1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "oscillation" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures continued their moderate upward trend, influenced by factors such as expectations of real - estate policy implementation, strengthened anti - involution and supply - side expectations, and the high - dividend characteristics of banks and insurance attracting long - term funds. The short - term upside is related to the sustainability of the large - finance sector [6]. - Stock index options maintained a cautious outlook. Although the underlying assets performed strongly, the market did not see large - scale chasing trades, and investor sentiment became more cautious. The recommended operation is to focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. - Treasury bond futures had weak sentiment. The market was pressured by the strong performance of the equity market and the tightening of the capital market. With potential capital fluctuations in the future, the market should be dealt with from an oscillation perspective [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Performance Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 12.82 points, - 11.53 points, - 24.25 points, and - 31.37 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.58 points, - 1.41 points, - 0.76 points, and 0.30 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 18.0 points, 3.4 points, 54.4 points, and 71.2 points, with month - on - month changes of 2.8 points, - 2.6 points, 1.0 points, and 1.4 points. The total open interest changes were 11835 lots, 9632 lots, 5291 lots, and 11313 lots [6]. - **Logic**: The market continued its upward trend, with real estate, insurance, coal, and oil and gas leading the gains. The short - term upside depends on the large - finance sector [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6]. Stock Index Options - **Logic**: The underlying assets were strong, but the trading volume changed little, and the volatility increased slightly. Investor sentiment became more cautious. [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Performance Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts were 77570 lots, 65698 lots, 42333 lots, and 107326 lots respectively, with daily changes of 18031 lots, 19470 lots, 7862 lots, and 33059 lots. The open interests were 202427 lots, 158575 lots, 115251 lots, and 119369 lots, with daily changes of - 1254 lots, 1095 lots, - 144 lots, and 418 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market declined due to the strong equity market and tightened capital. Future capital fluctuations need attention, but there may be value in entering the market after the recent adjustment [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillation view. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium - term has higher odds [7] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual retail sales growth rate in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast of 1.2% [9]. - On July 9, 2025, China's CPI annual rate in June was 0.1%, with a previous value of - 0.1% and a forecast of 0%; the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%, with a previous value of - 3.3% and a forecast of - 3.2% [9] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The latest Fed meeting minutes showed that some participants were willing to consider lowering the policy interest rate if data met expectations, while others thought the federal funds rate might not be lowered this year [9]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals such as antimony and gallium, and will also review and approve legal export license applications [10] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [11][15][27]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-11 初申失业金人数下降，金价上行受阻 ⾦价连续第⼆天上涨，⽬前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不⾜。 美元⾛软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注，为⾦价提 供⽀撑。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普周三向七个小型贸易伙伴发出了最终关税通知， 与此同时，美国政府与其最大贸易伙伴欧盟距离达成协议更近一步。 2）布鲁塞尔正在与美国方面讨论一系列措施，旨在保护欧盟汽车产 业免受美国高额进口关税的影响。这些措施包括削减关税、设定进口 配额，以及对欧盟汽车制造商对美出口提供抵免。 3）俄罗斯国防部称："俄罗斯联邦武装部队使用高精度远程武器和 无人机对基辅的军工企业和军用机场基础设施实施了集群打击。" 4）美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数 22.7万人，预期23.5万人， 前值由23.3万人修正为23.2万人。 价格逻辑： 金价连续第二天上涨，目前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不 足。美元走软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注， 为金价提供支撑。同时，全球贸易紧张局势也推动投资者涌入黄金这 一避 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/10 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China CPI rose 0.1% YoY in June, PPI dropped 3.6% YoY in June. Futures Pri ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term price of the black building materials industry is expected to be "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction is strengthened, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Frequent macro - level positive factors combined with a good fundamental situation lead to a short - term strong - biased price trend in the black building materials industry [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly volume - pushing, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - In the supply side, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but there are still regional disturbances, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the daily customs clearance at the port has remained above 800 vehicles in recent days, and the pre - festival stocking sentiment is evident. In the demand side, the coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. The downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3] Alloys - **Manganese Alloy**: The manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has slightly increased, and there is still room for the ore price to decline in the future. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which makes it more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the silicon iron price is insufficient, but due to the continuous loss in the industry, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [3][6] Glass - In the demand side, the demand in the off - season is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak. In the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and a production line is planned to resume production, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has increased, and the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate [12][13] Soda Ash - The supply - side over - capacity situation has not changed, and the long - term suppression still exists. The production is at a high level, and the supply pressure remains. In the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash is weak, with manufacturers continuously reducing prices. The market is affected by sentiment, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The short - term outlook is sideways, and the long - term price center is expected to decline [6][13] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamental contradiction is limited, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, the pressure on steel exports shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward. The demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and it is expected to oscillate after the macro - level sentiment cools down [9] - **Coke**: The cost support is strengthening, and the expectation of price increase is growing. The current supply - demand pattern has further improved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is high, and both the spot and futures prices are strengthening. The current fundamental supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Silicon Manganese**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship is currently healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, making it difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the price is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [12][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a long - term downward bias [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is influenced by factors such as optimistic overseas biodiesel demand, good growth of US soybeans, and reduced marginal production pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June. It is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. - The protein meal market is a mix of long and short factors. US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [9]. - The corn market has local weakness in spot prices, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels. US corn is expected to continue its downward trend [10][11]. - The hog market has short - term positive sentiment due to macro - regulation, but there is supply pressure in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to inventory rhythm changes and supply - side adjustments [11]. - The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is currently in a state where supply has an incremental expectation but demand has a decreasing expectation, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline in the third quarter [13]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. - The cotton market has an expected increase in production in the new season, and the demand is in the off - season. The current commercial inventory is low, so the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines, and the upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - The sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the new season, with a downward driving force for sugar prices in the long term and an oscillating trend in the short term [16]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand situation, but the absolute valuation is not high. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [17]. - The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The medium - term market is expected to operate in the range of 760 - 830 [18][19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Tuesday, while US soybean oil oscillated slightly upward. Domestic oils showed oscillating differentiation, with palm oil being strong and rapeseed oil and soybean oil being weak. The market is concerned about US foreign trade negotiations and the EIA's downward adjustment of the US crude oil production forecast for 2025. US soybeans are growing well, and the demand for US soybean oil in US biodiesel is expected to increase. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio. The import volume of domestic soybeans is large, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia in June is limited, and the export is expected to be good. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating in the near future, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. US soybeans are growing well, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand for downstream replenishment is insufficient, but the long - term consumption of soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips. One can buy and hold at around 2900 [9]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Logic**: Futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the bearish sentiment has been released. The number of waiting vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement price of terminal grain - using enterprises has been lowered. The import of corn by auction has a certain turnover rate, and the supply of wheat and imported corn is increasing. US corn is in good condition, but speculative funds are selling [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of corn and the substitution of wheat [10][11]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - regulation has brought positive sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter has been partially released. In the medium and long term, the supply is still under pressure due to sufficient sows and increasing piglet births. The price of fat pigs has decreased, and the inventory situation is divided [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply in Asian producing areas is affected by the rainy season, and the arrival of ships in July and August is expected to be less. The demand of some tire enterprises has recovered, but the long - term demand is expected to be weak. There may be inventory - reduction trading in the third quarter, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline [13]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide guidance, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures rose rapidly due to a refinery fire, but the refinery does not produce BR delivery products. The butadiene price has been falling, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although there is some support for the market, the overall performance is weak [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: There is an expected increase in cotton production in China and other major producing countries in the new season. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory of textile products is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level, and the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines. The upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The supply of the sugar market is expected to be loose in the new season. The production of Brazilian sugar may not meet expectations, and the monsoon in India is conducive to sugarcane growth. The domestic sugar market is in the pure - sales period, with a high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The import of sugar is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will gradually appear [16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures have rebounded slightly, but the spot market is weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high European port inventories, low monthly US - dollar prices, and weak downstream paper product sales. However, the absolute valuation of pulp is not high, and there is a risk in short - selling [17]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the cost of both sellers and buyers in the delivery process has increased. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation has increased, and the supply reduction expectation in July and August is weakened [18][19]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term and oscillate in the range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists various varieties for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [21][40][53]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for different trends, including "strong", "oscillating with a slight upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a slight downward bias", and "weak", with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170].

Report Summary Core View - In the week ending July 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels, continuing the upward trend from the previous period. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.9% to 94.7%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day but remained at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The single - week crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day, reaching the lowest level since the week of May 9. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the production decline. Gasoline inventories declined from a high level, diesel inventories continued to decline against the seasonal trend, and the apparent demand for refined oil products increased. The seasonal accumulation of total crude oil and petroleum product inventories has not stopped, and the single - week data has limited indication [4]. Data Summary - **Inventory Changes (Unit: million barrels)**: US commercial crude oil inventory change was +7.07 (previous value: +3.845); Cushing crude oil inventory change was +0.464 (previous value: -1.493); strategic petroleum inventory change was +0.238 (previous value: +0.239); gasoline inventory change was -2.658 (previous value: +4.188); diesel inventory change was -0.825 (previous value: -1.71); jet fuel inventory change was -0.909 (previous value: +0.631); fuel oil inventory change was -0.453 (previous value: -0.389); crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) was +6.411 (previous value: +9.361) [6]. - **Production and Demand (Unit: thousand barrels per day)**: US crude oil production was 13,385 (previous value: 13,433); refined oil apparent demand was 20,863 (previous value: 20,487); gasoline apparent demand was 9,159 (previous value: 8,640); diesel apparent demand was 3,668 (previous value: 4,043); crude oil imports were 6,013 (previous value: 6,919); crude oil exports were 2,757 (previous value: 2,305); refinery crude oil processing volume was 17,006 (previous value: 17,105); refinery utilization rate was 94.7% (previous value: 94.9%) [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of different products [3][5][10] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international diesel futures continue to be strong, and the downstream performance is eye - catching, providing support for crude oil prices. The overall energy and chemical market is expected to oscillate, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][3] - Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound due to the continuous strength of crude oil prices and the unfulfilled expectation of a decline in refined oil crack spreads, but the downstream and terminal industries do not support a trend - upward movement [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Diesel remains strong, with the immediate spread of European ICE diesel reaching its highest level since 2022 and the US diesel crack spread rising. The low inventory in the US and Europe, combined with refinery outages and good demand, contributes to the strength of refined oil. The global crude oil inventory has not increased further since June [1] - Chemical product basis has stabilized slightly after a significant decline. Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound, but the downstream does not support a long - term upward trend. The spread between pure benzene and styrene is still narrowing [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - US crude oil commercial inventory increased significantly on a weekly basis, and oil prices remained stable. On July 9, EIA reported that US gasoline demand was still very strong. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and diesel remains strong. OPEC + may increase production in September, and the US sanctions on Iran remain unchanged [5][8] Asphalt - Asphalt futures prices face significant downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, increasing heavy - oil supply. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, and production is expected to increase in July. The demand side shows that asphalt is overvalued [10][11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production, and the decline in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. China's increase in fuel oil import tariffs and the decline in geopolitical tensions also have a negative impact [12] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil to oscillate. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13] LPG - The cost - side support of LPG weakens, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly due to factors such as the significant reduction in CP prices in July, the rapid accumulation of US propane inventory, and weak domestic demand [14][15] PX - Crude oil prices rise, driving PX to rebound. In the short term, the tight - balance pattern of PX continues, but the terminal market does not provide strong support, and the absolute price of PX has a downward trend [17] PTA - PTA is affected by terminal negative feedback and oscillates weakly. It is expected that the PTA market will decline this week due to factors such as the expected weakness of crude oil prices, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction in production by downstream polyester factories [17] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene has risen continuously due to positive news of downstream production. In the medium term, the situation in July - August is favorable, but high inventory may suppress the rebound [18] Styrene - Styrene rebounds driven by the strength of pure benzene. However, its own supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventory is accumulating [22] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - EG is boosted by the rise in energy prices and oscillates due to its own supply - demand situation. The EG09 contract has upward elasticity, while the 01 contract may be shorted on rebounds [23][24] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber production and sales have slightly increased, the basis is stable, and processing fees have risen. The short - fiber supply - demand pattern oscillates, and the downstream weakness has not been transmitted to short - fiber itself [24] Bottle Chips - Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and processing fees need to remain low to promote maintenance. The absolute value of bottle chips follows raw materials, and the further compression space of spot processing fees is limited [26] Methanol - Methanol port inventory accumulates, and it oscillates. The price in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the logic of reduced imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is sufficient [27][28] Urea - Urea has a situation of weak supply and demand, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot market is active, and exports help reduce inventory [28] Plastic (LLDPE) - The short - term driving force of LLDPE is limited, and it oscillates. The raw material support is weakening, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [30][31] PP - PP maintenance has increased slightly, and it oscillates in the short term. The cost - side support is weakening, the supply side has an increasing trend, and the demand side is weak [32] PVC - PVC has low valuation and weak supply - demand, and it oscillates. The new production capacity will be put into operation, the downstream demand is weak, and the export situation has not improved significantly [34] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda may be in a situation where downstream replenishes inventory, and the market is strong. It is supported by the low price of liquid chlorine and the possible downstream replenishment [35] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period spread**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads, such as Brent M1 - M2 spread increasing by 0.04 to 1.21, and PX 1 - 5 month spread increasing by 10 to 46 [36] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety vary. For example, the asphalt basis is 212 with a change of - 24, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [37] - **Inter - variety spread**: The inter - variety spreads also show different changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread decreasing by 14 to - 268, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread increasing by 20 to 378 [38]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘红，金银价格回调 ——中信期货晨报20250710 中信期货研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | 板块 品种 | | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term cautious short - selling of far - month contracts or consider reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase [8][10] - Aluminum: Oscillating in a range [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term low - level oscillation, medium - term potential for upward movement [12][14][15] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly, focus on high - short opportunities [15][16] - Lead: Oscillating [16][17][19] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term [19][20][22] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing US reciprocal tariff game and Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports have led to a cautious market sentiment, causing a decline in the non - ferrous metals market. In the short - to - medium term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations will suppress prices, with a focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the demand prospects for non - ferrous metals remain uncertain [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 tons month - on - month, a 0.3% decline, but increased by 12.93% year - on - year. As of July 7, copper inventory increased by 1.11 tons to 14.29 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's tariff announcement has put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the demand has weakened in the off - season. Inventories have started to accumulate, and the upward momentum of copper prices has cooled. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina increased. The government of Guinea proposed GBX and exercised transportation rights. On July 8, alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Xinjiang railway issued a suspension order from July 7 - 11 [8][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but the market sentiment has a significant impact. In the long term, the focus is on ore prices. The measures proposed by Guinea may increase costs. In the short term, wait and see; in the medium - to - long term, consider short - selling far - month contracts [8][10]. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the average price of SMM AOO was 20,660 yuan/ton. As of July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, and the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased [11]. - **Main Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline has been postponed, but there is still uncertainty. The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and downstream willingness to buy at high prices has weakened. In the short term, prices will oscillate in a range; in the long term, consumption has potential risks [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. Thailand plans to impose a carbon tax in 2025. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is supportive. Demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 will oscillate at a low level; in the medium term, there is potential for upward movement [12][14][15]. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, the spot premium of zinc decreased, and the inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk preference has decreased. The supply of zinc ore has loosened, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to decline in the long term [15][16]. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of waste batteries remained stable, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and SHFE warehouse receipts increased [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot discount has slightly widened, and the supply has increased. The demand for lead - acid batteries has improved slightly. In the short term, prices will oscillate [16][17][19]. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Multiple nickel - related projects have advanced [19][20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [19][20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel iron and chrome iron has declined, and the 300 - series is still in an inverted state [24]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is out of the peak season. The inventory has decreased, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will oscillate in the short term [24]. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The price of tin ingots increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and the supply from Indonesia is affected. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, but the demand will weaken in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate [25].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-10 关税及美联储分歧推动⾦价反弹 4）美国总统特朗普周二表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应立即辞职。 5）欧洲议会贸易委员会主席朗格（Bernd Lange）周三表示，欧盟可 能即将与美国达成贸易协议，但可能难以争取到立即减免关税和承诺 不出台新措施。 价格逻辑： 金价下破3300美元后反弹，主要因为美联储会议纪要显示美联储内部 对于经济前瞻存在分歧，特朗普公布新关税政策。 基本面上，美联储方面，6月会议纪要显示，政策制定者指出，对于 关税对通胀潜在影响的时间、规模和持续性存在"相当大的不确定 性"。由于关税在经济中的传导路径及贸易谈判的不同结果，官员们 对其通胀影响持不同观点。 关税方面，美国总统特朗普宣布将对12国加征25%-40%关税，并对所 有金砖国家商品额外征10%关税，尽管"对等关税"最后谈判期限延 至8月1日暂时支撑美元，但整体贸易战风险仍挥之不去。此外，自8 月1日起，美国将对菲律宾产品征收20%的关税，对文莱和摩尔多瓦征 25%关税，对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚和斯里兰卡征30%关税。 特朗普公布的对巴西新征 ...