1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5][6] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass suggests buying on dips [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions on dips; aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin suggests range trading; gold suggests buying on dips; silver suggests range trading [1][10][11][17][18][19][20][21] - **Energy and chemical industry**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash suggests a short - selling strategy [1][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750; apples and jujubes are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agricultural and livestock industry**: Pigs and eggs suggest shorting on rallies; corn suggests wide - range oscillations; soybean meal suggests range oscillations; oils are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][40][43][45][47][49] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has short - term fluctuations due to factors such as Trump's remarks on tariffs and geopolitical events, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The long - term trends of industries like AI in China and the US are clear, and the US monetary and fiscal policies are in force [5] - In the commodity market, different products have different trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment impacts 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to oscillate and are long - term optimistic. Due to trade concerns, geopolitical events, and other factors, there may be short - term fluctuations, but full - scale panic is unlikely. Investors can either wait for better opportunities or lock in positions [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They should be kept under observation. Trump's remarks on retaliatory measures may cause short - term oscillations [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to oscillate. Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend [8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to oscillate. Currently, the price is under the cost of electric - arc furnace valley electricity and long - process production. In October, the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [8] - **Glass**: It suggests buying on dips. Although the current market has some supply - demand problems, under the background of policy expectations, the glass price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. Due to the intensification of Sino - US trade tensions, the price has dropped significantly recently, but the long - term supply - demand situation is still optimistic [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. The supply of alumina is relatively loose, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is entering the peak season. Long positions can be held [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to oscillate. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has some uncertainties for the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of nickel is in surplus, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - **Gold and silver**: They are expected to oscillate. Affected by factors such as the delay of non - farm payroll data and the risk of the US government shutdown, the prices are rising. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price pullbacks [19][20][21] 3.4 Energy and chemical industry - **PVC**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is under pressure, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the pressure at 4850 [22][23] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the range of 2380 - 2530. The market is affected by factors such as upstream inventory and downstream demand [24][25] - **Styrene**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it focuses on the range of 6600 - 6900 [26][27] - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply growth expectation is strong, and it focuses on the support at 15000 [28][29] - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating [30] - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is increasing [32] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The L2601 contract focuses on the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract focuses on the support at 6600 [31][32][33] - **Soda ash**: The 01 contract suggests a short - selling strategy. The supply is abundant, the demand is flat, and the inventory is accumulating [33][34] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand situation has some changes, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US relations [35][36] - **PTA**: It suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand relationships, the price is weakly oscillating [36] - **Apples and jujubes**: They are expected to be strongly oscillating. Apples are affected by weather, and jujubes are affected by factors such as production areas and market demand [37][38] 3.6 Agricultural and livestock industry - **Pigs**: They are overall under pressure. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the price is weak in the short - term. Different contracts have different investment strategies [40][42] - **Eggs**: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term supply is sufficient, the demand is weakening, and different contracts have different investment strategies [43][44][45] - **Corn**: It suggests range oscillations. It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is affected by factors such as new crop listing and demand [45][46] - **Soybean meal**: The rebound is limited. The US soybeans are affected by factors such as harvest pressure and Sino - US talks, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations [47][48] - **Oils**: They are in high - level adjustment. Short - term回调 risks are increasing, and it is recommended to wait for the end of the回调 before considering long positions [49][50][54]

Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to cautiously go long [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the market has been speculating on the time and production line issues of the coal-to-gas conversion plan in Shahe, trading on the policy expectations of eliminating backward production capacity and anti-price involution. Technically, both long and short forces have weakened, but the trend remains strong. Against the backdrop of policy expectations, the glass futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall. Considering the frequent supply-side news disturbances, it is advisable to cautiously go long on the 01 contract and pay attention to the changes in Shahe production lines [3] Summaries by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Main logic: Last week, glass futures fluctuated weakly. Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but due to holidays and rainfall, the shipment of float glass factories was restricted, and the trading in the northern and southern markets weakened. On the supply side, one production line resumed operation last week, and the daily melting volume increased slightly. The national factory inventory rebounded, and the inventories of traders in the main production areas of Shahe and Hubei also increased. Although the spot price has risen significantly recently, the market is still mainly selling at a discount, so the profit improvement is not obvious. On the demand side, downstream processors are still mainly waiting and maintaining just-in-time procurement. In the case of soda ash, after the holiday, the downstream replenishment is over, and the purchasing sentiment has cooled. However, the supply-side pressure continues, and the production is still expected to increase, so it is expected to fluctuate, with a weaker trend than glass [3] - Operation strategy: Cautiously go long [3][4] 2. Market Review - Spot Price - As of October 10, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,230 yuan/ton in North China (+10), 1,220 yuan/ton in Central China (0), and 1,340 yuan/ton in East China (+20). The glass 01 contract closed at 1,207 yuan/ton last Friday, down 63 yuan from the previous week [9][10] 3. Market Review - Basis - As of October 25, the soda ash futures price was 1,240 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,207 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 33 yuan/ton (-12). The basis of the glass 01 contract last Friday was -17 yuan/ton (+50), and the price difference between 01 and 05 contracts was -127 yuan/ton (-14) [11][15] 4. Profit - For the natural gas production process, the cost was 1,577 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was -237 yuan/ton (+21). For the coal gas production process, the cost was 1,164 yuan/ton (-17), and the gross profit was 75 yuan/ton (+32). For the petroleum coke production process, the cost was 1,091 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was 129 yuan/ton (+1). On October 10, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 567 yuan/ton [18] 5. Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 160,155 tons/day (+700). Currently, there are 225 production lines in operation. The first line of Dalian Yaopi in Liaoning with a daily melting volume of 700 tons resumed operation last week [20] 6. Inventory - As of October 10, the total inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,282.4 ten thousand weight boxes (+346.9). Among them, the factory inventory in Hubei was 433 ten thousand weight boxes (+85), the inventory in North China was 1,100.6 ten thousand weight boxes (+188), the inventory in Central China was 634.7 ten thousand weight boxes (+75.7), the inventory in East China was 1,371.1 ten thousand weight boxes (+78.6), the inventory in South China was 965.4 ten thousand weight boxes (+13.4), the inventory in Southwest China was 1,226.6 ten thousand weight boxes (-5.5), and the factory inventory in Shahe was 388 ten thousand weight boxes (+124) [25] 7. Deep Processing - On October 10, the comprehensive sales-to-production ratio of float glass was 90% (-16%), the operating rate of LOW-E glass was 45.2% (-1.9%), and in mid-September, the order days of glass deep processing were 10.5 days (+0.1) [28] 8. Demand - Automobile - In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 224,000 vehicles and a year-on-year increase of 323,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 2.857 million vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 264,000 vehicles and a year-on-year increase of 404,000 vehicles. In August, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.101 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [38] 9. Demand - Real Estate - In August, China's real estate completion area was 26.5913 million m², a year-on-year decrease of 21%; the new construction area was 45.9487 million m² (-20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million m² (-29%); and the commercial housing sales area was 57.4415 million m² (-11%). From September 29 to October 5, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 1.44 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 42% and a year-on-year increase of 58%. In August, the real estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [44] 10. Cost - Soda Ash (Futures) - Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,240 yuan/ton (-75). The basis of the soda ash Huazhong 01 contract last Friday was 60 yuan/ton (+75) [51][52] 11. Cost - Soda Ash (Profit) - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia-alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1,297 yuan/ton (-26), and the gross profit was -29 yuan/ton (+8); the cost of the joint production method was 1,712 yuan/ton (-55), and the gross profit was -77 yuan/ton (+1). Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,258 yuan/ton (+233), and the ex-factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [53][54][55] 12. Cost - Soda Ash (Production) - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 77.08 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.66 tons), including 42.87 tons of heavy soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.28 tons) and 34.21 tons of light soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.38 tons). The number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange last weekend was 7,053 (+2,736). As of October 10, the national in-plant inventory of soda ash was 165.95 tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.83 tons), including 92.07 tons of heavy soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.17 tons) and 73.91 tons of light soda ash (a month-on-month increase of 1 ton) [62][67] 13. Cost - Soda Ash (Apparent Consumption) - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 51.38 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.77 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 36.72 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.57 tons. The sales-to-production ratio of soda ash last week was 92.23%. In August, the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories were 23.6 days [70][71][74]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton compared to before the holiday. The approaching end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening alumina price pressured the ore price down. The operating capacity of alumina remained stable at 98.55 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the national alumina inventory increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons on a weekly basis. The newly put - into - operation alumina capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, and the alumina industry is in a high - stable production situation. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, rising by 15,000 tons to 44.454 million tons compared to before the holiday. The second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project was restored, but the increase in the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in October was very limited. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. Although the double - festivals affected the downstream start - up, the peak demand season remained unchanged, and the operating rates of various downstream processing sectors would continue to rise. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory during the double - festivals was within the normal level and did not exceed expectations. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, the demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, and the operating rate continued to rise. Trump's signal on China - related tariffs raised market panic, causing declines in the commodity and stock markets. The short - term aluminum price may continue to be under pressure and decline, and long - position holders should pay attention to risk avoidance. However, Trump may be adding bargaining chips for the China - US leaders' APEC meeting in October, and the progress of the event and market sentiment should be monitored [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation - adjusted yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (including the on - shore and off - shore exchange rates) [7][8]. 2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision, enhanced environmental inspections, and the rainy season have restricted bauxite mining activities. Since mid - August, after the gradual consumption of domestic ore inventory, it has become a common practice in the industry for alumina plants to increase the use of imported ores. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton. The large Guinea mining enterprises' long - term order quotes for the fourth quarter were slightly adjusted, with the FOB price reduced by $1 per dry ton compared to the third quarter. The sea freight is adjusted according to the oil price fluctuations, and the estimated CIF price is around $73 per dry ton [11]. 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, also unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating rate was 85.9%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,937.7 yuan per ton, down 25.3 yuan per ton compared to before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons on a weekly basis. Newly put - into - operation capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions has entered a stable production state [15]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.454 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from before the holiday. Although the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, the increase in October was expected to be very limited. On September 29, the second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the 200,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum energy - saving renovation project of Baise Guangtou Yinhai was successfully restored [24]. 5. Inventory - The document shows the historical data of social inventories of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventories, and LME aluminum inventories from 2021 to 2025 [30][31][32][33]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.3% to 58.9% compared to before the holiday. Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to clean up local government's illegal tax rebates. The production arrangements of recycled aluminum enterprises during the holiday were relatively stable, and most enterprises did not stop production or only had a short - term shutdown of 1 - 3 days. The market demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, especially for aluminum - water - based orders. However, downstream enterprises' procurement was still cautious, mainly focusing on consuming pre - holiday inventory and replenishing stocks as needed. Policy uncertainty and raw material shortage risks still restricted the start - up of some enterprises [38]. 7. Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. For aluminum profiles, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 53.6%. The resumption of production of some enterprises in East and South China after the holiday was less than expected. In the industrial profile sector, some leading enterprises had good order arrangements for photovoltaic frames in early October; for automotive profiles, new orders remained stable. In the construction profile sector, the market demand was still weak. For aluminum strips, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 68%. During the double - festivals, most leading enterprises maintained normal production. However, some enterprises producing building curtain wall panels had production line rotations or overhauls due to capital chain pressure and longer payment terms, while the demand for industrial plates such as automotive plates and battery shells was stable, and the production lines were basically operating at full capacity. For aluminum cables, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 3% to 64%. Although leading enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday, most enterprises reduced their operating rates, and the restricted logistics during the double - festivals led to the backlog of finished product inventories. With the end of the holiday and the resumption of logistics, combined with the release of traditional rush - work demand in the fourth quarter, the operating rate is expected to rebound. For primary aluminum alloys, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 58%. Some enterprises reduced their operating rates due to lower - than - expected downstream demand, and some enterprises maintained their original production rhythms due to unclear post - holiday order situations [51][55]. 8. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: Long - position holders should avoid risks. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Long - position holders should avoid risks or go long on ADC and short on AL [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the US soybean stocks-to-use ratio is tightening, and prices are expected to fluctuate around 1000 cents per bushel. China's soybeans from September to October have sufficient arrivals, and the spot price is weak. From November to January, the outlook for Sino-US trade improvement is dim, and the price is expected to rise. The M2601 contract price is expected to increase slightly [6]. - For oils, in the short term, the intensification of Sino-US disputes has increased macro risks, and oil prices are expected to follow the external market to correct. However, after the macro factors subside, there is still a possibility of a rebound [79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Section 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of October 11, the spot price in East China was 2930 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the M2601 contract closed at 2922 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the basis price increased by 60 yuan/ton [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed due to the US government shutdown, and the yield is expected to be lowered. Brazil's sowing progress is faster than the same period. China's supply is abundant in October, but there is a risk of supply shortage in the first quarter of next year if US soybean imports cannot continue [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, China's aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year-on-year [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents per bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from the US Gulf is 2990 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3160 yuan/ton [6][49]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - The price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate around 1000 cents per bushel. The price of the M2601 contract is expected to increase slightly, and the strategy is to operate in the range of [2900, 3030] [6]. 3.2 Oil Section 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of October 10, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts all increased compared to before the National Day holiday, and the basis also increased [79][80]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB September report was bearish, but the export data in October was strong. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel test provided support. China's palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply in October is sufficient [79]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Sino-US trade disputes have dampened the prospects of US soybean exports to China. China's soybean supply is sufficient until October, which suppresses soybean oil prices. The supply gap after November has narrowed [79]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Anti-dumping measures have affected imports, and there is a supply gap before November. However, policy uncertainties, high domestic inventories, and alternative imports limit price increases [79]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, oil prices are expected to correct, but there is a possibility of a rebound later. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long, and pay attention to the evolution of Sino-US trade relations [79].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The overall investment rating for the fresh fruit industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - For apples, new-season late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market with opening prices 0.3 - 1.0 yuan per jin higher than last year. Due to continuous rainy weather during the National Day, the peak listing time is delayed. There is limited high - quality supply in the production areas, and merchants are eager to buy high - quality goods, leading to stable and firm prices. The sales areas perform mediocrely, showing a situation of "hot production areas, cold sales areas". New fruit prices are significantly higher than last year, and prices are expected to remain strong [9] - For red dates, new - season red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas are about to be harvested, possibly one week earlier than last year. Inland merchants have gone to the production areas. The orchard - ordering process in Hotan and Aksu is progressing quickly, but prices are not yet representative. During the National Day, the main sales areas have a flat trading atmosphere, and prices are stable. Due to the expected reduction in new - fruit output, prices are expected to be strong [42] 3. Summary by Directory Apples 3.1.1. Weekly View - New - season late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market with higher opening prices. The peak listing is delayed, and there is a "hot production areas, cold sales areas" situation. New fruit prices are expected to remain strong [9] 3.1.2. Market Review - The main apple contract oscillated with an upward bias this week. The apple basis was - 91 yuan, a decrease of 306 yuan compared to last week [13] 3.1.3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of September 26, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.77 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram from last week. The wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.28 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.07 yuan per kilogram from last week. The spot price of Fuji apples has been oscillating recently [16] 3.1.4. Main Apple Production Areas - In Shandong, the price of late Fuji is 3 - 3.5 yuan per jin for a small amount of red fruit, and there is no quote for first - and second - grade fruit. The supply is sporadic, and the commodity rate is low this year. After large - scale listing, high - quality fruit prices are expected to be firm with a large price gap [21] - In Shaanxi, the commodity rate is lower than last year. Merchants are observing. The mainstream quote in Luochuan is 3.5 - 4.2 yuan per jin, and the mainstream transaction price is 3.6 - 3.8 yuan per jin, 0.5 - 0.8 yuan per jin higher than last year [21] 3.1.5. Cold Storage Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main national production areas was 6.79 tons. Old - season Fuji inventory will no longer be counted next week, and new - season late Fuji inventory will be reported later [23] 3.1.6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of arriving trucks in the Guangdong Chalong market fluctuated. The average daily number of arriving trucks from October 3.25 - 9 was about 45.33. The prices of different varieties of apples varied. During the National Day, terminal consumption was slightly slower, and the sales of gift boxes and basket - packed goods were average. The sales of high - quality new - season late Fuji are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some inventory backlog in transit warehouses [28] 3.1.7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples was 0.3 yuan per jin, the same as last week. Old - season storage profit will no longer be updated [31] 3.1.8. Substitute Price Analysis - As of the 41st week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six types of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.08 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.12 yuan per kilogram compared to the 39th week before the festival. The prices of different fruits fluctuated, and the wholesale price of Fuji apples increased [35] Red Dates 3.2.1. Weekly View - New - season red dates in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, possibly one week earlier. Inland merchants have gone to the production areas. Orchard - ordering in some areas is progressing quickly, but prices are not yet representative. During the National Day, the sales areas had a flat trading atmosphere, and prices were stable. Due to expected production reduction, prices are expected to be strong [42] 3.2.2. Market Review - New - season red dates are about to be harvested, possibly one week earlier. The orchard - ordering process in Hotan and Aksu is progressing quickly, with prices ranging from 5.50 - 8.00 yuan per kilogram, and a small amount of high - quality goods at around 9.00 yuan per kilogram. Since the signed volume is small and the dates have not been harvested, the prices are not representative [45] 3.2.3. Spot Price Trend - In Hebei Cuierzhuang, the number of arriving trucks during the holiday was significantly lower than last year. The market was affected by rain, and the trading atmosphere was average, with prices stable [49] - In the Henan market, the spot price of red dates was stable this week. After the double - festival stocking, the trading atmosphere was average. Inland merchants will go to the production areas soon [49] - In Guangzhou Ruyifang, the average daily number of arriving trucks decreased. The market supply decreased during the holiday, and the trading atmosphere was average, with prices changing little [49] 3.2.4. Inventory Data - The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. The sample - point inventory decreased slightly. Pay attention to the circulation of old - season goods and price changes before the new - season harvest [51] 3.2.5. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis - The average purchase price of grey dates in Xinjiang's main production areas in the 2024 production season was 5.33 yuan per kilogram. The first - grade finished - product price in Hebei's sales areas was 9.00 - 9.80 yuan per kilogram. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou was 580 - 610 yuan per ton, and the gross profit was 2.37 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram compared to last week [54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish in the medium to long term for stock indices; hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; buy on dips for glass [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Hold long positions on dips for copper; wait for a pullback and then go long for aluminum; wait and see or go short on rallies for nickel; buy on dips for tin, gold; range trading for silver [1][12][14] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on 01 contract for soda ash [1][23][25][28] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton, cotton yarn and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][37][38] - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with an upward bias for oils [1][41][43][50] Core Views - A - share market is expected to rise with the support of policies, Fed rate - cut expectations and RMB appreciation. Treasury bond market needs to wait for the return of allocation forces [5] - Black building materials market is affected by factors such as coal production, imports and demand. Glass may be supported by real - estate demand in October [7][8][10] - Non - ferrous metals market is influenced by supply disruptions, production cuts, and demand trends. Copper and tin prices are likely to be supported by supply shortages [12][14][19] - Energy chemicals market is facing challenges such as high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. PVC and other products are expected to oscillate [24][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand changes and seasonal factors. Cotton and PTA prices may be under pressure [37][38] - Agricultural and animal husbandry market is influenced by supply - demand imbalances and policy factors. Pig and egg prices are expected to be weak in the short term [41][43] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3900. The market is expected to rise in the medium term due to policies, Fed rate - cut expectations and RMB appreciation. Suggest to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Market volatility was large before the holiday. Whether the long - end and ultra - long - end interest rates can stabilize depends on the return of allocation forces. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: During the National Day, some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production cuts, and Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase after the holiday. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, but the second - round failed. The market is expected to oscillate [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices were oscillating. The current valuation is low, but the demand is still weak. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong in October. Suggest to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. The real - estate demand in October may support the price weakly. Suggest to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, paying attention to the support at 1190 - 1200 for the 2601 contract [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supply was disrupted due to a mine accident in Indonesia, and domestic production is expected to decline. The demand may improve in October. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high. Suggest to hold long positions on dips [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Alumina supply is relatively loose, and electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is in the peak season. Suggest to hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [14] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply. The medium - long - term supply is in surplus. Suggest to wait and see or go short on rallies [19] - **Tin**: Supply is tight due to mine closures in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry is recovering. The price is expected to be supported. Suggest to build long positions on dips [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as delayed non - farm data and Fed rate - cut expectations, the prices are expected to continue the upward trend. Suggest to hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [22] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and exports are uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on 4700 - 4900 [24] - **Caustic Soda**: The increase in warehouse receipts pressured the market. The overall expectation is to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on 2380 - 2530 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on 6700 - 6900 [28] - **Rubber**: The market is affected by supply and demand factors. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the support at 15500 [30] - **Urea**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and the enterprise inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [32] - **Methanol**: Supply recovered, the demand for methanol - to - olefins increased, and the inventory decreased. The short - term market is expected to be weak [33] - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure was relieved during the maintenance season, but the demand was still weak. The PE and PP contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support at 7000 and 6700 respectively [34] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is abundant, demand is flat, and the upstream may face inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday. Adopt a bearish strategy for the 01 contract [36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are expected to increase, but the long - term pressure is still large. Maintain a bearish view in the medium term [37] - **PTA**: Crude oil prices declined, and PTA inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4750 [38] - **Apples**: Due to continuous rain, the red fruit supply was delayed. The current price reference is limited. Pay attention to the price performance after the increase in supply [39] - **Jujubes**: The market purchase and sales were flat during the holiday. The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested. Pay attention to the purchase price [40] Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply increased, demand was limited, and the price continued to decline. The short - term is expected to be weak, and the long - term supply before next year's first half will be high. Suggest to go short on 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long 05 and short 03 [41][43] - **Eggs**: Demand decreased after the holiday, and the price is expected to be weak. Suggest to partially close short positions for the 11 contract and wait for the spot price guidance; wait and see for the 12 and 01 contracts and go short on rallies [44] - **Corn**: New grain is about to be listed, and the price is under seasonal pressure. The long - term supply and demand are expected to be stable and weak. Suggest to go short on rallies for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [46] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are under harvest pressure, and domestic supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support of the M2601 contract at 2900 - 2930 [49] - **Oils**: The price is expected to rise slightly after the holiday, following the external market. Suggest to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm and rapeseed oils and temporarily stop the positive arbitrage strategy for the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference [56]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the hog industry, in the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to increasing supply, high hog weights, and limited demand. In the long term, the supply will continue to grow until the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. However, the price may strengthen in the second half of next year due to expected capacity reduction, but caution is needed due to continuous cost - cutting in the industry [3][6][51][52]. - For the egg industry, in the short term, after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the demand weakens seasonally, and the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [59][60][88][89]. - For the corn industry, in the short term, the market is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply from new grain listings and limited terminal demand recovery. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with strong cost support at the bottom [97][99]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hog Section Market Review - As of October 8, the national hog price was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 2.03 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The Henan hog average price was 11.71 yuan/kg, down 1.94 yuan/kg. On September 30, the main 11 - contract price was 12355 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan/ton (8.85% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was - 645 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from the end of last month. In September, the hog price continued to decline due to increased supply and limited demand. During the National Day, the hog price hit a new low [6][11]. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows was in a balanced upper - limit range, with production performance improving. The supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is at a high level, and the supply pressure before the first half of next year is still large. The hog inventory increased, and the proportion of large hogs decreased. The planned出栏量 of enterprises in September increased, and the出栏 pressure in October is still large [6][16][21]. Demand - In September, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 134508 heads, up 14.28% from the previous month and 21.57% year - on - year. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the terminal demand was weak. After the double festivals, the consumption may decline, but the demand will gradually increase with the cooling weather. However, due to factors such as weak macro - economic recovery and frozen - product inventory, the demand increase is limited [6][32][33]. Cost - The prices of piglets and breeding sows decreased, and the breeding profit was in the red. The long - term breeding cost decreased. As of September 30, the selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 334 yuan/head, down 111 yuan/head from the end of last month. The price of binary sows was 1589 yuan/head, down 11 yuan/head [6][41]. Policy - The government requires the top 25 enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January. The national pig - grain ratio fell below the warning level, and the state carried out pork procurement and rotation. The procurement is expected to be a total of 50,000 tons, which mainly boosts market sentiment [6][47]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, the price is under pressure until the first half of next year and may strengthen in the second half of next year [51][52]. Valuation - The basis of the hog futures contracts weakened, and the valuation was relatively high [53][54]. Egg Section Market Review - As of September 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.27 yuan/jin from the end of August. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin. The main contract price was 3038 yuan/500 kg, up 68 yuan/500 kg. The main basis was - 78 yuan/500 kg, up 182 yuan/500 kg from the end of August. The monthly egg price first rose and then fell [60][64]. Supply - In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens was still relatively high. The supply was sufficient in the short term and the pressure was still large in the long term, but the supply growth rate slowed down [60]. Demand - After the "double festivals", the terminal demand weakened. However, with the cooling weather, the storage period of eggs lengthened, and the low egg price may stimulate inventory demand [60]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [88][89]. Valuation - The main egg futures contract was at the lowest level since 2020, and the basis was at an average level, with a neutral valuation [93]. Corn Section Market Review - As of September 30, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the end of August. The main 2511 - contract price was 2143 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton. The main basis was 157 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The monthly corn price was weak, and the futures price followed the spot price [99][103]. Supply - The old - crop inventory of traders was not high. With the large - scale listing of new grain, the market supply was sufficient, and the price was seasonally pressured. In August, the corn import was 40,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The North and South port inventories decreased [99][115][131]. Demand - The increase in livestock and poultry inventories drove the increase in feed demand, but the high corn - wheat price difference and the new - grain listing led to a decrease in corn feed demand. The deep - processing industry remained in the red, and the start - up rate was low [99]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the market is expected to be weak. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, the demand is gradually recovering, and there is strong cost support at the bottom [99]. Valuation - The futures price was at the lowest level in the same period in the past six years, and the basis was at a relatively high historical level [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The reality and expectations of polyolefins are deviated, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7200 - 7500, the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, focusing on 6900 - 7200, and the LP spread is expected to widen [8][9] - There are still supply - demand contradictions in plastics, and it is expected to run in a fluctuating manner [10] - PP faces significant trend pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 30, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7153 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%. The average price of LDPE was 9596.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The average price of HDPE was 7912.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The LLDPE South China basis was 397 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.52%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 39 yuan/ton (- 47), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on September 30, 2025, was - 39 yuan/ton (- 47); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 28 yuan/ton (- 70); the 9 - 1 month spread was 67 yuan/ton (+ 117) [18] - **Spot Price**: The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in North China, the price of low - melt injection molding decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the price of wire drawing decreased by 2 yuan/ton [20] - **Cost**: In September, WTI crude oil closed at 62.43 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.58 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. Brent crude oil closed at 66.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.31 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 0) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton from the previous month. The profit of coal - based PE was 521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton from the previous month [27] - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene in China at the end of this month was 81.84%, an increase of 3.16 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 64.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. The weekly maintenance loss was 11.37 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons from the previous week [31] - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 613 tons of new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already put into operation and some planned to be put into operation in the future [34] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' plastic production lines are under maintenance, such as Yanshan Petrochemical's HDPE and LDPE production lines, which have been shut down since May 2025 [36] - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 32.86%, an increase of 15.40% from the end of the previous month. The start - up rate of PE packaging film was 52.37%, an increase of 2.81% from the end of the previous month. The start - up rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, an increase of 2.00% from the end of the previous month [38] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 38.5%, with a difference of 3.1% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 9%, with a difference of 2.3% from the annual average level [41] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 53.48 tons, a decrease of 2.72 tons from the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.84% [43] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 30, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,736 lots, an increase of 4,669 lots from the end of the previous month [45] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 30, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75% [49] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP powder decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [52] - **Basis**: On September 30, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6920 yuan/ton (- 3.98%). The PP basis was 68 yuan/ton (- 165), with the basis narrowing. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19), with the month spread narrowing [54] - **Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on September 30, 2025, was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19); the 5 - 9 month spread was 12 yuan/ton (- 101); the 9 - 1 month spread was 28 yuan/ton (+ 120) [58] - **Cost**: In September, WTI crude oil closed at 62.43 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.58 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. Brent crude oil closed at 66.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.31 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 0) [61] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 493.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.16 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The profit of coal - based PP was 338.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.34 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [65] - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 75.52%, a decrease of 4.48 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.61% [70] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are under maintenance, such as Qilu Petrochemical's single - line production line, which has been shut down since January 2025 [73] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate of downstream industries this week was 51.85% (+ 0.40). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.90% (+ 0.30), the start - up rate of BOPP was 61.38% (- 0.04%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.34% (+ 0.11%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.87% (+ 0.14%) [75] - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene this week was - 546.82 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66.76 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 7.23 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.54 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [80] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 52.03 tons (- 5.50%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 1.21% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.58% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 7.61% month - on - month [85] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 30, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,098 lots, an increase of 1,173 lots from the end of the previous month [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the aluminum price remains strong due to the resonance of macro and fundamental expectations. In October, the Fed's interest rate cut and the controllable inflation and economic risks in the US create a favorable macro - environment for the rise of aluminum prices. Although the peak demand season in September was not satisfactory, the demand in October is still promising. The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum slows down, and the aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline, which will support the aluminum price. [1][78] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market in September was a rapid rise followed by a rapid decline. At the beginning of the month, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased, but China's export data was poor, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase, so the aluminum price fluctuated. Then, due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the obvious reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, the aluminum price rose rapidly and hit a new high this year. After that, due to the poor economic data in China and the increase in inventory, the aluminum price fell back. Before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the market's inventory - building sentiment was good, but the non - ferrous metal sector declined, and the aluminum price was weak. [6] 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: It shows data on the Fed's and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decisions, US inflation indicators, freight indices, etc. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. The European Central Bank has also carried out multiple interest - rate cuts since 2024. [12][14] - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: It includes data on GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, inflation, and import - export. China's export growth slowed down in August, and the trade balance was affected by factors such as tariffs. The government has introduced policies to support the economy, such as issuing special bonds. [19][25] 3. Aluminum Raw Material and Production - **Domestic Bauxite**: The production in the main domestic bauxite - producing areas remains stable. Due to safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, and the rainy season, the mining of bauxite is restricted. After the inventory of domestic ore is gradually consumed, alumina plants generally increase the use of imported ore. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea and the increase in imported ore, the price of domestic ore is expected to decline. [28] - **Imported Bauxite**: In August 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 18.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.81% and a year - on - year increase of 18.24%. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the supply - demand surplus pattern of bauxite will be more prominent, and the price of imported ore is expected to decline. [31] - **Alumina**: At the end of September, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina decreased. The production of the alumina industry is in a high - stable state, but due to the decrease in the import of Guinean bauxite and the rapid release of production and inventory accumulation, the price of alumina continues to weaken. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in October. [34] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of September, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 45.232 million tons, and the operating capacity was 44.449 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons. The operating capacity is expected to increase steadily in October, but the new production and restart capacity are very limited. [36][39] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import**: In August 2025, the net import of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 1.917 million tons. In the first and middle of September, the loss of electrolytic aluminum imports increased. In October, with the expectation of the relative strength of Shanghai aluminum, the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase. [42] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit**: In September, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 368 yuan/ton to 15,120 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in the price of alumina. It is expected that the production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry will remain stable in October. [44] 4. Aluminum Downstream Demand - **Automobile**: In August, automobile production and sales increased, and the export reached a new high. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles continued to increase. With the support of special bonds and the arrival of the peak season, and the pre - demand caused by the restart of the new - energy vehicle purchase tax next year, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow. [52] - **Real Estate**: From January to August, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, and sales area all declined. Although the government has introduced a series of loosening policies, the real - estate market is still weak. [55] - **Infrastructure**: In August, the issuance of new local bonds decreased, but the issuance progress of new special bonds in the first eight months was faster, which is expected to drive future infrastructure investment to maintain a high growth rate. However, the use of special bonds for debt repayment and land reserve will have a crowding - out effect on infrastructure investment. The investment in the power grid has increased significantly, and the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic. [58] - **Home Appliances**: In August, the production and export of home appliances showed different trends. The export of home appliances showed certain resilience. With the support of special bonds and the increase in the production schedule of three major white - goods in October, the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to increase. [61] - **Photovoltaic**: In July, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative installed capacity from January to July increased significantly year - on - year. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices, the uncertainty of photovoltaic project returns is partially eliminated, and the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to remain low but may improve month - on - month. [64] - **Aluminum Products Export**: In August, the net export of domestic aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Due to factors such as the restart of US tariffs and the full release of the US import demand, the export of aluminum products in October may decrease month - on - month. [67] 5. Aluminum Price Outlook - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, but the growth rate slows down. The demand in October is expected to improve in some fields, and the cost is expected to remain stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut creates a good macro - environment, and the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory in October is expected to support the aluminum price. If the inventory reduction is not effective, it is recommended to take profit at high points at the end of October and in November. [78]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Monthly Report for October: Peak Season Demand Supports, Prices Fluctuate Widely" [1] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [3] - Report Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends are frequent, and the cost center of lithium carbonate will move up due to issues such as resource tax and mining right transfer fees. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance before the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi is clarified, and South American lithium salt imports may supplement the supply. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the mining license progress in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [60]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Review - Early supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends and off - season demand drove prices to a phased high. In September, with increased arrivals of lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate and continuous production increase in ore - based lithium extraction, prices fell and then fluctuated. As of September 30, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,000 yuan/ton, down 8.5% from the end of last month, and battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 74,000 yuan/ton, down 7.7% [10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Carbonate Lithium Industry Chain Introduction - The supply sources of lithium carbonate include lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, salt lake brine, and recycling lithium extraction. The downstream demand includes new energy vehicles, energy storage, two - wheeled vehicles, and consumer electronics [17]. 2.2 Supply Side - In 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35%. In September 2025, the production was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%, and the production from January to September was 704,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. The production is concentrated in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai, and the proportion of salt - lake lithium extraction will gradually increase in the future. Australian mines have expanded production and reduced costs, and the sources of lithium concentrate imports are diversified. From January to August 2025, China imported about 4.866 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year - on - year increase of 27%, and 155,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 6% [22][24]. 2.3 Demand Side - **Positive Materials**: Carbonate lithium is used to process positive materials for lithium batteries. In 2024, the annual production of lithium iron phosphate was 2.571 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54%, and the production of ternary materials was 707,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. In August 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 329,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50%, and the production of ternary materials was 78,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. It is expected that the production of positive materials in October will increase by 1% month - on - month [31]. - **Power Batteries**: In 2024, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively year - on - year. In August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 55.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In August, the total production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries is booming, and the production in October is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month [34][38]. - **Energy Storage Batteries**: The global energy storage market is growing rapidly. In 2024, the global energy storage battery shipments were 340 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 55%, and the shipments of Chinese energy storage lithium batteries were 331 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 60%. In the first half of 2025, the global energy storage lithium battery shipments were 316 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 98% [43]. - **Consumer Batteries**: In 2024, the global shipments of consumer - type lithium - ion batteries were 124.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 9.63%, and the shipments of Chinese consumer - type lithium batteries were about 55 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 12.24%. It is expected that the shipments of Chinese consumer lithium batteries will further increase in 2025 [48]. 2.4 Lithium Battery Industry Chain Profit Situation - With the arrival of the sales peak season, new energy vehicle sales are expected to maintain high growth, driving the growth of battery and material demand. The demand for lithium battery inventory is strong, and production scheduling is expected to continue to rise. The energy storage demand exceeding expectations will accelerate the arrival of the supply - demand inflection point for batteries and materials, and lithium iron phosphate materials may be the first to see supply - demand and price increase inflection points [51]. 2.5 Inventory Structure - In September, the total social inventory dropped to around 137,000 tons, and it is expected that the inventory removal speed will accelerate in October. As of September 26, the factory inventory of lithium carbonate was 26,000 tons, an increase of 1,305 tons from the end of August, the market inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 64,000 tons, and the inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 10,400 tons to 40,000 tons [56]. 3. Future Outlook for Carbonate Lithium Prices - Supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends continue. The cost of lithium carbonate will rise, and the domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is supported, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the mining license progress in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [60].