长江期货PTA产业周报 产业供需去库，短期偏强震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-12 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 行情回顾： 1 01 上周回顾——短期供需尚可，市场低位震荡 PX：上周PX价格低位反弹。一方面成本端原油价格支撑走强。另一方面PX供应端继续减产，周度产量减少， 社会库存缓降，PXN略有回升，总体而言较前一周基本略有好转，在春检时期，短期市场价格反弹。 PTA：上周PTA价格低位回升。成本端国际油价支撑化工品反弹；供应装置方面，恒力惠州与恒力大连按计划 检修，PTA开工下降，下游聚酯负荷小幅降低，综合供需PTA去库延续，总体供需好于前一周，价格反弹。 乙二醇：上周乙二醇价格低位反弹，期初受五一期间国际油价下行影响，节后价格低开；而后随着宏观面逐步 转好，逢低买盘兴趣提升推动市场从低位反弹走势，期现价格开始反弹，但由于港口 ...

长江期货纸浆产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-5-12 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：洪润霞 执业编号: F0260331 投资咨询号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号: F0270997 投资咨询号:Z0002826 联系人：钟 舟 执业编号: F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号: F3033495 低位止跌 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：智利Arauco调整4月报价，针叶浆银星770美元/吨；阔叶浆明星560美元/吨，较前期有明显下调。欧洲港 口数据显示，欧洲港口总库存环比增长7.60%，较2024年3月增长25.96%，除德国港口环比缩减外，其余多数国家港 口库存环比增长。3月纸浆进口总量为325万吨，环比+0.9%，同比+2.5%。截止2025年4月30日,国内主要地区及港 口周度纸浆库存量环比下降2.12%，各个港口出货速度仍有差异，其中高栏港到货相对集中。需求端维持偏弱运行。 纸浆成本支撑大幅下调，供应端维持宽松态势，需求端持续疲软，基本面格局整体偏弱，纸浆承压运行为主。 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观市场风险 数据来源：博易大师、IFI ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly; Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range; Aluminum is recommended for observation; Nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies; Tin is recommended for trading within a range; Gold is recommended for building positions on dips after a full price correction; Silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][12][17][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly; Caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly; Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly; Urea is recommended for interval operation; Methanol is recommended for interval operation; Plastic is expected to fluctuate; Soda ash is recommended for holding short positions in call options [1][21][25][27] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate and rebound; Apples are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][29][30] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; Eggs are recommended for short - selling on rallies; Corn is expected to fluctuate strongly; Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; Oils are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35][37] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market based on factors such as macro - economic data, industry supply and demand, and trade policies. For example, in the macro - finance sector, international trade policies and domestic economic data affect the performance of index futures and Treasury bonds. In the commodity sectors, supply - demand relationships, production costs, and trade frictions play important roles in determining price trends [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Influenced by international trade policies and domestic economic data, such as Japan's "zero - tariff" demand, Sino - US trade talks, and China's CPI and PPI data, the index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The adjustment in the bond market is related to capital expectations. The pricing logic of the futures market is that the steepening of the curve may be near the end. The opportunities in the bond market lie in the medium - long end of the curve, and the potential risks come from the short end [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures is lower than the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. The policy is expected to have repeated games on Sino - US tariffs, and the probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term is small. The supply - demand situation is fair, but the market expectation is weak due to tariff and seasonal factors, so the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment of iron ore has declined slightly, with a significant drop in Australian shipments. The demand for iron ore is approaching the traditional off - season, and the high - level pig iron production has limited upward space. Considering the peak of pig iron production and continuous international trade frictions, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, the supply pressure in some regions is emerging, and the demand is limited. For coke, the supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the weak terminal demand for steel. Overall, the coking coal and coke market is expected to fluctuate [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation has eased, but the negative impact of the previous trade war on the economy still exists. The domestic copper inventory has decreased, and the support for copper prices from fundamentals is strong, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended for cautious trading within a range [12] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is increasing, and the price is decreasing. The alumina market is in a state of coexistence of production, resumption, and reduction. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended for observation [14] - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is not optimistic, and the supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel ore is firm, but the pure nickel is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies [15][16] - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production has decreased, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of复产. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended for trading within a range [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by Sino - US trade talks, US economic data, and tariff policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in July, and the central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's April inflation data [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC demand is affected by the real estate industry, and the export is restricted. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is still high. The price is at a low level, and the macro - situation dominates. It is recommended to pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda has rebounded, but the supply pressure is large in the medium - term, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production, and exports [22] - **Rubber**: In the short - term, the price of rubber is supported by the delay of rubber tapping in Thailand, but the downstream demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory is increasing. In the long - term, if there is no major reversal in policies and tariffs, the market will be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. It is recommended to pay attention to tariff trends, rubber - tapping policies, and weather conditions [23][24] - **Urea**: Driven by export news, the urea price has risen and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, and the demand for fertilizers in the south and north will be released. It is recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [25] - **Methanol**: After the holiday, the supply has increased and the demand has decreased. The downstream is cautious in purchasing. The supply is expected to continue to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin production, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [26] - **Plastic**: Affected by tariffs, the plastic price has dropped. The supply pressure is large due to new capacity, and the demand is in the off - season. Although there are some positive factors, the short - term is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [27] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash is firm, but the futures price has dropped slightly due to insufficient expected maintenance. The supply is still high, but the maintenance is expected to increase. The downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and to pay attention to short - term lows and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [28] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, the downstream consumption is weak, and the Sino - US trade friction has uncertainties. The cotton price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [29] - **Apples**: The current apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [30] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and OPEC's production increase expectations, the cost of PTA has decreased. Although the supply - demand is good and the inventory is decreasing, the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4200 support level [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing and postponed, putting pressure on the pig price. However, the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions and short on rallies [33] - **Eggs**: After the May Day holiday, the demand has declined, and the supply is increasing, putting pressure on the egg price. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The 06 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the 08 and 09 contracts are recommended for short - selling on rallies [35] - **Corn**: The supply of corn from the grassroots level has decreased, and the market is bullish. In the long - term, the new crop yield may decrease, and the import may continue to decline, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [35] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the supply of soybean meal is increasing, and the price is expected to decline. In the long - term, due to tariff policies and weather factors, the cost will increase, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [37] - **Oils**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil is large, and the price of rapeseed oil is relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion strategy of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [37][38][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "5.7 package of policies" is a deep - seated advancement of the "9.24 policy combination", aiming to enhance market expectations, stimulate market entity vitality, and support the real economy and capital market [2]. - With the inflow of long - term funds, savings funds, and foreign capital, the A - share market is expected to enter a new upward cycle [14]. - The technology sector is the biggest beneficiary of the policy dividends, with clear value - growth logic, and the technology - led investment theme in the A - share market is further strengthened [15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Background and Policy Comparison - The "9.24 policy combination" was introduced when the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2700 points, aiming at "market rescue", while the "5.7 package of policies" focuses on "stabilizing expectations" and structural optimization [3]. - The "5.7 package of policies" is introduced due to the impact of Sino - US tariff games, low - running prices, and the need to maintain the stable development of core markets [4][7][9]. 3.2 Policy Content - **Monetary Policy**: Both the "9.24 policy combination" and the "5.7 package of policies" include a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut. The "5.7 package of policies" also reduces the reserve requirement ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0%. The "9.24 policy combination" cuts interest rates by 20bp, while the "5.7 package of policies" cuts interest rates by 10bp and reduces the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [3]. - **Capital Market Policy**: The "9.24 policy combination" creates swap facilities and re - loan tools. The "5.7 package of policies" increases the scale of structural funds, creates risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and expands the scope of long - term investment pilot projects for insurance funds [3]. - **Real Estate Policy**: The "9.24 policy combination" reduces the stock mortgage rate and unifies the minimum down - payment ratio for first - and second - home mortgages. The "5.7 package of policies" reduces the individual housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points [3]. 3.3 Market Situation - **Capital Market**: In May, the stock index trend is affected by the expectation of incremental policies and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations. After the release of multiple positive factors, the stock index achieved a "good start" in May, but market divergence has increased [12]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has shown signs of improvement, but the new - home sales momentum is insufficient. Continued policy support is needed to promote its stable and healthy development [11]. 3.4 Investment Opportunities - **Overall Market**: With the inflow of long - term funds, savings funds, and foreign capital, the A - share market is expected to enter a new upward cycle [14]. - **Technology Sector**: It is the biggest beneficiary of the policy dividends. Emerging sectors such as AI computing power and low - altitude economy have long - term investment value, and it is recommended to invest in segments of the consumer electronics recovery chain and robot industry chain [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Egg Market**: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - **Oil Market**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - **Strategy**: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - **Strategy**: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile after the holiday, and interval trading is recommended due to supply - demand tensions and potential demand - side impacts [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken as the current upward trend is hard to sustain with the impact of US tariffs on demand gradually emerging [4]. - Nickel prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend under the condition of supply surplus [6]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased fluctuations, and interval trading is recommended, with attention paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: As of May 8, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.90% to 77,330 yuan/ton. The US copper market was pressured, and the domestic copper price fluctuated significantly during the holiday. The supply - demand fundamentals are still tight, but the upward space of copper prices is limited. After the holiday, Shanghai copper may remain volatile [2]. - **Aluminum**: As of May 8, the Shanghai aluminum main 06 contract fell 0.69% to 19,510 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is improving, and the alumina market is in a state of mixed production. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the inventory is being depleted. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken [4]. - **Nickel**: As of May 8, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.36% to 123,630 yuan/ton. The inflation in the US has cooled, and the domestic manufacturing PMI has declined. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel production is in the off - season. Nickel prices are expected to be weak and volatile [5][6]. - **Tin**: As of May 8, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.16% to 261,480 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production may decrease, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production is expected to resume. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly, and interval trading is recommended [7]. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Domestic spot copper prices showed mixed trends. The spot premium structure was firm, but the downstream consumption was cautious, and the trading activity decreased [8]. - **Aluminum**: The spot transaction price increased. The trading in the spot market was active, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased [9]. - **Zinc**: The spot price increased. The trading activity in the spot market improved, and the high - premium pattern supported the price [11][12]. - **Lead**: The spot price increased. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the market activity needed to be further improved [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The spot price decreased. Some merchants were cautious, and the market activity needed to be improved [15][16]. - **Tin**: The spot price increased. The spot market remained cautious, and the traders had difficulty in selling [17]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **Copper**: The copper futures warehouse receipt decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons, and the copper inventory increased by 300 tons to 194,275 tons [19]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum futures warehouse receipt decreased by 2,752 tons to 66,106 tons, and the aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 405,575 tons [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc futures warehouse receipt remained unchanged at 2,053 tons, and the zinc inventory decreased by 750 tons to 170,650 tons [19]. - **Lead**: The lead futures warehouse receipt decreased by 50 tons to 39,931 tons, and the lead inventory decreased by 1,550 tons to 255,150 tons [19]. - **Nickel**: The nickel futures warehouse receipt decreased by 145 tons to 23,564 tons, and the nickel inventory decreased by 1,470 tons to 198,312 tons [19]. - **Tin**: The tin futures warehouse receipt decreased by 34 tons to 8,334 tons, and the tin inventory remained unchanged at 2,755 tons [19].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周四，螺纹钢期货价格偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3190 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 30 元/吨，10 合约基差 138（+16），7 日上午国新办举行新闻 发布会，央行等多部门介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 关情况，货币政策利多落地，盘面高开低走，目前市场仍在期待财政政 策发力。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近， 仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计 中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 不建议追空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, Fed's stance, and domestic policies. Different energy and chemical products have different market trends and influencing factors. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by seasonal factors, export policies, and raw material prices [2][3][5][6] 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 8, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4,839 yuan/ton (-37), and the market price in different regions showed some declines. In the long - term, PVC demand is sluggish due to the real - estate drag, and exports are restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. Currently, it is macro - dominated, and the disk shows weak consolidation. Key points to watch are tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [2] Caustic Soda - On May 8, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2,463 yuan/ton (-50). The inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply is still sufficient while the demand growth is limited. It is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. Key points to watch are the delivery volume and price of Weiqiao, inventory de - stocking, and mid - term alumina production and exports [3] Rubber - On May 7, rubber showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. If there are no major reversals in domestic policies and tariff issues, it is expected to run weakly in the medium - term. Key points to watch are tariff developments and post - tapping weather [4][5] Urea - The urea main contract fell 0.11% to close at 1,882 yuan/ton. The daily average output of urea is at a historical high. The demand side has different situations in agriculture, industry, and exports. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the 09 contract operating in the 1,750 - 1,950 yuan/ton range [6] Methanol - The methanol main contract fell 1.55% to close at 2,216 yuan/ton. The methanol device operating rate is lowered, and the downstream methanol - to - olefins operating rate is stable. The inventory situation is divided between the inland and ports. It is expected to run in a fluctuating manner in the short - term, with an operating range of 2,130 - 2,350 yuan/ton [7] Plastic - On May 8, the plastic main contract fell 0.61% to close at 7,016 yuan/ton. The supply side is under pressure due to new production capacity in the second quarter, and the demand side enters the off - season. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term. Key points to watch are downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff negotiations, and crude oil price fluctuations [8][9]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 特朗普喊"买股票"，再批鲍威尔动作慢，称他什么都不懂，几乎没有通胀。 英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，细节待敲定；特朗普称对英协议并非模 板，10%或是最低，他国关税可能更高。欧盟将就美关税向世贸组织提出诉 讼，并准备对 950 亿欧元自美国进口产品采取反制措施，拿汽车、飞机和威 士忌"开刀"。关注近期的中美会谈，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡偏强 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 后续走势上，如果中短端仍继续强势，曲线陡峭化也会让长端有一定性价比， 在没有利空环境下，长端或出现补涨。央行大概率仍会继续净投放，参考之 前发行，可能会先营造较好的情绪，压低一级发行利率，但午后可能开始避 险周末中美谈判，不过目前市场对谈判达成成果的预期不高，可能调整也不 会有太大空间，下周还会陆续公布 4 月份经济金融数据，整体利好债市。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-05-09 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F ...