1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal ratings include: Copper - "震荡" (Oscillation); Alumina - "震荡" (Oscillation); Aluminum - "短期仓单数量和累库仍需观察，预计价格区间震荡；中长期消费仍有隐忧，视库存和升贴水拐点区间思路偏逢高空" (Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points); Aluminum Alloy - "震荡" (Oscillation); Zinc - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Lead - "震荡" (Oscillation); Nickel - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Stainless Steel - "震荡" (Oscillation); Tin - "震荡" (Oscillation) [1][5][6][9][10][13][14][16][17][20][21] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff game continues, and the expectation of domestic policy stimulus is increasing. Overall, the macro - expectation is volatile, and non - ferrous metals will continue to oscillate. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of basic metals are gradually seasonally loosening, and domestic inventories are gradually rising seasonally. In the short - to medium - term, tariff uncertainty and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Focus on structural opportunities, cautiously consider short - term long positions in aluminum and tin on dips, and short zinc ingots on rallies. In the long - term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and shorting opportunities on rallies for some varieties with excess or expected excess supply and demand can be considered [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The time for the US copper tariff to take effect may be advanced, and the price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's claim to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper has led to a significant increase in COMEX copper prices. The US Secretary of Commerce said the tariff may be implemented at the end of the month, weakening the siphon effect on copper in the US and alleviating the tight supply - demand situation in non - US regions, putting pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper ore processing fees continue to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. The demand is weakening as the consumption off - season approaches. Domestic and foreign inventories are accumulating again, and the risk of LME squeeze has eased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, but demand is marginally weakening, and the US copper tariff is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. It is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [5][6] 3.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Market rumors suggest that the mining permit issue has eased, and the alumina futures price has declined. - **Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and operating capacity and inventories are gradually rising. The Guinean government's new policies may increase corporate costs and affect the bottom - line expectation of ore prices. - **Outlook**: Cautious reverse arbitrage [6] 3.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory has significantly accumulated, and aluminum prices have declined under pressure. - **Logic**: The short - term tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, but there is still strong uncertainty. The fundamentals have shown marginal weakening signs, with inventory accumulation, spot discounts, and a decrease in the risk of near - month squeeze. - **Outlook**: Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points [9] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and the futures price has corrected. - **Logic**: Short - term, ADC12 faces a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, while demand is in the off - season. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 is expected to rise in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate at low levels, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [10][12] 3.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are in excess, and zinc prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the prices of black - series products are rebounding. The supply of zinc ore is loosening in the short - term, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and demand expectations are general. Zinc ingot inventories are accumulating, and the support for zinc prices is weakening. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will continue to increase, and downstream demand will enter the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13][14] 3.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the spot market, the discount has narrowed, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead is at a low level. On the demand side, the off - season has not completely passed, but the start - up rate of lead - acid battery factories is higher than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: The US tariff suspension period is postponed to August 1st, but the announced tariffs are high, and the macro - situation is still uncertain. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the start - up rate of battery factories is recovering. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost support of recycled lead is stable, and lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15][16] 3.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports, and nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may loosen. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly declined. The inventory has significantly accumulated, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports to Indonesia. Nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term, and long - term trends need further observation [16][17][18] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to weaken, and the stainless - steel futures price is running weakly. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Although the futures price is rising, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In terms of supply and demand, stainless - steel production decreased in June but remained at a high level historically. As demand exits the peak season, there is a risk of weakening demand. Inventory has decreased, and the pressure of structural surplus has been alleviated. - **Outlook**: The weakening cost weakens the support for steel prices, but beware of the possibility of an expanded scale of production cuts due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. The demand side is putting pressure on steel prices as it exits the traditional peak season. Focus on inventory changes and cost changes in the future. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short - term [20] 3.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Logic**: The shortage of domestic tin ore is intensifying, and the replacement of Indonesian refined tin export licenses has brought new supply problems. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, strengthening the bottom support for tin prices. However, the impact of the short - term interruption of Indonesian exports may be limited, and the terminal demand for tin will weaken marginally in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: The tightness of the ore end supports the tin price. Whether the tightness at the ore end can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of the tin price in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a warm and volatile trend, while the bond market sentiment is cautious. The main anti - involution theme in the stock index futures continues to develop, and option trading should focus on covered defense. The bond market is affected by multiple factors, and attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis points of IF, IH, IC, and IM in the current month are - 8.67, - 6.01, - 12.46, and - 20.11 respectively, with changes of - 8.46, - 3.84, - 8.38, and - 11.81 compared to the previous trading day. The inter - period spreads (current month - next month) are 13.6, 3.2, 57, and 68.8 respectively, with changes of - 1, - 0.4, 7.4, and 4.8. The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM change by - 19160, - 14582, - 14672, and - 28320 hands respectively [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated after rising on Monday, standing firm at 3500 points with trading volume shrinking to 1.5 trillion yuan. The large - and small - cap stocks showed differentiation. The banking sector had a momentum effect, and there is a possibility of a tail risk of crowding in the banking sector. The main anti - involution theme continues to develop, and the anti - involution trading is expected to last until the Politburo meeting in July. During the release of the semi - annual report forecasts, the profit of the cyclical chain industries has improved, and the industries with a large upward adjustment of the ROE consensus expectation in June generally have excess returns. A - shares are insensitive to overseas tariffs. It is recommended to allocate IM long positions [1][5] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety decreased significantly compared to the liquidity high on Friday. The weighted implied volatility decreased by 1.05%, and the sentiment indicator (PCR of open interest) decreased by 1.29% on average. During the period of continued market volatility, it is recommended to focus on covered defense [2][5] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter have different changes. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis points also have corresponding changes. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing [6] - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of treasury bonds mostly increased. The central bank's net injection of funds was offset by the approaching tax period, and the inter - bank funding rate mostly increased. The better - than - expected credit and import - export data in June also had a negative impact on the bond market. The improvement in risk appetite and better - than - expected economic data are negative for the long - end of the bond market, while the central bank's care for the funding side and large banks' continuous purchase of short - term bonds are positive for the short - end. It is appropriate to pay attention to the steepening of the yield curve [2][6][7] Economic Calendar - On July 14, 2025, China's export amount in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the new RMB loans in June were 22400 billion yuan, both better than expected. On July 15, the data of China's industrial added value in June and the US CPI in June are yet to be released [8] Important Information and News Tracking - Financial data: In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in the social financing scale in the first half of the year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8] - Exports: In June, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars. In the first half of the year, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.9%. The trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [9] - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced that the daily order volume (excluding self - pick - up and free purchases) exceeded 80 million [9] - The Fed's Harker said that the inflation target has not been reached, and it is still very important to maintain a tight monetary policy. There is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and there is uncertainty about the economic situation later this year [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 10, 2025, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodities advanced, with metals and energy & chemicals leading the gains [2][9][11] - The top three gainers were poly - silicon, glass, and coking coal, while the top three decliners were rapeseed oil, eggs, and copper (BC) [9][10][11] - The report also provided analyses and outlooks for iron ore, ferrosilicon, and lithium carbonate [15][22][29] Summary According to the Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 10, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and most commodities advanced, with metals and energy & chemicals leading the gains [9][11] - Poly - silicon rose by 5.5% with open interest increasing by 1.5% month - on - month; glass climbed by 5.2% with open interest decreasing by 10.1% month - on - month; coking coal went up by 4.2% with open interest decreasing by 2.3% month - on - month [9][11] - Rapeseed oil dropped by 0.8% with open interest decreasing by 2.4% month - on - month; eggs fell by 0.7% with open interest decreasing by 7.5% month - on - month; copper (BC) declined by 0.5% with open interest decreasing by 1.8% month - on - month [10][11] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Iron Ore - On July 10, iron ore increased by 3.7% to 763.5 yuan/ton. The demand is high, and fundamentals have no obvious contradiction. After the upward movement, the futures price reached an important resistance level, and the spot market is dominated by wait - and - see sentiment. Short - term price fluctuation is expected [15][17] - Overseas mines ended their end - of - quarter shipment rush this week, with shipments falling month - on - month. The arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded slightly but was lower than expected, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel enterprises' profit rate has stabilized, and molten iron output remains at a high level year - on - year. Ports slightly destocked due to lower - than - expected arrival and high demand, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [16][17] 1.2.2 Ferrosilicon - On July 10, ferrosilicon increased by 3.6% to 5576 yuan/ton. The current supply - demand relationship is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap filling in the future, increasing market destocking difficulty. The price upward driving force is insufficient, but due to industry losses and cost support, the futures market is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to electricity cost adjustment [22][24] - On the supply side, manufacturers' operating rate rebounded from a low level, and overall supply tends to increase. On the demand side, steel product output remains high, but there is an expectation of a slight decline in finished steel product output during the off - season. The support duration of steelmaking demand for ferrosilicon prices needs cautious consideration. Hebei Iron and Steel's July bidding started with a purchase volume of 2,700 tons, an increase of 500 tons month - on - month. Magnesium metal manufacturers have growing sentiment to support prices, but downstream acceptance of high - priced sources is still cautious [23][24] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 10, lithium carbonate decreased by 0.4% to 64180 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate [29][31] - The market sentiment of "anti - involution" continues to ferment, and futures warehouse receipts are not high, so the price strengthened slightly in the short term. Weekly output decreased slightly month - on - month, domestic lithium ore output maintains growth, but imported lithium salts are expected to decline. From January to June, domestic cathode materials maintained growth. July is the traditional off - season, but demand production scheduling expectation is good, and leading enterprises also have signs of purchasing. Social inventory continues to accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously destocked recently. Policy changes are significant, with domestic anti - involution sentiment fermenting and the US "Big Beautiful Act" having a negative effect on demand [30][31] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals since May 2025 and reviews relevant export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [34][35] - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Notice on Further Increasing Policy Support for Stabilizing Employment", proposing policy measures from 7 aspects to promote high - quality economic development [34][35] - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening fair competition review and intensifying anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement on July 9, 2025 [34][35] - Starting from January 1, 2025, the basic pension levels for retirees who have gone through retirement procedures in accordance with regulations and receive monthly basic pensions by the end of 2024 will be increased by 2%, with the overall adjustment level being 2% of the monthly average basic pension of retirees in 2024 [34][35] 2.2 Industry News - Benzene futures and options will be listed for trading on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange at 9:00 and 21:00 on July 22, 2025, respectively. The first batch of benzene futures contracts to be listed are PL2601, PL2602, PL2603, PL2604, PL2605, PL2606, and PL2607 [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak pattern in the industrial chain persists, especially in the aromatic hydrocarbon chain. The start - up rates of polyester, texturing, weaving, and downstream of styrene have declined significantly. After a short "catch - up rise" of chemicals relative to crude oil, the market may gradually recognize the downturn in the real - economy industries [2] - OPEC+ is considering a production increase in September, and will complete a 2.2 million barrels per day production increase from April to September, then may pause further production hikes. Global crude oil supply is gradually increasing [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: OPEC+ considering a September production increase, crude oil will continue to oscillate and consolidate. The market is worried about the impact of the trade war on the global economy. Macro - economic conditions are still relatively positive, but the futures price needs to see more inventory accumulation to break the oscillation pattern [7] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices face significant downward pressure. With OPEC+ increasing production, heavy - oil supply is rising, and demand - side indicators show that asphalt is overvalued [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face downward pressure. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and geopolitical factors have a short - term impact on prices [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price difference between low - and high - sulfur fuel oils continues to rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil may maintain a low - valuation operation due to increasing supply and falling demand [3][12] LPG - **Viewpoint**: Cost - side support is weakening, and the fundamental situation of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly in the short term [11] PX - **Viewpoint**: With the general rise of commodities, PX rebounds. The tight - balance pattern continues, but there is a downward trend in absolute prices due to poor terminal market support [15] PTA - **Viewpoint**: Following the general rise of commodities, PTA moves upward. However, it is expected to decline in the short term due to factors such as weakening crude oil prices and falling downstream demand [16] Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The pure benzene futures price rises due to positive news from downstream, positive macro - sentiment, and possible capital - driven behavior. The situation from July to August is favorable, but high inventories may suppress the rebound [17] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Styrene prices rise due to the rebound of market sentiment and short - squeezing in the downstream. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand fundamentals [18] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: With the decline in downstream start - up rates and the increase in its own start - up rate, EG will oscillate in the short term and may trend downward in the long term [19] Short Fibers - **Viewpoint**: The start - up rate remains stable weekly, and short - fiber prices follow the fluctuations of raw materials. Concerns exist about the continuous sharp decline in terminal weaving start - up rates [20] Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The start - up rate continues to decline, and the processing fee remains stable. The absolute price follows the fluctuations of raw materials [21] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: With limited spot support, methanol will oscillate. Positive market sentiment and stable supply and demand in the coal market are the main factors [24] Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supported by exports, urea may oscillate strongly in the short term. Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment, and supply is affected by high - temperature maintenance [25] LLDPE (Plastic) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, plastics will oscillate. However, the fundamental situation is still under pressure, with high supply and low demand [28] PP - **Viewpoint**: Driven by market sentiment, PP will oscillate in the short term. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively weak [29] PVC - **Viewpoint**: With strong expectations but weak reality, PVC will oscillate. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season [32] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Caustic soda is expected to operate strongly. Market sentiment is positive, and low inventory and low liquid chlorine prices are the main supports [34] Group 4: Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.17 with a - 0.05 change, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 50 with a 4 change [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, asphalt's basis is 196 with a - 16 change and 82300 warehouse receipts [36] - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: Different inter - variety spreads have their own values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 300 with a - 32 change [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a mixed trend with various commodities experiencing different price movements and market conditions. The overall market is influenced by a combination of factors including supply - demand dynamics, weather, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions. Each commodity is expected to have its own short - to - medium - term outlook, mainly ranging from "oscillation" to "oscillation with a certain bias" [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - **观点**：马棕6月库存高于预期，MPOB报告相对偏空，近期油脂或继续震荡分化 [5]. - **逻辑**：美豆类下跌，国内三大油脂震荡分化；美国对外贸易紧张，美元盘整，原油微跌；美豆长势良好，优良率66%，美国“大而美”法案提振生柴对美豆油需求，巴西将提高生柴掺混比例；国内进口大豆到港量大使豆油库存回升；MPOB报告显示马棕6月出口低于预期、库存高于预期，7 - 9月增产压力增大；国内菜油库存高位但缓慢下降，中加贸易关系不确定 [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - **观点**：巴西贴水再度上涨，盘面区间下方反弹，短期区间震荡运行 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际大豆贸易升贴水有变化，中国主要采购巴西大豆支撑其升贴水上涨；美豆多空交织区间震荡；国内供应压力大但盘面受成本支撑，豆粕累库、胀库压力增大，下游补库不足，油厂开机率下降；长期看9月大豆买船加速，四季度偏慢，能繁母猪存栏预示豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增 [6]. 3.1.3玉米/淀粉 - **观点**：市场心态承压，期现窄幅震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：期货主力合约低位震荡，现货贸易环节出货积极性提高，部分企业收购价调低；进口玉米拍卖成交率76%；24/25年进口同比下降，期末库存预计去化，但小麦和进口玉米补充供应，新季玉米成本下移，市场情绪转弱，关注库存去化和短期紧缺反弹风险；美玉米2025/26年度期末库存预计低于上月预测 [6][7]. 3.1.4生猪 - **观点**：消费走货一般，生猪现货回调，短期猪价由弱转强，中长期有供应压制风险 [8]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期7月计划出栏量减少，散户二育心态复苏，中期下半年出栏量或增长，长期产能仍在高位，若落后产能出清将带来向好预期；需求方面，肉猪比价和肥标价差下降；库存上，降重趋势有分歧，散户有累库趋势；节奏上，短期宏观调控带来利好，集团场出栏压力部分释放，中长期供应压力仍在，需关注库存和供给侧调整 [8]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - **观点**：资金情绪快速推涨胶价 [1][11]. - **逻辑**：受资金情绪影响，商品市场多头情绪浓厚，橡胶前期未跟涨估值偏低，且与宏观强关联，补涨合理；基本面短期无大矛盾，供给端亚洲产区雨季原料价格反弹，7、8月船货到港预计偏少；需求端部分轮胎企业开工恢复，库存积压好转，三季度或有去库交易，若宏观情绪维持，胶价易涨难跌 [1][11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面跟随上涨，整体维持区间震荡运行 [13]. - **逻辑**：受天胶冲高和商品市场情绪带动盘面走高，丁二烯价格本周企稳，但终端需求弱势，市场成交多为刚需，供应端压力累积，供需矛盾凸显，行情偏弱 [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - **观点**：棉价小幅波动，驱动不强，短期震荡 [13]. - **逻辑**：新棉25/26年度中国及海外主产国有增产预期，美棉面积下滑产量预计持平；需求端处于消费淡季，纺织厂开机下滑、成品累库，采购需求转弱；库存端全国商业库存同期偏低，新花上市前低库存格局难改支撑棉价，但新作增产预期抑制上方空间，关注天气变化 [13]. 3.1.8白糖 - **观点**：糖价小幅上涨，但上方高度受限，长期震荡偏弱，短期震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：25/26榨季全球糖市预期供应宽松，主产国均有增产预期；巴西入榨量和食糖生产量同比下滑，制糖比提高但食糖高产有变数；印度季风降雨利于甘蔗生长；国内进入纯销售期，产销率高，工业库存同比下滑，但进口预计增加；巴西出口增多，供应边际压力将显现 [15]. 3.1.9纸浆 - **观点**：商品普遍大涨，纸浆跟随走高，期货走势震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：期货跟随宏观氛围上涨，现货同步；供需数据偏弱势，欧洲港口库存走高，月度美金盘价格走低，下游纸制品产销季节性偏弱；但价格进入低位区间，金融市场走势偏暖，预计反弹继续但技术压力渐显 [16]. 3.1.10原木 - **观点**：现货下跌压力较大，盘面底部震荡，中期维持区间760 - 830运行 [17][18]. - **逻辑**：07合约交割使交割品货源流通压力大，现货有下跌压力，买卖双方成本提升；进入7 - 8月季节性淡季但需求平稳，去库缓慢，新一期外商报价提涨，整体现货处于筑底阶段；伴随交割博弈结束，市场回归基本面主导，关注基差变化 [17][18]. 3.2品种数据监测 - The report lists various commodities such as oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, etc., but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the given text. 3.3评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard for the expected price movement of commodities over the next 2 - 12 weeks, including "stronger," "oscillating with an upward bias," "oscillating," "oscillating with a downward bias," and "weaker," with the standard deviation defined as "1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price" [168].

图表 4: 硅锰: 日均产量: 中国 (周) 图表 5: 硅铁: 日均产量:中国(周) · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 吨/天 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第49周 第53周 图表 6: 硅锡企业:开工率:中国(周) 合金周度数据 2025年07月11日 研究员: | 余典 从业资格号 F03122523 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | | 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | | 薛原 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | | 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅羅 | 2025-07-11 | 2025-07-04 | 环比 | 硅铁 | 2025-07-11 | 2025-07-04 | 环比 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with glass, coking coal, and pure benzene leading the gains [1]. - Overseas macro: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit. There are concerns in the US employment market. - Domestic macro: The economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has a significant impact on domestic commodities. - Asset view: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Long - term, the weak - dollar pattern persists, and strategic allocation to resources like gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US led to a small rebound in the US dollar index. The "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years. There are hidden concerns in the US employment market such as rising permanent unemployment and continued increase in continued jobless claims, along with slower wage growth [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has affected commodities like coking coal, rebar, glass, and polysilicon. The June manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activities improved [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. In the fourth quarter, there is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies. Overseas, pay attention to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. The long - term weak - dollar pattern persists, and strategic allocation to resources like gold is recommended [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected, and fiscal policies will be implemented as planned. - **Overseas**: The inflation - expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index approaches the 3500 mark, with insufficient incremental funds, and the short - term outlook is volatile. - **Stock Index Options**: The probability of volatility decline is high, with deteriorating option liquidity, and the short - term outlook is volatile. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market remains volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, as well as tariff policies and shipping - company pricing strategies, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - For steel products, the macro sentiment fluctuates, and the futures prices are volatile. Pay attention to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and molten - iron production. - For iron ore, the small - sample molten - iron production decreases, and the price fluctuates upward. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten - iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics. - For other products such as coke, coking coal, silicon ferroalloy, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, various factors affect their prices, and the short - term outlook is mainly volatile [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For most non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the prices are affected by various factors such as tariffs, supply, and demand. The short - term outlook is mainly volatile, with some showing a downward trend [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term downward - volatile outlook. - Other energy - chemical products such as LPG, asphalt, and high - sulfur fuel oil are affected by different factors, and their short - term outlooks vary from volatile to downward [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock, the prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, weather, and policies, and the short - term outlook is mainly volatile. Some products like rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with volatile trends [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal outlooks are as follows: - Copper: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [6] - Alumina: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [7] - Aluminum: Expected to be "震荡偏强" (sideways with a slight upward bias) in the short - term and cautious about long - term consumption [10] - Aluminum alloy: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern in the short - term and have upward potential in the medium - term [11] - Zinc: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a slight downward bias) [15] - Lead: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [16] - Nickel: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a slight downward bias) in the medium - to - long - term, and strengthen in the short - term [21] - Stainless steel: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern in the short - term [24] - Tin: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows a game between US reciprocal tariff measures and domestic policy stimulus expectations, leading to repeated macro - expectations and continued volatility in the non - ferrous metals market. - From a supply - demand perspective, the supply - demand of base metals is seasonally loosening, with domestic inventory destocking slowing down and some varieties starting to accumulate inventory slightly. - In the short - to - medium - term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and low - buying short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin can be cautiously considered. - In the long - term, the demand prospects of base metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to sell short at high prices for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: US tariffs on copper may be implemented, pressuring the price of Shanghai copper. - **Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the US Commerce Secretary said the new tariff might be implemented at the end of July or on August 1st. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. As of July 10th, copper inventory increased. - **Logic**: Macro factors put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper ore processing fees are falling, raw material supply is tight, and overseas smelters are reducing production. Demand is weakening in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Arbitrage space has opened, but sentiment is stronger, and alumina prices continue to rise. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in various regions have increased. Guinea has introduced reform measures for the mining industry, including creating the Guinea Bauxite Index and exercising sales and transportation rights. Alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged on July 8th, and Xinjiang's alumina shipments will be affected in the short term. - **Logic**: In the short - to - medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and production capacity and inventory are increasing, but warehouse receipts are still low. The anti - cut - throat competition sentiment drives prices up. In the long - term, Guinea's policies may affect ore prices [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are oscillating with a slight upward bias. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and inventory in the main consumption areas decreased. Aluminum rod inventory increased. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased. The "Big and Beautiful" bill was approved, and Trump announced tariffs on imports from 14 countries. - **Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, and domestic anti - cut - throat competition expectations drive up sentiment. Aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is uncertain, and downstream demand may be under pressure in the second half of the year [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and aluminum alloy prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum widened. Thailand plans to levy a carbon tax. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, supporting costs. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. In the medium - term, demand may recover seasonally [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of ferrous metal prices boosts galvanizing demand, and zinc prices are strong in the short - term. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of July 10th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production. - **Logic**: Macro factors boost galvanizing demand. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. However, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, supply may exceed demand, and prices may fall [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained stable. Lead ingot inventory increased, and the Shanghai lead futures warehouse receipts increased slightly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the premium is stable. On the supply side, the cost of recycled lead is stable, and production is increasing slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The real - estate market has become a hot topic again, and nickel prices are strengthening in the short - term. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. There have been many investment and production - start events in the nickel industry in Indonesia, Canada, and Brazil. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The supply of raw materials may increase, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected that nickel prices will be weak in the medium - to - long - term and strengthen in the short - term [20]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Sentiment supports the upward movement of the stainless - steel futures market. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Stainless - steel production decreased in June, and social inventory decreased last week. - **Logic**: Cost support is weakening, and demand may weaken after the peak season. It is necessary to pay attention to the scale of production cuts by steel mills and inventory changes. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will fluctuate in the short - term [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, LME and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and Shanghai tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots remained unchanged. - **Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and Indonesia's refined tin exports are restricted, supporting prices. However, the impact may be limited, and terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate [25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of the monitored varieties (copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin), but no specific monitoring content is provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "oscillation" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures continued their moderate upward trend, influenced by factors such as expectations of real - estate policy implementation, strengthened anti - involution and supply - side expectations, and the high - dividend characteristics of banks and insurance attracting long - term funds. The short - term upside is related to the sustainability of the large - finance sector [6]. - Stock index options maintained a cautious outlook. Although the underlying assets performed strongly, the market did not see large - scale chasing trades, and investor sentiment became more cautious. The recommended operation is to focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. - Treasury bond futures had weak sentiment. The market was pressured by the strong performance of the equity market and the tightening of the capital market. With potential capital fluctuations in the future, the market should be dealt with from an oscillation perspective [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Performance Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 12.82 points, - 11.53 points, - 24.25 points, and - 31.37 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.58 points, - 1.41 points, - 0.76 points, and 0.30 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 18.0 points, 3.4 points, 54.4 points, and 71.2 points, with month - on - month changes of 2.8 points, - 2.6 points, 1.0 points, and 1.4 points. The total open interest changes were 11835 lots, 9632 lots, 5291 lots, and 11313 lots [6]. - **Logic**: The market continued its upward trend, with real estate, insurance, coal, and oil and gas leading the gains. The short - term upside depends on the large - finance sector [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6]. Stock Index Options - **Logic**: The underlying assets were strong, but the trading volume changed little, and the volatility increased slightly. Investor sentiment became more cautious. [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Performance Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts were 77570 lots, 65698 lots, 42333 lots, and 107326 lots respectively, with daily changes of 18031 lots, 19470 lots, 7862 lots, and 33059 lots. The open interests were 202427 lots, 158575 lots, 115251 lots, and 119369 lots, with daily changes of - 1254 lots, 1095 lots, - 144 lots, and 418 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market declined due to the strong equity market and tightened capital. Future capital fluctuations need attention, but there may be value in entering the market after the recent adjustment [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillation view. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium - term has higher odds [7] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual retail sales growth rate in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast of 1.2% [9]. - On July 9, 2025, China's CPI annual rate in June was 0.1%, with a previous value of - 0.1% and a forecast of 0%; the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%, with a previous value of - 3.3% and a forecast of - 3.2% [9] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The latest Fed meeting minutes showed that some participants were willing to consider lowering the policy interest rate if data met expectations, while others thought the federal funds rate might not be lowered this year [9]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals such as antimony and gallium, and will also review and approve legal export license applications [10] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [11][15][27]