饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： ◆鸡蛋： 5 月 23 日山东德州报价 2.8 元/斤，较上日跌 0.1 元/斤；北京报价 3.14 元/ 斤，较上日跌 0.16 元/斤。短期蛋价跌至低位，且鸡蛋性价比尚可，随着端 午临近，渠道及下游采购需求或增加，预计对蛋价形成支撑，但 5 月新开产 量较大，叠加老鸡淘汰未放量，供应持续累积，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存储， 渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体端午节日有利好，但高供 应未缓解下，蛋价走势承压。中长期来看，25 年 2-4 月补栏量依旧较高， 对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能 力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转， 关注近端淘汰情况。短期产能未出清，蛋价走势承压，关注近端淘汰及原料 成本波动扰动。策略建议：06 限仓，观望为主；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 等待反弹逢高做空为主，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰 动。关注消费情况、淘鸡、各环节库存等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花 顺） 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-23 公司资质 长江期货股份 ...

长江期货研究咨询部 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 赵丹琪：| Z0014940 电话：027-65777110 邮箱：zhaodq1@cjsc.com.cn 期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 23 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market currently has high inventory, but the basis provides some support in the short - term. In the long - run, due to weak demand and over - capacity, the price is mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. - The caustic soda market has high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with slow short - term supply increase and high raw material prices providing some support, but the overall upward drive is insufficient due to strong future supply increase expectations and weak demand [4][5]. - The urea market has stable supply and expected demand release, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. - The methanol market has relatively abundant supply and strong downstream demand wait - and - see sentiment. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. - The plastic market has reduced supply pressure due to increased maintenance, but weak downstream demand. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8]. Summary by Product PVC - On May 22, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4926 yuan/ton (- 43), and the market prices in different regions showed different trends. The basis strengthened recently, providing some support to the futures price [2]. - In the long - term, demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, and exports are restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. The price is mainly affected by the macro - environment [2]. - The short - term tariff relief exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to tariff progress [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 22, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the market prices in Shandong increased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is high and the de - stocking is not smooth [3]. - The supply side has high - profit and high -开工, with new device production expectations. The demand side is affected by tariffs, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has slowed down. The alumina industry has mixed production situations [3]. - The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as delivery volume, inventory de - stocking, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On May 22, the rubber price center declined slightly. The short - term supply increase is slow, and the high raw material prices provide some support, but the future supply increase expectation is strong and the demand is weak [4][5]. - As of May 18, the inventory in Qingdao and the social inventory of natural rubber showed different trends. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed, and the inventory continued to increase [5]. - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China are provided, and the basis between Yunnan full - latex and the RU main contract changed [5]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 0.48% to close at 1849 yuan/ton, and the spot price continued to decline slightly. The supply side has stable production, and the cost of anthracite is stable or decreasing [6]. - The demand side shows that the capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand support of other industrial sectors is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to be released, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. Methanol - The methanol 2509 contract fell 1.1% to close at 2241 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Taicang decreased. The supply side has a reduced capacity utilization rate and production volume [7]. - The cost of coal - to - methanol has decreased slightly, and most are in a profitable state. The demand side shows that the olefin industry's开工 rate has decreased, and the traditional demand has limited support [7]. - The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. Plastic - On May 22, the plastic 2509 contract fell 1.01% to close at 7159 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of plastics decreased. The supply side has reduced开工 and production due to increased maintenance losses [8]. - The demand side shows that the export of plastic products has increased in the short - term, but the demand for agricultural films has declined, and the demand for packaging films and pipes is average [8]. - The inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent, but the future market expectation is still weak. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Cotton is expected to show a moderately strong upward trend in the short - to medium - term, especially during the Sino - US "honeymoon period" in May and June. However, caution is needed in July and August. The 09 contract is relatively strong, while the 01 contract may face supply pressure due to expected new cotton production. The price is also highly affected by macro factors [1]. - PTA is likely to operate under pressure. With the weakening of demand and the restart of some production enterprises, the PTA market may continue to be under pressure in the short term without new positive factors [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to trade in a range. Although the cost is decreasing and the supply - demand situation is favorable, there may be a price correction due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is expected to trade in a range. The price may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term due to the approaching terminal off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. - Sugar is expected to trade sideways. Internationally, there are expectations of increased production in Brazil, while domestically, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors [4][5]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level. With low inventory, the price is likely to remain in a high - level range, although the market may be affected by the listing of seasonal fruits [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of the end of April, the commercial inventory was 415 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 million tons. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, and the new cotton in the 01 contract may lead to a supply increase. The short - to medium - term price is expected to rise, especially in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The price is affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to hedge at the rebound high [1]. - On May 22, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,621 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total cotton warehouse receipts were 11,757 (- 14) sheets [8]. - As of early May, Brazil's 2025 new cotton harvest has not started, with an expected total output of 3.95 million tons. In April, Brazil exported 239,000 tons of cotton, and the cumulative export volume this year is at a historical high [8]. - On May 22, the Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index was 0.1311 yuan/ton·km, down 1.35% month - on - month [8]. PTA - As of May 14, the average PTA processing margin was 390.88 yuan/ton, down 10.5% month - on - month and up 7.68% year - on - year. As of May 15, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 74.63%, down 0.35% month - on - month and up 4.68% year - on - year. The PTA output was 1.2967 million tons, a slight decrease from last week [8][9]. - The PTA market is under pressure due to weakening demand and the restart of production enterprises. The price is affected by factors such as crude oil and polyester production cuts [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate in China was 61.04%, down 2.42% month - on - month. The production was 368,300 tons, down 1.32% from last week [10][13]. - The price is expected to trade in a range. Although the cost is decreasing and the supply - demand situation is favorable, there may be a price correction [3]. Short - fiber - As of the 8th, the weekly output of domestic short - fiber was 166,900 tons, up 1.52% month - on - month, and the average capacity utilization rate was 88.24%, up 1.30% month - on - month. The average polymerization cost was 5,706.60 yuan/ton, up 7.35% month - on - month, and the industry cash flow was - 361.60 yuan/ton, down 86.41% month - on - month [11]. - The price is expected to be strong in the near term but weak in the long term due to the approaching terminal off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. Sugar - The NFCSF expects India's 2024/25 sugar production to be about 2.611 million tons, lower than the previous season. The ISO has raised the global sugar shortage estimate for the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, and the cumulative import from January to April was 278,400 tons, a significant decrease year - on - year [12][13][14]. - The sugar price is expected to trade sideways. Internationally, there are expectations of increased production in Brazil, while domestically, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors [4][5]. Apples - As of May 21, the total apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 1.7085 million tons, down 242,500 tons from the previous week. The prices in Shaanxi Luochuan and Shandong Qixia are provided [15]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level. With low inventory, the price is likely to remain in a high - level range, although the market may be affected by the listing of seasonal fruits [5]. Macro Information - Trump's tax - cut bill has passed the House of Representatives and will be reviewed by the Senate. The bill plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion [8]. - The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI improved slightly, but the service PMI declined significantly, dragging down the composite PMI. The market is increasing bets on the ECB to cut interest rates twice this year [8].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周四，螺纹钢期货价格窄幅震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3190 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 129（-10）。基本面方面，本周螺 纹钢表需回落、产量回升，库存去化速度放缓，需求即将季节性走弱，而 当下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，供需矛盾将会逐步显现。后市 而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处 于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规 模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转 弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD， Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿石盘面窄幅震荡。受抢出口和高铁水意思影响，价格在相对 高位继续调整。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 757 元/湿吨（-8）。普氏 62% 指数 99.7 美元/吨（-0.45），月均 99.89 美元/吨。PBF 基差 73 元/吨 （-8）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,706.10 万吨，环+283.7。 45 港口+247 钢厂总库存 23,127.25 万吨，环-70.44。24 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Extreme conservative House members threaten to block Trump's tax - cut bill, and the White House warns that killing the bill would be an "ultimate betrayal". The EU says the US negotiation proposal is unrealistic and has a new plan. The US states that the Treasury Secretary and the Japanese Finance Minister did not discuss exchange - rate levels at the G7 meeting. Shanghai releases a special action plan to boost consumption. The domestic market rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The suppression of bonds by the equity market is limited. Treasury bond futures show strong buying support near the technical support level in the afternoon. The market is looking for cost - effectiveness, and the allocation funds favor long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited under the background that the logic of loose liquidity remains and the signal of fundamental recovery needs to be verified. However, the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and the trend is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.43%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.46%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.13%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.18% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.27%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. Futures Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided in a table [12].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 22 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 偏强震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： 区间【2300，2360】操作 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern in the near term [1] - For aluminum, due to the complex situation of production and demand, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - Nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term with a cost - supported downside limit and a supply surplus situation [3][5] - The price of tin is expected to have increased volatility, and it is necessary to focus on supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of May 21, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.31% to 78,100 yuan/ton. Macro factors are positive, but the demand shows weakening signs, and the support of inventory for copper prices is weakening [1] Aluminum - As of May 21, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.65% to 20,190 yuan/ton. The alumina price has rebounded, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The downstream demand may weaken, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Nickel - As of May 21, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.05% to 123,280 yuan/ton. The cost is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 21, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract rose 1.11% to 267,730 yuan/ton. The tin ore supply is tight, and the production resumption expectation is strong. The price volatility is expected to increase [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price rose, but the spot market trading was light, and the spot premium decline suppressed the price [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rose, but the market transaction was mediocre, and the high - price supply demand was weak [8] Alumina - The alumina spot price in different regions rose, and the market trading was active with sufficient trading momentum [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price rose, but the downstream procurement was cautious, and the transaction was light [10] Lead - The spot lead price rose, and the market activity increased slightly with mainly rigid - demand procurement [11][12] Nickel - The spot nickel price rose, but the traders were cautious, and the transaction was light [13] Tin - The spot tin price rose, the traders' rigid - demand restocking willingness increased, and there was a phenomenon of reluctant selling [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For copper, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,520 tons to 41,218 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,925 tons to 168,825 tons [16] - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,625 tons to 59,521 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,025 tons to 388,900 tons [16] - For zinc, SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 126 tons to 1,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 1,150 tons to 157,875 tons [16] - For lead, SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3,884 tons to 41,096 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 36,375 tons to 282,125 tons [16] - For nickel, SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 128 tons to 23,014 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons [16] - For tin, SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8,070 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons to 2,670 tons [16]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 国内目前供需形势，4 月底商业库存只有 415 万吨，工业库存 95 万吨， 按照后面每月 65 万吨消费的话，到了 8 月底商业库存只有 155 万吨， 去年同期是 214 万吨，23 年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是 163 万吨，显 然今年比 23 年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并 不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直偏强就是这个原因，棉 花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形 势，09 合约偏强，短中期上涨意愿概率大。但是到了 01 合约，新棉， 目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦的地 200 万亩，去年种植 番茄其他作物，应该都改种棉花，所以预计新棉丰产至 750 万吨，新 年度供应或宽松了些，因此棉价涨幅受到限制。目前短中期棉价上涨高 度 14000-14100，中美贸易战缓和，5、6 月国内会抢出口的，6 月 30 日美国国债到期不会出现幺蛾子，是中美蜜月期，所以后面认为还会上 涨，但是到了 7、8 月份要谨慎，主要是原因是，此时又怕中美谈判不 顺，会反复，届时会价格会有回落。就目前来看，远期国内丰产缓解紧 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格窄幅震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较 前一日持平，10 合约基差 139（-2）。宏观方面，中美会谈成果超预期， 双方大幅互降关税，国内货币政策利多已经落地，不过市场仍在期待财 政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢表需大幅回升，库存再度去化，但是 需求即将面临季节性走弱压力，当下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足， 后期供需矛盾会逐步显现。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格 低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸 易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现 实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震 荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，铁矿石盘面窄幅震荡。受抢出口和高铁水意思影响，价格在相对 高位继续调整。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 765 元/湿吨（+2）。普氏 62% 指数 100.15 美元/吨（+0.05），月均 99.9 美元/吨。PBF 基差 81 元/ 吨（-1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,706.10 万吨，环+ ...