Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of pigs is increasing and being postponed, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, but the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, resulting in limited decline. Egg prices are expected to be supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. The short - term outlook for palm oil is weak, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be stronger than palm oil in the short - term. In the long - term, the overall trend of oils is to decline in the second quarter and potentially rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, with a long - term upward trend. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias in the long - term, but the upside is limited by substitutes [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Product Pigs - On May 13, the spot prices in different regions were stable. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the supply will increase later. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 is increasing, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to go short on rebounds. The pressure and support levels for 07 and 09 contracts are provided [1]. Eggs - On May 13, egg prices in some regions increased. Short - term price support may come from pre - holiday demand, but long - term supply pressure is significant. The strategy is to short on rebounds for the 06 contract and take a bearish view on the 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm oil**: The production increase in Malaysia is greater than the export increase, and inventory is expected to accumulate. The 07 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term. In China, the inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May to June [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA report is positive, and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US is also positive, but the upside of US soybeans is limited. In China, the inventory is expected to increase due to large imports from May to July [5]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening, and the ICE rapeseed is expected to rebound. In China, the inventory is high, but if the supply tightens, the inventory may gradually decrease [6]. Soybean Meal - The price of US soybeans rebounded on May 12. In the short - term, the domestic price is expected to fall due to increased supply, but in the long - term, it may be strong due to cost and weather factors. The strategy is to go short in the short - term and long in the long - term for the 09 contract [8]. Corn - On May 12, the price in some regions increased, while in others it decreased. In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced supply from farmers, but the upside is limited by demand. In the long - term, the price may rise but is restricted by substitutes. The strategy is to go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - Provides the closing prices, price changes of various futures and spot products on May 12, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格大幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 50 元/吨，10 合约基差 118（-10），中美会谈成果超预期，双 方大幅互降关税，市场预期明显好转。国内政策方面，5 月 7 日，三部 门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过盘面高 开低走，市场仍在期待财政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需 双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影 响，需求是否已经开始季节性回落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方 面，螺纹钢期货价格仍低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱 动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政 策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关 注需求变化，低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 2025/5/13 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 张佩云 ◆ 铁矿石 周一，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，盘面向上回调。供给方面，全球发 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global trade tension has further eased, and metal prices are gradually returning to the fundamental logic. Different metals have different trends due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [1][2][3][5][6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, nickel prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and tin prices are expected to have increased volatility [1][2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Metals - **Copper**: As of May 12, the Shanghai copper main contract 06 rose 0.77% to 78,260 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US trade agreement, the copper price returned to the fundamental logic. With the TC of copper concentrate decreasing, the smelting output may decline, and the consumption is stable but affected by the high monthly spread. It is recommended to trade cautiously in the range of 74,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of May 12, the Shanghai aluminum main contract 06 rose 1.66% to 19,910 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is increasing and the price is falling. The alumina production capacity is in a state of complex change, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's starting rate has increased slightly, but there is a weakening expectation. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be strong [2]. - **Nickel**: As of May 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract 06 rose 2% to 126,130 yuan/ton. The inflation in the US has cooled down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI has declined. The nickel supply is in an over - supply situation, and it is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - **Tin**: As of May 12, the Shanghai tin main contract 06 rose 0.89% to 263,200 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production may decrease, and the supply of tin ore is tight. With the expected resumption of production in the mining end, the price volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: The domestic spot copper price rose, but the spot market transaction was light, with downstream enterprises maintaining rigid demand [7]. - **Aluminum**: The spot aluminum market stabilized from a weak state. The holders were willing to ship, and the downstream rigid demand supported the transaction. The afternoon trading became lighter [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina was stable with a small increase, but the trading volume was weak [9]. - **Zinc**: The spot zinc market was affected by shipment pressure and imported goods, with high spot premiums but light trading [10][11]. - **Lead**: The spot lead market was mainly for rigid demand from downstream merchants, and the trading activity needed to be improved [12][13]. - **Nickel**: As the nickel price rebounded to a high level, the spot market was cautious and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [14]. - **Tin**: In the spot tin market, some merchants were waiting and watching, and the overall transaction was weak [15]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: The copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons; the aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,899 tons to 62,114 tons; the zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,903 tons; the lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 40,961 tons; the nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 23,222 tons; the tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 8,331 tons [17]. - **LME**: The copper inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 190,750 tons; the tin inventory increased by 85 tons to 2,790 tons; the lead inventory decreased by 1,625 tons to 251,800 tons; the zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 169,850 tons; the aluminum inventory decreased by 2,025 tons to 401,525 tons; the nickel inventory increased by 84 tons to 197,754 tons [17].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡偏强 现货方面：PT ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various energy and chemical products are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic conditions, and tariff policies. Different products show different trends in the short and medium - term, with some expected to be in a low - level shock state, while others are more likely to be short - term supported but face supply pressure in the medium - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - **Price Information**: On May 12, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4836 yuan/ton (+31), the Changzhou market price was 4650 yuan/ton (-10), the main basis was - 186 yuan/ton (+41), the Guangzhou market price was 4750 yuan/ton (0), and the Hangzhou market price was 4700 yuan/ton (-30) [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the long - term, demand is sluggish due to the real - estate drag, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, and inventory is still high. It is in a state of loose supply - demand [2]. - **Macro - factors**: China and the US will reduce tariffs on each other's goods within 90 days. The short - term tariff relaxation exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. The domestic first - quarter data is good, and there may be some support for exports in the second quarter. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price Information**: On May 12, the main SH09 contract closed at 2545 yuan/ton (+69), the Shandong market mainstream price was 830 yuan/ton (+10), and the converted 100% price was 2594 yuan/ton (+31). The liquid chlorine price in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton (-50). From May 13, a Shandong alumina manufacturer raised the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the short - term, production reduction and tariff relaxation provide support. In the medium - term, supply is still relatively sufficient, and demand growth is limited. The 09 contract is still mainly short - biased in the medium - term [3]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production and export, the possible support of weak liquid chlorine prices for caustic soda, and the scale and continuity of maintenance from June to August [3]. Rubber - **Price Information**: On May 12, rubber was running strongly. As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45 tons and an increase of 0.73%. There are also detailed price data for raw materials, finished products, and basis differences [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the short - term, the supply of latex is slow, and the raw material price remains high, providing bottom support for the rubber price. The inventory in Qingdao is slightly increasing, and the market is expected to fluctuate [4]. Urea - **Price Information**: The main urea contract fell 0.26% to close at 1897 yuan/ton. The daily average price in the Henan market increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1918 yuan/ton, and the daily average price in the Shandong market increased by 68 yuan/ton to 1916 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is stable, with a daily output of 19.5 - 200,000 tons. The demand for rice fertilization in the south and corn base fertilization in the north will be concentrated, and there is also some elasticity in exports. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock state in the short - term [6]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer, urea plant production reduction and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [6]. Methanol - **Price Information**: The main methanol contract rose 1.79% to close at 2270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is expected to continue to increase, while downstream demand is wait - and - see. It is expected that the decline will slow down, and the reference range for the 09 contract is 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin start - up, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [8]. Plastic - **Price Information**: On May 12, the main plastic contract rose 1.08% to close at 7090 yuan/ton. There are also price data for different types of plastics [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In April, the plastic price dropped significantly due to tariffs. The supply side has new capacity in the second quarter, and the demand side is weak. The inventory of upstream enterprises and traders has increased, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [9]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易政策谈判在即，价格延续震荡 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 ...

黑色：低估值弱驱动 价格震荡运行 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 张佩云 执业编号：F03090752 投资咨询号：Z0019837 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 白天霖 执业编号：F03138690 主要观点 上周螺纹钢价格偏弱运行，现货与期货跌幅相当，基差窄幅波动。宏观方面，5月7日，三部门发布一揽子金融政 策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过盘面高开低走，市场仍在期待财政政策发力，当地时间5月10日上午，中美 经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局有转差迹象， 当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始季节性回落还需进一步观察。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计中 美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需 求季节性下滑，市场预期偏弱，低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。 交易策略 观望或者短线交易。 01 螺纹 ...

目 录 01 豆粕：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 01 豆粕：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-05-12 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 联 系 人：姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 01 02 油脂：供应压力仍存，期价反弹受限 豆粕 ：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 ◆ 期现端：截止5月9日，华东现货报价3110元/吨，周度下跌190元/吨，M2509合约收盘至2899元/吨，周度下跌21元/吨，基差报价09+200元/吨，周度 下跌150元/吨。周度豆粕价格偏弱运行，随着大豆到港增加，油厂开机率上扬以及备货结束，大豆豆粕进入累库周期，现货价格快速回落。M2509合约受 到港压制以及供应压力后移影响，价格走势偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：5月美豆UDSA供需报告即将公布，市场预估25/26年度美豆种植面积维持在8350万英亩；单产方面，市场维持52.5蒲/英亩。但受中美贸易摩擦 影响，预计本次报告下调美豆出口上调国内压榨。当前美豆主产区天气良好，利于大豆播种，截至5月4日美豆已完成 30%的播种率，单周推进了 ...

关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 股指或震荡偏强，国债短 期看好 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 股指策略建议 p 策略展望：震荡偏强。 01 金融期货策略建议 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏，地缘政治 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：周内本周A股宽基指数周涨幅大多为正数，上证指数上涨1.92%。 p 核心观点：日本首相石破茂重申"零关税" ，要求美国全面取消汽车关税。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理何立峰出席新闻发布会表示，中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展，中美双方将尽快敲定 相关细节，并将于5月12日发布会谈达成的联合声明。中国4月CPI同比降0.1%、与上月持平，PPI同 比降幅扩大至2.7%。人民日报刊文：加快解放和发展新质战斗力。中美双方将发布联合声明，贸易战 对经 ...