Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly strong" rating to precious metals, expecting the price of London gold to range between $3,900 - $4,200 per ounce and London silver between $47 - $52 per ounce [3] Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US meeting released positive signals, easing trade tensions and reducing safe-haven buying. However, it did not change the medium-term logic of easing and credit contraction. The Fed's policy combination is "loose with stability", which suppresses short-term bullish sentiment on the interest rate side while maintaining support on the liquidity side [1][3] - The improvement in the trade environment boosts manufacturing expectations, and the relatively tight liquidity in the London market makes silver's performance relatively strong. If the subsequent Sino-US negotiations continue to improve, the recovery of industrial demand will drive the silver price to strengthen further [3] - If the negotiation results are successfully implemented but the macro data is weak, precious metals will maintain a shockingly strong pattern [3] Summary by Directory Key Information - The results of the Sino-US leaders' meeting are positive. Trump said he would lower tariffs on fentanyl-related goods and discuss the export of NVIDIA AI chips. The two sides reached a consensus on rare earth supply and agricultural product procurement, and market risk appetite rebounded [2] - The high-level talks focused on supply chain and investment issues. China proposed to selectively open investment areas, and Trump said he was "willing to consider resuming investment cooperation in non-sensitive industries" [2] - Geopolitical issues are still sensitive. The US refused to make substantial concessions in the security field but will maintain strategic ambiguity. Although it is difficult to form a "big deal" in this meeting, it helps to control conflict risks [2] - Gold ETFs had the largest single-day outflow in nearly half a year, indicating that institutions took short-term profits [2] Price Logic - Gold: The Sino-US meeting released a signal of easing, suppressing safe-haven buying in the short term. The Fed's policy combination is "loose with stability", which suppresses short-term bullish sentiment on the interest rate side while maintaining support on the liquidity side. Although some funds took profits at high levels, central bank gold purchases and fiscal deficit expansion still provide medium-term support [3] - Silver: The improvement in the trade environment boosts manufacturing expectations, and the relatively tight liquidity in the London market makes silver's performance relatively strong. If the subsequent Sino-US negotiations continue to improve, the recovery of industrial demand will drive the silver price to strengthen further. However, considering the high volatility of precious metals, short-term technical corrections need to be guarded against [3] Market Performance - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was not detailed; the commodity index was 2,250.38, down 0.57%; the commodity 20 index was 2,544.78, down 0.52%; the industrial product index was 2,246.75, down 0.87% [42] - The precious metal index was 3,210.36, with a daily decline of 0.13%, a decline of 2.14% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.77% in the past month, and an increase of 45.11% since the beginning of the year [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is to hold, for the stock index options is to hold a covered combination, and for the treasury bond futures is to expect a bullish trend with fluctuations [7][8][10] Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, external events have concluded, leading to the release of the crowded technology funds. It is advisable to hold long positions in dividend + IM and wait for the next style switch [6][7] - For stock index options, there is a certain short - term hedging need. It is recommended to hold a covered combination to increase returns [7] - For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment remains bullish. The bond market is expected to fluctuate upward, especially in the mid - to - late fourth quarter [3][8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell after moving sideways, losing the 4000 - point mark, with trading volume slightly increasing to 2.46 trillion yuan. The conclusion of important events and the far - lower - than - expected third - quarter profits of a leading optical module company triggered profit - taking in funds. It is recommended to hold long positions in dividend + IM [7] - The current - month basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at - 8.51 points, - 0.01 points, - 34.51 points, and - 46.68 points respectively, changing by - 4.07 points, - 2.59 points, 5.86 points, and 2.83 points compared to the previous trading day [6] - The inter - delivery spread (current month - next month) of IF, IH, IC, and IM was 11.4 points, 1.6 points, 52.2 points, and 74 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 0.6 points, 0.8 points, 1.6 points, and 0.8 points [6] - The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 12176 lots, 7069 lots, 7396 lots, and 20311 lots respectively [6] Stock Index Options - The underlying market fluctuated in the morning and declined across the board in the afternoon. The Shanghai 500ETF fell 1.28%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.11%. The trading volume of the options market was 1.1571 billion yuan, a 32.80% increase from the previous day [2][7] - The put - holding ratios of the 500ETF and ChiNext ETF, which were high the previous day, declined. The skewness of each variety showed an upward trend, and short - term hedging intensity may increase. It is recommended to hold a covered combination [2][7] Treasury Bond Futures - Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. As of the close, the T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed by 0.05%, 0.00%, - 0.01%, and 0.19% respectively. The central bank's net injection of 130.1 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations continued to keep the capital market loose [3][8] - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. The stock - bond seesaw effect supported the performance of long - term bonds in the afternoon. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading will be beneficial to the bond market in the short term [3][8][10] - The current - quarter trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL were 68993 lots, 54366 lots, 33991 lots, and 128226 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 22365 lots, - 44952 lots, - 22127 lots, and 2790 lots. The open interests were 245110 lots, 149269 lots, 73541 lots, and 144078 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 1169 lots, 160 lots, 2319 lots, and - 1963 lots [8] - The current - quarter to next - quarter spreads of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.320 yuan, 0.105 yuan, 0.062 yuan, and 0.270 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.010 yuan, - 0.025 yuan, - 0.024 yuan, and - 0.040 yuan [8] - The current - quarter spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, and T*3 - TL were 103.500 yuan, 99.043 yuan, 301.586 yuan, and 209.740 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.070 yuan, - 0.039 yuan, - 0.148 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan [8] - The current - quarter basis of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.116 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, - 0.066 yuan, and 0.229 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of 0.149 yuan, 0.054 yuan, 0.021 yuan, and 0.011 yuan [8] Economic Calendar - On October 27, 2025, China's year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits above designated size in September was 21.6%, higher than the previous value of 20.4% [11] - On October 27, 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the eurozone's seasonally adjusted money supply M3 in September was 2.8%, lower than the previous value of 2.9% [11] - On October 29, 2025, the month - on - month rate of the seasonally adjusted pending home sales index in the US in September was 0%, lower than the previous value of 4% [11] - On October 30, 2025, the upper limit of the US federal funds rate target in October was 4%, down from the previous value of 4.25% [11] Important Information and News Tracking - In Sino - US trade, the US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. Both sides will adjust relevant export control measures and extend some tariff exclusion measures [12] - In environmental protection, the Ministry of Commerce issued an implementation opinion on expanding green trade, aiming to promote the green and low - carbon development of logistics [13] - In the anti - involution of the steel industry, Henan Province issued an action plan for the quality improvement and upgrading of the steel industry, focusing on enterprise restructuring and integration [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," and "oscillating strongly" [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and suggests corresponding investment strategies [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Product 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Macro environment includes the US government "shutdown," Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical factors. From the industrial side, US soybean data is suspended, Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower than last year, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and palm oil and rapeseed oil have different inventory trends. - **Outlook**: Palm oil oscillates, rapeseed oil oscillates, and soybean oil oscillates strongly [5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The Sino - US talks did not exceed expectations, the US soybean adjusted, and the domestic soybean meal was resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Internationally, the impact of Sino - US talks is over, and attention is paid to China's soybean purchases. Domestically, short - term downstream procurement interest is average, and long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. - **Outlook**: The US soybean is undergoing technical adjustment, and attention is paid to China's purchase volume. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread of soybean meal and the double - buy option [6]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The futures price dropped again, and continue to hold short positions for observation. - **Logic**: The recent price rebound was due to low inventory of grain - using enterprises, slow harvest progress, and increased purchases by state - owned warehouses. However, there are still downward drivers in the future, such as high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the stop - profit rhythm. Consider long - term low - absorption and near - far month reverse spread strategies [6][7]. 3.4. Hogs - **Viewpoint**: The second - fattening sentiment weakened, and hog prices declined. - **Logic**: In the short term, second - fattening utilization increased, but the price rebound inhibited sentiment. In the medium term, hog supply will increase in Q4. In the long term, sow capacity is being reduced, and supply pressure will ease in H2 2026. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. The hog industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation," and pay attention to reverse spread strategy opportunities [1][2][7]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The willingness to sell increased, and rubber prices fell from high levels. - **Logic**: Macro factors no longer provided upward momentum, and the previous sharp rise increased the willingness to sell. The market is a bottom - up rebound rather than a reversal. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. There may be short - term upward space, but chasing long positions has risks [8][9]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Raw materials continued to weaken, and the futures price temporarily stabilized at a low level. - **Logic**: The BR futures price rebounded and then oscillated after hitting a new low. Due to the continuous decline of butadiene prices, there may be further downward space. - **Outlook**: There may be a bottom - up rebound, but there is a possibility of hitting new lows [10][11]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Macro - level benefits have been realized, and cotton prices have returned to the fundamental trading logic. - **Logic**: After the macro - level uncertainties are resolved, the market focuses on fundamentals. New cotton supply is increasing, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season is ending. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [11][12]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The expected reduction in imports supports sugar prices, but it is still bearish in the medium and long term. - **Logic**: Internationally, supply will increase in the new sugar - making season. Domestically, imports decreased in September, and the market expects a further reduction in syrup and premixed powder imports. - **Outlook**: The domestic market may rebound in the short term but is bearish in the medium and long term. Consider a rebound - short strategy [13][14]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is generally weak, and pulp futures are unlikely to rise significantly. - **Logic**: Fundamental data is bearish, and the futures price increase has not effectively driven up the spot price. There are issues such as weak demand and over - supply in the pulp market. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14][15]. 3.10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset paper oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: Supply pressure exists due to new production capacity, dealers have high inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the cost support from wood pulp is limited. - **Outlook**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and pay attention to new driving factors [16]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Logs will maintain low - level oscillations in the short term. - **Logic**: Futures prices are weak due to concentrated port arrivals, low sales of integrated timber, and high blue - stain wood pressure in the future. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. Speculative investors can wait and see or try to buy at low prices when it falls below 780 [17][18].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/10/31 China Futures Daily Note Macro News: Meetings between Chinese and US presidents ended, and the two sides jointly suspended measures such as tariffs and export controls. Futures Prices: On Oct 30, equity indices fell while most CGB futures rose. Commodities showed mixed performances with limited ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure from supply and geopolitical factors. Crude oil faces supply pressure and geopolitical risks, and most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The polyester terminal demand is improving, but the supply side of chemicals is a key negative factor. The market's response to the Sino - US summit is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news," and the OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production at the upcoming meeting. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - The polyester chain's demand side is improving, with better terminal fabric shipments, inventory reduction, and improved nominal cash flow. However, the supply side of chemicals is a major negative factor. The meeting of the PTA and bottle - chip leading enterprises on the 30th had no substantial policies, which led to a decline in the day - trading session. [3] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: The Sino - US summit results are in line with expectations, but concerns about Russian oil remain. The macro and geopolitical drivers for oil prices are limited. Supply pressure suppresses prices, but geopolitical concerns still support prices to some extent. The price is expected to decline slowly and fluctuate weakly. [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price has no support. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ may increase production in November, Saudi Arabia reduces the export discount of crude oil to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict and the realization of the positive news from the Sino - US summit lead to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the asphalt inventory pressure is large. [7] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil, the fuel oil futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ supply increase and falling oil prices lead to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak. [8] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows crude oil fluctuations, has low valuation, and faces supply increase and demand decline trends. [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory pressure still exists, the olefins have declined, and methanol fluctuates lower. - **Main Logic**: The futures price fluctuates lower. The high port inventory suppresses prices, but there is still low - buying value considering the potential Iranian disturbances in winter. [26] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is under continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the lack of export information updates from the nitrogen fertilizer association meeting. [26] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The coal - based production rate is continuously rising, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorates month - on - month. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, the coal - based production rate is high, the supply - demand pattern weakens, and the port inventory accumulates. [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: The meeting has no substantial measures, and PX returns to the fundamental pricing logic. - **Main Logic**: The crude oil price fluctuates and falls. Some PX factories have maintenance, and the supply is temporarily stable. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the market gives back the previous emotional premium. [11] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The meeting has no substantial resolution, and PTA processing fees are still under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost fluctuates and falls, the meeting has no substantial production reduction, some devices may restart, and the downstream polyester demand provides some support. [12] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The meeting has no positive news, the market sentiment turns cold, and polyester staple fiber remains consolidated. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is poor, the meeting has no clear production reduction measures, the supply side has a device restart, and the downstream demand is for rigid replenishment. The inventory is at a healthy level, and the profit has some support. [22][23] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The PTA anti - involution meeting has no positive news. - **Main Logic**: The meeting fails to support the price, the supply - demand is stable, and the absolute price follows the upstream fluctuation, while the processing fee has some support. [24] 3.2.12 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by macro - events, pure benzene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The naphtha price is strong, but the opening of the Shandong - East China arbitrage window and the rumored maintenance of styrene devices suppress the price. [14][15] 3.2.13 Styrene - **View**: After the macro - disturbance, styrene rises and then falls. - **Main Logic**: Styrene follows the oil price to rebound, but the rebound is weak due to new production capacity and weak downstream follow - up. [16] 3.2.14 LLDPE - **View**: Maintenance slightly increases, and LLDPE is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The macro - situation, oil price, and its own fundamentals limit the upside space, and the short - term price fluctuates within a range. [28] 3.2.15 PP - **View**: Maintenance is stable, the propane CP price is reduced, and PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price drags down PP, and its own fundamentals have limited support. [29] 3.2.16 PL - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in PL prices. [30] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: Market sentiment cools down, and PVC weakens. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure due to increased production, limited downstream demand, and anti - dumping pressure on exports. [31] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the supply is high while the demand is inelastic, leading to inventory accumulation. [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The October FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25bp and will stop quantitative tightening on December 1st, in line with market expectations. There are differences within the Fed on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was somewhat hawkish, emphasizing a "data-dependent" approach and "risk neutrality" [7]. - Domestic macro: On October 28th, the "Proposal" and "Explanation" related to the 15th Five - Year Plan were released, enhancing the strategic status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit on October 30th was positive, with many consensuses on economic and trade consultations [7]. - Asset view: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. With the implementation of interest rate cuts, progress in Sino - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, it is expected to benefit equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities also have a chance to rebound, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates in October and will stop quantitative tightening. There are internal differences on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was hawkish, emphasizing data dependence and risk neutrality [7]. - Domestic: The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan - related documents enhanced the status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit was positive, with many economic and trade consensuses [7]. - Asset: Short - term balanced allocation. Equity sectors, non - ferrous metals, and black commodities are expected to benefit, while precious metals may fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Technology events catalyze the active growth style, with small and micro - cap funds being crowded. Short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock Index Options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and economic and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals. Concerns include the US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.4 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: There are continuous policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Iron Ore: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and emotional disturbances are more obvious. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coke: The start - up rate continues to decline, and price increases are about to be implemented. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coking Coal: There are continuous supply disturbances, and coal prices are relatively strong. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Other: For other products in this sector, such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with corresponding concerns for each product [8]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with different concerns for each metal, such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [8]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - For most products in this sector, such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile or volatile downward, with concerns including supply and demand, policy, and price fluctuations of related raw materials [10]. 3.8 Agriculture - For various agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock products, the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with concerns including weather, supply and demand, and policy [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. Some planning contents may have medium - to long - term impacts on major asset classes. For example, strategic positions of science, technology, and emerging industries are strengthened; there are impacts on consumption, investment, anti - involution, macro - economic policies, financial markets, RMB internationalization, and supply chain security [9][10]. - For different asset classes: - Equity index: The market is expected to consolidate at the end of the year and has an offensive window before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [2]. - Government bonds: The short - term impact is limited, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias in November and December [2]. - Commodities: The demand - pull effect will diverge, with new energy - related demand growth likely to benefit more [3]. - Energy transition and carbon neutrality: Focus on the shift between traditional and new energy sources, and carbon prices may fluctuate upward [3]. - Technological self - reliance and advanced manufacturing: Sectors related to new - quality productive forces are expected to maintain rapid growth [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Economy - On October 28, the Proposals and the Explanation were released. The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. In terms of structure, compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline, the importance of opening - up and social welfare protection chapters has increased. Digital development is incorporated into the science and technology chapter, new - type urbanization is merged into regional economic layout, and two other chapters are consolidated into Part III [8][9]. - Qualitative planning is made for the next five - year key tasks, with quantitative targets and detailed arrangements to be determined in the Plan Outline. Some planning contents may impact major asset classes: - Science, technology, and emerging industries: Stocks and related commodities in the technology sector may benefit as key technological fields are expected to attract more capital and real demand [10]. - Consumption: "Vigorously boost consumption" may lead to relaxed restrictions on real estate and vehicle purchases, benefiting related stocks and commodities [12]. - Investment: The proportion of construction - related demand in commodities may decline, while products related to "a better life" may have incremental demand [12]. - Anti - involution: Policy attention on key sectors' prices will continue, curbing disorderly competition and regulating local government investment - promotion practices [13]. - Macroeconomic policy: The pricing logic of refined oil products may change due to potential consumption tax reform [13]. - Financial markets: The equity market will focus more on shareholder returns, and the futures and derivatives markets may enter a new development stage [13]. - RMB internationalization: The central level of RMB exchange rate volatility may decline [14]. - Supply chain security: Certain strategic minerals may see incremental demand [14]. 3.2 Equity Index - The equity market has fully priced in short - term policy positives, and the medium - term upward trend is consolidated. Adopt a long - term perspective with short - term tactical operations, focusing on four policy themes: - Stabilize growth: Expect further strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustments [15][16]. - Manufacturing and technology: Emphasize advanced manufacturing and self - reliance, highlighting emerging and future industries and key fields [17]. - Optimize traditional industries: Require major cyclical industries to enhance their position and competitiveness, which may increase leading enterprises' market share [18]. - Boost domestic demand: Focus on people's livelihood, but the shift to consumption - driven growth takes time. The stock market is expected to be optimistic before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [19][20]. 3.3 China's Government Bonds - The Proposals convey a medium - to long - term policy tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" with high - quality development as the theme. The weight of economic growth may increase, and growth sources and modes may adjust. - Regarding monetary policy, it aims to improve the central banking system, build a sound monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macroprudential governance system. The next stage of building the macroprudential governance framework focuses on four areas [22][23]. - The short - term impact on the bond market is limited. In November and December, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias, influenced by monetary policy, year - end institutional allocations, and fund fee reform [24]. 3.4 Commodities - On the supply side, the Proposals call for optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, which will support commodity prices through supply elasticity management in different sectors such as ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products [26]. - On the demand side, policies support economic growth and set a floor for commodity demand, but the impact varies by sector. New energy - related metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium will see clear demand growth, while other commodities face different challenges and opportunities [27]. - The commodities market is entering a phase of structural divergence. Short - term policy expectations may boost sentiment, but long - term trends depend on fundamentals [28]. 3.5 Energy transition and Carbon Neutrality - Energy: The Proposals emphasize accelerating new energy system construction, promoting green transformation, and increasing new energy supply. They also call for developing new energy storage and strengthening power grid construction, which may increase demand for certain metals. For fossil energy, consumption is expected to peak, and the consumption structure may change [30]. - Carbon market: The Proposals mention expanding the carbon market and developing a voluntary emission reduction market. In the short term, carbon prices are affected by quota carry - over policies; in the long term, they may fluctuate upward due to tightened quota allocations and market expansion [31]. 3.6 Technological Self - Reliance and Advanced Manufacturing - The 15th Five - Year Plan Proposals elevate scientific and technological self - reliance to the second main objective. It emphasizes advanced manufacturing and breakthroughs in "bottleneck" technologies. Investment in key areas like integrated circuits is expected to maintain rapid growth, driving related material demand [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire industry is "Swing" [8][9][10][11][14][16][17][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the industry has marginal weakening, the contradictions are limited. Recently, the macro has continuously released positive news, strengthening the lower support for the prices of sector varieties, which is consistent with the previous judgment of weakened industrial chain logic and strengthened macro - expectations. As long as the hot metal output does not decline more than expected, the macro level will continue to support the prices of sector varieties [8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The daily consumption of sintered powder ore by steel enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term downward expectation of hot metal. But the strengthening of the macro - atmosphere continued to push up the prices of sector varieties. The macro - positives included the release of the "Urban Business Quality Improvement Action Plan" and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders [2] 2. Different Element and Product Analyses Iron Element - For iron ore, the fundamentals have marginal weakening, but the overall contradictions are not prominent. The macro - expectation dominates in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate with support. For scrap steel, the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to follow the finished products due to warming macro - sentiment and slightly improved finished product data [3] Carbon Element - For coke, environmental protection restrictions have limited impact, and the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. With rising costs, coke has started a third round of price increases, but steel mills' profits are under pressure, so the price is expected to oscillate. For coking coal, supply is hard to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy due to low upstream inventory. The third - round price increase boosts the market, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, short - term cost stability and high steel output support the price, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is insufficient. For ferrosilicon, high finished product output and stable costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward space is limited [3] Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the recent strengthening of the futures price has driven a positive futures - spot feedback, but the replenishment space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction through marketization is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward. For soda ash, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro, with the long - term price center moving down to promote capacity reduction [3][8] 3. Individual Product Analyses Steel - Spot market transactions are average, but speculative sentiment has improved. Steel production shows a downward sign, while demand continues to recover, and inventory is decreasing. Short - term the futures price has a rebound drive, but the upward space is limited due to high inventory [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions increased, and the spot price was strong. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased slightly, and the arrival volume has a rebound expectation. Demand - side iron water output declined marginally, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term with macro - expectations dominant [9][10] Scrap Steel - Supply has decreased slightly, and electric furnace profits have increased. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to follow the finished products [11] Coke - The futures price oscillated strongly. Supply is hard to increase due to cost and environmental factors. Demand may decline slightly, and inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate with continued game between steel and coke enterprises [12] Coking Coal - The futures price oscillated strongly. Supply is hard to improve due to production disturbances in mines. Import resources are tight, and inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [13] Glass - The price oscillated. Supply may be affected by gas - related changes, but short - term output decline is limited. Demand is weakening, and the replenishment ability is limited. The price rebound space is limited, and it may oscillate downward in the long - term [14] Soda Ash - The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Supply is stable, and demand is okay. The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price has strong bottom support but lacks upward driving force in the short - term. In the long - term, the price center will move down [16] Manganese Silicon - The futures price oscillated strongly following the upward trend of the black sector. Cost increases are limited, and demand support is weakening due to expected steel production decline. Supply is at a high level, and the price increase driving force is insufficient [17] Ferrosilicon - The futures price rebounded after a decline. Cost has increased, and supply pressure is accumulating. Demand may decline due to expected steel production decline. The price has support but limited upward space [18] 4. Index Information Comprehensive Index - The commodity index was 2263.37, up 0.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2558.20, up 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2266.37, up 1.23% [98] Section Index - The steel industry chain index was 2059.83 on October 29, 2025, with a daily increase of 1.85%, a 5 - day increase of 2.55%, a 1 - month increase of 1.03%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.30% [100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Outlook: Oscillating with an upward trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is under impact, and the expectation of long - term resumption of shipping has weakened again. The tariff market is relatively optimistic. The low shipping capacity in weeks 45 and 46 supports the loading rates of OCEAN and GEMINI. There is still an expected price increase in mid - November. After the positive event on the macro - level is realized tomorrow, low - buying opportunities for contracts 12 and 02 can be considered [1] Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Price - MSK will increase the peak - season surcharge to $300/FEU from November 12, up from $100/FEU at the beginning of November. YNL has lowered the shipping price in early November to $1850/FEU, a $50 decrease from the previous level. GEMINI: NSK's shipping price for the second week of November is $2200/FEB, and HPL's price in early November remains at $2135 - $2335. OCEAN: 00GL's price in the first half of November is $2150 - $2400/FEU. MSGSPA: YML's price in early November has been reduced from $1900 to $1850/FEU, while MSC, ONE, and HRN maintain their prices at $2265, $2135, and $1906/FEU respectively [1] Futures Contracts - Contracts 12 and 02 oscillated strongly today. The 12 - contract once rose more than 65 points during the session, reaching 1883.5 points, the highest since last Friday, with an increase of more than 3300 lots. At the close, the 12 - contract closed at 1871 points, up 5.08%; the 02 - contract rose 3.66% to 1606 points, with an increase of nearly 2000 lots. The increases of contracts 04, 06, and 08 are between 2.88% and 3.5% [1] Geopolitical and Trade Events - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered a "powerful strike" on Hamas, putting the cease - fire agreement brokered by the US into crisis. The Chinese and US leaders will hold a meeting on October 30 to exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The improvement in Sino-US relations and the release of the 15th Five-Year Plan have led to a further improvement in the macro outlook. In the short to medium term, supply disruptions and improved macro expectations are driving the rise of base metals, with copper leading the way. In the long term, potential stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up prices [2]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations and the easing of trade tensions. Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to overseas supply disruptions and a relatively low valuation compared to copper. Zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [2][8][14][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **View**: Copper prices are trending strongly due to the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations [8]. - **Logic**: The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations have improved market sentiment. Supply disruptions in copper mines and a decline in electrolytic copper production have also supported prices. However, high prices have limited demand, and inventory changes need to be monitored [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the medium term [9]. 3.2 Alumina - **View**: Alumina prices are rebounding due to increased anti-involution sentiment [9]. - **Logic**: High-cost production capacity has fluctuated, but the overall production capacity has increased slightly. Domestic inventory has continued to accumulate, and ore prices have weakened. However, the low valuation has attracted more investors, increasing the possibility of price fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to remain volatile due to an oversupply in the short term and a low valuation [12]. 3.3 Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum prices are rising due to continuous overseas supply disruptions [14]. - **Logic**: The overseas interest rate cut expectation and the release of the 15th Five-Year Plan have improved market sentiment. Although domestic production capacity has increased, overseas supply disruptions have tightened the long-term supply outlook. Demand has remained stable, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The high copper-aluminum ratio has also supported aluminum prices [14][15]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short term and continue to increase in the medium term due to limited supply growth and resilient demand [15]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Aluminum alloy prices are oscillating at a high level due to an increase in warehouse receipts [16]. - **Logic**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported costs. Uncertain policies and weak demand have led to a slight reduction in production, but the overall impact is limited. Demand has shown marginal improvement, and inventory has continued to increase [16]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to strong cost support and weak supply-demand improvement. In the medium term, prices are expected to remain volatile due to uncertain policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions [16][18]. 3.5 Zinc - **View**: Zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [19]. - **Logic**: The easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations and the clarity of the 15th Five-Year Plan have led to the realization of macro optimism. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelter profitability has improved, leading to strong production willingness. However, domestic consumption has entered the off-season, and demand is expected to be average. Although the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended, zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term [19]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term and decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [19]. 3.6 Lead - **View**: Lead prices are expected to remain strongly volatile due to a high virtual-to-physical ratio in the SHFE 2512 contract [21]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has slightly decreased, and the original-to-recycled lead price difference has remained stable. The supply of waste batteries has remained stable, and the profitability of recycled lead smelters has slightly narrowed. However, the resumption of production by previously shut-down smelters has increased production. Demand has remained strong during the peak season, and lead-acid battery factories have maintained a high operating rate [21]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to remain strongly volatile due to a tight supply-demand balance, high costs, and a weak US dollar [21][22]. 3.7 Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices are oscillating due to an increase in inventory [23]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment is still dominating the market, and the static valuation is stable. The supply of nickel mines is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. Nickel salt prices have slightly declined, and the profitability of salt factories has improved slightly. However, the oversupply of electrolytic nickel and the large inventory have put pressure on prices [24]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to an increase in inventory [24]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Stainless steel prices have slightly increased due to a decrease in warehouse receipts [25]. - **Logic**: Nickel iron prices have weakened, while chromium prices have remained stable. Stainless steel production has increased in September due to higher steel prices and seasonal demand. However, the demand outlook is uncertain, and inventory depletion has slowed down [25]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to a decrease in warehouse receipts and a slight increase in prices [25]. 3.9 Tin - **View**: Tin prices are oscillating at a high level due to positive macro expectations [27]. - **Logic**: Supply constraints in the tin market have strengthened the bottom support for prices. Production delays in Wa State and a change in the RKAB approval system in Indonesia have tightened the supply outlook. However, the resumption of production by Yunxi has increased the supply of refined tin, and inventory has started to accumulate, limiting the upside potential of prices [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile due to continuous supply disruptions [28].