Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 41st week of 2025, presenting the issuance and net financing scale of different types of bonds and their progress [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1. General Bond Issuance - This week, the new issuance of general bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 9.9 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 0 billion [8]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0% [10]. - In October, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 0 billion [4]. 3.2. Special Bond Issuance - This week, the new issuance of special bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 16 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 20.1 billion [4]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6% [4]. - In October, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 0 billion [5]. 3.3. Local Bond Issuance - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [13]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -24.6 billion, a decrease of 87.8 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -19.8 billion [14]. 3.4. Treasury Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 184.4 billion, an increase of 184.4 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -38.4 billion [17]. - As of October 12, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 83.4% [19]. 3.5. Government Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 159.8 billion, an increase of 96.6 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -58.2 billion [21]. - As of October 12, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 83.5% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is weak, with most products expected to experience weak fluctuations. Specific ratings for each product include: oil (weakly fluctuating), asphalt (weakly fluctuating), high - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), low - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), PX (fluctuating), PTA (fluctuating), pure benzene (weakly fluctuating), styrene (weakly fluctuating), MEG (weakly fluctuating), short - fiber (fluctuating), polyester bottle - chip (fluctuating), methanol (weakly fluctuating in the short - term), urea (weakly fluctuating), LLDPE (weakly fluctuating), PP (weakly fluctuating), PL (weakly fluctuating), PVC (fluctuating), and caustic soda (fluctuating) [10][11][14][17][18][19][22][24][28][29][33][34][35][37][38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price is in a stable and fluctuating state, and the Brent oil price remains within the 65 - 70 range. The SC oil price has fallen to the lower edge of the range due to high domestic crude oil inventories. The market is focused on the Israel - Hamas agreement, but there are doubts about its final implementation. The coking coal price rebounded on the first trading day after the holiday, and there is a possibility of price stabilization for coal [1]. - On the evening of October 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on "regulating price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market order," which may slightly boost the sentiment of the domestic sluggish commodity market. For chemical products, there has been no effective production reduction. The supply side has not effectively responded to losses, and the chemical market pattern remains weak [2]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be weakly fluctuating, with oil as the anchor. If geopolitical disturbances gradually weaken, the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - **Oil**: The US Treasury's sanctions on entities related to Iranian oil have not significantly affected oil prices. Global supply is in an increasing phase dominated by high - growth OPEC+ production, with a surplus pressure. After the weakening of geopolitical support, oil prices are expected to return to a downward channel [10]. - **Asphalt**: OPEC+ production increase, a reduction in Saudi's export premium to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in the geopolitical premium, putting pressure on asphalt futures prices. The supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [11]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The sudden agreement in the Israel - Hamas conflict has led to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. Although there is an improvement in demand expectations, the impact of geopolitical upgrades on prices is expected to be short - term [11]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It follows the weak trend of oil, facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [13]. - **PX**: Although there are some device outages, the overall supply is still relatively abundant. With the poor performance of polyester and textile clothing demand, PX profits are expected to be under pressure [14]. - **PTA**: The cost has short - term support, and the supply - demand situation in October is relatively stable. However, the market has a pessimistic expectation of future supply - demand loosening. If there is no large - scale production reduction, processing fees will remain under pressure [16]. - **Pure benzene**: The downstream pre - holiday inventory build - up has strengthened the market structure, but the supply is expected to exceed demand until the end of the year, with significant inventory accumulation pressure in October [17]. - **Styrene**: Although the supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance, the high inventory in the upstream and downstream is difficult to reduce, and the cost - side pure benzene inventory is also difficult to clear, dragging down the styrene price [18]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is gradually being realized, and the inventory accumulation inflection point is approaching. Although the inventory accumulation amplitude is limited, domestic production is expected to increase, and polyester demand may weaken [22]. - **Short - fiber**: The upstream cost fluctuates, and the short - fiber price follows slightly. Although the terminal demand has marginally improved, the procurement is still cautious, and the overall driving force is limited [23]. - **Polyester bottle - chip**: The price follows the upstream cost fluctuations. Under the joint production reduction of bottle - chip factories, the processing fees are relatively stable. The expansion space of processing fees is limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction plans [26]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the weakening of olefins and inventory accumulation, the futures price has declined. However, considering the potential disturbances from Iran, there may be some room for rebound after a continuous decline [28]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there is a supply - demand mismatch, agricultural demand is weakening, and there is no short - term positive news. The market is expected to be weakly fluctuating [29]. - **LLDPE**: It follows the weak trend of the energy and chemical market. The supply - demand situation is not optimistic, and the profit support is limited. The price is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [33]. - **PP**: Affected by the decline of PG, the price has fallen. The supply - side pressure remains, and the transmission of raw material price decline is obvious [35]. - **PL**: Affected by the decline of PG, the futures price has fallen, but the spot price has some support, and it is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [35]. - **PVC**: There are still fundamental pressures, and the cost change is expected to be small. It is expected to be cautiously weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [37]. - **Caustic soda**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory build - up and upstream start - up changes [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.59 with a change of 0.02, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 16 [40]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product are different. For example, the basis of asphalt is 115 with a change of 39, and the warehouse receipt is 44430 [41]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spread data also vary. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 125 with a change of 7, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 426 with a change of 39 [43]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although there are sub - sections for various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data summaries are provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity market have different performance. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.66% to 2541.25, the industrial products index increased by 0.87% to 2238.71, and the energy index decreased by 1.98% on October 9th, 2025 [287][289].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points. The bond market closed higher across the board. For stock index futures, continue to over - allocate IM long positions. For stock index options, maintain a high - level hedging strategy. For treasury bond futures, the market is in a cautious and volatile state, and long - end arbitrage opportunities are recommended [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points. On the first trading day after the holiday, the equity market was generally positive. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, semiconductors, and power generation equipment led the gains, and the ChiNext and STAR Market styles continued to outperform. The CSI 500 Index was strong, related to its physical attributes. The trading volume was close to 2.7 trillion, indicating high market activity. After the holiday, continue to focus on growth sectors. The strategy is to continue to over - allocate IM long positions [1][7] Stock Index Options - Options continue with a high - level hedging strategy. The equity index rose strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.32% in a single day. On October 9, the implied volatility of various option varieties decreased by about 4% on average. Although the short - volatility strategy performed well, it is necessary to use option purchases to hedge positions. The trading volume of call and put options of CSI 1000 index options increased, indicating market adoption of the option - purchase hedging strategy. Overall, the option strategy recommends high - level defense [2][7] Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.15%, 0.07%, 0.02%, and 0.46% respectively. Although the central bank had a net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of 1.45 trillion, it carried out a 1.1 - trillion 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase, and the overnight funding became looser. In the short term, factors such as fund fee reform and the stock - bond seesaw may continue to affect the bond market. The bond market is in a cautious and volatile state, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - end arbitrage opportunities [3][7][8] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data released this week include China's September official manufacturing PMI (49.8, with a previous value of 49.4 and a forecast of 50.1), the US September ISM manufacturing PMI (49.1, with a previous value of 48.7), and China's September foreign exchange reserves ($33386.58 billion, with a previous value of $33221.54 billion) [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Domestic Macro: During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourist trips reached 888 million, an increase of 123 million compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. Domestic tourism spending was 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan. The average daily sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year [10] - Artificial Intelligence: Ant Group released the trillion - parameter general language model Ling - 1T, which achieved SOTA performance in multiple complex reasoning benchmarks and leading results in many high - difficulty benchmark tests [11] - Overseas Macro: The European Automobile Manufacturers Association said that the EU Commission's reduction of steel import quotas would push up prices and exacerbate inflation, and the complexity of applying new origin rules in the automotive industry should be recognized [11] - Market Access: The Ministry of Commerce included foreign entities such as anti - drone technology companies and TechInsights and their branches in the unreliable entity list, banning relevant import and export, investment, and cooperation activities [12] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Not provided in detail in the given content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the precious metals market saw partial profit - taking, with prices slightly declining, and silver officially breaking through its historical high. The U.S. government remains in a shutdown, and the two - party stalemate continues. The situation of "no news is good news" persists during the data vacuum period. The election of Takako Koshikawa as the LDP president may increase geopolitical risks in the Asia - Pacific region and boost the willingness to allocate gold [1][3]. - In the fourth quarter, the upward logic of precious metals is generally smooth. The beginning of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are short - term drivers, while debt over - issuance and de - globalization leading to the contraction of the U.S. dollar's credit are the long - term bullish foundation for gold, and silver benefits synchronously [3]. - Currently, the price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level, and the prices are not as extremely crowded as in April. Attention should be paid to the progress of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, as well as price volatility changes [1][3]. - The weekly outlook for spot London gold is in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver, it is in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - New York Fed President John Williams supports further interest - rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market. He believes the U.S. economy is not on the verge of recession, and inflation prospects are less dire than earlier this year. Labor market weakness will help curb inflation [2]. - The U.S. National Tax Service will furlough over 34,000 employees due to the government shutdown, accounting for about 46% of the department's total staff. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson is discussing reforms to the Affordable Care Act subsidies [2]. - Trump said he is conducting transactions with Japan and South Korea. The Vietnamese government said its negotiation representatives will go to the U.S. in October and November to continue trade negotiations [2]. Price Logic - After the holiday, partial profit - taking in the precious metals market led to a slight price decline, and silver broke through its historical high. The U.S. government shutdown continues, and the two - party stalemate persists. The situation of "no news is good news" continues during the data vacuum period. The election of Takako Koshikawa as the LDP president may increase geopolitical risks in the Asia - Pacific region and boost the willingness to allocate gold [1][3]. - In the fourth quarter, the upward logic of precious metals is smooth. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are short - term drivers, while debt over - issuance and de - globalization leading to the contraction of the U.S. dollar's credit are the long - term bullish foundation for gold, and silver benefits synchronously [3]. - Currently, the price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased but remains relatively low, and the prices are not as extremely crowded as in April. Attention should be paid to the progress of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, which may cause disturbances in interest - rate cut expectations. Also, changes in price volatility may increase the risk of price adjustments [1][3]. - The weekly outlook for spot London gold is in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver, it is in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [3]. Market Index - As of October 9, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodity index has related data. The commodity index is 2249.67, up 1.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2541.25, up 1.66%; the industrial products index is 2238.71, up 0.87%; the PPI commodity index is 1342.89, up 2.05% [43]. - The precious metals index on October 9, 2025, has a daily increase of 3.88%, a 5 - day increase of 7.08%, a 1 - month increase of 12.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 44.98% [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The industries covered in the report are classified as follows according to the outlook provided: - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil are expected to be "oscillating with an upward bias" [1][8]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to "oscillate" [9]. - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [10]. - **Pigs**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to "oscillate" [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to "oscillate within a range" [16]. - **Cotton**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [17]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [19]. - **Pulp**: Expected to be "oscillating with a downward bias" [20]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to "oscillate" [21]. - **Logs**: Expected to be "oscillating with an upward bias" [23]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil led the rise in the oil market yesterday. The market should pay attention to the MPOB report. The main bullish factors include the expected positive impact of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, increased consumption of palm oil by biodiesel in Indonesia, palm oil gradually entering the production - reduction season, continued reduction of domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield [1][8]. - **Protein Meal**: After the holiday, the spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated at a low level. Domestically, in the short term, the price is supported by post - holiday restocking, while in the long term, supply is expected to be sufficient. In the international market, US soybeans are facing both bullish and bearish factors and are likely to continue oscillating [9]. - **Corn and Starch**: With the arrival of the new grain selling pressure, the price is oscillating with a downward bias. In the short term, there may be a slight rebound due to tight inventory, but in the long term, the market is expected to be "short - term bearish and long - term bullish" [10][11]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, it is the off - season for consumption, and pig prices are falling. In the short term, the pig market is under supply pressure, while in the long term, if capacity reduction is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday performance of downstream industries. In the short term, there is support, but the long - term expectation is weak, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the medium term, there is strong bottom support, but there is no continuous upward driving force [16]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure and weakening. In the fourth quarter, with the increase in supply, the price is under downward pressure. The market should pay attention to whether the new - year production increase is less than expected and changes in macro - trade negotiations [17]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure is marginally alleviated, and sugar prices are rebounding. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, while in the long term, the price is in a bearish pattern [19]. - **Pulp**: During the holiday, there were no significant changes, and pulp continued its weak pattern. The market is constrained by high supply and weak demand [20]. - **Offset Paper**: Tendering has limited boosting effect, and offset paper is oscillating with a downward bias. The market supply pressure is increasing, and the price may decline slightly after the holiday [21]. - **Logs**: Supported by the increase in spot prices, logs are performing strongly. In the short term, the price is supported, while in the long term, there may be seasonal inventory accumulation after the peak season [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil led the rise yesterday. Due to factors such as the rebound of US soybeans and soybean oil, Indonesia's planned biodiesel B50 policy in 2026, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory in September, the domestic oil market was boosted. The market should pay attention to the MPOB report [1][8]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, US soybeans are facing both bullish and bearish factors and are expected to oscillate. Domestically, in the short term, the price is supported by post - holiday restocking, while in the long term, supply is expected to be sufficient [9]. - **Corn and Starch**: New grain selling pressure is emerging, and the price is oscillating with a downward bias. In the short term, inventory is tight, and there may be a slight rebound, while in the long term, the market is "short - term bearish and long - term bullish" [10][11]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, consumption decreased, and pig prices fell. In the short term, the market is under supply pressure, while in the long term, if capacity reduction is implemented, supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday performance of downstream industries. In the short term, there is support, but the long - term expectation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the medium term, there is strong bottom support, but there is no continuous upward driving force [16]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure and weakening. In the fourth quarter, with the increase in supply, the price is under downward pressure. The market should pay attention to production and trade negotiation changes [17]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure is marginally alleviated, and sugar prices are rebounding. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate, while in the long term, it is in a bearish pattern [19]. - **Pulp**: During the holiday, there were no significant changes, and pulp continued its weak pattern. The market is constrained by high supply and weak demand [20]. - **Offset Paper**: Tendering has limited boosting effect, and offset paper is oscillating with a downward bias. Supply pressure is increasing, and the price may decline slightly after the holiday [21]. - **Logs**: Supported by the increase in spot prices, logs are performing strongly. In the short term, the price is supported, while in the long term, there may be seasonal inventory accumulation after the peak season [23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Oils and Fats, Protein Meal, Corn, Starch, Pigs, Cotton, Sugar, Pulp, Offset Paper, Logs**: The report lists relevant data for these varieties, such as prices, production, and inventory, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [25][45][58]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides a rating standard for the outlook of varieties, including definitions of "upward - biased", "oscillating with an upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a downward bias", "downward - biased", and explanations of the time period and standard deviation [180]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2541.25, up 1.66%; the industrial products index is 2238.71, up 0.87% [182]. - **Agricultural Products Index**: On October 9, 2025, the index was 937.50, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 1.42%, a 1 - month decline of 3.48%, and a year - to - date decline of 1.80% [184].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the poor industry demand and the maintenance of high molten iron levels continue to lead the prices of black building materials sector varieties to oscillate. Considering the limited changes in fundamentals and the increasing domestic and foreign macro and policy expectations, attention should be paid to the subsequent internal and external policy disturbances [6]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Logic**: Cost is strong, and there are still positive signals from the policy end, leading to a slight increase in the futures market. The spot market transactions are average, with some post - holiday demand release. The blast furnace profit is average, and the molten iron output remains high. The electric furnace profit has slightly improved, and the production resumption enthusiasm of electric furnace steel mills has increased. The inventory of the five major steel products has accumulated significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed during the holiday is faster than in previous years, putting pressure on the fundamentals [7]. - **Outlook**: The rapid inventory accumulation of steel during the holiday has put pressure on the fundamentals. However, the molten iron output is at a relatively high level, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost support is strong. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the futures market will have strong support below in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased, with overall stable supply. The average daily output of molten iron has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mill inventory has decreased significantly during the holiday, and some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday, leading to a significant recovery in spot transactions. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure is not prominent [8]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is supported at a high level, and the supply is generally stable. There are still macro - expectations disturbances before important meetings, but the general performance of the building materials peak season demand restricts the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - **Logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the daily consumption has decreased. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the electric furnace profit is poor. The steel enterprises mainly consume inventory during the holiday, and the inventory has decreased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, and the price has slightly declined on the first day after the holiday. The scrap steel's own fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [9]. Coke - **Logic**: On the futures side, funds flowed out before the holiday, and the market rebounded after the holiday. On the spot side, the quotation has decreased. The loss of coke enterprises has slightly improved, but the high raw coal price restricts the overall start - up of coke enterprises, and the supply has slightly decreased. The blast furnace maintenance of steel mills has increased, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills have completed restocking and are purchasing on demand, and the upstream inventory is still at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term after the holiday, the molten iron output will remain high, providing rigid demand support. The coking profit has slightly improved but still restricts the supply increase. The fundamentals are healthy in the short term. With the strengthening of macro - positive expectations, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. Coking Coal - **Logic**: On the futures side, there were many positive news on the first day after the holiday, and the market sentiment was warm. On the spot side, the price remained unchanged. The supply of some domestic mines decreased during the holiday, and the import of Mongolian coal was restricted during the holiday but is expected to increase in the future. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production, and the upstream inventory is at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and the import of Mongolian coal is expected to reach a high level, with a strong expectation of supply increase. However, the supply increase will be restricted by factors such as "anti - involution" and safety supervision. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production in the short term. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [12]. Glass - **Logic**: The national average price has increased slightly. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The "Stability and Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" will optimize the supply of float glass in the long term. The demand is in the peak season, but the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability. There are concerns about supply disturbances in the Shahe area, and the inventory has accumulated significantly during the National Day. If the supply disturbance expectation does not materialize, the price may be under pressure again [12]. - **Outlook**: A large amount of inventory has accumulated during the National Day. After the holiday, manufacturers try to raise prices to boost restocking sentiment. If the post - holiday production and sales are good and the spot price increase is implemented, the futures market will have room for a certain rebound. Otherwise, the fundamentals may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The price of heavy soda ash has decreased. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is long - term suppression. The output has decreased due to some manufacturers' sudden maintenance. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has increased. The market transaction was weak during the National Day, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected that the upstream inventory will increase this week, and the industry is still in the stage of capacity clearance at the bottom of the cycle, with the price expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - **Logic**: After the holiday, the black sector was strong, but the manganese silicon futures market oscillated due to weak fundamentals. The spot market sentiment was cautious, and the price remained stable. The manganese ore market inquiry was cold, and the port inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The manganese silicon manufacturers' profit is poor, and there is a sentiment of price - pressing procurement. The steel mills' demand for manganese silicon is still resilient, but the market supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the future inventory clearance will be more difficult [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season demand support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. After the peak season, the price center of manganese silicon still has downward space. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [17]. Ferrosilicon - **Logic**: The prices of black chain varieties were strong, but the ferrosilicon futures market was weak due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas in September. The spot market transaction atmosphere was average, and the manufacturers' quotations were gradually loosening. The ferrosilicon production remains at a high level, and the market supply pressure is gradually increasing. The demand from steel mills is still supported, but the demand for magnesium ingots is weak, suppressing the price [18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the peak - season demand and cost support the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, the price still has downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/10/10 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MOFCOM decided to control export of rare earth-related technologies. Futur ...

Report Overview - Report Title: BHP and Chinese Miners' Negotiation Stalemate Has Limited Short-Term Impact [3] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Report Author: CITIC Futures Research Institute, Black Building Materials Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short-term impact on BHP's shipping volume is expected to be small, remaining at a level comparable to the same period last year, and the news has a limited impact on the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of the negotiation between the two sides [6]. Summary by Directory Negotiation Situation - Bloomberg reported that due to the negotiation deadlock, the consultation between BHP and Chinese iron ore traders may last for several months or even extend to early 2026. As BHP has sold most of the iron ore for November and December delivery, the quantity shipped to China has hardly been affected. The impact of China's suspension of purchases may gradually appear when BHP starts selling ore for January 2026 delivery [4]. Fundamental Situation - In 2024, BHP's total shipping volume (calculated at 100% equity) was approximately 290 million tons, of which about 250 million tons were shipped to China, accounting for about 86% of its total shipping volume and 19% of the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports. As of October 3, 2025, BHP had shipped 189 million tons to China, a year-on-year decrease of 3.15 million tons [5]. Future Outlook - If the Bloomberg report is true, the short-term impact on BHP's shipping volume is expected to be small, remaining at a level comparable to the same period last year, and the news has a limited impact on the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of the negotiation between the two sides [6].