1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is repetitive but stable, and base metals will oscillate and rise. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions will continue to support base metal prices, but macro support has weakened. One can cautiously focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up, and also consider low - absorption and long - position opportunities for copper after its price decline. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - For different varieties: copper prices will adjust in the short term; alumina prices will be under pressure and oscillate; aluminum prices will oscillate upwards; aluminum alloy prices will oscillate strongly; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will oscillate; nickel prices will oscillate; stainless steel prices will oscillate; tin prices will oscillate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Due to tight US monetary liquidity, copper prices have adjusted in the short term. The medium - term outlook is oscillating strongly. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the decision on further rate cuts in December is undetermined. The US financial system's capital situation has worsened. In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of November 6, copper inventory increased, and the spot price was at a premium. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed's rate cut and Powell's slightly hawkish speech, along with concerns about tight US money market liquidity, led to a decline in risk asset prices, including copper. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply disruptions increased, processing fees were low, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling increased, causing a contraction in supply. On the demand side, copper inventory did not decline significantly, but the spot price turned to a premium, indicating stronger downstream purchasing willingness. If inventory continues to decline, the price adjustment may be limited [7][8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices will be under pressure and oscillate. - **Analysis**: On November 6, alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipt increased. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has amplified price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and supply contraction is not obvious. China is still in a strong inventory - building trend, and ore prices have loosened slightly. The price is under pressure, but as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, aluminum prices will oscillate upwards. The medium - term outlook is oscillating strongly, and the price center is expected to rise. - **Analysis**: On November 6, the average price of AOO aluminum increased, aluminum bar inventory increased, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased. There were also news about power agreements of aluminum plants and environmental protection warnings in some regions. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and the Sino - US tariff suspension consensus have made the macro sentiment repetitive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and there are environmental protection policies, while overseas supply has marginal disruptions. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, terminal demand is stable, and social inventory reduction has slowed down. Overall, in the short term, the price will oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand is resilient [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, and the price will oscillate strongly in the short term and oscillate in the medium term. - **Analysis**: On November 6, the price of ADC12 increased, and the average price of AOO aluminum also increased. The US Aluminum Association proposed to ban UBC scrap exports, indicating local shortages. The estimated retail market scale of narrow - sense passenger cars in October decreased month - on - month. - **Logic**: In terms of cost, scrap aluminum supply is tight, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate increased slightly, but some alloy plants face the risk of production cuts. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, especially in automobile sales. Overall, with strong cost support and weak improvement in supply - demand, the price will oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The export window has opened, and zinc prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the long term. The overall performance is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On November 6, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount. As of November 6, zinc ingot inventory decreased. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining due to an earthquake. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, Sino - US economic and trade relations are easing, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clear. On the supply side, zinc ore supply has loosened in the short term, processing fees have increased, and smelters' profitability is good, with high production willingness. The export window has opened, relieving domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic market is entering the off - season, and new orders are limited. Overall, domestic social inventory may not accumulate further, and the LME's rule change eases the squeeze - out pressure on LME zinc [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory is slightly accumulating, and lead prices will oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: On November 6, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained stable, the price of lead ingots decreased, and social inventory increased. Some lead ingots were transferred to social warehouses for delivery, and some regenerative lead smelters resumed production. - **Logic**: In the spot market, the premium remained stable. On the supply side, regenerative lead smelters resumed production, but primary lead smelters had many overhauls, and weekly production decreased slightly. On the demand side, although some lead - acid battery factories had short - term production cuts due to high lead prices, it is the peak demand season, and the overall operating rate is high. Considering supply - demand, cost, and macro factors, lead prices will oscillate strongly [17][19]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and nickel prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On November 6, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia strengthened the crackdown on illegal nickel mining, and a company in Mongolia is exploring copper - nickel projects. - **Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. Fundamentally, the supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, the production of intermediate products has recovered, nickel salt prices have weakened slightly, and the market is in surplus with large inventory accumulation. One should focus on changes in LME nickel inventory and RKAB quotas [20][22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and stainless steel prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: The latest stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased. The spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a premium. The average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased. The Indonesian government allocated special funds for mining and smelting projects. - **Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium have weakened, reducing cost support. In October, stainless steel production increased, but downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and there may be inventory pressure in the off - season. Overall, the price will oscillate within a range [23][26]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline, and tin prices will oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: On November 6, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased, and the price of tin ingots increased. - **Logic**: Supply constraints still exist, providing strong support for tin prices. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, the supply of refined tin is expected to tighten. In the future quarter, the shortage of tin ore in China is difficult to significantly ease, and processing fees will remain low. However, after Yunxi's resumption of production, the operating rate of refined tin has increased, and inventory may accumulate slightly, limiting price increases [26]. 3.2行情监测 No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only variety names are listed, so no detailed summary can be made. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On November 6, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index, all showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.50%, 0.61%, and 0.45% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.64% on that day, decreased by 0.07% in the past 5 days, decreased by 0.30% in the past month, and increased by 7.44% since the beginning of the year [151][153].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6, equity indices rose while most CGB futures fell. Most commodities rose, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [10][13]. - China conducts license reviews for rare earths and related items in accordance with laws and regulations, and actively applies facilitation measures such as general licenses to promote compliant trade of items under export control [39][40]. - The Chinese Government attaches great importance to and is actively advancing work related to its accession to CPTPP [39][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On November 6, equity indices rose while most CGB futures fell. Most commodities rose, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [10][13]. - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures are paraxylene, coking coal, and PTA, while the top three decliners are SCFIS(Europe), bitumen, and propylene [11][12]. - In China's financial futures, equity indices rose, with IC increasing by 1.7%, and most CGB futures fell, among which TL fell by 0.3% while TS rose slightly [13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Coking Coal**: On November 6, coking coal increased by 2.4% to 1290.5 yuan/ton. In the short term, the fundamentals remain sound, and it is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to winter stockpiling and inventory replenishment in the industrial chain. Supply is at a low level due to disturbances, and downstream coking enterprises still have enthusiasm for inventory replenishment [18][21]. - **Coke**: On November 6, coke increased by 2.1% to 1776.5 yuan/ton. After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are under significant profit pressure, and expectations for a fourth round of increases are currently low. However, coke costs provide strong support, and the overall supply and demand remain healthy [26][30]. - **TSR 20**: On November 6, TSR 20 increased by 2.1% to 12130 yuan/ton. The price may maintain a trend of oscillating at the bottom with high elasticity. Recent market trends are mainly driven by macro factors, and 11 - month import pressure may be relatively significant [33][36]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - China conducts license reviews for rare earths and related items in accordance with laws and regulations, and actively applies facilitation measures such as general licenses to promote compliant trade of items under export control [39][40]. - On November 5, MOFCOM hosted a roundtable meeting with foreign - funded enterprises in Shanghai, and relevant officials provided policy interpretations [39]. - The Chinese Government attaches great importance to and is actively advancing work related to its accession to CPTPP [39][40]. - King Maha Vajiralongkorn of Thailand will pay a state visit to China from November 13 to 17, which is the first visit to China by a Thai king since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Thailand [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Assuming the incremental shipment guidance target is consistent with the incremental production guidance target, the year - on - year incremental shipments of the four major mining companies in Q4 2025 will be approximately 2.1 million tons. As of October 24, 2025, the year - on - year incremental shipments of the four major mining companies for the remaining period of Q4 will be approximately 5.4 million tons. After mutual verification, the year - on - year incremental shipments of the four major mining companies will not be high in the next two months [2][4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - Combining the quarterly reports of the four major mining companies and Mysteel data, under given assumptions, the year - on - year incremental shipments of the four major mining companies will not be high in the next two months. Vale's Q4 production is expected to decrease by 1 Mt y/y, and its remaining Q4 shipment volume is projected to increase by 1.6 Mt y/y. BHP's Q4 2025 production is anticipated to rise by 0.5 Mt y/y, and its remaining Q4 shipment volume is expected to grow by 1 Mt y/y. FMG's Q4 2025 shipment volume is forecast to continue increasing by 0.6 Mt y/y, and its remaining Q4 shipment volume is expected to remain flat y/y. Rio Tinto's shipment progress is slow, and it may boost shipments at the end of the year, with Q4 shipment volume projected to increase by 2 Mt y/y and the remaining Q4 shipment volume's y/y growth estimated to be around 2.7 Mt [12][13][14]. 3.2 Quarterly Reports 3.2.1 Vale - Vale's 2025 annual production guidance target is 325 - 335 Mt, an increase of 2 Mt compared with 2024. The cumulative completion progress in the first three quarters is 74.4%, slightly higher than the past four - year average. Q4 production is expected to decrease by 1 Mt y/y. Assuming shipment guidance target increment is synchronized with production, the full - year shipment volume is expected to increase by 2 Mt y/y. As of October 24, the cumulative shipment volume has increased by 0.4 Mt y/y, and the remaining period's shipment volume is projected to rise by 1.6 Mt y/y [18][19][27]. - In Q3 2025, Vale's total iron ore production reached 94.4 Mt, a y/y increase of 4% (3.4 Mt). Pellet production was 7.997 Mt, a y/y decrease of 2.366 Mt but a slight increase compared with Q2. Iron ore sales totaled 86.0 Mt, 4.2 Mt higher y/y. Inventory increased by 4.5 Mt, mainly due to PFC in China [21][22][23]. - Northern System: Q3 production reached 48.737 Mt, basically flat y/y. S11D output reached 23.6 Mt (up 1.5 Mt y/y), offset by Serra Norte's 1.5 Mt y/y decrease. Southeastern System: Q3 production reached 22.721 Mt, a y/y increase of 1.135 Mt. Southern System: Q3 production reached 13.783 Mt, a y/y increase of 1.04 Mt [24][25][26]. 3.2.2 BHP - BHP's 100% basis production volume guidance for FY26 remains unchanged, increasing to 284 - 296 Mt compared with FY25, a y/y growth of 2 Mt. In Q3 2025, WAIO's production volume increased by 0.5 Mt y/y, and it is expected to continue rising by 0.5 Mt y/y in Q4 2025. Assuming shipment guidance target increment is synchronized with production, the full - year shipment volume is expected to increase by 2 Mt y/y. As of October 24, the cumulative y/y shipment volume of BHP's Australian operations in FY26 decreased by 1 Mt, and the remaining 2025 shipment volume is projected to increase by 1 Mt y/y [46][47][51]. - In Q3 2025, BHP's iron ore production reached 64 Mt, a y/y decrease of 0.54 Mt. WAIO had solid production with record material mined (up 9%) and strong shipments during planned maintenance. Samarco's production increased after recommissioning and ramp - up, and its FY26 production guidance remains at 7 - 7.5 Mt [48][49][50]. 3.2.3 FMG - In Q3 2025 (Q1 of FY26), FMG's total iron ore shipment volume reached 49.7 Mt, 4% higher than Q1 of FY25, setting a new record. The quarterly report maintains FY26's total shipment volume guidance at 195 - 205 Mt, an increase of 5 Mt compared to FY25. The Q3 2025 target completion rate reached 24.6%, slightly higher than the past four - year average. Q3 2025 shipment volume increased by 1.9 Mt y/y, and Q4 2025 is expected to continue growing by 0.6 Mt y/y. As of October 24, the cumulative y/y shipment volume of FMG in FY26 has increased by 4 Mt, and the remaining Q4 2025 shipment volume is projected to remain flat y/y [66][67][68]. 3.2.4 Rio - Rio's 2025 shipment guidance target for the Pilbara region remains at 323 - 328 Mt. As of Q3, the target completion rate is 71.1%, lower than the past four - year average. After cyclone impacts in Q1, Pilbara's annual shipment volume is expected to be at the lower end of the guidance range. Q4 shipment volume is expected to increase by 2 Mt y/y. As of October 24, Rio's cumulative shipments have decreased by approximately 0.7 Mt y/y, and the remaining Q4 shipment volume's y/y increment is expected to be around 2.7 Mt [84][85][87]. - In Q3, Rio's iron ore production reached 84.104 Mt, essentially unchanged y/y. The cumulative production in the first three quarters totaled 238 Mt, a y/y decrease of 3.867 Mt. Shipment volume in Q3 was 84.346 Mt, a slight y/y decline but a 6% quarter - on - quarter increase [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - As the off - season begins, the expectation of weakening steel demand remains unchanged, and the inventory depletion is expected to slow down, putting pressure on steel prices. With the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, the weekly hot metal output is expected to stop falling and rise, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The coal mine production remains restricted this week, and the coal mine inventory continues to decline at a low level. The coking coal fundamentals are still supported, corresponding to the price stop - falling and rising since yesterday. The strong furnace material prices further support the steel cost. With no new changes in macro and policies, the prices of short - term sector varieties will maintain an oscillatory operation [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Iron, Carbon, and Alloy Elements - **Iron Element**: This week, hot metal output shows signs of stopping decline, but considering the seasonal maintenance of steel enterprises in the traditional off - season, the overall downward trend of hot metal remains unchanged, corresponding to the marginal weakening of iron ore fundamentals. However, there are still disturbances from internal and external macro and policy expectations, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. The short - term finished product prices are under pressure, and scrap steel prices are expected to follow the finished products [3]. - **Carbon Element**: After three rounds of coke price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is relatively large, so the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is currently small. Given the strong cost support for coke and the continued procurement demand from steel mills, the coke price is expected to oscillate. This week, both domestic coking coal supply and upstream inventory have decreased, and the coking coal fundamentals remain relatively healthy. It is expected that coking coal supply will still be difficult to improve in the future. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventory has dropped to a low level in recent years, and the short - term fundamentals remain healthy. The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Alloy**: In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand continues to have a pessimistic expectation, and there is insufficient driving force for the price increase of ferromanganese - silicon. The strong short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. 2. Glass and Soda Ash - Supply disturbance expectations have fermented again, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. However, the inventory of middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the price will return to an oscillatory and weak state. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to oscillate downward. Recently, downstream enterprises have started to replenish inventory as they think the price is appropriate. After the inventory of soda ash plants is depleted, the price has slightly increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4][7]. 3. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, mainly at low prices. Recently, the profit of steel mills has marginally improved, but affected by environmental protection restrictions and seasonal maintenance of steel mills, hot metal output has declined from a high level, and steel production shows a downward trend. As the peak season is coming to an end, the demand side faces the pressure of falling from a high level. Steel inventory continues to be depleted, but the depletion speed has slowed down, and the inventory level remains higher than the same period last year. The short - term macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure for adjustment, but the cost side still has support, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The port transactions have decreased, and the spot market transactions have weakened. From a fundamental perspective, the overseas mine shipping end is relatively stable, and the arrival volume has fluctuated greatly in the past month, but the average arrival volume basically meets expectations. The demand side has a slight increase in the daily consumption of sintered powder ore, and there is an expectation of a month - on - month increase in hot metal, but the profitability rate of steel mills continues to weaken, and the peak season is gradually ending, which may limit the recovery space of hot metal. In terms of inventory, under sintering restrictions, the inventory of sintered powder ore has increased month - on - month, and the production and inventory of sintered ore have slightly decreased. The market sentiment is weak, but the price still has support when the demand does not weaken significantly [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly this week, approaching the level of the same period last year. The demand has also increased, with an increase in the daily consumption of electric furnaces in various regions. The overall daily consumption of scrap steel in 255 steel mills has decreased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term finished product prices are under pressure. Scrap steel prices are expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the spot price in Rizhao Port remains unchanged. After three rounds of price increases, the supply of coke is difficult to increase due to environmental protection and maintenance. The demand side is affected by environmental protection in Tangshan, and hot metal has declined significantly in the short - term. If the environmental protection inspection intensity weakens in the future, hot metal may still have a slight upward trend. The overall supply - demand of coke is relatively healthy, and the fundamentals have no major contradictions. After three rounds of price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is large, so the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is small. Given the strong cost support and the continued procurement demand from steel mills, the coke price is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures market oscillates, and the spot price has increased. The supply of domestic coking coal and upstream inventory have both decreased this week. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, but high - quality resources at the port are still in short supply. The downstream coking enterprises still have the enthusiasm to replenish inventory, and the coal mine inventory has dropped to a low level in recent years. The short - term fundamentals remain healthy, and the coking coal price is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Glass**: The supply disturbance expectation has fermented again, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. However, the inventory of middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the price will return to an oscillatory and weak state. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream has started to replenish inventory at low prices, and the spot price has slightly increased. The supply side has a daily output of 104,000 tons, and some manufacturers are under maintenance, with the output remaining unchanged month - on - month. The demand side has a stable and good demand for heavy soda ash, and the downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered to some extent. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [15][17]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures market price has slightly increased, and the cost support and supply - demand pressure are in a stalemate. The spot market is waiting for the performance of the new round of steel tenders, and the manufacturers' shipment situation is average, with the downstream's price - cutting sentiment remaining. The short - term cost is firm, supporting the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand continues to have a pessimistic expectation, and there is insufficient driving force for the price increase [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures market price is strongly oscillating, and the settlement electricity price increase strengthens the cost support, but the loose supply - demand suppresses the increase in the futures market. The spot market remains stable, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost pressure. The short - term cost trend is strong, supporting the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and there is insufficient driving force for the price to rise [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market showed resilience with a low - open and high - close trend, while the bond market still has positive factors. November is a period of oscillatory digestion for the stock market, and there may be opportunities for re - layout after December. The bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views (1) Stock Index Futures - The market opened low and closed high, showing resilience. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between current and next - month contracts also had changes. Total positions increased. Micro - cap + dividend styles were dominant. November is an oscillatory digestion period, and it is advisable to hold IM + dividend in the short term [7]. (2) Stock Index Options - During the rebound, there were style differences. The trading volume of the options market increased by 2.78% compared with the previous day, and the 50ETF skewness index reached around 120. It is recommended to view it as an oscillatory market and choose to sell call options for hedging defense [2][7]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - Long - term bond yields showed a V - shape. Most treasury bond futures contracts declined, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.08%, the 10 - year and 2 - year main contracts down 0.01%, and the 5 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank's operations had a short - term negative impact on the bond market, but the fundamental environment is still favorable, and the bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Different trading strategies are recommended [3][8][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - The October SPGI manufacturing PMI in China was 50.6, lower than the forecast of 50.9. The October ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 48.7, lower than the forecast of 49.5. The October ADP employment change in the US was 4.2 million, higher than the forecast of 2.5 million. Upcoming data include China's October trade balance in US dollars and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Starting from November 10, 2025, at 13:01, China will stop implementing the additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods and continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year, retaining the 10% rate. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [10][11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content.

Group 1: Report Core View - The EIA weekly data shows that refinery operations remain low, and gasoline inventories are significantly depleted. The single - week data is optimistically inclined towards the crack spread [2][4] - In the week ending October 31, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, net crude oil imports increased by 86,700 barrels per day, crude oil processing volume increased by 37,000 barrels per day (remaining at a low level for the same period), and the estimated single - week crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day. With low refinery operations, gasoline and diesel inventories continued to decline, with gasoline inventories reaching a five - year low for the same period, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased slightly [4] Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: - 5.202 million barrels (previous value: - 6.858 million barrels) [6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: + 300,000 barrels (previous value: + 1.334 million barrels) [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: + 498,000 barrels (previous value: - 533,000 barrels) [6] - US gasoline inventory change: - 4.729 million barrels (previous value: - 5.941 million barrels) [6] - US diesel inventory change: - 643,000 barrels (previous value: - 3.362 million barrels) [6] - US jet fuel inventory change: + 277,000 barrels (previous value: - 1.509 million barrels) [6] - US fuel oil inventory change: + 84,000 barrels (previous value: - 127,000 barrels) [6] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): + 633,000 barrels (previous value: - 15.903 million barrels) [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production: 13.651 million barrels per day (previous value: 13.644 million barrels per day) [6] - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.356 million barrels per day (previous value: 21.281 million barrels per day) [6] - US gasoline apparent demand: 8.874 million barrels per day (previous value: 8.924 million barrels per day) [6] - US diesel apparent demand: 3.71 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.58 million barrels per day) [6] Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 5.924 million barrels per day (previous value: 5.051 million barrels per day) [6] - US crude oil exports: 4.367 million barrels per day (previous value: 4.361 million barrels per day) [6] Refinery - related Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.256 million barrels per day (previous value: 15.219 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery utilization rate: 89% (previous value: 86.6%) [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Wednesday saw a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In October, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, exceeding the expected increase of 28,000 people. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 people to a decrease of 29,000 people. ADP reported that last month, U.S. employment rebounded from two months of weakness, but the scope of the rebound was not broad. Education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth, while employers in professional business services, information, leisure, and the hotel industry laid off employees for the third consecutive month. In October, the year - on - year salary increase remained the same as the previous month, with 4.5% for those who did not change jobs and 6.7% for job - hoppers [2]. - The U.S. Treasury set the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion, in line with market expectations. It plans to issue $58 billion of 3 - year Treasury bonds on November 10, $42 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds on November 12, and $25 billion of 30 - year Treasury bonds on November 13, and keep the new issuance auction scale of 10 - year inflation - protected bonds (TIPS) in January at $21 billion. The U.S. Treasury expects the auction market to remain stable for at least the next few quarters and plans to increase the Treasury issuance scale by mid - 2026 [2]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, becoming the longest - lasting government "shutdown" in U.S. history. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office stated that if the "shutdown" lasts for six weeks, the economic loss will rise to $11 billion, and it is expected that the annual growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the fourth quarter will decline by 1 - 2 percentage points. The record - breaking "shutdown" has severely impacted people's livelihoods in areas such as U.S. aviation safety and food relief [3]. Price Logic - Wednesday witnessed a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. Outlook - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a range. Attention should be paid to when the high inventory of liquid chemicals starts to decline. The supply pressure of crude oil persists, and geopolitical risks still exist. The overall chemical industry continues its weak and volatile pattern, with methanol rebounding during the day. The supply of PTA is limited in the short - term, and the processing fee of short - fiber is expected to be compressed. Energy and chemical products generally show a pattern of range - bound movement [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks remain. The EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased last week, the refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, and gasoline and diesel continued to destock. The overseas refined oil inventory pressure has eased, and the crack spread is strong, which still provides phased support for the demand side of crude oil. However, the reality of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price may test the 3200 pressure level again. The OPEC + group will continue to increase production in December, and after the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the crude oil price has declined. The supply tension problem has been resolved, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt has begun to decline [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region is expected to decline in November due to the decrease in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil and fluctuates weakly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow the crude oil to fluctuate, and its current valuation is relatively low [4][11]. - **PX**: The market lacks clear news guidance, and the price fluctuates in a range under the game between cost and sentiment. The cost - side guidance is limited, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is acceptable under the support of the downstream polyester load [12]. - **PTA**: New Fengming starts new and stops old, and the short - term new supply is limited. The upstream cost is in a stalemate, and the supply has not significantly decreased. There is a certain expectation of improvement in the short - term supply - demand pattern, and the price is not likely to fall deeply in the short - term [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting their previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The upstream cost fluctuates, and the short - fiber itself has no independent market, with limited supply - demand variables and general driving forces [18][19]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is in a stalemate, and the supply - demand drive is limited. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate within a range, and the polyester bottle chip price follows suit. The medium - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the processing fee is in a stalemate [20]. - **Methanol**: There is slight support at the 2100 integer level, and it fluctuates. The domestic methanol factory operating rate is at a high level, and the supply is abundant. The port inventory is high, but considering the possible disturbances from Iran in winter, it still has low - buying value [23]. - **Urea**: High inventory suppression and cost support coexist, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The supply is at a high level and fluctuates, the demand for winter wheat is coming to an end, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space of the futures price, while the coal cost provides support [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus of the market again, and the pessimistic sentiment is difficult to reverse. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short - term, and the market is worried about a new round of capacity release. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase [16]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about inventory over - filling, and it fluctuates weakly. The cost - side pure benzene supply has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation. The supply - demand difference in November is negative, and the port inventory pressure is still large [14]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and it fluctuates weakly. The macro - level disturbances have subsided in November, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The cost is stable, the production will increase after the end of the upstream maintenance, and the export is weak [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it fluctuates. The macro - level disturbances have subsided in November, and the fundamentals are improving, but the driving force may be limited. Attention should be paid to the cost support [29]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance has decreased, and it is in a weak pattern. The oil price fluctuates, the plastic's own fundamental support is limited, the upper - and middle - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the short - term maintenance has decreased, increasing the production pressure [25]. - **PP**: The fundamental support is limited, and it weakens. The oil price fluctuates, the PP's own fundamental support is limited, the current maintenance has decreased, the production has increased year - on - year, and the middle - stream inventory is at a high level in the same period of the past five years [26]. - **Propylene (PL)**: The downstream transaction improvement is limited, and it fluctuates. The CP prices of propane and butane announced by Saudi Aramco in November have decreased. The downstream demand is differentiated, suppressing the enterprise's shipment rhythm [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. show different changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.4 with a change of 0.03, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 8 with a change of 8 [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are presented. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 3, and the warehouse receipt is 7690 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 68 with a change of - 147 [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is volatile but stable, and base metals bottomed out and rebounded. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but macro support has weakened. Long - term, with potential domestic incremental stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. - Copper: Due to tight US monetary liquidity, copper prices adjusted in the short term, but are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8]. - Alumina: The current fundamentals are in surplus, and the price is under pressure and fluctuating [10]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to demand changes, and the price is volatile at a high level, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term price center [13]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, and volatile in the medium term [15]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, with a potential decline in the long term [18]. - Lead: Social inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile, and is expected to be volatile and bullish [19]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price is volatile [21]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel prices continue to fall, and the price is volatile [23]. - Tin: Market sentiment has declined, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply disruptions [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper** - **Viewpoint**: US monetary liquidity is tight, causing short - term copper price adjustments. Mid - term outlook is volatile and bullish. - **Analysis**: Fed cut interest rates in October, but Powell's speech was slightly hawkish. US financial system funding conditions worsened. In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper output decreased month - on - month. Spot premiums recovered, and inventories increased. Sino - US leaders' meeting is conducive to cooperation [8][9]. - **Logic**: Macro factors and tight monetary liquidity led to price adjustments. Supply is constrained by mine disruptions and increased scrap copper recycling costs. Demand may pick up as spot turns to premium [10]. - **Alumina** - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are in surplus, and the price is under pressure and fluctuating. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and warehouse receipts increased [10][11]. - **Logic**: High - cost capacity fluctuates, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend. Ore prices loosen slightly, and the price is under pressure. However, low - valuation may attract more funds [11][12]. - **Aluminum** - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the price is volatile at a high level, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term price center. - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices and premiums decreased. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories changed slightly. A project will be put into production, and some areas have environmental protection restrictions. Some aluminum has been transported to the US [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is generally positive. Supply is affected by domestic environmental protection and overseas disruptions. Demand is stable after the peak season, and inventory changes should be monitored [14]. - **Aluminum alloy** - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, and volatile in the medium term. - **Analysis**: Alloy prices decreased. The US may restrict scrap aluminum exports, and the estimated scale of the passenger car market decreased [15]. - **Logic**: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is affected by raw material shortages and other factors. Demand has a marginal improvement, especially in the automotive market [15]. - **Zinc** - **Viewpoint**: LME zinc inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, with a potential decline in the long term. - **Analysis**: Spot zinc premiums were stable. Inventories increased slightly. A mine's production was affected by an earthquake [18]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is improving. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average [18]. - **Lead** - **Viewpoint**: Social inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile, and is expected to be volatile and bullish. - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices were stable, and lead prices and inventories increased. Some enterprises are in maintenance or resuming production [19]. - **Logic**: Spot premiums and the price difference between primary and recycled lead decreased. Supply is affected by enterprise maintenance and resumption. Demand is in the peak season, and battery factories'开工率 is high [19]. - **Nickel** - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price is volatile. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic nickel inventories increased. Some projects are in progress, and a company's new materials have achieved certain results [21]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, with loose ore supply and increased inventories [22]. - **Stainless steel** - **Viewpoint**: Ferronickel prices continue to fall, and the price is volatile. - **Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts were stable. Spot premiums were positive. Ferronickel prices decreased, and the Indonesian government allocated funds for mining projects [23]. - **Logic**: Cost support has weakened. Stainless steel production increased, but downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. Inventories may accumulate seasonally [24]. - **Tin** - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has declined, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply disruptions. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic tin inventories changed, and spot prices decreased. - **Logic**: Supply is constrained by problems in Myanmar and Indonesia. However, refined tin production has increased, and inventory accumulation restricts price increases [25]. 3.2行情监测 - No specific content for monitoring is provided in the text. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On November 5, 2025, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index), and the PPI commodity index showed different changes. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily decline of 0.10%, a 5 - day decline of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 2.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.75% [151][152].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Supply - side policy expectations are fluctuating, and new energy metals continue to oscillate. In the short - to - medium term, supply expectations are again dominating the market, with lithium carbonate leading the decline among new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise; lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, which will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. For polysilicon, market sentiment is cooling, and polysilicon prices are oscillating at a high level. For lithium carbonate, sentiment is suppressing the price decline, and the situation of strong supply and demand continues [3][6][7][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **View**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. Mid - term outlook is oscillating. - **Data Analysis**: As of November 6, 2025, the oxygen - passed 553 in East China is 9450 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 9700 yuan/ton. The latest domestic inventory is 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. As of October 2025, the monthly domestic production is 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. In September, the export volume is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In September, the single - month new photovoltaic installed capacity is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76% [6]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest is coming, and the number of open furnaces in the southwest continues to decline. In the northwest, the supply is stable, and large factories may resume production. On the demand side, in November, the production of polysilicon in the southwest will decrease during the dry season, and the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline slightly. The inventory of industrial silicon has been decreasing recently, which supports the market [6]. Polysilicon - **View**: Market sentiment is cooling, and polysilicon prices are oscillating at a high level. Mid - term outlook is oscillating. - **Data Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In September, the export volume is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%; the import volume is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [7]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the positive impact of Sino - US trade negotiations has been realized, and market risk appetite has cooled. On the supply side, production has recovered in August - September and is expected to remain high in October and contract in November. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installed capacity growth rate was high in the first half of the year, but demand has weakened since June. Overall, the current supply - demand situation is under pressure, but it is expected to improve during the dry season, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [8][9]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Sentiment is suppressing the price decline, and the situation of strong supply and demand continues. Mid - term outlook is oscillating. - **Data Analysis**: On November 5, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.74% to 79,140 yuan/ton; the total contract positions increased by 1,333 to 828,733. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 80,500 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 78,300 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) decreased by 11 US dollars/ton to 920 US dollars/ton. The warehouse receipts increased by 340 to 26,830 [10]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand, and de - stocking is expected to continue in November. Supply is expected to be strong in November - December, and there is an additional import expectation in November. Demand is currently strong, but attention should be paid to the production schedule in December and the possible weakening of demand in the first quarter of next year. Social inventory is de - stocking, and recently, warehouse receipts have been decreasing. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [10]. 2. Market Monitoring - No specific content for market monitoring analysis is provided in the given text, only the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are mentioned [12][18][30] 3. Commodity Index - On November 5, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures is 2233.64, up 0.18%; the commodity 20 index is 2526.40, up 0.18%; the industrial product index is 2213.59, unchanged; the PPI commodity index is 1335.37, down 0.17%. The new energy commodity index is 410.23, up 0.56% today, down 3.47% in the past 5 days, up 3.64% in the past month, and down 0.53% since the beginning of the year [52][53]