Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy-driven logic strengthening. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, geopolitical risks, etc. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5] - The overseas stagflation trade has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. In the domestic market, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. In the overseas market, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and the stagflation trade has cooled down [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The June non - farm payrolls performance exceeded expectations, delaying the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are hidden concerns in the US employment market, and the bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [5] - **Domestic Macro**: The economic fundamentals have increased with resilience. The "anti - involution" policy has promoted the short - term rebound of commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. Domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year have been greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [5] - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets mainly have structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to gold and other resources should be maintained [5] 2. View Highlights - **Macro**: Domestic market may see moderate RRR and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented. Overseas, stagflation trade cools down. Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate. Key points to watch include micro - cap stock stampedes, dollar liquidity deterioration, option liquidity, and unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7] - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch are Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7] - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is expected to oscillate, and key points to watch are tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by domestic and foreign policies, the price fluctuations of the sector have increased. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch include special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron ore production and shipment, etc. [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals continue to oscillate. Copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to oscillate, while zinc and nickel may oscillate downward [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Due to OPEC+ over - production, energy and chemicals are expected to oscillate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. may fall or oscillate downward, while some products like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to oscillate upward [9] - **Agriculture**: Rubber stabilizes after a decline. Products such as grains, oils, and livestock are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch include weather, production and demand data, and market transactions [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias", for stock index options is "probability of volatility decline is relatively high", and for treasury bond futures is "maintaining oscillation" [7][8][10] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the stock market has recovered, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3500-point mark, and there are signs of incremental funds entering the market. The stock index option market shows signs of recovery, but there may be risks of decline in both volatility and the index. The treasury bond futures market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the central bank's operations [7][8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the equity market oscillated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3500-point mark. Non-metallic materials, telecommunications, and electronics led the gains, while banks and public utilities, which were relatively strong yesterday, ranked lower. The market rotation speed remains relatively fast. The sentiment has recovered, with market trading volume enlarging to around 1.5 trillion, significant increase in futures positions and narrowing of discounts, and the number of limit-up stocks remaining at around 70. There is a risk of missing out on the market, and if the market continues, attention can be paid to the possibility of adding long positions in IM contracts on dips. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the underlying assets rose again, with the GEM ETF leading the gains, rising 2.32%, and the SSE 50 ETF rising 0.6%. Driven by the rise in the underlying assets, the liquidity in the options market recovered rapidly, with the trading volume increasing by about 95%, and the trading volume of the GEM ETF options exceeding that of the 300 ETF options. Most contracts saw a slight increase in volatility. There may be risks of decline in both volatility and the index. The volatility trend strategy is to pay attention to the morning volatility and short volatility on rallies, and the main strategy is the covered call strategy [8] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined across the board. The strong performance of the equity market suppressed the intraday performance of the T main contract, but there was a slight rebound in the market at the end of the session, indicating that short sellers may have some profit-taking motivation. In the cash bond market, the central bank further net withdrew funds, and the funding rate may not decline further. With the tax payment at the middle of the month and the MLF withdrawal, the funding liquidity may fluctuate more. The market lacks catalytic factors in the short term, and the odds may decline after the previous decline in interest rates to a low level. The operation suggestions include maintaining an oscillating trend strategy, paying attention to short hedging at low basis levels, appropriately paying attention to basis widening, and the mid-term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [8][10] Economic Calendar - It lists the economic data release schedule for the current week, including the retail sales annual rate in the Eurozone in May, the CPI and PPI annual rates in China in June, the M2 money supply annual rate in China in June, the cumulative new RMB loans in China in June, and the cumulative social financing scale in China in June [11] Important Information and News Tracking - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's Chief Executive Officer, Leung Fung Yee, said at the Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025 that they have been actively cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. The technical preparations are progressing smoothly, and they aim to announce the implementation details to the market soon. They also hope to establish an offshore treasury bond commercial repurchase market in Hong Kong. A new round of anti-"involution" competition has begun, covering both traditional industries such as steel and cement and emerging industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries. The anti-involution policy should be implemented gradually and tailored to different industries [12] Derivatives Market Monitoring - It includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the text [13][17][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - **Logic**: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - **Logic**: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - **Logic**: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - **Logic**: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - **Logic**: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - **Logic**: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - **Logic**: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][8][9][11][13][14][16][17]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" associated production - cut expectation benefits have temporarily ended. Steel price upward momentum is weak due to impacts on finished product exports and lackluster spot price follow - up. However, high - temperature weather supports coal prices, and the iron ore shipment rush is basically over, with the furnace material fundamentals being acceptable. The industry's fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, with limited contradictions in each link. Iron water has slightly declined but remains at a high level year - on - year, and steel inventories are low, limiting the downside space. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and the degree of demand weakening [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly shipment rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and steel enterprises' iron water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2][8]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Two coal mines in Linfen and Changzhi, Shanxi, resumed production last weekend, with a total production capacity of 8.4 million tons, and the regional supply has recovered. Other regions' coal mines have basically maintained their previous production rhythms, and the overall supply is gradually increasing. On the import side, the Mongolian coal port transactions are active, and the regulatory area inventory continues to decline, but the China - Mongolia port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream coking enterprises are actively purchasing, but there are signs of market waiting due to the expectation of coal mine复产. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese alloys**: Manganese ore prices have slightly declined. With the gradual recovery of Australian ore shipments, a slight increase in port inventory, and the arrival of forward low - price futures ore, there is further downward space for ore prices. On the supply side, in a profit - recovery environment, manufacturers' motivation to resume production has increased, and the daily production of manganese silicon has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the finished product output is currently at a high level and stable, but the terminal steel demand is in the off - season, the steel inventory reduction has slowed down, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in finished product output. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the bidding price of the landmark steel mill on the market [3]. - **Silicon iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which increases the difficulty of market inventory reduction. The upward driving force for silicon iron prices is insufficient, but the industry is still in a loss state. With cost support, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [3][6][16]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, glass demand is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken, and upstream inventories are accumulating, with off - season pressure still existing. The sales in Shahe are average, mainly driven by rigid demand. On the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production soon, so the supply - side pressure still exists. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and the internal contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. In the medium term, it remains to be seen whether downstream demand can be stimulated [6][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are rumors that the photovoltaic industry is "anti - involution", with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the photovoltaic daily melting volume has slightly decreased, the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, and the demand expectation is weak. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to reduce prices. Emotions are interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6][13]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, there are signs of a marginal weakening in steel export pressure. The off - season fundamentals of steel have limited contradictions, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policy disturbances and the sustainability of off - season demand [8]. - **Iron ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and the spot market is still mainly in a wait - and - see state. In the short term, the ore price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the maintenance situation in Tangshan [8]. - **Scrap steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and its own driving force is insufficient. After the macro - environment cools down, the price is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Coke**: The supply and demand of coke are gradually tightening, and the expectation of price increases is strengthening. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to whether the coal price can continue to rise [10][11][12]. - **Coking coal**: The upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the spot price is temporarily stable. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [11][13][14]. - **Silicon manganese**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon manganese is becoming more relaxed, and the difficulty of market inventory reduction is increasing. The upward driving force for futures prices is insufficient, but with cost support, the price's downside space is limited. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Silicon iron**: The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of market inventory reduction. The upward driving force for silicon iron prices is insufficient, but with cost support, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of silicon iron's electricity cost [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold prices are in a state of oscillation due to the game between the convergence of interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about tariffs, and the market is waiting for the Fed's June meeting minutes [2] - The uncertainty of Trump's tariff plan provides support for the gold price, limiting its downside space, and the tariff dynamics and the Fed's June meeting minutes will be the main focus of gold market traders [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Key Information - On July 7, US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea [3] - German Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister Lindner emphasized that the EU is still willing to remain open and continue negotiations but will not accept any unequal conditions [3] - US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday instructing federal agencies to strengthen the provisions in the "Great American Act" to abolish or modify tax credits for solar and wind energy projects [3] Price Logic - The failure of the gold price to break through $3350 is mainly due to the cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, which weakens the attractiveness of gold. Although Trump's tariff announcement has short - term stimulated the safe - haven demand for gold, the stabilization of the US dollar has limited the rebound of the gold price [4] - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the face of potential tariff inflation pressure, as reflected by the sharp rise of the US dollar against the yen and the upward movement of US Treasury yields [4] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Bullish [4] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Long - term: Oscillating Bearish; Short - term: Oscillating [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [15] - **Logs**: Oscillating Weakly [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a pattern of multi - variety small fluctuations and oscillating consolidation. Each variety is affected by different factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade relations, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [1]. - After the end of the delivery game, the market gradually returns to being dominated by fundamentals. For example, the log market is expected to maintain an oscillating range in the medium term [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating bullish. The market is affected by multiple factors, with overseas biodiesel demand expectations being optimistic, the growth of US soybeans being good, the marginal reduction of the production increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June, palm oil still being in the production increase season, high domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and the expected decrease in rapeseed imports [4]. - **Information**: As of July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act boosts the demand expectation of US biodiesel for US soybean oil. Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. The inventory of domestic imported soybeans is rising, and the expected increase in the production of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited [4]. - **Logic**: Due to good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and concerns about trade disputes, US soybeans fell on Monday, while domestic oils and fats oscillated and rose on Tuesday, with palm oil being relatively strong. The macro - environment and industrial factors jointly affect the price trends of oils and fats [4]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Oscillating. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate in a range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [6]. - **Information**: On July 7, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were as follows: US Gulf soybeans were 223 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week; US West soybeans were 196 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans were 220 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week. On July 8, the average profit of domestic imported soybean crushing was - 8.72 yuan/ton [5]. - **Logic**: Internationally, factors such as the cancellation of relevant US economic and trade restrictive measures against China, the good growth of US soybeans, and the increase in Brazilian soybean premiums are intertwined. Domestically, the increase in soybean arrivals, the peak of oil mill crushing, and the insufficient downstream replenishment lead to an increase in soybean meal inventories [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Oscillating. The futures price reached a new low, and the auction turnover became lighter [7]. - **Information**: The mainstream spot price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2310 - 2330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Guangdong Port was 2420 - 2440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Logic**: In the futures market, some short - sellers took profits and left the market, and the bearish sentiment was released. In the spot market, the number of waiting vehicles in North China's deep - processing plants decreased, and the enthusiasm of the trading sector to sell increased [8]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Oscillating. The supply - side reform expectation boosts the sentiment of hog futures, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long term [8]. - **Information**: On July 8, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 15.05 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0.33%; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0.21% [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - control brings positive market sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter is partially released. In the medium and long term, the abundant supply of sows and the continuous increase in the number of piglets born since the beginning of the year bring supply pressure [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Oscillating. It maintains an oscillating range, and there is no major contradiction at present [11]. - **Information**: As of July 8, the prices of various rubber raw materials and products were reported, and the total number of US tire imports in the first five months of 2025 increased by 6.4% year - on - year [9]. - **Logic**: The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side is relatively stable in the short term but weak in the long - term expectation. Overall, it is in a state of pressure [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Oscillating. The unexpected incident of the device quickly pushed up the market, but the fundamentals are still under pressure [13]. - **Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions changed [12]. - **Logic**: The fire in a refinery's device affected the market sentiment, but the butadiene market is still facing problems such as weak demand and increasing supply pressure [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. The new crop has an expected increase in production, which restricts the upside space of the market, while the low inventory of old crops provides support [13]. - **Information**: As of July 8, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 9971, and the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - **Logic**: The new cotton in China and other major producing countries has an expected increase in production. The downstream is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton has been decreasing, but the rate has slowed down recently [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Long - term: Oscillating bearish; short - term: Oscillating. The new sugar - making season is expected to have a loose supply, and the price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Information**: As of July 7, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [14]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production is uncertain, India's monsoon rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the domestic sugar market has a high sales rate but increasing import pressure [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Oscillating. The warm atmosphere in the financial market cannot change the weak atmosphere of pulp [15]. - **Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained unchanged, and the new round of quotes from Chile's Arauco Company for July were reported [15]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand relationship of pulp is weak, but the price is at a low level, and there is a risk in short - selling. It is recommended to hold short positions and not chase short [15]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: Oscillating weakly. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [17]. - **Information**: The delivery situation of the 07 contract has affected the market, and the daily出库 volume of logs in July is more than 60,000 cubic meters [16]. - **Logic**: The demand for logs is stable throughout the year, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation increase reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom. After the end of the delivery game, the market returns to being dominated by fundamentals [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 8th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rising by 7% [2][10][13] - The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), poly - silicon, and silicon metal, while the top three decliners were egg, ethenylbenzene, and rapeseed meal [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On July 8th, equity index futures increased, CGB futures decreased. Among commodity futures, there were more gainers. SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rose 7%. The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe) (7.2% increase, 1.6% month - on - month open interest increase), poly - silicon (7.0% increase, 5.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and silicon metal (2.8% increase, 0.6% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were egg (1.3% decrease, 4.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), ethenylbenzene (1.1% decrease, 0.9% month - on - month open interest decrease), and rapeseed meal (0.9% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][13] 3.1.2 Daily Rise 3.1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On July 8th, silicon metal rose 2.8% to 8215 yuan/ton. The fundamental surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the price rebound was driven by policy expectations. Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment was strong, but adjustment risks due to sentiment cooling should be guarded against. Northwest factories' sudden production cuts strengthened price support. If the production - cut scope expanded, July's supply - demand situation might improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure would be hard to ease. In the southwest, the resumption of production was slower than in previous years, but some factories had restarted. As prices rose, enterprises' willingness to resume production and hedge increased, which might exacerbate supply - side pressure. Demand was weak, and inventory might accumulate again [17][18][20] 3.1.2.2 Aluminium Oxide - On July 8th, aluminium oxide rose 2.8% to 3110 yuan/ton. There was no short - to - medium - term shortage of bauxite, and operating capacity and inventory were gradually recovering. Market sentiment was volatile, with more spot inquiries but a strong wait - and - see atmosphere in transactions. Warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and there were concerns in the futures market. The long - term logic focused on bauxite prices. Short - term sentiment was volatile, so it was advisable to wait and see in the short term. If market sentiment faded in the medium - to - long term, one could cautiously short far - month contracts [21][23] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Ethenylbenzene - On July 8th, ethenylbenzene fell 1.1% to 7276 yuan/ton. In a period without clear driving factors, it fluctuated in a narrow range. Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, crude oil prices fell, and market bullish sentiment weakened. The spot supply - demand weakened, and port inventories increased, but the end - of - month short - squeeze sentiment was strong. Fundamentally, supply returned, demand weakened, and the market was moving towards inventory accumulation. The fundamentals of pure benzene improved marginally. Two points should be noted: the low inventory level of the ethenylbenzene industry chain and the better fundamentals of pure benzene from July to August [26][27][29] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 7th local time that she expected to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues between China and the U.S., and the two sides would discuss expanding cooperation [34] - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Premier Li Qiang [34] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect, including expanding the scope of participating institutions in Southbound Trading Connect and optimizing the offshore RMB bond repo business [35] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has been cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the trading scale of RMB - denominated Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise [35]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-08 OPEC+增产超预期，库存区域分布不均 衡导致外强内弱，能化震荡 石油输出国组织及其合作伙伴（OPEC+）已决定在8月超预期增产54. 8万桶/日，且预计9月将进一步增产。该组织领导层对市场消化额外原油 的能力持乐观态度，理由是全球经济前景稳定，市场基本面健康。我们看 到当前原油累库具有区域性的不均衡，中国库存升至五年高点，欧美国家 石油库存依旧位于中位偏低水平。这可能导致OPEC+的增产一时间还无法 施压于原油市场。但是中长期，随着产量增速的逐步累计，原油的过剩将 逐步具有普遍性。 板块逻辑： 化工延续震荡整理态势，市场并未有明显趋势。液体化工周一公布库 存，EB和EG库存环比攀升，BZ库存周度略降；当前EB和BZ库存均位于五年 同期最高或偏高水平，EG库存依旧是五年同期最低。高库存格局下反弹空 间将有限，低库存则可能受到供给意外减量的提振。甲醇太仓基差过去一 周崩塌式下跌，这对盘面09合约带来些许压力。聚酯产业链对需求的担忧 依旧拖累期价。 原油：沙特上调OSP且美国推迟加征关税，油价反弹 LPG：盘面回 ...

Report's Overall Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of silicon supply contraction is strengthening, and the price trend of new energy metals is becoming stronger. The central financial meeting has re - emphasized the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, enhancing investors' expectation of supply - side contraction in the silicon market, and the market sentiment has turned optimistic [2]. - In the short - to - medium term, the strengthened expectation of supply - side contraction has led to a significant increase in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, which has a positive impact on lithium carbonate. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the elimination of domestic self - priced production capacity, but lithium carbonate still faces the problem of long - term over - supply if there is no substantial reduction in lithium ore production [2]. Summary by Catalog I. Market Views 1. Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. The medium - term outlook is also oscillating [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - As of July 7, the spot prices of industrial silicon have slightly rebounded. The price of oxygen - containing 553 in East China is 8750 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 9050 yuan/ton [7]. - As of June 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [7]. - In May, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The cumulative export from January to May was 272,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [7]. - The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 105.5% and a year - on - year increase of 388.0%. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May was 197.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 150.0% [7]. - The central financial meeting and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the industry and the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity [7]. - **Main Logic**: The sudden production cut of large northwest factories has supported prices. If the production cut scope expands, the supply - demand situation in July may improve marginally; otherwise, the supply surplus pressure remains. The resumption of production in the southwest is slower than in previous years, but with the price rebound, some silicon factories have resumed production. The demand side is still weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased this week, but there is a possibility of re - accumulation [8]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental surplus pattern of industrial silicon remains unchanged. The price rebound is mainly driven by policy expectations, and the silicon price is expected to oscillate [8]. 2. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution policy is taking effect, and polysilicon prices are oscillating and rebounding. The medium - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [8]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.87% [8]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2780 lots, unchanged from the previous value [9]. - In May, China's polysilicon export volume was about 2097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The cumulative export from January to May was 9167.32 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.68%. The import volume in May was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. The cumulative import from January to May was 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.72% [9]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 150% [9]. - The central financial meeting emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition [10]. - **Main Logic**: The supply - side news in the silicon industry chain has been fluctuating. The polysilicon futures price has rebounded due to the policy. The production capacity in the southwest has increased with the arrival of the wet season, and the production in June - July is expected to exceed 100,000 tons. The photovoltaic installed capacity has increased significantly from January to May, but it has over - drawn the demand for the second half of the year, and the downstream product prices have started to fall [10]. - **Outlook**: The demand for polysilicon may weaken after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the second half of the year, but the anti - involution policy may cause large fluctuations in the supply side. The polysilicon price is expected to show wide - range oscillation [10]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: A large number of warehouse receipts have been cancelled, and the trend of lithium carbonate is strong. The medium - term outlook is oscillation [11]. - **Information Analysis**: - On July 7, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.6% to 63,660 yuan. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 1661 lots to 591,177 lots [11]. - On July 7, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan to 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 250 yuan to 60,950 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 660 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 61,600 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts decreased by 5481 tons to 15,555 tons [11]. - On July 4, Zangge Mining's subsidiary received a construction permit [11]. - **Main Logic**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market is fermenting, and smelters are under maintenance. The weekly production has slightly decreased, and domestic lithium ore production is increasing while imported lithium salts are expected to decline. The demand for cathode materials has been growing from January to June, and the demand in July is expected to be better than expected. The social inventory is still increasing, and the warehouse - receipt inventory has been decreasing [12]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation remains in surplus, but the reduction of warehouse receipts in the short term supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate [12]. II. Market Monitoring - Not provided with specific content for summary

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-08 对等关税延期到期日临近，资金谨慎驱动有 色回落 有⾊观点：对等关税延期到期⽇临近，资⾦谨慎驱动有⾊回落 交易逻辑：美元偏弱势及6月制造业PMI数据改善，这对有色有提振， 但随着美国对等关税延期到期日临近，资金趋于谨慎诱发获利了结， 整体来看，市场情绪从乐观转向谨慎。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐 步季节性趋松，LME金属库存整体偏低，但国内库存去化逐步放缓。 中短期来看，市场关注点重新聚焦美国对等关税，弱美元和低库存对 价格有支撑，但关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，主要关注结 构性机会，谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸短多机会，中长期来看，基本金属需 求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的 逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：LME挤仓⻛险缓和，铜价⾼位回落。 氧化铝观点：仓单依然低位，氧化铝近⽉⼤涨。 铝观点：累库幅度仍待观察，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围显现，铝合⾦有所回调。 锌观点：供需偏过剩，锌价震荡偏弱。 铅观点：成本⽀撑稳固，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：美国对等关税扰动再起，短期镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈 ...