Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market has limited short - term bullish factors and is expected to trade in a narrow range. The price of the M2601 contract is likely to rise slightly, but the short - term upward strength is limited. It is recommended to cautiously go long on M2601 in the short term, and spot enterprises can price the 11 - 1 January basis at low points [8]. - The oil market has a mixed fundamental situation, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long - term, it is advisable to take a bullish view on oils. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to specific price ranges [82]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of October 18, the East China spot price was 2,870 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 + 0 yuan/ton, with the basis price up 20 yuan/ton. The US soybean price fluctuated around 1,000 cents/bushel, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by cost [8][10]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed due to the US government shutdown, with a downward - adjustment expectation for yield. In September, the US soybean planting area was raised to 81.1 million acres, the yield was lowered to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the ending stocks were raised to 300 million bushels. Brazil's sowing progress as of October 16 was 23.2%, higher than 17.83% in the same period last year. China's soybean arrivals in October were around 8.5 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume was over 9 million tons. In November, arrivals are expected to drop to around 8 million tons [8]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with a year - on - year increase of over 7%. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased year - on - year. It is expected that the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter will increase by over 5% year - on - year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills rose to 7.6576 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons [8]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped to 1,135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. The Brazilian and US soybean premium quotes are stable. The calculated domestic soybean meal cost is 2,990 yuan/ton for US Gulf soybeans and 3,160 yuan/ton for Brazilian soybeans [8]. 2. Oils 2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of October 17, the palm oil 01 contract dropped 130 yuan/ton to 9,308 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract dropped 46 yuan/ton to 8,256 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract dropped 200 yuan/ton to 9,861 yuan/ton. The spot prices of corresponding oils also decreased to varying degrees [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB September report showed an inventory build - up, which was bearish. In October, the production may continue to increase, but the export data was strong. The inventory build - up in Malaysia in October is expected to be limited, and then it will enter the traditional production - reduction season. In China, the palm oil inventory as of October 10 was 547,600 tons, and the arrivals in October - November are estimated to be 230,000 and 190,000 tons respectively [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The potential China - US summit and high domestic US soybean crushing volume in September boosted the US soybean price, but there are still many bearish factors. In China, the soybean arrivals in September were over 12 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory continued to build up to 1.2651 million tons as of the week of October 10. The supply gap after November has been narrowed [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The visit of the Canadian foreign minister to China led to an expectation of eased China - Canada relations and resumed rapeseed imports, which short - term suppressed the domestic rapeseed oil price. However, there is a supply gap before the large - scale import of Australian and Russian rapeseed oils in November [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. With market divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude and a downward - adjusted expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts, and under the support of interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Affected by factors such as the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the price of US gold continued to be strong, closing at $4,268 per ounce last Friday, up 5.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,400, and the lower support level is $4,100 [6]. - Similarly, due to the above factors and the tightness of London silver spot, the price of US silver continued to be strong, with a weekly increase of 6.5%, closing at $50.6 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - With the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. The market has a divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts is lower than before. Fed meeting minutes show that most officials think further policy relaxation this year may be appropriate. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. With the US economic data trending weaker, and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported under the interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content provided, only some data charts such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and bond yields are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The Eurozone October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7, down from the previous value of 26.1 [25]. - The US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 12.8, far lower than the expected 9 and the previous value of 23.2 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Governor Milan said that the resurgence of Sino - US trade tensions has brought new downward risks to the economic outlook, making it more important for the Fed to cut the target interest rate. He believes it is more urgent to take a more neutral policy stance [26]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 25,926.98 kg to 1,216,367.63 kg, while the SHFE inventory increased by 13,878 kg to 84,606 kg [13]. - For silver, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 404,484.72 kg to 15,845,968 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 248,958 kg to 920,103 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week [13]. - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday (October 20), at 20:30, the US September non - farm payrolls change seasonally adjusted and the US September unemployment rate will be released [37]. - On Friday (October 24), at 20:30, the US September CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins have weak price support and are expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6800 support level, and the PP main contract is also expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6500 support level. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - The cost of oil - based olefins production profit has recovered, while the profit of coal - based olefins production has declined. There is an expectation of increased supply, maintaining supply pressure. The recovery of PE agricultural film production is good, but overall order follow - up is limited, downstream restocking is insufficient, and there is short - term inventory accumulation pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 17, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,874 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32%. The average price of LDPE was 9,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71%, the average price of HDPE was 7,762.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,477.06 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%. The LLDPE South China basis was 603.06 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.64%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 33 yuan/ton (- 4) [8][10]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on October 17 was - 33 yuan/ton (- 4), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton (+ 34), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 57 yuan/ton (- 30) [15]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various PE products in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [16][17]. - **Cost**: This week, WTI crude oil closed at $57.25 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 per barrel from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $61.34 per barrel, a decrease of $0.75 per barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [19][61]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week [23]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 81.76%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 650,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.05%. The weekly maintenance loss was 106,800 tons, an increase of 19,200 tons from last week [28]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many companies have completed or are planning to start production, with a total planned production capacity of 6.13 million tons [31]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PE production lines are in maintenance, with uncertain restart times for some [32]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 42.89%, an increase of 3.28% from last week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 52.19%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the PE pipe operating rate was 32.00%, a decrease of 0.67% from last week [34]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33%, with a difference of 2.3% from the annual average level. The difference between low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 2.2%, with a difference of 4.5% from the annual average level [38]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic plastic inventory was 545,600 tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.02% [40]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,685 lots, a decrease of 22 lots from last week [44]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 17, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 171 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54% [48]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [50]. - **Basis and Month - spread**: On October 17, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,790 yuan/ton (- 1.26%). The PP basis was 239 yuan/ton (+ 84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton (- 12) [54]. - **Cost**: This week, WTI crude oil closed at $57.25 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 per barrel from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $61.34 per barrel, a decrease of $0.75 per barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [61]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 278.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 373.97 yuan/ton from last weekend, and the profit of coal - based PP was 3.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 248.35 yuan/ton from last weekend [65]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 78.22%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 801,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 69,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% [70]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are in maintenance, with uncertain restart times for some [74]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 51.85% (+ 0.09). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.26% (unchanged), the BOPP operating rate was 61.19% (+ 0.48%), the injection molding operating rate was 58.75% (+ 0.13%), and the pipe operating rate was 36.60% (- 0.33%) [76]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - $558.29 per ton, a decrease of $20.57 per ton from last week. The export profit was - $23.04 per ton, a decrease of $11.95 per ton from last week [81]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 678,700 tons (- 0.40%); the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increased by 6.09% month - on - month; the trader inventory decreased by 8.62% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 1.16% month - on - month [85]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On October 17, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,313 lots, an increase of 535 lots from last week [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs remains, and the futures price is running weakly. In the short term, there is a risk of the pig price rising and then falling back, and in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to strengthen in the second half of next year but with caution [4][46]. - The demand for eggs has seasonally weakened, and the egg price is running weakly. In the short term, the egg price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - It is the new corn crop listing period, and the futures price rebound is under pressure. In the short term, the price is expected to run weakly, and in the medium - to - long term, the cost has strong support [6][96]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Perspective Summary Live Pigs - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the national spot price was 11.1 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11,670 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 390 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price first declined and then rebounded, and the futures price was under pressure [4][46]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of fertile sows increased slowly from May to November 2024 and decreased slightly after December. The overall sow capacity is abundant, and the production performance has improved. The supply of live pigs will be high until the first half of next year. In October, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased, and the secondary fattening and pressure - barring sentiment increased [4][46]. - **Demand End**: The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume rebounded from a low level. The cold weather increased demand, but the macro - economy and policies limited the increase in demand. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the frozen - product storage rate increased [4][46]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary fertile sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for fattening increased. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattening pigs decreased. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1, and the state plans to purchase 50,000 tons of pork [4][46]. - **Weekly Summary**: In October, the supply increased, and the short - term pig price lacked the power to continue rising. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will remain high until the first half of next year, and the price in the second half of next year is expected to strengthen but with caution [4][46]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, moderately reduce short positions; for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, adopt a short - selling strategy; for the 07 and 09 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing [4][46]. Eggs - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 2,805 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was - 275 yuan/500 kg, up 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The egg price first declined, then stabilized, and then rebounded slightly, and the futures price first rose and then fell [5][76]. - **Supply End**: In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens remained high. The elimination of old hens increased, and the egg - laying rate recovered. In the medium - to - long term, the supply growth rate will slow down, but the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - **Demand End**: After the "Double Festival", the terminal demand weakened. The cold weather increased the storage period of eggs and stimulated the inventory demand [5][76]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the egg price will fluctuate at a low level. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, pay attention to the spot price; for the 12 and 01 contracts, try short - selling at high prices [5][76]. Corn - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the corn closing price at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,108 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 42 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday. The price of new corn in the Northeast decreased, and the futures price fluctuated widely at the bottom [6][96]. - **Supply End**: The old - crop inventory of traders is not high. After the festival, the supply of new corn in the Northeast increased, and the production situation is good, with expected high yields. The import of corn and other grains is at a low level [6][96]. - **Demand End**: The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives the increase in feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat and the listing of new crops limit the demand for corn. The deep - processing profit has turned positive, and the start - up rate has rebounded but is still at a low level [6][96]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the price of corn is under seasonal pressure. In the medium - to - long term, the cost has strong support, and the demand is moderately weak [6][96]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, adopt a short - selling strategy; pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6][96].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market is facing continuous inventory accumulation pressure. Although the supply has decreased due to an increase in maintenance devices, the support from compound fertilizer and other industrial demands has weakened. After a short - term improvement in production and sales, there are still pressures. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 1550 - 1650 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price fluctuated sideways, rebounding after hitting a new low. On October 17, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1541 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.72% [5][8]. - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On October 17, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 83) - (- 59) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 70) - (- 68) yuan/ton [5][10]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 80.23%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week, and the daily average urea output was 18.86 tons. Next week, maintenance devices in Anhui, Shaanxi and other places will gradually resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply will still be relatively sufficient [5][12]. - **Cost**: The demand - side support for anthracite lump coal was weaker, and the pit - mouth lump coal of coal enterprises in some areas was under significant pressure, with coal prices falling. As of October 16, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the price center dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the closing price on September 30 [5][16]. - **Demand**: - Agricultural demand: Nationwide autumn harvest and sowing have begun. Winter wheat has been sown and emerged in most parts of Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. In Gansu, nearly 80% of winter wheat has been sown, and in Shaanxi, over 10%. Rape has been sown in Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. In Chongqing, over 40% of rape has been sown, and in Hubei, over 30%. The average pre - sales of major urea production enterprises was 3.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and production and sales improved marginally [5][18][21]. - Industrial demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.91 tons, a decrease of 2.59 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved, entering a destocking trend [5][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 142.1 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 74 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6294, totaling 12.588 tons [5][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for glass contracts, waiting for a reversal before considering long positions [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day, the expectations of environmental protection and macro - policies in the glass industry cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. The planned ignition within the month and the rising inventory trend suppressed the spot price. The fundamentals are in a weak state without bright spots, and in the absence of macro - policy expectations, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: Last week, glass futures weakened significantly, with the weekly line closing as a medium - sized阴线. There were no changes in production lines last week. After the festival, the futures price declined, and the inventory of manufacturers continued to rise. The downstream procurement willingness was low, and the actual profit was still at a marginal level. The demand from middle - stream processors and downstream was weak, and the orders of processors did not improve. The supply of soda ash was in excess, and the price was under pressure. Technically, the short - side strength increased, and the moving averages were arranged downward, making left - hand trading difficult [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see, waiting for a reversal before considering long positions [3]. 02 Price Review - **Spot Price**: As of October 17, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,180 yuan/ton (- 50) in North China, 1,200 yuan/ton (- 20) in Central China, and 1,310 yuan/ton (- 30) in East China. The prices of some manufacturers also decreased, such as the prices of Shahe Great Wall and other manufacturers [9][10]. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan for the week [10]. 03 Basis and Spread - **Soda Ash - Glass Spread**: As of October 17, the futures price of soda ash was 1,209 yuan, and the futures price of glass was 1,095 yuan, with a spread of 114 yuan/ton (+ 81) [11]. - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 55 yuan/ton (+ 44). - **Contract Spread**: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 136 yuan/ton (- 9) [15]. 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,576 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit was - 266 yuan/ton (- 29). - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,185 yuan/ton (+ 21), and the gross profit was - 5 yuan/ton (- 71). - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,090 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit was 110 yuan/ton (- 19) [18]. 05 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 160,155 tons/day (+ 700), and there were 226 production lines in operation. There were also records of production line cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and conversions [20][22]. 06 Inventory - As of October 18, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,427.6 million weight boxes (+ 145.2). The inventories in North China, Central China, East China, and other regions also changed to varying degrees [25]. 07 Deep - Processing - **Production and Sales Rate**: On October 18, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 73% (- 26%). - **LOW - E Glass**: On October 15, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.7% (- 1.5%). - **Order Availability Days**: In mid - October, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (- 0.1) [28]. 08 Demand - New Energy - In September, China's automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 461,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 480,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.226 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 369,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 417,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.296 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 57.8% [40]. 09 Demand - Real Estate - In August, China's real - estate completion area was 26.5913 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the new - construction area was 45.9487 million square meters (- 20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million square meters (- 29%); and the commercial - housing sales area was 57.4415 million square meters (- 11%). From October 12 to October 16, the total commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.16 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 42%. In August, the real - estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% [47]. 10 Cost - Soda Ash (Price) - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers also remained unchanged [49][50][51]. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton (- 31). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of soda ash in Central China 09 was 91 yuan/ton (+ 31) [54]. 11 Cost - Soda Ash (Profit) - As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 130 yuan/ton (- 53). The cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda - ash enterprises was 1,330 yuan/ton (+ 33), with a gross profit of - 30 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the co - production method was 1,761 yuan/ton (+ 49) [56][58]. 12 Cost - Soda Ash (Inventory and Warehouse Receipts) - **Inventory**: Last week, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7005 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 40,700 tons), including 940,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons) and 759,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,700 tons). - **Warehouse Receipts**: At the end of last week, the number of soda - ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 10,773 (+ 3,720). - **Production**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 740,500 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 30,300 tons), including 415,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,200 tons) and 325,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons). The loss was 101,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 6,100 tons) [66][68][70]. 13 Cost - Soda Ash (Apparent Consumption) - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 395,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122,000 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 304,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons. - **Production and Sales Rate**: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27% [73].

黑色：暂时观望为宜 等待会议指引 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 核心观点：暂时观望为宜 等待会议指引 品种 行情观点 策略 板块综述：上周黑色板块走势非常分化，双焦价格上涨、钢材铁矿下跌，其中铁矿跌幅超过3%，品种间强弱关系为焦煤>焦炭>螺 纹>热卷>铁矿，一方面，关税阴云再起，大宗商品价格普跌，另一方面，钢材需求同比偏弱，铁矿到港增加致使港口库存大幅回升。 本周重点关注：（1）10月20-23日召开的二十届四中全会，涉及十五五规划；（2）钢材需求与去库情况；（3）关税政策变化，特朗 普在接受福克斯商业频道采访时承认，此前威胁对中国商品加征100%关税的措施"不可持续" 。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电与长流程成本以下，静态估值偏低；驱动方面，宏 | 回落做多，RB2601关注 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 观端，特朗普态度缓和、国内重磅会议召开在即，产业端，上周螺纹需求回升、产量略有下滑， | | | | ...

◆ 基本面分析 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比下降0.8美元/干吨至72.5美元/干吨。几内亚雨季结束，且氧化铝价格走弱，施压矿价下行。 氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降140万吨至9715万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加11.5万吨至401.7万吨。上半年新投产的氧化铝 产能进入稳产状态，但国产矿石供应问题和氧化铝价格低迷的影响下，部分内陆氧化铝企业检修或压产。电解铝运行产能周度环比 下降2万吨至4443.4万吨。山西朔州能源开始对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右。需求方面，国内铝下游加工 龙头企业开工率周度环比持稳于62.5%。旺季需求表现偏弱，叠加铝价高位，抑制了下游各加工板块开工上升。库存方面，铝锭 社会库存去化幅度较好。再生铸造铝合金方面，废铝流通偏紧、价格高企，而终端需求复苏不及预期，再生铝企业开工率下调。特 朗普关税或是为中美元首10月APEC会晤添加筹码，同时美联储10月降息时点即将来临，在此期间仍然建议逢低布局多单，在关 注关税进展和市场情绪。 ◆ 策略建议 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since 2020, the annualized hedging costs of stock index futures for the three major stock indices (SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500) have been more significantly affected by stock dividends, especially on the expiration date [2]. - The hedging costs of the far - season contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 stock index futures have long been stable around zero, and are slightly higher than the break - even point in most periods. The cost of the far - season contracts of CSI 500 stock index futures also fluctuates around zero, and before 2023, it was overall superior to the contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 in terms of return performance, showing relatively better cost - return characteristics [2]. - Based on the prediction for the fourth quarter of 2025, under the current market structure, preferentially allocating hedging tools represented by IC stock index futures may be a better choice for constructing market - neutral strategies [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Introduction - In the practice of the stock market - neutral strategy, although the hedging means of the strategy portfolio have been significantly enriched, stock index futures are still the core hedging tool for constructing market - neutral exposure. The basis structure of stock index futures directly determines the hedging cost of the neutral strategy and affects the final return performance [6]. - The basis of stock index futures can be decomposed into three core driving dimensions: the cost dimension from the time value of funds, the cash - flow dimension from index component stock dividends during the period, and the sentiment and expectation dimension reflecting the balance of market long - and short - side forces. The model is simplified to: Futures price - Index price = Corrected basis - Index dividends during the period [6]. 3.2. Dividend Situations of the Three Major Index Component Stocks 3.2.1. Dividend Point Indices of the Three Major Stock Indices - The dividend behavior of the three major index component stocks has significant seasonal characteristics, with dividend payments highly concentrated from April to September each year, peaking from June to August, especially from June to July [8][12]. - Compared with the market practice before 2020, in recent years, the phenomenon of the three major index component stocks paying dividends in the fourth quarter has increased. Since 2023, the A - share market dividend pattern has shown three new trends: year - end dividends, postponed dividend dates for some companies, and a deeper impact of dividend behavior on stock index and derivatives pricing [9][12]. 3.2.2. Dividend Yield Situations of the Three Major Stock Indices - The dividend yields of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices showed a "V - shaped" trend of first decreasing and then increasing from 2020 to 2024, which is related to the market adjustment from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. The dividend yield center of the CSI 500 index has shifted down compared with the level before 2020 [13][15]. - The average annual dividend yields of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, representing large - cap blue - chip stocks, are stable in the range of 2% - 3%, while the average dividend yield of the CSI 500 index, representing small - and medium - cap stocks, is relatively low. The dividends from June to July have a significant impact on futures pricing and basis structure [15][16]. 3.3. Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures 3.3.1. Estimation of Historical Data of Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures - A simplified model is used to estimate the dividend points of index component stocks and calculate the corrected basis. The annualized hedging costs of the near - month, far - month, near - season, and far - season contracts of the three major stock index futures in the past three years are calculated [18][20]. - The hedging costs of the far - season contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 stock index futures are long - term stable around zero and slightly higher than the break - even point, with low historical average hedging costs. Before 2023, the far - season contracts of CSI 500 stock index futures were overall superior to those of SSE 50 and CSI 300 in terms of return performance [20]. - The annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts may show significant peaks, indicating that the basis of stock index futures contracts may fluctuate extremely (deep premium or discount) when approaching the expiration date, which affects the actual cost of roll - over operations and strategy returns [26]. 3.3.2. Prediction of the Performance of Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures in the Fourth Quarter - From the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, the impact of dividends on the basis of stock index futures and hedging strategies has weakened. The hedging costs of the current IC and IF main contracts are generally positive, providing a favorable window for market - neutral strategies [27][28]. - Based on the closing data on September 22, 2025, the overall hedging costs of the three major stock index futures are relatively low. After considering dividends, most of the hedging costs of IC and IF contracts are positive, especially for IC near - month and far - month contracts. The hedging costs of IH contracts are relatively high and even negative after considering dividends [29][30]. - Currently, market - neutral strategies using IC or IF futures contracts for hedging have relative advantages. IC near - season main contracts have lower hedging costs, while IF far - season contracts have more obvious cost advantages. IH contracts have relatively low cost - performance. Therefore, preferentially allocating hedging tools represented by IC stock index futures may be a better choice [30][31].