Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the short - and long - term due to supply - demand imbalances. Egg prices are also under pressure because of high supply. The oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the second quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be low - level volatile, while the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be stable and upward. Corn prices are expected to be stable and upward in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Category Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.5 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the supply pressure is accumulating. Although the short - term supply pressure is released, the long - term supply is expected to increase from May to September 2024. The demand is weak, and the supply - demand game intensifies [1]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the pig price fluctuates frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. The forward price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the resistance level. The resistance and support levels for the 07 contract are 13700 - 13800 and 13000 - 13100 respectively, and for the 09 contract are 14000 - 14200 and 13300 - 13400 respectively. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.3 yuan/jin (stable) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. The high supply situation is not alleviated [2]. - **Price Trend**: The short - term price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for the 06 contract. Adopt a short - selling strategy for the 08 and 09 contracts when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the resistance level of 3750 - 3800 for the 08 contract [2]. Oil Palm Oil - **International Market**: On May 21, the Malaysian palm oil 08 contract closed at 3896 ringgit/ton (down 0.36%). The supply and demand are both weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the 08 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 [2][3][4]. - **Domestic Market**: From May, a large amount of palm oil will arrive in China. The inventory has increased to 35.97 tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [4]. Soybean Oil - **International Market**: The US biodiesel policy is negative for soybean oil. The short - term trend of US soybeans is expected to be volatile, and the 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1040 - 1050 [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 1 million tons per month. The soybean oil inventory has started to increase to 65.63 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **International Market**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The short - term trend of ICE rapeseed is expected to be volatile and upward [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 87 tons. The supply pressure is high in the short - term. If the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Overall Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile in the short - term, trading in the ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Adopt a short - selling strategy with caution at high prices. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil for the 09 contracts [7]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1062.75 cents/bushel (up 9.75 cents). The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2934 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the domestic spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions for the 09 contract in the short - term. Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton (stable) [8]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the price is supported. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy at the lower edge of the range for the 07 contract. Pay attention to the positive spread strategy between the 7 - 9 contracts [8]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (Cents/Bushel) | 1,061.75 | 1,054.25 | 7.50 | | Soybean Meal Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,934 | 2,889 | 45.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/Ton) | 2,880 | 2,880 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (Cents/Bushel) | 460.00 | 454.50 | 5.50 | | Corn Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,324 | 2,312 | 12.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (Cents/Pound) | 49.75 | 49.57 | 0.18 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/Ton) | 8,140 | 8,230 | - 90.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/Ton) | 3,896 | 3,910 | - 14.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 8,600 | 8,650 | - 50.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian Dollar/Ton) | 719.60 | 704.40 | 15.20 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 9,450 | 9,400 | 50.00 | | Egg Main Contract (Yuan/500 Kilograms) | 2,959 | 2,964 | - 5.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/Jin) | 3.00 | 3.05 | - 0.05 | | Pig Futures Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 13,650 | 13,690 | - 40.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/Kilogram) | 14.60 | 14.60 | 0.00 | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products including PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic. It provides insights into their price trends, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks. Each product has unique factors influencing its market, and the report offers specific trading suggestions and areas of focus for each [2][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 21, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4,969 yuan/ton (+20), with different market prices and a main - contract basis of - 139 yuan/ton (+30). The macro sentiment has warmed up after the China - US trade talks, and the inventory is high but slightly lower than last year. In the short - term, the basis provides some support, but in the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate sector and exports are restricted. The supply has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. The price is mainly driven by the macro environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 21, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2,512 yuan/ton (-15). Influenced by factors like the price increase by Weiqiao and the rise in alumina prices, the price has fluctuated upwards. The supply is increasing as the production - cut devices resume, and the inventory is high with slow destocking. The demand is affected by tariffs, and the non - aluminum industry is entering the off - season. In the short - term, the market is volatile, and in the medium - term, it is advisable to short the 09 contract [3]. Rubber - On May 21, the rubber price was slightly affected by the storage - purchase information but still faced fundamental pressure. In the short - term, the supply of latex is slow, and the raw material price is high, providing some support to the price. However, the inventory is increasing slightly, the future supply is expected to rise, and the downstream demand is weak, resulting in limited upward momentum [4][5]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract rose 0.22% to close at 1,855 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell. The supply is stable, with the开工 rate at 87.5%. The cost of anthracite is stable or slightly decreasing. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate, with support at 1830 - 1850 and resistance at 1930 - 1950 [6]. Methanol - The methanol 2509 contract rose 0.22% to close at 2,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Taicang increased. The supply is relatively abundant, and the cost of coal - based methanol has decreased slightly. The demand is weak, with the olefin industry's start - up rate expected to decline. The inventory in the sample enterprises increased, while the port inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate between 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. Plastic - On May 21, the plastic 2509 contract fell 0.29% to close at 7,221 yuan/ton. The supply decreased due to increased maintenance losses this week. The demand is mixed, with an increase in exports but a decline in the agricultural film industry. The inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350, and attention should be paid to the 7200 support level [9].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 国内目前供需形势，4 月底商业库存只有 415 万吨，工业库存 95 万吨， 按照后面每月 65 万吨消费的话，到了 8 月底商业库存只有 155 万吨， 去年同期是 214 万吨，23 年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是 163 万吨，显 然今年比 23 年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并 不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直偏强就是这个原因，棉 花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形 势，09 合约偏强，短中期上涨意愿概率大。但是到了 01 合约，新棉， 目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦的地 200 万亩，去年种植 番茄其他作物，应该都改种棉花，所以预计新棉丰产至 750 万吨，新 年度供应或宽松了些，因此棉价涨幅受到限制。目前短中期棉价上涨高 度 14000-14100，中美贸易战缓和，5、6 月国内会抢出口的，6 月 30 日美国国债到期不会出现幺蛾子，是中美蜜月期，所以后面认为还会上 涨，但是到了 7、8 月份要谨慎，主要是原因是，此时又怕中美谈判不 顺，会反复，届时会价格会有回落。就目前来看，远期国内丰产缓解紧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships and price trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand, while egg prices are also pressured by high supply. For oils and fats, the market is in a state of shock, with an expected decline in the second quarter and a potential rebound in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is low - level shock, and it is expected to be stable and strong in the medium - long term. Corn prices are expected to be stable and strong, with short - term support and limited upside in the medium - long term due to substitutes [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 14.9 - 15.4 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the scale enterprise's slaughter plan increased, and the high pig weight led to accumulating supply pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking was approaching, the demand was weak due to hot weather and high pig prices. In the medium - long term, the supply from May to September 2024 was increasing, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter of 2024 - 2025 was still large, with high supply and weak demand [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price rebounds to the pressure level. The pressure level for the 07 contract is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is lowered to 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Sell out - of - the - money call options for the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.3 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the low egg price and approaching Dragon Boat Festival may increase demand, but the large new production in May and non - large - scale old chicken culling led to continuous supply accumulation. In the medium - long term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 corresponds to more newly - laying hens from June to August 2025, and the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 06 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish approach and short when the price rebounds. Pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level for the 08 contract [2]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean oil July contract rose 0.26% to 49.57 cents/lb, following the rise of Malaysian palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil August contract rose 0.67% to 3910 ringgit/ton. Domestic palm oil prices rose 80 - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB April report showed an increase in inventory. In May, the export volume increased, but it was in the seasonal production - increasing period. In China, palm oil will arrive in large quantities from May, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The uncertainty of the US biofuel blending policy, the pressure of the South American old - crop soybean listing, and the good sowing progress of the US new - crop soybean dragged down the performance of US soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to be about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The ICE rapeseed's short - term rise is limited, and the downside space is also small. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils fluctuate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Short cautiously when the price rises. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [7][8]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean 07 contract rose 2.25 cents to 1053 cents/bu. The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2889 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the smooth sowing of US soybeans and the South American bumper harvest suppress the price of US soybeans, and the domestic soybean arrival volume increases. In the medium - long term, the increase in import cost and weather disturbances will drive the domestic soybean meal price to be strong [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, reduce short positions in batches. Go long at low prices in the medium - long term, and pay attention to the 2830 support level [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 20, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, stable [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the increase in traders' selling willingness and the decrease in grass - roots grain sources support the price. In the medium - long term, the new - crop yield is expected to decrease, and the import is decreasing, but the supply of substitutes limits the upside space [9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a stable and strong strategy. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Unit | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two - Day - Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | Cents/bu | 1,054.25 | 1,051.25 | 3.00 | | Soybean Meal Main | Yuan/ton | 2,889 | 2,886 | 3.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | Yuan/ton | 2,880 | 2,920 | - 40.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | Cents/bu | 454.50 | 447.00 | 7.50 | | Corn Main | Yuan/ton | 2,312 | 2,330 | - 18.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | Yuan/ton | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | Cents/lb | 49.57 | 49.48 | 0.09 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | Yuan/ton | 8,230 | 8,210 | 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | Ringgit/ton | 3,910 | 3,884 | 26.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,650 | 8,570 | 80.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | Canadian dollars/ton | 704.40 | 695.30 | 9.10 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 9,400 | 9,400 | 0.00 | | Egg Main | Yuan/500 kg | 2,964 | 2,938 | 26.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | Yuan/jin | 3.05 | 3.10 | - 0.05 | | Live Pig Futures Main | Yuan/ton | 13,690 | 13,685 | 5.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | Yuan/kg | 14.79 | 14.79 | 0.00 | [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern recently [1] - For aluminum, with the uncertain impact of the Guinea issue and the approaching off - season, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weakening trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5] - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and it is necessary to focus on supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of May 20, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.26% to 77,540 yuan/ton. Macro factors are positive, but the demand has shown signs of weakening, and the inventory is accumulating at a low level [1] Aluminum - As of May 20, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.45% to 20,075 yuan/ton. The Guinea issue affects the alumina price, and the downstream demand may weaken with the approaching off - season [2] Nickel - As of May 20, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.83% to 122,870 yuan/ton. The nickel market has a complex situation with cost support but supply surplus in the medium - to - long - term [3][5] Tin - As of May 20, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract rose 0.29% to 264,760 yuan/ton. The tin market has a tight raw material supply, and the price is affected by supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Spot copper prices rose, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced copper was limited, and the actual procurement was mainly based on rigid demand [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum market showed a weak transaction, with the holder reluctant to sell at a low price and the downstream having a low procurement willingness [8] Alumina - The alumina spot market was active, with the price rising and the trading volume increasing [9] Zinc - The spot zinc market had a weak transaction, and the downstream entered the traditional off - season with low procurement willingness [10] Lead - The lead spot market had a general trading atmosphere, and the downstream replenished inventory according to rigid demand [11][12] Nickel - The nickel spot market had an improved transaction compared with the previous day, with the demand for rigid procurement increasing at low prices [13] Tin - The tin spot market had a slow sales situation, with some merchants having a strong wait - and - see attitude [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 16,175 tons to 45,738 tons; LME copper inventory decreased by 3,575 tons to 170,750 tons [16] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,351 tons to 61,146 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,525 tons to 390,925 tons [16] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons to 1,526 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,075 tons to 156,725 tons [16] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5,067 tons to 44,980 tons; LME lead inventory decreased by 600 tons to 245,750 tons [16] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 329 tons to 23,142 tons; LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202,098 tons [16] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 94 tons to 8,025 tons; LME tin inventory decreased by 85 tons to 2,655 tons [16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Trump's tax - cut bill is in a deadlock, there is infighting within the Republican Party, and there are discussions about international trade agreements. Domestically, the market rotation is fast and there is no main driving force, so the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the A - share market rose moderately on Tuesday, the structural differentiation intensified. The suppression of the bond market by the equity market is limited. The long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection are favored. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited, but the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4] 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 0.63%, 0.45%, 0.58%, and 0.88% respectively [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.24% and 0.20% respectively, while the 30 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it may fluctuate and rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3865.40 | 0.63 | 52572 | 150105 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2699.40 | 0.45 | 27980 | 51766 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5650.80 | 0.58 | 45384 | 112947 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6019.40 | 0.88 | 124540 | 184920 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.84 | 0.24 | 76231 | 142998 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.95 | 0.20 | 57849 | 109912 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.26 | - 0.03 | 36232 | 42558 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.36 | - 0.03 | 41104 | 94660 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The PVC market is in a state of loose supply - demand due to weak demand and over - capacity. The price is mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a short - term oscillatory trend. In the medium - term, with sufficient supply and limited demand growth, the 09 contract is mainly considered for short - selling [3]. - The rubber market has a weak upward drive due to strong supply increase expectations and weak downstream demand, despite some bottom support from raw material prices [4][5]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate. Supply is stable, and demand from fertilizer use has release expectations, but there is obvious upward price pressure [6]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly due to relatively abundant supply and strong downstream demand wait - and - see sentiment [7][8]. - The plastic market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term. Although supply - side pressure has eased, downstream demand remains weak [9]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - **Price**: On May 20, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4949 yuan/ton (-10), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - **Supply - demand**: High inventory, slightly lower than last year. Demand is dragged down by the real estate industry and exports are restricted. There are new investment plans on the supply side [2]. - **Macro - factor**: Short - term tariff relaxation exceeds expectations, but the substantial impact on demand is still expected to exist [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price**: On May 20, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2533 yuan/ton (-41), and prices in the Shandong market changed [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply has high - level production, new production expectations, and high - level inventory with difficult destocking. Demand is affected by tariffs in non - aluminum industries, and there are different situations in the aluminum industry [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, medium - term short - selling for the 09 contract [3]. Rubber - **Price**: On May 20, affected by storage information, the RU center of gravity slightly decreased. Various rubber prices and spreads are provided [4][5]. - **Supply - demand**: Short - term raw material prices provide bottom support, but later supply increase is expected to be strong, and downstream demand is weak [4][5]. Urea - **Price**: The 2509 contract rose 0.11% to close at 1849 yuan/ton, and the spot price declined [6]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply is stable, and demand from fertilizer use has release expectations. Exports have some elasticity, but there is obvious upward price pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory decreased, and port inventory increased [6]. Methanol - **Price**: The 2509 contract fell 1.1% to close at 2256 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply is relatively abundant, and downstream demand is wait - and - see, with low willingness to purchase high - price methanol [7][8]. - **Inventory**: Sample enterprise inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [8]. Plastic - **Price**: On May 20, the 2509 contract fell 0.22% to close at 7222 yuan/ton, and different types of plastic spot prices changed [9]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply - side production and output decreased due to increased maintenance. Downstream demand has mixed performance, with short - term export increase but weak internal demand [9]. - **Inventory**: Upstream production and trade inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black - industry products including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and also presents relevant economic news. It suggests that different products face different supply - demand situations and price trends in the short - term [1][3][4]. - **Rebar**: Despite the improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the implementation of favorable domestic monetary policies, the market is still waiting for fiscal policy support. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to low valuation but weakening demand [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is affected by factors such as the fading of tariff - related positive sentiment, uncertain export rush, and insufficient domestic demand. The 09 contract is expected to trade in a range, and 9 - 1 arbitrage opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the profit - repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises and import coal price fluctuations [3]. - **Coke**: The market is short - term weak and may face a second round of price cuts if terminal demand does not improve. Key factors to watch include steel sales, blast - furnace operation, and coking coal cost support [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Price**: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 142 (+11) [1]. - **Macro**: Sino - US talks had better - than - expected results with significant tariff cuts, and domestic monetary policy benefits have been implemented, but the market is waiting for fiscal policy [1]. - **Industry**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded significantly, and inventory decreased again. However, demand will face seasonal weakening, and steel mills have little willingness to cut production due to good profits [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price is lower than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a low static valuation. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Iron Ore - **Price**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 763 yuan/wet ton (+1), the Platts 62% index was 100.10 dollars/ton (- 0.25), and the PBF basis was 82 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Supply - demand**: The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,706.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 283.7. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,127.25 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.44. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [1]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see or focus on 9 - 1 arbitrage opportunities [1]. Coking Coal - **Supply**: Domestic main - producing area coal mines have stable production, and the supply of coking coal remains abundant. The online auction failure rate of coal mines is high, and some coal prices are falling [3]. - **Demand**: After the first round of price cuts for coke, the profit of coking enterprises has narrowed, and they maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy. Steel mills also keep low - inventory operation [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally resolved, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [3]. Coke - **Supply**: After the first - round price cut, the profit of coking enterprises has narrowed, but cost support allows normal production. However, the production enthusiasm of some coking enterprises varies [4]. - **Demand**: Hot - metal production is at a high level, but terminal demand recovery is weak. Steel mills adopt a low - inventory strategy and mainly purchase for rigid demand [4]. - **Outlook**: The market is short - term weak, and there may be a second - round price cut if terminal demand does not improve [4]. Economic News - **LPR**: In May, both the 5 - year and 1 - year LPRs were cut by 10 basis points. The 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [6]. - **Industrial Output**: In April, the output of Chinese rebar was 17.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the output of medium - thick wide steel strips was 18.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The output of cars was 2.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the output of air - conditioners was 30.833 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [6]. - **Re - production**: Jilin Jianlong's non - oriented silicon steel production line resumed production ahead of schedule on May 15 [6]. - **Mortgage Rate**: The first - home mortgage rate in China will enter the "2 - digit" era, reducing the monthly mortgage payment for homebuyers [6].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 21 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区间【2320，2380】操 ...

贵金属日报 贵金属 昨日三大美股指数收涨，标普 500 上涨 0.09%，美债收益率上行，10 债 收益率当前报 4.46%，十年期通胀预期为 2.36%。美元指数震荡，当前 报 100.56，离岸人民币贬值，当前报 7.22，贵金属价格延续震荡，美黄 金 3221，美白银 32.48，外盘金银比 99； 宏观消息面： 1、美国总统特朗普周一表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始停火谈判，以 解决长达三年之久的冲突，但在两小时的通话中，他似乎并未从俄罗斯 总统普京那里获得重大让步。"俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始谈判，以实现 停火，更重要的是结束战争，"特朗普说，他随后在白宫补充说，他认为 "正在取得一些进展"。普京在与特朗普通话后表示，结束战争的努力 "总 体上处于正确轨道上"，莫斯科已准备好与乌克兰就可能达成的和平协议 进行合作。 观点：中美关税谈判取得超预期进展，美国 4 月非农就业数据超预期强 劲，特朗普表示将对中国下调关税，美联储政策维持独立性，市场避险 情绪下降，近期美国经济数据韧性存在，黄金价格震荡回调。美国关税 政策引起市场担忧，市场对经济硬着陆担忧升温，预计年内降息次数增 加。美联储 5 月议息会议延续偏 ...