middle reaches has decreased. The futures price oscillates due to news and sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The price cut of Hubei's spot goods leads the futures price to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the price - cut range of Hubei's manufacturers, and the short - term view is oscillating weakly [12] 3.2.7 Soda Ash - **Core logic**: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by the coal market news, the price has fluctuated, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [12][14] - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [14] 3.2.8 Ferrosilicon - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of ferrosilicon has rebounded from a low level. The supply has increased slightly, but the demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is cautious [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The cost may still have a drag effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel procurement and production situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] 3.2.9 Silicomanganese - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of silicomanganese has rebounded from a low level. The cost is weakly stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [14] - **Outlook**: The supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand is becoming looser. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell due to cost inversion. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]