投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-24 淡季现实与冬储预期博弈，盘⾯震荡运 ⾏ 钢⼚复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿盘⾯下⽅⽀撑较强，煤焦估值 低位修复。但⽬前淡季钢材供需双弱，铁矿港⼝库存累积，煤焦补库 空间有限，基本⾯亮点有限，盘⾯继续上涨乏⼒，价格震荡运⾏。 钢厂复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿盘面下方支撑较强，煤焦估值 低位修复。但目前淡季钢材供需双弱，铁矿港口库存累积，煤焦补库 空间有限，基本面亮点有限，盘面继续上涨乏力，价格震荡运行。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库未至，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需 稳，钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废 钢需求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，现货继续提降预期较 低，随着焦钢企业原料冬储补库逐渐开启，现货价格将有更强支撑， 预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基 本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 3. 合金方面：锰硅市场供需宽松格局难改，上游库存压力较大 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-24 美国再次扣押油轮扰动原油市场，化⼯ 分化格局延续 国际原油期货近期延续强势，美国打压委内瑞拉原油出口是主要的利 好提振。美国已登检一艘油轮、扣押另一艘，并在委内瑞拉附近追截第三 艘，以此对马杜罗政府施压；特朗普表示，美国将保留从被扣油轮上获得 的原油。俄罗斯原油交付仍不顺畅，印度官员表示，本月俄罗斯原油进口 量将降至日均80万桶。因受到有韧性的消费者与企业支出以及更为稳定的 贸易政策支撑，美国经济在第三季度以两年来的最快速度扩张，增速高达 4.3%，这对所有风险资产都带来提振。 板块逻辑： 化工的分化仍在延续，05合约据当前较长的时限，预期无法证伪。周 二乙二醇期价再创近年新低，因供应压力持续增加。继周度乙二醇开工率 环比上升2%后，华南又有40万吨装置重启，乙二醇开工率将环比再升1. 3%，虽然油制EG生产亏损，陆续开车重启表明企业的停车积极性并不大， 叠加周初港口库存再度攀升，EG持续走弱。价格新低后我们依旧未看到产 业链有明显的利好。于此类似也有聚烯烃，PP和和PE近几日的基差仍在持 续走弱，生产企业于 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On December 23, 2025, the GFEX platinum main contract hit the daily limit again, closing at 619.95 yuan/gram with a 10% increase; the palladium main contract closed at 532.55 yuan/gram with a 5.52% increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) announced that starting from the settlement on December 25, 2025, the daily limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12% [1]. - The platinum price continues to rise due to spot shortages and loose market liquidity. The domestic - NYMEX (tax - included) price difference of platinum is as high as 57.4 yuan/gram, and there is an arbitrage opportunity. However, due to issues such as hedging quota restrictions, the short - term price difference may remain high. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further increase the long - term price elasticity. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward [2]. - The palladium price continues to rise due to macro - support and geopolitical tensions. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, causing a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle again, the palladium price has some support at the bottom. It is expected that the short - term palladium price will fluctuate upward [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Platinum prices are accelerating upwards, and the domestic - foreign price difference is expanding. As of December 23, the premium of the GFEX platinum main contract at the domestic closing time compared to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) is 57.4 yuan/gram, much higher than the import cost, creating an arbitrage opportunity. However, due to hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. The GFEX adjusted the daily limit and margin ratio on December 23, and price volatility risks should be watched out for. In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase long - term price elasticity [2]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. The short - term increase in volatility increases risks. It is recommended to gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage can be seized [2]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The current geopolitical issue in Russia is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. In terms of demand, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle again, the palladium price has some support at the bottom [3]. - **Outlook**: Due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the short - term palladium price will fluctuate upward. The short - term sharp increase also increases risks. It is recommended to gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage can be seized [3]. Commodity Indexes - **Special Indexes**: The commodity index is 2306.25, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2645.83, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2233.41, up 0.31%; the PPI commodity index is 1381.84, up 0.15% [48]. - **Sector Indexes**: The non - ferrous metals index on December 23, 2025, is 2593.96, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 1.68%, a 1 - month increase of 5.20%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.37% [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping futures market is currently strong, driven by optimistic expectations in the spot market, with the EC main contract increasing in position and rising. The market anticipates that the overall opening freight rate center of SK will continue to rise. The spot market is still in the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the spot freight rate has not reached its peak yet. In the short term, the main contract is still in the process of reaching its peak and may then show wide - range fluctuations. The far - month contracts are suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations and may remain in a positive spread pattern [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Performance - After the EC opened, the main contract reached a maximum of 1900 points, with an increase in positions of over 5800 lots and a maximum increase of 10.42%. The near - and far - month contracts maintained a positive spread. As of the close, the 02 contract increased its positions by over 5000 lots, closing at 1871.8 points, up 8.8%, and the positions rose to 37,000 lots; the 04 contract closed at 116.6 points, up 3.4%, and the positions increased by 1634 lots. The 12 contract may decline slightly tomorrow [2][4] Spot Freight Rates - The post - market SCFIS was updated at 1589.20 points, up 5.2%, corresponding to the shipping price in mid - December at around $2250 - $2300/FEU. The spot freight rates of various shipping lines showed an upward trend. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate on January 1 was updated at $2530/FEU, a $30/FEU increase compared to the opening. The 0MA's opening freight rate in January was at $3745/FEU, a $1000/FEU increase compared to late December. The spot freight rate has not reached its peak yet, and the shipping companies may announce an increase in the spot freight rate in the second half of January [2][3][4] Market Influencing Factors - The market's expectation of significant over - capacity has eased because the resumption of navigation has not changed from expectation to reality. Geopolitical factors still have the possibility of recurrence, which promotes the overall rebound of the futures market. The last trading day of the 02 contract has a boosting effect on the contract price. There are still some disturbances in the market, such as the adjustment of spot shipping capacity, the uncertainty of the decline range after the spot price peaks, and the possible adjustment of the market position transfer [3][4] Market Outlook - It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the freight rates of shipping companies such as MSK in mid - to late January and whether the inflection point of the spot freight rate appears. The implementation of the Middle - East cease - fire agreement and the Russia - Ukraine conflict still has certain uncertainties. The main contract is expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the far - month contracts may remain in a positive spread pattern [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the given text. It mainly focuses on the daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - Price: $68 per dry ton, a decrease of $1 per dry ton compared to the previous period [3] - Spot price index on December 22: 2,754 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton [3] - Futures inventory on December 22: 168,677 tons, a decrease of 11,122 tons [3] - Import profit and loss on December 22: 15 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - Domestic ore price on December 22: 509 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period [4] - SMI 400 average price on December 22: 21,930 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton; the premium and discount was -170 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [4] - Baotai A0012 price on December 22: 21,300 yuan per ton, unchanged [4] - Electrolytic aluminum smelting profit on December 22: 5,684 yuan per ton, an increase of 124 yuan per ton [47] - Futures inventory on December 22: 76,088 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [47] - Aluminum import profit and loss on December 22: -2,466 yuan per ton, a decrease of 318 yuan per ton [47] Aluminum Alloy - Scrap price difference of raw aluminum on December 22: 2,026 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton; the scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 2,779 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton [5] - Futures inventory on December 22: 70,161 tons, an increase of 28 tons [5] - Import profit and loss on December 22: -80 yuan per ton, an increase of 24 yuan per ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts. The pulp market is expected to be bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high [1]. - The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels. Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and US soybeans are expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - The corn and starch market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a weakening supply pressure expected in the second half of 2026 [8]. - The rubber price continued to fluctuate, and the market lacked strong driving forces [10][11]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [12]. - The cotton price continued to strengthen, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the long term, but the near-term contracts are restricted by hedging pressure [13]. - The sugar price is searching for a bottom, and it is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. - The double-offset paper market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17]. - The fundamentals of logs are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts [1]. - **Logic**: Positive factors include the rising US dollar price of broadleaf pulp, the supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills, the potential production reduction of other softwood pulp mills, and the relatively high actual demand for pulp. Negative factors include the difficulty in cost transfer for downstream paper products, the seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and the abundant liquidity of softwood pulp in the spot market [1]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high. The upper pressure level has shifted upward, with the 05 contract focusing on the pressure in the range of 5650 - 5750. The market is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. 3.2 Oils - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: The US soybean market was bearish due to sufficient supply and concerns about Chinese demand. The South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and the probability of inventory reduction at the origin is high. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support at the bottom [5]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean production outlook is optimistic, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the South American weather speculation. Domestically, the state reserve soybean auctions increased the market supply pressure, the seasonal de-stocking of soybean and soybean meal was slow, and the downstream consumption was weak [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [7]. 3.4 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Logic**: The upstream farmers are reluctant to sell, and the downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory. The market is in a tight balance state, and there are no major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the old wheat auction and the rumor of state reserve release [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation [7]. 3.5 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand increased during the Winter Solstice, and the inventory weight increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, with the price expected to fluctuate in a weak range. The far-month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [8]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The rubber price continued to fluctuate [10]. - **Logic**: The market lacked strong driving forces, and the geopolitical speculation was difficult to verify. The overseas supply increased seasonally, and the raw material price was firm, but there was a certain downward pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the market sentiment was bearish [11]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong [12]. - **Logic**: The BR futures contract was favored by funds due to the marginal improvement in the butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price. The butadiene price fluctuated upward last week, and the inventory pressure was slightly relieved [12]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, but there is pressure at the upper level in the short term, and adjustment may be needed [12]. 3.8 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price continued to strengthen [13]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US cotton production decreased slightly, and the ICE cotton price had weak upward momentum. India's cotton production is expected to decrease for the second consecutive year, which may support the ICE cotton price. Domestically, the cotton supply and demand balance sheet is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory, but if the apparent demand continues to grow, the new crop may be in a tight balance, which will increase the cotton price valuation. The commercial inventory accumulation speed is slower than the listing speed, indicating good consumption. There is an expectation of a reduction in the planting area next year, and the slow registration speed of warehouse receipts is also positive for the cotton price [13]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term due to sentiment, but beware of callback risks. Bullish in the long term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [13]. 3.9 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is searching for a bottom [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is expected to remain high, and the global sugar market is expected to be oversupplied in the new season. Domestically, the sugar production in November decreased year-on-year, and the supply will increase marginally with the concentrated start of the sugar cane crushing season [14][15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. 3.10 Double-Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure still exists, and the paper mills have a strong desire to raise prices due to continuous losses. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak balance state [17]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential upward movement of the market if the paper mills shut down due to high inventory and continuous losses [17]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom [19]. - **Logic**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the spot price stabilized. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the overseas shipping volume is expected to decrease in December and January. The 03 contract has relatively strong gaming characteristics [19]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the long - end of the bond market is weak. The short - term market is recommended for defensive allocation [1] - For stock index futures, the bearish factors are weakening, and the bullish hotspots are scattered. It is recommended to allocate defensively with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main lines, and large - cap stocks are better than small - cap stocks [1][7] - For stock index options, the implied volatility is falling to a low level. It is recommended to continue the covered call strategy for thickening [2][7] - For treasury bond futures, the long - end sentiment is still weak. The short - term is favorable for the short - end, while the long - end needs to be cautious [3][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and rebounded, standing above 3900 points, with a slight increase in trading volume to 1.88 trillion yuan. The basis and spread of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed, and the positions have also changed [7] - **Analysis of Factors**: The bearish factors have eased. The Japanese central bank's interest rate hike did not lead to the risk of carry - trade reversal, and the short - covering of IC and IM was dominant. The bullish hotspots are limited, with sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, storage chips, and precious metals being active [7] - **Outlook and Suggestions**: It is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year. It is recommended to allocate defensively with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main lines, and large - cap stocks are better. The operation suggestion is to hold Red - chip ETF + IC long positions [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the overall market liquidity of all varieties decreased, but the trading volume of Science and Technology Innovation ETF options rebounded significantly [2][7] - **Analysis of Factors**: After the Japanese interest rate hike, the market priced in the previous liquidity shock, and the rebound of US technology stocks eased market concerns. Domestically, it is in a policy vacuum period, and the end - of - year liquidity is tight with large - scale restricted - share unlocks expected [2][7] - **Outlook and Suggestions**: It is recommended to focus on defense in the short term. With the implied volatility back to a low - level shock, the covered call strategy can be continued [2][7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down collectively yesterday, with the long - end performing relatively weakly. The T main contract opened higher and then fluctuated downwards. The trading volume, positions, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL have changed [8] - **Analysis of Factors**: The long - end is weakly volatile. The central bank's unchanged LPR in December has cooled the broad - money expectation, and the stock market's rise has increased the risk appetite, suppressing the bond market. The short - end performs well due to loose funds, and the yield curve steepened yesterday [3][8][9] - **Outlook and Suggestions**: In the short term, loose funds are beneficial to the short - end, while the long - end needs to be cautious. The trend strategy is to be volatile. The hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. The basis strategy is to appropriately pay attention to basis widening. The curve strategy is that the curve may remain steep [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The LPR in China in December remained unchanged. The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter will be released on December 23, 2025, and the number of initial jobless claims in the US on December 20 will be released on December 24, 2025 [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Personal Credit**: The central bank issued a notice on the one - time credit repair policy. For personal overdue information from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, with a single - amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan, if the overdue debt is fully repaid by March 31, 2026, the information will not be displayed in the credit database [11] - **Toddler Care Service Legislation**: The draft of the Toddler Care Service Law was submitted for the first review. It is of great significance for promoting and standardizing the development of toddler care services and building a fertility - friendly society [11] - **Anti - Subsidy against the EU**: Since December 23, 2025, China has implemented temporary anti - subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU in the form of temporary anti - subsidy tax deposits, with the ad - valorem subsidy rate ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and the Middle East are continuously disturbing the crude oil market, causing oil prices to fluctuate. Different raw materials have varying impacts on downstream chemical products. The market has entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds, with extreme price differences among some varieties, and there is a possibility of reverse fluctuations due to capital disturbances. The inventories of three major liquefied chemical products (EB, BZ, and EG) have all increased on a month - on - month basis [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, including the US's intensified blockade of Venezuela, the key stage of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, and potential Israeli attacks on Iran. Coal inventories are high due to lower - than - expected seasonal demand. The different performances of raw materials have implications for downstream chemical products [2]. - After the main contracts shifted to the 05 contracts, the market entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds. Polyolefins are considered for short - selling, while PX is favored for long - buying. The inventories of EB, BZ, and EG have all increased, with BZ inventory increasing by 5% month - on - month, and BZ and EB port inventories at a five - year high, and EG inventory approaching the five - year median [3]. 2. Performance of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and other regions continue to disturb the market, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: Overseas refined oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the pressure of crude oil inventory is mainly reflected in floating storage. The supply - surplus situation persists. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term price fluctuations, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low [4][8]. - **Outlook**: The supply - surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations are unstable. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate near the annual low in the short term [8]. Bitumen - **Viewpoint**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again, and bitumen futures prices have risen. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The situation between the US and Venezuela has driven up bitumen futures prices. If there is a substantial supply disruption, bitumen futures prices will be strong; otherwise, they may fall after rising. The pricing of bitumen futures has returned to Shandong spot prices, and the high valuation of bitumen is being revised downward. Bitumen is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still great pressure on inventory accumulation [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of bitumen is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors have driven up the futures prices of high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to a rebound in high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces for high - sulfur fuel oil (Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Palestine - Israel conflict) are currently weak, and fuel oil demand is still weak [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Domestically, the pressure on refined oil supply is increasing, which may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in an increase in supply and a decline in demand. Overseas, unexpected maintenance and unstable operation of some refineries have led to an unexpected decline in supply and an increase in valuation [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The situation in coastal and inland areas is relatively stalemate, and methanol is expected to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The inland market is weak, with high freight rates and general downstream follow - up. Although Iranian imports are expected to decrease in the long term, coastal port inventories are still at a historical high, and the arrival volume may be high in the short term. The trading logic in coastal areas is unclear, and the unloading rhythm of arriving ships may be a key variable [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [30]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On December 22, 2025, the urea supply was affected by gas restrictions and maintenance, and the operating rate fell below 80%. However, due to the new production capacity put into operation throughout the year, the daily output was still above 190,000 tons, maintaining pressure on the market. On the demand side, there is still support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection, but the downstream's acceptance of the increased price is low, and the actual follow - up is cautious [31]. - **Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and may weaken. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories [31]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: There is still room for an increase in the load, and the spot circulation remains loose. - **Main Logic**: With the restart of some devices, the supply has increased again, and there are expectations of increased production from other devices. The overall spot circulation of ethylene glycol remains loose, and the inventory accumulation period is expected to last until February. The market sentiment needs time to recover, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [22][24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [24]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by sentiment, PX maintains a strong consolidation, and profits continue to expand. - **Main Logic**: The market is optimistic about the medium - and long - term pattern of PX, and bullish funds continue to bet. Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, and the resonance of cost and sentiment has led to the continued rise of PX and the expansion of PXN. Currently, the industrial chain profits are overly concentrated upstream, squeezing the cash flow of PTA and polyester. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts or early holidays in the polyester industry [13][14]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to consolidate strongly under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [300, 380] US dollars per ton. The positive spread logic of PX remains [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: With cost support, the outlook is positive, and the processing margin on the futures market has been significantly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX is still strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is still tight, and the export data in November was good, boosting market confidence. The BIS certification cancellation has a continuous positive impact, and it is expected that the export performance in December will still improve. PTA is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is less than in previous years. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly following the cost, and the processing margin will operate within a range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract at low prices and take profit at around 5100. A positive spread strategy can be adopted for TA05 - 09 [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost support has strengthened, but the cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are rising, providing cost support for polyester short - fiber. However, the downstream's willingness to accept high prices is low, resulting in poor sales of polyester short - fiber. The cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed due to the off - season expectation [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing margin has increased. The position of going long on TA and shorting PF should be closed for profit [26]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories have mostly raised their prices. The trading volume in the polyester bottle - chip market is acceptable. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing margin has increased [27]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance supports PL to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer is stable, with only a few prices slightly adjusted downward. The downstream buying is cautious, and there is no significant change in trading. In the short term, the profit of powder is under pressure, and the decline in the operating rate has a negative impact [35]. - **Outlook**: PL is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of maintenance supports PP to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The profit of PDH is under short - term pressure, and the valuation support of gas - based refineries has increased, with a strong expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect the short - term price of oil, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is still great downward pressure in the next quarter. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The current trading of maintenance is mainly focused on the expectation for January 2026, and the actual supply pressure is still large, with high inventory [34]. - **Outlook**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The support of maintenance is limited, and plastic fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and geopolitical factors affect the short - term price. There is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is great downward pressure in the next quarter. The fundamental support of plastic itself is still limited, with limited pressure on the profits of oil, coal, and ethane production, and a weaker expectation of supply reduction compared to PP. The upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the price. The overall demand for plastic is entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the short - term increase in downstream trading volume is questionable [33]. - **Outlook**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [33]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: New export transactions and a strong aromatic atmosphere have led to the intraday rise of styrene. - **Main Logic**: Recently, styrene has been fluctuating weakly. The downstream ABS has shown negative feedback, with some enterprises reducing their loads. The liquidity of styrene has increased, and the basis and profit have weakened. In the short term, the support comes from the external pure benzene, while the upper limit is restricted by the pure benzene inventory pressure and the shift of styrene to inventory accumulation [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Styrene is about to shift to inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in reducing inventory and still faces great pressure. The upper limit is obvious, and export transactions will stimulate short - term rebounds [21]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and the futures market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, the supply - demand situation of PVC has improved marginally due to overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic marginal enterprise production cuts, but the over - supply expectation cannot be reversed. The domestic production may remain stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weak, the export orders are good this week, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [37]. - **Outlook**: The de - stocking driven by production cuts will probably limit the rebound space of PVC. The over - supply situation cannot be reversed in the medium term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda may fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, although the short - term de - stocking in Shandong has occurred, if the alumina production is reduced and the upstream maintains a high operating rate, the supply - demand of caustic soda will still be in excess. The profit of marginal alumina devices is poor, the inventory of Weiquan is high, the demand for caustic soda will be boosted by the new alumina project in Guangxi in Q1 2026, the non - aluminum operating rate is weak, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is low [39][40]. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the upstream in Shandong is de - stocking. However, the supply - demand is under pressure in the long term, and the market may wait and see [40]. 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX decreased by 86 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread of PP decreased by 15 yuan per ton [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different changes. For example, the basis of bitumen decreased by 76 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt was 54,100 lots [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads have also changed. For example, the 1 - month spread of PP - 3MA decreased by 104 yuan per ton, and the 1 - month spread of TA - EG increased by 157 yuan per ton [45]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the given text for in - depth analysis of this part. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of the commodity index all showed different degrees of increase on December 22, 2025. The comprehensive index increased by 1.10%, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.34%, and the industrial products index increased by 0.79%. The energy index increased by 2.32% on the day, 1.47% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.08% in the past month, and decreased by 10.72% since the beginning of the year [284][285].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is generally positive. The lower - than - expected US CPI in November boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December has a positive tone, which is expected to improve domestic consumption. The raw material supply is tight and may spread to the smelting end, with a risk of supply contraction. The current supply - demand of basic metals is relatively loose, but the future is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, while high prices restrain consumption. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disturbances are expected to drive up the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The long - term processing fee for copper ore is settled, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. SMM reports that the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. The CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on December 22 was at a discount to the contract. As of December 22, the copper inventory increased. The LME plans to set and implement position limits on key and related contracts from July 6, 2026. Macro factors and supply constraints support copper prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit the upside. The outlook is for copper prices to be oscillatingly strong [9][10][11]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The over - supply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. On December 22, the spot prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts decreased. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The cost support is weak, and the warehouse receipts digestion faces pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [11][12][13]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the average price of SMM AOO increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars changed. In November, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. The "aluminum for copper" standard work has been launched, and the aluminum ingot premium for Japan in Q1 2026 has increased. The macro - environment is positive, the supply is tight in the long - term, and the short - term high prices suppress demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [14][15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the prices of related products were stable or changed slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production, and the import of scrap aluminum in October increased. The cost support is strong, but the supply may be reduced due to policies, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - and medium - term [16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The inventory trends at home and abroad are different, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the spot prices in different regions were at premiums to the contract. As of December 22, the zinc inventory increased. In November, China's zinc concentrate imports increased. The macro - environment is positive, the short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [19][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined, and the rebound space of lead prices is limited. On December 22, the prices of related products changed slightly, and the inventory decreased. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption, and the operating rate of some enterprises has weakened. The supply may increase as the maintenance of smelters ends, and the demand is weakening. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the nickel ore RKAB, and nickel prices have rebounded. On December 22, the LME and domestic nickel inventories changed. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula and reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target. The current supply is still under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. If the RKAB plan is implemented, the surplus expectation will decline. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the rebound of nickel prices, the stainless - steel futures price has recovered. On December 22, the price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel ore production target. The cost has some support, the production may decline in December, and the inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [26][27]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns and low inventory levels make tin prices oscillatingly strong. On December 22, the warehouse receipts and positions of tin increased, and the spot price rose. The supply from Myanmar has recovered, but the supply in Indonesia may be restricted in Q1 2026, and African supply is limited. The demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and industry development. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong [27][28]. Group 4: Market Monitoring - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the CITICS Futures commodity index increased by 1.10%, 1.34%, and 0.79% respectively. The PPI commodity index increased by 0.63%. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.85%. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date growth rates of the non - ferrous metal index were +0.85%, +2.42%, +5.61%, and +12.36% respectively [152][154].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, and new energy metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, polysilicon and lithium carbonate will alternately lead the rise of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price level. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but demand expectations are also growing, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing. The annual supply - demand inflection point for lithium carbonate may occur earlier. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **View**: Supply - demand remains weak, and silicon prices show an oscillatory trend. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory". [6] - **Information Analysis**: As of December 22, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of November 2025, the monthly output of domestic industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. In November, industrial silicon exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year. [6] - **Main Logic**: In terms of the fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon decreased in December. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon was weak, and the demand boost from aluminum alloy was limited. Although the industry inventory decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but the downstream demand weakened simultaneously, and the inventory continued to accumulate in December, with the fundamentals remaining weak. [6] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, but the coal price has recovered, and market sentiment fluctuates. It is believed that the price of industrial silicon will show an oscillatory trend. [7] Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 22, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock was stable week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE remained unchanged. In November, China's polysilicon exports decreased by 18% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 62% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. The GZFE added new registered brands and adjusted the minimum order quantity for some polysilicon futures contracts. [7][8] - **Main Logic**: With the establishment of the polysilicon platform company, the expectation of state - reserve purchase has heated up again, and prices continue to be highly volatile. In the supply side, production in the southwest region decreased during the dry season, and the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. In the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high but overdrew the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. Although the fundamentals are weak, the anti - involution policy expectation provides strong price support at the bottom. [10] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts polysilicon prices. With the establishment of the platform company, market sentiment has improved, and the price of polysilicon may show an oscillatory and slightly bullish trend in the short term. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Demand remains strong, and lithium prices continue to rise. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [11] - **Information Analysis**: On December 22, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.68%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, as did the average price of spodumene concentrate index. The number of warehouse receipts increased. The GZFE made adjustments to lithium carbonate futures delivery warehouses, and the total warehouse capacity increased by 7,000 tons. [11][12] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand expectation is also strong. Market trading focuses on the resumption time of Jiaxiawo Mine and the off - season demand. The resumption expectation has been postponed, which is a major positive factor. There are differences in the market's expectation of January demand, and the social inventory decline has slowed down. In the short term, there are few negative factors, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, attention should be paid to the possible emotional fluctuations caused by the increase in warehouse capacity. [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly bullish. [12] 2.行情监测 - Not provided with specific content in the text. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: - The commodity 20 index was 2,634.42, up 1.34%. - The industrial product index was 2,226.50, up 0.79%. - The PPI commodity index was 1,379.81, up 0.63%. [54] - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 22, 2025, the index was 493.12, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 6.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.57%. [55]