Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being "oscillating", and some like iron ore having an outlook of "oscillating on the stronger side" [7][9][10][15][19]. Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, industry contradictions are limited. With no new disturbances from the macro and policy fronts, the prices of black building materials sector varieties are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, the possibility of a phased upward movement can be considered [1][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. Southeast Asian hurricanes may disrupt arrival schedules. Demand is weakening seasonally, but the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. After the peak arrival period ends, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side in the short term after a rapid decline [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the fundamentals have weakened marginally. Recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure, and leading steel enterprises in East China lowered the price by 30 yuan/ton over the weekend. It is expected that the spot price of scrap steel will follow the decline in the short term [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are resistant to further increases, but coke has strong cost support and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and import supplements are limited. Although the procurement of mid - and downstream enterprises is expected to slow down, coal mine inventories are at a low level in recent years, and there is little possibility of significant inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are expected to remain healthy until the end of the year, and the spot price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term costs strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term cost trends strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward driving force for prices is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][18]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may still be disturbed, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may oscillate weakly; otherwise, it may rise. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: Recently, cost increases and factory shutdowns have led to a rebound in prices. However, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and prices above the industry's high - cost line may face pressure again. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][14][16]. 5. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2254.65, up 0.65%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2552.65, up 0.71%; the Industrial Products Index was 2226.35, up 0.48%; and the PPI Commodity Index was 1346.01, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index rose 0.26% on that day, with a decline of 0.12% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.18% in the past month, and a decline of 5.37% since the beginning of the year [99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global crude oil market is in a state of continuous inventory accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing oil prices to continue to fluctuate. The chemical industry is expected to be volatile, and investors should approach it with a range - bound mindset [2][3]. - Different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is range - bound, some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil may be strong, and most chemical products are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Global crude oil inventories have reached a new high for the year, and the US NGL inventory has reached a record high for the same period. The lack of short - term drivers is causing the market to continue to fluctuate [2]. - **Chemicals**: On Monday, chemicals slightly stabilized within a limited range. Ethylene glycol started to accumulate inventory, while pure benzene and styrene both saw inventory reductions. PX and PTA are the strongest in the chemical sector, but it is still difficult for them to outperform crude oil [3]. 3.2 Outlook for Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Short - term drivers are lacking, and the market will continue to oscillate. The increase in global inventory shows supply pressure, but the reduction in refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is fluctuating. After the OPEC+ increase in production and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the price has broken through an important support level, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak and volatile state. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and demand is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Refined oil is strong, so low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11]. - **PX**: Cost changes are limited, and the market is affected by sentiment and funds. The fundamentals are generally stable, with strong supply and demand, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the center of gravity has shifted upward. There is no unexpected reduction in supply, and it is expected to run slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it is running weakly. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is at a low level in recent years, and the upward drive is currently insufficient [14][15]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of over - inventory, and it is oscillating weakly. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the pressure on the cost side of pure benzene is increasing [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand and cost support are in a tug - of - war. It will maintain a low - level range - bound operation in the short term, with significant upward pressure [17][18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the upstream market and the processing fee may be compressed [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is passively following the rise of raw materials. The processing fee has a stronger support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Methanol**: High inventory is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is oscillating and consolidating [25]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions are cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. It is oscillating [27]. - **PP**: Production is still at a high level, and it is oscillating [28]. - **PL**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and it is oscillating [29]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals are suppressing the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the cost can support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations. It is oscillating, and the price may be stable [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.25 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 18 with a change of 18 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 28, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 177 with a change of 49 [37]. 3.4 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 10, 2025, shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all have positive growth rates [278]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 10, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.39%, a 1 - month increase of 1.85%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.45% [279].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It indicates that most products are expected to show a trend of oscillation, with some products having specific tendencies such as corn being expected to oscillate strongly, and pigs expected to oscillate weakly [1][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils - **Viewpoint**: Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was slightly higher than expected, while market sentiment improved. The market is expected to oscillate, with macro and industrial factors influencing the trend [5]. - **Logic**: Last Friday, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Recently, the expected domestic imported soybean arrivals are at a relatively high level in the same period, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. In terms of palm oil, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. In terms of rapeseed oil, as a large amount of Russian rapeseed comes on the market, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The double meal market oscillated, waiting for the guidance of the supply - demand report. It is expected that both US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will oscillate. One can buy on dips but not chase highs [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US government shutdown ended, and the supply - demand report may be released. The market expects that the US soybean yield may be lowered. Domestically, in the short term, the reduction of soybean meal inventory in oil mills is slow, and the spot and basis are weak. In the medium term, the procurement of December shipments is progressing, but the January imports are still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean gap in March 2026 [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: With downstream stocking and upstream reluctance to sell, the futures price broke through upwards. It is expected to oscillate strongly [7][8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices mostly rose. On the supply side, farmers' reluctance to sell increased due to cold weather, and the selling pressure has not been realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the increase in trade costs further supports the price. In the fourth quarter, the market is still in the stage of new grain listing pressure, and the selling pressure after "freezing" needs attention [7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price oscillates. It is expected to oscillate weakly, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of meat to pig price has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and the sustainability needs attention. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [9][11]. - **Logic**: The rubber market rebounded in line with the commodity rebound rhythm. The macro - sentiment was positive, and the valuation of RU was lower than NR. The supply in overseas producing areas was affected by weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][13]. - **Logic**: The BR market rebounded slightly following natural rubber. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and temporarily stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the market atmosphere is still cautious [12][13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuated narrowly and oscillated. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; in the long term, it may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the improvement of Sino - US trade relations is beneficial to cotton imports and textile exports in the long term but has limited short - term impact. In terms of supply and demand, the estimated output of Xinjiang cotton has been lowered, and the cost supports the cotton price, but there is a lack of new positive factors. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly. In the medium - long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production and export has ended, and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere has started. India, Thailand, and Brazil are all expected to increase production. Domestically, the sugar production in the new season is expected to increase, and the import is expected to be tightened, but the sugar price may decline as the new sugar supply increases [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures drive the spot, and the market is dominated by funds. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Logic**: The futures market is rising strongly, but the spot market shows insufficient follow - up. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the rise of packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, and the expected good production and sales of white cards and cultural papers. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, and the influence of warehouse receipts on pricing [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the new production capacity has increased the supply pressure, and the tender delay has limited support for the price. In the later stage, the concentrated start of tenders in November is expected to drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but the market may decline in December and January [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Domestic timber is being delivered successively, and the log market is operating at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. - **Logic**: The spot market of logs is under downward pressure due to factors such as traders' active inventory reduction and weak sales of integrated materials. The foreign quotation of New Zealand logs has been lowered, but the trading volume is still poor. After the peak season, the inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the downward space is limited [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-11-11 供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局，库存去化加快；工 业硅和多晶硅供需也偏紧，主要是受益于西南地区枯水期减产；电解 钴产量快速下滑，过剩局面缓解。中短期来看，现实供需偏好，碳酸 锂去库加快，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属，关注碳酸锂短多机会。长期来 看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿 产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，碳酸锂长期供需走 向需要重新审视。 ⼯业硅观点：枯⽔期减产叠加仓单去化，硅价⽀撑较强。 多晶硅观点：产量边际下滑，多晶硅⾼位震荡。 碳酸锂观点：需求持续超预期，股期联动锂价⼤涨。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices have risen above $4,070 per ounce. Weakening US consumer confidence and employment indicators have strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts, partially offsetting the negative impact of the end of the government shutdown. The market's trading logic has returned to expectations of loose liquidity [1]. - The current gold price is driven by the resonance of "economic weakness" and "fiscal expansion". The silver price follows the rhythm of gold, with an expected monthly oscillation. In the long - term, gold is the anchor for silver pricing, and a contraction in the US dollar's credit is beneficial to physical currencies, with gold benefiting first and silver enjoying spill - over effects [3]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of $3,800 - $4,200 per ounce, and that of London silver in the range of $46 - $52 per ounce [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending a 40 - day government shutdown. Federal employees have returned to work, and lagging data will be released gradually [2]. - The US consumer confidence index dropped to a three - and - a - half - year low (50.3), and Challenger job cuts soared by 183% compared to the previous month, indicating a continuous cooling of the labor market [2]. - Sino - US trade flow has been weak, shipping capacity has dropped to the lowest level this year, and the WCI freight index has fallen from its mid - year high, showing a slowdown in foreign trade demand, which supports the expectation of a decline in US inflation and strengthens the Fed's logic of loosening [2]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US economy is experiencing a "downward demand shock", wage growth has slowed, inflation is still under control, and the impact of tariffs is mainly limited to the commodity sector. She hinted that the December meeting will maintain a loose stance [2]. - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month in October, and global gold ETFs recorded net inflows in the past two days [2]. Price Logic Gold - The economic aspect: The decline in consumption and employment caused by the shutdown is gradually emerging. Alternative indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum. Sino - US shipping and trade flow declines support the Fed's decision to continue cutting interest rates in December. Mary Daly's statement further consolidates market bets on interest rate cuts [3]. - The fiscal aspect: The government's resumption of work brings one - time expenditure replenishment and the continuation of medical insurance subsidies. Short - term fiscal investment may push up long - term interest rates and cause short - term fluctuations, but in the medium - term, US debt expansion and deficit pressure will extend the loose cycle, which is beneficial to the reserve and hedging demand for gold [3]. Silver - The silver price follows the rhythm of gold, with an expected monthly oscillation. Focus on the trading window around the December FOMC meeting. In the long - term, gold is the anchor for silver pricing, and a contraction in the US dollar's credit benefits physical currencies, with gold benefiting first and silver enjoying spill - over effects. Interest rate cuts will drive the repair of the US fundamentals, and with global fiscal resonance expansion, the world may shift from a soft landing to a moderate recovery in 2026, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3][6]. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index increased by 0.65%, 0.71%, and 0.48% respectively [43]. Precious Metals Index - As of November 10, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 1.73%, a 5 - day increase of 2.85%, a 1 - month increase of 1.15%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.57% [45].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The stock market experiences sector rotation, with funds flowing from the technology sector to the chemical and consumer sectors, and the bond market shows a tendency of oscillating upward [2][3] - In the stock index futures market, it is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell - style allocation [3][7] - In the stock index options market, it is advisable to continue holding covered positions for additional income [3][8] - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond market is expected to oscillate upward [4][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded in a U - shape, with a rotation to low - lying sectors. High - beta sectors retreated, while value and defensive sectors rose. Due to the policy window period and recent volume contraction, it is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell - style allocation. The operation suggestion is to hold a long position in the Dividend ETF + IM. [3][7] - The basis points of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month are - 8.85, 0.94, - 41, and - 54.45 respectively, changing by - 3.06, 0.49, - 5.09, and - 5.98 points compared to the previous trading day. The inter - period spreads (current month - next month) are 14.2, 0.8, 67, and 87.8 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 0.6, 0.2, 5.2, and 6.4 points. The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM change by 10827, 5768, 8841, and - 1747 lots respectively. [7] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety rebounded slightly but remained at a low - liquidity level since October. The option sentiment index was weak, especially for technology - sector options. Option volatility varied, with the implied volatility of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option strengthening and that of the CSI 300 stock index option weakening. It is recommended to continue holding covered positions for additional income. [8] Treasury Bond Futures - Most treasury bond futures rose yesterday. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed by 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.00%, and 0.22% respectively. The central bank's large - scale net injection supported the bond market. In October, the CPI improved, and the core CPI increased significantly. The central bank restarted treasury bond trading, and the short - term factors driving bond yields down were lacking. The stock - bond seesaw effect may weaken, and the restart of treasury bond trading may boost bond market sentiment. The operation suggestions include a trend strategy of oscillating upward, a hedging strategy of paying attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels, a basis strategy of looking for positive spreads and basis widening, and a curve strategy of appropriately paying attention to curve steepening. [4][9] - The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter are 58830, 49109, 24929, and 96097 lots respectively, with a one - day change of 3915, 4624, - 1360, and - 3686 lots. The positions are 231393, 138398, 67365, and 129150 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 4216, - 4021, - 700, and 1495 lots. The inter - period spreads (current quarter - next quarter) are 0.225, 0.030, 0.052, and 0.250 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.025, - 0.010, 0, and 0.010 yuan. The cross - variety spreads and basis points also have corresponding changes. [8][9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes China's October new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply annual rate, the US October CPI annual rate, China's October total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and China's October industrial added value above designated size annual rate. [12] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Asset Management Association of China is soliciting opinions on the "Guidelines for the Management of the Thematic Investment Style of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" to standardize the style drift problem of thematic investment funds. [13] - The State Council General Office issued measures to promote private investment, including expanding access, removing obstacles, and strengthening support. [13] - Two departments issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation, with goals set for 2030 and 2035. [13] - China successfully launched the 13th group of low - orbit satellite Internet satellites. [14] - The US Senate reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown. [15] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided. [16][20][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The passage of the temporary appropriation bill by the US Senate has boosted investors' optimism in the non - ferrous metals market. The macro - environment has repeated expectations but overall remains stable. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, and prices will continue to fluctuate. There are opportunities for aluminum ingot price increases and low - buying opportunities for copper and tin. In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Market Analysis - **Macro - environment**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to avoid a government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions are out, increasing the expectation of economic - stabilizing policies. The Fed cut interest rates in October and will end the balance - sheet lock - up process in December, but Powell said a rate cut in December is uncertain [1]. - **Supply - demand situation**: The raw material supply remains tight and is spreading to the smelting end. Overseas aluminum smelting faces potential disruptions. Terminal demand is slightly weak, with a decline in automobile sales growth in October and an expanded decline in air - conditioner production schedules from November to December. The current supply - demand of base metals is slightly weak, but there are expectations of tight supply [1]. 2. Individual Metal Analysis Copper - **View**: Copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized as inventories decline. - **Information analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the decision on further rate cuts in December is uncertain. The US financial system's liquidity may still be deteriorating. In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month by 2.94 tons (2.62%), and increased year - on - year by 9.63%. As of November 10, copper inventories dropped by 0.74 tons to 19.59 tons. - **Main logic**: Macro factors and tight liquidity in the US money market led to a short - term adjustment in copper prices. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions increased, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling rose, leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, copper spot turned to a premium, and inventory started to decline, indicating increased downstream purchasing willingness. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium - to - long term due to supply constraints and disruptions [7][8]. Alumina - **View**: The fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. - **Main logic**: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Although there are some fluctuations in high - cost production capacity and environmental factors cause disruptions, the supply contraction is not obvious, and the inventory is still increasing strongly in China [9]. Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level as inventories accumulate. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts increased. Some overseas aluminum plants have extended their operations, and China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased in October. - **Main logic**: The macro - environment is volatile. On the supply side, domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and there are marginal disruptions overseas. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, and the terminal demand is stable. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, the price center may continue to rise [10][11][12]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Aluminum alloy prices are fluctuating at a high level as scrap aluminum supply remains tight. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the automobile sales decreased slightly in October. - **Main logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum is strongly supported. On the supply side, there are risks of production cuts in some alloy plants. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, prices are expected to fluctuate due to uncertain policies and raw material disruptions [13][15]. Zinc - **View**: Zinc prices are fluctuating at a high level as the export window opens. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were negative. As of November 10, the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. - **Main logic**: The macro - environment is optimistic. On the supply side, the short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelting profit is good, with high production. The export window has opened, relieving domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is entering the off - season. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [16]. Lead - **View**: Lead prices are fluctuating as social inventories accumulate slightly. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The social inventory and warehouse receipts increased. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, the profit of secondary lead smelting increased, and the production increased. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery plants resumed production, and the demand is in the peak season. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [17][18]. Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices are fluctuating as the current supply - demand is loose. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia cracked down on illegal nickel mining, and there were developments in mining governance. - **Main logic**: Market sentiment dominates the price. The supply of nickel ore is loose, the production of intermediate products has recovered, and the inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [19][20]. Stainless Steel - **View**: Stainless steel prices are fluctuating and rising as warehouse receipts continue to decline. - **Information analysis**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel - iron and chromium decreased. The Indonesian government allocated funds for mining and smelting projects. - **Main logic**: The cost support for steel prices is weakening. The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. The social inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [21]. Tin - **View**: Tin prices are fluctuating at a high level as the Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin increased. - **Main logic**: There are continuous supply disruptions in tin. The production increase in Wa State may be postponed, and there are problems in other production areas. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee is low. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [23]. 3. Market Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index), and PPI commodity index of the non - ferrous metals market all showed increases, with the increase rates being 0.65%, 0.71%, 0.48%, and 0.37% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.58% on that day, 0.85% in the past 5 days, 1.60% in the past month, and 7.76% since the beginning of the year [144][145].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, mainly due to the release of some negative sentiment from the public notice of a mine by the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources. The strong current and expected demand drove the price to rise with increased positions [3]. - The current market has strong supply and demand. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the supply - side expectations are wavering, which may cause significant price fluctuations. Although the SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October and is expected to remain strong from November to December, it still faces the problem of ore shortage. The apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand, the off - season performance in the first quarter of next year, and the renewal policy. The expected demand for energy storage may generate speculative demand when the price drops, raising the price center. The social inventory is continuing to be destocked, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant. The market is tight in November and December, but if a certain production capacity resumes in the near future, it may ease in December. In the long run, if the price drops due to resumed production, it is a good time to buy at a low price [4]. - The current demand is still strong, and the downstream procurement demand is still strong. After the previous price drop, the price was quickly pulled up to fill the gap, with obvious support. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy appropriately after a pull - back. Due to the expected resumed production and off - season expectations, direct chasing of long positions is not recommended, but long positions can be arranged when the price pulls back [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, driven by strong demand and the release of some negative sentiment from the mine notice [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply: SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October, expected to be strong from November to December, but facing ore shortage [4]. - Demand: Apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to demand continuation, off - season performance, and renewal policy. Expected energy - storage demand may generate speculative demand when prices drop [4]. - Inventory and Basis: Social inventory is destocking, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant [4]. - Balance: The market is tight in November and December. If a certain production capacity resumes, it may ease in December. In the long run, a price drop due to resumed production is a buying opportunity [4]. Summary and Strategy - The current demand is strong, and the downstream procurement demand is high. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy after a pull - back. Do not directly chase long positions, but arrange long positions when the price pulls back [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options is expected to be imminent, which will bring positive impacts such as strengthening China's commodity pricing power, promoting the healthy development of the industry, helping enterprises manage price risks, and enhancing market transparency [3][4] - In the short - term, the global supply of platinum and palladium is tight. In the long - term, platinum's supply - demand fundamentals will gradually improve, while palladium will gradually become looser [5] - In the future, platinum is expected to fluctuate upward in the medium - to - long term, and for palladium, attention should be paid to the price decline risk caused by the relaxation of supply - demand. Suggested price ranges are 1500 - 1800 dollars per ounce for platinum and 1300 - 1600 dollars per ounce for palladium. Strategies include long platinum and long - platinum short - palladium cross - variety opportunities [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 7, 2025, the CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and the listing time is expected to be approaching [3] - Positive impacts of the listing: strengthening China's commodity pricing power as China is a major consumer but lacks pricing influence; promoting industrial development and supply - chain stability by providing standardized contracts and price - discovery functions; helping enterprises manage price risks in the context of large price fluctuations; enhancing market transparency as derivatives are information - aggregation platforms [3][4] Fundamental Situation - Short - term: Supply is tight due to tariffs and sanctions on Russia. As of November 5, the 1 - month lease rate of platinum is around 2.7%, and that of palladium is around 1.0% [5] - Long - term: Supply from South Africa is restricted by power shortages, labor issues, etc. In Q2 2025, global platinum mine and refined production decreased by 7.8% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively; in the first half of 2025, global palladium mine and refined production decreased by 10.1% and 6.6% year - on - year respectively. Platinum demand is growing steadily, while palladium supply - demand is becoming looser [5] Summary and Strategy - Recently, precious metal prices have adjusted. Platinum remains firm due to trade restrictions, and palladium prices are supported by supply tightness in other regions. In the future, platinum is expected to fluctuate upward, and for palladium, attention should be paid to price decline risks [6] - Suggested price ranges: 1500 - 1800 dollars per ounce for platinum and 1300 - 1600 dollars per ounce for palladium. Strategies include long platinum and long - platinum short - palladium cross - variety opportunities [6]