1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - view is expected to be positive, with the Fed's actions and China's central economic work conference setting a good tone. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The raw material supply is tight and may affect the smelting end. The current supply - demand improvement of basic metals has slowed down, but the future supply - demand is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, and positive demand expectations may boost basic metals, but high prices and volatile Fed expectations may limit price increases. In the long term, potential stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up their prices. It is advisable to focus on opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin [2]. 3. Summary of Each Variety Copper - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [7][8][9]. - **Analysis**: The US unemployment rate is high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT plans to reduce production in 2026. Demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory is rising. LME's plan to set position limits weakens the upward momentum of copper prices [7][8][9]. Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile [9][10][11]. - **Analysis**: Macro sentiment affects the market. The supply reduction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. The warehouse receipts are decreasing, but there is pressure on the price due to factors such as expired warehouse receipts and regional premium adjustments. The price may fluctuate more as more funds focus on it [9][10][11]. Aluminum - **View**: Mozal Aluminum Plant may shut down, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The macro - view is positive. Domestically, production capacity and operating rate are high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply. High prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term is volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [15]. - **Analysis**: The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply may decrease due to environmental policies and unclear policies. Demand may weaken after the end of the year - end car sales season. With cost support and stable supply - demand, the short - and medium - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **View**: LME zinc inventory has risen to nearly 100,000 tons, and zinc prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [18][19]. - **Analysis**: The macro - view is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile, and the long - term price may decline due to increased supply and limited demand growth [18][19]. Lead - **View**: LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and lead prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [20][21]. - **Analysis**: The spot premium is rising, and the supply is affected by smelter overhauls. Demand is relatively stable with some battery enterprises planning to increase production. However, the increase in LME inventory suppresses the price [20][21]. Nickel - **View**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices rebound, with an overall outlook of being volatile [21][23][26]. - **Analysis**: The current supply is still under pressure, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, if Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the oversupply situation in 2026 may improve significantly [21][23][26]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The rebound of nickel prices drives up the stainless - steel market, with an overall outlook of being range - bound [27][28]. - **Analysis**: The cost is supported by raw materials, but production is expected to decrease in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the price is likely to be range - bound [27][28]. Tin - **View**: The downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate upward, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [28][29]. - **Analysis**: Supply is restricted by issues such as slow复产 in mines, RKAB approvals in Indonesia, and political instability in Africa. Demand is growing in industries like semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles, which will drive up the tin price [28][29]. 4. Market Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on December 17, 2025. For example, the commodity index was 2262.95, up 0.56% [155]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on December 17, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.74%, a 5 - day increase of 0.25%, a 1 - month increase of 3.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.52% [156].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's interest rate meeting was overall dovish. With the US fundamentals and inflation both in a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity further heated up. The SEP of this meeting showed an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the probability of the relatively dovish candidate Hassett being nominated is increasing. Before his nomination and assumption of office, it may be the most fluent stage for trading on liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [7]. - Domestic macro: The tone of the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference was moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, continuing the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance [7]. - Asset views: The current macro environment is still beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metal varieties with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be maintained on other non - ferrous varieties (tin, lithium carbonate). Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The combination of strong demand for industrial products from emerging markets and expected interest rate cuts in the US is favorable for industrial commodities. The supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum are still tight, which may stimulate their further strengthening. The equity - index futures may lack upward momentum after the important meetings, and are relatively defensive [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations 3.1.1 Domestic Main Commodities - Index futures: CSI 300 futures rose 1.75% daily, 0.09% weekly, 1.61% monthly, - 0.86% quarterly, and 16.76% year - to - date; SSE 50 futures rose 1.21% daily, 0.01% weekly, 0.81% monthly, - 0.06% quarterly, and 11.55% year - to - date; CSI 500 futures rose 1.95% daily, - 0.38% weekly, 2.47% monthly, - 1.97% quarterly, and 25.54% year - to - date; CSI 1000 futures rose 1.47% daily, - 0.91% weekly, 0.47% monthly, - 1.50% quarterly, and 24.73% year - to - date [2][4]. - Bond futures: 2 - year bond futures rose 0.01% daily, - 0.03% weekly, 0.05% monthly, 0.14% quarterly, and - 0.52% year - to - date; 5 - year bond futures rose 0.04% daily, 0.02% weekly, 0.09% monthly, 0.30% quarterly, and - 0.66% year - to - date; 10 - year bond futures rose 0.09% daily, 0.02% weekly, 0.06% monthly, 0.44% quarterly, and - 0.84% year - to - date; 30 - year bond futures rose 0.67% daily, - 0.29% weekly, - 2.05% monthly, - 1.26% quarterly, and - 5.63% year - to - date [2][4]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was flat daily, - 0.18% weekly, - 1.23% monthly, 0.41% quarterly, and - 9.46% year - to - date; the euro - US dollar exchange rate had 0 pips daily change, 6 pips weekly, 146 pips monthly, 13 pips quarterly, and 1394 pips year - to - date; the US dollar - yen exchange rate was flat daily, - 0.71% weekly, - 0.92% monthly, 4.60% quarterly, and - 1.57% year - to - date [2][4]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate had 0 bp daily change, 2 bp weekly, - 2 bp monthly, 3 bp quarterly, and - 27 bp year - to - date; the 10Y Chinese government bond yield had - 0.3 bp daily change, 0.6 bp weekly, 0.5 bp monthly, - 1.5 bp quarterly, and 0.2 bp year - to - date; the 10Y US government bond yield had - 3 bp daily change, - 4 bp weekly, 0.01 bp monthly, - 1 bp quarterly, and - 40 bp year - to - date [2][4]. - Shipping and precious metals: The European container shipping route rose 0.77% daily, 1.31% weekly, 15.48% monthly, 3.47% quarterly, and - 24.69% year - to - date; gold rose 0.85% daily, 0.93% weekly, 2.70% monthly, 11.74% quarterly, and 58.63% year - to - date; silver rose 5.77% daily, 4.16% weekly, 21.88% monthly, 41.69% quarterly, and 107.66% year - to - date [2][4]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper rose 0.98% daily, - 1.43% weekly, 6.20% monthly, 11.76% quarterly, and 25.82% year - to - date; aluminum rose 0.32% daily, - 1.15% weekly, 1.22% monthly, 5.87% quarterly, and 10.79% year - to - date; zinc fell - 0.26% daily, - 2.69% weekly, 2.43% monthly, 5.01% quarterly, and - 9.78% year - to - date [2][4]. - Black metals and building materials: Iron ore rose 0.92% daily, 0.99% weekly, 0.00% monthly, 1.12% quarterly, and - 1.41% year - to - date; coke rose 1.06% daily, 3.76% weekly, - 2.79% monthly, - 5.70% quarterly, and - 15.54% year - to - date; coking coal fell - 0.52% daily, 4.48% weekly, - 7.81% monthly, - 12.38% quarterly, and - 8.49% year - to - date [2][4]. 3.1.2 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil fell - 2.66% daily, - 4.10% weekly, - 5.66% monthly, - 11.63% quarterly, and - 23.24% year - to - date; ICE Brent crude oil fell - 2.52% daily, - 3.89% weekly, - 5.58% monthly, - 11.05% quarterly, and - 21.37% year - to - date; NYMEX natural gas fell - 2.43% daily, - 3.97% weekly, - 19.00% monthly, 18.22% quarterly, and 8.40% year - to - date [3][4]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell - 0.05% daily, rose 0.06% weekly, 1.78% monthly, 11.44% quarterly, and 64.14% year - to - date; COMEX silver fell - 0.52% daily, rose 2.75% weekly, 11.75% monthly, 36.20% quarterly, and 117.80% year - to - date [3][4]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper fell - 0.57% daily, rose 0.58% weekly, 3.97% monthly, 12.85% quarterly, and 32.31% year - to - date; LME aluminum rose 0.26% daily, 0.26% weekly, 0.61% monthly, 7.28% quarterly, and 12.93% year - to - date; LME zinc fell - 1.94% daily, - 3.31% weekly, - 0.52% monthly, 2.66% quarterly, and 1.54% year - to - date [3][4]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans fell - 0.91% daily, - 1.21% weekly, - 6.51% monthly, 6.25% quarterly, and 5.27% year - to - date; CBOT corn fell - 0.80% daily, - 1.02% weekly, - 2.62% monthly, 4.81% quarterly, and - 4.96% year - to - date; CBOT wheat fell - 2.26% daily, - 3.92% weekly, - 5.48% monthly, 0.30% quarterly, and - 7.62% year - to - date [3][4]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles, with attention on the over - crowding of small - cap funds [8]. - Stock index options are expected to fluctuate as the overall market trading volume slightly declined, with attention on the under - expected liquidity in the options market [8]. - Bond futures are expected to fluctuate as the bond market remains weak, with attention on policy, fundamental - repair, and tariff - factor surprises [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate as geopolitical and economic - trade tensions ease, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity - market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - The European container shipping route is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, with attention on the rate of freight - price decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon, manganese - silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to fluctuate, with various factors such as special - bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, and cost support being the focus [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to fluctuate, with factors like trade frictions, inventory changes, and supply - side disturbances being the focus [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, propylene, PP, plastics, styrene, PVC, caustic soda, and oils are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as OPEC+ production policy, cost - end progress, and supply disturbances being the focus [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Protein meal, corn/starch, and synthetic rubber are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as weather, domestic demand, and crude - oil price fluctuations being the focus; natural rubber, cotton, sugar, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as demand, inventory, and macro - economic changes being the focus [11].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-12-17 China Monetary Policy Outlook: Moderate Easing 2026 年中国货币政策展望：如何理解适度宽松 | 张 陆 | Zhang Lu | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03105230 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0021341 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | | Cheng Xiaoqing | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0018635 | | 张菁 | Zhang Jing | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Consulti ...

需期货有限公司 C Futures Company Limited 2025年12月16日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 一、氧化铝 (1) 12月16日国产矿价格为509元/吨，环比0元/吨：16日几内亚进口矿 （1）12月16日SMM A00均价21630元/吨，环比一80元/吨；升贴水为~100 价格70美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 12月16日现货价格指数为2788元/吨,环比-2元/吨; (3) 12月16日期货库存246175吨,环比-2394吨; (4) 12月16日进口盈亏为68元/吨,环比+1元/吨; 二、电解铝 元/吨,环比-60元/吨; 三、铝合金 (1) 12月16日保太ADC12价格为21000元/吨,环比-100元/吨; (2) 12月16日生铝精度价差为1901元/吨,环比+37元/吨;16日型材铝精 废价差2654元/吨,环比+38元/吨; (3) 12月16日期货库存为69633吨,环比-89吨; 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 元/吨 - 2024 600 F 570 540 510 480 450 420 03/17 04/11 05/07 06/01 06/26 07/2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural products including pulp, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, live pigs, natural and synthetic rubbers, cotton, sugar, double gum paper, and logs, providing insights into their market trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks [1][5][6][7][8][11][12][15][16][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp - **View**: Futures fluctuate while spot prices continue to decline. The market has more positive factors, which will push up the bottom of futures price movements. It is expected that the low on December 1st will not be broken again. The upper pressure comes from weak demand, and the 05 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the 5650 - 5750 area [1][15]. - **Logic**: Positive drivers include rising US dollar - denominated prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations from mill shutdowns, potential for other mills to cut production, and relatively high actual demand. Negative factors are difficulties in cost transfer for downstream paper, seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and high hedging pressure on traders if downstream purchases remain weak [1][15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate and rise. Positive news raises the bottom, but the upper hedging pressure remains unchanged [2][15]. Oils and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment is still weak. Pay attention to whether the lower level can provide technical support. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Logic**: Influenced by factors such as the overall selling in the agricultural product market, concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, high domestic soybean inventory, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil exports [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate weakly. The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and the current sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [5]. Protein Meals - **View**: The premium of state - reserve auctions has narrowed, and the two meals are oscillating at a low level [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian soybean sowing is almost complete, and Argentina is accelerating the sale of new crops. US soybean is expected to oscillate. Domestically, short - term state - reserve soybean auction results, slow seasonal inventory reduction of soybean meal, medium - term purchase progress, uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, and long - term South American weather all affect the market [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal will all oscillate [6]. Corn/Starch - **View**: After the snow and rain, the supply in the production area continues to increase [7]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are weakening steadily. Affected by news of regulatory reserve auctions and high - level resistance on the futures market, the market sentiment has turned, and the supply in the market has increased. It is expected that prices will first fall and then rise before the Spring Festival, and it is unlikely to break the previous low [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. Short - term observation is recommended [7]. Live Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and pig prices are oscillating within a narrow range [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs from second - fattening is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand may increase after the snowfall, and the average slaughter weight has declined. The industry is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. In the near - term, prices are expected to be weak. In the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [8]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Maintain a wide - range intraday oscillation [8]. - **Logic**: Currently, it is in a stage without a strong driver. Although the price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts and the overall commodity rebound, it mostly falls back within the day. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is a risk of decline. The demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation without strong expectations or macro - level drive [8][9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to limited fundamental variables, the price is expected to continue to oscillate, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based unilateral market [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The positive sentiment in the market is maintained [11]. - **Logic**: The BR futures market is oscillating strongly, and its position is increasing. It is mainly due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of BR. The butadiene price is oscillating, and the demand side has certain support. Although there is an expectation of import arrivals, the current good trading situation supports the market [11]. - **Outlook**: Temporarily treat the market as oscillating strongly, but the sustainability of the upward trend is questionable [11]. Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices have slightly declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability [12]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The commercial inventory is increasing, but the inventory accumulation speed is lower than expected, indicating good consumption. The market is concerned about the potential reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year, which has pushed up the price in the short term. However, the actual upward - driving force of the fundamentals is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is pushed up by sentiment, and there is a risk of correction. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Sugar - **View**: The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the decline of sugar prices has widened [12]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar supply is expected to change from tight to loose in the 25/26 crushing season. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. The production of Brazilian sugar has passed its peak, and the market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere. With the increase in supply, the pressure on sugar prices is increasing [12][14]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season [12][14]. Double Gum Paper - **View**: Publishers'提货 continues, and the inventory pressure on paper enterprises has been alleviated [16]. - **Logic**: Recently, the publication orders have started to be picked up, which has alleviated the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises. However, the social demand has not improved significantly, and distributors mainly maintain stable prices. The market is facing factors such as stable prices of large - scale paper enterprises, rational stocking by distributors, different trends of different types of double - gum paper, and the divergence between pulp and paper prices. In the future, the supply pressure still exists, and paper enterprises may adjust the market supply and demand through price cuts or production cuts [16]. - **Outlook**: Supported by publishers'提货 and paper enterprises' costs, but the medium - term demand is expected to be weak. The price of double - gum paper will run weakly and stably [16][17]. Logs - **View**: The valuation is low, and the market rebounds with reduced positions [19]. - **Logic**: The spot price has weakened, which has affected the market sentiment. However, the near - month contract has reached a low - valuation area and has certain support. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease from December to January, and the domestic demand is weak. The 01 contract has a certain profit in buying for delivery, and the 03 contract has more game points. Considering the low overall valuation, hold the 1 - 3 reverse spread and pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 03 contract at a low price [19]. - **Outlook**: The loose pattern of the log market continues. The near - month contract lacks game value. Pay attention to the reverse spread or the opportunity of buying the far - month contract at a low price [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the pullback of popular sectors has dragged down sentiment. In mid - to late December, it is recommended to focus on risk - avoidance allocations, with a short - term combination of high - dividend and price - increase chains [1][9]. - In the stock index options market, volatility has rebounded, and a short - term defensive strategy is advisable, with a short - term protective put option recommended [2][9]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond market shows differentiation. Short - term caution is needed for the ultra - long - end, while the short - end has relatively stronger support [3][11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the equity market accelerated its correction, with popular sectors such as non - ferrous metals, new energy, and communications leading the decline. The market trading volume was around 17.5 trillion. The IC and IM contracts saw significant increases in positions, indicating hedging demand. The market attributes the pullback to various factors, but the core issue is the unclear leading funds. The operation suggestion is to hold IC and the dividend index [1][9]. Stock Index Options - The underlying market fell across the board. The total trading volume of the options market reached 9.854 billion yuan, a 60.16% increase from the previous day. The proportion of put option trading volume increased, showing a defensive sentiment. The sentiment indicators suggest a weak medium - term view. Volatility rebounded, and a short - term protective put option is recommended [2][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures showed differentiation. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed by 0.05%, 0.03%, - 0.02%, and - 0.19% respectively. The T main contract was volatile, and the ultra - long - end TL contract continued to decline, while the short - end TS contract adjusted. The market sentiment needs to improve. The operation suggestions include a trend strategy of range - bound trading, paying attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, focusing on basis widening, and expecting a steep yield curve [3][11][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It includes data such as China's reserve currency in November 2025, the US non - farm payrolls change in November 2025, and upcoming data on the US core CPI and PCE price index in November 2025 [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: The National Development and Reform Commission proposed measures to boost domestic demand, including stabilizing bulk consumption, implementing key projects in consumption - related fields, and improving market order [14]. - **Financial Technology**: Baidu's no - code application building platform "Miaoda" has generated over 500,000 commercial applications in 8 months. Baidu also launched a long - term support plan for creators [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The London Metal Exchange plans to implement new position limit rules from July next year to comply with UK financial regulatory requirements [15]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [16]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report did not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations has pushed oil prices down, and the chemical industry is actively resisting low profits and prices. The global chemical industry's capacity reduction continues, and the short - term energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, with short - term profit - taking on short positions as the main strategy [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Energy and Chemicals**: The overall energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions [3]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market. Pay attention to the support at the previous low. - **Main Logic**: API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week, while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The market is in a state of expected supply surplus, and the support at the previous low may come from the short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela [6]. - **Outlook**: The expected supply surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations may fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the short - term support at the annual low. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is weak, and the asphalt futures price has fallen below the 2900 support level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, leading to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt futures price has fallen below an important support level. The pricing of futures has returned to Shandong's spot price, and the high valuation of asphalt is being revised down. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still high [7]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, showing a downward trend. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists. The decline in oil prices has led to a fall in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three major driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [7]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, showing a downward trend. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply pressure of domestic refined oil is increasing, and the supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil are facing a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates with crude oil. 3.2.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price trend, while its strong fundamentals support firm profits. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have continued to adjust downward. The positive signal from the Russia - Ukraine peace process has led to a decline in Brent oil prices. Under the support of PTA and polyester demand, the decline in PX prices is limited, but in the short term, it is greatly affected by cost and lacks new positive drivers [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it fluctuates and consolidates under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. It is expected that PXN will consolidate in the range of [260, 300]. The positive spread logic is maintained. 3.2.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains firm. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating and falling, and the cost support has collapsed. PX's good supply - demand expectations prevent the cost decline from being overly transmitted to downstream products. The short - term supply and demand of PTA are stable, and the basis is relatively strong. The price follows the upstream cost and oscillates weakly [10]. - **Outlook**: The price oscillates and consolidates with the cost, and the processing fee maintains a certain range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract in the range of 4600 - 4700 on dips. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: There are differences in expectations, and pure benzene oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Pure benzene is currently in a state of weak reality and divergent expectations. The recent trading on the disk focuses on the far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has large differences in the balance forecast for Q1 2026, mainly due to different estimates of imports and the return of downstream devices. The chemical market atmosphere is pessimistic [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. 3.2.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and styrene oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the support from crude oil and the cost side has been insufficient, dragging down the styrene price. The supply - demand of styrene is in a tight - balance state, providing support for the price, but there is insufficient upward driving force. In December, there is an expectation of further inventory reduction, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upward space. From January, the seasonal inventory accumulation will start [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Device disruptions increase, further consolidating price support, but there is still a lack of medium - term drivers. - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded. The previous price adjustment was sufficient, and the low price has led to production cuts on the supply side. The arrival volume of foreign ships is moderate, and the inventory accumulation rate at ports has slowed down. In the short term, the price is expected to remain low, but in the long - term, the inventory accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [14][15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price may bottom out under industry resistance, and in the long term, the inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with limited rebound height and wide - range low - level oscillation. 3.2.10 Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The cost trend is divergent, and the demand is weak. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost shows a divergent trend. PTA is affected by international oil prices and oscillates weakly, while ethylene glycol rebounds. The price of polyester staple fiber is relatively resistant to decline, but the demand is weak, and there is no upward driving force in the off - season [19][20]. - **Outlook**: The price of staple fiber oscillates with the upstream, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced. The long - TA and short - PF positions should take profit and exit. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The trend of upstream polyester raw materials is divergent. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials show a divergent trend. PTA is weakly oscillating, and ethylene glycol is rising. The price of polyester bottle chips is narrowly consolidating, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable [21]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee below is enhanced. 3.2.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The unloading at coastal areas is lower than expected, and the supply and demand in the inland support methanol to oscillate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol market oscillates and consolidates. The supply in the inland market is abundant, and enterprises reduce prices to sell goods. The port inventory is being digested, and the inventory in the inland is low, supporting the price. The overall pattern in coastal areas is weaker than that in the inland [23]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation and consolidation. 3.2.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The demand support is insufficient, and the disk oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Although the supply of urea has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. The demand support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export has weakened, and the environmental protection warning and production restrictions in the mainstream areas may reduce the short - term industrial demand [24]. - **Outlook**: The market lacks effective positive support, and the price may decline slightly. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the start - up of compound fertilizer factories. 3.2.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **Viewpoint**: Oil prices are weak, and the support from maintenance is limited. Plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The plastic futures price oscillates. It is mainly driven by PP recently. Oil prices are oscillating and weakening, and the geopolitical premium is fluctuating. The fundamental support of plastic itself is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [27]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the maintenance expectation, PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The PDH profit is temporarily under pressure. Oil prices are oscillating and weakening, and the geopolitical premium is fluctuating. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the supply pressure is still large, and the inventory is relatively high [28]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the PDH maintenance expectation supports PL to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still has a boosting effect. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the downstream buying is cautious. The short - term powder profit is under pressure, and the start - up decline has a dragging effect [29]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The exit of overseas devices boosts PVC sentiment. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" sentiment may have a short - term boosting effect on low - valuation varieties. Microscopically, the exit of a 450,000 - ton PVC production capacity of a US company boosts market sentiment, but the domestic over - supply expectation still exists [30]. - **Outlook**: The exit of overseas devices improves market sentiment, but the rebound space of PVC is limited, and the pressure lies in profit repair and the resumption of domestic marginal production capacity. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda may oscillate. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" sentiment may have a short - term boosting effect. Microscopically, the decline in liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and there is an expectation of production cuts, but it has not been implemented yet. The fundamentals are under pressure [33]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor. The disk should be observed, and the downward space is limited. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [36]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Presents the latest values and change values of inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [38]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical varieties, including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-17 美国失业率创四年新⾼，⾦价短线⾛强 美国就业数据延续降温趋势，失业率⾛⾼、薪资增速放缓且前期⾮农下 修，强化美联储对劳动⼒市场⻛险的关注，宽松预期与实际利率下⾏逻辑 未被破坏。在消费尚具韧性的背景下，政策节奏偏渐进，⻩⾦对宏观再定 价反应充分，回调以技术性消化为主，中期配置价值依然突出。 重点资讯： 1） 特朗普派出的特使在柏林与乌克兰总统泽连斯基（Volodymyr Ze lenskiy）会谈时提出了史无前例的提议，愿意为乌克兰提供北约式 的安全保障，但警告说这样的协议不会永远摆在桌面上。 2） 纽约联储约总裁威廉姆斯周一表示，美联储上周降息使其处于应 对未来挑战的良好位置，并补充说，他认为随着就业市场降温，通胀 将会回落。 3） 特朗普周一签署行政命令，将芬太尼列为"大规模杀伤性武 器"，此举极大地扩展了美国政府打击这种合成阿片类药物非法贩运 的权限。该药物每年造成数以万计的美国人因过量使用而死亡。 4）美国10月零售销售月率 0%，预期0.1%，前值由0.2%修正为0.1%。 5）美国11月失业率 4.6 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-17 非农抬升降息预期，铂钯震荡上行 铂观点：宏观⽀撑叠加现货供应趋紧，铂价震荡上⾏ 主要逻辑：据美国劳工统计局报告显示，美国11月非农就业人口增长 6.4万人，高于预期值5万人，但11月失业率同样高于预期值4.5%、录 得4.6%，市场对于明年1月美联储降息预期小幅抬升，贵金属价格存 在一定支撑。此外，现货供应趋紧同样支撑铂价。展望未来，供给方 面，南非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及 极端天气风险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车 催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和 投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹 性。综合来看，在供需基本面韧性的背景下，铂价保持坚挺。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议滚动参 与多铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货短缺⽀撑价格，短线或偏强运⾏ 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务部 正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进 ...