长江期货粕类油脂月报 2025-10-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 02 油脂：短期跟随外盘补涨，中长期偏强对待 目 录 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止9月30日，华东现货报价2890元/吨，月度报价下跌80元/吨；M2601合约收盘至2928元/吨，月度下跌127元/吨；基差报价01-40 元/吨，基差价格上涨50元/吨。月度受中美贸易预期改善以及阿根廷大豆出口税取消影响，美豆承压下行；国内进口成本回落叠加供应预期改 善，价格大幅下跌，现货受制于供应压力，表现持续偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：USDA9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/英亩，结转库存上调至3亿蒲，供需边际转松，但美豆库销比 6.89%，供需收紧趋势不变。巴西今年进入播种阶段，受3-5价差利润丰厚，农民加快种植，截至9月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for glass futures. The main reasons include the weak support from the real - estate rush - to - build demand in October, the existence of positive expectations such as domestic macro news and environmental protection policies, and the technical indication of stronger bullish and weaker bearish forces. It is expected that the glass 2601 contract will face a pressure range of 1280 - 1300 and is likely to adjust in the near term but still be viewed optimistically. [2][98] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of September 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,230 yuan/ton (+70) in North China, 1,220 yuan/ton (+70) in Central China, and 1,320 yuan/ton (+90) in East China. [13] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, up 27 for the week. [13] - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 20 yuan/ton (+47). The 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton (+13). [18] - **Soda - Glass Spread**: As of September 30, the soda futures price was 1,255, the glass futures price was 1,210, and the spread between them was 45 yuan/ton (-45). [14] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern 2.1 Profit - **Gas - Made Process**: Cost was 1,577 yuan/ton (-1), and gross profit was - 257 yuan/ton (+91). - **Coal - Gas - Made Process**: Cost was 1,172 yuan/ton (-17), and gross profit was 58 yuan/ton (+87). - **Petroleum Coke - Made Process**: Cost was 1,091 yuan/ton (-1), and gross profit was 129 yuan/ton (+71). [23] 2.2 Supply - The pre - holiday daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (0), with 225 production lines in operation. [25] 2.3 Inventory - As of September 30, the inventory of 80 national glass sample manufacturers was 5,935.5 ten - thousand weight boxes (-155.3). Inventories in different regions showed various changes, with some decreasing and some increasing. [29][37] 2.4 Deep - Processing - On September 29, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 87% (+6%). On September 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (-1%). In mid - September, the order - available days for glass deep - processing were 10.5 days (+0.1). [38] 2.5 Demand (Automobile) - In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 and a year - on - year increase of 323,000. Sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 and a year - on - year increase of 404,000. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.101 million, with a penetration rate of 55.2%. [49] 2.6 Demand (Real Estate) - In August, China's real - estate completion area was 26.5913 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21%; new construction was 45.9487 million square meters (-20%); construction in progress was 43.7767 million square meters (-29%); and commercial housing sales were 57.4415 million square meters (-11%). From September 13 - 19, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.54 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. In August, real - estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20%. [57] 2.7 Import and Export - As of August, China's float glass imports were 473,600 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 61%), and exports were 2.21 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 120%). [59] 2.8 Cost End - Soda (Futures) - Last Friday, the soda 2601 contract closed at 1,255 yuan/ton (-18). The basis of soda in Central China for the 01 contract was 45 yuan/ton (+18). [69] 2.9 Cost End - Soda (Profit) - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda was 1,323 yuan/ton (+3), with a gross profit of - 37 yuan/ton (0); the cost of the co - production method was 1,767 yuan/ton (+28), with a gross profit of - 78 yuan/ton (-7). [71][73] 2.10 Cost End - Soda (Inventory) - Last week, domestic soda production was 776,900 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,200), including 430,100 tons of heavy soda (a month - on - month increase of 12,400) and 346,800 tons of light soda (a month - on - month increase of 18,800). The loss was 94,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 31,500). As of September 30, the national in - factory soda inventory was 1.5999 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 95,800). [81][87] 2.11 Cost End - Soda (Apparent Consumption) - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda was 513,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,700; the apparent demand for light soda was 367,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,700. The soda production - sales rate was 113.4%, a week - on - week increase of 7.78%. In August, the soda inventory days of sample float glass factories were 23.6 days. [94][95] 3. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to buy on dips. The main reasons include the pre - holiday glass futures price trend, stable supply, decreasing inventory, profit changes, demand characteristics, and the expected trend of soda. The glass 2601 contract is expected to adjust in the near term but still be viewed optimistically, with support at 1190 - 1200. [2][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is increasing, with expected growth of 8 - 12% year - on - year. The daily output is likely to reach a new high in Q4. Demand is diverse: agricultural demand awaits the spread of autumn fertilization; industrial demand shows narrow fluctuations; and export demand is expected to be released in October - November. The long - term price of urea is under pressure due to supply, but short - term pulse - type price increases may occur based on seasonal factors. Attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and potential positive spread opportunities [51]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Futures and Spot Price Review - **Futures Price**: In September, the urea futures price oscillated downward, closing at 1670 yuan/ton on September 30, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 4.19% from the beginning of the month [5]. - **Spot Price**: In the Henan market from January - September 2025, the price of small and medium - sized urea ranged from 1565 to 1962 yuan/ton. On September 23, it was 1609 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton or 6.07% from the beginning of the month. The main basis in major markets weakened, with Henan at - 49 yuan/ton, Shandong at - 58 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia at - 108 yuan/ton, and Shaanxi at - 118 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - **Capacity**: In Q3, four urea plants were put into production, with a total new capacity of about 520 tons in 2025 so far [11]. - **Production**: From January - September 2025, the total urea production was 5387.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 590.45 tons or 12.3%. The daily average output was higher than historical values, currently above 19 tons [14]. 3. Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - **Cost**: The anthracite market price first rose and then stabilized. As of September 30, the prices in Shanxi's Jincheng and Yangquan areas remained stable compared to the previous week [18]. - **Profit**: Due to rising coal prices and falling urea prices, the profit margin of urea was compressed, approaching the level of January - February [18]. 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - **Agricultural Production Conditions**: In 2024, the national grain sown area increased by 0.3%. With the improvement of agricultural conditions, more attention is paid to increasing grain yield per unit area. The demand for autumn fertilizers such as wheat base fertilizer is gradually being released [23]. - **Autumn Harvest Progress**: The autumn harvest is progressing steadily across the country, and the sowing of winter wheat in Gansu has begun [28]. 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - **Compound Fertilizer**: In Q3, the compound fertilizer operating rate first rose and then fell, currently at 37 - 39%. From January - September 2025, the output was 3849 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65 tons or 1.72%. The inventory is at a historical high but is showing a slight downward trend [33]. - **Melamine**: The consumption in the building materials and home furnishing market first increased and then decreased. The operating rate of melamine enterprises is 55.76%. From January - August 2025, the production was 103.58 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.29 tons, while exports increased by 2.5 tons [39]. - **Desulfurization and Denitrification**: From January - July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power generation increased by 0.76 billion kilowatts year - on - year. However, the total thermal power generation from January - August decreased by 0.51% year - on - year [44]. 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - **Export Volume**: From January - August 2025, China's total fertilizer exports were 2792 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. Urea exports were 144 tons, a year - on - year increase of 492.3%. The port inventory of urea is at a historical high [47]. 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - **Enterprise Inventory**: The urea enterprise inventory is at 119.5 tons, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and other regions [49]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts and Delivery**: There are currently 7211 registered warehouse receipts, totaling 14.422 tons of urea. The delivery volume of the 2509 contract increased by 6.408 tons year - on - year, with an average delivery price of 1643 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.71% year - on - year [49]. 8. Urea后市行情展望 - **Supply**: In Q4, urea supply is expected to maintain a growth rate of 8 - 12% year - on - year, with the daily output potentially reaching a new high [51]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand awaits the spread of autumn fertilization; industrial demand shows narrow fluctuations; and export demand is expected to be released in October - November [51]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, urea prices are under pressure due to supply. In the short - term, there may be pulse - type price increases. Attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and potential positive spread opportunities [51].

Report Title - "Industrial Macroeconomics Favors Copper Prices, Focus on Domestic Policies - October Copper Monthly Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, copper prices showed a strong trend with a monthly increase of 4.96%. As of September 30, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 83,350 yuan/ton. With potential domestic policies in October and current mine - end disturbances and macro - level positives, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly [5]. - Technically, the operating center of Shanghai copper has been continuously rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough trend [83]. - Considering macro and fundamental factors, copper prices are expected to remain high in October, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [89][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, Shanghai copper prices were strong. At the beginning of the month, the domestic macro - environment was warm, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut due to the cooling of the US employment market and in - line CPI boosted copper prices. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, copper prices slightly corrected. Supply disruptions from the Freeport Indonesia mining area and shortages in copper concentrates, along with reduced refined copper production in September and low inventories, supported copper prices [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomics - In the US, the August CPI showed a slight increase, and inflation pressure remained. The slowdown in employment led the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The September non - farm data has not been released, and the ADP employment data declined, indicating a weak employment market [9][12]. - The US manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service industry was stagnant. The US dollar index weakened due to the interest rate cut, and Treasury yields rose significantly [14]. Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, the CPI turned negative in August, and the PPI showed improvement. The social financing scale increased year - on - year, and local government special bond issuance was front - loaded in 2025 [16]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, and the overall economy maintained an expansion trend. Fixed - asset investment and industrial added - value showed certain growth [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine - end Supply - From January to July, the global copper concentrate production was stable, but the Freeport Indonesia mining area's accident disrupted supply, and the fourth - quarter production and sales of the Grasberg mine are expected to decline significantly. Domestic copper concentrate port inventories are at a low level [28]. Smelting End - The copper concentrate spot smelting fee (TC) remained at a historical low, and the processing fees for domestic and imported copper also decreased, indicating a tight supply of copper mines [30]. Refined Copper - In September, the production of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month due to smelter maintenance and supply shortages of anode plates. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product, remained strong, offsetting some losses at the smelting end [32]. Import and Export - In August, China's imports of refined copper, unforged copper and copper products, and copper ore all increased year - on - year. The import profit of copper was negative, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [35]. Scrap Copper - In August, scrap copper imports increased steadily. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened in September, leading to stockpiling by some holders [39]. Processing Links - In August, the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods showed slight changes. The overall downstream operating rate was weak, but the copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [41][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to August, investment in power projects was stable, and the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power increased significantly [49]. - The real estate market was still at the bottoming stage in August, with a decline in completion and new construction areas. Attention should be paid to potential real - estate policies after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [52][55]. - In August, the production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly, and policies continued to support high - level production and sales [56]. - In August, the production of household appliances showed resilience, and it is expected to maintain this trend under the influence of policies [58]. Inventory - As of October 3, SHFE copper inventories increased but remained at a low level. As of September 29, domestic social copper inventories increased month - on - month but were still near the annual low [62]. - As of September 30, COMEX copper inventories increased, LME copper inventories decreased slightly, and global visible copper inventories increased [67]. Premiums and Discounts - In September, the domestic spot premium of copper weakened, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed [73]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of September 30, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly, and the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased [75]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has been rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough [83]. 5. Outlook - Macroeconomic factors: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices. The US employment situation is not optimistic, and there may be more interest rate cuts. China's economic data has slowed down, and counter - cyclical policies are expected to be strengthened [89]. - Fundamental factors: The supply of copper mines has been disrupted, and although the supply pressure is not obvious due to imports, terminal consumption is weak. Inventories are at a low level, which supports copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain high in October [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically analyzes the basis structure of China's three major stock index futures and its impact on market-neutral strategies, finding that the basis can be deconstructed into three core dimensions: time value of funds, dividend cash flow, and market sentiment expectations. By introducing the concept of "corrected basis", it more accurately reflects the real hedging cost. A-share dividends show significant seasonal characteristics and three new trends since [year]. The dividend rates of the SSE and CSI 300 indices show a "V-shaped" trend, while the dividend rate center of the CSI 500 index has shifted downward. Currently, the costs of IC and IF contracts are generally positive, while the IH contract shows a negative value. It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of IC contracts and consider the far-quarter IF contracts, and be cautious with IH contracts [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Driving Factor Deconstruction and Theoretical Framework - The basis of stock index futures can be deconstructed into three core driving dimensions: the cost dimension from the time value of funds, the cash flow dimension from index component stocks' dividends, and the sentiment and expectation dimension reflecting the market's long-short power comparison. The "corrected basis" is defined by combining the time value and market sentiment expectations to simplify the analysis and focus on the core influencing factors of hedging costs [5]. II. Dividend Behavior Characteristics and Dividend Point Index Analysis - The dividend behavior of the three major index component stocks has significant seasonal characteristics, with dividends highly concentrated from [month] to [month], and [months] being the peak. Since [year], there have been three new trends in the A-share market's dividend pattern: the emergence of year-end dividends, the delay of some companies' traditional dividend dates, and the deepening of the impact of dividend behavior on stock index and derivative pricing [8]. III. Dividend Income Quantitative Calculation and Historical Trends - By comparing the yield differences between the total return index and the price index, the annual dividend income performance of the three major indices in the past five years is calculated. The SSE and CSI 300 indices show a "V-shaped" trend, while the dividend rate center of the CSI 500 index has shifted downward. The annualized dividend income of the SSE and CSI 300 indices is stable in the 2%-3% range, while that of the CSI 500 index is relatively low. The impact of dividends on futures pricing and basis structure during the concentrated dividend period cannot be ignored [10][11]. IV. Hedging Cost Time Series Analysis and Market Structure - A simplified model is used to estimate the dividend points of index component stocks and calculate the corrected basis. The far-quarter contracts of the SSE and CSI 300 stock index futures have long-term stable hedging costs around zero, and most of the time are slightly higher than the break-even point. The far-quarter contracts of the CSI 500 stock index futures also fluctuate around zero, and had better cost-benefit characteristics before [year]. The annualized hedging cost of near-month contracts has significant peaks, indicating extreme basis fluctuations near the contract expiration date, such as the abnormal peaks of over 150% observed in [year] [21]. V. Current Hedging Cost Comparison and Strategy Recommendations - From the fourth quarter of [year] to the beginning of [year], the impact of dividends on the stock index futures basis and hedging strategies has weakened. Currently, the hedging costs of IC and IF main contracts are generally positive, providing a favorable window for market-neutral strategies. IC and IF contracts have relatively low hedging costs, while IH contracts have relatively high costs. It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of IC contracts and consider the far-quarter IF contracts, and be cautious with IH contracts [22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "liquidity-driven bull" market continues, with growth stocks outperforming. In Q3, the A-share market showed a pattern of rising and then fluctuating. Looking ahead to Q4, the core support logic for the market's upward movement remains unchanged. If there are no unexpected negative factors, the market still has room to expand upwards after the phased adjustment. The two core driving forces are the continuation of the loose liquidity environment and the continuous support from the policy side [3][61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Economy - **CPI**: Monthly CPI was flat year-on-year, mainly dragged down by the food component, while the core CPI continued to rise year-on-year. The prices of industrial consumer goods and services were stronger than seasonal trends, driving the monthly CPI to rise month-on-month [13]. - **PPI**: Monthly PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline remaining the same. The anti-involution policy has limited impact on price improvement, highlighting the need for more demand-side policy support [14]. - **Export**: Monthly exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year and decreased by 1.0% month-on-month. The "rush to export" effect was an important factor for the acceleration of exports. Exports to the EU and ASEAN provided main support [16]. - **Consumption and Real Estate**: The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales declined, and the real estate market continued to weaken. The real estate demand still needs to be boosted, and the prices of second-hand and new houses are diverging [18]. - **Manufacturing**: The monthly manufacturing PMI rose by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, staying in the expansion range for two consecutive months. There was structural differentiation in sub - indicators, and the cost pressure on mid - and downstream enterprises remained [20]. - **Monetary Policy**: The subsequent monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" tone, focusing more on the use of structural tools. There may be a small interest rate cut in Q4, and the possibility of the central bank resuming treasury bond trading operations within the year has increased [23]. Market Review - **A-share Performance**: At the beginning of the month, the A-share market had a slight correction, and the risk appetite of investors fluctuated. Since the middle of the month, the main indexes showed different trends. The market capitalization was active, and the margin trading balance reached a record high [29]. - **Industry Performance**: As of the end of the month, among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, the power equipment industry led the market with a 21.17% increase, and more than 60% of the industries recorded declines, showing obvious industry differentiation [30]. - **Market Style**: Growth-style indexes led the rise, and mid - cap stocks performed particularly well. The market showed a preference for growth sectors [32]. - **Liquidity**: During a certain period, the average daily trading volume of the A-share market increased month-on-month, and the newly established partial - stock fund shares also increased, indicating active market liquidity [38]. - **Market Sentiment**: The trading enthusiasm of the A-share market remained high, and the risk appetite gradually recovered in the middle of the month. The main funds were concentrated in high - growth sectors, and the margin trading balance continued to rise [41][42]. Private Equity Strategy - **Basis Analysis**: Monthly basis fluctuations were significant, with the first half showing convergence and the second half widening, which affected neutral strategies [47]. - **Performance of Private Equity Sub - strategies**: In a certain month, all private equity strategies achieved positive returns. Long - only strategies and arbitrage strategies ranked among the top [50]. - **Index Enhancement Strategy**: The excess returns of different index enhancement strategies showed significant differentiation. Mid - and small - cap index enhancement strategies led the way in the long term, and different strategies responded differently to market environments [53][54]. - **Market Neutral Strategy**: The environment for the neutral strategy improved in a certain month. The average return of the market neutral strategy was 0.5%, and about 83.87% of the products achieved positive returns [59]. Future Outlook The A-share market in Q3 showed a pattern of rising and then fluctuating. In Q4, if there are no unexpected negative factors, the market still has room to expand upwards, supported by the loose liquidity environment and policy support [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October, steel prices are expected to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on rebar RB2601 around 3000. The signal requires continuous inventory reduction of steel products or the emergence of macro - positive news. The decline space of finished products is limited due to low valuation, while raw materials have relatively high valuation and greater downward pressure [3][57]. Summary by Directory 01 Review: Futures Oscillated, Finished Products Weaker than Raw Materials - **Black - Spot**: In September, black spot prices showed a differentiated trend. Finished products had a reverse N - shaped trend with little change in price month - on - month. Among raw materials, coke prices fell, coking coal rose significantly, scrap steel was stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore first rose and then fell [8]. - **Black - Futures**: In September, black futures prices first fell, then rebounded, and then fell again. Finished products were weaker than raw materials. Rebar and hot - rolled coil closed down month - on - month, with hot - rolled coil having a larger decline. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed. Among raw materials, iron ore and coking coal prices fell by about 1%, and coke prices declined slightly [11]. - **Futures Market**: In September, precious metal prices rose significantly, while most other commodities prices fell [14]. 02 Outlook: Concerns about October Demand, Fundamentals Still Under Pressure - **Overseas Macro**: On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, officially starting a new round of interest - rate cuts. On September 29, Trump announced tariffs on imported softwood logs, lumber, cabinets, etc. The EU plans to impose 25% - 50% tariffs on Chinese steel and related products in the coming weeks [19]. - **Domestic Economy**: From January to August 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0%, manufacturing investment by 5.1%, and real estate development investment falling by 12.9%. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The total value of goods imports and exports was 29.5696 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with exports growing by 6.9% and imports falling by 1.2% [22]. - **Demand - Infrastructure**: From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.1%. The national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 1.4%, and the expenditure increased by 30%. As of the 38th week (9/15 - 9/21), the cumulative net financing of national debt + new local bond issuance was 9.7 trillion, with a progress of 81.9%, exceeding the same period last year. Infrastructure investment growth has been negative for two consecutive months [23]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, housing construction area decreased by 9.3%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.5%, commercial housing sales area decreased by 4.7%, and housing completion area decreased by 17% [26]. - **Demand - Manufacturing**: From January to August 2025, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3%, and in July it was - 0.3%, contracting for two consecutive months. In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [33]. - **Demand - Import and Export**: From January to August 2025, China exported 77.49 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and imported 3.98 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The net steel export was 73.51 million tons, an increase of 7.56 million tons or 11.5%. Steel billet exports were 9.24 million tons, an increase of 6.88 million tons or 292% [37]. - **Supply**: From January to August 2025, China's pig iron output was 579.07 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; crude steel output was 671.81 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; rebar output was 128.68 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In August, rebar output was 15.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [38][43]. - **Profit**: The immediate profits of long - and short - process rebar steel mills declined. According to Mysteel research, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills decreased slowly, and the latest data was 58.01%, still at a high level in recent years. The long - process profit per ton of steel was 139 yuan, and the short - process profit per ton of steel at flat - rate electricity was - 60 yuan [46][47]. - **Supply - Demand Deduction**: The "Golden September" for steel was lackluster, and there are concerns about the "Silver October". It is expected that steel demand in October will hardly improve significantly. Steel mills may need to cut production to smoothly reduce inventory. Once the hot metal output declines, the supply - demand of raw materials will turn loose [50][52]. 03 Strategy: Prices Weak First and Then Strong, Wait for Opportunities to Go Long - **Futures Valuation**: As prices declined at the end of September, rebar futures prices were lower than the valley - rate electricity cost of electric arc furnaces and the long - process cost, with a relatively low static valuation [54]. - **Strategy**: In September, black prices showed a reverse N - shaped trend and closed down month - on - month. In October, steel demand is expected to be difficult to improve significantly. Steel mills may need to cut production to reduce inventory. Once the hot metal output declines, the supply - demand of raw materials will turn loose. Due to low valuation, the decline space of finished products is limited, while raw materials have relatively high valuation and greater downward pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around the low point in early September. It is expected that prices will be weak first and then strong in October. Focus on opportunities to go long on rebar RB2601 around 3000, with signals including continuous inventory reduction of steel products or the emergence of macro - positive news [56][57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are advised to hold a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is for buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for buying on dips; Aluminum is for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is for waiting or shorting on rallies; Tin and gold are for buying on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][15][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are for sideways movement; Polyolefins are for wide - range oscillations; Soda ash's 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][20][22][25][29] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are for a bearish outlook; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are for sideways movement [1][32][34] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are for shorting on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for range oscillations; Oils are for a slight bottom - building rebound [1][37][40][43] Core Views - The A - share market is expected to continue its upward trend in October driven by policies and performance. The "economic weak recovery + loose liquidity + policy dividends" combination limits the market's downside risk in the medium term [5] - The return of the configuration power determines whether the long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates can stabilize in the bond market [5] - The supply and demand of various commodities are affected by factors such as production, consumption, inventory, and policies, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In September, the A - share market showed an upward trend, with technology growth stocks being particularly active. In October, the market is expected to continue rising driven by policies and performance, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market fluctuated greatly before the holiday. The return of the configuration power determines the stability of long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates, and it is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: During the National Day holiday, some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production stoppages, and the import of Mongolian coal is expected to increase after the holiday. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, but the second - round increase failed. It is in a sideways state [7] - **Rebar**: During the holiday, steel prices were stable or slightly weak. The EU's steel import restrictions and Trump's tariff measures are negative news, but the impact is controllable. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract in October [7][8] - **Glass**: Before the holiday, the glass futures price first fell and then rose. The spot price increase of major glass manufacturers drove the market. The inventory decreased, and it is recommended to buy on dips, with the 2601 contract having a pressure range of 1280 - 1300 and a support range of 1190 - 1200 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has a long - term impact on copper prices, which are expected to be high - level volatile. In the short term, pay attention to changes in domestic and foreign inventories [11] - **Aluminum**: Alumina supply is relatively loose, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing steadily. Demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [12] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price of nickel iron has limited upside, and stainless steel prices are weak. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [17] - **Tin**: The closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia has tightened the supply. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [18] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as the delay of non - farm data and the risk of the US government shutdown, the prices are expected to continue the strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions and build new long positions on pullbacks [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level of profit, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be in a short - term sideways state, with the 01 contract paying attention to the range of 4700 - 5000 [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro outlook is positive in the long term, the supply inventory is high, and the demand is increasing marginally. It is expected to be in a sideways state, with the 01 contract paying attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand situation are weak, and it is expected to be in a weak sideways state, paying attention to the range of 6700 - 7100 [25] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. After the holiday, the demand is expected to drive the price to repair. Pay attention to the support at 15500 [25] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of the 01 contract at 1600 - 1630 and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand of the main downstream is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to be supported in the short term, paying attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 [27] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is relieved, the downstream demand has increased, but it is still weak compared with previous years. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within the range, and the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating [28] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is abundant, the demand is flat, and the 01 contract is recommended for a short - selling strategy [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the short - term market may stabilize, but the long - term pressure is still large, maintaining a bearish outlook in the medium term [32] - **PTA**: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA accumulates inventory. It is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation, paying attention to the range of 4500 - 4750 [32][34] - **Apples**: Affected by continuous rain, the supply of red apples is delayed, and the current market reference is limited. It is expected to be in a sideways state [34] - **Jujubes**: During the National Day holiday, the market was flat, and the new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested. It is expected to be in a sideways state [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the demand is limited, and the pig price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply before next May is expected to increase, and the price is not optimistic [37] - **Eggs**: The egg price was weak during the holiday. The supply growth has slowed down, but the pressure still exists. In the short - term, the decline may be limited by replenishment demand, and in the long - term, the price is under pressure [40] - **Corn**: The new - season corn is on the market, and the price is under pressure. The demand is weakly stable. It is expected to be weakly operating in the short - term and gradually recover in the long - term [40] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure in October. Pay attention to the support performance of the M2601 contract at 2900 - 2930 [42] - **Oils**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to rise slightly following the external market. The positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference can be continued to be concerned [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Futures market conditions during the 2025 National Day holiday varied across different sectors. Some commodities showed price increases due to factors like supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, while others faced downward pressure from factors such as supply - demand imbalances and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4][9] - Different commodities have different risk levels and corresponding operation strategies based on their specific fundamentals, including factors like supply, demand, inventory, and policy expectations [4][5][6] Summary by Category Financial Futures Index Futures - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The US government shutdown, delayed non - farm data, and changes in global political situations affected the market. Domestic holiday travel and movie consumption showed certain trends [4] - **Operation Strategy**: Focus on IF, IC, IM boosted by the 14th Five - Year Plan [4] Treasury Bonds - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The 10 - year treasury bond rate oscillated around 1.8%, with limited capital gain space. Short - end coupon strategies were relatively stable, but there were risks of increased capital fluctuations in the fourth quarter [5] - **Operation Strategy**: Control duration, prioritize dumbbell - shaped allocation, defend at the short - end, and wait for higher odds for long - end trading [5] Precious Metals Gold - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Delayed non - farm data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, and the US government shutdown risk drove up the risk - aversion sentiment. There were differences in the market's expectation of the year - end interest rate cut, and the US economic data showed a downward trend [6] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [6] Silver - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, and there was still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair during the interest rate cut process [7][8] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and be cautious about opening new positions [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by mine accidents and domestic smelter overhauls. Terminal consumption was weak but had potential for improvement. Inventories were at a low level, and domestic policies might be strengthened [9] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips [9] Aluminum - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there was room for domestic LPR adjustment. Alumina supply was generally loose, while electrolytic aluminum supply was stable with limited growth. Demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased [11] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [12] Nickel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Indonesia adjusted the RKAB cycle, which brought uncertainty to the nickel ore supply. Nickel remained in an oversupply situation, and the downstream stainless - steel market was weak [13] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or hold short positions moderately on rallies [13] Tin - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tightened due to the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry was recovering, and inventories were decreasing [15] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions moderately on dips [14][15] Black Building Materials Steel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: During the holiday, steel billet prices were stable, and iron ore futures rose slightly. The current situation was weak in the industry but strong in the macro - aspect, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase after the holiday [16] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the support around 3000 for RB2601 [16] Iron Ore - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability was at a relatively high level, and short - term negative feedback was unlikely. The key was whether steel demand could support the high iron - making water output [18] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading [18] Glass - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment was boosted by news and price increases of some manufacturers. Supply was stable, demand was in the peak season, and inventories were decreasing [20] - **Operation Strategy**: Maintain the long strategy for the 01 contract, hold existing long positions, and open new long positions on dips, paying attention to the support at 1160 - 1200 [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production suspensions, and Mongolian coal imports were expected to increase after the holiday. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round failed [23] - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and pay attention to the new round of industrial inventory transfer after the holiday [23] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical disturbances did not have a substantial impact on supply. The "supply increase and demand decrease" situation persisted, and prices were under pressure during the holiday [25] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as weak and oscillating [25] PVC - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Cost was at a low - profit level, supply was high, and demand was affected by the real - estate market and export policies [27] - **Operation Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the text Caustic Soda - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation. Supply was affected by upstream inventory and liquid chlorine, and demand was increasing marginally [28] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as oscillating, and pay attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 for the 01 contract [28] Urea - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and inventory was accumulating. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers improved slightly [31] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [31] Methanol - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, the demand of the main downstream (methanol - to - olefins) was strong, and inventories were decreasing [33] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct range trading, and pay attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 for the 01 contract [33] Soda Ash - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and upstream faced inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday [35] - **Operation Strategy**: Without policy support, the market may weaken PTA - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: The market changed little during the holiday. After - holiday maintenance of some devices and slow recovery of downstream weaving affected the inventory situation. Cost - end oil prices declined [36] - **Operation Strategy**: The price may oscillate between 4500 - 4800, and producers should conduct hedging on rallies in the fourth quarter [36] Agricultural Products Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Cotton purchase prices were stable during the holiday. Due to the US government shutdown, US cotton data was suspended, and price fluctuations were small [39] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct selling hedging on rallies [39] Live Pigs - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Pig prices declined during the holiday due to oversupply. In the long - term, supply will increase before May next year, and prices will be under pressure [40] - **Operation Strategy**: The futures market is expected to open lower. Adopt a long - term short - selling strategy for 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts, and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and short on 03 [41] Corn - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: New - season corn prices declined due to concerns about quality and increased supply. Demand was weak in the short - term but had potential for recovery in the long - term [43] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on the futures market, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [43] Eggs - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were weak during the holiday. Supply growth slowed down, but there was still pressure. There was replenishment demand after the holiday, but prices were under pressure in the long - term [45] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold short positions for the 11 - month contract. Be cautious about short - selling the 12 and 01 contracts, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [46] Meal - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly during the holiday. Domestic soybean supply was expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and soybean meal inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to rise slightly in November [48] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips and reduce positions on rallies for M2601, and pay attention to the support at 2900 - 2930 [48] Oils - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly during the holiday. Malaysian palm oil exports were strong, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. Domestic oil inventories were high in the short - term [50] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips for 01 contracts of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread [50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, recommend buying on dips; hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds and maintain a wait - and - see approach [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range - trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Advise cautious trading before holidays for copper; suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend a wait - and - see approach or shorting on rallies for nickel; adopt a range - trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Expect PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol to trade sideways; anticipate wide - range fluctuations for polyolefins; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][22][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to trade sideways; anticipate narrow - range fluctuations for PTA; expect apples to trend slightly upwards and jujubes to trend slightly downwards [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Recommend shorting on rallies for pigs and eggs; expect wide - range fluctuations for corn; anticipate range - bound oscillations for soybean meal; expect oils to trend slightly upwards [1][38][45] Core Views - The overall futures market presents a complex situation with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors. Positive factors such as monetary policy easing, industry growth, and technological breakthroughs support the stock index market, while uncertainties in factors like macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade impact other sectors [1][5][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: With the support of positive factors such as moderately loose monetary policy, stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry, and breakthroughs in the solid - state battery field, the market was active on Monday. The A - share market has been in a sideways trend since September, showing a technology - driven structural market. In the medium term, factors like Fed rate cuts, improved Sino - US relations, and the prosperity of emerging sectors are expected to drive the market upwards. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields rose on Monday, and the curve steepened. The spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds widened. The central bank emphasized policy implementation in the third - quarter meeting minutes, and there is uncertainty about the implementation of incremental monetary policies in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see approach [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the procurement rhythm has accelerated. It is expected to trade sideways [7] - **Rebar**: On Monday, rebar futures prices were weak. The current valuation is low, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the demand in October. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. Spot prices increased, and inventories decreased. The demand for real - estate construction in October provides weak support, and there are positive expectations from domestic macro - news and environmental policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Grasberg mine accident has led to a long - term increase in the copper price center. In the short term, the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand has entered the peak season, and inventories have decreased. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price of nickel iron has limited upside, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are recovering. It is recommended to trade within a range [17] - **Gold and Silver**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased, and precious metals are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade within a range [17][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may decline, and the overall supply - demand situation is still weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The upstream inventory has increased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment and export conditions [23] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade weakly within a range [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply is expected to increase, and the market trading is light before the holiday. It is expected to trade sideways [27] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory has accumulated. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and arbitrage opportunities [28] - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand from the main downstream industry has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be supported in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has increased, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade within a range, and the LP spread is expected to widen [30] - **Soda Ash**: The price has been driven up by glass, and the inventory has decreased. The output of Yuanxing's second - phase project is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an arbitrage strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the current spot market is firm, but there is pressure on future prices. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the international oil price has risen. The cost and supply - demand relationship are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [34][35] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to trend slightly upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as terminal market transactions and weather [36] - **Jujubes**: The growth of jujubes in Xinjiang shows differences, and the market is currently quiet. It is expected to rebound after a decline [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply is expected to increase in the short and medium terms. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term egg price is under pressure, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and environmental policies [40][41] - **Corn**: The supply of new crops is expected to ease the tight supply situation of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to the listing rhythm of new crops [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips [44][45] - **Oils**: The negative impact of the Argentine tariff event has ended. The palm oil inventory is expected to slow down its accumulation, and there are supply gaps in domestic rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47][50]