投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-16 政策扰动不断，盘⾯低位反弹 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但国 资委强调中央企业⾃觉抵制"内卷式"竞争，盘⾯低开⾼⾛。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅仍有⽀ 撑，下游补库⽀撑煤焦估值有望修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅ 空间。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑虽较弱，但焦钢企业将逐渐开启原料 冬储补库，基本面矛盾不大，当前盘面估值过低，继续大幅下行驱动 不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储逐步开启，焦煤 现货成交有望改善，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修复，届时盘面估值或 将向上修复。 3. 合金方面：成本暂居高位对价格形成支撑，但市场供需宽松状态 难改、成本向下传导不畅、盘面上涨驱动不足，预计锰硅期价仍将跟 随板块的表现、以低位震荡运行为主。成本仍处高位支撑硅铁价格底 部，但市场供需双弱、去库难度仍存，需谨慎看待盘面的上方空间， 预计硅铁期价跟随板块低位震荡运行。 4. 玻璃纯碱：供应仍有扰动 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/16 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 风险提示：宏观经济波动、地缘政治变化、政策趋向扭转。 Related Reports 近期报告 摘要 Abstract Macro News: PBOC, MOF, SASAC and other ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas: The Fed's dovish stance, combined with a downward trend in the US economy and inflation, has led to increased enthusiasm for soft - landing trades. Assets such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and US equities have support. The nomination of the new Fed chair may cause a phase of smooth trading in liquidity - easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic: The tone of the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference is moderately positive. In 2026, macro - policies are expected to maintain a similar intensity to 2025, balancing long - term structural adjustment and short - term goals. External trade risks may influence policy rhythm [5]. - Asset Outlook: The current macro - environment favors precious metals and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes. Domestic equities are conservative during the year - end and policy - free period [5]. Summary by Directory Financial - Stock Index Futures: A large premium implies positive views, and the short - term trend is upward, but attention should be paid to liquidity deterioration [6]. - Stock Index Options: Adopt an offensive strategy when the price is low, and the short - term trend is upward, with the risk of continuous market liquidity shrinkage [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The adjustment pattern may continue in the short term, and the short - term trend is downward, affected by factors such as less - than - expected monetary easing [6]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Supported by economic downturn risks and interest - rate cut expectations, maintain a long - position strategy, and the short - term trend is upward, with attention to policy - expectation changes [6]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: With the price adjustment and news of short - term sailings suspension, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by geopolitical factors and spot freight rates [6]. Black Building Materials - Steel: Demand is picking up, but supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, with attention to special - bond issuance and steel exports [6]. - Iron Ore: Iron - water production is accelerating, and inventory - accumulation pressure is rising again. The short - term trend is volatile, affected by overseas mine production and domestic iron - water production [6]. - Coke: There is still an expectation of price increase, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by steel - mill production and coking costs [6]. - Coking Coal: Supported by the continuous increase in iron - water production, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by steel - mill production and coal - mine safety inspections [6]. - Ferrosilicon: With active resumption of production in Ningxia and rising cost support, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by raw - material costs and steel procurement [6]. - Manganese Silicon: Factory resumption is slow, and supply - demand has improved. The short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by cost prices and external quotes [6]. - Glass: With the decline in macro - sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by spot sales [6]. - Soda Ash: Supply - demand pressure is high, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is volatile, affected by soda - ash inventory [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Driven by policies, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by supply disruptions and domestic demand recovery [6]. - Alumina: With more ore - supply disruptions, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by ore - production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production [6]. - Aluminum: Driven by domestic macro - expectations, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by macro - risks and supply disruptions [6]. - Zinc: With the decline in macro - optimism, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by macro - risks and zinc - ore supply [6]. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by exports and waste - battery prices [6]. - Nickel: Driven by domestic macro - factors, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes [6]. - Stainless Steel: Boosted by macro - sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [6]. - Tin: With tight supply - demand and positive sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by demand recovery and supply increase [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Under the pressure of warehouse - receipt cancellation, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [6]. - Lithium Carbonate: With supply contraction at the end of the peak season, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by demand and supply disruptions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressure, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [8]. - LPG: There is a short - term differentiation between the domestic and overseas markets, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - Asphalt: The price is under pressure at 3000, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High Asian floating - storage offsets the decline in Russian fuel - oil exports, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by geopolitics and crude - oil prices [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Follows the weak trend of crude oil, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by crude - oil prices [8]. - Methanol: With sufficient supply inland and along the coast, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro - energy factors and overseas production suspension [8]. - Urea: The progress of off - season storage has slowed down, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by coal prices and inventory de - stocking [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: Market pessimism leads to inventory accumulation, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by coal and oil prices and port inventory [8]. - PX: Supported by tight PTA spot supply, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - PTA: Spot circulation is tight, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations and downstream polyester load [8]. - Short - Fiber: Affected by ethylene - glycol costs, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by downstream yarn - mill purchasing and seasonality [8]. - Bottle Chip: Affected by the differentiation of upstream polyester raw - material costs, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - cut targets and new - device commissioning [8]. - Propylene: With a strong spot market and expected PDH production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic macro - factors [8]. - PP: Boosted by expected PDH production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [8]. - Plastic: With limited raw - material and maintenance support, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [8]. - Styrene: Affected by repeated maintenance news, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - PVC: With limited production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - Caustic Soda: Without upstream production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by market sentiment and demand [8]. Agriculture - Natural Rubber: The price fluctuates widely without strong drivers, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - area weather and raw - material prices [8]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market sentiment is positive, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations [8]. - Cotton: The short - term trend is volatile, affected by production and demand [8]. - Sugar: There is pressure at the upper level and short - term support at the lower level, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by imports and Northern - Hemisphere production [8]. - Pulp: Driven by positive news, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US - dollar quotes [8]. - Offset Paper: There are no obvious contradictions, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - sales and paper - mill operations [8]. - Log: With a low valuation, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [8].

最新动态及原因 2025年12月15日，铂、把价格均出现大涨，截至14:30，拍主力合约上涨7.0%至482.4元/克，把主力合约上涨5.82%至411.8元/克。其主要原因在于，其一、市场进一步交易美联储融的立 受损所带来的未来降息空间的打开；真二，现货市场供需再度收紧。进入12月后，临近新任美联储主席提名，市场逐渐加强对美联储独立出风险的交易。根据央视财经、当地时间12日，持朗普 表示凯文·沃什已成为下一任美联储主席的头号候选人，并称在降息问题上与自己观点一致，他希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%亮至更低"，以帮助财政部降低美国国贡的高额融资成本。 凯文 法什获得提名的概率大幅提升，截至12月15日，根据Polymarket，凯文·哈塞特被提名的概率降为52%，凯文·沃什被提名的概率上升至40%，我们认为，无论是哪位获得提名，在上任初期他都 将探持帰向部派的政策倾向，加之美国非农数据即将公布，市场认为数据或表现弱势，从而抬升降息预期，贵金属价格获得向上驱动。此外，近期铂金现货市场再度趋于紧张，藏至12月12日， 铂金1个月租赁利率上升至14.12%。双重因素共振下,今日铂把价格出现大涨。 三期货有限公司 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market has a weak fundamental situation with high supply, rising inventory, and weak cost support. Although the price has rebounded recently, the upward pressure on the market remains significant. Traders are advised to adjust their strategies according to market changes [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Policy Trends - On December 12, the head of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council studied the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference emphasized that central enterprises should focus on promoting new - quality productivity, strengthen technological innovation, promote industrial upgrading, and avoid "involution - style" competition [2] 3.2 Fundamental Situation - Recently, the market fundamentals have been weak, with futures and spot prices falling. After the call against involution, most low - priced varieties rebounded rapidly on Friday night, with the main alumina contract rebounding by over 4% by the morning [3] - The fundamental contradictions lie in high supply, rising inventory, and weak cost support. Supply has limited reduction due to short - term factors; inventory is rising as demand growth is limited; cost has not formed good support as raw material prices are weak [3] 3.3 Summary and Strategy - Fundamentally, the market is in a loss situation, with high upstream operating capacity and a strong inventory accumulation trend. The spot price is under pressure, but the near - month warehouse receipts are expected to decline [4] - During the previous decline period, strategies such as short - selling at high prices, monthly reverse arbitrage, and selling put options performed well. Currently, traders are advised to shorten the trading period, adjust positions, and convert some short positions to selling call options. If there are significant marginal changes, trading opportunities such as call options and monthly positive arbitrage should be considered [4]

中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 陆地及浮仓库存快速攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 Futures Company Limited 研究员: 李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月14日当周，全球原油陆上及浮仓库存均快速攀升，创今年以来最高，同时为近5年同期最高。陆地库存分区域看，中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第3周回升,欧洲库存小幅反弹,印度、俄罗斯、中东库存下降。 风险提示: Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 I ZUUUU 3400000 90000 60000 3300000 第5周 第1周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 资料来源： Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 3: 全球陆地+浮仓原油库存 2022 - - 2023 2021 2025 2024 千桶 4100000 4000000 3900000 3 ...

2025年12月15日，铂、把价格均出现大涨，截至14:30，拍主力合约上涨7.0%至482.4元/克，把主力合约上涨5.82%至411.8元/克。其主要原因在于，其一、市场进一步交易美联储融的立 受损所带来的未来降息空间的打开；真二，现货市场供需再度收紧。进入12月后，临近新任美联储主席提名，市场逐渐加强对美联储独立出风险的交易。根据央视财经、当地时间12日，持朗普 表示凯文·沃什已成为下一任美联储主席的头号候选人，并称在降息问题上与自己观点一致，他希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%亮至更低"，以帮助财政部降低美国国贡的高额融资成本。 凯文 法什获得提名的概率大幅提升，截至12月15日，根据Polymarket，凯文·哈塞特被提名的概率降为52%，凯文·沃什被提名的概率上升至40%，我们认为，无论是哪位获得提名，在上任初期他都 将探持帰向部派的政策倾向，加之美国非农数据即将公布，市场认为数据或表现弱势，从而抬升降息预期，贵金属价格获得向上驱动。此外，近期铂金现货市场再度趋于紧张，藏至12月12日， 铂金1个月租赁利率上升至14.12%。双重因素共振下,今日铂把价格出现大涨。 基本面情况 三期货有限公司 Co ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 50th week of 2025, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, and provides data on issuance, net financing, and progress [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance was 50.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 11 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 103.3% [1]. - Next week, the planned issuance is 29.3 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 89.1 billion yuan [1]. New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 21 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.6 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.5% [1]. - Next week, the planned issuance is 6 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 32.4 billion yuan [1]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 62.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.1% [1]. - Next week, the planned net financing is 28.1 billion yuan [3]. National Bond Net Financing - As of December 14, the national bond net financing progress was 96.2% [6]. - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 238.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 271.9 billion yuan [14]. - Next week, the planned net financing is - 147.3 billion yuan [14]. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 300.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 273.6 billion yuan [9]. - Next week, the planned net financing is - 119.2 billion yuan [9]. - As of December 14, the progress of national bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 98.8% [9].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 50th week of 2025, presenting the issuance, progress, and planned issuance of various types of bonds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 New Special Bonds - This week, new special bond issuance was 50.1 billion yuan, a 11 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 103.3% [1] - Next week, the planned issuance is 29.3 billion yuan [1] - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 89.1 billion yuan [1] 3.2 New General Bonds - This week, new general bond issuance was 21 billion yuan, a 9.6 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.5% [1] - Next week, the planned issuance is 6 billion yuan [1] - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 32.4 billion yuan [1] 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 62.3 billion yuan, a 1.8 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 102.1% [1] - Next week, the planned net financing is 28.1 billion yuan [3] 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 238.1 billion yuan, a 271.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [14] - As of December 14, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.2% [6] - Next week, the planned net financing is - 147.3 billion yuan [14] 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 300.3 billion yuan, a 273.6 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [9] - As of December 14, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local government bond issuance was 98.8% [9] - Next week, the planned net financing is - 119.2 billion yuan [9]

下游存降负预期,内盘高估值松动 风险因素:极端天气;地缘局势;炼厂意外停车。 中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 量新动态 2025年12月12日,LPG主力合约下跌超3%。 下跌原因 近期LPG基差较往年同期持续偏低，内外盘价差偏高，PDH盘面利润不断下挫，12月11日新增仓单865手，叠加市场对PDH降负预期增强，盘面大幅下挫, 基本面情况 海外方面，伴生气高供应格局延续，美国C3年存持续高位，但11月以来印度为代表的海外旺季需求略超预期，海外价格稳中偏强运行。国内供应偏紧前期主要体现在主营炼厂检修带来的LPG9 故量同比明显偏低，且PDH开工持续坐挺，基本面呈现强现实弱预期格局，近期随着炼厂开工率企稳回升，进口量延续同期高位运行，强现实局面边际松动，PDH降负预期的增强亦对基本面转 弱形成助力。 后市展望 盘面下挫后肉盘粉价相较外盘以及相较现货的高估值均有所改善，国内特厂外放量边际增加、海外高供应延续背景下LPG供应压力的超级，海外季节性需求支撑下下行节奏预计仍有波折。原 油偏弱预期下后续仍以关注逢高空配及3-4价差反套为主，节奏上主要关注PDH降量的兑现情况。 风险提示 图表 1:中国液化气商品量 万吨 2 ...