1信期货有限公司 2025年11月18日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 一、氧化铝 价格72美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 11月18日现货价格指数为2844元/吨,环比-1元/吨; (3) 11月18日期货库存255462吨,环比+1808吨; (4) 11月18日进口盈亏为-1元/吨,环比-6元/吨; 二、电解铝 lite 3 - 2024 -- 2023 2025 350000 300000 200000 100000 -50000 01/02 02/02 03/10 04/16 05/26 07/01 08/05 09/09 10/17 11/16 12/16 三、铝合金 (2) 11月18日生铝精废价差为1701元/吨,环比-53元/吨;型材铝精废 价差2454元/吨,环比-52元/吨; 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 元/吨 600 550 500 450 01/02 01/27 02/21 03/17 04/11 05/07 06/01 06/26 07/21 08/15 09/09 10/11 11/05 11/30 12/25 图表 2:几内亚铝土矿价格 美元/吨 2025 == 2024 · ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The price will fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as supply pressure, positive signals from cracking prices, and unconfirmed geopolitical concerns [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The current over - supply situation and continuous inventory accumulation are difficult to change, and the price is under pressure [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The price is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, demand, and cracking spread, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the strengthening of refined oil. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, although it faces some negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [4][11]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is in a low - level fluctuating state, and it is expected to have a short - term narrow - range fluctuation [4][25]. - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price rises slightly. In the short term, it is expected to rise slightly and generally fluctuate and consolidate [4][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The circulation of goods in the market increases, and the basis remains weak. The price is expected to maintain a low - level range fluctuation, and the EG01 - 05 spread is still recommended to be shorted at high levels [4][20]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the cost support is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for further feedback from the market [4][12]. - **PTA**: The emotional fermentation has ended, and the fundamental variables are limited. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily left for observation [4][13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price difference between high and low prices in the market is gradually widening, and the factory's sales are difficult. There is still room for profit compression, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [4][21]. - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it follows the cost passively. The absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support below [4][23]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has strengthened in the short term, and the PL fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][28]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][27]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance support is limited, and the plastic fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][26]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the narrative of blending for oil, styrene fluctuates after a rebound. The price is affected by factors such as the blending for oil and the inventory of pure benzene, and the market is in a state of game between expectation and reality [4][17]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of anti - dumping duties boosts the market sentiment again. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the short - term market sentiment is improved [4][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda fluctuates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [4][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the supply situation in the market [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread data between different varieties are given, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties and provide reference for arbitrage trading [36]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific data analysis is not carried out in the text, it is expected to provide more in - depth monitoring and analysis of the basis and spread of various chemical products [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, PPI commodity index, and sector index of the commodity are provided. The energy index shows a decline of 0.61% on November 18, 2025, a decline of 2.25% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.31% in the past month, and a decline of 6.87% since the beginning of the year [275][276][277].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, precious metal prices rebounded slightly after a decline, with the adjustment range narrowing. The high levels of initial and continuing jobless claims in the US, along with the government's long - term shutdown, increased the downward risk in the labor market. US stocks remained weak, and US bonds strengthened slightly. Gold and silver may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains. The core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, such as excessive debt issuance and de - globalization, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit, and silver will benefit from spill - over effects. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, an increase from the previous week. The data for several weeks were either revised or not released due to the government shutdown [2]. - According to the Cleveland Fed, the number of large - scale layoff notices issued by US enterprises in October reached one of the highest levels in history, with about 39,006 people receiving advance notice [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report showed that in the four weeks ending November 1, private - sector employers in the US reduced an average of 2,500 jobs per week [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - In the short term, due to high jobless claims and the government shutdown, precious metals may fluctuate. In the long term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against the US dollar's credit risk, and silver will benefit from spill - over effects and the global economic recovery. The expected range for spot London gold this week is [3,800, 4,200] US dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver is [46, 53] US dollars per ounce [3]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2,234.87, down 0.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2,534.70, down 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2,208.90, down 0.88% [43]. 3.4 Precious Metals Index - On November 18, 2025, the precious metals index was 3,263.58, with a daily decline of 1.39%, a decline of 2.97% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.62% in the past month, and an increase of 47.51% since the beginning of the year [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

股指期权方面，备兑为主，短线买权防御。昨日权益指数震荡走弱， 沪指单日收跌0.81%。期权方面，各个品种成交额再度提升12.15%。连续 几日的流动性上行，叠加情绪指标持仓量PCR指标大幅走弱，以及隐含波 动率平均提涨0.69%。综合来看，市场对冲避险情绪凸显。策略方面，我 们仍建议续持备兑策略防御为主。同时，如果认为当前权益市场在年末资 金偏紧、海外降息预期回落等背景影响下，短期有高位回落可能，可以适 当补充看跌买权进行对冲保护。 国债期货方面，税期因素有所扰动，但影响或有限。昨日国债期货小 幅上涨，截止收盘， T、TF、TS、TL主力合约分别上涨0.03%、0.03%、0. 01%、0.06%。昨日国债期货T主力合约上午走势较为震荡，午后有所走 强。近期来看，税期因素或对资金面以及债市情绪形成一定扰动，资金利 率小幅上行，昨日DR001和DR007分别录得1.53%和1.52%。不过在央行对资 金面的呵护下，整体影响或不大。央行昨日在公开市场操作中虽然净投放 规模有所下降，但是整体仍呈现净投放状态。另外昨日股市表现仍偏弱， 上证指数继续有所回调，风险偏好回落以及股债跷跷板可能也对债市情绪 继续有一定带动。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including sugar, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, pulp, offset paper, and logs, providing short - and medium - term outlooks and trading strategies for each [1][6][7][9][11][14][16][17][18][21]. - Overall, different products face various market situations, with some showing short - term support but medium - to - long - term downward pressure, while others are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and cost, resulting in complex market trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is testing the support at 5400 yuan/ton again [1][17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to see increased sugar production in Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, leading to a surplus in the international sugar market and downward pressure on prices. In the short - term, Brazil's export volume is decreasing, and the domestic market is supported by tightened import policies and expected reduced imports [1][17]. - **Outlook**: Medium - to - long - term is weak with a downward trend; short - term price range is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton, and the operation idea is to short on rallies [2][17]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: The cost of domestic soybean oil has increased, and it is oscillating strongly; palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating [6]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the market is waiting for US economic data, and there are differences in the Fed's monetary policy. From an industrial perspective, the expectation of US soybean exports is fluctuating, and the planting progress in South America is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high, and the de - stocking speed of soybean oil is slow. The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the consumption of palm oil in Indonesia's biodiesel has increased. The supply of rapeseed in China is currently tight but is expected to increase later [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is oscillating strongly, palm oil and rapeseed oil are oscillating. The market is affected by multiple long and short factors [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **View**: China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and the internal and external market fluctuations have intensified [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the USDA has lowered US soybean exports, but China's procurement may return. US soybean crushing volume has reached a new high, and South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the import profit of soybeans has improved, but the January shipment is still at a loss. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean and rapeseed meals are oscillating. It is recommended to buy at low prices around 3000 - 3050 but not to chase the rise [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **View**: The spot price continues to rise, and the futures price has a slight correction [7]. - **Logic**: The supply of corn has decreased due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the demand has increased due to the tight inventory of feed - using enterprises in the sales area. The state - owned grain reserve rotation is ongoing, and the import auction has a high transaction rate. However, the new grain listing pressure has not been fully released [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.5 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs for slaughter is abundant, and the pig price is weak [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms has increased slightly, and the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow. In the medium - term, the number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase. In the long - term, the production capacity of sows is showing signs of reduction [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the near - term, the slaughter pressure at the end of the year is large; in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **View**: It continues to oscillate in a narrow range [11]. - **Logic**: Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, providing some support. However, demand has not changed significantly recently. If there is no strong expectation difference or macro - drive, the rubber price may face downward pressure [13]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend. Pay attention to widening the RU - NR spread [13]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains an oscillating trend [14]. - **Logic**: The futures price has rebounded recently but has not reversed. The main reason for the support is the relatively stable transaction of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the market sentiment is still cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are high. It is recommended to short on rallies before butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions [15]. 3.8 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price is adjusting downward [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA's November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the domestic new cotton production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weakening, and the supply is increasing in the fourth quarter. The price is in a correction stage [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract has a correction risk; in the long - term, the valuation is low and it is oscillating strongly [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The 01 contract funds continue to flow out, and the correction pressure persists [17]. - **Logic**: The main reason for the recent correction of the 01 contract is the continuous exit of long - side funds. There is an obvious position - shifting phenomenon, which accelerates the capital exit. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. The market is mainly driven by funds [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures are mainly in a wide - range oscillation [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Offset paper is following the decline of pulp [18]. - **Logic**: In November, the overall fundamentals are at the bottom - building stage. The price is affected by factors such as the paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream demand, and cost. In December, the market may be dragged down by the dealers' price - cutting for sales. In the first quarter of 2026, the market may enter a stage of narrow - range oscillation [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly following the pulp as the paper mills' price - increasing sentiment is high [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: It is oscillating in a narrow range and is at the bottom - building stage [21]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high in the long - term, and the demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026. The inventory is slowly decreasing in the short - term and is expected to increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no clear contradictions, and the spot price is under pressure. It is oscillating at a low level recently [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2234.87, down 0.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2534.70, down 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2208.90, down 0.88% [179]. - The agricultural product index on November 18, 2025, was 928.27, with a daily decline of 0.46%, a 5 - day decline of 0.79%, a 1 - month increase of 0.04%, and a decline of 2.77% since the beginning of the year [181].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 18, equity index futures fell while CGB futures rose slightly; most commodities declined, with the energy & chemicals remaining weak and J and JM leading the losses [2][10][12][13]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures are Iron Ore, Chinese Jujube, and Lithium Carbonate, while the top three decliners are Coking Coal, SCFIS(Europe), and Coke [11][12][13]. - TSR 20 rose by 0.5% on November 18, with supply - side factors including overseas seasonal output increase and domestic factors like停割and warehouse receipt changes, and demand showing no significant change [16][17][19]. - Coking Coal fell 3.9% on November 18, with fundamentals still providing strong support and expected to trade with fluctuation [24][26]. - Coke fell 2.9% on November 18, with supply - demand remaining tight in the short - term, cost support weakening, and prices expected to fluctuate alongside coking coal [29][31]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 18, equity index futures (IH fell by 0.23%, IF dropped by 0.41%) fell while CGB futures (TL rose by 0.06%) rose slightly; most commodities declined, with energy & chemicals weak and J and JM leading losses [10]. - In commodity futures, top gainers are Iron Ore (up 1.4% with - 2.1% month - on - month position change), Chinese Jujube (up 1.2% with - 0.8% month - on - month position change), and Lithium Carbonate (up 0.9% with - 14.0% month - on - month position change); top decliners are Coking Coal (down 3.9% with + 2.1% month - on - month position change), SCFIS(Europe) (down 2.9% with - 0.1% month - on - month position change), and Coke (down 2.9% with + 2.4% month - on - month position change) [11][12][13]. 1.1 Daily Raise - TSR 20 rose by 0.5% to 12,345 yuan/ton on November 18. Supply - side: overseas seasonal output increase is smooth, raw materials are firm, domestic停割in November and RU warehouse receipt deregistration and NR warehouse receipt increase have impacts. Demand - side: no significant change in the past two weeks, downstream purchasing sentiment is good after price decline, but lack of strong directional drivers. Market is range - bound, with rubber prices having bottom resilience but no one - sided trending market [16][17][19]. 1.2 Daily Drop - Coking Coal fell 3.9% to 1,159 yuan/ton on November 18. Futures pressure weakened sentiment, increasing online auction failure rates and causing some coal price corrections. Fundamentals haven't deteriorated significantly, and prices are expected to trade with fluctuation. Supply: main producing area mines' production rhythm is mostly stable, overall supply recovers slowly; import: Mongolian coal clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is high but prime coking coal at the port is tight. Demand: coke output drops month - on - month, mid - and downstream purchases slow after replenishment, but mines have many advance orders, and upstream mines have slight inventory accumulation with little overall pressure [24][26]. - Coke fell 2.9% to 1,649.5 yuan/ton on November 18. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, downstream steel mills may increase maintenance but significant production cuts are unlikely, so demand support remains. Short - term supply - demand is tight, inventory is decreasing, cost support has weakened, and futures are expected to fluctuate alongside coking coal. Supply: coking profits improve after four rounds of price hikes, and supply remains stable with relaxed environmental requirements in Henan. Demand: steel mills' profits shrink but willingness to cut production actively is low, molten iron output is high. Inventory: steel mills maintain strong purchasing momentum and upstream coking enterprises hold low inventories [29][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On November 17, the 4th China - Germany High - Level Financial & Economic Dialogue was co - chaired by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and German Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner. Both sides will strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination, enhance financial and economic cooperation, expand two - way market opening, and support the multilateral trading system [34]. - A Japanese Foreign Ministry official visited China from November 17. On the 18th, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asian Affairs Department Director - General met with him, and China made solemn representations to Japan [34]. 2.2 Industry News - The 4th China - Germany High - Level Financial & Economic Dialogue joint statement mentions that both sides support strengthening exchanges and cooperation in securities, futures and derivatives sectors, encourage cross - border investment and operation of qualified financial institutions, and promote exchanges between regulatory and self - regulatory organizations. They also note the signing of a cooperation MoU by industry associations [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current nickel supply and demand are generally loose, putting downward pressure on nickel prices, which are expected to remain weak. The overall improvement in the actual supply - demand fundamentals will gradually emerge in the second quarter of 2026. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to find support around 110,000 yuan, and the strategy is to short on rebounds and be cautious about short - selling [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 18, the futures price of the main Shanghai nickel contract dropped by more than 1.5%, and the decline in the last four trading days exceeded 2.7%. On November 17, the average price of SMM electrolytic nickel was 118,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous day. The current decline is due to overall supply - demand looseness and high LME nickel inventories, which have been above 260,000 tons since October 16 and are still increasing. Also, the official announcement of the total RKAB nickel ore quota in Indonesia in 2026 is expected between December and January 2020, and the nickel price will run weakly before that [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In October, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production was 139,900 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 14%. Nickel matte production was 22,600 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 31% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. MHP production was 40,700 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 33%. In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 17%. From January to October 2025, China's refined nickel production was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23% - Demand side: In October, the national stainless steel output was 4.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 6%. From January to October, China's stainless steel output was 28.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In October, Indonesia's stainless steel output was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to October, Indonesia's cumulative stainless steel output was 4.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In October, the ternary material output was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 32%. From January to October, the ternary material output was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% - Currently, supply still generally exceeds demand, LME nickel inventories have continuously increased to 257,604 tons, and Shanghai nickel weekly inventories have continuously increased to 35,828 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - The current nickel supply and demand are generally loose, causing nickel prices to run weakly. Although there are still fluctuations in the RKAB nickel quota and quantity, the official announcement of the quota is expected between December this year and January 2020. The market expects the total quota to decline, but the actual improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals will gradually appear in the second quarter of 2026. Looking forward, the Shanghai nickel price is expected to find support around 110,000 yuan, and the strategy is to short on rebounds and be cautious about short - selling [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different outlooks. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to rise, and some are expected to decline. For example, protein meal is expected to rise, while sugar is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [2][7][17]. - Multiple factors such as international supply and demand, domestic policies, weather conditions, and macro - economic situations affect the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic import policies all have an impact on the prices of soybeans and related products [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal - **View**: Overnight US soybeans fell, and double - meal reduced positions and made up for the decline. In the short term, it is expected that the futures and spot prices will rise; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the repair of crushing margins [2][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low. The USDA report lowered US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks. US soybean premiums are lower than South American soybeans, and there is no cost - effectiveness. Domestically, the import profit of Chinese soybeans has been repaired, but the import and crushing of the January shipment are still at a loss, and the ship - buying progress is slow. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is seasonally decreasing but still higher than the same period last year [2][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will fluctuate, and Dalian meal will fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy at around 3000 - 3050 and hold, without chasing high [3][7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market focuses on US economic data, and the Fed's internal differences in monetary policy have intensified. The USDA report is slightly bearish. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and exports have declined. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel has increased, and the inventory has remained low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: It continues to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, due to the cold weather, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. Although the supply of corn in Jilin has increased, the selling pressure in the Northeast has not been fully realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the State Grain Reserve continues, and the auction of imported corn has a high transaction rate [7][8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when it rebounds to around 2200 [8][9]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply pressure continues, and the pig price runs weakly [9]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow, which may lead to increased slaughter pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of live pigs to be slaughtered in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of breeding sows has begun to decline [9]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate weakly. The near - term contracts are under high - production - capacity pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage strategy [9][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It is waiting for a driving force and fluctuating within a range [11][12]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is changeable, and there is no obvious directional driving force in the fundamentals. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, which supports the price to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the near two weeks [12]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - fluctuating and highly elastic trend. In the short term, continue to pay attention to expanding the spread between RU and NR [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The disk has temporarily entered a shock - consolidation stage [14][15]. - **Logic**: It follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and then stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. After the price of butadiene fell to a low point, some downstream enterprises made up for the inventory, and the market stopped falling and consolidated [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are both large. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene appears, the disk is recommended to be shorted when the price is high [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: There is a callback risk in the short term [16][17]. - **Logic**: The USDA November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the expected production of cotton in the United States, China, and Brazil has increased. Domestically, the actual purchase volume of seed cotton has exceeded expectations, and the expected production of new cotton in Xinjiang has increased. The previous bullish factors have been digested, and the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract has a callback risk; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it will fluctuate strongly [17]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The rebound power is weak [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the sugar prices at home and abroad are under downward pressure. In the short term, the export volume of Brazil has decreased, and the domestic import policy is tightened, which provides some support for the domestic market [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - long term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, the operating range of sugar prices is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short when the price is high [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The futures fluctuate at a high level, and the long - dominant pattern remains unchanged [17][18]. - **Logic**: The bullish factors for the previous rise include the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the import cost of broad - leaf pulp, the expected good production and sales of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts for the 01 contract. The bearish factors include the low total demand for softwood pulp, the slow procurement of downstream enterprises, the disturbance of the warehouse - receipt problem, and the lack of strong growth in downstream and terminal consumption [18]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the main force is competing for the warehouse - receipt problem. The pulp futures will mainly fluctuate widely [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: Paper enterprises are supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling [19]. - **Logic**: In the short term, some paper enterprises still have the intention to support prices, but dealers' inventory is rational. The orders of downstream printing factories have not changed much, and the procurement of raw paper is mainly based on rigid demand. The upstream pulp price has increased slightly, which strengthens the cost support for double - glue paper, but the transmission is general [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - glue paper has been launched one after another, and paper factories are enthusiastic about raising prices. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the pulp [21]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals, and the logs maintain low - level fluctuations [23]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand will increase in December, and the long - term supply pressure still exists. The purchase intention of traders is suppressed, and the import rhythm depends on the port inventory and international costs. On the demand side, the demand in 2026 is expected to be weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs have no clear contradiction, the spot price is under pressure, and it will fluctuate at a low level recently [23]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 17, 2025**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is not provided in detail. The characteristic index shows that the CITIC Futures Commodity 20 Index is 2555.84, a decrease of 0.42%; the industrial product index is 2228.52, an increase of 0.56%. The agricultural product index is 932.55, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a 5 - day decline of 0.34%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.32% [181][182].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-18 12⽉降息概率延续⾛低，贵⾦属调整 周⼀贵⾦属价格延续调整，随着美联储发⾔继续转鹰，12⽉降息概率进⼀ 步⾛低，同时⽩银租赁利率掉头回落，现货紧张的情绪缓解，⾦银同步维 持调整格局。短期市场预计进⼊预期抢跑后的价格回归阶段，贵⾦属降波 调整持续，关注本周美国GDP及⾮农数据披露。 重点资讯： 1）随着美国政府"停摆"结束，各州正在重新启动"补充营养援助 计划"（SNAP）救济金的发放工作，但与此同时，"大而美"税收与 支出法案对SNAP体系的全面收紧也正式生效。国会预算办公室预计， 新规将使全美约30万人最终失去SNAP资格。 2）日本经济财政政策会议会议纪要显示，日本央行行长植田和男表 示，日本央行正在追求一个能确保平稳着陆的利率水平；潜在通胀率 仍低于目标水平，因此将维持宽松的货币政策立场；从以稳定方式实 现2%通胀目标的角度来看，长期维持过于宽松的货币政策存在风险。 3）美国11月纽约联储制造业指数为18.7，为2024年11月以来新高， 预期5.8，前值10.7；就业指数为6.6，前值6.2；新订单指数 ...