2026年政策延续偏松,但重视"跨周期"及"提质增效" 12月8日，新华社发布政治局会议通稿。通稿提及"宏观政策更加积极有为"，"继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策",表明2026年整体基调延续积极,不过细节表述也有变化: 一是,经济工作表述新增"提质增效"。 图说金融(20251209) : 二是,提及"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度",政策可能兼顾短期及中长期。 由此,我们对2026年财政及货币政策看法是: 固定收益组 程小庆 邮箱: chengxiaoging@citicsf.com 从业资格号: F3083989 投资咨询号:Z0018635 从业资格号:F03105230 投资咨询号:Z0021341 固定收益组 张 陆 邮箱: zhanglu2@citicsf.com 固定收益组 甘 青 邮箱: ganqing@citicsf.com 从业资格号:F03124127 投资咨询号:Z0023461 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股市仍需等待，债市⻓端情绪低迷 股指期货：双重因素提振市场，但持续进攻仍需等待 股指期权：期权备兑增厚 国债期货：国债⻓端情绪持续低迷 股指期货方面，双重因素提振市场，但持续进攻仍需等待。周一沪指 高开回升，重回3900点上方，TMT、券商领涨。日内乐观情绪受到两重因 素提振：一是上周五金监总局下调保险公司投资沪深300、科创板等标的 的风险因子，释放大盘股中期潜在增量资金；二是午后发布12月政治局会 议公告，定调积极有为，紧抓质效落实，结构性方向关注内需和科技创 新，政策偏暖支持、稳定发力，强化股市中期稳健上行趋势。同时也需注 意，"春躁"进攻时点仍需等待，年末资金风险尚未完全释放，一是大规 模限售解禁集中，二是股市整体缩量，三是下旬日本央行即将加息，市场 担忧日元套息交易平仓影响权益产品流动性。从历年春躁经验来看，元旦 之后机会的持续性更强，操作上，我们看长做多，短期关注涨价链及高股 息。 股指期权方面，期权备兑增厚。昨日权益市场放量上涨，沪指单日收 涨0.54%，科创50指数涨幅1.86%。期权方面，由于上周五期权市场流动性 已于周内放量提升，期权交投热情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, without releasing any signals beyond expectations. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has improved, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later stage. After entering the off - season, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the steel futures market will operate weakly. There is still an expectation of a seasonal decline in hot metal production, and an expected increase in Mongolian coal imports. The futures markets of iron ore, coking coal, and coke are showing weak performance. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are poor, and the central political bureau meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the futures market will undergo a short - term weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the upcoming central economic work conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand remains slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly month - on - month. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure remaining. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the decline in spot prices, the cost - effectiveness has rebounded. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter storage and restocking of raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient impetus for a further significant decline. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment towards coking coal. The upcoming winter storage and restocking by downstream enterprises in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level futures valuation is expected to gradually recover at that time [2]. Alloys - The firm cost performance provides support for prices, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient impetus for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the futures price of ferromanganese silicon will mainly oscillate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand situation remains in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased, and the overall supply - demand of soda ash remains in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][7]. Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, hot metal production has continued to decline, and steel production has decreased from a high level, with a significant decline in rebar production. The funds available for domestic sample construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has declined significantly. The overall steel inventory has continued to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher year - on - year. As demand weakens, it will take time to ease the fundamental contradictions. It is expected that the futures market will operate weakly [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot market prices have weakened. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month. It is expected that hot metal production may continue to decline seasonally, the support from rigid demand will gradually weaken, and the restocking demand has not been significantly released. There is still overall inventory accumulation pressure. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly this week but is still lower than the same period last year. The demand from electric arc furnaces has increased to some extent, while the demand from blast furnaces has decreased slightly. The inventories of steel enterprises have increased slightly. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [12]. - **Coke**: The futures market is pessimistic, and the spot market is weak. The supply is affected by the decline in raw material coal prices and the start of heavy - pollution weather warnings in some areas. The demand has decreased with the decline in hot metal production. The inventory of coke enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has declined significantly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the import is being tested for increased capacity. The demand has decreased as the downstream restocking has slowed down, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the low - level futures valuation will gradually recover in mid - to late December [15]. - **Glass**: The macro - environment is warm, but the supply is expected to increase slightly, the demand is weak year - on - year, the middle - stream inventory is large, and the overall restocking ability is limited. The supply - demand situation remains in surplus. If there is no further cold - repair, prices may fall [16]. - **Soda Ash**: The macro - environment is warm, the supply is expected to increase, the demand from heavy - alkali is expected to weaken, and the demand from light - alkali has not changed much. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [18]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: Affected by the decline in coking coal prices, the futures price has decreased. The cost is firm, the demand has decreased with the decline in steel production, and the supply is difficult to contract significantly. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price has decreased slightly. The cost is expected to remain high, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium market has weakened, the supply has decreased slightly, and the destocking is difficult. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Index Information - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16%. The steel industry chain index was 1946.09, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a decline of 2.53% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.45% in the past month, and a decline of 7.69% since the beginning of the year [103][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On December 8, equity index futures rose while long - dated CGB futures declined; commodity futures had mixed performance, with coking coal and coke leading the declines [2][9][11] - Gold and silver are expected to maintain a range - bound upward trend in December. Copper prices will also maintain a range - bound and upward trend in the medium to long term [15][17][21] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 8, in China's financial futures, IC rose 1.0%, IM rose 0.9%, and TL fell 0.3%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Live Hog (up 2.3% with 4.0% month - on - month increase in open interest), LSFO (up 2.2% with 0.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Silver (up 2.1% with 3.7% month - on - month drop in open interest). The top three decliners were Coking Coal (down 6.1% with 5.1% month - on - month rise in open interest), Coke (down 5.8% with 5.8% month - on - month increase in open interest), and Offset Paper (down 2.8% with 5.2% month - on - month growth in open interest) [9][10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold, Silver - On December 8, Gold rose 0.1% to 985.7 yuan/g, and Silver rose 2.1% to 13706 yuan/kg. In December, gold is expected to continue a range - bound upward trend. The December Fed meeting won't boost dovish expectations, but post - meeting pullback is likely to be limited. Liquidity easing remains key, and silver - led gains support gold prices. Silver is resilient short - term, with post - meeting pullback risks, but December is favorable for upward range - trading. Long - term, dollar credit contraction drives gains [15][16][17] 1.2.2 Copper - On December 8, Copper rose 1.5% to 92970 yuan/ton. Rising market expectations for a December Fed rate cut and a pullback in the U.S. dollar index underpinned copper prices. Ore supply disruptions and production cuts will likely push down ore treatment charges, and refined copper supply will contract. LME canceled warrants surged, and there are potential short - squeeze risks. Demand is lackluster, but strong supply - demand tightness expectations persist, so copper prices will maintain a range - bound and upward trend in the medium to long term [20][21][22] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On December 8, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study 2026 economic work and review the Regulations on the CPC's Leadership over the Comprehensive Law - Based Governance of the Country. Next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability, continue proactive fiscal and moderately accommodative monetary policies, and enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [25] 2.2 Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national futures market's cumulative trading volume was 8,116.71 million contracts, a 14.74% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative trading turnover reached 675.45 trillion yuan, up 20.19% from the same period last year [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, Nigeria's adjustment of lithium ore production policy has led to supply concerns, supporting the price of lithium carbonate. Polysilicon prices have fallen due to the increase in registered brands. Overall, lithium carbonate has led the rise in new energy metals again. In the long term, the supply side of silicon, especially polysilicon, has a strong contraction expectation, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still on the rise, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply - demand is narrowing. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [3]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the influence of northern weather, and the silicon price will continue to fluctuate. For polysilicon, the addition of new delivery brands on the exchange has led to a short - term decline in the price. For lithium carbonate, the weakening growth rate of new energy vehicle retail sales may suppress the short - term price [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **View**: Pay attention to the influence of northern weather, and the silicon price will continue to fluctuate [8]. - **Info**: As of November 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The cumulative production from January to November was 3.871 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In October, the export of industrial silicon was 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 was 607,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The spot price has dropped slightly, and the inventory has increased. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. On December 6, Xinjiang launched a heavy pollution weather orange warning [8]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in coal prices has weakened the cost support, causing the silicon price to fall. The supply in the southwest is decreasing due to the dry season, and the northwest supply has slight fluctuations. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is decreasing, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The inventory is under pressure, but the relatively low level of warehouse receipts provides some support [8]. Polysilicon - **View**: The addition of new delivery brands on the exchange has led to a short - term decline in the price of polysilicon, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - **Info**: The transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts has increased. In October, the export volume of polysilicon decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted false rumors, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new registered brands for polysilicon futures [9][10]. - **Logic**: The addition of new registered brands may increase the number of registered warehouse receipts, leading to a short - term decline in the near - month contract price. The production capacity in the southwest is decreasing in the dry season. The demand has weakened since November, and the downstream silicon wafer price has also fallen. However, the supply is also shrinking in the dry season, and there is still an expectation of anti - involution policy. So, the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: The weakening growth rate of new energy vehicle retail sales may suppress the short - term price, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13]. - **Info**: On December 8, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.91% to 94,840 yuan/ton, and the total position increased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. In November, the production, wholesale, and retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles all increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand is strong, and the inventory is still being depleted in December. The production in November continued to rise, and it is expected to remain strong in December. The apparent demand is good, and the production schedule in the off - season in December only slightly decreased. The retail sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in November. The social inventory is being depleted, and the warehouse receipts are recovering. If the Jiaxiawo mine resumes production, the supply - demand may turn loose in late December. So, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. 2.行情监测 - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. - **Polysilicon**: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, a decrease of 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, a decrease of 0.37%; the industrial product index was 2216.09, a decrease of 0.16%. The new energy commodity index on December 8, 2025, was 440.89, with a daily increase of 0.41%, a 5 - day decrease of 2.54%, a 1 - month increase of 1.83%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.91% [55][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex trend with different products having different outlooks. For example, soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to be weak, while corn is likely to be volatile, and the situation of other products such as rubber, cotton, and sugar also varies [1][6]. - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including international supply - demand, weather, policies, and domestic inventory and consumption situations [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Variety 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Current Situation**: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the expected increase in South American soybean production, high domestic soybean inventory, and changes in palm oil production and exports, domestic oils and fats are expected to have a slow de - stocking process [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the MPOB and USDA supply - demand reports [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Current Situation**: Internationally, the market is awaiting the USDA supply - demand report, with pessimistic expectations. Domestically, short - term import soybean auctions will increase supply pressure, and inventory is high. In the medium - term, the procurement progress of imported soybeans in January is 56%, and the expected import of Australian seeds suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. In the long - term, South American weather determines the price trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to be weak and volatile. They are expected to seek support at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the supply - demand report [2][6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Current Situation**: The price of domestic corn shows a differentiated trend. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China is low, and the price is strong. The price in the port area has declined due to the futures callback. The news of reserve auctions has affected market sentiment [6][7]. - **Outlook**: The price will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Current Situation**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures price has rebounded, but the short - term supply and demand in the spot market are still loose. The supply will be in surplus until April 2026, and is expected to gradually decrease after May 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". The near - month contracts are likely to be weak, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse spread strategies [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Current Situation**: The market lacks strong driving forces, with weak downstream buying support and a bearish market sentiment. Although overseas supply is increasing seasonally, there is still pressure on raw material prices to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to continue the volatile trend, and it is difficult to have a trending market [10]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Current Situation**: The bullish driving force on the disk is insufficient. Although the price of raw material butadiene has rebounded, there is resistance in high - price transactions [11]. - **Outlook**: The disk will maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Current Situation**: The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weak but supported by rigid purchases. The commercial inventory is rising seasonally, and the 01 contract is strong recently but faces pressure above [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Current Situation**: In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus, and the price is likely to be weak. In the short term, the 01 contract has obvious support below [11][13]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to be weak and volatile. In the short term, there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Current Situation**: Last week, the pulp futures rose rapidly, and there were some bullish news. However, there is still pressure from hedging at high prices [14]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures will mainly show a wide - range volatile trend. If it回调s to the previous low, it can be allocated long, and it is recommended to wait and see at high prices [14]. 3.1.10 Offset Printing Paper - **Current Situation**: Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the price of offset printing paper is under pressure. The overall social demand is weak, and paper enterprises may adjust supply and demand by reducing prices or production [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will be weakly stable [15]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Current Situation**: The supply may be reduced seasonally. The overseas shipping volume is expected to decline, and there are quarantine issues with Japanese cedar. The domestic demand support is insufficient, and the 01 contract has no clear driving force [15][17]. - **Outlook**: The log market will remain in a loose pattern, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts at low prices [17]. 3.2 Commodity Index - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16%; the agricultural products index was 930.18, with a daily decline of 0.22%, a 5 - day decline of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.65%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.57% [174][176].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and concerns about supply disruptions are pushing up prices, but the lack of full recovery in real consumption may limit price increases. Also, beware of price adjustments after the Fed's possible December rate cut. Consider low - buying opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. - In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply has a contraction expectation, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4][8]. - **Analysis**: Codelco is raising the premium for refined copper supplied to Chinese customers in 2026. CSPT will reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased. On December 8, the average premium of 1 electrolytic copper spot decreased. As of December 8, copper inventory increased [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure [4][11]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, alumina prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipt decreased. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend. The current large gap between futures and spot prices may lead to the spot price following the decline of the futures price [11][12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to decline, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4][13]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased in some regions. In November 2025, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. An Indonesian aluminum plant will start trial operation in mid - December [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the market fluctuates at a high level [4][15]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the price of some aluminum alloy products decreased. The import of scrap aluminum in October increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand has a marginal improvement, and social inventory decreases slightly while warehouse receipt inventory increases [15][16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory has decreased, and zinc prices will have a short - term rebound [4][18]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the premium of 0 zinc in different regions varied. As of December 8, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. A zinc mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the domestic zinc export window is open [18]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory is decreasing, and lead prices may continue to rebound [4][19]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The inventory of lead ingots in the social warehouse decreased, but the decrease may slow down. The profit of secondary lead smelting is high, and the production of lead - acid battery factories is at a high level [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The non - ferrous metal market is generally strong, and nickel prices fluctuate accordingly [4][21]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Recently, there have been transactions of domestic and Indonesian high - nickel pig iron. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the overall supply of nickel - related products is relatively loose [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The transaction price of nickel - iron has bottomed out and rebounded, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates [4][23]. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased slightly. Recently, there have been transactions of domestic and Indonesian high - nickel pig iron. In November, stainless - steel production decreased slightly, and in December, it may decline further. Social inventory has not increased significantly, but there is still inventory pressure [23][24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns continue, and tin prices fluctuate strongly at a high level [4][24]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The spot price of tin decreased slightly. The复产 of a mine in Wa State is slow, Indonesian tin exports are restricted, and African tin production is affected. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing [24][26]. 4. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial product index was 2216.09, down 0.16% [154]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 8, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2576.49, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day increase of 2.55%, a 1 - month increase of 3.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.62% [156].

铂观点：价格跟随贵⾦属板块波动，等待进⼀步向上驱动 主要逻辑：进入12月，临近美国总统提名美联储主席，降息再次成为 贵金属板块的核心交易矛盾。当前，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文· 哈赛特是下任美联储主席的头号候选人，其鸽派发言引发外界对美联 储独立性的进一步担忧，铂价有所走强。长期来看，铂金供给集中度 高导致扰动风险持续存在，需求在工业和投资端的带动下将稳步扩 张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性，因此长 期维持多头观点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-09 降息交易成为市场重心，铂钯高位震荡 12⽉8⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.05元/克，涨幅0.78%；钯主⼒ 合约收盘价为383.70元/克，涨幅1.07%。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议关注多 铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货紧张延续，价格保持坚挺 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-09 中国原油进⼝延续⾼增⻓，纯苯港⼝库 存压⼒较⼤ 12月8日我国召开中央政治局会议，领导人明确将扩大内需作为 2026年的首要经济任务，并承诺加大跨周期调节力度，会议也表示继续实 施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。当日我国公布外贸数据， 11月出口同比增5.9%，进口增1.9%；其中11月我国原油进口5089万吨，同 比增长4.88%，累积增长3.2%。正如我们一再提及的，2025年全球石油需 求都有些超预期表现。油价在连续三日上涨后小幅走低，普京上周承诺将 向印度"不间断供应"燃料，市场密切关注俄罗斯原油的销售进展。 板块逻辑： 液体化工库存近期走势略有分化。乙二醇华东港口周一数据显示累库 8.06%，近几周乙二醇持续累库，且1月新装置投产在即。纯苯周度累库累 库16%，纯苯库存直逼近五年最高，而不仅仅是季节性五年最高；因为苯 乙烯装置前期的检修，苯乙烯周度去库，港口库存仍是五年最高，因货源 较为集中，苯乙烯期价强于纯苯。近期煤炭价格也连日走弱，因冬季取暖 不及预期且逐步累库，煤化工的成本支撑因此弱化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, precious metals fluctuated steadily, and the market was calm ahead of the FOMC meeting. In the short term, the market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. After the decision is announced, there may be some downward pressure, but the adjustment range is likely to be limited. The precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend with fluctuations within the month. In the long run, the narrative of the shrinking US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Price Logic**: The expectation of loose liquidity remains the core driver at the quarterly level. The probability of the relatively dovish candidate Hasset being nominated as the Fed Chair is increasing. The period from nomination to taking office may be the most favorable time for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence. Also, the leading effect of silver is supporting the gold price, and the squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper, which may remain a hot trading topic this month. In the long run, the US monetary expansion and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle towards a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity. The price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4400], and that of London silver in the range of [53, 60] this week [3] - **Index Performance**: On December 8, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily decline of 0.13%, a 5 - day increase of 0.66%, a 1 - month increase of 6.42%, and a year - to - date increase of 59.17% [45] 3.2 Key News - **Japan's Economy**: Japan's real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q3 was revised down to - 2.3% (expected - 2%, initial - 1.8%), and the quarterly growth rate was revised down to - 0.6% (expected - 0.5%, initial - 0.4%), indicating the first economic contraction in six quarters. The Japanese government submitted a supplementary budget for 2025 to the temporary parliament. Under the "responsible and active fiscal" policy, the general accounting expenditure reached 18.3034 trillion yen, a post - COVID high. More than 60% of the fiscal revenue will be filled by issuing additional national bonds [2] - **US Economy**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, and the inflation rate is expected to drop significantly next year. The bond market will have its best performance since 2020 [2] 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On December 8, 2025, the commodity index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16% [43]