1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Global styrene operating rates are at a relatively low level. As of January 19, 2026, the global styrene operating rate was 72.0%, down 0.5 pct month - on - month and 7.4 pct year - on - year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past six years [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Domestic Styrene Situation - As of January 15, 2026, the domestic styrene operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06 pct month - on - month and 7.7 pct year - on - year. The weekly output was 35.54 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous period. Domestic styrene plants were basically stable, with a plant in East China having a short - stop and a plant in South China increasing its load [3] Overseas Styrene Situation - As of January 19, 2026, the overseas styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.9 pct month - on - month and 7.8 pct year - on - year, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years. The 350,000 - ton FCFC2 plant in Taiwan, which shut down in mid - November 2025, restarted in mid - January 2026. A 550,000 - ton styrene plant in Saudi Arabia had an unexpected short - stop on January 15, and its originally planned maintenance in March or April would proceed as normal [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On January 19th, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton; the Guinean imported ore price was 63 US dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 US dollars/dry ton [1]. - On January 19th, the spot price index was 2641 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 8 yuan/ton [1]. - On January 19th, the futures inventory was 141,475 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 725 tons [1]. - On January 19th, the import profit and loss was 302 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 83 yuan/ton [1]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 19th, the SMM A00 average price was 23,870 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the premium and discount was -160 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - On January 19th, the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was 7,727 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 141 yuan/ton [1]. - On January 19th, the futures inventory was 69,671 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 361 tons [1]. - On January 19th, the aluminum import profit and loss was -2,457 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 40 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - On January 19th, the Baotai ADC12 price was 23,400 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton [1]. - On January 19th, the scrap price difference of raw aluminum was 2,454 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3,583 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 160 yuan/ton [1]. - On January 19th, the futures inventory was 187,938 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 11,136 tons [1]. - On January 19th, the import profit and loss was -42 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil price continues to fluctuate and consolidate. The geopolitical situation in Iran has significantly eased, and geopolitical factors have temporarily receded. The supply - demand pattern of the chemical industry is complex, and it is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset for investment [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Variety - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The supply - surplus pattern persists, but geopolitical factors remain the short - term focus. The outlook is for a volatile trend [8]. - **Asphalt**: High valuations are gradually being revised downwards. The market is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production policies and Venezuelan oil supply, with a long - term bearish outlook and a short - term trend of volatile decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical premiums have declined. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply exerts long - term pressure, but short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The outlook is for a volatile trend [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price fluctuates widely. It is affected by factors such as the expected release of Venezuelan oil and the substitution of green energy. The current valuation is low, and it follows the movement of crude oil. The outlook is for a volatile trend [12]. - **PX**: The fundamentals are under continuous pressure, lacking upward drivers. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with PXN expected to be sorted within the range of [300, 350] [13][14]. - **PTA**: Cost support is insufficient, and downstream negative feedback is strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with attention paid to the support level around 5000 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port has significantly reduced inventory, and the price has risen strongly. Although high inventory may limit the increase in the short term, there is a quarterly improvement. The outlook is for a volatile trend [16][18]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are tight, and the commodity atmosphere is favorable. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, the upward trend may continue [19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The main port inventory continues to accumulate, and the situation is difficult to reverse. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with limited rebound height [20][22]. - **Short - Fiber**: Demand sustainability is insufficient, and it fluctuates within a range. The price follows the movement of upstream raw materials, and processing fees are under some pressure [23][24]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is being compressed, and there is an expectation of processing fee repair. The absolute value follows the movement of raw materials, and the long - short position of "long PR03 and short TA03" can be continued [25][26]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [27]. - **Urea**: Agricultural demand slows down, and industrial demand is rigid. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with attention paid to downstream purchasing behavior and production enterprise order digestion [28]. - **LLDPE**: Maintenance has decreased, and the price has declined. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with limited downward space [32]. - **PP**: There is still macro - expectation support. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with attention paid to the impact of profit changes on maintenance willingness [33]. - **PL**: Supply has tightened. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with weak downstream demand support [34]. - **PVC**: "Export rush" provides support, and the downward space is limited. In the long term, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the market is expected to be volatile [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to run weakly. Inventory pressure is high, and profits may be squeezed [36][37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in spreads [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - variety spreads such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., are presented, showing the relative price relationships between different varieties [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption and escalating geopolitical risks have caused platinum and palladium prices to continue to fluctuate. The short - term platinum price is expected to fluctuate, with a long - term outlook of being oscillatingly stronger. The short - term palladium price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and the long - term price will oscillate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 615.1 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 0.48% [2]. - The recent floods in northern South Africa are expected to impact mine production, logistics, and supply stability. Geopolitical and trade frictions have also intensified. The nomination of the new Fed chair and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the short term, the platinum price may continue to fluctuate. In the future, South Africa still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity. The long - term outlook is oscillatingly stronger [2][3]. Palladium - As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 477.95 yuan/gram, with an increase of 0.64% [2]. - The market's previous expectation of a 50% high - tariff on palladium from the US on January 10 did not materialize, leading to a price correction. However, the US Department of Commerce's investigation report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support the price. In the short term, the palladium price may maintain a wide - range oscillation. Palladium shows significant structural pressure in demand. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price. The long - term outlook is oscillating [2][4]. Commodity Index - On January 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was not detailed. The commodity index was 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index was 2316.27, down 0.28% [50]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 19, 2026, was 2799.05, with a daily increase of 0.04%, a 5 - day decline of - 0.36%, a 1 - month increase of 9.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.21% [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term and its long - term upward driving force remains unchanged. Silver may have a convergent short - term increase, with a risk of high - level volatility decline, and is expected to maintain a high - level range in the long run [3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Gold - **Logic**: Driven by concerns over the escalation of US - Europe tariffs, the intraday New York gold price reached a new high of $4698 per ounce. Recent US economic data shows resilience, delaying the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation to June. The US - Europe tariff conflict continues to ferment, so the gold price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to events such as the US Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump tariff case on January 20, the release of November core PCE and GDP data on January 22, and the nomination of the new Fed chairman in late January [2] - **Outlook**: The long - term upward driving force for gold remains unchanged [2] 3.2 Silver - **Logic**: The silver price rose strongly, with the New York silver price rising nearly 6% and the SHFE silver price rising nearly 5% intraday. It was boosted by Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries and the fermentation of European counter - measures. The 1M and 3M silver lease rates have fallen to the 3% - 5% range. The key mineral tariff increase and the US - Iran geopolitical conflict have both eased. Considering the high silver volatility, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the volatility may decline from high levels [3] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the key mineral tariffs are not completely cancelled but a negotiation window of up to 180 days is set. The structural shortage of silver spot caused by hoarding demand has not been fundamentally resolved, so the silver price is expected to maintain a high - level range [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial product index was 2316.27, down 0.28% [45] 3.4 Precious Metals Index - On January 19, 2026, the precious metals index was 4417.55, with a daily increase of 2.07%, a 5 - day increase of 4.62%, a 1 - month increase of 18.84%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.51% [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. - For different sectors and varieties, the short - term judgments are mainly "oscillatory", with some showing "oscillatory upward" or "oscillatory downward" trends [16][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures price was 4728.6, with a daily increase of 0.17, a weekly increase of 0.11, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.8. The SSE 50 futures price was 3077.6, with a daily decrease of 0.08, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.74. The CSI 500 futures price was 8266, with a daily increase of 1.11, a weekly increase of 0.68, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.27. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8186.6, with a daily increase of 0.49, a weekly increase of 0.09, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.09 [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures price was 102.4, with no daily change, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.05. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures price was 105.785, with a daily decrease of 0.03, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.02. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures price was 108.04, with a daily decrease of 0.02, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.17. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures price was 110.92, with a daily decrease of 0.23, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.44 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.3691, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 0.23, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.12. The US dollar mid - price was 6.9703 pips, with a daily increase of 32, a weekly decrease of 80, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 187 [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.443 bp, with a daily decrease of 5.94, a weekly decrease of 2.97, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 53.91. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.8424 bp, with a daily decrease of 1.2, a weekly decrease of 3.58, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.49. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.24 bp, with a daily increase of 7 [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - Industries such as national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, and consumer services had relatively high daily and weekly increases, while industries like computer, telecommunications, and non - banking finance had declines [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 59.22, with a daily increase of 0.08, a weekly increase of 0.75, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.15. ICE Brent crude oil price was 64.2, with a daily increase of 0.69, a weekly increase of 1.87, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.4. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.109, with a daily decrease of 1.11, a weekly decrease of 1.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 16.22. ICE UK natural gas price was 98.39, with a daily increase of 13.42, a weekly increase of 33.88, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 31.87 [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 4601.1, with a daily decrease of 0.49, a weekly increase of 1.83, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.21. COMEX silver price was 89.945, with a daily decrease of 2.6, a weekly increase of 12.73, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 26.72 [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 12803, with a daily decrease of 2.31, a weekly decrease of 1.5, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.45. LME aluminum price was 3134, with a daily decrease of 1.06, a weekly decrease of 0.06, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.57. LME zinc price was 3209, with a daily decrease of 3.18, a weekly increase of 1.76, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.66 [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean price was 1056.25, with a daily increase of 0.31, a weekly decrease of 0.61, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.86. CBOT soybean oil price was 52.51, with a daily decrease of 0.87, no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 3.24, and a quarterly and annual increase of 8.16 [8]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 439.25, with a daily and weekly decrease of 0.22 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.47. Fuel oil price was 2526.6, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.38 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.11 [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper price was 101196.42, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.32 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.94. Aluminum price was affected by the potential shutdown of Mozal aluminum plant, with the price oscillating at a high level [12]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends, with rebar price decreasing and hot - rolled coil price having a certain increase in some periods. Iron ore price increased slightly, and coke and coking coal prices also had their own trends [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Prices of products such as soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil had different degrees of fluctuations [12]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The first half - week was driven by factors such as the weakening of the Fed's independence and better - than - expected US inflation data, while the second half - week was dragged down by factors such as the alleviation of concerns about key mineral tariffs, the easing of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strengthening of the US dollar due to initial jobless claims data [15]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, consumer spending showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest rate cut expectation was postponed to June [15]. - **Domestic Macro**: Policy support focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, social financing data showed strong corporate loan and bond financing, and inflation improvement clues were clear [15]. - **Asset Views**: The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. Viewpoints Summary - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to oscillate upward, stock index options to oscillate, and Treasury bond futures to oscillate [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate upward [16]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Black Building Materials**: Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory upward trends [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory downward trends [18]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show different trends, with some oscillating upward, some oscillating downward, and most oscillating [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the market is expected to continue its weak adjustment in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is an expectation of a low - level upward movement in the prices of furnace materials [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually rising. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the ground still need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decline due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the previous rally, the driving force for the futures market to continue rising is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost push of manganese silicon is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited. However, the current futures price valuation is low, and under the high - cost support, the risk of excessive short - selling should be guarded against [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the trend of the sector [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, the price center will still decline, and capacity de - stocking will be promoted [3]. 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is weakening, and the futures market is under pressure. The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill复产 rhythm slows down, the iron water output decreases, and the five major steel products' output growth slows down. The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The inventory is still being de - stocked, but the de - stocking speed is not obvious, and the inventory level is moderately high. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined, with both shipments and arrivals decreasing. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, arrivals have declined, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand side has rigid support, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. The port inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure expectation has increased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has increased significantly, and the supply has recovered. The electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption also keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate following the finished products [10]. - **Coke**: The steel mill's rigid demand has declined, and the implementation of the price increase has been postponed. The cost side support is strong, but the steel mill's iron water output has slightly decreased, so the price increase implementation is delayed. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is rising well, and the futures market is oscillating. The domestic supply is stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The demand side has seen an increase in winter restocking by coking enterprises, and the upstream coal mine inventory has been continuously digested. The spot price still has upward momentum, but the futures market's upward driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [12]. - **Glass**: The futures price has corrected, and the spot and futures markets have started to sell. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the large inventory in the middle reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, it will oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price has fallen at a low level, and the futures premium has decreased. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensifying. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long run [13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is loosening, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The cost push is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the futures price is running weakly. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is difficult to achieve high - level inventory digestion. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [15]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it follows the sector's weakening. The market has weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The cost is at a relatively high level, which supports the price bottom. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is at a low level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to follow the black sector, and the downward space is limited [17]. 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28% [103]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 19, 2026, has a daily increase or decrease of - 0.82%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 1.37%, a one - month increase or decrease of + 1.16%, and an increase or decrease since the beginning of the year of + 1.07% [105].

中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/ 10-0920 China Futures Daily Note 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China's GDP Surpassed 140 Trillion Yuan in 2025, Growing by 5.0%。 Futures ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face expectation is repeated but relatively stable. The raw material supply is tight, and the smelting end has disturbance expectations, with strong support on the supply side. Terminal consumption may improve, but the current supply - demand is weak, and domestic inventory is accumulating rapidly. In the short - to - medium term, after the rapid price increase, consumption is inhibited, and prices may experience a significant correction. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disturbance concerns remains unchanged. After the market sentiment stabilizes, opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel can be considered. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin is still subject to disturbances, with an expectation of tightening supply - demand, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The US December CPI data is in line with expectations; China's copper smelter has set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee at 0; China's electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 19 showed a slight improvement; a Chilean copper mine will go on strike, and a copper mine in Ecuador has postponed its production. - **Main Logic**: The Fed may continue to be loose, providing support for copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is increasing, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be optimistic. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [7][8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Main Logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the price fluctuations. The supply contraction is insufficient, the cost support is weak, but the price may fluctuate more due to more capital attention. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8][9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum increased, the Japanese port aluminum ingot premium increased, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month in December 2025. - **Main Logic**: The macro expectation is positive. The domestic production capacity is high, and the overseas new project progress is uncertain. The high price suppresses demand, but overall, the short - term price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating upward; medium - term: the price center is expected to rise [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the price of ADC12 was flat, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, the warehouse receipts decreased, and an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is strong. The supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and the demand is expected to improve. The inventory shows different trends. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Short - term and medium - term: oscillating upward [14][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector cools down, and zinc prices fall from a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the premium of zinc in different regions varied; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; LME no longer accepts the delivery of certain zinc brands. - **Main Logic**: The macro expectation is stable. The supply of zinc ore is still tight in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may oscillate at a high level, but there is a downward pressure in the long - term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [17][18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector cools down and the social inventory increases, so lead prices are under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, the price of lead ingots decreased, the social inventory increased, and LME no longer accepts the delivery of a certain lead brand. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [19][20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The expected policy competes with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel decreased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased; an Indonesian nickel company resumed production, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure is high, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quota is uncertain. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [20][22][23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Information Analysis**: The warehouse receipts of stainless - steel futures are unchanged, the spot price has a certain premium, the price of high - nickel pig iron increases, and the price of Indonesian domestic trade ore is expected to rise. - **Main Logic**: The cost support exists, the production may increase slightly, the demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [24][25]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The market competition intensifies, and tin prices adjust. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased; the spot price of tin decreased. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is disturbed, the production is difficult to increase, and the demand is growing. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [25][26][27]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Indexes - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on January 19, 2026: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28%. - The non - ferrous metal index on January 19, 2026 is 2799.05, with a daily increase of 0.04%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.36%, a monthly increase of 9.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.21% [152][153][155].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-01-20 政策预期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡 新能源观点：政策预期反复，新能源⾦属宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格局，供应扰动担忧持续，但价格快 速上涨后，下游消费趋于谨慎；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，多晶硅收 储平台成立，但反垄断担忧让供应收缩预期淡化。中短期来看，政策 预期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较 强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但 需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推 高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：关注西北开⼯变化，硅价有所⽀撑。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格延续震荡。 碳酸锂观点：基本⾯较强，锂价⾼位震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 ...